Economic Outlook - Brazil's Ministry of Finance has revised the GDP growth forecast for this year from 2.5% to 2.3% [1] - Inflation expectations have also been adjusted downwards from 4.9% to 4.8% [1] Impact of Tariffs - The potential imposition of tariffs by the U.S. from August 2025 to December 2026 could lead to a 0.2 percentage point decrease in Brazil's GDP growth [1] - However, the "Brazil Sovereignty Plan" is expected to mitigate this negative impact, reducing the GDP growth decline to 0.1 percentage points [1] Employment Effects - Without considering the effects of the "Brazil Sovereignty Plan," Brazil could lose approximately 138,000 jobs [1] - The services sector may see a loss of 51,800 jobs, representing about 0.1% of total employment in that sector [1] - The industrial sector is projected to lose 71,500 jobs, accounting for roughly 0.4% of its total employment [1] Additional Economic Indicators - The share of exports in GDP is expected to decline by 0.1 percentage points [1] - The unemployment rate may increase by 0.1 percentage points [1] - Inflation rate is anticipated to rise by 0.1 percentage points [1]

新华财经北京9月17日电（王姝睿）印尼央行在9月政策会议上意外降息25个基点至4.75%，为2022年底 以来最低利率水平，打破市场维持利率不变的预期。该决策基于2025-2026年印尼通胀将维持在2.5% ±1%目标区间内的预期，且需要持续支持经济增长。 印尼央行行长佩里·瓦吉约表示，该利率决定已考虑美联储降息的可能性。 目前印尼经济增长仍低于国内产能，需求需要推动。佩里·瓦吉约称，降息是为了支持经济增长，利率 决定旨在确保印尼卢比汇率反映基本面，将继续评估降息空间以推动经济增长，在考虑通胀和印尼卢比 汇率的因素后，再决定是否进一步降息。印尼央行将加强宽松的宏观审慎政策，加大货币扩张力度，以 支持贷款、GDP增长；将使用货币政策操作以加强基准利率下调的传导效果。 近期受国内政治局势影响，印尼卢比波动性有所上升。分析称，预计印尼央行将继续通过干预离岸及在 岸无本金交割远期（NDF）市场、即期市场，以及在二级市场购债等方式，强化稳定市场的举措。印尼 央行还将通过开放流动性通道来确保银行拥有足够的流动性。 同时，印尼央行还将隔夜存款便利利率下调50个基点至3.75%，贷款便利利率下调25个基点至5.50%。 印尼 ...

•美国银行：经济数据表明当前的金融环境对黄金有利 •银河期货：贵金属在流动性宽松的预期下迎来了新的突破 强劲走势有望延续 •光大期货：谨防短线利多落地后的市场大幅波动 •正信期货：金融和避险属性为贵金属提供底部支撑 预计未来延续震荡上行 •银河期货表示，美联储9月FOMC会议召开在即，当前9月降息25bps已接近完全定价，市场博弈聚焦于 交易未来更快和更大的降息幅度的可能性。从美国近期的宏观"硬"数据来看，8月CPI尽管再度反弹，但 较为温和且整体仍符合市场的预期；同时，8月非农数据爆冷且对此前数据出现年度级别的大幅下修， 凸显出美国劳动力市场的脆弱性，市场对于美联储年内三次降息的预期持续走高。在这种背景下，美元 和美债收益率偏弱运行，贵金属也在流动性宽松的预期下迎来了新的突破，强劲走势有望延续。提示关 注周四凌晨的议息会议结果，市场波动可能阶段性放大。 •光大期货表示，美国8月零售销售环比增0.6%，连续三个月超预期增长，实际零售销售连续11个月增 长，经济韧性凸显。另外，美众院共和党人提出短期支出议案避免政府关门，缓解市场避险情绪。美联 储议息将至，黄金市场表现依然强势，表明市场对年内降息次数和幅度有所期 ...

Group 1 - The article highlights that global stock indices mostly rose, with significant increases in the Nikkei 225 (up 4.1%) and the Hang Seng Index (up 3.8%) [2][3] - Precious metals prices have continued to rise for three consecutive weeks, with COMEX gold increasing by 1.3% to $3646.3 per ounce [2][56] - The U.S. market has fully priced in expectations for three interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve within the year, following the August CPI data release [2][87] Group 2 - Japan's Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba announced his resignation, which has heightened expectations for more expansive fiscal policies in Japan [2][68] - The resignation is attributed to the ruling party's historic losses in elections, leading to a potential increase in long-term interest rates if a more expansionary fiscal policy is adopted [2][68] - The 30-year Japanese government bond yield rose to 3.3% following the announcement, indicating market reactions to potential fiscal changes [2][68] Group 3 - The article notes that the U.S. average tariff rate stands at 9.75%, with a notably high rate of 40.36% on imports from China, contributing approximately $10.1 billion in tariff revenue [2][72] - The U.S. Supreme Court is set to review tariff policies, which could impact future tariff structures [2][72] Group 4 - The U.S. Treasury auction results indicate strong demand for government bonds, particularly in the mid-term category, with bid-to-cover ratios exceeding 3 for certain maturities [2][74] - The auction results reflect robust interest from global institutions in locking in U.S. Treasury yields [2][74] Group 5 - As of September 9, the cumulative fiscal deficit for the U.S. in 2025 reached $1.32 trillion, slightly up from $1.31 trillion in the previous year [2][75] - Total expenditures for the year amounted to $5.67 trillion, compared to $5.30 trillion in the same period last year [2][75]

