海外宏观利率攻略系列 美联储利率走廊制度演变回顾 glmszqdatemark | [Table_Author] | | --- | | 分析师 | 徐亮 | | --- | --- | | 执业证书： S0590525110037 | | | 邮箱： | xliang@glms.com.cn | | 研究助理 | 黄涵静 | | 执业证书： S0590125110075 | | | 邮箱： | huanghanjing@glms.com.cn | 相关研究 1． 流动性跟踪与地方债策略专题：资金波澜 再起-2026/01/28 2． 指数增强策略系列： 基于科创债 ETF 的增 强策略-2026/01/27 3． 信用债周策略 20260126：怎么看民企发 债热度回升？-2026/01/26 4． 债券策略周报 20260125：当前各债券品 种及期限的定价分析-2026/01/25 5． 海外利率周报 20260125：美债延续高位 小幅波动格局-2026/01/25 本公司具备证券投资咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明 证券研究报告 1 2026 年 02 月 04 日 为什么要研究美国的利率走 ...

据央视新闻，为保持银行体系流动性充裕，今天（2月4日）中国人民银行以固定数量、利率招标、多重价位中标方式开展8000亿元买断式逆回购操作，期限 为3个月（91天）。 买断式逆回购是中国人民银行于2024年10月推出的新工具，是在央行每日根据一级交易商需求连续开展7天期逆回购操作的基础上，额外投放的中长期资 金。买断式逆回购可以使央行更加及时、精准地调节市场流动性。 此外，2月4日，央行公告称，以固定利率、数量招标方式开展了750亿元7天期逆回购操作，操作利率为1.4%。因今日有3775亿元7天期逆回购和7000亿元3 个月（91天）买断式逆回购到期，叠加央行开展的8000亿元3个月（91天）买断式逆回购操作，实现净回笼2025亿元。 | | | | 中国人民银行 | 货币政策司 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | THE PEOPLE'S BANK OF CHINA | | Monetary Policy Department | | | | 信息公开 | 新闻发布 | 法律法规 | 货币政策 | 宏观审慎 | 信 ...

Core Viewpoint - The nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve Chairman is seen as a significant move that could "re-anchor the credibility of the Federal Reserve" and has strong implications for gold and silver markets [1]. Group 1: Nomination and Background - Kevin Warsh, former Federal Reserve Governor, has been nominated by President Trump to replace Jerome Powell, whose term ends in May 2026, pending Senate confirmation [1]. - Warsh, aged 55, served as a Federal Reserve Governor from 2006 to 2011 and was involved in the coordination efforts during the 2008 financial crisis [1][3]. - After leaving the Fed, Warsh has been active in academic and policy research, contributing to discussions on monetary policy and central banking [1]. Group 2: Federal Reserve's Role and Independence - The Federal Reserve is crucial in formulating monetary policy, maintaining financial stability, and regulating certain financial institutions, with its decisions impacting U.S. Treasury yields, dollar exchange rates, and stock market expectations [3][4]. - Historically, the Federal Reserve has been viewed as one of the most independent institutions in the U.S. government, designed to minimize political influence on monetary policy [5][6]. Group 3: Market Reactions - Following the announcement of Warsh's nomination, U.S. financial markets reacted negatively, with major stock indices declining between 0.2% and 1%, and bond yields rising, indicating a reassessment of future monetary policy [4][6]. - The simultaneous movement in stock and bond markets was attributed to investor recalibration of policy expectations rather than new macroeconomic data [4]. Group 4: Challenges to Independence - The Federal Reserve's independence is under unprecedented pressure, particularly following the COVID-19 pandemic, which led to significant asset purchases and a substantial increase in its balance sheet [5][6]. - The blurred lines between monetary and fiscal policy have raised questions about the Fed's technical independence amid rising public and political scrutiny [5][6]. Group 5: Policy Implications - The ongoing debates surrounding interest rates, inflation control, and trade policies highlight the challenges faced by the Federal Reserve, especially under the Trump administration [6][7]. - Warsh's approach to monetary policy is expected to emphasize credibility, discipline, and clear boundaries, contrasting with Powell's more pragmatic style [10][11]. - The effectiveness of Warsh's proposed monetary policy framework, which focuses on institutional credibility, will depend on balancing short-term stability with long-term constraints in a complex economic environment [11].