Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant impact of increased tariffs on container shipping demand between China and the United States, leading to a sharp decline in import volumes and potential disruptions in logistics networks [1][3][5]. Group 1: Impact of Tariffs - The U.S. container import volume has decreased by 30% compared to the same period last year due to the impact of increased tariffs on Chinese goods [1][3]. - Following the implementation of a 145% tariff on Chinese goods, shipping bookings for Chinese products have been canceled, with a reported 30-40% decrease in container transport volume between China and the U.S. in April [3][4]. - A forecast predicts that container arrivals from China to the U.S. will drop by 60% during the week of June 9-15 compared to the previous year [3]. Group 2: Shipping Demand and Freight Rates - The shipping industry is transitioning from a phase of ensuring inventory through last-minute shipments to one of releasing backlogged inventory [4]. - Despite a sharp decline in shipping demand, spot freight rates for container shipping remain strong, with rates from Shanghai to the U.S. West Coast rising to $2,272 per 40-foot container, a 6% increase from the previous week [4]. - Shipping companies are adjusting supply by canceling scheduled routes and using smaller vessels, which has positively impacted freight rates [4]. Group 3: Future Outlook - With the recent reduction of tariffs from 145% to 30%, there are expectations for a recovery in cargo transport; however, the time required to restore shipping capacity may lead to space shortages if cargo volumes surge [5].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 PTA&MEG早报-2025年5月15日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 投资咨询资格证号：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 今日关注 基本面数据 5 PTA 每日观点 PTA： 5、主力持仓：净空 空减 偏空 6、预期：短期内聚酯库存向下转移，聚酯库存压力缓解下，负荷维持，PTA供需去库周期中流通性相对偏紧，加上近期由于 关税调整，终端订单环比改善，市场心态提振，短期内基差偏强。关注加工差好转预期下后期装置的检修兑现情况，以及终 端订单情况。 1、基本面：昨日PTA期货震荡上涨，现货市场商谈氛围尚可，日内消息面较多，近期价格上涨以及加工差修复，个别装置检 修计划可能延后，另外下午聚酯大厂对部分亏损产品规划减产，贸易商获利了结心态，且主流供应商也有在出5月货源，现货 基差涨后回落，贸易商商谈为主。个 ...

Core Viewpoint - The adjustment of China-US tariff policies has led to a surge in shipping activities at Shenzhen Yantian Port, with significant increases in export volumes to the US and heightened demand for shipping capacity [1][3][15]. Group 1: Shipping and Logistics - Shenzhen Yantian Port is one of the busiest ports for North American routes in South China, currently handling over 25% of China's exports to the US [3][4]. - There are currently 5-6 vessels operating daily from Yantian Port to the US, indicating a busy shipping schedule [4][9]. - Shipping companies are urgently coordinating berth arrangements due to increased demand, as many have shifted capacity to Southeast Asia and Europe previously [7][20]. Group 2: Export Demand - US clients are rapidly placing orders to stock up during the 90-day tariff adjustment window, leading to a noticeable increase in the number of export containers arriving at the port [4][15]. - A Shanghai knitting factory has received a notification to ship over 50,000 garments that had been in storage for a month, with plans to ship a total of 300,000 items within the tariff adjustment period [10][14]. Group 3: Price Adjustments and Capacity Issues - Shipping rates for containers to the US have seen a rebound, with prices increasing by $500 to $1,500 per container, particularly for routes from Shanghai to New York [20][22]. - The shipping capacity for routes to the US has been reduced by over 30% previously, leading to a mismatch in supply and demand, which has driven up shipping prices [22]. Group 4: Broader Market Impact - Many foreign trade enterprises across China, including those in Jiangxi and Zhejiang, are experiencing a surge in orders from US clients, with some companies also exploring markets in Europe and other regions [27][23]. - Cross-border e-commerce companies in Shenzhen have begun to lower product prices, resulting in a significant influx of orders from US customers [34][36].

