就在上周五（8月22日），美联储主席鲍威尔在杰克逊霍尔全球央行年会上的讲话，彻底点燃了全球市 场的狂欢按钮——道琼斯工业指数单日飙升2.2%创下历史新高，标普500指数上涨1.52%，纳斯达克综 合指数也大涨1.88%，连一向对政策敏感的2年期美债收益率都直线跳水近10个基点至3.69%，美元指数 更是单日下挫0.94%！ 这一切的引爆点，正是鲍威尔那句"风险平衡的转变可能需要调整政策立场"的表态。要知道，就在讲话 前一天（8月21日），美股还在五连跌的阴霾里——标普500指数连跌五天，纳指三连跌，市场都在屏息 等待这场"央行界春晚"的信号。结果话音刚落，利率期货市场瞬间把9月降息25个基点的概率从75%飙 升到了91.3%，几乎笃定"降息大局已定"。 今天我们就来拆解这场狂欢背后的关键问题： 1. 鲍威尔的讲话究竟释放了哪些"鸽派密码"？ 2. 为什么市场会如此激进地押注9月降息？ 3. 当美股、债市、黄金集体上涨的狂欢过后，又有哪些被忽略的风险信号？ 毕竟，从历史规律看，美联储政策转向从来不是单向直线——这次"风险平衡的转变"，真的会如市场所 愿开启降息周期吗？狂欢之下，或许藏着更值得警惕的答案。 鲍威尔 ...

Group 1 - Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole conference indicated a shift towards a more dovish stance compared to previous years, which has led to significant market reactions globally [1][20] - Powell highlighted the risks in the employment market and suggested that while inflation risks remain, the impact of tariffs on inflation is more "one-time" in nature, providing a clear indication for a potential rate cut in September [20][11] - The market responded with notable volatility, including a decline in U.S. Treasury yields, an increase in gold prices, a drop in the U.S. dollar index, and a rise in U.S. stock markets [11][13][14][18] Group 2 - The dovish shift from Powell is expected to provide more room for interest rate cuts in China, potentially leading to a more accommodative monetary policy [20] - The U.S. stock market is anticipated to remain strong in the short term due to the significant liquidity injection, although concerns about the long-term implications of the U.S. national balance sheet remain [21][23] - Investors are advised to be cautious with long-term U.S. Treasury bonds and consider short-term bonds for better value, as the political pressures influencing Powell's decisions may have delayed effects on inflation [23][21]

Group 1 - The core argument of the article is that the U.S. is strategically differentiating its approach towards India and China, particularly in the context of tariffs and sanctions related to Russian oil imports [1][3][19] - U.S. Vice President Vance indicated that the U.S. is not imposing similar sanctions on China as it has on India due to the high existing tariffs on China and the need for negotiation to end the trade war [5][11][12] - The economic interdependence between the U.S. and China complicates the imposition of sanctions, as both countries rely on each other for various goods and services, making such actions potentially self-damaging for the U.S. [6][10][11] Group 2 - The U.S. has recently canceled 91% of the tariffs imposed during the trade war, highlighting the economic damage both countries have suffered [7] - The U.S. agricultural sector, particularly in states like Iowa, is heavily reliant on the Chinese market for exports, indicating that any sanctions could lead to significant economic repercussions [7][8] - The U.S. is using tariffs on India as a strategic tool to pressure India into shifting its military procurement from Russia to the U.S., given India's heavy reliance on Russian arms [15][19] Group 3 - The article discusses India's response to U.S. tariffs, including efforts to settle oil transactions in rupees and plans to resell refined Russian oil to Europe, showcasing India's attempts to navigate the geopolitical landscape [21] - The U.S. is perceived to be selectively enforcing sanctions, focusing on India while ignoring larger Russian oil trade with Europe, which raises questions about the fairness of U.S. actions [21][15] - The overall dynamic reflects a broader geopolitical struggle where the U.S. seeks to balance its relationships with both India and China while managing its own economic interests [19][21]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the Federal Reserve is likely to cut interest rates in September, marking a significant shift towards a global low-interest-rate environment, which will have substantial impacts on various asset classes including U.S. Treasuries, gold, foreign exchange, and China's real estate and stock markets [2][5][11] - Powell's recent statements indicate a pivot from a hawkish to a dovish stance, suggesting that the Fed may prioritize employment concerns over inflation, leading to a near certainty of a rate cut in September [5][9] - The change in Powell's position is attributed to two main factors: continuous pressure from President Trump and alarming employment data that revealed a significant slowdown in job growth, prompting the Fed to reconsider its monetary policy [7][9] Group 2 - The market reacted positively to the news of a potential rate cut, with major U.S. stock indices and gold prices experiencing significant increases, indicating a bullish sentiment in global capital markets [4][11] - The anticipated 25 basis point rate cut in September is expected to further devalue the U.S. dollar, which could stimulate global economic recovery and encourage capital to flow into emerging markets [11][12] - The historical context of the Fed's previous rate cuts in September 2018 suggests that a similar response from China could follow, potentially leading to a series of economic stimulus measures that would enhance growth prospects [14][15]

