本文来自：华尔街见闻，作者：李笑寅、鲍奕龙，原文标题：《中美会谈联合声明发布，美股期货涨逾2%，黄金跳水，离岸人民币暴涨400点， 巴基斯坦股市涨9%》，题图来自：AI生成 中美贸易谈判达成重要共识推动短期乐观情绪，美股期货涨幅扩大，美元和人民币同时走强，离岸人民币跳涨百点。避险情绪显著消退，十年期 美债和黄金遭重挫。 5月12日周一，商务部发布中美日内瓦经贸会谈联合声明，美国将修改2025年4月2日第14257号行政令中规定的对中国商品（包括香港特别行政区 和澳门特别行政区商品）加征的从价关税，其中，24%的关税在初始的90天内暂停实施，同时保留按该行政令的规定对这些商品加征剩余10%的 关税。 股市： 债市： 汇市： 离岸人民币兑美元一度涨超400点，报7.1988。 大宗商品： 【15:03】 商务部发布中美日内瓦经贸会谈联合声明后，现货黄金5分钟内下跌约20美元/盎司，报3255.62美元/盎司，日内跌超2%。 纳斯达克100指数期货涨幅扩大至3%。 印度NIFTY 50指数大涨近3%，巴基斯坦KSE-30指数大涨超9%触发熔断，此前双方达成停火协议。 日经225股指高开后持续震荡走低，截至发稿，涨0 ...

有色金属日报 2025-5-12 五矿期货早报 | 有色金属 铜 有色金属小组 吴坤金 从业资格号：F3036210 交易咨询号：Z0015924 0755-23375135 wukj1@wkqh.cn 曾宇轲 从业资格号：F03121027 0755-23375139 zengyuke@wkqh.cn 张世骄 从业资格号：F03120988 0755-23375122 zhangsj3@wkqh.cn 王梓铧 从业资格号：F03130785 0755-23375132 wangzh7@wkqh.cn 刘显杰 从业资格号：F03130746 0755-23375125 liuxianjie@wkqh.cn 陈逸 国内黑色系商品延续弱势，铝价受影响走势偏弱，不过库存重新去化使得铝价短线企稳，昨日伦铝收 涨 1.18%至 2408 美元/吨，沪铝主力合约收至 19570 元/吨。昨日沪铝加权合约持仓量 58.3 万手， 环比增加 2.6 万手，盘面空头继续增仓，期货仓单 6.6 万吨，环比减少 0.3 万吨，总体维持偏低水 平。根据 SMM 统计，国内铝锭社会库存环比周二减少 1.6 万吨，至 62 万吨，铝棒库 ...

