Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the significant rise in gold prices, reaching a historical high of $3,748.62 per ounce, driven by expectations of further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and ongoing geopolitical uncertainties [1][2] - The Federal Reserve's recent decision to cut interest rates by 25 basis points marks its first rate cut since December of the previous year, indicating a willingness to adopt a more accommodative monetary policy [2] - Geopolitical tensions, particularly the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict, have heightened risk aversion among investors, contributing to the support for gold prices [2] Group 2 - Current gold market trends show a stable upward movement, with prices experiencing narrow fluctuations at high levels after a series of increases, indicating potential for further gains [3] - Short-term technical analysis suggests a possible minor adjustment before a second upward movement, as there are signs of divergence in smaller time frames [3] - Investors are closely monitoring upcoming speeches from Federal Reserve officials, especially Chairman Powell, for insights into future monetary policy directions [2]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's monetary policy expectations are leaning towards easing, which supports a bullish trend in precious metals [1] Group 1: Precious Metals Market - Last week, precious metal prices experienced a strong upward trend, driven by expectations of a loose monetary policy from the Federal Reserve ahead of the interest rate meeting [2] - Following the Federal Reserve's announcement of the September interest rate meeting results, precious metal prices saw a brief adjustment but rebounded due to increased risk aversion, maintaining an overall bullish trend [2][49] - The initial jobless claims in the U.S. slightly decreased to 231,000 from 264,000, alleviating concerns about the labor market, although it remains above the average levels of July and August, indicating potential weakness [4] Group 2: Economic Indicators - The U.S. retail sales data showed a year-on-year increase of 5.0% and a month-on-month increase of 0.63% in August, indicating a significant improvement compared to the second quarter [8] - The Federal Reserve raised its GDP growth forecast for 2025 and 2026 by 0.2 percentage points to 1.6% and 1.8%, respectively, while maintaining the inflation forecast for 2025 [14] - The Federal Reserve's dot plot indicates a consensus for two more rate cuts within the year, with expectations for cuts in October and December [15] Group 3: Market Sentiment and Risks - The market sentiment remains cautious due to concerns over U.S. government funding and trade risks between the U.S. and China, which could lead to short-term volatility [2][49] - The SPDR gold ETF holdings increased by 19.76 tons to 994.56 tons, reflecting a bullish sentiment in the market as gold prices rise [28] - The SLV silver ETF holdings rose by 135.53 tons to 15,205.14 tons, indicating a recovery in market sentiment following a period of decline [31]

Core Insights - Gold and silver prices have reached historical highs in 2023, with silver prices surpassing $42 per ounce, marking a 14-year peak and a year-to-date increase of over 40% [1] - The Shanghai Futures Exchange's main silver futures contract has exceeded 10,000 yuan per kilogram, achieving a nearly 13-year high with a year-to-date rise of over 30% [1] - Demand for investment silver bars has significantly increased, while orders for semi-finished jewelry products have decreased due to rising silver prices [1] Industry Demand - Silver is widely used in industrial applications, including electronics, renewable energy, and healthcare, with the World Silver Association projecting that in 2024, industrial demand will account for 58% of total silver demand, jewelry 18%, and investment 16% [1] - The photovoltaic sector is expected to represent 17% of industrial silver demand [1] Market Influences - Global trade policy uncertainties and heightened geopolitical tensions have increased risk aversion, contributing to the rise in gold prices, which in turn has supported the steady increase in silver prices [1] - Policies such as interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve have positively impacted the financial attributes of silver [1]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 贵金属早报—— 2025年9月22日 大越期货投资咨询部 项唯一 从业资格证号： F3051846 投资咨询证号： Z0015764 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 黄金 1、基本面：降息落地盈利离场影响消退，美股"三巫日"成交量激增，金价回升； 美国三大股指齐创收盘新高，欧洲三大股指全线小幅收跌；美债收益率集体上涨， 10年期涨2.49个基点报4.125%；美元指数涨0.30%报97.66，离岸人民币对美元贬值 报7.1196；COMEX黄金期货收涨1.12%报3719.4美元/盎司；中性 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 5 今日关注 基本面数据 持仓数据 5、主力持仓：主力净持仓多，主力多减；偏多 6、预期：今日关注中国9月LPR、国新办新闻发布会、美联储、欧央行和英央行官员 讲话。