Report Investment Rating - There is no information provided about the industry investment rating in the report. Core Viewpoints - In July 2025, the precious metals market showed a divergent pattern under multiple factors. Gold maintained a volatile trend, while silver rose sharply and then fell back, but still had significant monthly gains. Looking ahead, precious metals may continue to trade in a high - level volatile pattern in the short term, with the core drivers being policy expectation differentials and trade risk premiums [3][6]. - The Fed's July FOMC meeting is likely to keep interest rates unchanged. However, if it signals a rate cut in September, it may trigger a weaker US dollar. The implementation of global tariffs on August 1 and the EU's €93 billion counter - measure plan (effective August 7) may cause supply - chain shocks, and the safe - haven demand still has the potential to surge [3][73]. Summary by Directory 1. Futures Market Review - In July 2025, affected by factors such as escalating trade frictions, deepening policy games, and frequent geopolitical risks, the precious metals market showed a divergent pattern. Gold was volatile, and silver rose first and then fell. By July 25, New York gold rose 0.71% monthly, Shanghai gold rose 0.82%, New York silver rose 5.49% monthly, and Shanghai silver rose 4.34% [3][6]. 2. Macroeconomic Analysis (1) Uncertainty of Tariff Implementation and Safe - Haven Logic for Precious Metals - The US postponed the deadline for "reciprocal tariffs" to August 1. Although the direct impact of the new round of tariffs is weaker than before, most trade agreements are still pending, which increases the uncertainty of the global trade system. The precious metals market shows a complex reaction, with local trade risk mitigation weakening gold's safe - haven appeal, while unresolved trade frictions still support safe - haven sentiment [16][18]. (2) Rate - Cut Expectations and Political Risk Premiums as New Drivers for Precious Metals - The Fed is facing internal divisions over the rate - cut path and external challenges to its policy independence from the Trump administration. The market's pricing logic for precious metals is shifting. Rate - cut expectations may limit the upside of precious metals, while political intervention has increased policy uncertainty and risk premiums, providing support for precious metals [19][20]. (3) Inflation: US CPI Rebounded in June - The US CPI data in June showed an overall moderate increase with the impact of tariffs emerging. As enterprises deplete their inventories, the impact of tariffs on inflation may intensify in the coming months. The market's expectation of the Fed's policy shift has weakened significantly, with the probability of the first rate cut postponed to September at 59.9% [21][25]. (4) US June Non - Farm Payrolls Exceeded Expectations - The better - than - expected non - farm payrolls data in June reduced the probability of a rate cut in July and also shook the expectation of a rate cut in September. In the short term, it suppressed precious metals prices, but in the long term, the support factors for precious metals remained, and prices may maintain a volatile and slightly upward pattern [26][30]. (5) US Treasury Real Yields Volatile, Dollar Index Declined - In July 2025, the 10 - year US Treasury real yields fluctuated violently, causing increased volatility in precious metals prices. The Trump administration's tariff policies and the Fed's independence crisis weakened the US dollar's credit foundation, and the falling dollar index provided support for precious metals [40][42]. 3. Supply - Demand Analysis of Precious Metals (1) Gold Market in Q1 2025 - In Q1 2025, the global gold market saw both supply and demand increase, with prices soaring. Investment demand was the core driver, with global gold ETFs rebounding strongly. The market showed structural changes, with gold jewelry demand falling to its lowest level after the pandemic, while the investment focus shifted from the over - the - counter market to gold ETFs [44][47]. (2) Silver Market - In 2025, the silver market remained in a tight supply - demand balance. The growth of photovoltaic and electronic industrial demand was the core driver. The demand for silver in the photovoltaic industry is expected to increase further, but there are policy and technological uncertainties. Silver is expected to experience a supply shortage again in 2024, and the shortage may widen [51][52]. 4. Position, Inventory, and Seasonal Analysis (1) ETF Positions - In June 2025, the demand for global gold ETFs turned positive, driving strong performance in the first half of the year. North America, Europe, Asia, and other regions all saw inflows. By the end of June, the total AUM of global gold ETFs increased by 41% to $383 billion, and the total holdings increased by 397 tons to 3616 tons [56][59]. (2) CFTC Positions - As of the week ending July 15, 2025, the non - commercial net long positions in gold futures on the CFTC increased, indicating a rebound in the market's bullish sentiment towards gold. The non - commercial net long positions in silver futures decreased, showing a decline in the market's bullish sentiment towards silver [62]. (3) Inventory Analysis - As of July 23, 2025, COMEX gold inventory increased by about 1.2% compared to the end of last month, COMEX silver inventory decreased by about 0.3%, SHFE gold inventory increased by about 58.23%, and SHFE silver inventory decreased by about 8.6% [67]. 