Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's monetary policy is still considered restrictive, and there is a strong advocacy for significant interest rate cuts by Stephen Milan, a member of the Federal Reserve Board [1] Group 1 - Stephen Milan believes that the current policy level is significantly above the neutral interest rate [1] - Milan expresses a more optimistic outlook on inflation compared to some other committee members, questioning the rationale for maintaining such a restrictive policy [1]

Fischer强调，若要重启负利率，需同时满足多重条件：经济增长前景显著恶化、欧洲央行进一步降息以 扩大瑞郎与欧元区利差，以及瑞郎持续面临升值压力。目前，这些因素尚未同时显现。 Pantheon Macroeconomics经济学家Melanie Debono也认为，央行"可能会忽略"10月的低通胀数据。她援 引瑞士央行行长Martin Schlegel近期表态称，央行仍预期未来几个月通胀将回升。 不过，Debono指出，受租金通胀下行及2026年初电价下调影响，通胀可能在2026年2月短暂降 至-0.3%。即便如此，鉴于瑞士央行已明确表示，仅当中期（即2027年底或2028年初）通胀预期持续低 于零时，才会考虑将利率降至负值，因此该行"很可能在12月按兵不动，并在2026年全年维持利率不 变"。 外部风险亦不容忽视。美国前总统特朗普此前宣布对大多数瑞士商品加征39%的关税，为对主要贸易伙 伴中税率最高之一。尽管瑞士核心出口产品——药品目前尚未被征税，但特朗普已威胁可能对其加征高 达100%的关税。 新华财经北京11月3日电（崔凯）瑞士联邦统计局11月3日公布数据显示，10月消费者价格指数（CPI） 同比上涨 ...

来源：滚动播报 美联储理事斯米兰表示，在评估货币政策时，过分强调股市和企业信贷市场的强势是不妥的。他认为， 目前的货币政策仍过于紧缩，并增加了经济下行的风险。米兰在接受采访时表示："金融市场受很多因 素驱动，并不仅仅是货币政策。"他用此解释为何上周在对一季度降息进行投票时，他反对降息25BP， 而倾向于降息50BP。他指出，在利率敏感的行业如住房市场表现不佳、部分私人信贷市场出现压力的 情况下，股价上涨、企业信贷利差收窄等因素"并不一定能告诉你货币政策的立场如何"。 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The market is in a volatile and differentiated state due to the end of the tariff issue and the weakening of the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation by Powell's hawkish remarks. Different assets show distinct performances [5][6][9]. - Gold prices have fallen from their highs recently but still have long - term upward support. Investors are advised to approach gold investment rationally [6]. - The gold tax new policy aims to regulate the market, guide resources, and serve the real economy by adjusting the behavior and motivation of market participants [73]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro Analysis - Global major stock markets are mixed, with the Nikkei leading the rise, the US stocks rising, and the A - shares under pressure. The BDI index has a small decline, the VIX index rises significantly, the US bond yield and the US dollar index increase together, and most non - US currencies weaken. Commodities mostly fall, with precious metals falling from highs, and copper and oil prices weak [5][9]. - In the domestic market, the bond market rises across the board with short - term bonds weaker than long - term ones, the stock index is mixed, and most commodity sectors fall. The Wind commodity index has a weekly decline of 1.96%, with 3 out of 10 commodity sector indexes rising and 7 falling. Coal, coking, steel, and minerals perform well, while precious metals and non - ferrous metals drag down the overall decline of commodities. Energy, grains, and non - metallic building materials sectors are almost flat, and the agricultural and sideline products and chemical sectors have relatively large declines [5][14]. - The Fed cut interest rates by 25bp in October as expected, but Powell's hawkish remarks weakened the December interest - rate cut expectation. The 10 - month domestic PMI data was lower than expected, which put pressure on the A - shares and commodities [6]. - Gold prices have fallen from historical highs to around $4000 per ounce. It is due to short - term technical adjustments and the weakening of risk - aversion sentiment, as well as the weakening of the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation and the rebound of the US dollar index. However, there is still long - term upward support for gold prices [6]. Big - Class Assets - Stock markets: Global major stock markets are mixed, with the Nikkei leading the rise, the US stocks rising, and the A - shares under pressure [5][9]. - Commodities: Commodities mostly fall, with precious metals falling from highs, and copper and oil prices weak [5][9]. - Others: The BDI index has a small decline, the VIX index rises significantly, the US bond yield and the US dollar index increase together, and most non - US currencies weaken [5][9]. Plate Express - Domestic bond market rises across the board with short - term bonds weaker than long - term ones, the stock index is mixed, and most commodity sectors fall. The Wind commodity index has a weekly decline of 1.96%, with 3 out of 10 commodity sector indexes rising and 7 falling [14]. - Coal, coking, steel, and minerals perform well, while precious metals and non - ferrous metals drag down the overall decline of commodities. Energy, grains, and non - metallic building materials sectors are almost flat, and the agricultural and sideline products and chemical sectors have relatively large declines [14]. Capital Flow - The overall capital in the commodity futures market slightly flows out last week. The agricultural and sideline products, non - ferrous metals, and non - metallic building materials sectors have obvious capital inflows, while the precious metals, energy, and oil and fat sectors have obvious capital outflows [16]. Variety Performance - Among domestic major commodity futures, the top - rising varieties are apples, iron ore, and coking coal, while the top - falling varieties are butadiene rubber, methanol, and palm [20]. Fluctuation Characteristics - The volatility of the international CRB commodity index slightly decreases, the volatility of the domestic Wind commodity index significantly increases, and the South China commodity index significantly reduces volatility. Most commodity futures sectors see a decline in volatility, with the non - metallic building materials, chemical, and coal, coking, steel, and minerals sectors significantly reducing volatility, and the precious metals sector having the most obvious upward volatility [24]. Data Tracking - International commodities: Most international commodities rise, with the BDI falling, the CRB rising slightly, soybeans and corn rising, copper rising, oil falling, gold falling, and silver rising, and the gold - silver ratio falling [26]. - Domestic data: The asphalt production rate seasonally declines, the real - estate sales are at a weak bottom, the freight rates show a differentiated rebound, and the short - term capital interest rate fluctuates at a low level [40]. Macro Logic - Stock index: The domestic four major stock indexes fall from highs and are mixed. The value stocks are weaker, and the growth - style stock indexes are stronger. The stock - index valuation is under pressure, and the risk premium ERP rebounds from a low level [30]. - Commodity price index: The commodity price index fluctuates at a high level, and the inflation expectation rebounds from a low level [32]. - US bond: The US bond yield significantly increases, with short - term bonds weaker than long - term ones. The term structure shows a bearish steepening, the term spread is stable, the real interest rate rebounds, and the gold price fluctuates and rebounds [47]. - "Fund Seesaw" Effect and Commodity Spread: Last week, the stock market rises first and then falls, the commodity market fluctuates, and the commodity - stock return difference rebounds from a bottom. The domestic - priced commodities are relatively resistant to decline, and the international - priced commodities are weaker, with the domestic - international commodity futures return difference hovering around the zero axis [39]. - US economic indicators: The US high - frequency "recession indicators" are differentiated, the weekly economic index weakens, and the 10Y - 3M US bond spread hovers around the zero axis [58]. Fed Interest - Rate Cut Expectation - The Fed cut interest rates by 25bp to 3.75 - 4% in October as expected. But due to the Fed officials' hawkish remarks, the expectation probability of a 25bp interest - rate cut to 3.5 - 3.75% in December drops to 59.3% from last week's 98.1%, and the probability of keeping the interest rate unchanged at 3.75 - 4% increases significantly [62]. World Gold Association Report - In the third quarter of 2025, the global gold demand reaches a record high of 1,313 tons, with a total demand value of $146 billion. The growth is mainly driven by investment demand, which surges to 537 tons, a 47% year - on - year increase, accounting for 55% of the total net demand in the third quarter [66]. - The demand for gold bars and coins increases by 17% year - on - year to 316 tons, with India and China making prominent contributions. The global gold jewelry demand is under pressure, with a 19% year - on - year decline. The global central banks accelerate gold purchases, with a net purchase of 220 tons in the third quarter, a 28% increase from the second quarter and a 10% increase year - on - year [67]. - In China, the retail gold investment and consumption demand in the third quarter is 152 tons, a 7% year - on - year decline and a 38% quarter - on - quarter decline. By value, it reaches 120.4 billion yuan, a 29% year - on - year increase. The sales of gold bars and coins increase by 19% year - on - year to 74 tons, a 36% quarter - on - quarter decline. The gold ETF in the Chinese market has an outflow of 3.8 billion yuan, and the total position decreases by 5.8 tons to 194 tons. The gold jewelry demand is 84 tons, a 21% quarter - on - quarter increase but an 18% year - on - year decline. By value, the gold jewelry consumption in the third quarter is 66.5 billion yuan, with significant increases both quarter - on - quarter and year - on - year [68]. Gold Tax New Policy - On November 1st, the Ministry of Finance and the State Tax Administration jointly issued the "Announcement on Tax Policies Related to Gold" (No. 11 in 2025). The policy aims to regulate the market, guide