Economic Outlook - The economic sentiment in the Eurozone improved in September, with the economic sentiment index rising by 1.0 points to 26.1, exceeding market expectations of 20.3 [1] - The current economic situation index also improved by 2.4 points to -28.8, indicating a more favorable outlook [1] - Approximately 51.7% of surveyed analysts expect stable economic activity, while 37.2% anticipate improvement, and 11.1% foresee deterioration [1] Labor Costs - Eurozone hourly labor costs increased by 3.6% year-on-year in Q2, slightly below the preliminary estimate of 3.7% but higher than the revised 3.4% in Q1 [1] - Wage growth was recorded at 3.7% in Q2, up from 3.5% in Q1, while non-wage costs grew by 3.4%, compared to the previous 3.2% [1] - Labor costs in the business economy sector rose by 4.0%, with construction leading at 4.7%, followed by services at 4.3%, and industry at 3.3% [1] Industrial Production - Eurozone industrial production increased by 0.3% month-on-month in July, reversing a previous decline of 0.6% and aligning with market expectations [2] - Year-on-year, industrial production grew by 1.8%, significantly faster than the 0.7% growth in June [2] - Notable increases were seen in capital goods production, which rebounded by 1.3%, durable consumer goods by 1.1%, and non-durable consumer goods by 1.5% [2] Economic Dynamics - The data indicates a recovery in economic momentum within the Eurozone, although persistently high labor costs may support inflation [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The market is awaiting the Fed's decision, with Trump continuing to apply pressure, leading to higher gold and silver prices. The US three major stock indexes closed higher, European three major stock indexes mostly rose, US Treasury yields fell, the US dollar index declined, and the offshore RMB appreciated slightly against the US dollar. With the approaching September Fed meeting, gold prices strengthened again before the meeting, and silver prices followed gold prices, with the sentiment remaining strong [4][5]. - After Trump took office, the world entered a period of extreme turmoil and change, with inflation expectations shifting to economic recession expectations. Gold prices are difficult to fall, and silver prices mainly follow gold prices. There are still risks of increased gains in silver prices due to tariff concerns [9][12]. Summary by Directory 1. Previous Day's Review - **Gold**: The market awaited the Fed's decision, with Trump continuing to apply pressure, causing gold prices to rise. The US three major stock indexes closed higher, European three major stock indexes mostly rose, US Treasury yields fell, the US dollar index declined, and the offshore RMB appreciated slightly against the US dollar. COMEX gold futures rose 0.90% to $3719.50 per ounce. The basis was -3.88, with the spot at a discount to the futures. Gold futures warehouse receipts increased by 2799 kilograms to 52950 kilograms. The 20 - day moving average was upward, and the K - line was above the 20 - day moving average. The main net position was long, but the main long positions decreased [4]. - **Silver**: Similar to gold, the market awaited the Fed's decision, with Trump continuing to apply pressure, leading to higher silver prices. COMEX silver futures rose 0.84% to $43.19 per ounce. The basis was -25, with the spot at a discount to the futures. Shanghai silver futures warehouse receipts increased by 6382 kilograms to 1246569 kilograms. The 20 - day moving average was upward, and the K - line was above the 20 - day moving average. The main net position was long, but the main long positions decreased [5]. 2. Daily Tips - **Gold**: The logic is that after Trump took office, the world entered a period of extreme turmoil and change, with inflation expectations shifting to economic recession expectations, making it difficult for gold prices to fall. The verification between the expectations and the reality of the US new government's policies will continue, and the sentiment for gold prices is high, remaining prone to rise and difficult to fall [9]. - **Silver**: Silver prices mainly follow gold prices. There are stronger tariff concerns for silver prices, and there is a risk of increased gains. The global situation is turbulent, with the resurgence of risk - aversion sentiment, the shadow Fed is significant, the expectation of interest rate cuts has risen again, the situations in Russia - Ukraine and the Middle East are tense, inflation has resurfaced, and tariff concerns have an impact [12]. 3. Today's Focus - 07:50: Sarah Hunter, Assistant Governor for Economic Affairs at the Reserve Bank of Australia, participates in a fireside chat during the 2025 AFIA Conference in Sydney. - Time TBD: The 2025 Tencent Global Digital Ecosystem Conference, the 2025 World Energy Storage Conference in Ningde, Fujian, and the 2025 BRICS New Industrial Revolution Partnership Forum are held. - 14:00: UK July three - month ILO employment figures and unemployment rate are released. - 14:30: Bank of Thailand Governor Sethaput Suthiwart - Narueput holds a briefing on the economy and monetary policy. - 15:00: European Central Bank Governing Council member Gediminas Simkus presents the economic outlook report for Lithuania. - Time TBD: US President Trump visits the UK, possibly lasting until September 18, accompanied by executives from companies such as Nvidia, OpenAI, and BlackRock. - 16:00: European Central Bank Governing Council member Jose Luis Escriva speaks in Madrid, Spain. - 17:00: Germany's September ZEW economic sentiment index is released. - 19:00: The Bank of Spain releases a new economic outlook report. - 20:30: US August retail sales, August import and export price indexes, and Canada's August CPI are released. - Time TBD: The two - day FOMC monetary policy meeting of the Fed begins. - 21:15: US August industrial production data is released. - 22:00: US September NAHB housing market index and July business inventory data are released [14]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Gold and Silver Price Movements**: The report shows the price movements of various gold and silver products, including Shanghai gold and silver futures, COMEX gold and silver futures, SGE gold and silver T + D, London gold and silver spot prices, and the US dollar index [15]. - **US Treasury Yields**: US Treasury yields fell collectively, with the 10 - year US Treasury yield dropping 3.64 basis points to 4.034% [4][5][25]. - **ETF Holdings**: SPDR gold ETF holdings decreased, and silver ETF holdings continued to decrease but were higher than the same period in the past two years [33][36]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: COMEX gold warehouse receipts increased slightly and remained at a high level, while Shanghai gold warehouse receipts remained flat. Shanghai silver warehouse receipts decreased slightly but were higher than the same period last year, and COMEX silver warehouse receipts continued to increase, with renewed tariff concerns [37][39]. 5. Position Data - **Shanghai Gold Top 20 Positions**: As of September 15, 2025, the long positions were 250,048, a decrease of 1,099 (-0.44%) compared to September 14; the short positions were 85,595, an increase of 1,315 (1.56%); the net positions were 164,453, a decrease of 2,414 (-1.45%) [30]. - **Shanghai Silver Top 20 Positions**: As of September 15, 2025, the long positions were 375,292, a decrease of 10,769 (-2.79%) compared to September 12; the short positions were 279,860, a decrease of 5,297 (-1.86%); the net positions were 95,432, a decrease of 5,472 (-5.42%) [31].