5. Outlook and Operational Suggestions - Precious metals may continue to trade in a high - level volatile pattern in the short term. The COMEX gold may fluctuate between $3200 - $3450 per ounce, corresponding to Shanghai gold between 760 - 820 yuan per gram. The COMEX silver may trade between $36.5 - $40 per ounce, corresponding to Shanghai silver between 8800 - 9600 yuan per kilogram. In August, attention should be paid to factors such as the Fed's policy minutes, US inflation data, the impact of EU - US trade confrontation, and geopolitical black swan events, and positions should be adjusted flexibly based on key levels [3][73].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The price of raw materials in the production areas is prone to rise and difficult to fall, with strong cost support. The downstream demand is average, and the acceptance of high prices is limited, resulting in light overall trading. The conflict between Thailand and Cambodia has a potential impact on the supply of natural rubber. Coupled with the continuous fermentation of anti - involution, the market sentiment was bullish last week. However, considering the impact of regulatory control measures on leading varieties and the overall market sentiment, it is expected that rubber may follow the overall market atmosphere and may have a narrow - range correction [76]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Industry News - In the first half of 2025, Thailand's total exports of natural rubber and mixed rubber increased by 13.2% year - on - year to 2.257 million tons, and exports to China increased by 35% to 1.423 million tons [5]. - In the first half of 2025, EU passenger car sales decreased by 1.9% to 5.58 million vehicles, with a 7.3% year - on - year decline in June to 1.01 million vehicles. The market share of pure electric vehicles rose to 15.6%, and hybrid electric vehicles accounted for 34.8%, while the total market share of gasoline and diesel vehicles dropped to 37.8% [6]. - Thailand and Cambodia had a border conflict on July 24, with both sides accusing the other of opening fire first [7]. - In June 2025, global light - vehicle sales increased by 2.1% year - on - year to 7.73 million vehicles. The annualized sales volume after seasonal adjustment rose to 93 million vehicles/year. Trade frictions affected major markets such as the US and Western Europe, while the Chinese market maintained strong sales [8]. Market Trends - This week, both domestic and foreign markets continued to rise. On July 25, 2025, the closing price of RU2509 was 15,585 yuan/ton, up 5.23% this week; the closing price of NR2509 was 13,320 yuan/ton, up 5.09%; the closing price of Singapore TSR20:2509 was 178.90 cents/kg, up 5.30%; and the closing price of Tokyo RSS3:2509 was 332.70 yen/kg, up 2.56% [10][11]. Basis and Monthly Spread - As of July 25, 2025, the basis of whole - milk rubber to RU was - 35 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month change of - 250.00% and a year - on - year increase of 88.33%. The 09 - 01 monthly spread was - 765 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 3.16% and a year - on - year increase of 35.17% [14]. Other Spreads - Cross - variety/cross - market spreads such as RU - NR, RU - BR, NR - SGX TSR20, and RU - JPX RSS3 increased. On July 25, 2025, the RU09 - NR09 spread was 2,265 yuan/ton, up 6.09% month - on - month and down 2.58% year - on - year [22][23]. - Non - standard basis spreads: The spreads of Thai mixed rubber to RU, Malaysian mixed rubber to RU, 3L rubber to RU, and African No. 10 rubber to RU changed. For example, the Thai mixed rubber to RU spread was - 485 yuan/ton on July 25, 2025, with a large month - on - month change [24][26]. - Light - dark color spreads: The spread between whole - milk rubber and Thai mixed rubber widened, while the spread between 3L rubber and Thai mixed rubber narrowed [31]. Substitute Prices - Due to policy factors and the border conflict, the price of synthetic rubber rose, but RU rose more, widening the spread between synthetic rubber and RU. On July 25, 2025, the price of China's mainstream butadiene rubber was 12,200 yuan/ton, and the price of styrene - butadiene rubber was 12,450 yuan/ton [34]. Capital Movements - The long - short position ratio of RU was relatively low, and the funds settled were neutral year - on - year. The long - short position ratio of NR rose rapidly, and the funds settled increased rapidly. On July 25, 2025, the long - short position ratio of RU was 6.98, and that of NR was 16.72 [36][37]. Supply - Weather in