据环球时报援引彭博社报道，由于中美贸易紧张局势不断升级，中国炼油企业对美国石油的采购量大幅削减了90%，转而以空前规模从加拿大进口原油。报 道称，加拿大西部的跨山管道扩建项目（TMX）去年投入商业运作，为中国和其他东亚石油进口国获取艾伯塔省油砂区的丰富原油储备拓展了渠道。报道 引述货物跟踪和分析公司Vortexa Ltd.的数据称，今年3月，从跨山管道终点附近的温哥华港运往中国的原油进口量飙升至前所未有的730万桶，这一数字有望 在4月进一步上升。 特朗普（资料图） 同时，澳大利亚的谷饲牛肉在中国需求激增。2月和3月对华出口量同比增长近40%，而美国对华相关贸易陷入停滞。美国农业人士表示，今年大豆、小麦、 玉米或高粱的出口量非常有限。由于关税削弱了利润率，许多中国粮商已经停止从美国进口。巴西本周将接待由中国农业农村部高层人员组成的代表团，双 方将重点讨论巴西大豆和牛肉等农产品的出口。 特朗普（资料图） 中国石油企业协会 17 日发布的《中国油气产业发展分析与展望报告蓝皮书》，由多个单位研究人员联合编研。 2024 年，我国原油进口量为 5.53 亿吨，同 比下降 1.9%，进口格局多元且不均衡，来源地集中在中 ...

第一：国际油价突然大跌 5月5日，国际原油期货价格突然大跌，WTI原油、布伦特原油、美原油跌幅一度扩大至5%。 消息面上，主要产油国将连续两个月超预期增产。欧佩克发表声明说，8个成员国决定自今年6月起日均 增产41.1万桶。这将是其连续第二个月以高于预期的幅度增产石油。 不过油价大跌的主要推手还是美国的经济不明朗和贸易摩擦所致，经济不好，油价打击很大。 第二：本周是美联储将公布最新利率 五一假期已经接近尾声了，估计不少朋友都在返程工作地的路上，或者已经到了。 我昨天已经在主战场了，想到未来即将开启的波澜壮阔事业，内心稍有激动。人只有为梦想而奋斗，才 活得有意义。 第三：离岸人民币继续大涨 5月2日，离岸人民币兑美元暴涨近1%。今天开盘，再度飙升。两个交易日最大涨幅接近900点。 同时，A50指数走势也相当不错，联想起周五中概的大涨，看来明天开盘，A股应该不会太弱。 第四：迎接周二开盘 北京时间周四凌晨，美联储将公布最新利率决议，市场预计其继续按兵不动。 美联储5月维持利率不变的概率为96.8%，降息25个基点的概率为3.2%。美联储到6月维持利率不变的概 率为63.3%。 近期美国经济数据还算不错，非农人口、 ...

A 股策略周报 20250505 暗藏的变化 2025 年 05 月 05 日 ➢ "对等关税"后的资产表现：欧美股市>中国权益资产、需求侧商品。自 4 月 2 日美国实施"对等关税"以来，全球风险资产大多呈现"V"型走势，截至 5 月 2 日，不同资产的表现存在明显差异：欧美股市>中国权益资产、需求侧商 品。我们认为，上述差异在于驱动因素与节奏上的差异：1）需求相关的商品 (铜、铝、原油等)直接计入了需求走弱预期，贸易谈判改善的影响有限；2）白 宫不断释放的贸易谈判的积极信号、"对等关税"实施之后的首份非农数据等， 成为驱动美股修复至 4 月 2 日收盘价以上的主要因素。3）中国权益资产主要在 平准力量、政策预期的驱动下有所修复。值得关注的是，相较于其他国家的主 动谈判，我国首先加强与非美经济体的合作，直到近期才释放出美方希望进行 关税谈判的信息，这也是市场近期开始重新定价的驱动因素。我们认为，贸易 谈判的逐步落地是市场定价重心切换的重要触发因素：从贸易摩擦本身转向经 济基本面。当下美股在 4 月非农数据较好的的催化下逐步修复到了极致，而中 国资产的修复相对节奏较慢。考虑到相较 2018 年：中国出口对美依 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company, SIRUI Optical, has experienced significant growth in revenue and net profit during the reporting period, particularly in 2023, despite facing challenges from international trade tensions and tariffs [1][2][3] Group 1: Company Overview - SIRUI Optical specializes in the research, production, and sales of interchangeable optical lenses, tripods, and precision optical components, primarily under the "SIRUI" brand [1] - The company's major shareholder and actual controller is Li Jie, who holds 80.22% of the shares and serves as the chairman and general manager [1] Group 2: Financial Performance - The company's revenue for the years 2021 to 2023 was 189 million, 183 million, and 262 million respectively, with net profits of 17.1 million, 18.9 million, and 31.3 million [1] - In 2023, SIRUI Optical's revenue grew by 43% year-on-year, and net profit increased by 66% [2] - The company reported a gross profit margin of 43.87%, 47.46%, and 47.95% during the same period [1] Group 3: Sales and Market Dynamics - A significant portion of SIRUI Optical's sales is international, with overseas revenue accounting for 76.24%, 77.10%, and 76.27% of total revenue from 2021 to 2023 [2] - Sales to the Americas represented 38.23%, 41.91%, and 43.25% of total sales, indicating a rapid growth trend in that region [2] Group 4: Trade Environment and Challenges - The company has faced challenges due to ongoing international trade tensions, particularly with the U.S., which has imposed tariffs on some of its products [3] - SIRUI Optical has established three wholly-owned subsidiaries in the U.S., Germany, and Japan, which are sales-focused and do not engage in production [3]