美联储降息落地盈利离场影响消退，宽松乐观预期回归，叠加中 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings for industries are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Oil**: After geopolitical factors are digested, the oversupply expectation remains the dominant factor for oil prices. OPEC+ is increasing production, and non - OPEC+ supply is high. It is advisable to short at high prices [1]. - **Gold**: The US government shutdown negotiation has increased risk - aversion sentiment, causing a rebound in gold. The Fed's independence is controversial, adding uncertainty. Gold is long - term bullish but requires further short - term observation [1]. - **Coking Coal**: Supply has slightly recovered, but the impact of over - production inspections persists. With pre - holiday stockpiling and futures - spot resonance, coal prices are expected to fluctuate strongly [3]. - **Iron Ore**: Overseas shipments have returned to normal, and supply is stable. Demand is supported in the short term, and there is an expectation of restocking, which strongly supports ore prices [4]. - **Rebar**: With a warm macro - environment, production is decreasing due to low profits. Demand is picking up, and the fundamentals are improving, providing strong support for the price [5]. - **Pig**: The market is currently oversupplied, but after continuous price drops, farmers' resistance is increasing. Short - term long positions can be attempted [6]. - **Palm Oil**: The increase in the reference price supports the futures price, but domestic supply is expected to be loose. It is expected to fluctuate [7]. - **Soybean Meal**: The spot price has room for limited decline. It is advisable to restock at low prices before the holidays, and it is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2970 - 3050 [7]. - **Rubber**: The upstream supply pressure is increasing, and downstream demand is weak. It should be treated with a neutral view [8]. - **Asphalt**: The fundamental contradiction is limited. With low inventory and some demand, the price is expected to fluctuate [9]. - **Methanol**: Domestic production is decreasing, and downstream demand is rising. The port inventory is accumulating. It is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [10]. - **Soda Ash**: The domestic market is adjusting, with high - level inventory decreasing. It is expected to fluctuate, and short - term long positions can be considered on dips [12]. - **Polypropylene**: Supply is still abundant, and demand is slowly improving. It is expected to fluctuate, and short - term long positions can be considered on dips [12]. - **Medium - and Long - Term Treasury Bonds**: The restart of 14 - day reverse repurchase has different impacts on the bond market. It is expected to fluctuate in the short term [13]. - **Silver**: The US infrastructure investment plan increases risk preference, and silver is expected to fluctuate bullishly [13]. 3. Summary by Commodity Energy - **Crude Oil**: As of September 19, the number of US online drilling oil wells was 418, the highest since July. OPEC+ will increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in October, and non - OPEC+ supply is also high [1]. Metals - **Gold**: The US Senate Democrats blocked the Republican's temporary appropriation bill, increasing the risk of a government shutdown and risk - aversion sentiment [1]. - **Iron Ore**: As of a certain date, the inventory of 45 ports was 13,801.08 million tons, a decrease of 48.39 million tons. The daily dredging volume increased by 7.89 million tons [4]. - **Rebar**: The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.98%, and the iron - making