Core Viewpoint - International gold prices have rebounded strongly, reaching historical highs, driven by market expectations of interest rate cuts and increased demand for safe-haven assets [1] Group 1: Gold Price Performance - On Monday night, international gold prices surged, with London spot gold and Comex futures reaching $4,381.484 per ounce and $4,398.0 per ounce, respectively, both marking historical highs [1] - Gold ETFs showed strong performance, with the gold ETF (518680) opening higher and peaking with a gain of over 2.5%, currently up 1.87%. Since September, it has accumulated a rise of over 26% and nearly 67% year-to-date [1] Group 2: Fund Flows and ETF Growth - As of October 20, gold ETFs have seen a continuous inflow of funds for 10 days, with a net inflow of 650 million yuan. Year-to-date, the fund has increased by 379 million shares and 384 million yuan, bringing the total shares to 510 million and the total scale to 4.95 billion yuan [1] Group 3: Market Influences - Recent statements from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell suggest an end to balance sheet reduction, alongside signs of a weakening job market, which have strengthened market expectations for an interest rate cut in October, with the probability now at 97% [1] - Ongoing Sino-U.S. trade tensions, exposure of credit risks in U.S. regional banks, and the London silver short squeeze have collectively boosted demand for safe-haven assets, providing strong support for the prices of gold and silver [1]

Core Viewpoint - The global gold market is experiencing a paradox of soaring prices alongside declining consumption, driven by a significant restructuring of demand dynamics, where traditional consumption is waning while investment and functional demand are surging [1] Traditional Consumption Demand - Traditional gold consumption, primarily for jewelry and weddings, is undergoing a notable decline, characterized by three main trends [2] - Wedding demand is shifting from "must buy" to "can rent," with the percentage of newlyweds purchasing full sets of gold jewelry dropping from 68% in 2023 to 32% in 2025, while the rental option has increased from 5% to 28% [2] - The cost of traditional gold jewelry has surged over 64% year-on-year, leading to a rise in sales of alternative materials like silver and alloy, which increased by 45% [2] Gift Demand - The demand for gold as a gift is significantly shrinking, with the proportion of gold gift consumption dropping from 18% in 2023 to 9% in 2025, marking the largest decline among all consumption categories [3] - High gold prices have made gifting gold less appealing, as the amount of gold that can be purchased for the same budget has halved, prompting consumers to opt for practical gifts like electronics instead [3] Investment Demand - In stark contrast to declining consumption, investment demand for gold is experiencing a robust surge, with various investor profiles entering the market [4] - Ordinary investors are increasingly turning to "accumulated gold" and "gold ETFs," with over 12 million personal accounts opened for accumulated gold, and monthly trading volumes exceeding 300 tons [5] - High-net-worth individuals prefer physical gold bars, with consumption reaching 293 tons in the first half of 2025, a 26% increase year-on-year [6] - Institutional investors, including central banks, are strategically increasing their gold holdings, with China's central bank having added gold for 11 consecutive months, reaching 7.406 million ounces by the end of September [7] Market Transformation Logic and Outlook - The transformation in gold demand reflects a dual drive of pragmatic consumption and risk aversion in the current economic environment [8] - Traditional gold retailers must adapt by increasing the proportion of lightweight and design-oriented products while reducing premiums [8] - The market is evolving from a singular focus on jewelry or investment to a composite asset that encompasses consumption, investment, and liquidity, indicating a long-term shift in market dynamics [8]

