智通财经APP获悉，日本首相高市早苗周二表示，日本尚未实现伴随工资增长的可持续通胀，这表明她 倾向于让日本央行放缓提高利率。高市早苗向日本议会表示，虽然由于食品价格持续上涨，消费者物价 指数仍维持在 3%左右的水平;但日本在实现由稳定的工资增长支撑的可持续且稳定的物价增长方面，目 前仍"只完成了一半的任务"。 高市早苗说道："我希望日本央行能实施适当的货币政策，以实现可持续且稳定的 2%的通胀目标。"她 一直主张采取扩张性的财政和货币政策。 批评人士认为，日本央行加息步伐缓慢导致日元贬值，并推高了进口成本，从而使通胀率长期高于 2% 的目标水平，这一状况持续了超过三年之久。 在上周政策会议后的新闻发布会上，植田和男表示，日本央行的基准预测实现的可能性"有所提高"，这 释放出了迄今最为明确的信号，即最快可能在 12 月就进行加息。 但由于植田和男的言论力度不如部分市场参与者所预期的那样强烈，日元汇率随之下跌。这一情况促使 日本财政大臣发出警告，呼吁不要让日元汇率出现过大幅度的下跌。 高市早苗还表示，她的政府将"有策略地"安排财政支出，以提高家庭收入、改善消费者信心并增强经济 实力。她对降低日本消费税税率这一提议 ...

智通财经APP获悉，澳洲联储周二如期维持关键利率不变，同时警告称经济中通胀压力增强，并重申未来的政策走向将由最新数据决定。澳洲联储货币政策 委员会九名成员一致同意将现金利率维持在3.6%不变，原因是上季度消费者价格指数涨幅超出预期，而劳动力市场依然紧张。该委员会在声明中表示："最 近的通胀数据表明，经济中可能仍存在一些通胀压力。""由于私人需求正在复苏，劳动力市场状况仍显得有些紧张。委员会在本次会议上将现金利率维持在 当前水平是合适的。" 澳洲联储此次利率决议出台之际，高盛集团和澳大利亚联邦银行等机构的经济学家普遍认为，澳洲联储的降息周期已结束。市场普遍预测，澳洲联储下一次 降息将在2026年5月进行。分析人士指出，在家庭现金储备充裕、经济增速预期回升的背景下，通胀再度抬头的风险促使澳洲联储谨慎行事。 在澳洲联储按兵不动之前，美联储已于上周连续第二次降息。尽管包括美联储主席鲍威尔在内的多位政策制定者立场偏向鹰派，但市场仍认为美联储在12月 有可能再次降息。与此同时，市场预计英国央行同样将在周四按兵不动，因为它也在与通胀压力作斗争。 全球就业网站Indeed Inc的经济学家Callam Pickering表示 ...

Monetary Policy - The Federal Reserve lowered the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 3.75% to 4.00%, aligning with market expectations[9] - The European Central Bank (ECB) maintained its benchmark interest rate at 2%, citing stronger-than-expected economic resilience in the Eurozone, with Q3 GDP growth of 0.2%[11] - The Bank of Japan (BOJ) kept its interest rate unchanged, with two members voting against this decision, indicating potential future rate hikes[12] Economic Data - Eurozone's Q3 GDP growth of 0.2% exceeded the expected 0.1%, with France showing a 0.5% increase, the highest in three years, while Germany's growth stagnated[26] - In the U.S., September fiscal revenue was $543.7 billion, a 3.2% year-on-year increase, while expenditures were $345.7 billion, down 22.6% year-on-year, resulting in a fiscal surplus of $198 billion[17] - Japan's industrial and commercial sales showed improvement, with consumer confidence rising for three consecutive months[28] Market Trends - The S&P 500 index rose by 0.71% last week, with a year-to-date increase of 16.30%[5] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield increased by 9 basis points to 4.11%, reflecting market adjustments following the Fed's rate cut[5] - The WTI crude oil price decreased by 1.01% to $61, with a year-to-date decline of 14.78%[5]

