"反内卷"，是近年来一个高频热词。自2024年7月中央政治局会议首次提出"防止内卷式恶性竞争"以 来，"反内卷"已从社会热词上升为国家的重要战略命题。 1月25日，在广东省政协十三届四次会议首场"委员通道"上，肇庆市工商联副主席、广东高登铝业集团 执行总裁李婧讲述她作为一名民营企业家对企业"内卷式竞争"的感受："在无序竞争中，企业陷入'你降 一点，我降更多'的恶性循环，利润不断缩水，无力投入研发、难以提升品质，整个行业深陷低效甚至 无效发展的困境。"李婧指出这种"内卷"，卷掉的不仅仅是企业利润，更是创新动力和高质量发展未 来。 为此，她提出了三点建议：一是以政策为"导航仪"，引导资本与创新流向"星辰大海"。 政府强化产业 政策精准引导，除普惠性减税降费外，还要通过专项基金、创新券、首台套补贴等政策工具，为企业提 供清晰预期与实质支持，将企业从"价格战"红海引向"价值战"蓝海。 二是以平台为"助推器"，支撑企业携手攀登"技术高坡"。鼓励链主企业牵头，联合高校、科研院所及上 下游中小企业组建创新联合体，政府搭建公共技术服务平台，降低中小企业研发成本与风险。推动企业 从"单打独斗"转向"协同创新"，把"内卷"的精力 ...

Economic Overview - In 2025, China's GDP grew by 5.0%, supported by net exports contributing 1.6 percentage points to the growth[10] - Domestic demand remains insufficient, with fixed asset investment declining by 3.8% year-on-year, significantly down from 2024[12] Consumer Behavior - The marginal propensity to consume (MPC) decreased to 0.61 by the end of 2025, down 0.08 from 2024[21] - Per capita consumer spending reached 29,000 yuan in 2025, a growth of 4.4% compared to 2024, marking the lowest growth rate since 2023[21] Employment and Income Trends - The average number of employees in industrial enterprises fell by 1.5% year-on-year as of November 2025, indicating a decline in employment absorption capacity[37] - The average disposable income per capita was 43,000 yuan in 2025, reflecting a 5.0% increase from 2024, but the growth rate is slowing[32] Policy Implications - The "惠民生" (benefit people's livelihood) policy is emphasized as a key strategy to boost consumption in 2026, focusing on income growth and consumer support[46] - The government plans to implement measures to enhance consumer capacity, including support for small and medium enterprises and expanding investment channels[46][47] Risks and Challenges - Geopolitical uncertainties and persistent inflation in the U.S. pose risks to economic stability and consumer confidence[52][53] - The slow recovery of market expectations among domestic entities may hinder the effectiveness of counter-cyclical policies in 2026[54]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese government is enhancing its procurement policies to ensure equal treatment of domestic and foreign products, aiming to eliminate discrimination and promote a unified national market by 2026 [2][3]. Group 1: Government Procurement Policy - Starting January 1, 2026, the government procurement policy will officially implement equal treatment for all types of suppliers, prohibiting discrimination based on ownership, organization form, equity structure, investor nationality, or other unreasonable conditions [3]. - The Ministry of Finance has encouraged foreign entities to report any violations of these procurement regulations, emphasizing transparency and fairness in the procurement process [2]. Group 2: Economic Development and Market Competition - The Chinese government is focusing on building a unified national market and addressing "involution" in competition as key tasks for high-quality economic development [3][4]. - Recent data indicates a positive trend in economic indicators, with the core Consumer Price Index (CPI) rising by 1.2% year-on-year in December 2025, and manufacturing profits increasing by 5.0% from the previous year [4][5]. - The government acknowledges existing issues of weak demand and insufficient supply, emphasizing the need to expand domestic demand and optimize supply to achieve a dynamic balance in the economy [5]. Group 3: Regulatory Measures and Market Order - The government plans to implement targeted measures to enhance the effectiveness of the unified market, including refining market operation rules and addressing barriers in procurement and investment [7][8]. - A comprehensive approach will be taken to regulate local government economic promotion behaviors, particularly concerning illegal subsidies and incentives in attracting investments [8]. - The establishment of a clear framework for encouraging and prohibiting local government actions in investment will be prioritized to ensure compliance and fair competition [8].

