Report Information - Report Date: September 29, 2025 [1] - Authors: Zhou Xiaoqiu, Wu Hao [1] - Investment Advisory Qualification Numbers: Z0001891 (Zhou Xiaoqiu), Z0018592 (Wu Hao) [1] - Email Addresses: zhouxiaoqiu@gtht.com (Zhou Xiaoqiu), wuhao8@gtht.com (Wu Hao) [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The bottom of the live pig spot market has not been reached, and short positions should be held [1] Summary of Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Spot Prices**: Henan's spot price is 12,580 yuan/ton, Sichuan's is 12,150 yuan/ton (down 100 yuan/ton year-on-year), and Guangdong's is 13,110 yuan/ton [2] - **Futures Prices**: The prices of live pig futures contracts 2511, 2601, and 2603 are 12,575 yuan/ton (down 110 yuan/ton year-on-year), 13,100 yuan/ton (down 210 yuan/ton year-on-year), and 12,655 yuan/ton (down 90 yuan/ton year-on-year) respectively [2] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volumes of contracts 2511, 2601, and 2603 are 38,742 lots (up 7,824 lots from the previous day), 26,927 lots (up 13,770 lots), and 7,332 lots (up 1,890 lots) respectively; the open interests are 85,019 lots (down 4,519 lots from the previous day), 71,622 lots (up 5,120 lots), and 50,862 lots (up 2,386 lots) respectively [2] - **Price Spreads**: The basis of contracts 2511, 2601, and 2603 are 5 yuan/ton (up 110 yuan/ton year-on-year), -520 yuan/ton (up 210 yuan/ton year-on-year), and -75 yuan/ton (up 90 yuan/ton year-on-year) respectively; the spreads between contracts 11 - 1 and 1 - 3 are -525 yuan/ton (up 100 yuan/ton year-on-year) and 445 yuan/ton (down 120 yuan/ton year-on-year) respectively [2] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity is -1, indicating a bearish view. The range of trend intensity is an integer within [-2, 2], with -2 being the most bearish and 2 being the most bullish [3]

王涵西 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0019174 wanghanxi@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 表 1：沥青基本面数据 2025 年 9 月 29 日 沥青：成本支撑，厂库续累 | | 项目 | 单位 | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨跌 | 昨夜夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | BU2511 | 元/吨 | 3,450 | 0.29% | 3,463 | 0.38% | | | BU2512 | 元/吨 | 3,412 | 0.80% | 3,425 | 0.38% | | 期货 | | | 昨日成交 | 成交变动 | 昨日持仓 | 持仓变动 | | | BU2511 | 手 | 210,079 | 34,702 | 158,628 | (39,021) | | | BU2512 | 手 | 69,526 | 15,722 | 92,132 | 3,610 | | | | | 昨日仓单 | 仓单变化 | | | | | 沥青全市场 | 手 | 50650 | 0 | | | | | | | 昨日价差 | 前日价差 | 价差 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - For PTA, the market expected it to be bearish, with limited upside for basis and absolute prices to fluctuate with the cost side. Attention should be paid to oil price fluctuations and upstream - downstream device changes [5]. - For MEG, the price was expected to be sorted at a low level before the holiday. The supply - demand balance would turn to surplus in the fourth quarter, and the fundamental support was weak. Attention should be paid to external factors and device changes [7]. Summary by Directory 1. Previous Day Review - Not provided in the report 2. Daily Tips PTA - **Fundamentals**: On Friday, September cargo was traded at 01 - 73~75, with prices negotiated around 4570 - 4605. Mid - October cargo was traded at a discount of 55 - 60 to 01, and late - October cargo at a discount of 50 to 01. The mainstream spot basis was 01 - 74 [5]. - **Basis**: Spot price was 4590, 01 contract basis was - 56, with the futures price higher than the spot price [6]. - **Inventory**: PTA factory inventory was 3.75 days, a decrease of 0.05 days compared to the previous period [6]. - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average was downward, and the closing price was above the 20 - day moving average [6]. - **Main positions**: Net short positions were decreasing [6]. - **Expectation**: PTA futures rebounded with the cost side this week. Some PTA plants reduced or stopped production due to typhoons, and polyester sales improved. The spot basis strengthened slightly, but the market remained bearish, with limited upside for the basis [5]. MEG - **Fundamentals**: On Friday, the price of ethylene glycol declined weakly. Night - session trading was weak, with spot trading at a premium of 57 - 62 yuan/ton to the 01 contract. The intraday basis recovered