resources, and serve the real economy through precise tax policy adjustments [73]. - The policy suppresses speculation by implementing differentiated VAT management according to the use of gold after delivery. It encourages rational investment by increasing the tax cost of enterprise - client investment in gold. - It supports the real economy by allowing non - investment uses of gold (such as in jewelry production and industrial use) to have a complete and smooth VAT deduction chain. - It regulates the market by binding tax incentives to the Shanghai Gold Exchange and the Shanghai Futures Exchange, and preventing tax loopholes by strictly controlling the use declaration and change mechanism [74]. Fed Meeting - On October 30th, the Fed cut interest rates by 25bp to 3.75 - 4% as expected and decided to end the balance - sheet reduction (QT) on December 1st. There are internal differences within the Fed, with some advocating a larger - scale interest - rate cut and others opposing further cuts. The policy statement is adjusted to weaken concerns about employment decline and inflation. Powell emphasizes the uncertainty of the December interest - rate cut decision and the impact of the government shutdown on data [84]. - After Powell's hawkish remarks, the probability of a December interest - rate cut drops from 95% to 65%. The US stocks, US bonds, gold, and digital currencies fall sharply during the session, the US dollar rises, and finally, the Nasdaq rises, the Dow and the S&P 500 fall, the US bond yield rises significantly, and the gold price falls by 2.5% from the high point [88]. China - US Summit in Busan - On October 30th, the Chinese and US presidents held a meeting in Busan. The two sides reached consensus on several aspects in the economic and trade consultations, including the US canceling the 10% "fentanyl tariff" on Chinese goods, continuing to suspend the 24% reciprocal tariff for one year, and the two sides extending some tariff exclusion measures. The US will also suspend the implementation of some export - control rules, 301 investigation measures on China's maritime, logistics, and ship - building industries for one year, and the two sides will also cooperate on fentanyl anti - drug, expand agricultural product trade, and handle relevant enterprise cases [93][95]. October PMI Data - In October, the manufacturing PMI is 49.0%, a 0.8 - percentage - point decline from the previous month, indicating a decline in the manufacturing prosperity level. The non - manufacturing business activity index is 50.1%, a 0.1 - percentage - point increase from the previous month, entering the expansion range. The comprehensive PMI output index is 50.0%, a 0.6 - percentage - point decline from the previous month, indicating that the overall production and operation activities of Chinese enterprises are stable [98]. - By enterprise scale, the PMI of large, medium, and small enterprises is 49.9%, 48.7%, and 47.1% respectively, all lower than the critical point and showing a decline from the previous month [98]. - Among the 5 sub - indexes of the manufacturing PMI, the supplier delivery time index is at the critical point, while the production index, new order index, raw - material inventory index, and employment index are all below the critical point, indicating a slowdown in manufacturing production, a decline in market demand, a decrease in raw - material inventory, and a slight decline in employment [99]. This Week's Focus - Monday (November 3rd): Eurozone October manufacturing PMI final value, US October S&P Global manufacturing PMI final value, US October ISM manufacturing PMI. - Tuesday (November 4th): San Francisco Fed President Daly gives a speech, the Reserve Bank of Australia announces the interest - rate decision, European Central Bank President Lagarde gives a speech, US September JOLTs job openings. - Wednesday (November 5th): Eurozone October services PMI final value, the Swedish central bank announces the interest - rate decision, Eurozone September PPI monthly rate, US October ADP employment, US October S&P Global services PMI final value, US October ISM non - manufacturing PMI. - Thursday (November 6th): Eurozone September retail sales monthly rate, the Bank of England announces the interest - rate decision, Tesla holds its annual general meeting. - Friday (November 7th): New York Fed President Williams gives a speech, Cleveland Fed President Harmaek gives a speech at the New York Economic Club, Philadelphia Fed President Paulson gives a speech, St. Louis Fed President Musalem has a fireside chat on monetary policy, New York Fed President Williams gives a speech at the European Central Bank money - market meeting, US November University of Michigan consumer confidence index preliminary value. - Saturday (November 8th): US October New York Fed 1 - year inflation expectation.