Core Viewpoint - The international gold market is experiencing significant volatility, with prices recently soaring above $4059 per ounce before a sharp correction of over $100, creating opportunities for traders to profit from both rising and falling markets [1][3]. Group 1: Factors Influencing Gold Prices - The recent surge in gold prices is driven by three main factors: increased demand for safe-haven assets, central bank purchases, and expectations of monetary policy changes [3]. - The U.S. government shutdown on October 1 raised market concerns, leading to a surge in gold as a safe-haven asset [3]. - Global central banks have significantly increased their gold reserves, with Poland, Turkey, and Kazakhstan collectively adding over 100 tons this year, marking the highest demand for official gold reserves in 55 years [3]. - The Federal Reserve's recent interest rate cut and expectations for further cuts have weakened the returns on cash holdings, prompting a shift of funds into the gold market [3]. Group 2: Market Reactions and Trends - The recent drop in gold prices can be attributed to the rising U.S. dollar index, which has increased costs for overseas buyers, thereby suppressing market demand [3]. - A ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas has diminished gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset, leading to profit-taking and a withdrawal of some safe-haven funds from the gold market [3]. - Despite short-term volatility, the long-term bullish outlook for gold remains intact due to ongoing geopolitical tensions and the trend of central banks increasing gold purchases [4]. Group 3: Investment Opportunities - The current market conditions present numerous trading opportunities, with gold prices recently surpassing $4200 per ounce, and each significant pullback potentially setting the stage for future liquidity premiums [5]. - The T+0 trading mechanism in the gold market allows investors to buy and sell flexibly, enabling them to respond to market changes effectively [5]. - Companies like Huangyu Precious Metals are promoting investment opportunities by offering a $50,000 bonus to attract new investors, emphasizing the importance of choosing compliant trading platforms for profitability [6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the non-ferrous and steel industry in China [6]. Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes the importance of future positioning rather than past defensive strategies, suggesting that investors should focus on opportunities for excess returns in the upcoming year [9][15]. - Gold prices are expected to experience high volatility in the short term but are projected to reach new highs in the medium term due to credit and safe-haven demand [16]. - The rare earth sector is anticipated to maintain its strategic importance despite short-term price declines, with a widening supply-demand gap expected in the medium term [17]. - The copper market is viewed positively, with expectations of price increases in the medium term, encouraging investors to buy on dips [17]. Summary by Sections 1. Non-Ferrous Metals - Gold: Short-term volatility is high, but medium-term prospects are strong with expectations of new highs supported by credit and safe-haven demand [16]. - Rare Earths: Short-term price declines do not diminish the medium-term strategic position, with an anticipated widening supply-demand gap [17]. - Copper: Strong medium-term price outlook, with a recommendation to buy on dips due to expected economic recovery and increased manufacturing investment [17]. 2. Steel Industry - Profitability: Short-term profitability is under pressure, with both prices and costs declining [28]. - Supply and Demand: Weekly rebar consumption decreased to 2.2 million tons, down 8.84% week-on-week and 14.77% year-on-year [24][18]. - Inventory: Both social and steel mill inventories have increased, indicating a potential oversupply situation [25]. - Prices: The overall steel price index has slightly decreased, with specific products like hot-rolled steel experiencing a notable drop [38]. 3. New Energy Metals - Supply: Significant increase in lithium production, with August 2025 output reaching 80,040 tons, up 46.54% year-on-year [42]. - Demand: High growth in new energy vehicle production and sales, with August 2025 figures showing a 26% increase year-on-year [48]. - Prices: Lithium prices have risen, with battery-grade lithium carbonate averaging 75,750 yuan per ton, reflecting a 3.55% week-on-week increase [55].

Group 1 - The U.S. government shutdown has entered its 20th day with no resolution in sight, as multiple attempts to pass a temporary funding bill have failed, marking the tenth unsuccessful attempt [1] - The Federal Reserve is expected to hold a meeting on October 28-29, with market expectations leaning towards a further 25 basis point rate cut to support a weakening job market while aiming to bring high inflation back to 2% [1] - Spot gold prices surged over 2% on Monday, reaching a new historical high of $4,381.49 per ounce during trading, closing at $4,355.69 per ounce, while COMEX gold futures rose by 3.82% to $4,374.30 per ounce [1] Group 2 - As of October 20, the Shanghai Gold ETF (518600) has seen a net asset value increase of 55.69% over the past year, with a maximum monthly return of 11.46% since inception [2] - The Shanghai Gold ETF has reached a record high of 377 million shares, with a recent net inflow of 658 million yuan, leading its category [2] - The ETF primarily invests in Shanghai Gold Exchange contracts, aiming to provide returns closely aligned with the performance of these contracts while minimizing tracking deviation [2] Group 3 - The Shanghai Gold ETF (518600) offers a cost-effective and convenient investment option in gold without physical delivery, supporting T+0 trading [3]

