Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the coexistence of advocating frugality and encouraging consumption as a symbiotic relationship aimed at better meeting the people's aspirations for a better life [1][2]. Group 1: Advocacy for Frugality - Frugality has been a traditional virtue in Chinese culture, and the government promotes it as a means to save resources for social welfare [1]. - The government encourages frugality to ensure that saved funds can be redirected towards improving people's livelihoods [1]. Group 2: Encouragement of Consumption - Consumption is highlighted as a crucial engine for China's economic growth, contributing 68.8% to GDP growth in the first half of the year, with final consumption expenditure accounting for 52% [2]. - The government has implemented measures such as consumption vouchers and trade-in programs to stimulate consumer spending and address barriers to consumption [2]. Group 3: Interrelation of Frugality and Consumption - The article argues that advocating frugality and encouraging consumption can lead to better quality goods and services at lower costs for the public, while also contributing to sustainable development [3]. - It stresses the importance of a balanced approach to spending, promoting reasonable consumption while discouraging wasteful and blind spending [3].

Group 1: Retail and Investment Trends - The total retail sales of consumer goods in China showed a significant increase, reaching 440823.2 billion yuan in 2021, with a year-on-year growth of 12.5%, the highest in nearly a decade [10] - In 2024, the retail sales are projected to reach 487894.8 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 3.5% compared to the previous year [10] - Fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) has been steadily increasing, with a forecast of 514374 billion yuan in 2024, marking a 3.2% increase from the previous year [10] Group 2: Income Growth - The per capita disposable income of residents is expected to reach 41314 yuan in 2024, an increase of 9125 yuan or 28.35% from 2020 [11] - In the first half of 2025, the per capita disposable income is projected to be 21840 yuan, showing a nominal growth of 5.3% year-on-year [11] Group 3: Policy and Economic Strategy - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes the importance of expanding domestic demand and creating more consumption scenarios as a key task for China's economic work [8] - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) is committed to implementing strategies to strengthen domestic circulation and stimulate internal demand [9] Group 4: Emerging Consumption Trends - The ice and snow industry is rapidly developing, with its market size expected to reach 10053 billion yuan in 2025, marking a significant growth from 8900 billion yuan in 2023 [14] - The silver economy is also emerging, with projections indicating that its market size could reach 12.3 trillion yuan by 2028, becoming a vital growth engine for the Chinese economy [14]

Macroeconomic Research - The report highlights the increasing significance of domestic circulation in the economy, with external pressures impacting the overall economic performance [2][3] - In June, external demand was boosted by the easing of tariffs, but domestic demand remained weak, particularly in the real estate market [3] - Financial data showed an unexpected increase in social financing and M1 growth, indicating a positive trend in the financial sector [3][5] Fixed Income Research - The report indicates a return to a fluctuating pattern in the bond market, with a notable increase in the issuance of government bonds [4][6] - Financial data for June showed improvements in both total volume and structure, with private sector financing demand showing signs of recovery [5] - The bond market is expected to remain stable, with liquidity being a key variable influencing market performance [6] Industry Research - The report discusses the launch of the 11th batch of centralized drug procurement, with rules being further optimized to enhance the procurement process [7][9] - Notable company announcements include the acceptance of applications for new drug approvals and acquisitions within the pharmaceutical sector [8] - The pharmaceutical and biotechnology sector saw a significant increase in stock performance, with the industry index rising by 4.52% during the reporting period [8][9]

消费品以旧换新是当前扩大内需的重要发力点。国家发展改革委政策研究室副主任、新闻发言人李超表 示，按照既定工作安排，将下达今年第三批消费品以旧换新资金，并分领域制定落实到每月、每周 的"国补"资金使用计划，保障消费品以旧换新政策全年有序实施。 会议指出，要聚焦突出问题，提高政策精准度和可操作性，加强部门间协同配合，汇聚政策落实的合 力，加快破解制约国内大循环的堵点卡点。有关部门要进一步优化政策设计，认真听取各方面意见建 议，积极帮助地方和企业解决困难、促进发展，齐心协力推动经济持续向好。 "做强国内大循环是一项系统工程，需要各方面政策同向发力、形成合力。落实好会议部署，要进一步 加强部门政策协同联动，完善政策落地长效机制，并要密切跟踪形势变化，做好政策储备，确保需要时 能够及时推出、尽快见效。"张林山说。(记者魏玉坤) 16日召开的国务院常务会议，研究做强国内大循环重点政策举措落实工作，并作出一系列针对性部署。 最新数据显示，今年上半年内需对GDP增长的贡献率为68.8%，其中最终消费支出贡献率为52%，是经 济增长的主动力。会议指出，做强国内大循环是推动经济行稳致远的战略之举。 "'战略之举'，凸显做强国内大 ...

