Core Viewpoint - The gold market is experiencing a significant rise, with prices surpassing the 4750 mark, driven by increased risk aversion and geopolitical tensions [2][6]. Market Performance - Overnight, COMEX gold futures rose by 3.70%, while SHFE gold increased by 1.98% [2][6]. - The current market sentiment reflects a retreat from risk, leading to a decline in U.S. stocks, bonds, and the dollar, alongside a sharp drop in Bitcoin [2][6]. Geopolitical Factors - Ongoing geopolitical issues, particularly concerning Greenland, are heightening market tensions, with the U.S. using tariffs as a tool for negotiating benefits [2][6]. - Japan's long-term bonds faced significant selling pressure due to expectations of early elections and expansionary fiscal policies, contributing to market anxiety [2][6]. - Trump's assertion of the necessity to acquire Greenland and threats of tariffs against multiple European nations have provoked backlash from major EU countries, exacerbating the U.S. market's turmoil [2][6]. Short-term Outlook - In the context of the Federal Reserve potentially pausing interest rate cuts in January, geopolitical conflicts are becoming a focal point for investors, particularly regarding U.S.-Iran tensions and the situation in Greenland [2][6]. - The prevailing risk aversion is expected to sustain gold's appeal in the short term [2][6].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that recent market movements, particularly the sale of U.S. Treasury bonds by a Danish pension fund and Poland's significant gold purchases, have driven gold prices to new highs, surpassing 4800 [3] - The Danish pension fund's actions reflect a loss of trust in the U.S. as a stable investment, which has increased the demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [3] - Gold prices have shown an upward trend, reaching 4850, with market sentiment suggesting a bullish outlook despite potential volatility [5] Group 2 - Domestic gold prices have surged to a high of 1083, indicating a strong upward momentum, although there are concerns about the sustainability of this trend [6] - The performance of silver has diverged from gold, with silver prices remaining around 94 and not following gold's upward trajectory, suggesting a separate market dynamic [6] - The analysis suggests waiting for a correction in silver prices before entering the market, with key support levels identified at 93 and 91.5 [6]

东吴期货21日早报称，近日贵金属震荡上行。一方面，美国宣称对欧洲国家加征关税，避险情绪再次升温利多贵金属；其次，鲍威尔遭到刑事起诉， 本质上看是美联储独立性再次遭到挑战，美元信用再遭打击；最后，波兰央行宣布增持黄金，另外丹麦养老基金决定抛售美债，都在一定程度上利好 黄金。后续重点关注美联储主席人选，美欧关税对峙，南美及格陵兰岛的地缘影响等。 现货黄金站上4800美元/盎司，多家品牌金饰价已逼近1500元，其中，周生生足金饰品报1495元/克，较1月20日1454元/克涨41元/克。老凤祥足金饰品 报1498元/克，较1月20日1456元/克涨42元/克。老庙黄金足金饰品报1493元/克，较1月20日1455元/克涨38元/克。 | E | 现货黄金(XAU) | 现货黄金(AU)<日线> | 叠加商品▼ < □ △ □ □ | K MA5:4688.727 MA10:4624.046 MA20:4514.517 MA40:4398.630 MA60:4288.542 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 卖出 4 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that the spot gold price has reached a record high of $4,836.55 per ounce, reflecting a daily increase of 1.48% and a significant rise of over $200 per ounce this week, translating to nearly a 4% increase [1][2] - The year-to-date increase in gold prices exceeds 10%, amounting to nearly $500 per ounce [1][2] - The rise in gold prices is attributed to heightened risk aversion due to geopolitical tensions, including U.S. tariffs on European countries and the criminal charges against Federal Reserve Chairman Powell, which challenge the independence of the Fed and undermine the credibility of the U.S. dollar [2][3] Group 2 - Several central banks, including Poland's, have increased their gold holdings, while Danish pension funds have sold U.S. Treasury bonds, contributing to the bullish sentiment in the gold market [2] - The strategic value of gold as a stabilizing asset in investment portfolios is becoming more pronounced, despite potential short-term volatility [3] - The price of gold jewelry has also surged, with several brands reporting prices nearing 1,500 yuan per gram, reflecting a significant increase from previous days [4]

商 品 研 究 2026 年 01 月 21 日 铜：市场避险，价格承压 季先飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0012691 jixianfei@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 铜基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 昨日夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪铜主力合约 | 101,230 | 0.05% | 99930 | -1.28% | | | 伦铜3M电子盘 | 12,797 | -1.47% | - | - | | | | 昨日成交 | 较前日变动 | 昨日持仓 | 较前日变动 | | 期 货 | 沪铜指数 | 335,565 | -128,098 | 634,562 | 7,401 | | | 伦铜3M电子盘 | 27,891 | 7,244 | 326,000 | -589 | | | | 昨日期货库存 | 较前日变动 | 注销仓单比 | 较前日变动 | | | 沪铜 | 148,193 | -4,462 | - | - | | | 伦铜 | 156,300 | 8,875 | 30.58% | -2.35% ...