slightly, with September futures trading at a premium of 65 yuan/ton to the 01 contract [7]. - **Basis**: Spot price was 4300, 01 contract basis was 77, with the spot price higher than the futures price [8]. - **Inventory**: The total inventory in East China was 40.43 tons, an increase of 2.26 tons compared to the previous period [8]. - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average was downward, and the closing price was below the 20 - day moving average [8]. - **Main positions**: Net short positions were increasing [7]. - **Expectation**: Polyester sales improved last week, and polyester factory inventories decreased. However, the intention to hold positions before the holiday was weak. The price was expected to be sorted at a low level. The supply - demand balance would turn to surplus in the fourth quarter, and the fundamental support was weak [7]. 3. Today's Focus Influencing Factors - **Positive factors**: U.S. crude oil inventories decreased by 607,000 barrels last week, contrary to analysts' expectations of an increase of 235,000 barrels. The approaching "Golden September and Silver October" season raised expectations of demand. Yisheng Hainan's 2 - million - ton plant was shut down for maintenance and was expected to restart in November [9][10][11]. - **Negative factors**: The short - term commodity market was greatly affected by the macro - level. Attention should be paid to the cost side, and resistance levels should be watched for a rebound in the market [12]. Supply - Demand Balance Sheets - **PTA**: The report provided PTA supply - demand balance sheets from January 2024 to December 2025, including data on capacity, production, imports, exports, and inventory [13]. - **MEG**: The report provided ethylene glycol supply - demand balance sheets from January 2024 to December 2025, including data on production, imports, and inventory [14]. 4. Fundamental Data Price - The report presented historical price data for bottle chips, production margins, and various spreads for PTA and MEG from 2020 to 2025 [17][20][27]. Inventory Analysis - It included historical inventory data for PTA, MEG, PET chips, and polyester fibers from 2021 to 2025 [44][46]. Upstream and Downstream开工率 - It showed historical开工率 data for PTA, xylene, ethylene glycol, polyester factories, and Jiangsu - Zhejiang looms from 2020 to 2025 [54][58]. Profit - It presented historical profit data for PTA, MEG, polyester fibers, and other products from 2022 to 2025 [63][64].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The mid - term trends of p - xylene (PX), purified terephthalic acid (PTA), and monoethylene glycol (MEG) are still weak. Before the holiday, attention should be paid to position management. For MEG, a 1 - 5 month spread reverse arbitrage is recommended [1]. - The trend intensities of PX, PTA, and MEG are all neutral (0) [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Data - **Futures Data**: The previous day's closing prices of PX, PTA, MEG, PF, and SC futures were 6656, 4646, 4213, 6326, and 491.3 respectively, with changes of - 18, - 32, - 33, - 46, and 0.7, and percentage changes of - 0.27%, - 0.68%, - 0.78%, - 0.72%, and 0.14% [2]. - **Month - spread Data**: The previous day's closing prices of PX1 - 5, PTA1 - 5, MEG1 - 5, PF12 - 1, and SC11 - 12 month - spreads were - 32, - 46, - 63, - 44, and - 0.8 respectively, with changes of 10, - 6, 1, 0, and 0.3 [2]. - **Spot Data**: The previous day's spot prices of PX CFR China, PTA East China, MEG, naphtha MOPJ, and Dated Brent were 814 dollars/ton, 4590 yuan/ton, 4300 yuan/ton, 608 dollars/ton, and 71.92 dollars/barrel respectively, with changes of - 3, 0, 10, - 0.5, and 1.39 [2]. - **Spot Processing Fee Data**: The previous day's spot processing fees of PX - naphtha spread, PTA processing fee, short - fiber processing fee, bottle - chip processing fee, and MOPJ naphtha - Dubai crude oil spread were 206 dollars/ton, 217.21 yuan/ton, 222.06 yuan/ton, 59.94 yuan/ton, and - 6.01 respectively, with changes of - 2.5, 19.02, - 12.24, - 29.3, and 0 [2]. Market Dynamics In 2025, on September 5, the US White House issued a presidential order, canceling the exemption from reciprocal tariffs for the tariff codes 3907.61.00 and 3907.69.00 related to polyester bottle chips, and including polyester bottle