新能源及有色金属日报 | 2026-02-04 铝现货市场成交清淡 重要数据 铝现货方面：SMM数据，华东A00铝价23290元/吨，较上一交易日变化-410元/吨，华东铝现货升贴水-220元/ 吨，较上一交易日变化0元/吨；中原A00铝价23160元/吨，现货升贴水较上一交易日变化40元/吨至-350元/吨； 佛山A00铝价录23310元/吨，较上一交易日变化-400元/吨，铝现货升贴水较上一交易日变化10元/吨至-200元/ 吨。 铝期货方面：2026-02-03日沪铝主力合约开于23435元/吨，收于23810元/吨，较上一交易日变化-230元/吨， 最高价达23930元/吨，最低价达到23140元/吨。全天交易日成交763560手，全天交易日持仓226641手。 库存方面，截止2026-02-03，SMM统计国内电解铝锭社会库存81.7万吨，较上一期变化3.5万吨，仓单库存150712 吨，较上一交易日变化253吨，LME铝库存495175吨，较上一交易日变化-2000吨。 氧化铝现货价格：2026-02-03SMM氧化铝山西价格录得2610元/吨，山东价格录得2555元/吨，河南价格录得 2635元 ...

市场最初的核心疑虑在于，缩表通常伴随流动性回收，在弱化前瞻指引并强调通胀稳定的背景下，可能 推升风险溢价与期限溢价，从而压制股票估值，并放大跨资产价格波动，尤其对高杠杆或现金流兑现周 期较长的资产更为不利。 但宏观策略师 Michael Ball 指出，沃什的政策框架并非缺乏缓冲空间。其一， 沃什对央行过度干预金融体系的警惕，与财政部长贝森特强调提升财政政策可预测性的立场高度契合， 为货币与财政在操作层面形成非正式协同创造了条件。在"沃什—贝森特"组合下，若美联储缩表节奏能 够与财政部稳定、可预期的国债发行安排相协调，市场对流动性路径与供给节奏的认知将明显改善。在 政策预期具备可信度的前提下，金融条件并不必然因缩表而出现意外收紧，利率市场所承受的被动冲击 也有望受到约束。 在上述框架下，沃什偏向降低利率的立场，可能为收益率曲线前端提供一定支撑；而从中长期角度观 察，若国债供给预期保持稳定、期限溢价受到抑制，长端利率的波动反而存在下降空间。 此外，沃什 主张弱化美联储在金融体系中的"主导性角色"，将部分责任重新交由财政与监管体系承担。这意味着， 对银行准备金及高质量流动性资产的严格约束存在调整余地。Ball 认 ...

东方金诚首席宏观分析师对央广财经记者指出，央行通过买断式逆回购向银行体系注入中期流动性，能 够引导节前资金面处于较为稳定的充裕状态。这在助力政府债券发行，引导金融机构加大货币信贷投放 力度的同时，也在释放数量型政策工具持续加力信号，显示货币政策延续支持性立场。 "值得注意的是，本月3个月期买断式逆回购加量续作，也意味着近期降准可能性进一步下降。在1月15 日央行推出一揽子结构性政策后，短期内货币政策处于观察期。"王青认为，接下来央行将综合运用中 期借贷便利（MLF）和买断式逆回购，持续向市场注入中期流动性，或会对本月到期的买断式逆回购 和MLF进行加量续作。 央广网北京2月4日消息（记者 冯方）2月3日，央行发布公告称，为保持银行体系流动性充裕，央行将 于2月4日以固定数量、利率招标、多重价位中标方式开展8000亿元买断式逆回购操作，期限为3个月 （91天）。 央行数据显示，2月有7000亿元3个月期买断式逆回购到期，今日（2月4日）8000亿元买断式逆回购落地 后，当月3个月期买断式逆回购加量续作，加量规模为1000亿元。这是央行时隔三个月再度对3个月期买 断式逆回购加量续作。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Lazard's CEO Peter Orszag suggests that the Federal Reserve may have made a mistake by lowering interest rates at the end of last year, as inflation could unexpectedly rise this year despite market perceptions of a decline [1] Economic Outlook - Orszag anticipates that artificial intelligence and high-income consumers could boost U.S. economic growth, describing this growth as "fragile yet strong" [1] - He emphasizes that the full impact of tariffs has yet to be realized, which could further increase inflation [1] Federal Reserve Position - Orszag believes the Federal Reserve is behind the curve, stating that the rate cut at the end of last year was unwarranted [1] - He warns that if inflation rises as he predicts, it could lead to further depreciation of the dollar and a steeper yield curve [1]