Core Insights - The gold sector is experiencing a strong upward trend, with the CSI Gold Industry Index rising by 1.70% and key stocks like Zhaojin Mining and Zijin Mining showing significant gains [1] - The Gold Stock ETF has seen a notable increase in both scale and shares, indicating growing investor interest and confidence in gold as a safe-haven asset [2] - The ongoing U.S. government shutdown is contributing to economic uncertainty, which is further driving demand for gold and other precious metals [3] Group 1: Market Performance - The CSI Gold Industry Index (931238) increased by 1.70%, with Zhaojin Mining (01818) up 4.13% and Zijin Mining (02899) up 3.82% [1] - The Gold Stock ETF (517520) rose by 1.91%, with a 10.48% increase over the past month [1][2] Group 2: Fund Flows and Investor Sentiment - The Gold Stock ETF has seen a scale increase of 320 million yuan over the past week, ranking it among the top in its category [2] - The ETF's shares reached a new high of 6.8 billion, reflecting strong investor interest [2] - Continuous net inflows into the Gold Stock ETF over the past eight days totaled 1.965 billion yuan, with a peak single-day inflow of 583 million yuan [2] Group 3: Economic Context - The U.S. government shutdown has led to significant delays in economic data releases, increasing market uncertainty and boosting safe-haven demand for gold [3] - Political and economic concerns are identified as key drivers for the recent rebound in gold prices following a decline [3] - Expectations for a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve have risen to 97%, further supporting gold prices [3]

Core Viewpoint - The spot gold market has shown a "strong breakthrough + high-level fluctuation" characteristic since October 2025, with prices surpassing the historical threshold of $4200 per ounce and continuing to rise, supported by multiple favorable factors [1] Group 1: Current Market Performance - International spot gold prices have been particularly strong, reaching $4360.82 per ounce as of October 21, with a daily increase of 2.90% and a five-day cumulative increase of over 4.8% [2] - Domestic market, represented by Shanghai Gold (Gold T+D), also saw a price of 996.36 yuan per gram, reflecting a 2.35% increase, indicating a close correlation with international prices [2] - Retail demand for physical gold has shown a slight decline due to high prices, with mainstream gold shop prices ranging from 1258 to 1268 yuan per gram, down by 0.86%-1.72% [2] Group 2: Technical Analysis - The daily chart indicates that London gold has broken previous resistance levels, with KDJ and RSI indicators in the overbought zone but not showing clear reversal signals, suggesting continued bullish momentum [3] - Key resistance levels are identified between $4380 and $4400 per ounce, while support levels are at $4300, $4218, and the psychological level of $4200 [3] Group 3: Driving Factors - Three core supportive factors are driving gold prices upward: 1. Increased safe-haven demand due to geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainties, including the U.S. government shutdown and renewed political tensions in Europe [4] 2. Central banks' ongoing large-scale gold purchases, making gold the second-largest reserve asset globally, which reduces the available market supply [4] 3. Shifts in market expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's policies, with dovish expectations leading to a weaker dollar and lower real interest rates, enhancing gold's investment appeal [4] Group 4: Trading Strategies - Short-term trading strategies suggest focusing on the $4300-$4380 per ounce range, with a primary strategy of buying on dips and selling on rebounds [7] - For medium-term investors, buying opportunities are recommended in the $4200-$4250 per ounce range, with a stop-loss set below $4180 [8] - Risk management principles emphasize strict stop-loss and take-profit settings, controlling position sizes, and monitoring key economic data and geopolitical events [9][10] Group 5: Conclusion - The current spot gold market is characterized by a "strong trend + high-level fluctuation" phase, supported by three favorable factors, while caution is advised regarding potential short-term pullbacks due to overbought conditions and resistance levels [11]

