Group 1 - The diversification of AI workloads is driving rapid growth in the custom chip market, with an expected market size of $94 billion by 2028 and a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 35% from 2023 to 2028, particularly in the custom computing and interconnect markets [1] - AI inference demand is reaching a turning point, with agent-based AI expected to be a core driver for the next phase of AI development, while computing power resources remain a major bottleneck for AI innovation, leading to significant investments in self-developed ASIC chips by major companies [1] - AI infrastructure requires synchronized innovations in computing, storage, and networking systems, with capital expenditure (capex) investments and upgrades being a definitive trend, benefiting the optical devices and modules sector due to increased demand from AI inference [1] Group 2 - The domestic computing power landscape remains robust, with breakthroughs in large model capabilities or applications expected to drive increased capex investments from major companies [1] - The theme of self-sufficiency is prevalent, with the expansion of the Ascend industrial chain's production capacity and yield improvements positively impacting the performance of related upstream and downstream companies [1] - The communication ETF tracks a communication equipment index compiled by China Securities Index Co., which selects listed companies involved in communication equipment manufacturing and related services from the A-share market, reflecting the overall performance of quality enterprises in the communication technology and network equipment sectors [1]

Group 1 - Xiaomi has announced the launch of its luxury high-performance SUV, the Xiaomi YU7, scheduled for release on June 26, which has generated significant market interest and led to a rise in stock prices for Xiaomi and other tech companies [1] - The Hong Kong Technology 50 ETF (159750) has seen a strong performance, with a year-to-date increase of 50%, outperforming the Hang Seng Technology Index by 10 percentage points [1][3] - The ETF tracks the "Ten Giants" of Hong Kong technology, which includes major companies like Alibaba, Tencent, and Xiaomi, accounting for 70% of the index's weight [3] Group 2 - The current price-to-earnings ratio of the Hong Kong Technology Index is approximately 20.25, which is considered low compared to historical data, indicating potential for long-term investment opportunities [3] - The Hong Kong Technology 50 ETF has benefited from favorable policies in sectors like semiconductors and AI, with a recommendation for investors to consider dollar-cost averaging strategies to mitigate short-term volatility [5][9] - The Hong Kong Dividend Low Volatility ETF (520550) has shown a consistent upward trend since April, with a year-to-date increase of 16.18%, indicating strong performance in the dividend sector [5]

[Table_Date] 2025 年 06 月 23 日 [Table_Title] 资产配置日报：主线未明 [Table_Title2] 复盘与思考: 6 月 23 日，权益行情迎来反弹，银行和小微盘显著上涨，"哑铃型"的市场结构再度回归；债市收益率先下 后上，整体延续窄幅震荡格局，各期限单日变化不到 0.5bp。 复盘各类资产表现，股市，大盘股指翻红，上证指数、沪深 300、中证红利分别上涨 0.65%、0.29%、 0.25%；国内科技板块小幅反弹，科创 50、创业板指分别上涨 0.38%、0.39%，港股的恒生科技上涨 1.05%；小微 盘明显上涨，中证 1000、万得微盘股指上涨 1.31%、2.38%。债市，10 年国债活跃券收益率小幅上行 0.2bp，30 年国债活跃券持平于 1.84%；10 年、30 年国债期货主力合约小幅下跌 0.01%、0.04%。 中东地缘政治局势继续扰动国际大宗商品市场，原油价格高开低走，黄金表现平淡。周日（6 月 22 日）， "美国攻击伊朗核设施"及"伊朗议会提议关闭霍尔木兹海峡"等消息持续发酵，全球避险情绪一度急剧升温。 受此推动，今日开盘后美国 WTI 原油 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent U.S. military strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities, highlighting the geopolitical implications and market reactions in Asia, particularly in the A-share market. Group 1: U.S. Military Action - The U.S. launched a surprise attack on Iran, utilizing 6 B-2 bombers to drop 12 GBU-57A/B bombs weighing 13.6 tons on the Fordow nuclear facility, and fired 30 Tomahawk missiles from submarines at Natanz and Isfahan [1][3]. - Trump announced the completion of the strikes on social media, claiming that the Fordow facility no longer exists [3]. - Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu stated that the U.S. strikes were coordinated with Israel [4]. Group 2: Iranian Response - Iran claimed to have evacuated the three nuclear facilities prior to the attack, stating that only the above-ground parts of Fordow were damaged and can be repaired [5]. - A humorous commentary emerged, suggesting that all parties involved claimed victory after the strikes [6]. Group 3: Market Reactions - Following the military actions, the A-share market showed resilience, with over 4,200 stocks rising and 71 hitting the daily limit up, indicating a recovery in market sentiment [7]. - Key sectors that performed well included stablecoins, shipping oil and gas, semiconductors, and solid-state batteries, while a few sectors like pork and liquor saw declines [9]. - The article emphasizes the need to focus on sectors that are relatively immune to the Iran-Israel conflict, such as semiconductors, stablecoins, and solid-state batteries [9].