贸易摩擦的缓和是此次市场变化的重要背景。美国豁免对加拿大和墨西哥汽车零部件25%的关税，这一举措被视为贸易战缓和的信号，市场乐观情绪随之 升温。经济数据的韧性也安抚了市场，尽管美国一季度实际GDP同比下降0.3%，但符合市场预期，且4月非农就业数据超预期，强化了市场对美国经济韧 性的信心。高盛甚至将美联储首次降息的时间点从6月推迟至7月的FOMC会议，反映出市场对美国经济前景的乐观预期。 美元资产情绪修复，资金回流美国 在贸易摩擦缓和和经济数据的双重作用下，市场对美元资产的情绪正在修复。财报季过后，Meta、亚马逊、谷歌等科技巨头的业绩超出预期，股票回购 窗口再度开启，预计年内或有超过1万亿美元的回购大潮。高盛对冲基金业务负责人Tony Pasquariello指出，美股技术面已明显转好，系统化基金正通过追 涨买入，美国家庭投资者也未大规模卖出，银行和科技巨头的财报披露完毕后，股票回购将全面启动。这些因素共同推动了资金回流美国，进一步支撑了 美元资产的上涨。 离岸人民币与美元齐涨，中国资产受益 五一假期期间，全球金融市场风云变幻，离岸人民币市场更是迎来了久违的强势上涨行情，引发市场广泛关注。这一现象背后，是多 ...

Core Viewpoint - The manufacturing PMI in April 2025 has declined compared to the previous month and the past five-year average, indicating a weakening manufacturing sector under external pressures, particularly from trade tensions with the US [1][3][4] Manufacturing PMI Analysis - The manufacturing PMI for April 2025 is reported at 49.0%, down 1.5 percentage points from the previous month and 1.3 percentage points lower than the five-year average, reflecting a decrease in manufacturing activity due to external trade pressures [2][3] - The production index within the manufacturing PMI is at 49.8%, which is 2.4 percentage points lower than the five-year average, indicating a decline in production levels [4] - The new export orders index is at 44.7%, significantly lower than the five-year average by 4.8 percentage points, primarily due to reduced exports to the US [4][5] Sector Performance - Among 15 major manufacturing sectors, only 5 have PMIs above the threshold, with 4 sectors showing a month-on-month increase, including non-ferrous metal smelting and processing, which rose by 9.1 percentage points [5] - The gap between PMIs of large, medium, and small enterprises is narrowing, with large enterprises experiencing a more significant decline [5] Non-Manufacturing PMI Insights - The non-manufacturing PMI for April 2025 is at 50.4%, which is 3.6 percentage points lower than the five-year average, indicating weaker domestic demand [6] - The service sector PMI is at 50.1%, and the construction sector PMI is at 51.9%, both reflecting a decline compared to historical averages [6] Policy Response - The Central Political Bureau meeting in April outlined measures to stabilize the economy, including accelerating existing policy implementation, introducing new policies, and preparing contingency plans [7] - Specific actions include expediting the issuance of local government bonds and establishing new financial tools to support infrastructure and industrial investments [7] Market Outlook - Economic fundamentals are expected to support the bond market, with anticipated monetary easing leading to a potential decline in interest rates for medium and long-term bonds [8]

