CHARTING A COURSE FOR SUSTAINABLE GROWTH Pacific Basin 1025 TRADING UPDATE 17 APRIL 2025 PERFORMANCE AND MARKET REVIEW Data as at 11 April 2025 ^ Spot market rates adjusted downwards to reflect the smaller average deadweight tonnage of our PB Core Handysize fleet compared to the Baltic Exchange benchmark 38,200 dwt vessel * Excludes 5% commission and tonnage adjusted for Handysize Source: Baltic Exchange - 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000 16,000 18,000 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov ...

期货市场上看，5月19日收盘，白糖期货主力合约报5853.00元/吨，跌幅0.10%，最高触及5872.00元/ 吨，最低下探5836.00元/吨，日内成交量达151982手。 数据显示，5月19日南宁地区白砂糖现货价格报价6120.00元/吨，相较于期货主力价格（5853.00元/吨） 升水267.00元/吨。 （5月19日）今日全国白糖价格 一览表 | 规格 | | 品牌/产地 | 报价 | 报价类 | 交货地 | 交易商 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | 型 | | | | 食品级 | | 湖北七八 | 6500元/ | 市场价 | 湖北省/武汉 | 湖北七八九化工有限公司 | | | | 九 | 吨 | | 市 | VIP | | 工业级 | 含量30-35％ | 国产 | 3000元/ | 市场价 | 安徽省/池州 | 安徽芯旺化工科技有限公司 | | | | | 吨 | | 市 | VIP | | 工业级 | 含量30-35％ | 国产 | 3000元/ | 市场价 | 江苏省/苏州 | 苏州尚马化工科技有限公司 | | ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - There is no explicit overall industry investment rating provided in the report. However, investment suggestions are given for different sectors, including "long - position reduction", "short - selling opportunities", "interval trading", etc. [1] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The market shows complex trends due to various factors such as economic data, policy changes, and supply - demand relationships across different commodity sectors. The overall market sentiment is affected by factors like the US consumer confidence index, inflation expectations, and geopolitical events. [1] Group 3: Summaries by Related Catalogs Macro - Financial - For stock index futures, it is recommended to consider reducing long positions and be vigilant about further adjustment risks [1]. - The bond futures are supported by asset shortage and weak economy in the long - term, but the short - term rise is suppressed by the central bank's interest - rate risk reminder [1]. - Gold prices may enter a consolidation phase in the short - term, while the long - term upward logic remains unchanged. Silver prices may be more resilient than gold in the short - term due to potential tariff impacts [1]. Non - Ferrous Metals - Copper prices are expected to be weak in the short - term due to lower downstream demand and other factors [1]. - Aluminum prices will remain strong in the short - term supported by low inventory and alumina price rebounds. Alumina prices continue to rise due to supply disruptions [1]. - Zinc fundamentals are weak, and it is recommended to look for short - selling opportunities [1]. - Nickel prices will oscillate in the short - term and face long - term oversupply pressure. Short - term interval trading is suggested [1]. - Stainless steel futures will oscillate in the short - term with long - term supply pressure. Interval trading is recommended [1]. - Tin prices have strong fundamental support before the复产 of Wa State [1]. Chemicals - Silicon presents a situation of strong supply, weak demand, and low - valuation, with no improvement in demand and high inventory pressure [1]. - Lithium carbonate has no further supply contraction, increasing inventory, and downstream rigid - demand purchasing [1]. - For methanol, the short - term spot market will trade in a range, and the long - term market may turn from strong to weak and oscillate [1]. - PVC has weak fundamentals but is boosted by macro - factors, and its price will oscillate [1]. - LPG prices are expected to decline in the short - term due to tariff easing and demand off - season [1]. Black Metals - Rebar is in a window of switching from peak to off - season, with cost loosening and a supply - demand surplus, lacking upward momentum [1]. - Iron ore prices will oscillate, and manganese ore prices are expected to decline due to oversupply [1]. - Coke and coking coal are in a relatively oversupplied situation, and it is recommended to take advantage of price rebounds for hedging [1]. Agricultural Products - Brazilian sugar production in the 2025/26 season is expected to reach a record high, but it may be affected by crude oil prices [1]. - Grains are expected to oscillate, and a strategy of buying on dips is recommended considering the tight annual supply - demand situation [1]. - Soybean prices are expected to oscillate due to lack of speculation and market pressure [1]. - Cotton prices are expected to oscillate weakly as the domestic cotton - spinning industry enters the off - season [1]. - Pulp prices will oscillate due to lack of upward momentum after the tariff - related boost [1]. - Livestock prices will oscillate as the pig inventory recovers and the market is in a state of abundant supply expectation [1]. Energy - Crude oil and fuel oil prices are affected by the progress of the Iran nuclear deal and the end of the Sino - US trade negotiation drive [1]. - Asphalt prices will oscillate as cost drags, inventory returns to normal, and demand slowly recovers [1]. - Natural rubber prices are affected by rainfall, cost support, and the end of the trade negotiation drive [1].