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that Goldman Sachs identifies a group of ten prominent Chinese private enterprises, termed "Prominent 10," which are emerging as core assets in the Chinese stock market, comparable to the US "Mag 7" in terms of market position and competitiveness [1][4][12] - The Prominent 10 includes major companies across technology, consumer, and manufacturing sectors, collectively valued at $1.6 trillion, representing 42% of the MSCI China Index, with an average daily trading volume of $11 billion [1][4] - The expected compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for the earnings of the Prominent 10 from 2025 to 2027 is projected to be 13%, with a current price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 16 times, indicating both growth and valuation advantages [1][4] Group 2 - In comparison to the US Mag 7, the Prominent 10 has a total market capitalization of $1.6 trillion, which is only 8.3% of the Mag 7's $19.2 trillion, yet the Prominent 10 has shown an average return on equity of 17% over the past five years, close to the Mag 7's 39% [4][6] - The Prominent 10's P/E ratio stands at 16 times, significantly lower than the Mag 7's 28.5 times, suggesting a valuation advantage, while their research and capital expenditure as a percentage of revenue is 15%, indicating potential for technological investment [4][6] Group 3 - The Prominent 10 has demonstrated growth in key areas such as new energy (BYD), AIoT (Xiaomi), and local services (Meituan), aligning with China's themes of "self-control" and "consumption upgrade," while the Mag 7 relies more on technological monopolies [6][12] - The Prominent 10's stock prices have increased by 54% since the end of 2022, outperforming the MSCI China Index by 8 percentage points in the current year [12] Group 4 - Goldman Sachs employs a three-tiered screening framework to identify the Prominent 10, focusing on industry concentration, company competitiveness, and institutional ratings, ensuring that only companies with significant market share and high R&D/capital expenditure intensity are included [9][12] - For instance, Tencent holds a 79% profit share in the interactive media sector, while Meituan captures 80% of the local service revenue [9][12] Group 5 - The Prominent 10's market dominance is evidenced by significant metrics: Tencent has over 1.2 billion monthly active users in social networking, a 65% market share in gaming, and a 89% penetration rate in digital payments [12][13] - R&D investment for the Prominent 10 averages 9% over the past five years, with specific companies like Hengrui Medicine at 29% and BYD at 13% for capital expenditure, indicating strong commitment to innovation and capacity expansion [13] Group 6 - The article concludes that the Prominent 10 represents three major investment themes in China's economic transformation: technological breakthroughs (BYD in new energy, Xiaomi in AIoT), consumption upgrades (Anta in high-end sports, Meituan in service consumption), and globalization benefits (Tencent in gaming, Alibaba in Southeast Asian e-commerce) [14]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the significant advancements in domestic photolithography materials, particularly photolithography resins, which are crucial for semiconductor manufacturing. The domestic market is increasingly replacing foreign suppliers, with companies like Tongcheng New Materials leading the charge in this transformation [1][3]. Group 1: Importance of Photolithography - Photolithography is essential in semiconductor manufacturing, acting as both the blueprint and template for chip production. It accounts for one-third of manufacturing costs and 40%-60% of production time [3][5]. - Previously dominated by foreign companies, the market for photolithography materials is seeing a shift, with domestic production rates for i-line photolithography resins exceeding 60%, KrF over 30%, and ArF surpassing 10% [5][6]. Group 2: Domestic Market Dynamics - The domestic photolithography resin market is characterized by a multi-polar competitive landscape, unlike the monopolistic nature of photolithography machines, which are primarily produced by ASML [6][7]. - The domestic chemical industry has a strong supply chain advantage, supported by government funding and investments, enabling companies like Tongcheng New Materials to invest heavily in R&D [6][8]. Group 3: Tongcheng New Materials' Competitive Edge - Tongcheng New Materials has established a comprehensive product line across various photolithography resin categories, allowing it to capture a significant market share and generate revenue growth [8][9]. - The company has seen a substantial increase in its customer base, with