Group 1 - The U.S. stock market showed mixed results on May 14, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average down by 89.37 points to close at 42,051.06, a decrease of 0.21%, while the S&P 500 rose by 6.03 points to 5,892.58, an increase of 0.10%, and the Nasdaq Composite increased by 136.72 points to 19,146.81, a rise of 0.72% [1] - The S&P 500 index saw eight sectors decline and three sectors gain, with the healthcare and materials sectors leading the declines at 2.31% and 0.96%, respectively, while the communication services and technology sectors led the gains at 1.58% and 0.96% [1] - Analysts suggest that the recent progress in U.S.-China trade negotiations may have alleviated some investor concerns, although uncertainties regarding future tariff levels remain [1] Group 2 - Deutsche Bank's strategist noted that U.S. companies are likely to benefit from lower tariffs in the short term, which may allow the S&P 500 to outperform other national indices [2] - Despite current lower tariff rates, U.S. companies still face a greater burden compared to European firms, indicating potential challenges ahead [2] - Morgan Stanley's market research head indicated that the next significant rise in the U.S. stock market may not occur until favorable policies are introduced in 2026, emphasizing a current investor preference for high-quality stocks that can meet earnings expectations [2]

重要新闻 1. 国务院关税税则委员会：调整对原产于美国的进口商品加征关税措施 国务院关税税则委员会公布公告，自2025年5月14日12时01分起，调整《国务院关税税则委员会关于对 原产于美国的进口商品加征关税的公告》（税委会公告2025年第4号）规定的加征关税税率，由34%调 整为10%，在90天内暂停实施24%的对美加征关税税率。自2025年5月14日12时01分起，停止实施《国 务院关税税则委员会关于调整对原产于美国的进口商品加征关税措施的公告》（税委会公告2025年第5 号）和《国务院关税税则委员会关于调整对原产于美国的进口商品加征关税措施的公告》（税委会公告 2025年第6号）规定的加征关税措施。 2. 市场监管总局等五部门约谈外卖平台企业 近日，市场监管总局会同中央社会工作部、中央网信办、人力资源社会保障部、商务部，针对当前外卖 行业竞争中存在的突出问题，约谈京东、美团、饿了么等平台企业。要求相关平台企业严格遵守《中华 人民共和国电子商务法》《中华人民共和国反不正当竞争法》《中华人民共和国食品安全法》等法律法 规规定，严格落实主体责任，主动履行社会责任，加强内部管理，合法规范经营，公平有序竞争，共同 ...

Important News - The US has adjusted tariffs on China as of May 14, 00:01 Eastern Time [1] - China Securities Depository and Clearing Corporation clarified that account verification is a routine operation, not a special arrangement for "off-market financing" [1] - The People's Bank of China reported that from January to April, the total social financing increased by 16.34 trillion yuan, with new loans amounting to 10.06 trillion yuan, and M2 growth year-on-year at 8% [1] Company News - Tencent (00700.HK) reported Q1 revenue of 180 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13% [1] - China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (00386.HK) received an increase of approximately 302 million H-shares from Sinopec Group [1] - Longfor Properties (06968.HK) reported contract sales of approximately 1.804 billion yuan in the first four months, a year-on-year decrease of 0.3% [1] - Oceanwide Holdings (03377.HK) reported cumulative contract sales of approximately 8.09 billion yuan in the first four months, a year-on-year increase of 13.62% [1] - New China Life Insurance (01336.HK) reported original insurance premium income of 85.3791 billion yuan in the first four months, a year-on-year increase of 27% [1] - China Pacific Insurance (02601.HK) reported original insurance premium income of 115.359 billion yuan from Pacific Life Insurance in the first four months, a year-on-year increase of 10.4% [1] - Heng Rui Medicine plans to issue 224.5 million shares in Hong Kong, with an issue price not exceeding 44.05 HKD [1] - Vanke Enterprises (02202.HK) announced that its largest shareholder, Shenzhen Metro Group, plans to provide a loan to the company not exceeding 1.552 billion yuan [1] - Greentown China Holdings (00095.HK) has postponed the hearing for its liquidation application to July 9 [1]