【韩国央行周四政策会议大概率连续二次维持利率不变】韩国央行在周四政策会议上，很可能连续第二 次维持利率不变。调查27位学家显示，20位预计利率不变，7位预测会降息。 高盛学家Goohoon Kwon 等称，若温和维持利率不变，韩国央行可监测家庭债务趋势、评估财政刺激效果及追踪美联储政策立 场。高盛预计10月降息。 多数学家预计，韩国央行会略上调2025年国内生产总值和通胀预测，因二季 度增长数据强于预期。 本文由 AI算法生成，仅作参考，不涉投资建议，使用风险自担 ...

Group 1 - The US stock market experienced a rebound after Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell indicated an openness to interest rate cuts, with the Dow Jones rising by 1.53% and the S&P 500 increasing by 0.26% while the Nasdaq fell by 0.58% [1] - International oil prices saw a significant increase due to ongoing geopolitical tensions and a notable reduction in US crude oil inventories, with West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil rising by 1.37% and Brent crude increasing by 2.85% [1] - International gold prices rose by over 1% as investors bought on dips following previous declines, supported by expectations of interest rate cuts and a weaker dollar [1] Group 2 - The upcoming release of the US July Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index is anticipated to be a key focus, with economists predicting a month-over-month increase of 0.3% and a year-over-year rise to 2.9% [1] - Citigroup analysts suggest that the impact of tariff policies on US consumer prices may be delayed, with a potential year-over-year increase in the PCE price index reaching 3.2% in the fourth quarter [1] - Several technology companies, including Nvidia, HP, Marvell Technology, and Dell Technologies, are set to release their latest earnings reports this week, which are expected to significantly influence the AI industry and the performance of the tech sector in the US stock market [1]

Group 1: Silver Futures Market - Silver futures are currently trading above 9367, with an opening price of 9168 per kilogram, and a current price of 9374, reflecting a 1.67% increase [1] - The highest price reached today was 9418 per kilogram, while the lowest was 9152 per kilogram, indicating a bullish short-term trend in the silver futures market [1] - The Shanghai silver market shows a strong upward trend, opening around 9410, with potential to rise to 9550 if the momentum continues [6] Group 2: Federal Reserve Policy Insights - Jerome Powell, the Chairman of the Federal Reserve, opened the door for a potential rate cut in September, citing the need to adjust policy in response to changing economic risks [3] - Powell highlighted that inflation risks are skewed to the upside, with tariff-related inflation pressures becoming more evident [3] - The recent non-farm payroll report indicated that the U.S. economy added 73,000 jobs last month, with downward revisions of approximately 250,000 jobs for May and June, suggesting a slowdown in job growth [4]

