参考历史经验和相关学术研究，央行独立性被认为是稳定通胀预期与维护市场信任的关键因素。在当前多重压力下，美联储仍按兵不动以维护其政策独立 性，稳定市场预期与制度信任。值得注意的是，近期美国关税政策在与日本、欧洲的磋商中显露出一定缓和迹象。若后续关税幅度有所下调，对物价的冲 击弱于预期，则美联储可能加快降息节奏，以更及时应对国内增长放缓与信心修复的双重需求，预计年内降息幅度总计50至75个基点。 周烨，工银国际宏观分析师 北京时间7月31日凌晨，美联储议息会议宣布保持基准利率不变在4.25%-4.50%，符合市场预期。今年以来美联储始终保持基准利率不变，主要出于关税政 策反复、通胀压力和经济不确定性多重因素的考量。 近期，特朗普政府对货币政策立场持续的言论干涉，也进一步引发了市场对于美联储独立性的关注。政府层面对于货币政策立场的干预反映出美国财政和 经济层面正面临多重压力。7月4日，特朗普总统正式签署"大而美"税收和支出法案，高债务背景下的财政扩张对经济刺激的有效性依赖货币政策的配合。 若美联储坚持通胀目标，财政扩张在高利率环境下或反而加重经济与债务负担，而货币政策的妥协则可能推升新一轮通胀。考虑到鲍威尔任期即将 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Japan (BOJ) decided to maintain the interest rate at 0.5%, aligning with market expectations, while raising its inflation and economic growth forecasts for the year [2][4]. Summary by Sections Interest Rate Decision - The BOJ has kept the interest rate unchanged for the fourth consecutive meeting, which was anticipated by the market [2][4]. - Following the decision, the USD/JPY exchange rate saw a short-term increase, reported at 148.90 [4]. Inflation Forecast - The BOJ has revised its core Consumer Price Index (CPI) forecasts upward, expecting potential consumer inflation to align with the 2% target in the latter half of the fiscal years 2025 to 2027. The new median core CPI forecasts for these years are 2.7%, 1.8%, and 2.0%, compared to previous forecasts of 2.2%, 1.7%, and 1.9% [4]. Economic Growth Outlook - The BOJ has also increased its economic growth forecast for the fiscal year 2025, adjusting the GDP growth expectation from 0.5% to 0.6% [4]. Economic Risks - The BOJ noted that the economic outlook carries downside risks, particularly due to uncertainties surrounding trade policies. Despite a mild recovery in the Japanese economy, some weaknesses persist [5]. - Recent progress in trade agreements between Japan and the U.S. is highlighted, with Japan committing to invest $550 billion in the U.S. and the U.S. imposing a 15% tariff on certain Japanese imports [5]. Future Rate Hikes - There is a consensus among various institutions that a rate hike in October is likely, with HSBC predicting a 25 basis point increase to 0.75% [6]. - Other institutions, such as the Netherlands International and Mizuho Bank, also view October as a potential time for a rate hike, with Mizuho suggesting it could be the last hike of the year [7]. - The BOJ Governor is scheduled to hold a press conference to explain the rate decision, indicating ongoing communication regarding monetary policy [7].

Monetary Policy - The Federal Reserve maintained the benchmark interest rate at 4.25%-4.50%, aligning with market expectations[2] - The Fed has kept rates unchanged throughout the year due to uncertainties from tariff policies, inflation pressures, and economic instability[3] - The anticipated rate cuts for the year are expected to total between 50 to 75 basis points, contingent on future inflation data and tariff adjustments[6] Economic Indicators - The U.S. June CPI rose by 2.7% year-on-year, with core CPI increasing by 2.9%, indicating moderate inflation despite tariff impacts[3] - The unemployment rate has decreased to 4.1%, but job growth is primarily in the public sector, suggesting vulnerabilities in the labor market[3] Fiscal Policy and Market Sentiment - The "Big and Beautiful" tax and spending bill signed by President Trump reflects pressures on U.S. fiscal and economic stability, with potential risks of increasing debt if fiscal stimulus fails to translate into economic growth[4] - Concerns over the independence of the Federal Reserve have been heightened due to political interference, which could lead to increased market uncertainty[6] Tariff Policy Implications - Ongoing tariff negotiations with Japan and Europe show signs of easing, which may influence the Fed's decision to adjust interest rates more rapidly if inflationary pressures are less than expected[6] - The impact of tariffs on prices remains uncertain, with further assessments needed based on upcoming inflation data in August and September[3]