Economic Growth - In 2025, China's GDP reached 1401879 billion yuan, growing by 5% year-on-year, maintaining the same growth rate as the previous year [1] - The GDP growth in the fourth quarter was 4.5%, a slowdown of 0.3 percentage points from the third quarter, but showed a quarter-on-quarter increase of 1.2% [1] - The urban unemployment rate averaged 5.2%, indicating overall employment stability, while foreign exchange reserves exceeded 3.3 trillion USD [1] Income Growth - In 2025, the per capita disposable income of residents reached 43377 yuan, with a nominal growth of 5% and an actual growth of 5% after adjusting for price factors [2] - Urban residents' per capita disposable income was 56502 yuan, growing by 4.3% nominally and 4.2% in real terms, while rural residents saw a 5.8% nominal increase and a 6% real increase [2] - Seven provinces had per capita disposable incomes exceeding 50,000 yuan, with Shanghai leading at 91987 yuan [2] Domestic Demand Strategy - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) announced plans to develop a domestic demand expansion strategy for 2026-2030, focusing on consumption-driven economic growth [3] - The NDRC is also working on plans to enhance residents' income and optimize consumption supply [3] - The Ministry of Finance introduced six policies aimed at stimulating private investment and promoting consumer spending [3] Market Regulation - Multiple ministries have recently addressed "anti-involution" measures, focusing on regulating capacity in key industries and standardizing fiscal subsidies [4][5] - The NDRC emphasized the need to enhance market vitality and transition from price competition to value competition [5] - The Ministry of Finance is committed to correcting any irregular subsidy behaviors by local governments [5] Pre-prepared Food Standards - The State Council's Food Safety Office is drafting national standards for pre-prepared foods, aiming to protect consumer rights and promote high-quality industry development [7] - The upcoming standards will provide a unified basis for production, circulation, and regulation, helping the industry move towards compliance [7] TikTok's US Operations - TikTok announced the establishment of a joint venture for data security in the US, ensuring data protection and algorithm security for over 200 million American users [11] - The joint venture will be managed by a seven-member board, with ByteDance retaining a 19.9% stake as the largest single shareholder [11]

Core Insights - The 2026 investment strategy conference hosted by Harvest Fund focused on macro policy trends, equity market layout, ETF evolution, and structural opportunities in the context of "反内卷" (anti-involution) and "扩内需" (expanding domestic demand) [1][35] Market Outlook - The Chinese economy demonstrated significant policy resilience and development stability in 2025, with proactive fiscal and stable monetary policies creating a relatively loose macro environment [3][37] - The equity market in 2026 is expected to experience a rationally optimistic outlook, with potential significant shifts in market style and structure, influenced by domestic demand sectors [3][39] Investment Strategies - Investors are advised to focus on two main opportunities: the "AI+" downstream applications and upstream raw materials, as well as low-position domestic demand sectors benefiting from profit recovery and domestic demand expansion measures [5][39] - The ETF market is anticipated to see explosive growth in 2025, with a focus on dynamic asset allocation to navigate market volatility effectively [5][40] Fixed Income Insights - The fixed income sector remains a cornerstone for asset allocation, with approximately 50 trillion yuan in term deposits maturing in 2026, creating substantial demand for stable fixed income products [5][43] - The current economic environment is characterized by a "K-shaped recovery," necessitating adjustments in bond market analysis frameworks [5][43] Multi-Strategy Approach - A multi-strategy investment approach is essential to adapt to the accelerating market rotation, with a focus on "胜率思维" (probability thinking) to enhance certainty in investment outcomes [5][45] - Harvest Fund has developed a diverse product range to meet varying investor needs, emphasizing both standardized and personalized investment products [5][47] Technology and AI Investment - The "科技AI" (technology and AI) sector is highlighted as a key growth area, with ongoing advancements expected to reshape industry ecosystems [5][49] - Investment in AI is still in its early stages, with significant long-term potential despite current volatility [5][53] Policy-Driven Opportunities - The dual policies of "反内卷" and "扩内需" are seen as central to understanding current and future macroeconomic and industrial changes in China [5][59] - Investors are encouraged to identify structural investment opportunities that benefit from improved competitive environments and potential profit recovery [5][61]

