今日必读🛍️股市财富效应对中国长假消费助力不大🎎高市早苗胜选促日元跌向重要关口🦅多位美联储官员对降息谨慎获取免费中文电子报《彭博财经早茶》，洞悉全球市场动态。Catch up on what's moving China's markets in our free Chinese language newsletter. https://t.co/5v4ojmEMhB ...

【美联储会议纪要显示通胀之忧令官员对降息持谨慎态度】智通财经10月9日电，美联储官员在上个月 的政策会议上表现出今年进一步降息的意愿，不过多位官员因通胀担忧而持谨慎态度。根据美联储会议 纪要，"多数与会者认为，在今年余下时间进一步放宽政策可能是合适的。"不过，会议纪要也显 示，"大多数官员强调其通胀预期面临上行风险。"与会官员在此次会议上以11票对1票的结果，决定将 联邦基金利率下调25基点至4%至4.25%区间 —— 这是今年以来的首次降息。唯一投反对票的是新宣誓 就职的斯蒂芬·米兰。他主张一次性降息50基点。会后发布的新预测显示，官员们的预估中值对应到年 底还会再降息两次，每次25基点。但预测也显示委员会内部存在分歧。 ...

（来源：吴说） 吴说获悉，美联储于 2025 年 9 月 16 至 17 日召开的联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）会议纪要显示，美 国上半年实际 GDP 增速放缓，劳动力市场趋软，核心 PCE 通胀维持在年内高位。多数与会官员认为在 当前背景下适度宽松是合适的，并预期年内可能进一步降息。大多数成员强调通胀上行风险依然存在， 但就业下行风险有所增加。委员会将继续推进缩表进程，预计至 2026 年一季度，银行体系准备金余额 将降至约 2.8 万亿美元。 来源：市场资讯 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Reserve Bank of New Zealand unexpectedly cut the official cash rate by 50 basis points to 2.5%, exceeding market expectations of a 25 basis point reduction, indicating potential for further rate cuts in the future [1][3]. Summary by Sections Interest Rate Cut - The Reserve Bank of New Zealand's Monetary Policy Committee announced a reduction of the official cash rate from 3% to 2.5% [3]. - A survey of 25 economists revealed that 10 expected a 50 basis point cut while 15 anticipated a 25 basis point cut [3]. Market Reaction - Following the announcement, the New Zealand dollar (NZD) fell sharply against the US dollar, with a peak decline of 1.20% to 0.5737, compared to a pre-announcement rate of 0.5797 [4]. - New Zealand bond yields dropped across the board, with the 2-year government bond yield falling by 7 basis points to 2.64% [4]. - The NZD has been the worst-performing G10 currency against the USD over the past 12 months, with a cumulative decline of 5.7% [4]. Rationale for Rate Cut - The Reserve Bank cited economic dynamics and risk balance as reasons for the rate cut, discussing both 25 and 50 basis point options [5]. - Support for a 25 basis point cut was based on existing recovery signs in consumption and employment, while the 50 basis point cut was favored due to concerns over idle capacity and the need for stronger support for consumption and investment [5]. - The decision to cut by 50 basis points was made to ensure medium-term inflation stability around the 2% target [5]. Economic Outlook - The Monetary Policy Committee expects inflation to approach the target midpoint by mid-2025, with overall inflation projected to reach 3.0% by Q3 2025 [6]. - The committee noted that global inflation is expected to decline, particularly in Asia, while the impact of tariffs on New Zealand's import and export prices remains limited [7]. - The current economic activity in New Zealand is relatively weak compared to other economies, contributing to a depreciation of the NZD [7].