chips in the scope of reciprocal tariff collection. Recycled PET now has the same tariff system as virgin PET [2]. Views and Suggestions - **PX**: The unilateral trend may still be weak, and a 1 - 5 reverse arbitrage is recommended. The PXN position for compression should be closed with a profit. The domestic PX operating rate is 86.7% (+0.4%), and the Asian PX operating rate is 78% (-0.2%). The PTA load is 76.8% (-). The PTA processing fee has recovered to 217 yuan/ton, and PXN has dropped to 206 dollars/ton. Overseas reforming profits are low, and South Korean plants may reduce their loads in the future. Attention should be paid to the support of overseas MX blending demand for PX valuation [4]. - **PTA**: The unilateral trend may still be weak, and a 1 - 5 reverse arbitrage is recommended. Short the PTA processing fee of 01/05 contracts on rebounds. The PTA load is 76.8% (-). The polyester operating rate this week is 90.3% (-1.3%). Although there are unplanned production cuts, the supply surplus in East China is still difficult to change, and the basis is difficult to strengthen significantly. In the medium - to - long term, the inventory pressure of polyester factories is expected to rise again after the holiday [5]. - **MEG**: The unilateral trend may still be weak, and a 1 - 5 reverse arbitrage is recommended. The overall operating load of ethylene glycol in the Chinese mainland is 73.08% (down 1.85% from the previous period). Factories have announced maintenance plans for October - November. The polyester operating rate this week is 90.3% (-1.3%). The ethylene glycol supply - demand balance sheet is still strong in the near - term, and the basis is expected to be strong [6].

铝&氧化铝产业链周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所·王蓉（首席分析师/所长助理） 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002529 日期：2025年09月28日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 铝：小幅反弹后再回调，依然在磨盘，节前可轻仓 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 资料来源：国泰君安期货研究 2 ◆ 本周沪铝在铜价因印尼矿端事件引发的大涨行情带领下，略有反弹，但随后伴随铜价休整回落，铝价亦再度回调。短期 整体趋势仍在磨盘，节前可轻仓，长假期间建议关注美国非农、海外多国制造业PMI数据等对国际市场的冲击。中期趋势 性上看，我们在铝的单边价格、波动率方向、冶炼利润上，继续保持看多方向。 ◆ 当前周频跟踪的基本面微观指标来看，整体依然不差。SMM华东现货贴水转平水，不过华南现货贴水有所扩大。截至9月 25日，铝锭社会库存较前周去库2.2万吨至61.4万吨，周四出现去库，在国庆累库过后可观察是否已形成去库拐点的确认。 下游方面，截至9月26日铝板带箔周度总产量已经连续第6周环比增加，年初迄 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - L, PP neutral; L01 - L05 reverse spread; PP01 - PP05 reverse spread; no cross - variety strategy [4] 2. Core View of the Report - Demand follow - up for both PE and PP is weak, suppressing their upward space. PE supply is increasing while demand improvement is limited, and inventory reduction is slow. PP demand is slowly recovering, and it is restricted by supply and has limited profit space [2][3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market News and Important Data - **Price and Basis**: L main contract closed at 7159 yuan/ton (-10), PP main contract at 6893 yuan/ton (-5). LL North China spot was 7140 yuan/ton (+10), LL East China spot 7140 yuan/ton (+0), PP East China spot 6750 yuan/ton (+0). LL North China basis was -29 yuan/ton (+10), LL East China basis -19 yuan/ton (+10), PP East China basis -143 yuan/ton (+5) [1] - **Upstream Supply**: PE operating rate was 81.8% (+1.5%), PP operating rate 75.5% (+0.6%) [1] - **Production Profit**: PE oil - based production profit was -1.8 yuan/ton (-55.8), PP oil - based production profit -631.8 yuan/ton (-55.8), PDH - made PP production profit -264.0 yuan/ton (-39.2) [1] - **Import and Export**: LL import profit was -56.7 yuan/ton (-1.9), PP import profit -532.6 yuan/ton (-1.9), PP export profit 15.3 US dollars/ton (+0.2) [1] - **Downstream Demand**: PE downstream agricultural film operating rate was 32.9% (+6.1%), PE downstream packaging film operating rate 52.4% (+0.6%), PP downstream plastic weaving operating rate 43.9% (+0.3%), PP downstream BOPP film operating rate 61.4% (+0.0%) [1] 3.2 Market Analysis - **PE**: Supply is increasing as many restarted devices and few new planned maintenance. Demand has a slight improvement in pre - holiday stocking, but follow - up is insufficient. Cost support from oil prices is weak, and the market is in a volatile trend [2] - **PP**: Supply may increase as the restart of devices is expected to exceed maintenance. Demand is slowly