major semiconductor manufacturers like SMIC and Changjiang Storage increasingly adopting its products [9][10]. Group 4: Financial Performance and Investment Strategy - In 2024, Tongcheng New Materials is projected to achieve a net profit of 517 million, with 61% of this profit coming from long-term equity investments, particularly in Zhongce Rubber [13][14]. - The strategic investment in Zhongce Rubber not only provides stable returns but also strengthens the company's position in the supply chain, ensuring a steady revenue stream [13][14]. Group 5: Future Growth Potential - The company is well-positioned for future growth, with significant market opportunities in high-end photolithography resins and a robust production capacity expansion plan [15][16]. - The ability to produce key materials in-house, such as resin for ArF photolithography, will further enhance its competitive position and reduce reliance on foreign suppliers [15][16].

Group 1 - The defense and aerospace equipment industry is benefiting from industrial upgrades and the trend of self-control, with core equipment localization being the foundation for the industry's independent rise [1] - Demand-side opportunities arise from the growth of emerging markets and rising exports, focusing on leading companies in competitive niche sectors [1] - On the supply side, stock updates and import substitution are key, with sectors like shipbuilding, rail transit equipment, and nuclear power equipment benefiting from stock updates or counter-cyclical adjustments, showing relatively stable prosperity [1] Group 2 - In the nuclear power equipment sector, the third generation of nuclear power has entered the stage of mass construction, and the demonstration of the fourth generation of nuclear power has officially commenced operation, indicating promising future mass construction [1] - The gas turbine industry is entering a global renewal cycle, benefiting from incremental demand brought by AI data centers, showing a clear upward trend in prosperity [1] - The overall valuation level of the industry remains relatively stable, with a long-term positive outlook on structural opportunities brought by high-end equipment self-control and export development [1] Group 3 - The military ETF (512660) tracks the CSI Military Industry Index (399967), which is compiled by the China Securities Index Company, selecting listed companies in the defense and military industry from the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets [1] - This index reflects the overall performance of listed companies in China's military industry, characterized by significant industry concentration and growth potential [1]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market," indicating that the industry index is expected to perform better than the market by more than 5% over the next six months [30]. Core Insights - The revenue of the top five enterprise SSD brands decreased in Q1 2025 due to inventory destocking and challenges in AI product assembly, with average selling prices dropping nearly 20%. However, a recovery is anticipated in Q2 2025 driven by increased demand for AI infrastructure and new chip shipments from NVIDIA [2][3]. - The Shanghai Institute of Optics and Fine Mechanics has made significant progress in ultra-high parallel optical computing integrated chips, which could enhance computing density and performance, paving the way for low-power, low-latency, high-performance optical computers [6][7]. - BOE Technology Group announced plans to acquire a 30% stake in Rainbow Optoelectronics for a base price of 4.849 billion yuan, with the total equity valuation of Rainbow Optoelectronics estimated at 16.8 billion yuan [11][12]. Summary by Sections SSD Market Overview - The top five enterprise SSD brands experienced a significant revenue decline in Q1 2025, with Samsung, SK Group, Micron, Kioxia, and SanDisk reporting revenues of $1,889 million, $993.7 million, $852 million, $566.4 million, and $232 million respectively, reflecting quarter-over-quarter declines of 34.9%, 56.8%, 27.3%, 21.8%, and no change [4]. - The total revenue for the top five brands was $4,533.1 million, accounting for 95.1% of the market share [4]. Optical Computing Advances - The new optical computing chip system developed by the Shanghai Institute integrates multi-wavelength light sources and programmable optical computing algorithms, achieving a parallelism greater than 100 and a theoretical peak computing power of over 2560 TOPS with a power efficiency of over 3.2 TOPS/W [7]. Market Trends and Recommendations - The semiconductor manufacturing sector is benefiting from a clear trend towards domestic substitution, with ongoing investments in AI terminals expected to drive a new wave of demand for chips. Recommended companies include North Huachuang, Tuojing Technology, Huahai Qingshi, and others [25][29].

