隔夜，现货黄金从前一交易日的暴跌中反弹，一度重回4400美元关口，但美盘持续回吐日内涨幅，最终收涨0.16%，报4338.89美元。纵观全年， 黄金价格已累计上涨66%，有望成为自1979年以来表现最为亮眼的一年。今日欧市盘中，黄金小幅下跌，目前在4316美元附近徘徊。 现货白银在经历了五年多来最大的单日跌幅后收复了大部分失地，盘中触及78美元关口，最终收涨5.73%，报76.27美元。 美联储分歧严重！ 隔夜，美股三大指数连续第三个交易日微幅收跌，截至收盘，标准普尔500指数下跌0.14%，纳斯达克综合指数下跌0.24%，道琼斯工业平均指数 下跌0.20%。 消息面上，美联储公布了2025年最后一份会议纪要，12月会议纪要显示，FOMC在12月会议上同意降息，但官员们分歧严重。 还有值得一提的是，特朗普和美联储主席鲍威尔的紧张关系再度升级。 特朗普周一表示，他心里已经有下一任美联储主席的人选，但并不急于宣布；他还暗示自己可能会解雇现任主席鲍威尔。 分析师称："市场并没有把新年出现'解雇美联储主席'这种情形计入定价。但只要政策基调还能稍微偏鸽，不去讨论往相反方向转，市场大概率能 消化这些噪音。" 关于美股后市 ...

Group 1 - The current spot gold price has surpassed $4,350, trading around $4,331.00 per ounce, showing bullish momentum supported by the key level of $4,350, despite being below the 50-day EMA, which limits strong short-term rebounds [1] - The Federal Reserve's FOMC meeting minutes indicate that most officials believe further rate cuts are appropriate as long as inflation declines over time, although there is disagreement on timing and magnitude [1] - The CME Group has raised margin requirements for gold, silver, and other metals, requiring traders to provide more cash to prevent defaults on contract settlements [1] Group 2 - Traders are anticipating the release of the U.S. initial jobless claims report, with economists predicting a slight increase to 220,000 claims for the week ending December 27, up from 214,000 the previous week [2] - Technically, gold prices have shown strong upward movement this month but are experiencing a notable pullback at the month-end, indicating potential for a larger correction towards the $4,000-$3,900 range or lower [2] - The bullish outlook for precious metals remains intact, with prices above the 100-day EMA and an expanding Bollinger Band, suggesting upward momentum [2] Group 3 - Initial support for gold is seen in the $4,305-$4,300 range, representing the low from December 29 and a key psychological level, with stronger corrections potentially dragging prices down to the December 16 low of $4,271 [3]

桑坦德美国资本市场首席美国经济学家斯蒂芬.斯坦利表示，在意见严重分歧的委员会中，降息投票结 果显示出主席杰罗姆.鲍威尔的持续影响力。他在给客户的报告中写道："委员会本可以轻易地选择任何 一方，而联邦公开市场委员会最终决定放松政策，这清楚表明鲍威尔主席推动了降息。" 今日周三(12月31日)亚盘时段，伦敦银目前交投于75.05一线下方，今日开盘于76.23美元/盎司，截至发 稿，伦敦银暂报73.82美元/盎司，下跌3.10%，最高触及76.40美元/盎司，最低下探73.63美元/盎司，目 前来看，伦敦银盘内短线偏向看跌走势。 【要闻速递】 【最新伦敦银行情解析】 伦敦银在回落到70.5后，周二又上涨至78，在73支撑做多看涨到78，80，暂时是震荡走势，如果是短线 看到，如果是中长线看破78，再看80高点。今天维持看涨思路不变，继续74支撑看涨到78，80。 美联储官员在12月初的会议上以9比3的投票结果，连续第三次将基准利率下调25个基点，降至3.5%至 3.75%的区间。理事斯蒂芬.米拉恩投票反对这一行动，主张进行50个基点的更大幅度降息，而芝加哥联 储主席奥斯坦.古尔斯比和堪萨斯城联储主席杰夫.施密德则反 ...

