Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings for the industries are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Geopolitical events are causing continuous fluctuations in the market, with risk aversion sentiment influencing precious metals and other commodities [2][8]. - The supply - demand relationship of various commodities is complex, with some facing supply constraints and others dealing with weak demand, leading to different short - term trends [4][5]. - Multiple commodities are recommended for short - term trading due to limited self - driving forces and high uncertainty [4][5]. 3. Summary by Commodity Precious Metals - **Silver**: Risk aversion sentiment is rising, but its boost to silver is limited. Long - term outlook is positive, but short - term upward momentum is weak. Do not over - bullish, and pay attention to the interaction between gold and silver [2]. - **Gold**: Risk aversion drives gold to strengthen again, and the gold - silver ratio may be repaired. There is a possibility of a catch - up rise, but do not over - bullish, and focus on geopolitical disturbances [2]. Energy - **Crude Oil**: After the weakening of geopolitical impacts, the crude oil market is in a dull state, lacking significant driving forces. Short - term trading is appropriate [4]. Chemicals - **PTA**: PTA device restarts and overhauls coexist, with overall开工 decreasing. Demand is weak during the Spring Festival. January's supply - demand is expected to weaken, with limited inventory accumulation in January but high pressure in February. It mainly follows raw material fluctuations, and short - term trading is advisable [5]. - **Methanol**: Domestic methanol is at a high - level of production, while downstream demand is falling. Port inventory has decreased significantly. This week's imports are expected to increase substantially. It is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term [10]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Domestic supply and imports have decreased slightly, but port inventory has increased. Downstream polyester and terminal weaving开工 rates are falling. It is in the traditional off - season, and demand is weak, so it is expected to be weak in the short term [12]. - **Natural Rubber**: Domestic rubber inventory continues to accumulate, and the social inventory has reached a neutral level. The de - stocking rhythm is slower than expected. Technically, it is in short - term adjustment. Short - selling or waiting is recommended in the short term [5]. Metals - **Iron Ore**: Affected by production accidents and new arrivals, the market sentiment is weak. Supply - demand is relatively loose, but there is some support for prices. It is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [7]. - **Silicon Iron**: Supply pressure is not significant, but the resumption of production may accelerate. It is expected to follow the black - sector trend in the short term [8]. - **Copper**: Geopolitical issues increase global trade uncertainty, which may boost copper. Fundamental factors are mixed, and it is expected to maintain high - level fluctuations [8]. - **Aluminum**: Leading enterprises are expanding overseas, but there are risks. Supply - demand factors are mixed, and it is expected to maintain high - level fluctuations in the short term [9]. - **Rebar**: Due to bad weather, demand weakens, and cost support decreases. Steel prices are expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [6]. Others - **Long - term Treasury Bonds**: Support policies in 2026 are expected to promote economic recovery. The stock - bond seesaw may be the main logic, and the fluctuation of treasury bonds will increase [9]. - **Soda Ash**: Float glass production decreases slightly, and inventory drops. The domestic soda ash market is weakly stable, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [11].

格隆汇1月21日｜早盘沪金期货持续走高，现涨超3%。新湖期货研报显示，格陵兰岛事件持续发酵，欧 洲议会冻结此前美欧达成的贸易协议的批准程序，欧美股市均大幅下跌，以金银为代表的贵金属大幅收 涨。当地时间周三美国最高院开审"特朗普诉库克案"，鲍威尔罕见出席，关注美联储独立性情。同时， 贝森特表示特朗普最快将于下周敲定下一任美联储主席人选，前美联储历史沃什当选概率最高。短期来 看，地缘不确定性仍然存在，格陵兰岛事件仍在发酵，避险情绪将对金银等贵金属价格形成一定支撑。 中长期来看，央行购金具有持续性，叠加全球货币的泛滥和去美元化趋势不可逆甚至加速，将继续支撑 贵金属中枢上行，后续贵金属可能仍偏强。 ...

2026年01月21日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-贵金属及基本金属 观点与策略 | 黄金：再创新高 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 白银：关税预期波动 | 2 | | 铜：市场避险，价格承压 | 4 | | 锌：小幅下跌 | 6 | | 铅：海外库存增加，价格承压 | 8 | | 锡：区间震荡 | 9 | | 铝：下方有支撑 | 10 | | 氧化铝：承压下行 | 10 | | 铸造铝合金：跟随电解铝 | 10 | | 铂：补涨行情或许发动 | 12 | | 钯：震荡向上 | 12 | | 镍：印尼言论反复扰动情绪，镍价宽幅震荡运行 | 14 | | 不锈钢：盘面锚定矿端矛盾，镍铁跟涨支撑重心 | 14 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 商 品 研 究 2026 年 1 月 21 日 黄金：再创新高 白银：关税预期波动 刘雨萱 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020476 liuyuxuan023982@gtjas.com 【基本面跟踪】 贵金属基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 昨日夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | | - ...