华安期货：2月4日黄金白银短期或继续高波动运行 中长期，全球增加官方黄金储备的趋势、公共债务高企带来的主权货币危机及工业领域的广阔应用前景等因素继续为黄金提供 支撑。 4、澳洲联储宣布加息25个基点至3.85%，为2023年以来的首次加息，成为2026年首个加息的主要发达经济体央行。 5、上期所发布通知，自2月4日收盘结算时起，白银期货已上市合约的涨跌停板幅度调整为19%，套保持仓、一般持仓交易保证 金比例调整为20%和21%。 核心逻辑： 近期，市场获利了结及宏观面信息冲击带来金银价格巨幅波动。美国经济向好与通胀压力并存，美联储政策不确定性增加。生 产者价格上涨可能迫使美联储维持"中性"货币政策利率的时间长于预期，给金价带来压力。 重要信息： 1、COMEX黄金期货涨6.83%报4970.50美元/盎司，COMEX白银期货涨10.27%报84.92美元/盎司。 2、美联储理事米兰表示，美联储今年需要降息不止100个基点，很期待凯文·沃什担任美联储主席后的表现。不过，里士满联储 主席巴金强调，在通胀尚未完全回落至目标之前，货币政策仍需保持谨慎，以确保劳动力市场的稳定。 3、美国总统特朗普签署政府拨款法案，结束 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - The LPR has remained unchanged for six consecutive months, and monetary policy still has a certain degree of determination. The central bank may maintain reasonable and sufficient liquidity through structural tools or timely reserve requirement ratio cuts. In the bond market, with the interweaving of long and short factors, the wait-and-see sentiment will continue in the short term, and it is more likely to be volatile [2][10][12]. - The Ministry of Finance successfully issued 4 billion euro sovereign bonds in Luxembourg, indicating that China's bond market opening continues to advance. This not only releases a positive signal of China's financial market opening but also has multiple meanings such as constructing diversified foreign currency financing channels and promoting cross - border docking of financial infrastructure [3][14][16]. - In October, the cumulative year - on - year data of real estate investment and sales further weakened, and the real estate market continued to operate at the bottom, with the confidence of real estate enterprises to be restored [4][18]. - The central bank provided liquidity support last week, and the overall capital price showed a downward trend. The issuance scale of the primary credit bond market increased significantly, and the issuance cost mostly declined. In the secondary market, the trading activity continued to decline, and the credit bond yields fluctuated [5][6][35]. Summary by Directory Market Hotspots - **LPR Remains Unchanged for Six Consecutive Months**: The 1 - year LPR is 3.00%, and the 5 - year and above LPR is 3.50%, both remaining unchanged for 6 months. The reasons include the narrowing of the net interest margin of commercial banks, the current low - level interest rate, and the emphasis on "cross - cycle adjustment" in monetary policy. The central bank may use structural tools or reserve requirement ratio cuts to maintain liquidity. The bond market is expected to fluctuate [2][10][12]. - **Foreign - Currency Sovereign Bonds Issued Continuously**: On November 18, the Ministry of Finance issued 4 billion euro sovereign bonds in Luxembourg. The total subscription amount was 100.1 billion euros, 25 times the issuance amount. It is innovative in product types, with diversified investor structures. It has multiple meanings such as reducing exchange - rate risks, providing pricing references, and promoting cross - border docking of financial infrastructure [3][14][16]. Macroeconomic Data - In October, the real estate development climate index was 92.43, a decrease of 0.34 from the previous value. National real estate development investment decreased by 14.7% year - on - year, the housing construction area of real estate development enterprises decreased by 9.4% year - on - year, and the sales area of newly built commercial housing decreased by 6.8% year - on - year, with the decline narrowing compared with the same period last year [4][18]. Money Market - The central bank conducted 5 periods of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations totaling 167.6 billion yuan and 1 period of 6 - month outright reverse repurchase of 80 billion yuan last week. After deducting the maturity amount, the net investment in the open market was 123.4 billion yuan. Except for DR014 and DR1M, most term pledged repurchase rates decreased by 1 - 5bp. The 3 - month Shibor slightly decreased, and the 1 - year Shibor remained unchanged [21]. Primary Market of Credit Bonds - The issuance scale of credit bonds last week was 356.661 billion yuan, an increase of 105.252 billion yuan from the previous value. Except for the private placement corporate bonds, the issuance scale of other bond types increased. The infrastructure investment and financing industry had a net inflow of financing, while the industrial bond financing situation varied. The average issuance cost of credit bonds mostly declined, especially for medium - and high - grade bonds [6][24][25]. Secondary Market of Credit Bonds - The secondary - market spot trading volume of bonds last week was 822.4458 billion yuan, a decrease of 44.3106 billion yuan from the previous period. The average daily spot trading volume decreased to 164.4892 billion yuan. The bond market yields fluctuated. The yields of interest - rate bonds and credit bonds showed different trends, and most of the rating spreads expanded [35]. Appendix - **Credit Risk Events in the Bond Market**: There were events such as bond extensions and defaults of some real estate and media companies, including the interest extension of "H1 Greenview 01" and "H1 Greenview 02" and the principal and interest default of "17 Huawen Media MTN001H" [44]. - **Regulatory and Market Innovation Dynamics**: There were updates to the list of special institutional investors for private placement debt financing instruments, and policies such as including savings bonds (electronic) in the scope of personal pension products [45]. - **Monthly Net Financing of Main Credit Bond Types**: The net financing of different types of credit bonds showed different trends from January 2024 to October 2025 [46].