Thai production areas: The temperature in southern Thailand rose, and rainfall continued to ease. In domestic production areas, recent rainfall in Hainan and Yunnan was high year - on - year, and rainfall in Hainan increased significantly month - on - month [40][41]. - Raw material prices: The raw material procurement prices continued to rise, strengthening the upstream cost support. On July 25, 2025, the price of Thai cup rubber was 50 baht/kg, and the price of Thai glue was 55.3 baht/kg [44][45]. - Raw material spreads: The spread between Thai glue and cup rubber decreased, while the spread between Hainan glue for concentrated latex plants and that for whole - milk rubber plants increased [53][54]. - Upstream processing profits: This week, the rubber processing profits recovered. On July 25, 2025, the production profit of Thai standard rubber was 108 yuan/ton [56][57]. - Rubber imports: In June 2025, China's imports of natural rubber (including mixed and composite rubber) increased by 2.21% month - on - month and 33.95% year - on - year. The imports of Thai mixed rubber, Vietnamese mixed rubber, and Vietnamese standard rubber increased significantly month - on - month, while the imports of Thai standard rubber decreased significantly [60][61]. Demand - Tire capacity utilization and inventory: This week, the overall tire capacity utilization increased slightly. The inventory of some sample tire enterprises increased slightly. On July 25, 2025, the capacity utilization of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 70.06%, and that of full - steel tire sample enterprises was 62.23% [64]. - Tire exports and heavy - truck sales: In June 2025, the exports of full - steel and semi - steel tires decreased year - on - year and month - on - month. Passenger car sales maintained high growth, and heavy - truck sales improved significantly year - on - year and month - on - month [67][68]. Inventory - Spot inventory: As of July 18, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 1.2891 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.47%. The inventory of dark - colored rubber was 795,600 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.23%, and the inventory of light - colored rubber was 493,500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.85% [69]. - Futures inventory: On July 25, 2025, the futures inventory of natural rubber on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 182,000 tons, and the futures - spot inventory was 210,800 tons [72].

Group 1 - South Korea has unexpectedly shifted its stance in handling China-US relations, imposing anti-dumping duties on China while showing intentions to engage in Taiwan Strait issues [1][3] - The cancellation of the scheduled US-Korea "2+2" economic talks did not deter the South Korean economic delegation from pursuing tariff negotiations, indicating a strong commitment to international trade cooperation [1][3] - South Korea's Ministry of Trade decided to impose temporary anti-dumping duties on hot-rolled steel plates and single-mode optical fibers from China, aiming to protect domestic industries during formal investigations [3][4] Group 2 - The economic relationship between China and South Korea is closely intertwined, and the imposition of anti-dumping duties by South Korea could disrupt normal trade and cooperation between the two countries [4][6] - Analysts suggest that while South Korea may increase military spending, the likelihood of direct involvement in Taiwan Strait affairs remains low, although vigilance is necessary due to potential trade-offs with the US [6] - China has expressed strong opposition to any actions that sacrifice its interests for US concessions, indicating readiness to take decisive measures to protect its rights in the international trade environment [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The price of natural rubber raw materials in Thailand remained strong this week. The social inventory of natural rubber in China decreased, with both dark and light rubber inventories declining. The capacity utilization rate of semi - steel and all - steel tire sample enterprises in China increased slightly. The downstream demand was average, and the overall transaction was light. Affected by the potential impact of the border conflict between Thailand and Cambodia on supply and the "anti - involution" policy, the market sentiment was bullish last week. However, considering the regulatory measures, rubber may follow the market and experience a narrow - range correction. [77] - The recommended investment strategies are: 1) Unilateral: oscillatory correction; 2) Inter - period: NR reverse spread; 3) Inter - variety: not provided. [77] 3. Summary According to the Directory Industry News - In the first half of 2025, Thailand's total exports of natural rubber and mixed rubber increased by 13.2% year - on - year, with exports to China increasing by 35%. Among them, the exports of mixed rubber increased significantly, while the exports of some types of natural rubber showed