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential implications of Kevin Warsh's appointment as the next Federal Reserve Chair, questioning whether he will adopt a hawkish stance on inflation or align with political pressures from Trump [1][2]. Group 1: Warsh's Economic Philosophy - Warsh is characterized as a typical "hard currency" central banker, emphasizing the importance of the Federal Reserve's independence and the dangers of excessive monetary policy intervention [3]. - In a 2010 speech, Warsh outlined four key points regarding the Fed's responsibilities, including the need to resist becoming the ultimate rescuer and the importance of maintaining a reputation for historical significance rather than political expediency [3]. - His recent criticisms of the Fed's performance suggest a continuity of his hardline stance, particularly regarding the need for price stability and the dangers of fiscal dominance over monetary policy [4]. Group 2: Political Dynamics and Implications - The article raises concerns about Warsh's potential to act as a political tool, shifting his stance on monetary policy based on the ruling party, which could lead to unpredictable economic risks [2]. - Trump's choice of Warsh, despite his own fiscal dominance, suggests a complex relationship where Warsh's criticisms of the Fed's expansion may align with Trump's agenda [5][6]. - The potential for Warsh to adopt a more lenient view on inflation due to technological advancements raises questions about the risks associated with such a shift, especially given the current economic context of high fiscal deficits [6]. Group 3: Risks and Future Outlook - Concerns persist regarding Warsh's willingness to defend Trump's policies, which may lead to a scenario where fiscal expansion and deregulation undermine monetary discipline, potentially sowing the seeds for a financial crisis [8]. - The article warns that the combination of short-term political considerations and long-term economic stability could heighten systemic risks within the financial system [9]. - The need for a Federal Reserve Chair who can resist political pressures is emphasized, with the current chair, Powell, being recognized for his ability to maintain independence [9].

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2026-02-04 铝现货市场成交清淡 重要数据 铝现货方面：SMM数据，华东A00铝价23290元/吨，较上一交易日变化-410元/吨，华东铝现货升贴水-220元/ 吨，较上一交易日变化0元/吨；中原A00铝价23160元/吨，现货升贴水较上一交易日变化40元/吨至-350元/吨； 佛山A00铝价录23310元/吨，较上一交易日变化-400元/吨，铝现货升贴水较上一交易日变化10元/吨至-200元/ 吨。 铝期货方面：2026-02-03日沪铝主力合约开于23435元/吨，收于23810元/吨，较上一交易日变化-230元/吨， 最高价达23930元/吨，最低价达到23140元/吨。全天交易日成交763560手，全天交易日持仓226641手。 库存方面，截止2026-02-03，SMM统计国内电解铝锭社会库存81.7万吨，较上一期变化3.5万吨，仓单库存150712 吨，较上一交易日变化253吨，LME铝库存495175吨，较上一交易日变化-2000吨。 氧化铝现货价格：2026-02-03SMM氧化铝山西价格录得2610元/吨，山东价格录得2555元/吨，河南价格录得 2635元 ...

市场最初的核心疑虑在于，缩表通常伴随流动性回收，在弱化前瞻指引并强调通胀稳定的背景下，可能 推升风险溢价与期限溢价，从而压制股票估值，并放大跨资产价格波动，尤其对高杠杆或现金流兑现周 期较长的资产更为不利。 但宏观策略师 Michael Ball 指出，沃什的政策框架并非缺乏缓冲空间。其一， 沃什对央行过度干预金融体系的警惕，与财政部长贝森特强调提升财政政策可预测性的立场高度契合， 为货币与财政在操作层面形成非正式协同创造了条件。在"沃什—贝森特"组合下，若美联储缩表节奏能 够与财政部稳定、可预期的国债发行安排相协调，市场对流动性路径与供给节奏的认知将明显改善。在 政策预期具备可信度的前提下，金融条件并不必然因缩表而出现意外收紧，利率市场所承受的被动冲击 也有望受到约束。 在上述框架下，沃什偏向降低利率的立场，可能为收益率曲线前端提供一定支撑；而从中长期角度观 察，若国债供给预期保持稳定、期限溢价受到抑制，长端利率的波动反而存在下降空间。 此外，沃什 主张弱化美联储在金融体系中的"主导性角色"，将部分责任重新交由财政与监管体系承担。这意味着， 对银行准备金及高质量流动性资产的严格约束存在调整余地。Ball 认 ...