Core Insights - The article discusses the historical fluctuations in sugar prices since 2000, highlighting five cycles of price increases and decreases, with an average duration of five years for each cycle. The overall trend shows a strong correlation between domestic and international sugar prices, with variations in volatility and market transitions [1]. Group 1: Sugar Price Trends - Sugar prices have shown a strong positive correlation with global demand, driven by population growth and increased applications of sugar, with an average annual consumption growth rate of 2.07% from 2000 to 2011, which decreased to 0.55% post-2012 [1]. - The global sugar supply-demand gap is a significant variable affecting sugar prices, with a negative correlation of -0.16 between raw sugar prices and the global supply-demand gap, becoming more pronounced after 2011 [1]. - The correlation coefficient between domestic sugar prices in Guangxi and international raw sugar prices is approximately -0.35 [1]. Group 2: Weather and Economic Factors - Weather factors, particularly the impact of La Niña and El Niño phenomena, play a crucial role in sugar production and price fluctuations. La Niña is expected to persist until early 2026, potentially causing drought in Brazil, which could affect sugarcane production in the 2026 season [2]. - The article notes that significant economic crises, such as the 2008 global financial crisis and the 2020 COVID-19 pandemic, have shown consistent impacts on sugar prices, with sugar being a staple commodity less affected by localized macroeconomic crises [2]. - The last strong El Niño occurred in 2023, which led to reduced sugar production and influenced the previous price surge. The next significant price increase is anticipated around 2027, aligning with macroeconomic cycles [3].

Focus on Gold Tax Policy - The Ministry of Finance and the State Administration of Taxation announced a tax policy regarding gold transactions, exempting value-added tax (VAT) for members or clients trading standard gold through the Shanghai Gold Exchange and Shanghai Futures Exchange [9] - For investment purposes, VAT will be levied but immediately refunded, while non-investment gold will be exempt from VAT, potentially increasing costs for non-investment enterprises by approximately 60 yuan per gram [10] APEC Meeting Insights - President Xi Jinping emphasized China's commitment to an open world economy during the APEC meeting, proposing five key recommendations to maintain multilateral trade, stabilize supply chains, and promote inclusive development [10] - The APEC mechanism is recognized for its significant influence in promoting economic cooperation in the Asia-Pacific region, with China being viewed as a stabilizing force amid global uncertainties [11] US-China Trade Developments - The US announced the cancellation of a 10% tariff on Chinese goods related to fentanyl, while maintaining a 24% tariff on other products for another year, indicating a potential easing of trade tensions [11][13] - Recent discussions between US and Chinese leaders focused on enhancing economic cooperation and addressing mutual concerns, including trade and export controls [13] Regulatory Changes in Public Fund Sector - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) released guidelines for public fund performance benchmarks, aiming to enhance stability and clarity in investment behaviors [12][14] - These guidelines are seen as a critical step in standardizing public fund regulations and reinforcing investment management discipline [14] Resumption of National Debt Trading - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) announced the resumption of national debt trading operations to improve monetary policy tools and enhance the financial function of government bonds [15] - This move is expected to stabilize the bond market and improve liquidity management, following a period of suspension due to market imbalances [15] Hainan Duty-Free Policy Update - A new duty-free shopping policy in Hainan, effective November 1, 2025, expands the range of eligible products and allows for increased purchase limits for travelers, aiming to enhance consumer experience and stimulate local economic growth [16] - The policy changes are projected to significantly boost Hainan's duty-free market, which has seen a substantial increase in sales and consumer participation in recent years [16] Manufacturing Sector Performance - The manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for October recorded at 49.0, indicating a decline from September, reflecting weakened production and demand in the sector [18][19] - The decrease in manufacturing activity is attributed to external uncertainties and seasonal factors, with the production index falling into contraction territory [19]