Core Viewpoint - The investment strategy summit held by Harvest Fund on January 23, 2026, highlighted opportunities arising from the "anti-involution" and "expanding domestic demand" policies, focusing on asset allocation and investment timing [1][6]. Group 1: Investment Opportunities - The "anti-involution" trend presents observable opportunities, primarily driven by production cuts and price increases, benefiting industries such as steel, photovoltaics, aquaculture, and chemicals over the past six months to a year [3][8]. - Three deep investment clues emerge from the "anti-involution" trend: 1. Transition from non-market to market competition, where companies will shift from price competition to technological competition, increasing R&D investments to enhance product quality [4][9]. 2. The national income doubling plan may favor companies that focus on value-added growth, particularly in labor-intensive sectors like food delivery and internet platforms, despite short-term pressures from labor cost inflation [4][9]. 3. The "anti-involution" will suppress ineffective investments, leading the market to prioritize company quality, cash flow generation, and dividend levels, which are suitable for long-term investment strategies [4][9]. Group 2: Market Dynamics and Strategies - In a market with ample liquidity, the correlation between January and February's rising stocks and the annual main trends is often inconsistent, making it challenging to derive fundamental logic from short-term price increases [5][9]. - Some stocks that have already risen may represent "pre-selection" for new main directions for the year, indicating sustainable new logic [5][9]. - Investors who missed the initial market surge should focus on tracking new rising stocks and identifying quality candidates for future accumulation, as exemplified by the chemical sector, which has not shown significant fundamental improvement yet [5][9].