Core Viewpoint - Since October, the prices of government bond futures have shown a strong upward trend, reversing the weak performance of the third quarter, primarily due to the central bank's increased open market operations and the resumption of government bond trading, leading to a more relaxed market liquidity environment [1][29]. Group 1: Market Analysis - The average daily trading volume of government bond futures in October was 318,100 contracts, a decrease of 13.76% month-on-month, mainly due to the National Day holiday [4]. - The average open interest increased by 10.49% month-on-month to 678,000 contracts, indicating strong hedging demand in the market [4]. - The central bank's open market operations have resulted in a slight net injection of liquidity, maintaining a relatively stable overall funding rate [4][22]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - The U.S. ADP employment figures for September showed a decrease of 32,000 jobs, which was below expectations and previous values, leading to increased risk aversion [8]. - The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) for September rose by 0.3% month-on-month and 3.0% year-on-year, slightly above the previous value but below market expectations, indicating moderate inflation [8]. - The central bank's decision to cut interest rates by 25 basis points on October 29 was influenced by the soft employment data and the government shutdown, which affected the release of several economic indicators [8]. Group 3: Policy and Future Outlook - The central bank has resumed government bond trading operations to stabilize market expectations and enhance liquidity, which is expected to support government bond prices [26][27]. - The central bank is likely to continue implementing a supportive monetary policy stance, providing both short-term and long-term liquidity arrangements to maintain relatively loose financing conditions [27]. - Despite achieving consensus in U.S.-China trade negotiations, external uncertainties remain, and the domestic economy is facing challenges, particularly in the real estate sector, which continues to show weakness [29].

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) is committed to implementing appropriate monetary policies to support economic stability and growth, focusing on optimizing credit structure and reducing financing costs for the society [3][5]. Group 1: Monetary Policy Implementation - The PBOC will adjust the intensity and pace of policy support based on domestic and international economic conditions, ensuring effective implementation of various monetary policy tools [3]. - In 2023, the PBOC has adopted a moderately accommodative monetary policy, introducing a series of measures to create a favorable monetary environment for economic development [3]. - Key actions include maintaining reasonable growth in money and credit, promoting a decrease in overall financing costs, and optimizing the structure of credit [3]. Group 2: Support for Hong Kong's Offshore RMB Market - The PBOC has been actively supporting the development of Hong Kong as an international financial center, enhancing the connectivity of financial markets between the mainland and Hong Kong [4]. - Efforts include promoting the construction of the offshore RMB market in Hong Kong and improving cross-border financial services such as account opening and payment systems [4]. - The PBOC aims to deepen cooperation and increase financial support for the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area, while also enhancing the level of cross-border investment and financing [4]. Group 3: Credit Structure Optimization and Financing Cost Reduction - The PBOC plans to continue using multiple policy tools to ensure that policies are effectively implemented, thereby releasing policy dividends [5]. - Measures include maintaining adequate market liquidity through various operations and lowering policy interest rates by 0.1 percentage points, with structural tools seeing a reduction of 0.25 percentage points [5]. - Specific support includes a 500 billion yuan re-loan for consumption and elderly care, and an additional 300 billion yuan for technological innovation and transformation, alongside the introduction of risk-sharing tools for innovation bonds [5].

