Performance Summary - In 2024, the company's operating revenue and net profit attributable to shareholders were 36.011 billion and 12.243 billion yuan, respectively, representing year-on-year growth of 12.79% and 17.29% [1] - In Q1 2025, the company's operating revenue and net profit attributable to shareholders were 16.523 billion and 6.648 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth of 7.72% and 6.15% [2] Revenue Breakdown - In 2024, the company's liquor revenue reached 35.875 billion yuan, up 13% year-on-year, with a gross margin increase of 0.93 percentage points to 76.30% [1] - The proportion of mid-to-high-end liquor revenue increased by 0.86 percentage points to 73.96%, with revenues of 26.532 billion and 9.342 billion yuan for mid-to-high-end and other liquors, respectively [1] - In Q1 2025, liquor revenue was 16.480 billion yuan, with revenue from Fenjiu and other liquors at 16.212 billion and 0.268 billion yuan, respectively [2] Market Dynamics - In 2024, revenue from provincial and out-of-province markets was 13.500 billion and 22.374 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth of 11.72% and 13.81% [1] - The number of distributors increased by 613 to 4,553, while the average scale per distributor decreased by 2.88% to 7.3657 million yuan [1] - In Q1 2025, provincial and out-of-province revenues were 6.083 billion and 10.396 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth of 8.7% and 7.18% [2] Profitability Analysis - In 2024, the gross margin and net profit margin were 76.20% and 34.00%, respectively, with increases of 0.9 and 1.3 percentage points [1] - In Q1 2025, the gross margin and net profit margin were 78.80% and 40.23%, with changes of +1.34 and -0.60 percentage points [2] - Operating cash flow increased by 68.47% year-on-year to 12.172 billion yuan in 2024, while in Q1 2025, it decreased by 0.21% to 7.027 billion yuan [1][2] Earnings Forecast - The company expects revenue growth of 8%, 9%, and 9% for 2025-2027, reaching 39 billion, 42.5 billion, and 46.3 billion yuan, respectively [3] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to grow by 6%, 9%, and 10% for the same period, reaching 13 billion, 14.1 billion, and 15.5 billion yuan, respectively [3] - The revised earnings forecast reflects a weaker consumption environment for liquor [3]

中金研究 当前白酒板块面临一定的需求缺口，我们认为未来白酒行业走出周期底部离不开需求的支撑，我们对长期白酒需求量价变化进行深度探讨、通过对需 求周期复盘总结需求回升期的特征，并分析当下白酒的需求情况。 点击小程序查看报告原文 Abstract 长期需求如何展望？ 1）量： 我国白酒饮用主力（20-60岁男性）人口数在2020年达最高值4.3亿后下降，中国人口研究与发展中心预测25-30年饮酒主力人 口数或将小幅下降；在"喝的少，喝的好"消费趋势及中小产能出清影响下，人均销量16-24年CAGR-9.2%，参考发达国家经验，我们预计未来人均饮用量 以每年低单位数速度收缩。 2）价： 居民收入增长支撑，加之供给集中度持续提升，1999-24年白酒单价CAGR10%，我们预计未来五年白酒价格或仍将延 续中-高个位数复合增速。同时我们发现2013年以来居民财富效应与白酒价格相关性提升，而白酒在社交场景的刚需消费属性能够对冲财富效应带来的周 期波动性，使白酒价格能持续平稳上升。 复盘白酒需求周期有何特征？ 1） 2013年以来白酒消费需求从政商务引领为主逐步转向多元需求共同驱动是其核心特征之一，居民财富效应对白酒消费影 ...

