从中期来看，原油市场供需格局调整将主导价格走势。EIA预测，2025年底布伦特原油价格或降至61美 元/桶，2026年进一步下探至59美元/桶，主要基于全球石油库存上升及OPEC+增产的压制。6月 OPEC+会议确认加速推进增产计划，预计9月前完成原定一年半的220万桶/日增产目标，供应宽松预期 持续强化。 需求端则呈现结构性分化。美国夏季出行旺季提振汽油及航空煤油消费，商业原油库存超预期去化；中 国则因汽柴油库存低位、高温及自驾游需求上升，支撑汽油消费稳中向好。然而，一德期货指出，全球 炼厂利润收缩及欧美汽柴油需求峰值已现，边际走弱风险逐渐显现。此外，美联储降息预期升温或短期 提振风险偏好，但难以扭转原油中长期过剩趋势。 综合来看，2025年三季度布伦特油价或围绕60美元/桶震荡，地缘风险反复与OPEC+增产节奏成为关键 变量。若中东局势彻底降温，旺季结束后油价中枢或进一步下探至60美元以下，回归基本面主导的偏空 逻辑。 来源:金融界 近期国际原油市场波动加剧，地缘政治风险与供需基本面博弈成为核心矛盾。2025年6月，中东局势动 荡主导油价先扬后抑，而机构普遍认为，随着伊以停火协议达成及OPEC+增产推进， ...

Wind数据显示，截至当地时间7月11日收盘，伦敦银现货价格上涨3.77%，每盎司价格站上 38美元；COMEX白银期货价格上涨4.74%，每盎司价格突破39美元。白银现货及期货价格 双双创出近14年来新高，今年以来涨幅均超过32%。 白银暴涨势头猛 珠宝交易中心负责人王鸿媛表示，投资银条6月份较5月份销售额提升了20％。现在消费者普 遍对于一公斤的投资银条热度比较高，500克的银条也是消费者比较热衷的。 白银价格上涨主要受哪些方面影响？ 白银价格上涨是避险情绪与工业需求共同作用的结果 。全球地缘政治局势持续紧张，使得市 场避险情绪空前高涨。 黄金价格率先启动，白银等贵金属尽管前期涨幅滞后，但在避险需求 的扩散下，补涨行情汹涌来袭。 工业需求增加也是白银价格上涨的主要原因 。 白银在光伏电池中扮演着举足轻重的角色，光 伏产业发展迅猛，成为白银需求增长的核心驱动力；新能源汽车产业的蓬勃发展同样为白银 需求注入强劲动力，根据世界白银协会统计数据，2024年，混动汽车与纯电汽车的单位白银 用量较传统汽车分别提升了21％和71％。 与此同时， 全球主要产银国的矿山产量增长乏力，难以满足日益增长的市场需求 。 世界白 ...

Price Trends - Import iron ore prices have increased compared to the previous week, with 62% grade iron ore priced at 95.70 USD/ton, up 1.38% from June 27, and 65% grade at 104.98 USD/ton, up 1.72% [1][2] - Domestic iron ore prices have seen a slight decrease, with 66% grade iron concentrate priced at 869 RMB/ton, unchanged from June 27 [1] Supply and Demand - Iron ore arrivals at Chinese ports totaled 24.135 million tons from June 23 to June 29, a decrease of 3.594 million tons week-on-week [2] - The total iron ore inventory at 45 ports in China was 138.784 million tons as of July 4, a decrease of 518,300 tons [3] - The average daily steel mill operating rate was 83.46%, a decrease of 0.36 percentage points week-on-week [3] Shipping and Freight Costs - The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) was reported at 1436 points, down 85 points week-on-week [2] - Freight costs from Australia to Qingdao were 7.39 USD/ton, an increase of 0.23 USD/ton, while freight from Brazil decreased to 18.58 USD/ton, down 0.12 USD/ton [3] Steel Production - In late June, key steel enterprises produced 21.29 million tons of steel, with an average daily production of 2.129 million tons, a decrease of 0.9% week-on-week [4] - The estimated daily production of steel nationwide was 2.75 million tons, a decrease of 0.9% [4]