Group 1: Monetary Policy and Economic Impact - Asymmetric monetary policy has led to higher U.S. Treasury yields being maintained for longer periods, adversely affecting the real economy[2] - The Federal Reserve's hesitation to implement aggressive rate cuts is due to persistent inflation concerns, contrasting with previous rate hikes[2] - The urgency for rate cuts is particularly strong from the White House, as the government’s fiscal power relies on manageable debt levels[2] Group 2: Trump's Influence on the Federal Reserve - Trump's strategy to increase his influence over the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) involves a three-step approach to restructure the Federal Reserve's power dynamics[3] - The first step is to secure a "shadow chairman" to align monetary policy with his expectations, marking the beginning of his intervention[3] - Trump aims to gain a majority on the Board of Governors, currently holding 3 out of 7 seats, needing just 1 more to achieve a majority[4] Group 3: Regional Federal Reserve Presidents - The regional Federal Reserve presidents have gained significant influence in FOMC decisions, with a historical trend showing they cast more dissenting votes than Board members[6] - Since 1936, 72% of dissenting votes from regional presidents have favored tightening policies, compared to only 30% from Board members[6] - Trump's control over the Board of Governors is crucial for influencing the appointment of regional Federal Reserve presidents, as he needs at least 3 supportive votes from them[5] Group 4: Key Upcoming Events - The court ruling on the Cook case in January 2026 will be pivotal for Trump's ability to control the Board majority[5] - The end of terms for all 12 regional Federal Reserve presidents in February 2026 presents an opportunity for Trump to reshape the FOMC by appointing more dovish members[7]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Views of the Report - Alumina's fundamentals may enter a stage of slightly reduced supply and relatively stable demand, with a suggestion of light - position short - long trading at low prices [2] - The fundamentals of Shanghai Aluminum might be in a stage of slightly increasing supply and boosted demand, and it's recommended to conduct light - position oscillating trading [2] - The fundamentals of cast aluminum alloy could be in a situation of slowed supply and increasing demand, and light - position oscillating trading is advised [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai Aluminum contract is 21,600 yuan/ton, up 300 yuan; the closing price of the main alumina futures contract is 2,789 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan [2] - The LME electrolytic aluminum three - month quotation is 2,888 dollars/ton, up 18 dollars; the LME aluminum inventory is 558,050 tons, up 98,525 tons [2] - The closing price of the main cast aluminum alloy contract is 21,065 yuan/ton, up 260 yuan; the registered warehouse receipts of cast aluminum alloy on the SHFE are 51,117 tons, up 273 tons [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The average price of Shanghai Non - ferrous Network A00 aluminum is 21,440 yuan/ton, up 160 yuan; the spot price of alumina in Shanghai Non - ferrous is 2,790 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan [2] - The average price of ADC12 aluminum alloy ingots nationwide is 21,400 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market AOO aluminum price is 21,300 yuan/ton, up 170 yuan [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The alumina output in October is 799.90 million tons, up 7.42%; the national alumina start - up rate is 85.98%, up 3.05% [2] - The demand for alumina (electrolytic aluminum part) in October is 704.31 million tons, down 21.49%; the supply - demand balance of alumina is 46.85 million tons, up 18.12% [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The import volume of primary aluminum in October is 246,797.10 tons, up 31,034.96 tons; the export volume of primary aluminum is 28,969.92 tons, up 3,365.58 tons [2] - The total electrolytic aluminum production capacity in October is 4,523.20 million tons, unchanged; the electrolytic aluminum start - up rate is 98.27%, up 0.16% [2] 3.5 Downstream and Application - The output of aluminum products in October is 590 million tons, up 35.18 tons; the export volume of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products is 52 million tons, down 1 million tons [2] - The output of recycled aluminum alloy ingots in October is 65.65 million tons, up 2.06 tons; the export volume of aluminum alloy is 2.35 million tons, down 0.56 tons [2] 3.6 Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai Aluminum is 10.65%, up 0.95%; the 40 - day historical volatility of Shanghai Aluminum is 8.84%, up 0.65% [2] - The implied volatility of the at - the - money IV of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract is 12.75%, up 0.0049; the call - put ratio of Shanghai Aluminum options is 1.42, up 0.1219 [2] 3.7 Industry News - The central bank governor, Pan Gongsheng, aims to guide financial institutions to improve the transmission efficiency of monetary policy, especially interest rate policy, and study and reserve policy tools [2] - In October, China's manufacturing PMI is 49%, down 0.8 percentage