recovering, but support is limited. Cost is affected by weak oil prices and strong propane, and profit restricts the downward space [3] 3.3 Strategy - **Single - side**: L, PP neutral [4] - **Inter - period**: L01 - L05 reverse spread; PP01 - PP05 reverse spread [4] - **Cross - variety**: None [4]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - For rapeseed oil, suggest a bullish approach and monitor China - Canada trade relations. The futures price closed higher this week. Although Canada's rapeseed harvest is expected to be good and domestic vegetable oil supply is relatively loose, rapeseed oil production pressure is low due to low oil mill operating rates and limited near - month rapeseed purchases. The extension of anti - dumping investigations on Canadian rapeseed may keep the supply tight in the fourth quarter. Overall, rapeseed oil is still supported before substantial progress in China - Canada trade negotiations [8][9] - For rapeseed meal, suggest short - term trading and pay attention to China - US and China - Canada economic and trade relations. The futures price declined this week. US soybean harvest is approaching with a good harvest expectation, and Argentina's export tax policy has changed the international market competition. Domestically, near - month rapeseed arrivals are low, but the substitution advantage of soybean meal weakens the demand for rapeseed meal. The market is cautious due to frequent trade policy news [11][12] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Week - to - Week Key Points Summary - Rapeseed oil: The 01 contract closed at 10,162 yuan/ton, up 94 yuan/ton from last week. Canada's rapeseed production is expected to reach 20 million tons, the highest since 2018. Domestic vegetable oil supply is loose, but rapeseed oil production pressure is low. The anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed may lead to tight supply in the fourth quarter [9] - Rapeseed meal: The 01 contract closed at 2,404 yuan/ton, down 117 yuan/ton from last week. US soybean harvest is approaching, and Argentina's export tax policy has changed. Domestically, near - month rapeseed arrivals are low, but soybean meal substitution weakens demand [12] 2. Futures and Spot Market - Futures price and position: Rapeseed oil futures closed higher with a total position of 354,265 lots, up 1,836 lots from last week. Rapeseed meal futures declined with a total position of 371,100 lots, down 10,071 lots from last week [16] - Top 20 net positions: Rapeseed oil's top 20 net long position increased from +33,259 to +36,449. Rapeseed meal's top 20 net short position increased from - 13,121 to - 62,563 [20] - Futures warehouse receipts: Rapeseed oil registered warehouse receipts were 8,057 lots, and rapeseed meal were 9,245 lots [26][27] - Spot price and basis: In Jiangsu, rapeseed oil spot price was 10,390 yuan/ton, slightly up from last week, and the basis was +228 yuan/ton. In Jiangsu Nantong, rapeseed meal price was 2,570 yuan/ton, with little change, and the basis was +65 yuan/ton [33][39] - Futures inter - month spread: Rapeseed oil 1 - 5 spread was +520 yuan/ton, and rapeseed meal 1 - 5 spread was +78 yuan/ton, both at medium levels in recent years [46] - Futures - spot ratio: Rapeseed oil - meal 01 contract ratio was 4.22, and the spot average price ratio was 4.21 [49] - Price spread between rapeseed oil and other oils: Rapeseed - soybean oil 01 contract spread was 2,000 yuan/ton, and rapeseed - palm oil 01 contract spread was 926 yuan/ton, both expanding this week [58] - Price spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal: Soybean meal - rapeseed meal 01 contract spread was 532 yuan/ton, and the spot spread was 450 yuan/ton as of Thursday [64] 3. Industry Chain Situation Rapeseed - Supply - inventory and import: As of September 19, 2025, oil mill rapeseed inventory was 50,000 tons. The estimated arrivals in September, October, and November 2025 were 190,000, 150,000, and 450,000 tons respectively [70] - Supply - import crushing profit: As of September 26, the import rapeseed spot crushing profit was +1,373 yuan/ton [74] - Supply - oil mill crushing volume: As of the 38th week of 2025, the rapeseed crushing volume of major coastal oil mills was 49,000 tons, down 12,000 tons from last week, with an operating rate of 