different trends. [5] - In the first half of 2025, EU passenger car sales decreased by 1.9% to 5.58 million vehicles. The market share of pure electric vehicles increased, while the market share of gasoline and diesel vehicles decreased. [6] - On July 24, 2025, there was a border conflict between Thailand and Cambodia. Both sides accused each other of opening fire first. [7] - In June 2025, global light - vehicle sales increased by 2.1% year - on - year to 7.73 million vehicles. The Chinese market performed strongly, while the US and Western European markets faced challenges. [8] Market Trends - This week, both domestic and foreign markets continued to rise. On July 25, 2025, the closing price of RU2509.SHF was 15,585 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 5.23%; the closing price of NR2509.SHF was 13,320 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 5.09%; the closing price of Singapore TSR20:2509 was 178.90 cents/kg, with a weekly increase of 5.30%; the closing price of Tokyo RSS3:2509 was 332.70 yen/kg, with a weekly increase of 2.56%. [11][12] Fundamental Data Supply - Weather: In the Thai southern region, the temperature rose and rainfall continued to ease. In Hainan and Yunnan of China, the recent rainfall was at a relatively high level compared to the same period, and the rainfall in Hainan increased significantly month - on - month. [40][41] - Raw material prices: The raw material procurement prices continued to rise, strengthening the upstream cost support. On July 25, 2025, the price of Thai cup rubber was 50.00 baht/kg, the price of Thai glue was 55.30 baht/kg, etc. [44][45] - Raw material price differences: The price difference between Thai glue and cup rubber decreased, while the price difference between Hainan glue entering the concentrated latex factory and the whole - milk factory increased. [53][54] - Upstream processing profits: This week, the rubber processing profits rebounded. On July 25, 2025, the production profit of Thai standard rubber was 108.00 yuan/ton, and the production profit of Thai smoked sheet was 1,891.00 yuan/ton. [57][58] - Rubber imports: In June 2025, China's imports of natural rubber (including mixed and composite rubber) increased by 2.21% month - on - month and 33.95% year - on - year. The imports of Thai mixed rubber, Vietnamese mixed rubber, and Vietnamese standard rubber increased significantly month - on - month, while the imports of Thai standard rubber decreased significantly month - on - month. [61][62] Demand - Tire capacity utilization and inventory: This week, the capacity utilization rate of tire enterprises increased slightly, and the inventory increased slightly. On July 25, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tires was 62.23%, and the capacity utilization rate of semi - steel tires was 70.06%. [65] - Tire exports and heavy - truck sales: In June 2025, the exports of all - steel and semi - steel tires decreased both month - on - month and year - on - year. The sales volume of passenger cars maintained high growth, and the sales volume of heavy - trucks improved significantly both month - on - month and year - on - year. [67][68] Inventory - Spot inventory: This week, the natural rubber inventory in China decreased, with both dark and light rubber inventories decreasing. As of July 18, 2025, the dark rubber inventory was 79.56 tons, and the light rubber inventory was 49.35 tons. [70][71] - Futures inventory: On July 25, 2025, the futures inventory of natural rubber on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 18.20 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 2.48%. [73][74]

Core Points - The upcoming trade talks between the US and China in Sweden are the third round of negotiations since May, which could significantly impact the relationship between the two largest economies in the world [1][3] Group 1: Trade Negotiations - Chinese officials will meet with US representatives from July 27 to 30 in Sweden to discuss trade [3] - The main goal of the talks is to extend the current "tariff truce" and potentially expand the discussion topics [3] - There are indications that both sides may plan to extend the existing truce period by three months, leading to a total of six months of temporary tariff exemptions [3] Group 2: Economic Signals - The trade talks are seen as a positive signal for both economies, suggesting a potential reduction in trade friction [3] - The US Treasury Deputy Secretary highlighted that the discussions will cover critical issues such as China's export controls on rare earth materials and overall tariff levels [3] Group 3: Bilateral Relations - Since the May trade talks, US-China relations have shown signs of improvement, with a shift in the US stance under Trump, who has expressed a desire for better relations with China [5] - The US recently lifted a ban on Nvidia's export of H20 chips to China, indicating a willingness to engage in cooperative measures [5] - China's rare earth exports to the US surged by 660% in June, reflecting mutual concessions that could enhance economic collaboration [5] Group 4: Technology Competition - Despite improving relations, competition in the high-tech sector remains tense, with Trump announcing a new AI development strategy aimed at maintaining US leadership in technology [6][10] - The strategy includes around 90 specific recommendations to promote AI software and hardware exports while addressing local regulations perceived as restrictive [6][10] - The US aims to collaborate closely with allies to advance AI technology and maintain an edge over China, while China advocates for a cooperative approach [10]