points; the non - manufacturing PMI is 50.1%, up 0.1 percentage point; the composite PMI output index is 50%, down 0.6 percentage points [2] - Multiple Fed officials oppose interest rate cuts, expressing concerns about economic growth, inflation, and policy restrictions [2] - The CPC Central Committee proposes to expand two - way investment cooperation space, and the Ministry of Commerce will introduce more detailed measures [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - The terminal demand for hot-rolled coils has strong resilience, apparent demand has increased and is higher than the same period last year. However, the support from macro positives has weakened, and at the same time, furnace materials have weakened, causing hot-rolled coils to operate weakly. Technically, the 1-hour MACD indicator of the HC2601 contract shows that DIFF and DEA are moving downward. Operationally, it's recommended to be bearish with oscillations, paying attention to rhythm and risk control [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the HC main contract is 3,295 yuan/ton, down 13 yuan; the position volume is 1,422,835 lots, down 47,384 lots. The net position of the top 20 in the HC contract is -78,193 lots, down 10,918 lots. The HC1 - 5 contract spread is -9 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan. The HC warehouse receipt at the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 128,537 tons, unchanged. The HC2601 - RB2601 contract spread is 216 yuan/ton, up 14 yuan [2] Spot Market - The price of 4.75 hot-rolled coils in Hangzhou is 3,370 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; in Guangzhou is 3,320 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; in Wuhan is 3,390 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; in Tianjin is 3,240 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan. The basis of the HC main contract is 75 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan. The price difference between hot-rolled coils and rebar in Hangzhou is 100 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] Upstream Situation - The price of 61.5% PB iron ore fines at Qingdao Port is 800 yuan/wet ton, unchanged; the price of Hebei quasi-primary metallurgical coke is 1,590 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of 6 - 8mm scrap steel in Tangshan is 2,230 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Hebei Q235 billet is 2,960 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan. The inventory of iron ore at 45 ports is 145.3924 million tons, up 1.1859 million tons; the inventory of coke at sample coking plants is 374,400 tons, up 700 tons; the inventory of coke at sample steel mills is 6.2888 million tons, down 43,900 tons; the inventory of Hebei billets is 1.1957 million tons, down 103,900 tons [2] Industry Situation - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills is 81.73%, down 3 percentage points; the blast furnace capacity utilization rate is 88.59%, down 1.33 percentage points. The hot-rolled coil output of sample steel mills is 3.2356 million tons, up 11,000 tons; the capacity utilization rate is 82.65%, up 0.28 percentage points. The hot-rolled coil inventory at sample steel mills is 776,600 tons, up 3,100 tons; the social inventory of hot-rolled coils in 33 cities is 3.2893 million tons, down 86,400 tons. The domestic crude steel output is 73.49 million tons, down 3.88 million tons; the net export volume of steel is 9.92 million tons, up 910,000 tons [2] Downstream Situation - The monthly production of automobiles is 3.2758 million vehicles, up 460,400 vehicles; the monthly sales are 3.2264 million vehicles, up 369,800 vehicles. The monthly production of air conditioners is 18.0948 million units, up 1.276 million units; the monthly production of household refrigerators is 10.1276 million units, up 674,400 units; the monthly production of household washing machines is 11.7849 million units, up 1.653 million units [2] Industry News - Fed Governor Waller said that despite the risk of a government shutdown, the Fed will still obtain a large amount of data and should advance monetary policy based on data guidance. He further pointed out that all data indicate that the correct policy path currently is to continue to advance interest rate cuts. The Passenger Car Association disclosed that the preliminary estimate of new energy vehicle retail sales in October is about 1.32 million vehicles, and the penetration rate is expected to reach about 60%, possibly setting a new historical high [2]

值得重点关注的是，美国ADP公司当天将发布10月ADP就业人数变动，即市场熟知的"小非农"数据。在 非农数据暂未明确发布的背景下，此次ADP数据的重要性进一步凸显；同时，ADP机构将从此次开始发 布周度数据（每周二公布ADP周预估数据），这一调整将为市场提供更灵敏的美国劳动力市场观测手 段。 周四（11月6日）贸易帐与工业数据指路，英国央行决议周四数据聚焦"全球经济景气"与"欧洲货币政策 预期"。早间，澳大利亚公布9月贸易帐：作为典型的商品出口属性国家，澳大利亚贸易帐通常是全球经 济景气的先行指标。随后，欧元区公布零售销售同比与环比数据，德国同步公布年化工业产出数据：这 两项数据均为欧洲央行制定货币政策的重要参考指标。周五（11月7日）贸易数据收官，五位FOMC票 委定调美联储政策周五以核心贸易数据与美联储政策指引收尾。周五的重头戏集中在晚间：五位美国 FOMC票委将集体发表讲话，其对通胀走势、劳动力市场及12月乃至今后利率决议的表态，将为市场提 供关键政策指引，直接影响美元指数、黄金的短期趋势。 周一（11月03日）黄金亚盘金价低开震荡，市场反弹小幅微涨，日内金价行情波动较小，关注下方支撑 位多单布局方案， ...