智通财经5月19日电，今日，在深交所2025全球投资者大会上，未来资产环球投资（香港）首席投资官 Joohee An(安珠姬)表示，全球投资者对中国市场的信心正在增强。近期中国在人工智能与机器人领域的 技术突破表明在科技自主创新取得显著进展。这种技术突围提振民营企业和消费者的信心，且政府对民 企的持续支持，大量现金流充裕的民企有望扩大资本开支和人才招聘规模，从而形成正向循环。和以往 相比，目前中国能更好的应对和美国的贸易摩擦。尽管外部环境波动，人民币汇率仍体现了更高的稳定 性。因此，外资机构正逐步提升中国资产配置比例，预期企业盈利的下行风险有限，市场也将迎来价格 重估。（记者 周晓雅） 未来资产环球投资首席投资官：外资机构正逐步提升中国资产配置比例 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the shift in trade dynamics between the U.S. and China, highlighting how China's response to U.S. tariffs has led to a reevaluation of its reliance on American products and a diversification of its supply chains [1][20]. Trade Relations - Following the imposition of tariffs by the Trump administration, U.S. farmers, particularly soybean and corn producers, are facing significant challenges due to reduced demand from China, leading to surplus stocks and plummeting prices [6][12]. - The article emphasizes that the previous dependency on U.S. agricultural imports has changed, with China now seeking alternative sources for its agricultural needs, such as Brazil for soybeans, which offers competitive pricing [13][14]. Supply Chain Adjustments - The narrative illustrates how China has learned from past market fluctuations and is now focused on building a more resilient and autonomous supply chain, reducing reliance on any single country [8][18]. - Companies in China are increasingly investing in domestic production capabilities, as seen with Huawei's chip development and the rise of local medical equipment manufacturers [11][18]. Global Market Strategy - China's strategy involves expanding its global partnerships and investments, particularly in South America, to enhance its procurement efficiency and reduce transportation costs [16][18]. - The article points out that the global supply chain landscape is evolving, with a greater emphasis on security and self-sufficiency, especially in critical sectors like technology and agriculture [18][19]. U.S. Market Dependency - Despite the U.S. attempts to reduce reliance on Chinese manufacturing, the article argues that many American products still depend on Chinese components, indicating the complexity of decoupling from China [19][20]. - The article concludes that the current international landscape is no longer dominated by a single country, and any nation's development is intertwined with China's role in the global economy [20].

Group 1 - The current U.S.-China trade negotiations have resulted in a significant reduction of bilateral tariffs, exceeding many observers' expectations, but structural issues remain unresolved [2][3] - The historical context of the U.S.-Japan trade conflict in the 1980s provides insights into the current U.S.-China trade tensions, highlighting key differences such as Japan's alliance with the U.S. and China's greater strategic independence [3][4] - The "Plaza Accord" in 1985 was a pivotal moment in the U.S.-Japan trade war, leading to a sharp appreciation of the yen, which had long-term negative effects on Japan's export-driven economy [3][4] Group 2 - The U.S. is facing deep structural economic issues, including income distribution imbalances, which cannot be resolved merely through trade wars or elections [4][5] - The effectiveness of the U.S. tariff strategy is questioned, as it may not be sustainable due to inherent economic contradictions and the adaptability of other countries to U.S. trade policies [5][6] - Japan's current trade strategy involves a combination of delaying negotiations and maintaining a firm stance on key issues, while also seeking to show goodwill through increased investments in the U.S. [7] Group 3 - Cooperation among countries affected by U.S. tariffs, such as China, Japan, and South Korea, is limited but possible, as nations seek to navigate the comprehensive trade pressures from the U.S. [7] - Japan is actively working to expand the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) to include more economies, aiming to create a stable trade framework outside of U.S. influence [7]