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Group 1 - Volkswagen reported a significant decline in Q2 profits and lowered its full-year guidance due to rising costs from U.S. tariffs imposed by President Trump, impacting the profitability of its Audi and Porsche brands [1] - Q2 revenue for Volkswagen was €80.8 billion, a 3% year-over-year decrease, while operating profit fell to €3.83 billion, down 29% year-over-year [1] - The company expects a return on sales of 4% to 5% by 2025, down from a previous forecast of 5.5% to 6.5%, primarily due to increased costs of €1.3 billion (approximately $1.53 billion) in the first half of the year from U.S. tariffs [1] Group 2 - Volkswagen is facing pressure to cut costs and improve products amid crises in three key markets, with U.S. tariffs eroding sales and profits of its import-reliant Audi and Porsche brands [1] - The company anticipates flat revenue for the year, down from a previous forecast of a 5% increase, and has also lowered its free cash flow expectations [1] - Other automakers are also facing challenges, with Stellantis appointing a new CEO and Renault searching for a formal CEO, while Volkswagen looks to collaborate with Rivian Automotive and Xpeng Motors to enhance its product lineup [2] Group 3 - Volkswagen's truck transportation division, Traton SE, lowered its performance expectations due to trade tensions, weak economic growth in Europe, and declining orders in Brazil, with adjusted operating performance down 29% in Q2 [2] - Despite challenges, Volkswagen's electric vehicle sales in Europe saw a 73% increase in Q2, driven by strong demand for models like the ID.5, Audi Q4 e-tron, and Skoda Enyaq [2]

Key Points Summary Group 1: Trade Developments - Recent trade negotiations led by the US have made significant progress, reducing tariffs on Japanese automobiles from 27.5% to 15% and approaching a deal with the EU to maintain a 15% tariff on US-bound goods, avoiding a potential increase to 30% [1] - The easing of trade tensions has decreased market concerns about global trade friction, resulting in a shift of funds from safe-haven assets like gold to equity markets, with the Nikkei 225 index surpassing 41,000 points and US stock indices reaching record highs [1] Group 2: Market Reactions - Gold prices initially surged past $3,400 per ounce due to a weaker dollar and declining US Treasury yields but later retreated following positive trade news, with New York gold futures reported at $3,363.3 per ounce, down 0.30% [4] - The International Monetary Fund has warned that US tariff policies could increase inflation and harm the global economy, indicating ongoing macroeconomic uncertainties [5] Group 3: Geopolitical Risks - The risk from the Russia-Ukraine conflict has decreased, with recent negotiations yielding some consensus on prisoner exchanges, although significant differences remain regarding ceasefire agreements [3] - Ongoing geopolitical tensions, including the Middle East situation and US tariff negotiations with other economies, continue to be critical areas of focus [9] Group 4: Monetary Policy Outlook - The upcoming Federal Reserve meeting is crucial, with expectations of a potential rate cut in September, which could influence gold prices depending on the signals released [6] - The long-term outlook for gold remains positive, supported by ongoing central bank purchases, including an increase in holdings by the People's Bank of China for eight consecutive months [10] Group 5: Investment Strategies - The current market environment suggests a "gold +" investment strategy to enhance portfolio resilience, with historical data indicating that gold has outperformed many mainstream assets over the past 20 years [10] - Short-term fluctuations in gold prices are anticipated, but medium to long-term prospects remain bullish due to supportive factors such as policy easing and geopolitical risks [10]

全球贸易格局正面临重大变化，美欧之间的贸易摩擦已进入关键时刻。美国威胁对欧盟商品征收高达30%的关税，而欧盟则准备启动强力反制措施。与此同 时，金融市场对贸易局势的变化反应激烈，黄金价格出现大幅波动。 欧盟准备强力反制措施 面对美国的强硬态度，欧盟正积极筹备一系列反制措施。欧盟委员会发言人奥洛夫·吉尔表示，如果谈判破裂，欧盟计划迅速对价值近1000亿欧元的美国商 品加征关税。这一反制方案将把此前针对210亿欧元美国商品的关税清单与涵盖720亿欧元美国商品的额外关税清单合并。 美欧贸易谈判陷入僵局 美国总统特朗普威胁自8月1日起对欧盟产品加征30%关税，这一税率被欧盟贸易执委谢夫乔维奇形容为"几乎阻断"跨大西洋贸易的毁灭性举措。欧盟原本期 待通过谈判达成协议，使大部分输美产品维持10%的关税水平，但美方在会谈中提出的方案税率远高于这一基准。 欧盟外交官透露，美国谈判代表之间缺乏一致性，每个人似乎都有自己的想法。美方还断然拒绝了欧盟提出的"冻结"安排，即在达成协议后不再加征新关 税。美国以"国家安全"为由，援引《232条款》对医药、半导体、木材等产品发起贸易调查，声称特朗普在国家安全问题上不能受到任何约束。 欧盟 ...