中信证券认为，贵金属将受益于货币属性和避险情绪共振延续强势。值得一提的是，此前，万国黄金集 团发布公告，预期2025年度公司拥有人应占溢利约14亿至15亿元，同比增长约143%至161%。根据董事 会目前所得资料，预期溢利增加主要是由于黄金产品销售量及价格上升所致。 智通财经APP获悉，万国黄金集团(03939)再涨超8%，截至发稿，涨6.2%，报15.58港元，成交额3.53亿 港元。 消息面上，截至2月4日，现货黄金盘中重回5000美元/盎司关口。瑞银策略分析师在研究报告中指出， 从长期视角看，此次金价回调反而为市场注入健康动能。近日，美联储理事米兰表示，美联储今年需要 降息不止100个基点，很期待凯文·沃什担任美联储主席后的表现。不过，里士满联储主席巴金强调，在 通胀尚未完全回落至目标之前，货币政策仍需保持谨慎，以确保劳动力市场的稳定。 ...

| | | | | 申银万国期货研究所 唐广华（从业资格号：F3010997；交易咨询号：Z0011162） tanggh@sywgqh.com.cn 021-50586292 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | TS2603 | TS2606 | TF2603 | TF2606 | T2603 | T2606 | TL2603 | TL2606 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 102.414 | 102.444 | 105.905 | 105.930 | 108.260 | 108.250 | 111.96 | 112.1 | | | 前日收盘价 | 102.390 | 102.408 | 105.860 | 105.895 | 108.250 | 108.210 | 112.06 | 112.2 | | | 涨跌 | 0.024 | 0.036 | 0.045 | 0.035 | 0.010 | 0.040 | -0.100 | -0.100 | | | 涨跌幅 | 0.02% | 0. ...

当前经济不确定性有所下降，前景呈现改善迹象，但巴金认为潜在风险仍未消除。劳动力市场方面，招聘活动仍集中在少数行业，尚未实现全面均衡复苏； 通胀虽呈回落态势，但尚未触及2%的目标区间，若贸然大幅降息，可能导致通胀反弹，影响此前货币政策调整的成效。基于此，他认为货币政策应保持耐 心，避免调整节奏过快引发经济波动。 巴金还分析了经济韧性的支撑因素。2026年初以来，去年关税及其他政策变动带来的不确定性逐步消退，为经济稳定创造有利条件。结合企业反馈，整体需 求平稳，今年退税落地、汽油价格下跌及宽松货币环境将共同支撑经济。同时，美国消费者抵制企业转嫁关税成本的提价行为，有效抑制物价上涨，助力通 胀回落。 巴金提示，当前美国经济的需求韧性，在很大程度上依赖于人工智能基础设施投资与富裕消费者支出，且这两大支撑因素关联性较强。"这两个领域相互关 联，"他表示，若人工智能投资出现降温，可能对商业投资产生影响；而富裕阶层净资产若出现缩水，其消费能力将随之减弱，进而传导至整体需求，影响 经济韧性。这一判断也进一步支撑了其货币政策需谨慎的立场。 美联储内部围绕当前利率是否仍具限制性的讨论持续升温，官员在降息时机、幅度及政策谨慎度上的 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 大类资产总体反弹，能源化工小幅回落 ——中信期货晨报20260204 中信期货研究所 仲鼎 从业资格号F03107932 投资咨询号Z0021450 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 金融市场涨跌幅 | 2026-02-03 | 品种 | 现价 | 日度涨跌幅 | 周度涨跌幅 | 月度涨跌幅 | 季度涨跌幅 | 年度涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 股指 | 炉深300期货 | 4653 | 1.25 | -1. 23 | -1.23 | 1.16 | 1.16 | | | 上证50期货 | 3033 | 0. 8 | -1.33 | -1.33 | 0.26 | 0. 26 | | | 中证500期货 | 8282 | 3.71 | -0.96 | -0. 96 | 12. 48 | 12. 48 | | | 中证1000期货 | ...