Core Viewpoint - There is a significant divergence within the Federal Reserve regarding the future adjustments of interest rates following two consecutive rate cuts, with some members advocating for larger cuts while others express concerns about rapid policy easing [2]. Group 1: Milan's Easing Stance and Rationale - Federal Reserve Governor Stephen Milan has repeatedly voiced concerns about the current monetary policy being too tight, opposing the decision to cut rates by only 25 basis points in September and October, advocating instead for a 50 basis point cut [3]. - Milan believes that the current policy rate is significantly above the neutral level, which may excessively restrict economic activity [3]. - He expresses confidence in the decline of inflation, suggesting that there is no need to maintain high interest rates [4]. - Milan highlights signs of stress in the credit market, indicating that monetary policy may negatively impact the corporate financing environment [4]. - He warns that maintaining a restrictive policy for too long could increase the risk of an economic recession [4]. Group 2: Cautious Attitudes of Other Officials - In contrast to Milan's aggressive stance, several policymakers, including Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee, adopt a more cautious approach, emphasizing concerns about inflation over labor market issues [5]. - San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly suggests keeping an open mind regarding a rate cut in December, stressing the need to balance inflation control with employment support [5]. - This divergence reflects differences in interpreting economic data, with summer hiring slowdowns raising concerns about the labor market [5][6]. - There remains uncertainty about whether inflation will continue to decline [6]. Group 3: Policy Background and Market Expectations - The Federal Reserve lowered the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to a range of 3.75%-4% in October, marking the second consecutive rate cut following September's decision [7]. - Chairman Jerome Powell emphasized that a further rate cut in December is not guaranteed, indicating that decisions will depend on subsequent economic data [7]. - Milan's transition from the White House to the Federal Reserve has led to discussions about potential political influences on his policy proposals, although he consistently argues from an economic fundamentals perspective, citing objective indicators like "credit market pressure" [7].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints - The short - term view of TL2512 is "oscillation", the medium - term view is "oscillation", and the intraday view is "oscillation with a weak bias", with an overall view of "oscillation" due to a decline in short - term interest rate cut expectations and the existence of long - term easing expectations [1]. - For major Treasury bond futures varieties (TL, T, TF, TS), the intraday view is "oscillation with a weak bias", the medium - term view is "oscillation", and the overall view is "oscillation". In the long - run, there is still an expectation of loose domestic monetary policy, but the possibility of a comprehensive interest rate cut in the short - term is low. Treasury bond futures will mainly oscillate and consolidate in the short - term [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For TL2512, short - term: oscillation; medium - term: oscillation; intraday: oscillation with a weak bias; overall view: oscillation. The core logic is a decline in short - term interest rate cut expectations and the existence of long - term easing expectations [1]. 3.2 Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - Yesterday, Treasury bond futures oscillated and consolidated. In the long - run, there is an expectation of loose domestic monetary policy, but the possibility of a comprehensive interest rate cut in the short - term is low. The price index and employment index sub - items of the latest manufacturing PMI data are weak, indicating insufficient effective domestic demand. A loose monetary environment is needed in the long - run to stabilize the demand side, which strongly supports Treasury bond futures. However, it is not difficult to achieve this year's growth target, and monetary policy usually cooperates with fiscal and industrial policies. So, the possibility of a short - term comprehensive interest rate cut is low, and the upward momentum of Treasury bond futures is limited. In general, Treasury bond futures will mainly oscillate and consolidate in the short - term [5].