新华财经北京7月21日电过去的一周（7月14日-18日），受税期、买断式逆回购等公开市场操作影响，资金整体偏松，主要期限资金利率 有所下行。截至7月18日收盘，国债现券期货涨跌互现，10年期国债活跃券收益率报1.6625%，30年期国债活跃券收益率收报1.8730%， 10年期国开债活跃券收益率报1.7420%。 机构认为，债市当前利空有限，股债双牛格局之下债市较难出现大的趋势性行情，但往后看可能存在做多契机。预计央行降准降息或者 重启购买国债，实质性货币宽松落地前后，债市将迎来上涨；权益市场在牛市格局下出现超预期回踩或者阶段性调整，对债市压制情绪 减弱，可能促使债市上涨突破。当前货币大幅宽松的必要性不高，央行重启购买国债的可能性大于降准降息，考虑到权益市场阶段性回 踩或将出现，三季度尤其是7月下旬至8月可能是债市破局的较好契机。 市场回顾 具体来看，周一早盘资金面均衡偏紧，债市先弱后强维持震荡，现券期货尾盘多数走弱，10年期国债和10年期国开债活跃券收益率收报 1.660%和1.746%，与上周五基本持平；周二，资金面先紧后松，主要期限资金利率有所上行，债市维持偏强震荡格局，尾盘10年期国债 和10年期国开 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View The report comprehensively tracks national news, economic data, and market trends in multiple areas including national policies, Henan's economy, bond markets, stock markets, and the brokerage sector. It presents the latest policies, economic indicators, and market performance, aiming to provide a basis for investment analysis and decision - making. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 National News and Data Tracking - **National Policies**: From July 14 - 20, 2025, multiple important policies were issued, such as the "Green Finance Support Project Directory (2025 Edition)" by the central financial regulatory authorities, aiming to promote green financial development [10][11]. - **Economic Data**: In June 2025, new social financing was 4.20 trillion yuan, an increase of 900.8 billion yuan year - on - year, with a growth rate of 8.9%. In the first half of 2025, national GDP showed stable growth in various aspects such as agriculture, industry, and consumption [20][28]. 3.2 Henan Economic and Policy Tracking - **Policies**: Henan issued the "Opinions on Building a Pro - clean Government - business Relationship and Creating a First - class Business Environment" and held a work promotion meeting on integrating into and serving the national unified market [38][39]. - **Economic Situation**: In the first half of 2025, Henan's economy showed strong demand - side pull, emerging kinetic energy growth, and improved development quality and efficiency. For example, high - tech manufacturing investment increased by 12.1%, and online retail sales increased by 16.3% [46]. 3.3 Bond Market Operation Tracking - **Interest Rates**: This week, short - term government bond yields declined, while long - term yields increased. Credit bond yields also showed different degrees of decline [55][62]. - **Liquidity**: The net investment in the open market and MLF this week was 126.11 billion yuan, and the money market interest rate increased [59]. - **Supply Structure**: As of July 18, 2025, the cumulative issuance of national bonds and local government bonds increased compared to the same period in 2024, while the issuance of short - term financing and corporate bonds decreased [60]. 3.4 Stock Market Operation Tracking - **Global Markets**: Among global markets, the Russian index led with a 4.82% increase, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average lagged with a - 0.07% change [73][74]. - **Domestic Markets**: In the domestic A - share market, the ChiNext Index led with a 3.17% increase, and the top three industries with the highest increases were communication (7.56%), pharmaceutical biology (4%), and automobiles (3.28%) [79][82]. 3.5 Brokerage Sector Weekly Market Tracking - **Brokerage Index**: The securities II index of the CITIC secondary industry had a - 0.95% change this week, with an excess return of - 2.04% compared to the CSI 300 index. The top three brokerage firms with the highest increases were Huaxi Securities (3.27%), Guoxin Securities (3.26%), and China Merchants Securities (2.46%) [106]. - **Valuation**: As of the end of this week, the average P/B of the brokerage sector was 1.46 times, with 28 companies having a PB lower than the industry average, an increase of 1 compared to the previous period [110].