Group 1: Economic Overview - US consumer confidence has reached its lowest level since May, with a preliminary index of 55.4 for September, down 4.8% from August and down 21% year-on-year [1][4] - The current economic conditions index for September is 61.2, a decrease of 0.8% month-on-month and 3.3% year-on-year, while the consumer expectations index is at 51.8, down 7.3% month-on-month and 30.4% year-on-year [1][4] - Domestic economic conditions in China remain stable, with industrial production growing by 5.2% year-on-year in August [2] Group 2: Copper Market Analysis - There has been a continuous inflow of imported copper, but expectations for domestic copper supply are decreasing, leading to a build-up in electrolytic copper inventories [1][4] - As of September 15, the SMM national mainstream copper inventory increased by 0.99 million tons to 15.42 million tons, with inventory rising in regions outside Shanghai [3] - The average price for SMM 1 electrolytic copper is reported between 80,780 and 81,100 yuan per ton, with a slight decrease in the premium over the previous trading day [3][5] Group 3: Aluminum Market Analysis - The supply of aluminum has seen a slight increase, while terminal consumption is recovering; however, high aluminum prices are suppressing downstream consumption [1][4] - As of September 15, the domestic mainstream consumption area for electrolytic aluminum ingot inventory is 63.7 million tons, an increase of 1.2 million tons from the previous week [3][6] - The price for SMM A00 aluminum is reported at 20,950 yuan per ton, down 70 yuan from the previous trading day [3][6]