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 作者： 师橙 市场分析 地缘上，特朗普在被问及如果最高法院就关税问题作出不利裁决，是否会影响美国针对格陵兰岛的安全 政策时，特朗普表示，如果现行关税工具受限，他"可以使用其他方式"，例如通过"许可制度"等替代手 段。他强调，目前正在使用的方式是"最好、最强、最快、最简单、最不复杂的"，但并非唯一选择。美 国最高法院仍未就特朗普关税相关事宜作出裁决。此外，两名加拿大政府高级官员表示，加拿大武装部 队已经模拟了美国对加拿大的军事入侵以及加拿大可能作出的回应。据信，这是加拿大武装部队一个世 纪以来首次模拟美国对该国的攻击。 期货行情与成交量： 2026-01-20，沪金主力合约开于1050.16元/克，收于1060.16元/克，较前一交易日收盘变动1.08%。当日 成交量为41087手，持仓量为129725手。昨日夜盘沪金主力合约开于1063.00元/克，收于1074.20元/克， 较昨日午后收盘上涨1.32%。 2026-01-20，沪银主力合约开于23053.00元/千克，收于23062.00元/千克，较前一交易日收盘变 动-0.55%。当日成交 ...

避险情绪暴涨金银狂飙，美股科技股全线下挫英伟达跌超4%。港股三大指数低开，恒指跌0.34%，国指 跌0.3%，恒生科技指数跌0.7%。权重科技股多数继续跌势，小米跌1%再度刷新阶段新低，重型机械 股、汽车股、光伏股普遍走低，其中中国重汽大跌5.67%。另外，升破4800美元！现货黄金续创历史新 高，黄金股领衔有色金属股上涨，拟私有化退市并分拆光伏业务上市，创维集团飙涨42.66%，索尼和 公司同意成立合资企业，TCL电子大涨近15%。(格隆汇) ...

Market Overview - The U.S. stock market experienced significant declines, with the Nasdaq index dropping over 2% [4]. - The Dow Jones index fell by 1.76% to 48,488.59 points, while the S&P 500 index decreased by 2.06% to 6,796.86 points [4]. - Major technology stocks such as Nvidia and Tesla saw declines of 4.38% and 4.17%, respectively [12][13]. Trade Tensions - President Trump reignited global trade war concerns by threatening to impose tariffs on imports from eight European countries, starting at 10% and increasing to 25% by June 1 [4]. - European leaders have labeled Trump's latest tariff threats as "unacceptable" [5]. Bond Market - The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond rose by 7.94 basis points to 4.293%, while the 30-year bond yield increased by 8.23 basis points to 4.914% [8]. - The dollar index experienced a decline during the trading session [8]. Gold and Silver Prices - Market risk aversion led to new highs in gold and silver prices, with COMEX gold futures surpassing $4,750 per ounce and London silver exceeding $95 per ounce [20]. - The National Bank of Poland announced plans to significantly increase its gold reserves, aiming to rank among the top 10 countries globally in gold holdings [22]. Company-Specific News - Netflix's fourth-quarter revenue was reported at $12.05 billion, exceeding estimates, but the company's first-quarter profit forecast fell short of market expectations, leading to a post-market drop of over 4% [17][18]. - Netflix is revising its acquisition strategy for Warner Bros, proposing an all-cash deal valued at $82.7 billion, maintaining a share price of $27.75 for Warner Bros [18].