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面对美国即将实施的46%高额关税，越南和美国周五（5月16日）在韩国济州岛举行了首次部长级直接 谈判。 根据越南贸易部5月17日发布的声明，这次会谈发生在第31届APEC贸易部长级会议之后，显示出双方 致力于促进稳定经贸关系的决心。 声明称，"美国贸易代表Greer同意越南目前的方法和提议。美国希望，通过双方共同努力，未来几天的 技术层面谈判将取得积极成果。" 数据显示，越南是美国第四大贸易顺差国，去年贸易顺差高达1235亿美元。 为减少这一巨额贸易顺差，越南最近采取了多项措施，包括降低大量输往美国商品的关税。 据华尔街见闻此前提及，为了避免对越南出口产品施加惩罚性高额关税，越南政府于5月7日表示，已指 示当地企业大量购买高价值的美国进口商品， 这是越南在应对贸易摩擦时采取的策略之一。 此外，贸易部还要求当地企业寻找替代出口市场。越南已与多个主要经济体签署了贸易协定，这为其提 供了多元化的选择。 据介绍，美国已将对越南实施46%关税的措施推迟至7月。 如果最终执行，这将严重扰乱越南的经济增长，因为越南经济严重依赖对美国这一最大出口市场，以及 在制造出口产品方面的大量外国投资。 风险提示及免责条款 市场有风险， ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent reduction in tariffs between China and the U.S. has led to a surge in export orders from Chinese companies, indicating a potential recovery in foreign trade amidst ongoing trade tensions [2][6]. Group 1: Trade Dynamics - The current U.S. tariff rate is the base rate plus 30%, which, while still high, is an improvement from previous levels, prompting U.S. clients to expedite shipping of previously delayed goods [2]. - Following the tariff reduction, the average booking volume for container shipments from China to the U.S. increased by 277%, from 5,709 to 21,530 standard containers within a week [6]. - China's foreign trade showed resilience, with a total import and export value of 14.14 trillion yuan in the first four months of the year, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 2.4%, supported by a 7.5% increase in exports [6][7]. Group 2: Economic Outlook - Short-term expectations indicate that Chinese companies will accelerate exports to mitigate uncertainties in future trade relations, with industrial production and foreign trade expected to maintain certain resilience in the second quarter [3]. - The first quarter of the year saw a 5.8% year-on-year increase in exports, with significant growth in exports to emerging markets and ASEAN countries [7]. - Future policy support is anticipated, including potential interest rate cuts and liquidity measures to bolster economic performance amid ongoing trade negotiations [9]. Group 3: Policy and Regulatory Environment - The Chinese government remains open to dialogue to resolve trade concerns, emphasizing the importance of communication in addressing economic issues [2]. - The U.S. continues to impose restrictions, such as export controls on Huawei products, which China views as unilateral and detrimental to global supply chains [8]. - The Chinese government is expected to take firm measures to protect its enterprises' rights and interests in response to U.S. trade policies [8].

| 19 E K # 5 | 日度策略参 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 趋势研判 | 行业板块 | 逻辑观点精粹及策略参考 | 品種 | 股指 | 震荡 | 持有的多头头寸考虑减仓,警惕进一步调整风险。 | 110 | | 资产荒和弱经济利好债期,但短期央行提示利率风险,压制上涨 | 容间。 | 宏观金融 | | | | | | | 短期金价或进入盘整;但中长期上涨逻辑尚未改变。明终 | 農汤 | 黄金 | 整体跟随黄金,但关税超预期结果将利好白银商品属性,因此短 | 農法 | 三 千尺 | | | | 期银价韧性或强于黄金。 | 近期市场情绪好转,铜价走高,但下游需求转弱,铜价存在回调 | 股 | | | | | | | 风险。 | 电解铝自身产业面无明显矛盾,在中美贸易谈判结果超预期情况 | 看头 | | | | | | | 下,铝价延续反弹走势。 | 铝土矿及氧化铝供应扰动有所提升,氧化铝供需格局有所好转 | 氧化铝 | | | | | | | 短期价格或进一步反弹。 | 步入淡季终端需求明显走弱,叠加 ...