Group 1 - The core driving factors for the rise in gold prices during a rate cut cycle are multifaceted, involving economic, financial, and market psychology dimensions [2] - The decline in real interest rates is a key driver for gold valuation, as lower nominal rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding gold, which is a non-yielding asset [3][4] - The classic cost of carry model indicates that gold prices have an inverse relationship with real interest rates, leading to increased marginal demand for gold when real rates fall below a certain threshold [3] Group 2 - The weakening of the dollar's credit during a rate cut cycle typically results in a depreciating dollar index, which directly boosts gold prices due to the pricing effect [4][5] - Emerging market central banks may diversify their reserves by increasing gold holdings to reduce the proportion of USD in their foreign exchange reserves, reflecting a trend of "de-dollarization" [6] Group 3 - Market behavior is reinforced by both speculative and hedging demands, with hedge funds often positioning for long positions in gold futures ahead of rate cut expectations [7] - Increased volatility can trigger algorithmic buying strategies, further driving up gold prices [8] - Concerns about economic downturns lead to preemptive hedging in gold allocations, as rate cuts are often seen as a response to potential recessions [9] Group 4 - The long-term structural support for gold is influenced by financial repression effects, where low interest rates may lead to government debt expansion and concerns about currency devaluation [11] - The global scale of negative yield bonds has surpassed $18 trillion, enhancing the relative attractiveness of gold as a zero-yield asset [12] Group 5 - Historical data shows that in six rate cut cycles since 1970, gold prices have increased by 12%-35% in five instances, with the exception being during the 2007 financial crisis when liquidity issues led to asset sell-offs [13]

Group 1: Economic Indicators - In August, the U.S. CPI increased slightly to 2.9% year-on-year, up from 2.7% in July, while the core CPI remained unchanged at 3.1%[6] - The U.S. non-farm unemployment rate rose to 4.3% in August, an increase of 0.1 percentage points from July, and the U6 unemployment rate increased to 8.1%, up 0.2 percentage points[13] - The initial jobless claims in the week of September 5 reached 263,000, the highest level this year, exceeding the market expectation of 235,000[13] Group 2: Market Performance - Commodity prices generally rose, with IPE Brent crude futures up 1.8%, London gold up 1.6%, and COMEX copper up 1.4% during the week of September 5-12[2] - Major stock markets saw gains, with the Nikkei 225 rising 4.1%, the Hang Seng Index up 3.8%, and the S&P 500 increasing by 1.6%[2] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield fell slightly to 4.06%, a decrease of 0.04 percentage points from the previous week[5] Group 3: Policy and Expectations - The Federal Reserve is expected to lower interest rates in September, with a focus on the impact of tariffs on inflation and the potential recovery of the job market post-tax cuts[1] - The European Central Bank maintained its deposit facility rate at 2%, indicating that the process of reducing inflation in the Eurozone has concluded[23] - The Bank of Japan may raise interest rates later this year, as economic conditions are reportedly aligning with expectations[23]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve is likely to initiate its first rate cut of the year next week, with expectations of further reductions throughout 2024. However, the real challenge will arise in 2026 due to a shift towards expansionary fiscal policy, a dovish new chair, and AI-driven productivity gains potentially reviving inflation expectations and asset bubbles [2] - The labor market is expected to soften, with indicators showing a rise in unemployment, a decrease in job vacancies, and a cooling turnover rate. This will prompt the Fed to adjust policy rates towards a neutral level of approximately 3% [3] - As the policy rate approaches 3%, the Fed will face multiple challenges, including potential fiscal expansion regardless of election outcomes, which may lead to increased deficits and fiscal stimulus by 2026 [4] Group 2 - The market has priced in a dovish outlook for a potential new chair, with expectations for terminal rates significantly lower than historical averages and a reduced likelihood of rate hikes [5] - The potential for AI to enhance productivity has raised the estimated GDP growth rate to 2.25%, with further increases possible as AI applications become more widespread [6] - Financial conditions have already loosened, with the financial conditions index in the U.S. having declined by 75 basis points since June, indicating that the market has effectively absorbed some of the Fed's easing [6] Group 3 - High inflation expectations may lead to a resurgence in economic growth without a recession by 2026, benefiting real assets such as commodities, real estate, and infrastructure, as well as Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) [7] - The stock market may continue to benefit from loose liquidity, but its high valuations make it more sensitive to interest rate fluctuations, potentially increasing volatility [7] Group 4 - Investors are advised to increase allocations to real assets and short-duration inflation-linked bonds to hedge against rising inflation premiums [8] - Attention should be given to sectors that directly benefit from fiscal stimulus, including green infrastructure, traditional energy, defense, and AI computing hardware [8] - A tactical approach is recommended for long-duration growth stocks, avoiding excessive chasing after rates drop to 3% [9] - Option strategies may be employed to hedge against potential volatility arising from a dovish chair and fiscal expansion [9] Group 5 - In the early stages of the rate-cutting cycle, the market can follow the Fed's easing pace. However, as rates approach neutral levels, new variables in fiscal policy, technology, and political appointments will complicate the Fed's decision-making process [10] - Identifying and positioning in real assets and inflation protection tools may be crucial for navigating the complexities ahead [10]