1月20日，美国三大指数集体收跌，道指狂泄近900点，标普和纳指重挫逾2%。 板块方面，美黄金股表现强劲，盎格鲁黄金涨近8%，金田涨超7%，埃尔拉多黄金涨超6%，哈莫尼黄金涨逾5%，巴里克黄金涨超2%。 科技股普遍承压，万得美国科技七巨头指数跌3.06%。个股方面，英伟达跌超4%，特斯拉跌逾4%，苹果跌超3%，亚马逊跌逾3%，META跌超 2%，谷歌跌逾2%，微软跌超1%。 与此同时，避险情绪推动黄金价格继续向上突破。纽约尾盘，现货黄金涨1.86%，盘中刷新历史高位至4766.23美元。 | < W | | | 万得美国科技七巨头指数(MAGS) | | O | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 01-20 16:00:00 | | | | 63436.22 昨收 | | | 65436.80 | 成交额 | 744亿 | | -2000.58 -3.06% | | 今开 | 64816.36 | 成交量 | 3.9亿 | | 上 涨 | 0 | 파 물 | 0 | 下 跌 | 7 | | 最高价 | 64826.26 | 市盈率 | 36.6 | 近 ...

【导读】受关税和地缘政治影响，美股收跌，避险资产受资金关注 中国基金报记者 储是 受关税和地缘政治影响，隔夜美股收跌，美债美元同样下跌。避险情绪高涨，黄金白银双双 创下新高。 三大指数大幅下挫 美东时间1月20日（周二），美国总统特朗普要求控制格陵兰，并以加征关税作为威胁，再度 点燃全球贸易战担忧。 桥水基金创始人达利欧在瑞士达沃斯世界经济论坛期间接受媒体采访表示："在贸易逆差和贸 易战的另一面，是资本以及资本战。如果考虑这些冲突，就不能忽视资本战的可能性。换句 话说，人们或许不再像以前那样愿意购买美国债务等资产。" 10Y 美国国债(10YRNOTE) < W 01-20 17:40:04 昨收 4.213 最高 4.309 4.29 52周最高 4.809 4.213 最低 4.213 52周最低 3.835 今开 7.94bp 1.88% 4.190 4.173 5日平均 10日平均 20日平均 4.204 4.134 60日平均 120日平均 4.111 4.233 250日平均 स्त्र स्वे 日K 围K 月K 五日 ■名 疊加 4.308 2.26% assato - a soush of ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|贵⾦属策略⽇报 2026-1-21 避险情绪持续⾼涨，⾦价强势拉升 据央视新闻报道，当地时间20⽇，特朗普再次强调美国要拥有格陵兰岛； 欧盟委员会主席冯德莱恩随即在世界经济论坛表态，丹⻨及格陵兰岛领⼟ 主权和完整不容谈判。市场避险情绪持续⾼涨，万得数据显⽰，⽇内海内 外⾦价上涨均超1%，涨幅明显⾼于⽩银。同⽇，上期所发布通知，宣布 ⾃ 1 ⽉ 22 ⽇收盘结算时调整⻩⾦、⽩银等期货合约保证⾦⽐例及涨跌停 板制度。此外，20⽇晚间，据财联社报道，波兰央⾏已批准购买150吨⻩ ⾦的计划。预计短线⻩⾦或延续震荡偏强运⾏，⽽短线⽩银波动率明显放 ⼤、或⾼位震荡运⾏，需警惕地缘问题上特朗普TACO⻛险。 黄金观点：短期或延续震荡偏强运行，警惕地缘问题上特朗普TACO风 险 逻辑：万得数据显示，受20日格陵兰岛相关局势紧张及关税威胁再度 升级影响，日内海内外金价均涨超1.5%，COMEX金价一度突破4750美 元。据央视新闻报道，当地时间20日，特朗普再次强调美国要拥有格 陵兰岛；欧盟委员会主席冯德莱恩随即在世界经济论坛上表示，丹麦 及格陵兰岛领土主权和完整不 ...

Industry Overview - International gold prices reached a historic high on the 20th, with both New York Mercantile Exchange gold futures and London spot gold prices surpassing $4,700 per ounce [1] - International silver prices also hit a record high, with London spot silver and New York silver futures prices exceeding $95 per ounce [1] Market Analysis - Guotai Junan believes that the rising uncertainty in global geopolitical situations and continuous gold purchases by central banks support a long-term price floor for gold [1] - Although speculative trading has temporarily increased gold price volatility, policies from the Trump administration may further weaken the international credibility of the U.S., indicating that gold prices remain resilient [1] - Galaxy Securities notes that gold and silver prices have historically shown a high correlation, while industrial demand from sectors like photovoltaics and new energy provides solid medium to long-term support for silver prices [1] Company Insights - Zhongjin Gold's core products include gold, with a product range that encompasses gold concentrate, alloy gold, and standard gold [1] - Shengtun Mining focuses on the development and utilization of energy metal resources, concentrating on copper, nickel, and cobalt, while also having gold mining projects [1]