东方金诚首席宏观分析师对央广财经记者指出，央行通过买断式逆回购向银行体系注入中期流动性，能 够引导节前资金面处于较为稳定的充裕状态。这在助力政府债券发行，引导金融机构加大货币信贷投放 力度的同时，也在释放数量型政策工具持续加力信号，显示货币政策延续支持性立场。 "值得注意的是，本月3个月期买断式逆回购加量续作，也意味着近期降准可能性进一步下降。在1月15 日央行推出一揽子结构性政策后，短期内货币政策处于观察期。"王青认为，接下来央行将综合运用中 期借贷便利（MLF）和买断式逆回购，持续向市场注入中期流动性，或会对本月到期的买断式逆回购 和MLF进行加量续作。 央广网北京2月4日消息（记者 冯方）2月3日，央行发布公告称，为保持银行体系流动性充裕，央行将 于2月4日以固定数量、利率招标、多重价位中标方式开展8000亿元买断式逆回购操作，期限为3个月 （91天）。 央行数据显示，2月有7000亿元3个月期买断式逆回购到期，今日（2月4日）8000亿元买断式逆回购落地 后，当月3个月期买断式逆回购加量续作，加量规模为1000亿元。这是央行时隔三个月再度对3个月期买 断式逆回购加量续作。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Lazard's CEO Peter Orszag suggests that the Federal Reserve may have made a mistake by lowering interest rates at the end of last year, as inflation could unexpectedly rise this year despite market perceptions of a decline [1] Economic Outlook - Orszag anticipates that artificial intelligence and high-income consumers could boost U.S. economic growth, describing this growth as "fragile yet strong" [1] - He emphasizes that the full impact of tariffs has yet to be realized, which could further increase inflation [1] Federal Reserve Position - Orszag believes the Federal Reserve is behind the curve, stating that the rate cut at the end of last year was unwarranted [1] - He warns that if inflation rises as he predicts, it could lead to further depreciation of the dollar and a steeper yield curve [1]

华安期货：2月4日黄金白银短期或继续高波动运行 中长期，全球增加官方黄金储备的趋势、公共债务高企带来的主权货币危机及工业领域的广阔应用前景等因素继续为黄金提供 支撑。 4、澳洲联储宣布加息25个基点至3.85%，为2023年以来的首次加息，成为2026年首个加息的主要发达经济体央行。 5、上期所发布通知，自2月4日收盘结算时起，白银期货已上市合约的涨跌停板幅度调整为19%，套保持仓、一般持仓交易保证 金比例调整为20%和21%。 核心逻辑： 近期，市场获利了结及宏观面信息冲击带来金银价格巨幅波动。美国经济向好与通胀压力并存，美联储政策不确定性增加。生 产者价格上涨可能迫使美联储维持"中性"货币政策利率的时间长于预期，给金价带来压力。 重要信息： 1、COMEX黄金期货涨6.83%报4970.50美元/盎司，COMEX白银期货涨10.27%报84.92美元/盎司。 2、美联储理事米兰表示，美联储今年需要降息不止100个基点，很期待凯文·沃什担任美联储主席后的表现。不过，里士满联储 主席巴金强调，在通胀尚未完全回落至目标之前，货币政策仍需保持谨慎，以确保劳动力市场的稳定。 3、美国总统特朗普签署政府拨款法案，结束 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - The LPR has remained unchanged for six consecutive months, and monetary policy still has a certain degree of determination. The central bank may maintain reasonable and sufficient liquidity through structural tools or timely reserve requirement ratio cuts. In the bond market, with the interweaving of long and short factors, the wait-and-see sentiment will continue in the short term, and it is more likely to be volatile [2][10][12]. - The Ministry of Finance successfully issued 4 billion euro sovereign bonds in Luxembourg, indicating that China's bond market opening continues to advance. This not only releases a positive signal of China's financial market opening but also has multiple meanings such as constructing diversified foreign currency financing channels and promoting cross - border docking of financial infrastructure [3][14][16]. - In October, the cumulative year - on - year data of real estate investment and sales further weakened, and the real estate market continued to operate at the bottom, with the confidence of real estate enterprises to be restored [4][18]. - The central bank provided liquidity support last week, and the overall capital price showed a downward trend. The issuance scale of the primary credit bond market increased significantly, and the issuance cost mostly declined. In the secondary market, the trading activity continued to decline, and the credit bond yields fluctuated [5][6][35]. Summary by Directory Market Hotspots - **LPR Remains Unchanged for Six Consecutive Months**: The 1 - year LPR is 3.00%, and the 5 - year and above LPR is 3.50%, both