受到隔夜市场波动影响，12月30日黄金基金ETF（518800）跌2.05%。虽然有观点认为贵金属短期 已经超买，但从中长期来看，支撑金价的降息、去美元化、地缘政治等因素依然坚实。作为资产配置的 一部分，在回调后可能是较好的布局时点。 近期，贵金属价格波动比较剧烈，金价回调一定程度上受到银价溢出效应的影响。在周一夜盘（美 国交易时间），白银现货一度突破84美元/盎司，比上周的收盘价上涨近10%，使得今年以来的涨幅创 下1951年来的记录，但随后快速下跌10%以上。黄金、铂金等贵金属价格也随之回调。 导致这一结果的原因包括但不限于：（1）海外流传中国作为世界第三大白银生产国，可能限制白 银出口，马斯克在X平台发文称"这不是好事，白银在许多工业流程中都是必须的"。这促进了银价早期 的上涨。（2）芝商所将白银期货的保证金上调25%，以应对近期的波动，这可能促使杠杆交易者不得 不部分平仓以符合保证金要求。（3）临近年底，跟踪彭博和标普商品指数的基金将开始调仓，这涉及 数千亿美元的规模，投资者将大概率卖出今年涨幅较多的黄金和白银，以匹配新的权重，一些非指数基 金持有人可能在指数调整前"抢跑"提前卖出。据悉，指数调整将于 ...

在成交量极度萎缩的背景下，美联储最新公布的12月会议纪要并未给市场带来方向，反而揭示了决策层内部巨大的意见裂痕。 由于缺乏新的利好驱动，加之流动性偏紧，周二标普500、纳指、道指连续三个交易日收跌，标普500指数跌幅0.14%；道指跌幅0.20%；纳指收跌幅 0.24%。 | Dow Jones | S&P 500 | Nasdaq | | --- | --- | --- | | 48,367.06 | 6,896.24 | 23,419.08 | | (-94.87) | (-9.50) | (-55.27) | | -0.20% @ | -0.14% C | -0.24% @ | 目前，市场核心逻辑正在发生以下结构性转变： 在科技股方面，Meta成为市场关注点。 Meta收购AI初创公司Manus。在科技股集体走弱的环境下，Meta通过收购Manus展示了其在AI代理领域的扩张野心。 美股投资网分析认为，此举旨在将高级AI能力整合进Facebook和Instagram。这种清晰的业务增长点，在震荡市中为科技板块提供了一定的情绪支撑。 从盘面反馈看，周一暴跌后的贵金属虽有短线反弹，但难以扭转整体谨慎的情绪。 ...

Group 1: U.S. Stock Market - Retail investors are on vacation, leading to low trading volumes in the U.S. stock market as the year-end approaches [1] - The Federal Reserve's meeting minutes indicate increasing internal disagreements on future interest rate cuts, suggesting a cautious approach in early next year [1] - Major U.S. stock indices closed lower, with the Dow Jones down 0.20%, S&P 500 down 0.14%, and Nasdaq down 0.24% [1] Group 2: Company News - Meta, the parent company of Facebook, announced the acquisition of AI startup Manus, founded by a Chinese team, which is expected to accelerate the integration of advanced AI technology into Facebook and Instagram [1] - Following the announcement, Meta's stock rose by 1.1%, leading gains among seven major tech companies in the U.S. [1] Group 3: Precious Metals Market - After a significant sell-off, international precious metal prices rebounded due to technical buying by investors [4] - Analysts remain optimistic about the outlook for precious metals, anticipating increased investment demand driven by the Fed's potential interest rate cuts and the global push for green industries [4] - Gold prices rose to over $4,400 per ounce, silver prices surged over 10%, and platinum prices closed above $2,200 per ounce [4] Group 4: Commodity Prices - As of the close, gold futures for February delivery were at $4,386.3 per ounce, up 0.98%; silver futures for March delivery were at $77.919 per ounce, up 10.59%; and platinum futures for February delivery were at $2,240.8 per ounce, up 5.69% [6] - Analysts warn of potential volatility in precious metal prices due to upcoming adjustments in commodity index weights, which may lead to selling pressure from passive funds [6] Group 5: European Stock Market - European stock indices collectively rose, driven by a rebound in precious metal prices and buying interest in defense and military stocks [8] - The UK stock market increased by 0.75%, France by 0.69%, and Germany by 0.57%, with the German DAX index showing a 23.01% increase for the year, the largest annual gain since 2019 [8] Group 6: Oil Market - U.S. commercial crude oil inventories increased by 405,000 barrels, contrary to market expectations of a significant decrease, indicating weak oil consumption demand [10] - As of the close, light crude oil futures for February delivery were at $57.95 per barrel, down 0.22%, and Brent crude futures for February delivery were at $61.92 per barrel, down 0.03% [10]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Gold: Inflation is moderately declining [2]. - Silver: Undergoing high - level adjustment [2]. - Copper: The strengthening of LME spot prices supports the price [2]. - Zinc: Showing a tendency of oscillating upward [2]. - Lead: Inventory increase is pressuring the price [2]. - Tin: Supply is facing new disturbances [2]. - Aluminum: Exhibiting a strong - side oscillation [2]. - Alumina: Continuing to bottom - out [2]. - Cast aluminum alloy: Following the trend of electrolytic aluminum [2]. - Nickel: There is a game between capital and industrial forces, and attention should be paid to the emergence of structural opportunities [2]. - Stainless steel: The fundamentals restrict its elasticity, but attention should be paid to the policy risks in Indonesia [2]. Summary of Each Section 1. Gold and Silver Fundamental Data - **Price**: Shanghai Gold 2602 closed at 984.84 with a