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Japan (BOJ) has maintained its benchmark interest rate at 0.5% while raising its inflation forecast, indicating a potential shift towards interest rate hikes in the near future [1][4]. Economic Outlook - The BOJ has increased its average inflation forecast for the current fiscal year from 2.2% to 2.7%, surpassing market expectations of 2.5% [1]. - The BOJ has also slightly raised its economic growth forecast for 2026 and 2027, reflecting a more optimistic outlook [1][4]. Inflation and Monetary Policy - The BOJ's monetary policy committee has assessed the overall risk of inflation to be balanced, suggesting a readiness to consider interest rate hikes if conditions allow [4][8]. - The central bank's latest report indicates that trade uncertainties have decreased, allowing for a more focused evaluation of the economic impact of tariffs [6][8]. Market Reactions - Following the BOJ's announcement, the Japanese yen appreciated against the US dollar, and the yield on 2-year Japanese government bonds rose by 1.5 basis points to 0.835% [4][6]. - The BOJ's adjustments in inflation expectations are driven by rising food prices, particularly rice, which have contributed to Japan having one of the highest inflation rates among G7 countries [6][8].

日本央行周四维持利率不变，并上调了本财年的通胀预期，表明对日美贸易协议将有助于日本经济避免 大幅下滑持谨慎乐观态度。正如市场普遍预期的那样，日本央行一致投票将短期利率维持在0.5%不 变。在季度展望报告中，日本央行将本财年的核心消费者通胀预期从三个月前的2.2%上调至2.7%。日 本央行行长植田和男将于北京时间14:30召开新闻发布会，解释利率决定。 ...

日本央行上调了核心CPI预期，表明对日美贸易协议将有助于日本经济避免大幅下滑持谨慎乐观态度。 该央行预计潜在消费者通胀率可能在2025财年到2027年预测期的下半年达到与2%目标基本一致的水平。其2025-2027财年核心CPI预期中值分别为2.7%、 1.8%和2.0%。（5月份预期为2.2%、1.7%和1.9%）。 周四，日本央行以一致投票做出利率决定，维持基准利率在0.5%不变，为连续第四次会议按兵不动，符合市场预期。 美元兑日元短线走高20点后迅速回落，短线波幅逾30点。 与此同时，日本央行还略微上调了今年的经济增长预期，将2025财年的GDP同比增长预期从之前的0.5%调整为0.6%。 日本央行表示，经济前景风险偏向下行，贸易政策及其发展带来的不确定性对经济和价格前景的影响仍然很高。 交易员将寻找日本央行可能就利率前景提供的任何线索。日本央行行长植田和男将于北京时间14:30召开货币政策新闻发布会。 由于官员们可能需要时间来评估美国关税将如何影响日本经济和全球商业，日本央行避免就未来加息的时间给出任何明确暗示。 持续更新中..... 这一表述软化了对贸易不确定性的描述，表明贸易不确定性不再"极高"， ...