工业硅周报 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 021-68555105 li.t@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 huang.lei@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 gao.h@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 光伏需求下滑，工业硅震荡寻底 核心观点及策略 ⚫ 上周工业硅再度下探，主因中美贸易谈判充满不确定性， 光伏"5.31"前抢装潮临近尾声，工业品市场情绪相对低 迷。供应来看，新疆地区开工率继续回落，西南开工率保 持低位运行，内蒙和甘肃产量小幅回升，供应端整体承压 回落；从需求侧来看，多晶硅市场情绪十分悲观头部企业 暂停报价，硅片市场成交尚可但行情持续走弱，光伏电池 出现终端需求萎缩价格存在下探空间，组件分布式和集中 式倒挂现象持续，抢装期临近尾声新订单难以在5.31新规 实施前接入并网，4-5月光伏装机减速几成定局，工业硅 终端消费骤降令市场情绪难以好转，社会库存小幅降至 59.6，而广期所仓单库存仍接近7万手。 王 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Australian dollar (AUD) is experiencing upward momentum against the US dollar (USD) due to optimistic sentiments surrounding US-China trade negotiations, with the AUD/USD exchange rate rising to approximately 0.6420 [1] Group 1: Trade Negotiations - Substantial progress has been made in the high-level US-China economic talks, leading to important consensus and the establishment of a US-China economic consultation mechanism [1] - A joint statement regarding the outcomes of the talks is expected to be released on May 12 [1] Group 2: Economic Data and Market Sentiment - Traders are closely monitoring upcoming key economic data from Australia, including the Westpac Consumer Confidence Index and the National Australia Bank Business Conditions Index, which may provide new insights for the AUD [1] - Investors are also focused on forthcoming US data, such as consumer inflation figures and retail sales, to assess the initial impact of the trade dispute on the broader economy [1] Group 3: Technical Analysis - The AUD/USD exchange rate is trading around 0.6420, with technical analysis indicating a neutral bias as it remains below the ascending channel [1] - The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is above 50, suggesting that bullish momentum is still in play [1] Group 4: Future Projections - The AUD/USD may return to the ascending channel and retest the six-month high of 0.6515 reached on December 2, 2024, with a potential breakthrough supporting a rise towards the seven-month high of 0.6687 [2] - Initial support levels for the AUD/USD are at the nine-day exponential moving average of 0.6420 and the 50-day exponential moving average of 0.6345, with a drop below these levels potentially weakening the bullish outlook [2]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term, medium - term, and intraday views on rebar 2510 are shock, shock, and shock - biased upward respectively. It is recommended to pay attention to the pressure at the MA5 line, and the core logic is that market sentiment has warmed up and steel prices have stabilized in shock [2]. - The supply of rebar has contracted with a decline in production, but the demand has weakened more significantly, and the inventory has started to accumulate. The downstream industries have not improved, and the rebar demand is prone to seasonal weakening, which continues to drag down the fundamentals of rebar. However, the substantial progress in Sino - US trade negotiations has warmed up the market sentiment, and steel prices are expected to stabilize in shock in the short - term under the support of positive sentiment. Attention should be paid to the demand performance [3]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - For rebar 2510, the short - term view is shock, the medium - term view is shock, and the intraday view is shock - biased upward. The reference is to pay attention to the pressure at the MA5 line, and the core logic is that market sentiment has warmed up and steel prices have stabilized in shock. The calculation of price changes and the definitions of shock - biased upward/downward are also provided [2]. Market Driving Logic - The spot price of steel remained stable over the weekend. The supply - demand pattern of rebar has weakened, with a decline in production and more obvious weakening in demand, and inventory accumulation. The downstream industries have not improved, and the rebar demand is prone to seasonal weakening, which continues to drag down the fundamentals of rebar and put pressure on steel prices. The positive factor is the substantial progress in Sino - US trade negotiations, which has warmed up the market sentiment, and steel prices are expected to stabilize in shock in the short - term [3].

Group 1: US Stock Market Overview - The US stock market opened high but closed lower, with the Dow Jones down 0.29% and the S&P and Nasdaq remaining relatively unchanged. All three major indices showed a slight decline of less than one point this week [1] - There has been a significant redemption of funds from US ETFs, totaling $24.8 billion over the past four weeks, marking the largest scale in nearly two years. Hedge funds sold $1.5 billion in a week, while insurance companies and other institutions sold $2.7 billion, the second-highest weekly sell-off in history [1] - Institutional confidence is low, with many believing that the US economy is likely heading towards a recession. The Google search volume for "Is the US in a recession?" has reached its second-highest level ever, only behind the actual recession period [1] Group 2: Retail Investors and Corporate Buybacks - Retail investors have been net buyers for 21 consecutive weeks, setting a record for the longest buying streak in history, with purchases totaling a record $2 billion in the past four weeks [2] - Corporate buybacks were substantial, with $233.8 billion in buybacks in April, the second-highest amount recorded since 1984 [5] - The motivation behind corporate buybacks is to prevent their stock prices from falling too much and to signal confidence in future stock price increases [8] Group 3: Market Sentiment and Predictions - The current market sentiment is influenced by a long-standing bullish trend in the US stock market, which has created a loyal base of retail investors who tend to buy on dips [8] - Former President Trump has encouraged retail investors to buy stocks, stating "buy stocks now," which has raised concerns about potential market manipulation [10] - The S&P 500 is expected to face strong resistance around the 4800-4835 range, with a potential bear market if it falls below 5100. The optimal strategy is to trade within the 5100-5500 range, selling high and buying low [10] Group 4: US-China Trade Negotiations - Recent comments from Trump regarding US-China trade negotiations suggest a pressure tactic, with a target of 80% being mentioned, although a more realistic expectation is around 54% for the second phase of negotiations [12][13] - Economic data from both sides has not yet shown significant impacts, indicating that the urgency for negotiations may not be as strong as perceived. For instance, while US non-farm data remains resilient, China's exports to ASEAN countries increased by 21% despite tariffs [14]