Core Viewpoint - The Shanxi coking coal market is experiencing a stable operation with slight supply decreases, while the overall price index remains unchanged compared to the previous period, but shows a significant decline year-on-year [6]. Price Index Summary - The Shanxi coking coal price index stands at 1124 points, unchanged from the previous period, but down 847 points compared to the same period last year [6]. - Specific prices for various types of coking coal include: - Top-grade metallurgical coke wet quenching at 1179 points - Top-grade metallurgical coke dry quenching at 1452 points - Standard-grade metallurgical coke wet quenching at 1029 points - Standard-grade metallurgical coke dry quenching at 1184 points - All these prices remain stable compared to the last period [6]. Market Dynamics - The coking coal market is showing positive trends, with some coking plants raising prices by 50-55 yuan per ton [6]. - Coking enterprises are currently facing losses, with an average loss of 63 yuan per ton and a capacity utilization rate dropping to 72.72%, down 0.48 percentage points from the previous week [6]. - Steel mill demand is improving, leading to smooth shipments from coking enterprises and a rapid decrease in inventory levels [6]. Pricing and Inventory - The mainstream price for standard-grade dry quenching coke in Shanxi is between 1210-1285 yuan per ton [6]. - The spot market for coking coal at ports is stable to slightly strong, with port inventories remaining stable [6]. - The current mainstream cash out-of-port price for standard-grade metallurgical coke is between 1250-1300 yuan per ton [6]. Future Outlook - The combination of smooth shipments, low inventory levels, and a bullish sentiment in the futures market is expected to support a stable to slightly strong operation in the coking coal market in the short term [6].

其次，激发有效需求，拓展市场新空间。在当前经济形势下，促进消费潜力释放已成为推动经济持续健 康发展的重要引擎。今年以来，为了提振消费市场，持续出台了一系列扩内需政策措施，涵盖了减税降 费、优化消费环境、促进消费升级等多个方面。在部分消费品行业，如汽车、家电等，扩内需政策已经 产生了显著效果。为了满足消费者日益增长的多样化需求，还应继续加强政策引导和支持，鼓励新型消 费业态发展。如数字消费、绿色消费、健康消费等新兴业态正逐渐崛起，有望成为消费市场的新亮点。 物价是供需关系的晴雨表。从供给方面来看，我国生产能力强大，同时部分传统领域也存在一定低效产 能。而某些高端领域和关键环节仍存在短板，导致供给结构尚不足以完全满足经济动能的变化。从需求 方面来看，随着居民消费观念的转变，消费者对产品和服务的需求日益多样化、个性化，对供给侧提出 了更高的要求。为了解决这一供需结构性矛盾，需要加强供需两侧政策协同。 首先，优化供给结构，增强产业适配性。提升供给质量和效率，是推动增长动能转换、实现经济高质量 发展的必由之路。这就需要继续深化供给侧结构性改革，用改革的办法推进结构调整，扩大有效供给， 提高供给结构对需求变化的适应性和灵 ...

Group 1 - The article discusses the projections for soybean and oilseed production, highlighting changes in planting area, yield, and total supply for the 2024/25 and 2025/26 seasons [1][2] - For soybeans, the harvested area is expected to decrease slightly from 86.1 million acres to 82.5 million acres, while the yield remains stable at 50.7 bushels per acre for 2024/25 [1] - The total soybean production is projected to decline from 4,366 million bushels to 4,335 million bushels in 2025/26, with a corresponding decrease in total supply from 4,734 million bushels to 4,705 million bushels [1] Group 2 - The oil production is forecasted to remain stable at 28,800 million pounds for 2024/25, with a slight increase in total supply from 30,851 million pounds to 31,871 million pounds in 2025/26 [2] - Domestic usage of oil is expected to decrease from 26,800 million pounds to 26,700 million pounds in 2024/25, while biodiesel usage is projected to drop significantly from 12,900 million pounds to 12,250 million pounds [2] - The total demand for oil is anticipated to decline slightly from 29,400 million pounds to 29,300 million pounds in 2024/25, with an increase in ending stocks from 1,451 million pounds to 1,531 million pounds in 2025/26 [2]

亚洲棕榈油价格飙升至两个月高点，产量下降需求增加，市场供需如何影响未来走势？季节性因素将如 何影响市场？ 相关链接 期货热点追踪 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the pressure on soybean and corn futures ahead of the USDA supply and demand report, questioning whether the market can find hope in export demand [1] Group 1: Market Analysis - Soybean and corn futures are facing downward pressure as the USDA supply and demand report approaches [1] - The market is looking for signs of recovery through potential export demand [1] Group 2: USDA Report Implications - The upcoming USDA report is critical for understanding supply and demand dynamics in the agricultural sector [1] - Market participants are closely monitoring the report for insights that could influence future pricing and demand trends [1]