capacity utilization rate was 90.35%. Production decreased, and demand increased [5]. Agricultural Products - **Pig**: As of September 19, the average slaughter weight was 123.51 kg, the weekly slaughter rate was 32.06%, and the breeding profit decreased [6]. - **Palm Oil**: Malaysia raised the October reference price, and the export volume from September 1 - 20 increased by 8.7% compared to the same period last month [7]. - **Soybean Meal**: As of September 19, the inventory days of domestic feed enterprises were 9.42 days, an increase of 2.20% from September 12 [7]. Chemicals - **Coking Coal**: The daily coke output of 247 steel mills was 46.65 million tons, and the coking coal inventory was 790.34 million tons, a decrease of 3.39 million tons [3]. - **Rubber**: The upstream supply pressure is increasing, and the downstream tire enterprise inventory is high, limiting restocking enthusiasm [8]. - **Asphalt**: The capacity utilization rate of 77 enterprises was 34.4%, a decrease of 0.5%. The factory and social inventories decreased [9]. - **Methanol**: The domestic capacity utilization rate was 79.91%, a decrease of 4.68%. The port inventory increased by 0.75 million tons [10]. - **Soda Ash**: The weekly output was 74.57 million tons, a decrease of 2.02%. The factory inventory decreased by 2.33% [12]. - **Polypropylene**: The capacity utilization rate was 75.14%, a decrease of 0.29%. The commercial inventory decreased by 3.59 million tons [12]. Financial Products - **Medium - and Long - Term Treasury Bonds**: The central bank adjusted the 14 - day reverse repurchase operation, increasing the release of medium - and long - term liquidity [13]. - **Silver**: The US is considering a $550 billion infrastructure investment fund, which increases risk preference [13].

Core Viewpoint - The precious metals market experienced a rebound, with silver leading the gains, driven by expectations of monetary policy easing and geopolitical uncertainties [1][2] Monetary Policy - Federal Reserve officials indicated a need for continued interest rate cuts in the coming months, with expectations for two more cuts this year [1] - The dollar index rose, reflecting market reactions to the Fed's stance on monetary policy [1] Political Uncertainty - The failure of the Republican funding bill in the House of Representatives to pass in the Senate has heightened the risk of a government shutdown, increasing market volatility [1] - Ongoing political interventions, including a request for a response from a Federal Reserve official to former President Trump, continue to disrupt expectations of monetary policy independence [1] Geopolitical Factors - The European Union has implemented its 19th round of sanctions against Russia, contributing to market uncertainty [1] - In the Middle East, discussions for a ceasefire in Gaza and recognition of Palestine by multiple countries are intensifying geopolitical fragmentation, which is raising risk aversion among investors [1] Market Sentiment - Citigroup has raised its three-month gold price target to $3,800 per ounce, reflecting a long-term optimistic outlook for gold prices [1] - The combination of monetary policy easing expectations, political and geopolitical uncertainties, and bullish sentiment from institutions is providing upward momentum for gold and silver prices [2] Technical Analysis - Technically, New York gold is supported around $3,550 and may test the $3,800 level, while silver, benefiting from both financial and industrial demand, has the potential to rise towards $45 after breaking the $43 mark [2] - Overall, any pullbacks in gold and silver prices are viewed as opportunities for positioning, as both metals remain in a long-term bull market [2]

早上好！先来看重要资讯。 今天下午3点国务院新闻办公室将举行"高质量完成'十四五'规划"系列主题新闻发布会，请中国人民银 行行长潘功胜，金融监管总局局长李云泽，中国证监会主席吴清，中国人民银行副行长、国家外汇局局 长朱鹤新介绍"十四五"时期金融业发展成就，并答记者问。 多国宣布承认巴勒斯坦国 据新华社报道，英国、加拿大和澳大利亚21日分别发表声明，宣布承认巴勒斯坦国。以色列总理内塔尼 亚胡当天表示，以方将在未来几天作出回应。 英国首相斯塔默当天发表视频声明说："为了恢复巴勒斯坦人和以色列人对和平以及'两国方案'的希 望，英国正式承认巴勒斯坦国。" 斯塔默还表示，加沙地带人为制造的人道主义危机和以色列政府不断升级的轰炸行动"完全令人无法容 忍"，"必须结束"。 加拿大总理卡尼在声明中说，加拿大承认巴勒斯坦国是国际社会协调一致努力的一部分，旨在维护"两 国方案"的可行性。 卡尼说，以色列政府持续在约旦河西岸扩建定居点，正在破坏巴勒斯坦建国的前景。以方在加沙地带的 持续行动已造成数万名平民死亡，并引发一场破坏性极强、本可避免的饥荒。以方这些行为都违反了国 际法。 澳大利亚政府21日发表新闻公报，宣布从即日起承认巴勒 ...