remaining unchanged for 6 months. The reasons include the narrowing of the net interest margin of commercial banks, the current low - level interest rate, and the emphasis on "cross - cycle adjustment" in monetary policy. The central bank may use structural tools or reserve requirement ratio cuts to maintain liquidity. The bond market is expected to fluctuate [2][10][12]. - **Foreign - Currency Sovereign Bonds Issued Continuously**: On November 18, the Ministry of Finance issued 4 billion euro sovereign bonds in Luxembourg. The total subscription amount was 100.1 billion euros, 25 times the issuance amount. It is innovative in product types, with diversified investor structures. It has multiple meanings such as reducing exchange - rate risks, providing pricing references, and promoting cross - border docking of financial infrastructure [3][14][16]. Macroeconomic Data - In October, the real estate development climate index was 92.43, a decrease of 0.34 from the previous value. National real estate development investment decreased by 14.7% year - on - year, the housing construction area of real estate development enterprises decreased by 9.4% year - on - year, and the sales area of newly built commercial housing decreased by 6.8% year - on - year, with the decline narrowing compared with the same period last year [4][18]. Money Market - The central bank conducted 5 periods of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations totaling 167.6 billion yuan and 1 period of 6 - month outright reverse repurchase of 80 billion yuan last week. After deducting the maturity amount, the net investment in the open market was 123.4 billion yuan. Except for DR014 and DR1M, most term pledged repurchase rates decreased by 1 - 5bp. The 3 - month Shibor slightly decreased, and the 1 - year Shibor remained unchanged [21]. Primary Market of Credit Bonds - The issuance scale of credit bonds last week was 356.661 billion yuan, an increase of 105.252 billion yuan from the previous value. Except for the private placement corporate bonds, the issuance scale of other bond types increased. The infrastructure investment and financing industry had a net inflow of financing, while the industrial bond financing situation varied. The average issuance cost of credit bonds mostly declined, especially for medium - and high - grade bonds [6][24][25]. Secondary Market of Credit Bonds - The secondary - market spot trading volume of bonds last week was 822.4458 billion yuan, a decrease of 44.3106 billion yuan from the previous period. The average daily spot trading volume decreased to 164.4892 billion yuan. The bond market yields fluctuated. The yields of interest - rate bonds and credit bonds showed different trends, and most of the rating spreads expanded [35]. Appendix - **Credit Risk Events in the Bond Market**: There were events such as bond extensions and defaults of some real estate and media companies, including the interest extension of "H1 Greenview 01" and "H1 Greenview 02" and the principal and interest default of "17 Huawen Media MTN001H" [44]. - **Regulatory and Market Innovation Dynamics**: There were updates to the list of special institutional investors for private placement debt financing instruments, and policies such as including savings bonds (electronic) in the scope of personal pension products [45]. - **Monthly Net Financing of Main Credit Bond Types**: The net financing of different types of credit bonds showed different trends from January 2024 to October 2025 [46].