daily decline of 2.22%; Comex Gold 2602 closed at 4352.30 with a daily increase of 0.05%. Shanghai Silver 2602 closed at 18140 with a daily decline of 0.35%; Comex Silver 2602 closed at 76.015 with a daily increase of 6.11% [4]. - **Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of Shanghai Gold 2602 was 391,541, an increase of 46,319 from the previous day, and the open interest was 144,462, a decrease of 21,562. The trading volume of Shanghai Silver 2602 was 1,127,485, a decrease of 315,320, and the open interest was 195,074, a decrease of 30,842 [4]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of Shanghai Gold was 97,704 kg, unchanged from the previous day; the inventory of Comex Gold (in troy ounces) was 36,223,374, an increase of 32,119. The inventory of Shanghai Silver was 755,754 kg, a decrease of 40,985 [4]. - **Spread**: The spread between Gold T + D and AU2602 was - 2.64, unchanged from the previous day; the spread between Silver T + D and AG2602 was - 592, a decrease of 442 from the previous day [4]. News - Most Fed officials expect it to be appropriate to continue cutting interest rates after December, while some advocate keeping rates unchanged for "some time" [4]. - Reportedly, OPEC + is likely to maintain the suspension of the production - increase plan this week due to significant supply - surplus pressure [6]. - China has advanced the plan of issuing the first batch of 625 billion yuan of ultra - long - term special treasury bonds in 2026 to support consumer goods trade - in programs. The 2026 national subsidy plan has been released, with new smart products added, home decoration and electric bicycles removed, and subsidy standards for home appliances and cars adjusted [6]. - Starting next year, individuals selling homes purchased over two years ago will be exempt from value - added tax [6]. - The Central Rural Work Conference emphasized strengthening research on key core agricultural technologies and efficient transformation and application of scientific and technological achievements, and developing new high - quality agricultural productivity according to local conditions [6]. - Li Qiang proposed to refine taxpayers and the scope of taxation and determine calculation methods for taxable amounts in different situations [6]. Trend Strength - Gold trend strength: 0; Silver trend strength: 0 [6] 2. Copper Fundamental Data - **Price**: The Shanghai copper main contract closed at 98,090 with a daily decline of 0.78%, and the night - session closing price was 99,220 with a rise of 1.15%. The LME copper 3M electronic disk closed at 12,674 with a daily increase of 4.02% [7]. - **Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the Shanghai copper index was 832,280, a decrease of 142,367 from the previous day, and the open interest was 625,625, a decrease of 17,019. The trading volume of the LME copper 3M electronic disk was 30,309, a decrease of 34,327, and the open interest was 342,000, an increase of 1,036 [7]. - **Inventory**: The Shanghai copper inventory was 71,738 tons, an increase of 5,860 tons; the LME copper inventory was 149,475 tons, a decrease of 5,100 tons, and the cancelled warrant ratio was 26.21%, a decrease of 2.31% [7]. - **Spread**: The LME copper cash - to - 3M spread was 31.35, an increase of 11.66 from the previous day; the spot - to - near - month futures spread of Shanghai copper was - 240, an increase of 90 [7]. News - Most Fed officials expect it to be appropriate to continue cutting interest rates after December, and most participants believe that if inflation declines as expected, further rate cuts may be appropriate [7]. - The 2026 national subsidy plan has been released, with new smart products added, home decoration and electric bicycles removed, and subsidy standards for home appliances and cars adjusted. The first batch of 625 billion yuan of ultra - long - term special treasury bonds in 2026 to support consumer goods trade - in programs has been advanced [7]. - The Peruvian Congress approved a one - year extension of the temporary licenses for small - scale miners until the end of 2026 [7]. - From January to November 2025, Kazakhstan's refined copper production increased by 2.5% year - on - year to 431,998 tons [9]. - In November 2025, China's imports of copper ore and concentrates were 2.53 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.05% and a year - on - year increase of 13.13% [9]. - The Chilean