Group 1 - The Trump administration requests the U.S. Supreme Court to allow the dismissal of Federal Reserve Governor Cook, indicating potential political influence on monetary policy [1] - Trump expresses disappointment in Putin and emphasizes the need to further lower oil prices, which may impact energy markets and geopolitical dynamics [1] Group 2 - Nvidia invests $5 billion in Intel to collaborate on developing PC and data center chips, signaling a strategic partnership in the semiconductor industry [2] - This investment highlights the competitive landscape in the chip market, where collaboration may be essential for innovation and market share [2] Group 3 - Elon Musk's "Giant Hard Plan" reveals new actions to build a computing cluster from scratch, completing in 6 months what OpenAI and Oracle took 15 months to achieve, showcasing advancements in AI and computing capabilities [3] - This rapid development could disrupt existing timelines in the tech industry and enhance competitive positioning for Musk's ventures [3] Group 4 - The U.S. continues to ease digital asset regulations, with the SEC significantly lowering the application threshold for "digital coin ETFs," which may encourage more investment in cryptocurrencies [4] - This regulatory shift could lead to increased market participation and innovation in the digital asset space [4] Group 5 - The number of initial jobless claims in the U.S. fell significantly to 231,000, a decrease of 32,000 from the previous week, marking the largest drop in nearly four years [5] - The decline in jobless claims may influence precious metals markets, as weaker employment data and expectations of liquidity easing could support gold and silver prices [5] - Despite the short-term benefits already priced in for gold, ongoing employment decline and inflationary pressures may provide continued support for precious metals [5]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Bullish: Gold, Coke, Palm Oil, Soybean Oil (medium to long - term) [1] - Bearish: Aluminum, Zinc, Stainless Steel (long - term), Black Metal, Soda Ash, Pig, Container Shipping to Europe [1] - Neutral: Silver, Copper, Alumina, Nickel (short - term), Threaded Steel, Hot - Rolled Coil, Iron Ore, Coal, Pulp, Log, BR Rubber, PTA, Ethylene Glycol, Short - Fiber, Pure Benzene Styrene, PE, PVC, PP [1] Core Views - The market trading volume has shrunk but remains above 2 trillion this week. With numerous macro events, investors should control risks in stock index positions and focus on adjusting and going long [1]. - The asset shortage and weak economy are favorable for bond futures, but the central bank's short - term interest rate risk warning suppresses the upward trend [1]. - The approaching Fed rate cut in September supports the gold price, while the Fed's interest - rate meeting affects the prices of other commodities such as copper, aluminum, etc [1]. Summary by Categories Macro - finance - Stock index: Control risks in positions and adjust to go long [1] - Treasury bonds: Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable, but short - term interest rate risk warning suppresses the rise [1] Precious metals - Gold: Bullish, supported by the approaching Fed rate cut in September [1] - Silver: Bullish in the short - term, but beware of increased volatility [1] Non - ferrous metals - Copper: Pressured by the approaching Fed meeting, but the downside is expected to be limited [1] - Aluminum: At risk of correction due to some long - position profit - taking [1] - Alumina: Fundamentals are weak, but the price is close to the cost line, so the downside is limited [1] - Zinc: At risk of short - term correction due to increasing social inventories [1] - Nickel: Short - term shock