11.99% [78] - Supply - monthly import: In August 2025, China's rapeseed import was 246,600 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 348,000 tons (58.52%) and a month - on - month increase of 70,600 tons [82] Rapeseed Oil - Supply - inventory and import: As of the 38th week of 2025, domestic imported rapeseed oil inventory was 664,000 tons, down 19,000 tons (2.73%) from last week. In August 2025, rapeseed oil import was 140,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 20,000 tons (16.67%) and a month - on - month increase of 10,000 tons [86] - Demand - consumption and production: As of August 31, 2025, the monthly output of edible vegetable oil was 4.506 million tons, and the monthly catering revenue was 449.57 billion yuan [90] - Demand - contract volume: As of the 38th week of 2025, the domestic imported rapeseed oil contract volume was 76,000 tons, down 5,000 tons (7.13%) from last week [94] Rapeseed Meal - Supply - inventory: As of the 38th week of 2025, domestic imported rapeseed meal inventory was 17,000 tons, down 1,000 tons (2.86%) from last week [98] - Supply - import: In August 2025, rapeseed meal import was 213,400 tons, a year - on - year increase of 9,600 tons (4.72%) and a month - on - month increase of 30,300 tons [102] - Demand - feed production: As of July 31, 2025, the monthly feed output was 2.8273 million tons [106] 4. Option Market Analysis - As of September 26, the implied volatility of rapeseed meal options was 26.61%, up 4.12% from last week, at a slightly high level compared to the 20 - day, 40 - day, and 60 - day historical volatility of the underlying [109]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro - finance**: Long - term bullish on stock indices, hold a wait - and - see attitude towards treasury bonds [1][5] - **Black building materials**: Adopt range trading for coking coal and rebar, and buy on dips for glass [1][7][8] - **Non - ferrous metals**: Wait or buy on dips for copper, buy on dips after pullbacks for aluminum, wait or short on rallies for nickel, conduct range trading for tin, silver, and gold [1][10][11][16] - **Energy and chemicals**: PVC, caustic soda, styrene, rubber, urea, and methanol are expected to fluctuate; conduct a short 01 and long 05 arbitrage for soda ash; polyolefins are expected to have wide - range fluctuations [1][20][22][24] - **Cotton textile industry chain**: Cotton and cotton yarn, PTA are expected to fluctuate; apples are expected to fluctuate strongly; jujubes are expected to fluctuate weakly [1][33][35] - **Agriculture and animal husbandry**: Short on rallies for pigs and eggs; corn is expected to have wide - range fluctuations; soybean meal is expected to have range fluctuations; oils are expected to fluctuate strongly [1][37][41][44] Core Views The report provides investment strategies and market analyses for various futures products. It takes into account factors such as supply and demand, cost, macro - economic policies, and international events. For example, in the non - ferrous metals sector, supply disruptions and macro - economic uncertainties affect prices; in the energy and chemicals sector, factors like production capacity, demand, and cost determine the market trends [10][20][33] Summary by Categories Macro - finance - **Stock indices**: A - share market showed differentiation on Thursday. Growth sectors were relatively strong. The market is expected to fluctuate in the short - term and is long - term bullish. It is recommended to buy on dips [5] - **Treasury bonds**: The interest - rate bond market had wide - range fluctuations on Thursday. After a panic - driven sell - off, it may enter a short - term bottom - building phase. It is recommended to hold a wait - and - see attitude [5] Black building materials - **Coking coal and coking**: Multiple factors have boosted market sentiment, leading to a price increase in the coal industry. It is recommended to conduct range trading [7] - **Rebar**: The rebar futures price had narrow - range fluctuations on Thursday. The short - term situation is a combination of weak industry fundamentals and strong macro - factors. It is recommended to buy on dips, with the RB2601 contract focusing on the 3100 - 3250 range [7] - **Glass**: The spot price increase of glass manufacturers has stimulated the