Report Information - Report Date: July 11, 2025 [2] - Report Title: Energy and Chemical Products Weekly - Crude Oil [2] - Researcher: Liu Chenrui [2] - Reviewer: Tang Yun [2] Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report. Core Viewpoint - Absolute low inventory and peak season support the downside of oil prices. There is a consensus on the weakening of the medium - term fundamentals, but it is necessary to observe the actual production increase of OPEC and guard against the time point of the outbreak of US trade negotiation risks [5]. Summary by Directory 1. Price and Financial Data - **Crude Oil Price**: The report presents the price trends of Brent crude oil and WTI crude oil over a long - term period, but no specific numerical analysis is provided in the text [11][12]. - **CFTC Positioning Data**: It shows the historical data of WTI futures and options management fund positions, including long, short, and net positions, but no specific numerical analysis is provided in the text [13][14][15]. 2. Supply - **US Crude Oil Supply**: US production is 1338.5 barrels per day, with a环比 change of - 0.36% and a同比 change of 0.64%. The net import volume of US crude oil is 325.6 barrels per day, with a环比 change of - 29.43% and a同比 change of 17.93%. The report also shows the trends of US domestic crude oil production, net import volume, and rig platform numbers [8][18][19]. - **OPEC Crude Oil Supply**: It shows the production trends of OPEC, Saudi Arabia, Iran, and Iraq from 2021 - 2025 [21][22]. - **Non - OPEC Crude Oil Supply**: It shows the production trends of Russia, Canada, and Brazil from 2023 - 2025 [23][24]. 3. Demand - **US Petroleum Demand**: US refinery processing volume is 1700.6 barrels per day, with a环比 change of - 0.58% and a同比 change of - 0.60%. The US refinery operating rate is 94.7%, with a环比 change of - 0.2 pts and a同比 change of - 0.7 pts. The report also shows the seasonal trends of US refinery operating rate, crude oil processing volume, gasoline and diesel apparent demand [8][28][29]. - **Global Refinery Maintenance Seasonality**: It shows the seasonal trends of global, North American, and Northwest European CDU maintenance volumes [31][32][34]. - **Domestic Crude Oil Demand**: It shows the seasonal trends of China's crude oil monthly import volume, daily processing volume, and the operating rates of major refineries and Shandong local refineries [35][36]. 4. Inventory - **Global Crude Oil Supply - Demand Forecast**: The July EIA monthly report shows that the annual inventory accumulation rate in 2025 is 107 barrels per day, and provides the supply - demand data for each quarter of 2025 [40]. - **US Petroleum Inventory**: It shows the seasonal trends of various US petroleum inventories, including total inventory, refined oil inventory, commercial crude oil inventory, Cushing crude oil inventory, and Gulf of Mexico crude oil inventory [42][44][45]. - **US Refined Oil Inventory**: It shows the seasonal trends of US gasoline, diesel, and aviation kerosene inventories [48][49][51]. - **China's Crude Oil Inventory and Global Floating Storage**: It shows the trends of INE crude oil inventory, global crude oil floating storage, global water - borne crude oil, and global in - transit crude oil [52][53]. - **Other Regions' Petroleum Inventory**: It shows the seasonal trends of ARA European crude oil inventory, Northwest European refined oil inventory, and Singapore refined oil inventory [54][55]. 5. Spreads and Premiums - **Global Regional Crack Spreads**: It shows the seasonal trends of crack spreads in the US Gulf, DTD trans - Atlantic, Dubai, and Minas [59][60]. - **Refined Oil Crack Spreads**: It shows the seasonal trends of RBOB - WTI, HO - WTI, Gasoline - Dubai (SING), and Gasoil - Dubai (SING) [62][63]. - **Futures Calendar Spreads**: It shows the spreads of WTI and Brent futures [64][65]. - **Regional Spreads**: It shows the spreads of WTI - Brent, SC - Brent, EFS, and SC - WTI [66][67]. - **Freight Rates**: It shows the freight rates from the Arabian Gulf to Ningbo, China, and from Arabia to Singapore and the Arabian Gulf to Japan [68][69]. - **Saudi OSP**: It shows the OSPs of Saudi medium, heavy, and light crude oils exported to different regions [70][71]. - **Different Oil Grade Premiums**: It shows the premiums of Midland WTI, WCS - WTI, and Urals - Dated Brent [73][74][75].

Group 1 - Guangdong Province has issued a guideline prohibiting the registration of "small property houses" and other illegal constructions, effective from August 4, 2025, which aims to promote the purchase of legitimate properties and regulate the real estate market [1] - Shandong Binzhou is collecting existing commercial housing to convert into affordable housing, which is expected to optimize the supply-demand structure in the real estate market and help companies reduce inventory [2] - Vanke has pledged 117 million shares of its subsidiary, Wanwu Cloud, to Shenzhen Metro Group as collateral for a loan, reflecting the company's strategy to stabilize its cash flow amid current market conditions [3] Group 2 - Times China has disclosed a debt restructuring plan involving approximately $2.9 billion, with over 85.67% of creditors agreeing to the plan, which could alleviate financial pressure and serve as a model for other distressed real estate companies [4] - The CEO of Zhuhai Wanda Commercial Management, Xiao Guangrui, has resigned, and the company has appointed new leadership, indicating a potential shift in strategic direction following recent management changes [5]