Market Performance - The three major U.S. stock indices opened high but closed lower, with the Dow Jones down 0.2% at 46,602.98 points, the S&P 500 down 0.38% at 6,714.59 points, and the Nasdaq down 0.67% at 22,788.36 points [1] - Notable declines included Nike dropping over 3%, Seaford down more than 2%, and Tesla falling over 4% [1] Company Updates - Tesla has launched the base versions of its Model 3 sedan and Model Y SUV, priced at $36,990 and $39,990 respectively, with an estimated range of 321 miles (approximately 516 kilometers) on a full charge [1] - The new "standard" models have reduced features compared to higher-end versions and do not include Tesla's basic Autopilot system [1] Chinese Stocks - Chinese concept stocks experienced a general decline, with the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index down 2.24% [1] - Specific declines included Pony.ai down nearly 8%, Century Internet down over 6%, and Qihoo 360 down over 6% [1] Gold Market - Gold prices opened higher, with COMEX gold closing above $4,000 [2] - The ongoing U.S. government shutdown continues to impact market sentiment, despite some progress reported by President Trump [2] Federal Reserve Commentary - Federal Reserve Governor Milan advocates for continued interest rate cuts to address risks of overly tight policies [3] - Milan believes there is no significant conflict between achieving "maximum employment" and "price stability," and he is optimistic about inflation prospects [3]

美联储米兰：债券市场的平静表明市场支持降息。 来源：滚动播报 ...

Group 1: Market Overview - The market is currently experiencing a government shutdown, which has implications for economic data and decision-making [2][4] - There are signs of a cooling labor market, which may lead to expectations for rate cuts [3][4] Group 2: IBM - IBM is highlighted as a strong investment due to its focus on AI and enterprise architecture, particularly following its partnership with Anthropic [6][7] - The company has multiple revenue streams, including AI and tokenization, positioning it well for an "efficiency rally" [8][9] - IBM's stock has seen significant upward movement, with a more than 30% increase over the past year [17] Group 3: PayPal - PayPal is recognized for its diverse revenue streams and its recent entry into the buy now pay later market, offering 5% back to customers [18][28] - The company is also focusing on stable coins, which could benefit from a favorable regulatory environment [19][20] - PayPal's stock is currently viewed as neutral in the short term but bullish in the long term, with technical indicators suggesting potential upward movement [21][27] Group 4: Netflix - Netflix is identified as a growth opportunity, particularly with its expansion into ad-supported content and live events [30][31] - The stock has shown a 70% increase over the past year, indicating strong performance [40] - Technical analysis suggests a potential breakout above key resistance levels, although the RSI has not yet confirmed a bullish trend [35][39]

2025年10月3日这天，华盛顿的空气里带着点闷热的躁动——不是天气，是气氛，有点像夜里被蚊子盯了却不知身在何处的那种不安，交易员们的手指在键 盘上敲得劈啪作响，新闻推送弹了一波又一波，盯盘的、吃瓜的、分析的、装作淡定的，谁都知道今天要出点什么事。 换个角度看，米兰想快点完成降息，其他人却觉得这样搞会出事——担心金融市场被宠坏，房贷利率虽说没松，但股市一旦被"喂食"太猛，谁知道会不会又 飙一波。上一次这么激进的降息，还是金融危机那阵子，谁都记得后果。有人说过，历史是个蹩脚的老师，总在不合时宜的时候提醒你教训。 这天还有个小插曲，副主席杰斐逊也出来说话了，地点在费城，不是什么大会，是在大学里随意聊两句。他说得很直白：就业市场现在有点弱，央行不帮一 把，怕是要有人掉队。可他又不敢拍板要不要再降息，反正市场听完都说一句：稳健，没毛病，就是不惊喜。会议决定降25bp，他说是平衡，也是无奈。 你要说数据支撑什么决策，偏偏九月的就业报告还因为政府停摆没出齐，杰斐逊嘴上说"不理想"，其实心里估计也急着等数据落地。可现实就是这么乱，有 时候政策不是靠数据说了算，而是靠谁能把话说得更有道理，谁能让市场信了你的"故事"。 朋友问 ...