Core Viewpoint - The prices of copper, aluminum, and zinc on the London Metal Exchange (LME) reached their highest levels since early April due to the U.S. adjusting tariffs on Chinese imports, which temporarily increased the risk appetite for metals reliant on economic growth [1][3]. Price Movements - As of May 14, 2023, LME three-month copper rose by $7 to $9,606.50 per ton, having previously hit a peak of $9,664, the highest since April 2 [1][2]. - Three-month aluminum reached $2,543.5 per ton, marking its highest point since April 1 [1]. - Three-month zinc increased by 2.22%, closing at $2,765.00 per ton [1][2]. Tariff Adjustments - The U.S. has rescinded a total of 91% of tariffs on Chinese goods and modified a 34% tariff, with 24% of it suspended for 90 days, while retaining 10% [3]. - The adjustments are in line with the consensus reached during high-level economic talks between the U.S. and China [3]. Market Conditions - The U.S. dollar has weakened following disappointing consumer inflation data, providing further support to the market [4]. - China's social financing scale stock was reported at 424 trillion yuan at the end of April 2025, reflecting an 8.7% year-on-year growth, indicating future demand for industrial metals [4]. - The premium of COMEX copper over LME copper has decreased from 18% at the end of March to around 10% currently, with COMEX copper inventories increasing by 77% since late February [4].

Group 1 - The core point of the article is the reduction of tariffs on agricultural products between the US and China, with the US lowering tariffs on Chinese imports from 145% to 30% and China reducing tariffs on US imports from 125% to 10% [1] - Brazil is expected to benefit from the tariff changes, as it is the largest soybean supplier to China, and its exports are not subject to the same tariffs as US products [1][3] - The US soybean market has been significantly impacted by the trade war, with over half of US soybean exports going to China in recent years, but the tariffs have created opportunities for Brazilian farmers [3] Group 2 - During the tariff suspension period, US pork exports to China still face a minimum tariff of 57%, which could affect export volumes during the critical harvest season for US soybeans and corn [4] - Australia has seen a record increase in beef exports to China, while US beef exports have stagnated, with Chinese importers recently canceling orders [4] - China has increased its imports of feedlot beef from Australia, with approximately 42,000 tons imported this year, marking a 36% increase compared to the same period last year [4]

Core Insights - Hasbro is adjusting its strategies in response to a significant reduction in tariffs on Chinese imports from 145% to 30%, which has positively impacted the company's planning and pricing strategies [1][2][6] Group 1: Pricing and Product Strategy - The reduction in tariffs has led Hasbro to pause many planned pricing changes that were initially set under the 145% tariff regime, allowing for more thoughtful pricing decisions moving forward [2][3] - The company had previously planned to discontinue certain products due to unfavorable manufacturing costs but is now reconsidering those plans in light of the new tariff situation [4][5] Group 2: Financial Impact - Hasbro had estimated that the 145% tariffs could reduce its annual net profits by $180 million, but with the new 30% tariff, this figure is now projected to be between $50 million and $70 million [6] - The company acknowledges that the current tariff agreement is temporary and the trade environment remains uncertain, indicating that ongoing adjustments will be necessary [6]

5月14日12时01分起，中美相互调整后的关税正式实施，美方取消了共计91%的加征关税，中方相应取消了91%的反制关税；美方暂停实施24%的"对等关 税"，中方也相应暂停实施24%的反制关税。 关税降了，全球市场都松了一口气，美国客商更是趁着缓冲期赶紧下订单、提货。然而，对于外贸企业，特别是中小型外贸企业来说，经历了此前关税风 浪带来的挑战，他们在外贸市场的"通关秘籍"已经改变。 但最后，张艳还是顶住了重重压力，抱着"允许客户不下单，但不允许自己不准备"的心态决定"先干了再说"。于是，在十多轮样品的打磨、寄送以及双方 来回沟通后，张艳于当年十月初寄出了第一批货，最终完成订单，赚到了创业路上的"第一桶金"。她至今仍清楚记得，客户叫西米和凯瑞，是美国连锁超 市的供货商。 远隔重洋的买家和卖家，在未曾谋面只通过电话、网络联系的情况下，选择彼此信任，克服重重阻隔，最终达成合作。来自中国廊坊一家小厂房内的乐器 类玩具就这样飘洋过海，为太平洋彼岸的家庭送去了圣诞的乐音。 这家小玩具厂的发展史，恰是此后二十年"中国制造"一路壮大的生动注脚。在中美两国合作互信、商贸往来中，伴随着跨境电商和国际物流的飞速发展， 中国制造的产品 ...