2025.10. 21 本文字数：2030，阅读时长大约4分钟 作者 | 第一财经 樊志菁 因投资者等待近期中美贸易谈判及美国通胀数据发布，叠加市场对美联储进一步降息的预期与避险需求 持续升温，国际金价周一大幅上涨超4%。纽约商品交易所12月交割的COMEX黄金期货日内触及4398 美元/盎司高位，再创历史新高，截至记者发稿时，金价交投于4380美元附近。 V型反转 周一，黄金在欧洲交易时段再起升势，CPM集团（CPM Group）管理合伙人克里斯蒂安（Jeffrey Christian）表示，政治与经济层面的担忧正推动金价回升。"我们预计，未来数周乃至数月内金价将进 一步走高，若短期内触及每盎司4500美元，我们也不会感到意外。"他补充道。 美国政府停摆状态进入第20天。上周，参议员们第十次尝试打破僵局，但未能成功。受"停摆"影响，美 国能源部下属国家核安全管理局约1400名员工将于20日开始被迫无薪休假，这是该机构2000年成立以 来首次。 此次停摆还导致关键经济数据发布延迟，使投资者与政策制定者在美联储下周召开政策会议前陷入 "数 据真空"。美联储主席鲍威尔14日在美国商业经济协会年会上表示，美联储想通 ...

Core Viewpoint - The market is highly sensitive to any signals from Federal Reserve officials, as the lack of clear economic data creates uncertainty, leading to potential volatility in exchange rates [1] Group 1: Currency Market Dynamics - The USD/JPY exchange rate experienced a significant drop, breaking the psychological barrier of 150, reaching a low of 149.90, with a decline of 0.30%, which heightened market tension [2] - The yen's safe-haven appeal has surged due to escalating trade tensions and geopolitical risks, resulting in increased capital inflow and a rise in the yen's value [3] - Concerns regarding Japan's fiscal health have eased, bolstered by growing expectations of a potential interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan by year-end, supported by cautious statements from Governor Kazuo Ueda [4] Group 2: U.S. Monetary Policy and Political Climate - The Federal Reserve has signaled a more dovish stance, with Chairman Jerome Powell indicating the possibility of two rate cuts in 2025, which has pressured the dollar and accelerated the shift of funds from dollar assets to yen-denominated safe-haven assets [5] - The ongoing political deadlock in the U.S. has further weighed on the dollar, with the Senate rejecting a short-term funding bill for the tenth time, raising concerns about the potential economic impact of a prolonged government shutdown [5] Group 3: Technical Analysis and Market Sentiment - Technically, the USD/JPY pair faces critical support around the 149.40 Fibonacci retracement level; a breach could lead to a rapid decline towards 148.50, indicating a cautious market sentiment [7] - Despite increasing political turmoil in Japan, strong demand for safe-haven assets has overshadowed its impact on the yen, reflecting a complex and divided market sentiment among investors [8] - Resistance levels for potential rebounds are noted at 150.30 and a more significant barrier at 151.00, making it challenging for bulls to reverse the overall bearish trend in the short term [10]

CPM集团执行合伙人Jeffrey Christian表示，在上周五的大幅抛售后，投资者对美国政治和经济方面的担忧正推动金价走高。 他补充说："我们预计金价在未来几周和几个月内将继续上涨，如果黄金很快达到4500美元/盎司的价格，我们也不会感到惊讶。" 周一，美国政府停摆进入第20天，此前参议员们上周第十次未能打破僵局。政府停摆还推迟了关键经济数据的发布，使得投资者和美联储决策者在下周的政 策会议前陷入了数据真空。因政府停摆而推迟发布的美国消费者价格指数（CPI）数据定于本周五公布。 周一，受美联储将进一步降息的预期和持续的避险需求提振，金价一度涨超2%。投资者正等待定于本周公布的美国的通胀数据。 周一美盘前，现货黄金重回4330美元上方，纽约期金向上触及4350美元/盎司，日内涨超3%。 上周五，金价一度将历史新高刷新至4370美元上方，但随后迅速回落，收跌1.8%，创下自5月中旬以来的最大单日跌幅，原因在于美国总统特朗普的言论缓 解了市场的部分担忧。 与此同时，交易员们预测美联储下周降息的可能性高达99%，并预计12月将再次降息。作为一种无息资产，黄金在低利率环境下通常表现良好。 "如果明年某个时候金价达 ...