Performance Summary - In 2024, the company's operating revenue, net profit attributable to the parent, and net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses were 2.203 billion, 286 million, and 278 million yuan respectively, showing year-on-year declines of 1.27%, 15.91%, and 16.48% [1] - In Q1 2025, the company's operating revenue, net profit attributable to the parent, and net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses were 796 million, 144 million, and 144 million yuan respectively, with year-on-year declines of 4.32%, 9.29%, and 9.76% [1] Dividend and Revenue Goals - The dividend payout ratio for 2024 is 54.40%, up from 53.24% in 2023 [2] - The revenue target for 2025 is set at 2.3 billion yuan [2] Product and Market Performance - In 2024, the revenue from high-end, mid-range, and low-end products was 1.529 billion, 506 million, and 134 million yuan respectively, with year-on-year changes of +4.27%, -8.17%, and -20.53% [2] - The proportion of mid-range and low-end products is decreasing, indicating a trend towards structural upgrading [2] - In Q1 2025, the revenue from high-end, mid-range, and low-end products was 620 million, 134 million, and 34 million yuan respectively, with year-on-year changes of +8.77%, -30.75%, and -40.94% [3] - The high-end product proportion reached 78.67% in Q1 2025, continuing to increase [3] Market Dynamics - In Q1 2025, the company's revenue from domestic and external markets was 695 million and 93 million yuan respectively, with year-on-year changes of +3.49% and -37.86% [3] - The domestic market remains stable, while the external market is experiencing a temporary decline [3] Channel Performance - In Q1 2025, revenue from direct sales, online sales, and wholesale agents was 197 million, 43 million, and 548 million yuan respectively, with year-on-year changes of +69.89%, +0.65%, and -17.27% [3] - The number of distributors decreased by 14 to 57 by the end of 2024, while the average distributor scale increased by 3.05% [3] Profitability Metrics - In Q1 2025, the gross profit margin and net profit margin decreased by 3.12 and 1.27 percentage points to 48.77% and 18.04% respectively, attributed to increased discounts during the Spring Festival [4] - The sales expense ratio, management expense ratio, and financial expense ratio changed by -1.42, +0.31, and +0.45 percentage points to 5.21%, 3.34%, and 0.59% respectively [4] Future Outlook - The company is expected to gradually improve its operating conditions following the implementation of a new marketing strategy, with a focus on stabilizing the domestic market [4] - The profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 are adjusted to 314 million and 348 million yuan respectively, with growth rates of 10% and 11% [4]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price set for the next six months [5][17]. Core Views - The company is experiencing a structural upgrade in its product offerings, with a focus on high-end products, despite a temporary slowdown in growth. The revenue target for 2025 is set at 2.3 billion yuan [1][3]. - The company has shown resilience in its domestic market, with high-end product sales increasing, while facing challenges in external markets [2][3]. - The company is expected to gradually improve its operational performance as it clears channel risks and implements new marketing strategies [3]. Financial Performance Summary - For 2024, the company expects revenues of 2.2 billion yuan, a slight decrease of 1.27% year-on-year, with a projected recovery in 2025 to 2.3 billion yuan [4][11]. - The company's gross profit margin is expected to improve to 52.30% in 2025, while the net profit margin is projected to be 13.59% [11][12]. - The company reported a dividend payout ratio of 54.40% for 2024, slightly up from 53.24% in 2023 [1]. Product and Market Analysis - In Q1 2025, the revenue from high-end products reached 620 million yuan, representing an increase of 8.77% year-on-year, while mid and low-end products saw significant declines [2][3]. - The domestic market remains stable, with revenue from the domestic market at 695 million yuan, up 3.49% year-on-year, while external market revenue dropped by 37.86% [2][3]. - The company is focusing on increasing its direct sales and online sales channels, with direct sales revenue growing by 69.89% in Q1 2025 [2][3].

白酒：1190亿元分红创新高 所谓冰，是整个白酒板块上市企业2024年净利润增速普遍下滑；而所谓火，则是2024年年度行业分红总金额高达1190亿元，逆势创下历史新高。 在行业竞争不断加剧的背景下，白酒这张高分红的"牌"能否达到想要的效果？从2024年第四季度与2025年一季度基金的持仓态度来看，机构投资者的信心已 然回暖。 随着2024年年报披露完毕，白酒企业2024年派发"红包"金额也随之出炉，由于多家头部酒企增加了分红频次，最终让白酒企业2024年全年分红总金额定格在 1190亿元，分红总金额同比增长近10%，而整个行业股息支付率也达到71.34%，仅次于2022年的74.28%，排在历史第二。 | 年度 | 归母净利润(亿元) | 现金分红总额(亿元) | 股息支付率 | 分红公司数量 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2024 | 1,668.48 | 1.190.26 | 71.34% | 17 | | 2023 | 1.550.59 | 1.094.86 | 70.61% | 16 | | 2022 | 1.304.73 | 969.19 | 74.28% ...