中国人民银行副行长陆磊11月4日在2025年国际金融领袖投资峰会上表示，下一步，中国人民银行将根 据国内外经济金融形势和金融市场运行情况，把握好政策支持力度和节奏，抓好各项货币政策工具的实 施和执行，充分释放政策效应。他表示，今年以来，中国人民银行实施适度宽松的货币政策，推出了一 揽子政策措施，为支持经济稳健发展创造适宜的货币金融环境。一是保持了货币信贷合理增长，二是推 动社会综合融资成本下降，三是引导信贷结构调整优化。（上证报） ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The money market in November may continue to fluctuate within a narrow range at a low level, with stability expected. However, the increase in liquidity demand, deposit "migration", and credit expansion may add uncertainty to the money market. The central bank's liquidity injection remains a key factor for the stable operation of the money market [2][78]. - The rigid supply of certificates of deposit (CDs) will increase from November to December. The marginal impact of new policy - based financial instruments on credit and the outflow of high - interest deposits will also add variables to the supply and demand of CDs. There are three possible scenarios for CD market trends [2][3]. Summary by Directory 10 - Month Review: Super - Seasonal Stability of Funds and Price Increase of CDs 1.1 Review: Characteristics of the Money Market in October - **Super - seasonal stability of funds**: In October, the money market was more stable than in previous years. After the cross - quarter period, the money market entered a state of low - level and low - volatility. In the last week of October, due to the resonance of cross - month and tax payment periods, the money market rate increased moderately, but the fluctuation was smaller than the seasonal level. The reasons include limited disturbances and strong liquidity supply [10]. - **Positive net financing and price increase of CDs**: In October, the net financing of CDs was 61.12 billion yuan, turning positive for the first time since June, reaching a new high since the second quarter. The structure was mainly dominated by joint - stock banks and 6 - month CDs. At the beginning of the month, there was a trend of price increase, which may reflect the short - term pressure on the bank's liability side [16][18]. - **The central bank's resumption of bond purchases may bring additional benefits**: On October 27, the central bank governor mentioned the resumption of treasury bond trading operations. The resumption may be due to the objective need for base money injection, and changes in the bond market supply - demand relationship and yield curve shape may no longer be constraints [24]. 1.2 Focus: Reasons for the Price Increase of CDs - **Supply - side dominance**: The price increase of CDs in October was mainly driven by the supply side. Although the non - bank buying power increased, the relative absence of allocation power from state - owned banks and rural commercial banks limited the protection of the CD adjustment market. Once the issuance increased, the price increase pressure emerged [27]. - **Issuance increase leading to price increase**: The supply of CDs increased in October, with the net financing turning positive for the first time since June. Joint - stock banks and 6 - month CDs had significant increases in issuance and net financing. The reasons include the joint - stock banks' need to catch up on the use of the annual quota, cost considerations, and the need to improve the NSFR indicator [28][29]. - **Limited support from bank buying**: The CD buying structure in October showed a pattern of "weak banks and strong non - banks". State - owned banks and rural commercial banks were net sellers for most of the time, providing limited protection for the price increase. In contrast, wealth management products and money market funds increased their buying, which constrained the upward space of CD prices [38]. November Focus: More Variables but Expected Stability 2.1 Review: Limited Impact of Seasonal Factors - **Diverse historical trends**: In different years, the money market rate in November showed different trends. In 2020 and 2022, the money market rate fluctuated greatly, mainly affected by events such as the "Yongmei incident" and wealth management redemptions. In 2021 and 2024, the money market rate was relatively stable, supported by sufficient liquidity supply. In 2023, the money market rate showed a unilateral upward trend, mainly due to increased liquidity demand [46][47][48]. - **Limited impact of seasonal factors**: The impact of seasonal factors on the money market is relatively limited. Fiscal expenditures usually support the money market, while M0 and reserve requirements cause minor disturbances. Non - seasonal factors such as redemption pressure, the "Yongmei incident", and increased government bond issuance have a strong influence on the money market, and the central bank's liquidity injection is a key variable [54]. 2.2 Changes and Constants in November this Year - **Increased non - seasonal disturbances**: In November, the demand for liquidity is expected to be high, with high medium - and long - term liquidity withdrawal, a slight increase in CD maturity compared to the same period last year, and the issuance of 50 billion yuan of local government bond balance limits in the fourth quarter. Structural factors such as the impact of new policy - based financial instruments on credit, the outflow of high - interest fixed deposits, and the trend of deposit currentization and non - bankization may also amplify liquidity demand [2][62]. - **Support from liquidity supply**: Under the current supportive monetary policy, the central bank has a strong intention to protect the money market. The money market has been in a stable and balanced state for a long time, with low - level and low - volatility money market rates. The central bank's resumption of treasury bond trading operations may provide additional support. The probability of a reserve requirement ratio cut in the fourth quarter is also increasing [2][76]. 2.3 Outlook for the CD Market - **Increased supply**: From November to December, the rigid supply of CDs will increase due to the increase in maturity and the possibility of some banks "catching up" to use their annual quota. The marginal impact of new policy - based financial instruments on credit and the outflow of high - interest deposits will add variables to the supply and demand of CDs [2][79]. - **Three scenarios for market trends**: - **Positive scenario**: Supply and demand are balanced, and CD rates decline moderately. With moderate deposit outflow, the bank's liability side is stable, and non - bank institutions are willing to allocate CDs, so the CD supply and demand remain balanced, and the 1 - year CD rate may fall to 1.60% - 1.65% [3][81]. - **Neutral scenario**: Supply and demand are in a tight balance, and CD rates fluctuate more. The bank faces some liability outflow, but the central bank's medium - and long - term liquidity injection provides support. The 1 - year CD rate will remain in the range of 1.65% - 1.70%, but the increase in the proportion of trading - disk funds may amplify the rate fluctuations [4][82]. - **Negative scenario**: Supply increases, and CD rates rise under pressure. With large - scale deposit outflow, the bank needs to issue more CDs, but the non - bank demand is diverted by other assets, so the 1 - year CD rate may exceed 1.70% [5][83].

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