事实上，中方的条件早已摆出：美方应取消所有对华加征的关税，放弃"极限施压"策略，停止利用威胁手段制造谈判筹码，建立一个平等、尊重、互惠的 对话基础。这些条件是中国当前的底线，也是重新恢复双边沟通的前提，如果做不到，那么无论是什么表态都没有实质意义。毕竟，见面需要诚意，不是 靠嘴上说说，更不是在社交媒体上发几条推文就可以解决的。特朗普必须拿出实际行动，满足中方的基本要求，才有可能重新建立信任和沟通渠道。 如果美国政府真的希望降低关税，他们最好主动给中方打来电话，毕竟是美方挑衅在先，要解决问题，华盛顿首先得拿出诚意。但对于爱面子的特朗普来 说，他恐怕不会轻易地主动给中国打来电话，中美或许还会对峙一段时间，美国才会因为熬不住而低头。但拿美国大豆来说，中国是美国大豆的头号出口 对象，去年美国对华大豆出口总额达到128.4亿美元。中美如果不能展开谈判降低关税，美国大豆商们可要着急了。在这样的背景下，特朗普政府似乎想 出了应急办法，那就是逼迫盟友买单。 种植大豆的美国农民（资料图） 据央视网报道，近日，美国总统特朗普在"空军一号"专机上对记者表示，除非中国做出实质性让步，否则不会取消对华加征的关税。中国驻美国使馆发言 人 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent termination of the tariff exemption policy for small packages from China has not deterred American consumers; instead, it has sparked a "reverse purchasing" trend, indicating a strong demand for Chinese products despite increased costs [5][10]. Group 1: Tariff Policy Impact - The U.S. has ended the tariff exemption for small packages valued under $800 from China, imposing tariffs of 120% of the value or $100, effective May 2 [2]. - A dress priced at $18.47 on a Chinese e-commerce platform saw its price rise to $44.68 after a $26.21 import fee, reflecting a price increase of over 140% [3]. - Some products on the Shein platform experienced price surges of approximately 377% due to the new tariffs [3]. Group 2: Consumer Behavior - Despite the increased costs, American consumers are traveling to China to shop, leading to a surge in "reverse purchasing" [5]. - Data from Alipay indicates that spending by American tourists in China has doubled year-on-year, highlighting a significant increase in demand for Chinese goods [6]. - Social media discussions reveal that many American consumers are actively seeking ways to purchase Chinese products, with some expressing a desire for assistance in sourcing items from China [8]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - The phenomenon of reverse purchasing reflects a growing recognition of the value and quality of Chinese products among American consumers [10]. - The demand for Chinese goods is seen as a response to the structural impacts of tariff policies and the ongoing trade tensions between the U.S. and China [10]. - The increase in shipping costs due to tariffs has not deterred consumers, who are finding ways to navigate the challenges posed by the new trade environment [10].

Core Viewpoint - The trade negotiations between Japan and the United States have shown little progress, with the U.S. expressing optimism while Japan remains cautious about the outcomes of the discussions [1][2]. Group 1: Negotiation Dynamics - The U.S. Treasury Secretary and other officials described the discussions as "frank and constructive," emphasizing the importance of tariffs and economic security [1]. - Japan's representatives indicated measures to reduce trade surplus, such as reviewing non-tariff barriers on auto imports and increasing purchases of U.S. agricultural products [2]. - Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba stated that tariffs on automobiles are "absolutely unacceptable" and emphasized that reducing the U.S. trade deficit should not come at the expense of Japanese jobs [2]. Group 2: Future Negotiation Prospects - The U.S. has taken a hard stance, refusing to discuss tariffs on automobiles, steel, and aluminum, which complicates cooperation [4]. - Japan's Economic Revitalization Minister indicated plans for another meeting in mid-May, focusing on expanding trade and reducing non-tariff barriers [4]. - Japan's Finance Minister acknowledged the need to consider its own economic security when responding to U.S. demands, particularly regarding economic ties with China [4]. Group 3: Financial Implications - Japan holds approximately $1.08 trillion in U.S. Treasury bonds, which could be used as leverage in trade negotiations, although this approach has been previously denied by Japanese officials [5]. - Analysts suggest that Japan's mention of U.S. debt as a negotiation tool marks a new phase in trade tensions, despite concerns about the potential negative impact of selling U.S. bonds [5][6]. - The strategy of using U.S. debt as a bargaining chip could position Japan favorably in negotiations without immediate action [6].

以下文章来源于粤开志恒宏观 ，作者罗志恒 （一）特朗普的心理底价：对全球加征10%基准关税、对汽车等重点行业加征保护性关税、遏制中国和整合北美 "漫天要价，坐地还钱"是特朗普最熟悉的商业规则，也是其引以为傲的所谓"交易的艺术"。当前的"对等关税"便属于典型的漫天要价，各经济体势必也要 坐地还价。但最终交易能否达成、协议如何，则取决于交易双方的心理底价，其中特朗普的心理底价尤为关键，即他能接受的最基本的结局。从特朗普的 漫天要价中，我们可以剥离出三条关键诉求，只要实现这三点，特朗普就算成功了，其他则都可以有谈判空间。 一是对全球加征10%的基准关税。4月9日，特朗普宣布"对等关税"暂停实施90天（中国除外），但仍保留了最低10%的基准关税，大概率已是其让步的底 线。一方面，要想通过加征关税来缩减贸易逆差，就要防止出现"关税洼地"，堵住转口贸易的漏洞。美国商务部长卢特尼克在被问及为何要对"企鹅岛"加 征关税时回答称，对偏远无人岛征收关税是为了防止其他国家"钻空子"，阻止面临关税措施的国家通过偏远海岛向美国出口商品。另一方面，特朗普希望 通过加征关税来增加财政收入，就必须尽可能扩大税基。美国财政部数据显示，4月1日 ...