is strong, but more news is needed to break through upwards. Long - term, the surplus of primary nickel still exerts pressure [1] - Stainless steel: Short - term shock is strong, but long - term, the surplus of primary nickel still exerts pressure [1] Industrial silicon and related products - Industrial silicon: Capacity is expected to decline in the long - term, and terminal installation willingness is low [1] - Polysilicon: There are expectations of production cuts [1] - Lithium carbonate: The expected resumption of production in a lithium mine and limited subsequent replenishment space [1] Black metals - Threaded steel: Valuation returns to neutral, industry drive is unclear, and macro drive is positive [1] - Hot - rolled coil: Similar to threaded steel [1] - Iron ore: Short - term fundamentals are not optimistic, with supply recovery and possible weakening demand, and high inventory [1] - Black metal: Supply surplus pressure persists, and the price is under pressure despite marginal improvement in peak - season demand [1] - Soda ash: Weak reality, large supply surplus pressure, and price under pressure [1] - Coking coal: The bottom support is relatively strong, and the price is expected to rise in the future. Consider partial profit - taking for long positions [1] - Coke: Bullish, with similar logic to coking coal [1] Agricultural products - Palm oil: The flood in Malaysia's Sabah state brings supply - side disturbances, and it is recommended to go long or buy out - of - the - money call options [1] - Soybean oil: The de - stocking expectation in the fourth quarter remains unchanged, and it is bullish in the long - term. Consider going long on volatility [1] - Rapeseed oil: Consider the positive spread strategy of contract 11 - 1 [1] - Cotton: New cotton is expected to be abundant, and the acquisition game during the new - cotton acquisition period will be the focus [1] - Sugar: The price is expected to be weak in shock, but the short - term downside is limited [1] - Corn: The C01 contract is expected to be weak in the short - term [1] - Soybean meal: The overall expectation is neutral, and the cost side provides support [1] Energy and chemical products - Crude oil: Affected by geopolitical tensions, OPEC+ production increase, and Fed rate - cut expectations [1] - Fuel oil: Similar to crude oil [1] - Natural rubber: Supported by raw material costs, and the number of warehouse receipts is significantly reduced compared to the same period in previous years [1] - BR rubber: The market is in shock. Pay attention to inventory de - stocking and autumn equipment maintenance [1] - PTA: Production increases, the basis drops rapidly, and the downstream polyester operating rate rises to 91% [1] - Ethylene glycol: The basis strengthens, but the new device brings pressure [1] - Short - fiber: Factory devices return, and the willingness to deliver warehouse receipts weakens [1] - Pure benzene styrene: Supply increases, and the domestic import pressure of pure benzene rises [1] - PE: The price is in shock and weak [1] - PVC: The supply pressure increases, and the price is in shock and weak [1] - PP: The peak - season demand is not met, and the inventory accumulates [1]

【基本面消息】 数据显示，9月17日上海黄金现货价格报价834.60元/克，相较于期货主力价格（835.08元/克）贴水0.48 元/克。 【黄金期货最新行情】 金瑞期货： | 9月17日 | 收盘价（元/克） | 当日涨跌幅 | 成交量（手） | 持仓量（手） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪金主力 | 835.08 | 0.36% | 164311 | 96007 | 上一个交易日贵金属价格普遍上涨，COMEX黄金期货涨0.23%报3727.5美元/盎司，COMEX白银期货跌 0.19%报42.88美元/盎司。降息在即，美元进一步走弱利好黄金。当前贵金属的驱动一方面来自流动性 宽松预期的发酵，8月非农数据不及预期，市场已经完全计入了9月开始降息以及年内降息3次的预期。 另一方面，美联储独立性、特朗普贸易政策前景以及地缘政治的不稳定导致市场不确定性增加，避险情 绪提升也使黄金受益。短期来看，黄金的利好已经基本充分交易。但就业下行，通胀上行，流动性宽松 的预期下，金银价格预计仍将会获得一定利好支撑。Comex黄金运行区间【3500，3800】美元/盎司， 沪金运行区间 ...