market. Supply and demand are relatively balanced. It is recommended to buy on dips, with the 01 contract focusing on the 1160 - 1200 support level [8] Non - ferrous metals - **Copper**: Supply disruptions and the approaching holiday stocking period may support copper prices. It is recommended to wait or buy on dips for short - term trading [10][11] - **Aluminum**: The production capacity of alumina and electrolytic aluminum is increasing. Demand is entering the peak season, and inventory is decreasing. It is recommended to buy on dips after pullbacks and consider a short AD and long AL arbitrage strategy [11] - **Nickel**: The supply of nickel is in surplus in the medium - to - long - term. It is recommended to short on rallies moderately [16] - **Tin**: Supply improvement is limited, and downstream consumption is warming up. It is recommended to conduct range trading, with the SHFE tin 10 - contract focusing on the 26.5 - 28 million yuan/ton range [16] - **Silver and gold**: After the Fed's interest - rate cut, precious metal prices are expected to have support. It is recommended to conduct range trading [17] Energy and chemicals - **PVC**: High supply, weak demand, and uncertain exports. It is expected to fluctuate, with the 01 contract focusing on the 4850 - 5050 range [20] - **Caustic soda**: Considering downstream restocking and future alumina production expectations, it is expected to fluctuate, with the 01 contract focusing on the 2450 - 2650 range [22] - **Styrene**: Weak supply - demand fundamentals. It is expected to fluctuate, focusing on the 6700 - 7100 range [24] - **Rubber**: Affected by factors such as typhoons and pre - holiday sentiment, it is expected to have a weak - side fluctuation, focusing on the 15500 support level [26] - **Urea**: Supply is increasing, and agricultural demand is scattered. It is recommended to focus on the 01 - contract's 1600 - 1630 support level and the 1 - 5 spread positive - arbitrage opportunity [27] - **Methanol**: Supply is decreasing, and demand from the methanol - to - olefins industry is increasing. It is expected to fluctuate, with the 01 contract focusing on the 2330 - 2450 range [28] - **Polyolefins**: Supply and demand are both changing. It is expected to have wide - range fluctuations, with the L2601 contract focusing on the 7100 - 7500 range and the PP2601 contract focusing on the 6800 - 7200 range [28] - **Soda ash**: Affected by glass price increases and production capacity changes, it is recommended to conduct a short 01 and long 05 arbitrage [31] Cotton textile industry chain - **Cotton and cotton yarn**: The global cotton supply - demand situation is changing. The spot market is strong, but there is downward pressure on prices in the future. It is recommended to prepare for hedging [33] - **PTA**: Affected by factors such as the Russia - Ukraine conflict and supply - demand changes, it is expected to have range fluctuations, focusing on the 4550 - 4800 range [33] - **Apples**: The price of early - maturing apples is firm. It is expected to fluctuate strongly [35] - **Jujubes**: The market is currently quiet. It is expected to have a weak - side fluctuation and then a rebound [35] Agriculture and animal husbandry - **Pigs**: Supply is large, and prices are under pressure. It is recommended to short on rallies for the 11, 01, and 03 contracts, and be cautious when bottom - fishing for the 05 and 07 contracts. Also, pay attention to the long 05 and short 03 arbitrage [37][38] - **Eggs**: Short - term pre - holiday demand is weakening, and long - term supply pressure is large. It is recommended to short on rallies for the 11 contract and be cautious when shorting the 12 and 01 contracts [39][40] - **Corn**: New crop supply will ease the tight supply of old crops. It is recommended to take a short - side approach, wait for a rebound to short lightly, and pay attention to the 1 - 5 reverse - arbitrage [41][43] - **Soybean meal**: Supply is expected to be loose in the fourth quarter. It is recommended to reduce long positions on rallies and hold on dips, focusing on the 2900 support level of the M2601 contract [43] - **Oils**: After the tariff event's negative impact is over, oils are expected to stop falling and rebound. It is recommended to take a long - on - dips approach and pay attention to