日本央行：如果经济和物价展望实现，将会加息。 2025和2026财年经济面临下行风险。 日本的贸易政策出现积极进展，需要监控贸易政策对财政体系的冲击。 利率决议是一致通过的。 需要留意前景展望出现巨大变化的可能。 通胀预期已经温和上升。 日本实际利率处于极低水平。 物价趋势将与下半年的展望目标相一致。 物价风险大体平衡。 贸易和其他政策如何演变依旧高度不确定。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Japan indicates that rising food prices may lead to a second-round effect on core CPI inflation by altering household sentiment and inflation expectations [1] Group 1 - The Bank of Japan is concerned about the impact of food price increases on consumer behavior and overall inflation [1] - There is a potential for food price inflation to influence broader economic indicators, particularly core CPI [1] - The central bank is monitoring these developments closely as they could affect monetary policy decisions in the future [1]

Group 1 - The Bank of Japan indicates a moderate rise in inflation expectations, suggesting a potential shift in monetary policy outlook [1] - Output and exports in Japan are likely to remain weak, reflecting ongoing economic challenges [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - Gold prices declined as Powell did not give a clear indication of a September rate cut, causing the expectation of a September rate cut to cool off. Despite a brief recovery due to the Fed's statement about slower economic growth, gold prices continued to fall. There is still downward pressure on gold prices due to factors such as the Trump tariff deadline, the weakening rate - cut expectation, and the significant decline of international copper [4]. - Silver prices dropped significantly as the Trump administration excluded the most imported refined copper from tariffs, combined with the cooling off of the Fed's September rate - cut expectation. There is also downward pressure on silver prices, but the impact of the Trump tariff event is limited [5]. Summary by Directory 1. Previous Day's Review - **Gold**: The US three major stock indexes showed mixed performance, European major stock indexes closed slightly higher, US bond yields fell collectively, the 10 - year yield dropped 8.75 basis points to 4.322%, the US dollar index rose 1.06% to 99.97, the offshore RMB depreciated significantly against the US dollar to 7.2123, and COMEX gold futures fell 1.58% to $3327.9 per ounce [4]. - **Silver**: The US three major stock indexes closed down across the board, European major stock indexes closed up across the board, US bond yields fell collectively, the 10 - year yield dropped 8.75 basis points to 4.322%, the US dollar index rose 0.27% to 98.92, the offshore RMB appreciated slightly against the US dollar to 7.1808, and COMEX silver futures fell 2.90% to $37.175 per ounce [5]. 2. Daily Tips - **Gold**: The basis is - 4.36, with the spot at a discount to the futures; the gold futures warehouse receipt increased by 2199 kilograms to 33462 kilograms; the 20 - day moving average is upward, and the k - line is below the 20 - day moving average; the main net position is long, and the main long position decreased [4]. - **Silver**: The basis is - 24, with the spot at a discount to the futures; the Shanghai silver futures warehouse receipt increased by 3228 kilograms to 1208094 kilograms; the 20 - day moving average is upward, and the k - line is above the 20 - day moving average; the main net position is long, and the main long position decreased [5]. 3. Today's Focus - There are multiple events to watch, including the RBA Deputy Governor Hauser's participation in a fireside chat at 07:20, Japan's June industrial output preliminary value and retail sales at 07:50, the meeting between the US and South Korean finance ministers (time to be determined), China's July official manufacturing, non - manufacturing, and composite PMI at 09:30, the Bank of Japan's announcement of the interest rate decision and economic outlook report (time to be determined), the Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda's press conference on monetary policy at 14:30, France's July CPI preliminary value at 14:45, Germany's July CPI preliminary value at 20:00, the US July 26 - week initial jobless claims at 20:30, and the US Federal Circuit Court's hearing of President Trump's "reciprocal tariff" case (time to be determined) [14]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Gold**: The Fed's statement mentioned slower economic growth, and although gold prices briefly recovered, Powell's press conference did not give a clear indication of a September rate cut and emphasized inflation risks. The premium of Shanghai gold expanded to 3.7 yuan/gram, and the RMB depreciated significantly, causing the premium to rise rapidly [4]. - **Silver**: The Trump administration's decision to exclude the most imported refined copper from tariffs led to a significant drop in silver prices, combined with the cooling off of the Fed's September rate - cut expectation [5]. 5. Position Data - **Gold**: The main net position is long, and the main long position decreased [4]. - **Silver**: The main net position is long, and the main long position decreased [5].