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook for the AI/AR glasses industry and related supply chains, indicating a strong growth potential in the second half of the year [1][4]. Core Insights - Meta's launch of the AI glasses Oakley Meta HSTN is expected to drive deep applications in sports like skiing and cycling, with significant hardware upgrades and AI functionalities [1][5]. - The demand for AI-PCB is projected to grow significantly, driven by the increasing orders from multiple AI-PCB companies and the expansion of domestic copper-clad laminate manufacturers [1][4]. - The semiconductor industry is experiencing a recovery, with strong growth expected in the storage segment due to rising demand from cloud computing and consumer electronics [21][23]. Summary by Sections Consumer Electronics - Meta and Oakley's new AI glasses are set to enhance the application of AI in sports, with features like 8-hour battery life and 3K video resolution [1][5]. - The report anticipates a new wave of innovation in AI consumer electronics, particularly in AR glasses [5]. PCB Industry - The PCB industry is showing signs of accelerated growth, particularly in the copper-clad laminate sector, with expectations of significant quarter-on-quarter growth [7][4]. - The report highlights the positive outlook for the PCB industry, driven by demand from home appliances, automotive, and AI applications [7]. Semiconductor Industry - The storage segment is expected to see a price increase due to reduced supply and increased demand from cloud computing and consumer electronics [21][23]. - The report emphasizes the importance of domestic semiconductor equipment and materials in light of global supply chain challenges [24][28]. Key Companies - Companies like Nvidia, which are actively increasing orders for AI-related products, are expected to benefit significantly from the growing demand for AI-PCB and computing hardware [32][33]. - Domestic semiconductor equipment manufacturers are positioned to gain market share due to the ongoing trend of localization and self-sufficiency in the semiconductor supply chain [35][36].

强于大市 化工行业周报 20250622 国际油价、丁二烯、 PTA 价格上涨 今年以来，行业受关税相关政策、原油价格大幅波动等因素影响较大，六月份建议关注：1、安 全监管政策、行业供给端变化等对农药及中间体行业的影响；2、上半年'抢出口'等因素带来 的部分公司业绩波动；3、自主可控日益关键背景下的电子材料公司；4、分红派息政策稳健的 能源企业等。 行业动态 投资建议 截至 6 月 22 日，SW 基础化工市盈率（TTM 剔除负值）为 21.72 倍，处在历史（2002 年至 今）的 65.55%分位数；市净率为 1.85 倍，处在历史水平的 25.95%分位数。SW 石油石化市 盈率（TTM 剔除负值）为 11.37 倍，处在历史（2002 年至今）的 23.02%分位数；市净率为 1.18 倍，处在历史水平的 24.58%分位数。今年以来，行业受关税相关政策、原油价格大幅 波动等因素影响较大，六月份建议关注：1、安全监管政策、行业供给端变化等对农药及中 间体行业的影响；2、上半年'抢出口'等因素带来的部分公司业绩波动；3、自主可控日益 关键背景下的电子材料公司；4、分红派息政策稳健的能源企业等。中长期推荐 ...