专题：投资好时节 嘉实基金2026投资策略峰会 1月23日，嘉实基金2026年度投资策略峰会在上海举行。在主题为《"反内卷与扩内需"政策驱动下的行 业机遇》的圆桌对话中，嘉实基金大周期研究总监肖觅就周期投资的策略及投资机遇发表了深刻见解。 肖觅指出，"反内卷"的核心目标是"提质"，其必要性在于应对部分行业因过度竞争导致的长期发展隐 患。他以新能源汽车行业为例，指出国内车企虽在产品力和价格上具备全球竞争力，但面临盈利薄弱的 问题。这导致某些企业在后续科技投入和战略探索上，长远发展的"后继乏力"。"反内卷"正是要通过治 理低质低价的无序竞争，为优质企业创造更合理的盈利环境，保障科技创新的可持续性。 肖觅进一步分析，政策的具体落实需考察不同行业的"动力"与"抓手"。当前部分企业可能存在面临"动 力"与"抓手"不匹配的现状。比如，部分企业"动力强而抓手弱"，进行产业提质升级的动力非常充足， 但缺乏有效的切入点。。 肖觅强调，"反内卷"的定位已从侧重科技创新领域，提升至"建设全国统一大市场"的整体框架下，成为 重点工作之首。这预示着政策执行力度将强化，对行业的影响将更为深入。 从周期投资的角度，肖觅认为关键在于寻找那些 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Thread: ☆☆☆ [1] - Hot Rolled: ☆☆☆ [1] - Iron Ore: ☆☆☆ [1] - Coke: ★☆☆ [1] - Coking Coal: ★☆☆ [1] - Ferrosilicon: ☆☆☆ [1] - Silicomanganese: Not provided Core Views - The overall sentiment of commodities has warmed up, and the steel market has continued a slight rebound, but the sustainability remains to be observed [1] - Iron ore is expected to fluctuate in the short term due to its loose fundamentals [2] - Coke and coking coal prices are likely to fluctuate in a range, with market expectations for "anti - involution" policies [3][5] - For silicomanganese and ferrosilicon, it is recommended to short on rebounds [6][7] Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - The steel market continued to rebound today. Thread demand decreased slightly, production increased, and inventory accumulated again. Hot - rolled demand and production both declined slightly, and inventory continued to fall. Steel mill profits are poor, and the downstream's ability to absorb is insufficient. The recovery of blast furnaces has slowed down, and molten iron production has stabilized. Domestic demand is still weak, while steel exports remain high [1] Iron Ore - The global shipping volume of iron ore has seasonally declined, but it is still at a high level year - on - year. Domestic port inventory has increased significantly this week and continues to accumulate. The terminal demand is at a low level, and the molten iron production is difficult to increase significantly in the short term. Steel mills' imported ore inventory is relatively low, and there is still an expectation of winter storage replenishment demand [2] Coke - Coke prices continued to rebound during the day. The first round of price increases was shelved, coking profits are average, and daily production decreased slightly. Coke inventory increased slightly, and traders' purchasing willingness is average. The supply of carbon elements is abundant, and downstream molten iron production remains at a low level. The market has expectations for "anti - involution" policies, and the price is likely to fluctuate in a range [3] Coking Coal - Coking coal prices rebounded slightly during the day. Yesterday, the customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal was 1046 trucks. The production of coking coal mines increased slightly, and the spot auction volume remained at a high level. Terminal inventory increased significantly. The overall supply of carbon elements is abundant, and downstream molten iron production remains at a low level. The market has expectations for "anti - involution" policies, and the price is likely to fluctuate in a range [5] Silicomanganese - Silicomanganese prices rebounded slightly during the day. Driven by the rebound of the futures market, the spot price of manganese ore increased. There are structural problems in the port inventory of manganese ore. The demand for semi - carbonate ore may increase. The demand for silicomanganese has a seasonal decline, and its production and inventory both decreased slightly. It is recommended to short on rebounds [6] Ferrosilicon - Ferrosilicon prices rebounded slightly during the day. Affected by relevant policy documents, the price is relatively strong. There are expectations of a decline in power costs and semi - coke prices. The molten iron production has rebounded to a high - level range, and the export demand has declined. The production of magnesium metal has increased, and the overall demand remains resilient. The supply of ferrosilicon has decreased significantly, and the inventory has decreased slightly. It is recommended to short on rebounds [7]

这次航空板块的行情，仍旧和政策上的积极情绪密不可分。 近日，消费领域政策利好齐发，而在此前落幕的2026年全国民航工作会议上，提出最重要的一条就是，深入整治"内卷式"竞 争，持续提升航班运行品质，不断提升旅客出行体验。 近一段时间，航空机场板块热度再次提升。 早在2025年的10月，《国庆价格暴涨！行情启动？》，航空板块行情已然启动。 同花顺数据显示，国庆之后，航空运输板块近三个月已然整体上涨超20%。而近一年内，板块整体涨幅已经接近40%。 近日，伴随着政策接连出台，消费板块热度提升，航空相关板块又站在了市场风口之上。 而这次，航空板块，或许已经站在了起飞的前夜。 01 民航局的2026年重点任务清单还首次将"反内卷"细化为四项举措—— 航线测算全成本并建立"成本红线"；建立"运价监测预警联动机制"；将恶性低价竞争纳入重大失信行为；协调OTA平台，禁止 发布低于政府指导价的机票产品。 可以说是从航司到OTA平台到行业整体的全方位，整治了此前困扰行业已久的"内卷式"低价战。 在这一政策的提出背后，民航业持续"以价换量"的政策，正在愈发侵蚀行业利润。 2025年，我国民航完成旅客运输7.7亿人次，同比增长5.5 ...

证券日报网讯1月23日，天合光能在互动平台回答投资者提问时表示，目前公司所处光伏行业仍在底部 区间运行，行业上市公司亏损情况较为普遍，但是随着行业自律和反内卷措施的深入推动，并公司自身 储能业务、分布式光伏业务的发展情况，公司有信心先于行业实现业绩复苏。 ...