英国央行行长贝利：GDP曾一度低迷，随后在年内有所回升。 ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The discussion primarily revolves around the **US economy** and its labor market dynamics, influenced by recent **tariff policies** and their implications on economic activity and Federal Reserve (Fed) monetary policy. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Labor Market Resilience**: Nonfarm payroll employment increased by **177k** in April, surpassing expectations, indicating a robust labor market despite tariff concerns [2][35] 2. **Unemployment Rates**: The unemployment rate remained steady at **4.2%**, with underemployment at **7.8%**, suggesting stability in labor supply and demand [2][35] 3. **GDP Performance**: The advance estimate for Q1 showed a **0.3% q/q saar decline** in real GDP, following a **2.4% q/q saar gain** in Q4, attributed to strong domestic spending but offset by increased imports [13][35] 4. **Inflation and Cost Pressures**: There are signs of cost-push inflation pressures due to supply chain disruptions and tariff impacts, with expectations of rising inflation into the summer months [4][20] 5. **Fed Rate Cut Timing**: The anticipated timing for the next Fed rate cut has been pushed back to **July**, as current labor market data does not indicate an urgent need for action [4][8][26] 6. **Job Cuts and Hiring Trends**: Despite solid job gains, there are indications of potential job cuts, with **600k** job cuts announced in 2025, nearly double the previous year, particularly in the government sector [6][25] 7. **Consumer Spending Dynamics**: Consumer spending showed a **1.8% q/q saar increase** in Q1, driven by a surge in stockbuilding and a **22.5% q/q saar jump** in equipment investment, reflecting a frontrunning dynamic ahead of tariffs [13][35] 8. **Supply Chain Challenges**: The ISM manufacturing PMI slightly declined to **48.7**, indicating ongoing supply chain pressures and production disruptions, particularly related to tariffs [20][35] Additional Important Insights 1. **Mixed Economic Signals**: The data flow presents mixed signals, with some indicators showing resilience while others point to potential weaknesses, particularly in job openings which fell to a four-year low of **7.2 million** [3][5] 2. **Consumer Confidence**: The Conference Board's consumer confidence index fell to **86.0**, the lowest since May 2020, reflecting pessimism about future job conditions and income [34] 3. **Inventory Dynamics**: Stockbuilding is expected to delay the onset of inflation pressures, as auto dealers have not yet adjusted prices for existing stock [4][19] 4. **Future Economic Projections**: The outlook for GDP growth has been adjusted, projecting a **1.0% q/q saar gain** in Q2, followed by a downturn in H2 2025 [23][25] This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, highlighting the current state of the US economy, labor market dynamics, and the anticipated actions of the Federal Reserve in response to evolving economic conditions.

Group 1: Hot News - The US economy contracted for the first time since 2022 in Q1, with annualized inflation-adjusted GDP down 0.3%, far below the average growth rate of about 3% in the past two years. Net exports dragged GDP by nearly 5 percentage points, and consumer spending grew at only 1.8%, the weakest since mid-2023. Business equipment spending was the only bright spot, growing at an annualized rate of 22.5% [3] - In April, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.0%, down 1.5 percentage points from the previous month. Non-manufacturing PMI and composite PMI were 50.4% and 50.2% respectively, remaining in the expansion range. High-tech manufacturing and related industries continued to expand, and manufacturing enterprises focusing on domestic sales had stable production and operations [3] - The US and Ukraine jointly created the Ukraine Reconstruction Investment Fund. The ownership and control of resources in Ukraine remain with Ukraine. The fund will be jointly managed by the two countries with a 50:50 ratio, and neither has a dominant voting right. The fund will be filled entirely by new license revenues [4] - OPEC+ announced that 8 participating countries will increase production by 411,000 barrels per day in June. The gradual increase may be suspended or reversed depending on market conditions [4] - US employment growth was strong in April, with non-farm payrolls increasing by 177,000 (expected 130,000), and the unemployment rate remaining stable at 4.2%, indicating that the uncertainty of Trump's trade policy has not significantly affected recruitment plans [4] Group 2: Commodity Market - The capital proportions of different commodity sectors are as follows: non-metallic building materials 2.52%, precious metals 29.74%, oilseeds 12.51%, soft commodities 3.18%, non-ferrous metals 19.54%, coking coal and steel minerals 12.98%, energy 2.70%, chemicals 12.36%, grains 1.91%, and agricultural and sideline products 2.56% [5] - Key commodities to focus on include urea, crude oil, plastic, glass, and lithium carbonate [6] Group 3: Asset Performance - The daily, monthly, and annual percentage changes of major indices are as follows: Shanghai Composite Index -0.23%, 0.00%, -2.17%; SSE 50 -0.47%, 0.00%, -1.92%; CSI 300 -0.12%, 0.00%, -4.18%; CSI 500 0.48%, 0.00%, -1.64%; S&P 500 0.15%, 1.46%, -3.93%; Hang Seng Index 0.51%, 1.74%, 12.19%; Germany DAX 0.32%, 3.77%, 17.26%; Nikkei 225 0.57%, 2.18%, -7.68%; UK FTSE 100 0.37%, 1.19%, 5.18% [8] - The performance of major commodities shows different trends, such as WTI crude oil -3.69% daily, -1.63% monthly, -20.41% annually; London spot gold -0.85% daily, -1.45% monthly, 23.49% annually; LME copper -3.34% daily, 2.64% monthly, 6.65% annually [8]