Core Insights - Increasing number of homebuyers in Melbourne and Sydney's outer suburbs are facing mortgage repayment difficulties, while homeowners in affluent areas experience significantly less pressure [1] Group 1: Mortgage Arrears Data - As of July, Australia's overall prime mortgage arrears rate is 0.84%, slightly down from 0.88% in June and 0.97% in March, indicating a relatively low level [3] - New South Wales (0.99%), Australian Capital Territory (1%), and Victoria (0.96%) have arrears rates above the national average, while Western Australia (0.8%), Queensland (0.54%), and South Australia (0.63%) perform better [3] - The postcode 3805 in Melbourne's southeast has a mortgage arrears rate of 2.79%, significantly higher than the national average, with other high-risk areas including Cranbourne, Pakenham, Point Cook, and Craigieburn [3][4] Group 2: Economic Commentary - Current interest rate cuts are helping to alleviate household pressure, but the effects typically take several months to manifest [5] - The mortgage arrears issue has shifted from resource-dependent regions in Western Australia and Queensland to New South Wales and Victoria, particularly in suburban "mortgage belt" areas where younger, lower-income buyers face higher loan-to-income ratios [7] - If interest rates rise again, these areas may struggle more due to lower resilience to financial pressure [8] Group 3: Housing Market Dynamics - Lower interest rates not only reduce repayment burdens but also support a rebound in property prices in Melbourne and Sydney, providing homeowners with more options for refinancing or selling [10] - The communities listed as "mortgage belts" are experiencing the highest cost-of-living pressures, with wealthier residents having more disposable income and flexibility compared to those in outer suburbs [11][12] - High unemployment rates in Victoria and increased local taxes further strain homebuyers, leading to a surge in property listings before the end of last year, although the situation has stabilized since then [15]

Market Performance - On October 3, U.S. stock indices closed mixed, with the Dow Jones and S&P 500 recording six consecutive daily gains, reaching new historical highs. The Dow rose by 0.51% to 46,758.28 points, and the S&P 500 increased by 0.01% to 6,715.79 points, both setting new closing records. The Nasdaq Composite fell by 0.28% to 22,780.51 points [1]. - For the week, the Dow gained 1.1%, the Nasdaq rose by 1.32%, and the S&P 500 increased by 1.09% [2]. Sector Performance - Popular technology stocks mostly declined, with AMD down nearly 3%, Meta down over 2%, and Tesla down over 1%. In contrast, Apple rose by 0.35%, reaching a historical high. The weight loss drug concept and cryptocurrency mining companies saw significant gains, with Coinbase and Eli Lilly rising over 2%, and Novo Nordisk and Pfizer increasing over 1% [2]. - The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index fell by 1.15% for the week, with many popular Chinese stocks declining, including a drop of over 4% for Global Data and nearly 4% for Li Auto. However, Baidu saw an increase of over 1% [2]. Commodity Market - On October 3, U.S. oil futures rose by 0.35% to $60.69 per barrel, while Brent crude oil futures increased by 0.42% to $64.38 per barrel. However, both contracts experienced weekly declines of 7.65% and 6.99%, respectively. Analysts from JPMorgan indicated that the oil market is moving towards a significant oversupply [3]. Economic Data and Government Shutdown - Due to the U.S. federal government shutdown, the Labor Statistics Bureau was unable to release the monthly employment data report as scheduled. This shutdown affects various critical statistical data releases, including the Consumer Price Index, which is set to be published in mid-October [4]. - Economic analysts believe that the current economic situation in the U.S. is complex, characterized by weak employment and persistent inflation. The inability to release important data will hinder the Federal Reserve's assessment of whether economic stimulus is necessary [4]. Federal Reserve Policy - Federal Reserve Governor Stephen Milan called for a more aggressive rate cut, suggesting that if policies deviate from the intended path, adjustments should be made quickly. He believes the current policy is more restrictive to growth and requires a looser monetary environment [6]. - Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Philip Jefferson reiterated that without supportive monetary policy, the U.S. job market may face pressure. He noted that inflation remains above the 2% target, while signs of weakening in the job market are evident [7].