government initiated the preliminary mediation process for the labor contract negotiation of the Mantoverde copper - gold mine. Workers will prepare for a strike if the negotiation fails [9]. - On December 29, the main project construction and core equipment installation of the second - phase expansion project of the Julong Copper Mine were completed and successfully test - run, a key step before production [9]. Trend Strength - Copper trend strength: 1 [9] 3. Zinc Fundamental Data - **Price**: The Shanghai zinc main contract closed at 23,380 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 0.54%, and the LME zinc 3M electronic disk closed at 3,083.5 US dollars/ton with a daily decline of 0.10% [10]. - **Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the Shanghai zinc main contract was 148,502 lots, a decrease of 94,405 lots; the open interest was 93,470 lots, a decrease of 217 lots. The trading volume of the LME zinc was 13,418 lots, an increase of 7,474 lots, and the open interest was 232,259 lots, an increase of 4,129 lots [10]. - **Spread and Inventory**: The Shanghai 0 zinc premium was 120 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton; the LME CASH - 3M spread was - 30 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 1.74 US dollars/ton. The Shanghai zinc futures inventory was 42,387 tons, an increase of 1,403 tons; the LME zinc inventory was 106,325 tons, a decrease of 225 tons [10]. News - The 2026 national subsidy plan has new smart products added, home decoration and electric bicycles removed, and subsidy standards for home appliances and cars adjusted. The subsidy for new cars is 12% or 10% of the car price, with the upper limit remaining the same as in 2025. The subsidy range for home appliances has been reduced, and the subsidy ratio for first - grade energy - efficient home appliances has decreased from 20% to 15%, with the maximum subsidy per appliance dropping from 2,000 yuan to 1,500 yuan [11]. - The first batch of 625 billion yuan of ultra - long - term special treasury bonds in 2026 to support consumer goods trade - in programs has been advanced [11]. Trend Strength - Zinc trend strength: 1 [13] 4. Lead Fundamental Data - **Price**: The Shanghai lead main contract closed at 17,505 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 0.09%, and the LME lead 3M electronic disk closed at 2,010.5 US dollars/ton with a daily increase of 0.55% [14]. - **Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the Shanghai lead main contract was 69,782 lots, a decrease of 14,987 lots; the open interest was 53,891 lots, a decrease of 584 lots. The trading volume of the LME lead was 9,284 lots, an increase of 5,478 lots, and the open interest was 178,618 lots, an increase of 644 lots [14]. - **Spread and Inventory**: The Shanghai 1 lead premium was 0 yuan/ton, an increase of 25 yuan/ton; the LME CASH - 3M spread was - 43.7 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 5.89 US dollars/ton. The Shanghai lead futures inventory was 13,111 tons, an increase of 1,528 tons; the LME lead inventory was 245,275 tons, an increase of 1,000 tons [14]. News - Most Fed officials expect it to be appropriate to continue cutting interest rates after December, and most participants believe that if inflation declines as expected, further rate cuts may be appropriate [15]. - The 2026 national subsidy plan has been released, with new smart products added, home decoration and electric bicycles removed, and subsidy standards for home appliances and cars adjusted. The first batch of 625 billion yuan of ultra - long - term special treasury bonds in 2026 to support consumer goods trade - in programs has been advanced [15]. Trend Strength - Lead trend strength: 0 [15] 5. Tin Fundamental Data - **Price**: The Shanghai tin main contract closed at 326,330 yuan/ton with a daily decline of 2.47%, and the LME tin 3M electronic disk closed at 42,195 US dollars/ton with a daily increase of 5.46% [17]. - **Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the Shanghai tin main contract was 441,257 lots, a decrease of 12,067 lots, and the open interest was 43,769 lots, a decrease of 6,392 lots. The trading volume of the LME tin 3M electronic disk was 180 lots, a decrease of 9 lots, and the open interest was 13,988 lots, an increase of 53 lots [17]. - **Inventory and Spread**: The Shanghai tin inventory was 7,772 tons, a decrease of 133 tons; the LME tin inventory was 5,330 tons, an increase of 185 tons, and the cancelled warrant ratio was 6.57%, a decrease of 0.38%. The SMM 1 tin ingot price was 339,800 yuan/ton, a decrease of 800 yuan/ton [17]. News - Similar to the news in the gold and silver section, including Fed rate - cut expectations, OPEC + production - plan news, China's subsidy and bond - issuance news, etc. [18] Trend Strength - Tin trend strength: 1 [19] 6. Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum Alloy Fundamental Data - **Aluminum**: The Shanghai aluminum main contract closed at 22,565 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan/ton. The LME aluminum 3M closed at 2,987 US dollars/ton, an increase of 38 US dollars/ton. The Shanghai aluminum main - contract trading volume was 369,628 lots, a decrease of 248,997 lots, and the open interest was 267,707 lots, a decrease of 21,548 lots [20]. - **Alumina**: The Shanghai alumina main contract closed at 2,751 yuan/ton, unchanged. The trading volume was 699,429 lots, a decrease of 609,434 lots, and the open interest was 404,205 lots, an increase of 7,530 lots [20]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: The aluminum alloy main contract closed at 21,475 yuan/ton, a decrease of 115 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 9,685 lots, an increase of 546 lots, and the open interest was 15,866 lots, an increase of 9,810 lots [20]. News - Starting next year, individuals selling homes purchased over two years ago will be exempt from value - added tax [22]. - Most Fed officials expect it to be appropriate to continue cutting interest rates after December, and most participants believe that if inflation declines as expected, further rate cuts may be appropriate [22]. Trend Strength - Aluminum trend strength: 1; Alumina trend strength: 0; Aluminum alloy trend strength: 1 [22] 7. Nickel and Stainless Steel Fundamental Data - **Price**: The Shanghai nickel main contract closed at 132,390 yuan/ton, an increase of 6,680 yuan/ton; the stainless - steel main contract closed at 13,090 yuan/ton, an increase of 180 yuan/ton [24]. - **Volume**: The trading volume of the Shanghai nickel main contract was 1,000,602 lots, an increase of 215,362 lots; the trading volume of the stainless - steel main contract was 298,305 lots, an increase of 33,281 lots [24]. - **Industry - Chain Data**: The price of 1 imported nickel was 129,300 yuan/ton, an increase of 700 yuan/ton; the price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron (ex - factory price) was 913 yuan/ton, an increase of 2 yuan/ton [24]. News - In September, the Indonesian Forestry Working Group took over more than 148 hectares of the PT Weda Bay Nickel mining area, which is expected to affect nickel production by about 600 metal tons per month [24]. - China has suspended an unofficial subsidy for imported copper and nickel from Russia [25]. - The Indonesian government has sanctioned 190 mining companies for failing to provide claim and refund guarantees [25]. - The Indonesian Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources issued a ministerial order regarding the RKAB approval procedure for mines in 2026 [26]. - Trump claimed to impose an additional 100% tariff on China and implement export controls on "all key software" starting from November 1 [26]. - The Indonesian government has suspended the issuance of new smelting licenses for certain nickel products [27]. - Safety inspections in Indonesian industrial parks have affected the production of some nickel wet - process projects, with an expected impact of about 6,000 nickel metal tons in December [27]. - In November, New York Fed President John Williams and Fed Governor Stephen Miran made dovish remarks, increasing the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut in December [27]. - China will implement export - license management for some steel products starting from January 1, 2026 [27]. - The Indonesian government plans to revise the benchmark - price formula for nickel ore products in early 2026 and will levy royalties on cobalt as an independent commodity [27]. - The Indonesian government plans to significantly reduce the nickel - ore production target in 2026 from 379 million tons to 250 million tons [28]. - Fifty Indonesian nickel - mining enterprises face potential fines of about 80.2 trillion Indonesian rupiah for illegal occupation of forest land [28]. Trend Strength - Nickel trend strength: 0; Stainless - steel trend strength: 0 [29]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's December meeting minutes reveal significant divisions among policymakers regarding whether inflation or unemployment poses a greater risk to the U.S. economy [1] Group 1: Federal Reserve Policy Decisions - The Federal Reserve lowered the federal funds rate target range to 3.50%-3.75% during its third rate cut of the year, with only 3 out of 12 policymakers voting against the decision [1] - Chairman Powell indicated that the current rate is sufficient to prevent severe deterioration in the labor market while still applying pressure on inflation [1] - Most officials believe that the risks to the labor market are skewed to the downside, while inflation risks are viewed as skewed to the upside [1] Group 2: Future Rate Expectations - The dot plot indicates that policymakers still expect one rate cut next year, with inflation projected to slow to around 2.4% by the end of the year [1] - According to CME's "FedWatch," the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in January is 14.9%, while the probability of maintaining the current rate is 85.1% [3] - By March, the cumulative probability of a 25 basis point cut rises to 45.2%, with a 48.3% chance of no change and a 6.5% chance of a 50 basis point cut [3] Group 3: Leadership Changes - President Trump is expected to announce his choice for the next Federal Reserve Chair in January, with former Fed Governor Warsh and NEC Director Hassett as top candidates [3] - Warsh advocates for maintaining the Fed's policy independence and supports reforms such as balance sheet reduction and deeper rate cuts [4] - Hassett favors monetary easing to stimulate growth and is inclined towards aggressive rate cuts if appointed [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating The document does not provide an overall industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - The policy of exempting VAT on the sale of homes held for over 2 years by individuals starting from 2026 will promote the activity of the second - hand housing market and drive the linkage effect between first - hand and second - hand housing [7][8]. - For copper, although price increases may suppress domestic demand, the long - term driving logic remains unchanged, and short - term adjustments provide opportunities for long - term buying [9][10]. - Glass is expected to be strong in the short - term and fluctuate in the medium - term [11]. - For live pigs, the pressure on supply will be concentrated in January, and there are opportunities to short near - month contracts at high prices [12]. Summary by Related Catalogs Real Estate - **Policy Impact**: Starting from January 1, 2026, individuals selling homes held for over 2 years will be exempt from VAT, while those held for less than 2 years will be taxed at a 3% levy rate. This policy will reduce the cost of housing sales, stimulate housing consumption, and promote the activity of the second - hand housing market [7][8]. Metals Copper - **Supply - side**: The 2026 copper concentrate long - term benchmark price TC is set at $0/ton, and policies may lead to structural changes in the smelting industry [9]. - **Demand - side**: The long - term consumption recovery expectation is strong, especially driven by emerging industries such as computing power centers. However, high prices may suppress domestic demand [9][10]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - term price adjustments are good entry points for long - term buying [10]. Glass - **Short - term Drivers**: Environmental protection issues in Hubei may lead to production cuts, the 01 contract's position - to - warrant ratio is unfavorable to shorts, and low prices in Hebei have stimulated market stocking [11]. - **Medium - term Outlook**: The market may fluctuate due to high inventory levels and weakening basis [11]. Live Pigs - **Market Situation**: In late December, there was a structural shortage of pigs, but the overall inventory change was small. The price increase in late December led to re - stocking, and the pressure will be postponed to January [12]. - **Supply and Demand in January**: The group's January sales plan may be slightly reduced, but the need to avoid selling during the Spring Festival will increase supply pressure. Demand in January may not increase significantly, and prices are expected to rise weakly [12]. Other Metals - **Gold**: Inflation