首席点评：新关税担忧引发市场波澜 中国制造业与非制造业 PMI环比双降，需求端收缩显著，但生产端仍处相对高位（49.8%），新出口订 单指数下跌至44.7%，后续出口增长存疑，短期"抢出口"虽支撑货运量增1.3%，但外需疲态已显现。内 需韧性分化，订单指数微降2.3%，消费品行业PMI仅降0.6%，消费支撑力较强。美国一季度GDP年化下 降0.3%，不过自3月市场已经对一季度的经济萎缩有一定心理准备。4月的非农数据显示美国就业市场 仍然强劲，此背景下5月美联储大概率继续按兵不动，同时市场对6月降息的预期有所降温。关税谈判方 面仍未有明显进展，而昨日特朗普表示要对非美国制作影片征收100%关税引发关税规模再度升级的担 忧。 重点品种： 原油 、贵金属、铜 原油： 欧佩克及其同盟八国进一步加快增产，引发对更多供应的担忧，欧美原油期货继续下跌。八个 参与国将在 2025年6月从2025年5月所需的生产水平开始实施每天41.1万桶的生产调整，这相当于三个月 的增量。欧佩克及其减产同盟国八国加速减产的决定公布后，国际油价一度下跌近5%。但是中东局势 有恶化的可能，尾盘国际油价缩窄跌幅。以色列总理内塔尼亚胡发誓要对伊朗进 ...

❑ 五一假期期间全球股票市场行情突出 5 月 1 日至 2 日内地金融市场休市，全球其他金融市场正常进行交易，整体来看： 科技股主线行情表现突出，恒生科技与纳斯达克分别领涨港股及美股市场，带动 欧洲及其他亚洲股票市场整体收涨。债券市场行情分化，2 年美债、10 年美债收 益率分别上行 23BP 及 16BP，日债收益率下行，德债收益率基本持平。美元指数 有所反弹，兑日元、欧元、英镑等主要货币均有所升值，但美元兑离岸人民币出 现一定幅度贬值迹象。商品市场黄金、白银价格再度出现较大幅度下跌。 ❑ 五一假期要闻汇总 美国 4 月 PCE 同比增长 2.3%，为 2024 年 10 月以来新低，小幅超过预期值 2.2%， 环比零增长持平预期。更为市场关注的核心通胀层面，4 月核心 PCE 同比增长 2.6% 持平预期，环比零增长低于预期，指向核心通胀边际进一步降温，关税冲击对美 国通胀的影响暂未显现。4 月新增非农就业 17.7 万人，预期 13 万人，4 月失业率 录得 4.2%，与前值及预测值持平，平均时薪同比及环比增速均较前值出现放缓迹 象，显示美国劳动力市场依旧保持较强韧性。抢出口效应带动下，美国 2025 ...

印尼第一季度GDP环比-0.98%，预估为-0.90%。 印尼第一季度GDP同比+4.87%，预估为+4.92%。 ...

一季度各大城市GDP相继出炉。 前十强排名依旧，但仔细观察发现：武汉与杭州的差距拉大，并被南京步步紧逼。 但在社会消费品零售总额方面，武汉却颇为亮眼，连续赶超南京、苏州和深圳，排在第六位。 今年GDP前十强城市的竞争让人充满期待！#武汉GDP 01 2025年一季度各城市的经济数据陆续披露。 武汉几乎要掉出十强。 可以说，武汉面临着标兵渐远，追兵渐近的局面。 GDP前十城市排名依然是上海、北京、深圳、重庆、广州、苏州、成都、杭州、武汉、南京。 | | | | 2025年一季度GDP十强城市数据 单位: 亿元 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 城市 | 2025第一季度 | 2024第一季度 | 增量 | 名义增长率 | 实际增长率 | | 上海市 | 12735.06 | 12155 | 580.06 | 4.77% | 5.1% | | 北京市 | 12159.9 | 11519 | 640.9 | 5.56% | 5.5% | | 深圳市 | 8950.49 | 8314.98 | 635.51 | 7.64% | 5.2% | | 重庆市 | 7 ...

中国香港一季度GDP同比初值 3.1%，预期 2.1%，前值 2.4%。 ...

智通财经5月1日电，美国财长贝森特表示，GDP下降可能是由于进口商品的库存积压所致；预计GDP数 据将被修正。 ...

此前，由选举预测机构"决策台总部"（Decision Desk HQ）与《国会山报》（The Hill）联合发布的民意 调查也反映出类似趋势。报告指出，在当前美国面临经济困难和政治分裂的背景下，特朗普的支持率已 跌至其所谓"第二任期"以来的最低水平。 新华财经北京4月30日电（崔凯）美国经济在2025年第一季度出现了萎缩，根据美国商务部公布的初步 数据，第一季度实际GDP年化季率初值收缩了0.3%。这一结果主要归因于企业为了规避预期中的成本 上涨而大量囤积进口商品，这直接导致了贸易逆差的扩大，并对经济增长构成了拖累。 尽管消费支出仍保持温和增长，显示出一定程度的消费者信心，但整体经济前景依然显得黯淡。 此次GDP数据的公布正值特朗普执政百日之际，无疑加剧了公众对其经济政策有效性的质疑。去年11 月，特朗普正是利用选民对经济状况的担忧赢得了选举。但现在，随着消费者信心接近五年低点，商业 情绪也急剧恶化，民众对特朗普政府的不满情绪正在上升。 一项由哥伦比亚广播公司（CBS）与YouGov联合开展的最新民意调查显示，超过半数美国人对特朗普 的执政表现持负面评价。调查结果显示，在受访者中，有55%的人对特朗普担任总统 ...