证券研究报告 策略周报：扩内需与反内卷同步推进 证券分析师 魏 伟 投资咨询资格编号：S1060513060001 陈 骁 投资咨询资格编号：S1060516070001 蒋炯楠 投资咨询资格编号：S1060524120002 请务必阅读正文后免责条款 2025年7月20日 1 ※ 核心观点|扩内需与反内卷同步推进 2 • 上周A股延续上行，新兴科技表现居前。海外方面，美国最新零售和就业数据表现较好，虽然关税风险仍有反复，但市场更多交易基本面韧 性，美元指数连续第二周反弹至98.5，美股标普500和纳指上涨0.6%、1.5%。国内方面，Q2经济数据韧性，产业政策积极信号持续释放， A股市场热度延续，上证指数和创业板指上涨0.69%、3.17%；结构上，景气向好的新兴科技板块表现居前，通信行业领涨（7.56%），其 次是医药生物、汽车、机械设备、国防军工、电子、计算机（涨幅在2%-4%），光模块、创新药、稀土概念指数领涨（涨幅在8%-10%）。 • 海外方面，美国6月CPI符合预期、居民消费韧性；特朗普关税风险仍有反复，但市场反应钝化。基本面方面，美国6月CPI同比上涨2.7%， 前值2.4%，核心CPI同比上 ...

Group 1 - The performance of A-shares is expected to benefit from overseas expansion, which is a strong indicator of exceeding expectations in earnings [1] - The market is transitioning to seek new scenarios as the mid-year earnings forecast season comes to an end [2] - A-shares are anticipated to show a slight upward trend in July, supported by stable export conditions and potential breakthroughs in technology sectors [3] Group 2 - The domestic economic recovery path is becoming clearer, with factors such as anti-involution policies and the relative advantage of A-shares compared to other markets [2] - The equity market is likely to maintain a strong oscillating trend due to positive signals from domestic policies and improving earnings in certain sectors [4] - Key investment areas include technology growth sectors, traditional cyclical industries benefiting from policy changes, and financial sectors with high dividend yields [4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes strengthening the domestic circulation as a strategic move for stable economic growth, requiring the removal of both physical barriers and institutional inertia [1][3] - The State Council's meeting on July 16 highlighted the importance of domestic demand as the main driver of China's economic development, with final consumption contributing an average of 56.2% to economic growth over the past four years, an increase of 8.6 percentage points compared to the "13th Five-Year Plan" period [1] - In the first half of this year, domestic demand contributed 68.8% to GDP growth, with final consumption expenditure accounting for 52%, underscoring its role as the main economic driver [1] Group 2 - The policy of replacing old consumer goods is seen as a crucial measure to expand effective demand and facilitate economic circulation, particularly in the automotive and home appliance sectors [2] - On the supply side, increasing investment in new productive forces and emerging service industries can create new demand, promoting a positive interaction between consumption and industrial upgrades [2] - To break through existing barriers, enhancing policy precision and operability, as well as inter-departmental collaboration, is essential to address issues like local protectionism and data silos [2] Group 3 - The need for a high-quality domestic market is emphasized, which requires addressing deep-seated contradictions and issues that restrict domestic circulation [2][3] - Comprehensive reforms and improvements in institutional mechanisms and policy systems are necessary to enhance independent innovation capabilities, providing sufficient momentum for domestic circulation [2]

Core Insights - The Chinese economy has demonstrated strong resilience during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, with significant contributions from consumption, foreign trade, and foreign investment [2][4][5] - The total retail sales of consumer goods are expected to exceed 50 trillion yuan this year, reflecting a robust domestic market [5] - China's foreign trade has maintained its position as the world's largest, with a total import and export value of 21.79 trillion yuan in the first half of this year, marking a 2.9% year-on-year increase [5][6] Domestic Consumption - Domestic consumption has become a key driver of economic growth, contributing approximately 60% to GDP growth on average during the "14th Five-Year Plan" [5] - Retail sales increased from 39.1 trillion yuan in 2020 to an expected 48.3 trillion yuan in 2024, with an annual growth rate of 5.5% [5] - Service consumption has also seen rapid growth, with an average annual increase of 9.6% from 2020 to 2024 [5] Foreign Trade - China's position as a major trading power has been reinforced, with high-quality development outcomes evident in the growth of exports and imports [6][7] - The export of high-tech products is projected to account for 18.2% of total goods trade in 2024, indicating an increase in the "quality" of exports [6] - The service trade scale has surpassed 1 trillion USD, ranking second globally, with a significant contribution to the economy [6] Foreign Investment - Actual foreign investment during the "14th Five-Year Plan" has exceeded the target of 700 billion USD, reaching 708.73 billion USD by mid-2023 [8] - The number of newly established foreign enterprises has increased by 25,000 compared to the previous five-year period, highlighting the growing attractiveness of the Chinese market [8] Future Outlook - The upcoming "15th Five-Year Plan" is expected to focus on long-term policies for economic and capital market openness, aiming to lay a solid foundation for future economic reforms [3][10] - The Ministry of Commerce plans to enhance trade quality, expand imports, and strengthen international cooperation to foster a resilient trade environment [10]