is moderately falling [14]. - **Silver**: It is in a high - level adjustment [14]. - **Zinc**: It shows a fluctuating and strengthening trend [14]. - **Lead**: Inventory increases are pressuring prices [14]. - **Tin**: Supply has been disrupted again [14]. - **Aluminum**: It shows a strengthening and fluctuating trend [14]. - **Alumina**: It continues to be at the bottom [14]. - **Cast aluminum alloy**: It follows the trend of electrolytic aluminum [14]. - **Nickel**: There is a game between capital and industrial forces, and attention should be paid to the emergence of structural opportunities [14]. - **Stainless steel**: The fundamentals limit its elasticity, and attention should be paid to Indonesian policy risks [14]. Chemicals - **PX, PTA**: They are in a high - level fluctuating market. PX supply is increasing while demand is decreasing, and PTA supply is recovering while downstream profits are being squeezed [69][72][73]. - **MEG**: The upside space is limited, and it still faces medium - term pressure. Although there are expectations of load reduction, the inventory accumulation pattern is difficult to change [69][74]. - **Rubber**: It shows a wide - range fluctuation [75]. - **Synthetic rubber**: It is falling from a high level [78]. - **LLDPE**: The upstream inventory is transferred, and the basis is stable [81]. - **PP**: Multiple PDH units are planned to be overhauled in January, and the market is stabilizing and fluctuating [84]. - **Caustic soda**: Attention should be paid to the delivery pressure in January. The market is characterized by high production and high inventory [87][89]. - **Paper pulp**: It shows a fluctuating and strengthening trend [93]. - **Methanol**: It is strong in the short - term [102]. - **Urea**: The fluctuation center is moving up [107]. - **Styrene**: It shows short - term fluctuations [111]. - **Soda ash**: The spot market has little change [116]. - **LPG**: The CP in January is at a high level, and the night - session price has made up for the increase [118]. - **Propylene**: The spot supply and demand are tightening, and there is an expectation of a stop - falling and rebound [118]. - **PVC**: It shows a weak and fluctuating trend. The high - production and high - inventory structure is difficult to change in the short - term [126][128]. Energy - **Fuel oil**: It is in a narrow - range adjustment and may remain strong in the short - term [129]. - **Low - sulfur fuel oil**: The night - session price has fallen, and the spot price difference between high - and low - sulfur fuels is temporarily stable [129]. Shipping - **Container Freight Index (European Line)**: It is fluctuating at a high level. The key issues for the 2602 contract are the height of freight rates, the inflection point time, and the rate of price decline. For the 2604 contract, shorting at high prices has a relatively high probability of winning [131][141][142][143]. Agricultural Products - **Short - fiber, Bottle - chip**: They are fluctuating at a high level [145]. - **Offset - printing paper**: It is advisable to wait and see [148]. - **Pure benzene**: It shows short - term fluctuations [153]. - **Palm oil**: It has a short - term rebound, but the driving force is weak [156]. - **Soybean oil**: It moves within a range, and attention should be paid to the month - spread opportunities [156]. - **Soybean meal**: It fluctuates, and holiday risks should be avoided [163]. - **Soybean**: It is advisable to be cautious and wait and see before the festival [164]. - **Corn**: Attention should be paid to the spot market [167]. - **Sugar**: It is running weakly [171]. - **Cotton**: It maintains a fluctuating and strengthening trend [176]. - **Eggs**: They show short - term fluctuations [181]. - **Live pigs**: Contradictions continue to accumulate, and the price is strong before the festival [184]. - **Peanuts**: Positions are being reduced before the festival [189].

【环球网财经综合报道】据美联储最新公布的12月9日至10日会议纪要显示，FOMC在12月会议上同意降息，但官员们 分歧严重。 《纽约邮报》发文称，美联储理事斯蒂芬·米兰诺夫投票支持更大幅度的半个百分点降息，而芝加哥联储主席奥斯坦· 古尔斯比和堪萨斯城联储主席杰夫·施密特投票反对降息，支持维持利率不变。19名投票者中，有6人建议基准利率到 2025年底应达到3.75%至4%。 报道还提到，美国最新公布GDP数据显示，美国经济实际年增长率达到4.3%，为两年来最快，但通胀仍然是个问题； 大多数联储官员希望，只要通胀继续降温，未来还将有更多降息。 美联储纪要也显示，如果通胀如预期般逐步下降，大多数官员认为进一步降息是合适的。委员们一致认为，将根据需 要开始购买短期国债，以持续保持充足的准备金供应，并同意取消对常备回购操作的总额限制。 受上述消息影响，美国三大股指小幅收跌，道指跌0.2%报48367.06点，标普500指数跌0.14%报6896.24点，纳指跌 0.24%报23419.08点。 热门股方面，IBM跌超1%，高盛集团跌近1%，领跌道指；万得美国科技七巨头指数跌0.07%，特斯拉跌超1%，脸书 涨逾1%。 ...