可以说，我国选择瑞士中立国，而不是美国主场，和美国会谈，就是定调中美经贸谈判要在平等的基础上，以对等方式 会谈，中方定调不会有任何改变。随后，我外交部发言人特别强调一句，"此次会谈是应美方请求举行，中方坚决反对美 国滥用关税这一立场没有任何改变。"这说明美国才是中美关税大战中，真正坐不住的一方。以特朗普为首的美国政府为 什么坐不住呢？四个字：局势不利。中美关税博弈的结果，就是越来越多国家站在我国一边，相反美国有点众叛亲离的 味道。 对于中美间谈判全球渴望已久，更包括美国在内。国际货币基金组织、经合组织和世界银行的全球经济学家都预测，特 朗普的贸易战将对全球经济造成灾难性影响，预计美国将成为受打击最严重的经济体之一。许多美国经济学家和大型银 行预测，美国经济今年可能陷入衰退。当然，一次谈判肯定解决不了中美之间长久以来的问题。美国财长贝森特似乎也 很清楚，出发前他在接受福克斯新闻采访时表示，这次谈判将"与缓和局势有关，而不是与重大贸易协议有关"。 据人民日报报道，外交部发言人林剑表示，美方近期不断表示希望同中方进行谈判。这次的会谈是应美方请求举行的。 中方坚决反对美国滥施关税，这一立场没有任何变化。同时，我们也多 ...

Group 1 - The US dollar index fell by 0.3% to close at 100.338, indicating a decline against a basket of currencies, except for the Canadian dollar [1] - Analysts suggest that the worst phase of the trade and tariff war may be over, as the Trump administration appears to be reaching out to different countries [1] - The Canadian unemployment rate increased from 6.7% in March to 6.9% in April, which was higher than the market expectation of 6.8%, contributing to the decline of the Canadian dollar [1] Group 2 - The euro appreciated to 1.1259 USD from the previous day's 1.1225 USD, while the British pound rose to 1.3315 USD from 1.3251 USD [2] - The US dollar exchanged at 145.27 JPY, down from 145.88 JPY, and at 0.8311 CHF, slightly down from 0.8312 CHF [2] - The US dollar strengthened against the Canadian dollar, trading at 1.3930 CAD, up from 1.3928 CAD [2]

Group 1 - The central bank is expected to lower interest rates and reserve requirements, with potential actions anticipated between late May and June due to upcoming government bond maturities [1] - The recent U.S.-China trade discussions indicate a possible easing of tensions, which is viewed as a positive signal for the market [1] - The overall market sentiment remains optimistic despite some declines in major indices, with predictions for a favorable market trend in May [3][7] Group 2 - The Hong Kong stock market showed mixed results, with the Hang Seng Index rising by 0.40%, while trading volume decreased to 161.6 billion HKD [5] - The semiconductor sector experienced significant declines, with stocks like Hua Hong Semiconductor dropping over 12% [5] - A-shares faced a collective downturn, with over 4,000 stocks declining, yet the market is seen as undergoing a healthy adjustment with potential opportunities [5][7]

股指期货日报 2025年5月9日 王梦颖（Z0015429）、廖臣悦 (F03120676) 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1290号 缩量偏弱 市场回顾 股指日报 今日股指除上证50指数收涨外，其余均收跌。从资金面来看，两市成交额减少1013.68亿元。期指方面， IF、IC缩量下跌，IH缩量上涨，IM放量下跌。 重要资讯 1. 英国和美国就关税贸易协议条款达成一致，英国政府同意在进口美国食品和农业产品方面作出让步，以 换取美方降低对英国汽车出口的关税。 2. 中国4月出口（以美元计价）同比增长8.1%，前值增12.4%；进口降0.2%，前值降4.3%；贸易顺差 961.8亿美元；前值顺差1026.4亿美元。 核心观点 上午公布最新进出口数据，贸易数据超预期，数据公布后指数均有所反弹。由于市场逐渐消化近期政策利 好，且关税对国内经济的影响需要更多经济数据验证，因此今日指数整体缩量调整，红利指数领涨，市场 情绪趋于谨慎。随着中美关税态度趋于缓和，避险情绪降温，叠加国家对稳市场的决心下预计政策还有发 力空间，股指下方较为坚挺。后续交易重点或将转向经济基本面，近期需关注本周末中美贸易谈判情况以 及之后国内 ...