在通胀问题上，鲍威尔进一步表示，美联储"不会允许价格水平的一次性上涨演变为持续的通胀问题"。 在7月31日结束的最新一次政策会议上，美联储将利率维持在4.25%-4.50%的区间不变。 上周五鲍威尔发表上述言论后，美国股市大幅上涨。芝加哥商品交易所集团(CMEGroup)的数据显示， 受讲话直接影响，市场对9月降息的概率预期飙升至90%以上。美国国债收益率也随之走低。 周一（8月25日）亚洲时段，美元小幅上涨，最新美元指数报97.91，涨幅0.20%，两年期美债收益升3个 基点至3.709%，市场聚焦本周五将公布的美国核心PCE物价指数。 美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔(JeromePowell)上周五为9月降息敞开大门。他在杰克逊霍尔发表讲话时表 示，"基准前景及不断变化的风险平衡，可能有必要调整我们的政策立场。" 鲍威尔的讲话既涉及经济前景，也提及美联储新的政策框架。他特意指出，通胀风险仍"偏向上行"，并 表示与关税相关的通胀压力"如今已清晰显现"。 "我们预计这些影响将在未来几个月逐步累积，"鲍威尔称，"但其时间节点和影响幅度存在高度不确定 性。对货币政策而言，关键问题在于这些价格上涨是否可能显著增加通胀问题 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - Iron ore's short - term valuation is still supported by macro and micro factors [2][4]. - Rebar, hot - rolled coil, ferrosilicon, silicomanganese, coke, and coking coal are expected to have wide - range fluctuations [2][7][8][12][15]. - Logs are expected to fluctuate repeatedly [2][18]. Summaries by Related Catalogs Iron Ore - **Fundamental Data**: Futures price closed at 770 yuan/ton, down 2.5 yuan or 0.32%, and the position increased by 1,051 lots to 452,625 lots. Imported ore prices generally declined, and some domestic ore prices remained stable. Basis and spreads had various changes [4]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Activity at the SimFer mine site is suspended due to a fatal incident. Fed Chair Powell indicated a possible September rate cut [5]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity is 2, indicating a strong bullish view [6]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Fundamental Data**: Rebar RB2510 closed at 3,119 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan or 0.35%, with a position decrease of 46,508 lots. Hot - rolled coil HC2510 closed at 3,361 yuan/ton, down 29 yuan or 0.86%, with a position decrease of 49,335 lots. Spot prices mostly declined, and basis and spreads also changed [8]. - **Macro and Industry News**: In the week of August 21, rebar production decreased by 5.8 tons, hot - rolled coil production increased by 9.65 tons. In July, national crude steel production was 79.66 million tons, down 4.0% year - on - year [9][10]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity for both rebar and hot - rolled coil is 0, indicating a neutral view [10]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Fundamental Data**: Ferrosilicon 2511 closed at 5,642 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan. Silicomanganese 2511 closed at 5,820 yuan/ton, unchanged. Spot prices and various spreads had different changes [12]. - **Macro and Industry News**: On August 22, silicon 72 and 75 prices in different regions were reported, and silicon manganese 6517 prices decreased. From January to July, the average monthly import of South African manganese ore increased by 6.71% year - on - year [13]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity for both ferrosilicon and silicomanganese is 0, indicating a neutral view [14]. Coke and Coking Coal - **Fundamental Data**: Coking coal JM2601 closed at 1,162 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan. Coke J2601 closed at 1,678.5 yuan/ton, up 14.5 yuan. Spot prices and basis had various changes [15]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Fed Chair Powell indicated a possible September rate cut [16]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity for both coke and coking coal is 0, indicating a neutral view [17]. Logs - **Fundamental Data**: The 2509 contract's closing price decreased by 0.4% daily and 1.2% weekly. The 2511 contract's trading volume increased by 49.2% daily and 70% weekly. Spot prices of most log types remained stable [19]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Fed Chair Powell indicated a possible September rate cut [21]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity is 1, indicating a moderately bullish view [21].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint highlights that despite ongoing inflation risks, gold prices surged significantly following Powell's dovish remarks, with a 90% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve before September [1] - Upcoming key data releases include durable goods orders, GDP, and the core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, which is favored by the Federal Reserve [1] - Powell indicated that stable unemployment and labor market indicators allow for cautious policy adjustments, despite the current restrictive policy stance [1] Group 2 - Analyst Felix noted that while gold prices rose, they have not yet surpassed the $3,400 per ounce mark, with geopolitical risks easing after optimistic news regarding Russia and Ukraine [1] - If gold prices rise above $3,400, the next resistance levels would be the June 16 high of $3,452 and the historical high of $3,500 [1] - Analyst Chad suggested that if gold prices retract, they may find support at the 50-day simple moving average around $3,350 per ounce, with further targets at the 20-day moving average of $3,345 and the 100-day moving average of $3,309 [2] Group 3 - The daily chart for gold (XAUUSD) shows a bullish bias with resistance at $3,367 and support at $3,357, indicating strong momentum [3] - The daily chart for the euro against the dollar (EURUSD) also reflects a bullish direction, with resistance at 1.1678 and support at 1.1678 [4] - Key indicators to watch today include the German IFO Business Climate Index, U.S. new home sales, and the Dallas Fed Business Activity Index [4]