Core Insights - The youth demographic in China, aged 14-35, represents 28.35% of the population, approximately 400 million people, and is projected to drive a consumption volume of 11.29 trillion yuan in 2024 [2] - Young consumers prioritize emotional value and personal interests over traditional price-performance ratios, with over 40% willing to pay a premium for emotional and interest-driven purchases [2][3] - The consumption behavior of the youth is increasingly intertwined with social interactions, leveraging online platforms for decision-making and creating a cycle of sharing and purchasing [3] Group 1: Characteristics of Youth Consumption in Baijiu - Young consumers prefer lower alcohol content and fruit-flavored options, with 83% favoring beverages with an alcohol content below 20% [4] - Consumption scenarios have shifted from traditional banquets to social gatherings like parties and music festivals, with innovative consumption practices emerging [4] - Price sensitivity is evident, with products priced under 200 yuan being more popular; for instance, Huanggai Boling's price of approximately 50 yuan has led to a sales increase of over 30% in 2024 [4][5] Group 2: Generational Gap in Baijiu Consumption - There is a stark contrast between the strong flavors of traditional Baijiu and the youth's preference for lighter, sweeter beverages, with only 9% of young people regularly consuming Baijiu [7] - The brand image of Baijiu is perceived as outdated, often associated with formal occasions, which limits its appeal to younger consumers [8] - Traditional marketing strategies focusing on heritage and exclusivity do not resonate with youth, who seek social currency and personalized expressions [8] Group 3: Strategies for Youth Engagement in Baijiu - Product innovation is essential, focusing on lower alcohol content and flavor diversification, as well as creating new consumption scenarios [9] - Marketing strategies must evolve to incorporate digital engagement and emotional connections with consumers [10] - The integration of online and offline channels is crucial, with live-streaming e-commerce expected to grow by 25.6% in 2024 [10][11] Group 4: Future Trends in Baijiu Consumption - The market is expected to see a rise in healthier options, with low-alcohol and sugar-free products projected to capture over 30% of the market share by 2030 [13] - Technological advancements in production and marketing, such as AI quality control and virtual experiences, will enhance transparency and engagement [13] - Globalization of brands is anticipated, with companies leveraging the "Chinese style" trend to expand internationally, as evidenced by a 58% increase in overseas revenue for Moutai in 2024 [14]

Core Viewpoint - The liquor industry maintains a medium-term optimistic outlook, emphasizing the importance of positioning over rhythm, with a focus on marginal stabilization signals at the cycle bottom [1] Revenue Side: Gradual Bottoming and Increasing Disparity - In FY2024, the liquor sector's revenue grew by 8.2% year-on-year, while net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 7.2%, with a noticeable deceleration in H2 compared to H1 [2] - Major liquor companies are enhancing dealer management and making appropriate adjustments, emphasizing binding core distributors to drive network penetration and sales performance [2] - In Q4 of 2024 and Q1 of 2025, most liquor companies experienced cash collection growth rates lower than apparent return growth rates, indicating ongoing cash pressure in channels [2] Profit Side: Pressure on Gross Margin and Tax Rate, Decline in Net Profit Margin - The gross margin for the liquor sector in FY2024 was 82.93%, a year-on-year increase of 0.41 percentage points, while Q1 of 2025 saw a gross margin of 82.61%, up by 0.09 percentage points [3] - Sales expense ratios increased in FY2024 and Q1 of 2025, while management expense ratios decreased, indicating a cautious approach to expense management amid a stable pricing environment [3] - Profit growth rates for high-end liquor were 11.31% in FY2024 and 8.47% in Q1 of 2025, while sub-high-end and real estate liquor experienced declines, primarily due to challenges faced by certain brands [3]