Adam Glapinsk认为，黄金是一种零信用风险的资产，不受其他国家货币政策决定的影响，并且对金融 冲击具有较强的抵御能力，高额黄金储备也有助于提升波兰经济的稳定性。 波兰央行的购金行动正值金价不断刷新历史纪录之际。今年以来，黄金延续了2025年的涨势。美国当局 强行抓捕委内瑞拉领导人、威胁夺取格陵兰岛、对鲍威尔提起刑事指控加剧了对美联储独立性的担忧、 以及投资者因担忧债务水平而避开货币和政府债券等因素都提振了市场的避险情绪，并推动黄金、白银 等贵金属价格在今年以来屡创新高。截至发稿，现货黄金涨逾1%，至4818美元/盎司。 央行购金一直是推动金价猛烈上涨的关键动力之一——过去18个月里，黄金价格已翻了一番。自2022年 以来，全球各国央行购金步伐明显加快，当时俄罗斯外汇储备被冻结的事件凸显了黄金这种无法被冻结 资产的吸引力。 波兰央行在一份声明中称："这将使波兰跻身全球黄金储备量最大的前10个国家之列。"该行行长Adam Glapinsk上周宣布，他希望央行管理委员会将黄金持有量上限从截至12月31日的550吨提高到700吨。截 至目前，波兰央行能够将其总储备资产的30%用于购买黄金。Adam Glap ...

Group 1 - The gold and silver markets have reached historical highs, with spot gold surpassing $4800 per ounce for the first time, reflecting a monthly increase of over 10% and a rise of more than $480 [1] - The precious metals sector in the Hong Kong stock market opened high, with notable gains from companies such as Zhaojin Mining, Shandong Gold, and Zijin Mining, all experiencing increases of over 3% [3] Group 2 - Concerns over global trade and geopolitical outlook have intensified due to Trump's threats of new tariffs on European allies, leading investors to turn to hard assets like gold [2] - Ray Dalio suggests that the escalating trade tensions and increasing fiscal deficits may undermine confidence in U.S. debt, recommending investors allocate 5% to 15% of their portfolios to gold as a key hedge [2]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. stock market declined overnight due to tariffs and geopolitical tensions, leading to increased safe-haven sentiment, which resulted in gold and silver reaching new highs [1] Group 1: Market Impact - The COMEX gold futures surpassed $4800 per ounce during the trading session [1] - Gold-related ETFs saw an early morning increase of over 2% due to market conditions [1] Group 2: ETF Performance - Various gold ETFs experienced notable price increases, with the following highlights: - Zhongyin Shanghai Gold ETF T+0 rose by 2.61% to a price of 10.365 [2] - Shanghai Gold ETF T+0 increased by 2.75% to a price of 10.797 [2] - Shanghai Gold ETF Required T+0 saw a rise of 2.72% to a price of 10.455 [2] - E Fund Gold ETF T+0 gained 2.63% to a price of 10.808 [2] - Other gold ETFs also reported similar increases, generally around 2.6% to 2.97% [2]

所长 早读 国泰君安期货 2026-01-21 期 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 期货研究 2026-01-21 所长 早读 地缘风险带来市场不确定性 观点分享： 昨日市场仍出现了非常剧烈的波动，日债暴跌叠加格林兰岛的地缘冲突最终导致欧美股 债汇三杀，vix 指数飙升，贵金属再创历史新高。昨日市场对日债长债出现了非常明显的抛 售，日本提前选举预期、扩张性财政叙事、寿险资金持续减持、以及疲弱的超长期国债拍卖 互相叠加踩踏，最终导致了市场疯狂的对于日本长债的抛售，日本 40 年期长债收益率历史 性突破 4%，20 年、30 年债收益率单日飙升逾 20 个基点，在这种环境下，日债的税率飙升 直接带崩了欧洲和美国，日本作为全球最大美债持有国之一，长端利率失控的风险外溢让全 球市场都出现了巨大的震动，长端美债也遭受了抛售潮，10 年期美债收益率攀升 8 个基点至 4.293%，欧债方面德债和法债也都均出现了长端收益率的上行。债券长端收益率飙升的风险 外溢，也导致了大量股票被抛售，昨晚欧股及美股均出现不同幅度下跌，市场的恐慌情绪叠 加美国对于格林兰岛武力控制威胁和欧洲议会的反击，最终导致了市场的股债汇三 ...

最后，波兰央行宣布增持黄金，另外丹麦养老基金决定抛售美债，都在一定程度上利好黄金。后续重点关注美联储主席人选，美欧关税对峙，南美及格陵 兰岛的地缘影响等。 多家机构依旧看涨金价未来一段时间走势。 花旗近日表示，预计黄金目标价5000美元，白银目标 价100美元。鉴于地缘政治风险加剧、实物短缺以及美联储独立性再次出现不确定性，花旗集团上调 了其对贵金属的短期展望。 1月21日亚市早盘，金价再创新高。 截至发稿，现货黄金报4818美元/盎司，再创历史新高；纽约期金报4820美元/盎司。两者涨幅均超1%。 | 蓝好彩 | 板块跟踪 | 品种热图 | 报价列表 | 主力排名 | 全球商品 | 中国商品 | 贵会属 有色金属 | 消费器 原油 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | 贵金属 | | | | | 名称 | | | | 现价 | | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 年初至今 | | 伦敦金现 | | | | 4815.690 | | 52.720 | 1.11% | 11.52% | | 伦敦银现 | | | | 94 ...