新华财经北京5月8日电 A股上市酒企近期集中披露的2024年年报及2025年一季报显示，尽管面临产品价格倒挂、渠道销售放缓等压力，白酒企业整体仍展现 出较强的经营韧性，但企业间的分化也较为明显。 将20家白酒企业按照高端酒、次高端酒、区域龙头酒、其他酒进行划分，以"茅五泸"为代表的高端酒表现最为强势，2024年合计营业总收入、合计归母净利 润均同比增长超过11%。其中，贵州茅台2024年营业总收入、归母净利润分别同比增长15.66%、15.38%。 | | | | 面向阶级 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 不同类型自酒企业2024年业绩表现 | | | | 企业类型 | 2024年营业总收入(亿元) 营业总收入同比增速 | | 2024年归母净利润(亿元) | 川国语科 | | 高端酒 | 2945.16 11.53% | | 1315.54 | 11 | | 区域龙头酒 | 773.58 1.57% | | 198.47 | -8 | | 次高端酒 | 480.08 2.60% | | 139.42 | -0 | | 其他酒 | 223.44 -10.95 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company is focusing on expanding its presence in the out-of-province market, particularly around the Jiangsu region, as the domestic market stabilizes [2][5]. Group 1: Market Expansion Strategy - The company has restructured its sales organization to enhance its efforts in the out-of-province market, particularly in key areas surrounding Jiangsu [2]. - The company has significantly increased its sales team, with the number of sales personnel rising to 1,843, an increase of 334 from the previous year, making up 35% of total employees [2][3]. - The out-of-province market revenue is projected to reach 926 million yuan in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 27%, while costs in this segment have surged by 51% [3][4]. Group 2: Financial Performance - The company reported a revenue growth of 14.32% and a net profit growth of 8.8% for 2024, although these figures indicate a slowdown compared to previous years [5][6]. - The company’s operational costs in various regions within Jiangsu have increased significantly, with some areas seeing cost growth exceeding 30% [5]. - The company aims for a total revenue growth of 5%-12% for 2024, which is a downward adjustment compared to previous targets [6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the liquor industry, indicating a positive outlook for the mid-term [1]. Core Insights - The liquor industry is experiencing continued pressure, with a focus on quality over speed in growth. The recovery in demand is showing signs of being uneven, leading companies to prioritize prudent growth strategies [12][18]. - The high-end liquor segment is seeing stable pricing control, while the mid-range segment is under pressure, indicating a divergence in performance across different price tiers [1][12]. Summary by Sections 1. Demand Recovery and Quality Focus - The liquor sector's revenue for FY 2024 grew by 8.2% year-on-year, with net profit increasing by 7.2%. For Q1 2025, revenue growth slowed to 2.3% and net profit to 2.6% [12][18]. - Consumer confidence remains weak, particularly in the mid to low-end segments, while high-end banquet consumption is showing signs of recovery from a low base [12][18]. 2. Revenue Trends - Revenue growth is gradually bottoming out, with increasing differentiation among companies. The high-end segment remains relatively stable, while the mid-range segment faces significant challenges [18][27]. - The report highlights that many liquor companies are tightening control over distributors and focusing on core products to drive sales [18][27]. 3. Profitability Analysis - The gross profit margin for the liquor sector in FY 2024 was 82.93%, a slight increase from the previous year. However, many companies are facing pressure on their gross margins due to pricing and product mix challenges [2][3]. - Sales and management expense ratios have seen slight increases, indicating a cautious approach to spending amid a challenging market environment [2][3]. 4. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that leading liquor companies are expected to show resilient growth, supported by effective channel management and digital tracking strategies. Companies like Guizhou Moutai and Shanxi Fenjiu are recommended for their solid performance and valuation safety margins [3][12].