arbitrage opportunities [44][50]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly mention an overall industry investment rating but provides individual ratings for each metal: Gold, Silver, Copper, Aluminum, and Polysilicon are rated ★★; Zinc, Lead, Tin, Nickel, Industrial Silicon, and Lithium Carbonate are rated ★ [1] Core Viewpoints - Gold and silver are supported by the US government shutdown risk and dovish statements from Fed officials, with a long - term bullish outlook [1][3] - Copper prices are driven by macro - micro resonance, and there is a long - term positive view on copper due to supply shortages and strategic importance [1][6][7] - Zinc shows a weak rebound in the short - term, with a long - term view of supply increase and demand decrease [1][9][10] - Aluminum prices are expected to rise as the peak season approaches, with short - term buying opportunities [1][13][14] - Nickel prices rebound but are restricted by demand, and it is recommended to wait and see [1][17][18] - Lithium carbonate is in a state of both supply and demand growth, showing short - term strength [1][21][22] Summary by Metal Gold and Silver - **Market Review**: Despite the decrease in rate - cut expectations, the increase in future uncertainty risks has led to a significant rise in gold and silver prices [2] - **Logic**: US economic data is unexpectedly good, reducing the probability of rate cuts. However, the US government shutdown risk and dovish statements from Fed officials support gold and silver. In the long run, gold benefits from global monetary easing, the decline of the US dollar's credit, and geopolitical restructuring [3] - **Strategy**: Gold has short - term support at 840, and silver has support around 10000. Long - term long positions in both can be continued [4] Copper - **Market Review**: Shanghai copper and London copper soared by over 3%, hitting a new high for the year [6] - **Logic**: Copper concentrate supply is tight due to a mine accident at Grasberg. The processing fee TC is deeply inverted, and domestic electrolytic copper production may decline in September. Both domestic and overseas inventories are decreasing [6] - **Strategy**: Short - term speculative long positions in copper can be held, with trailing stop - loss. Long - term strategic long positions should be held with option protection. For the long - term, copper is highly regarded [7] Zinc - **Market Review**: Shanghai zinc showed a weak rebound, returning to the 22,000 mark [9] - **Logic**: Zinc concentrate supply will be abundant in 2025. Domestic smelter maintenance in September will reduce zinc ingot production. The SHFE zinc inventory has increased, while the LME zinc inventory continues to decline. Downstream enterprises are restocking before the holiday [9] - **Strategy**: Close short positions in Shanghai zinc before the National Day holiday. In the long - term, maintain the view of shorting on rebounds [10] Aluminum - **Market Review**: Aluminum prices rebounded, and alumina stabilized at a low level [12] - **Logic**: Overseas rate cuts are in line with expectations. Domestic electrolytic aluminum production increased slightly in August, and the inventory changed slightly. The downstream processing industry's operating rate increased slightly. Alumina supply is abundant, and attention should be paid to overseas bauxite supply [13] - **Strategy**: Short - term long positions in Shanghai aluminum can be considered, with attention to the operating rate of downstream processing enterprises [14] Nickel - **Market Review**: Nickel prices rebounded and then declined, and stainless steel prices were under pressure [16] - **Logic**: Overseas rate cuts are in line with expectations. The domestic nickel industry's supply and demand are divided, with an oversupply of refined nickel. The stainless steel market has a consumption peak - season expectation, but the actual situation needs to be observed [17] - **Strategy**: Temporarily wait and see for nickel and stainless steel, paying attention to the improvement in downstream consumption [18] Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The main contract LC2511 opened low and closed high, with a nearly 1% increase [20] - **Logic**: Supply remains stable, and demand has received multiple policy supports. The total inventory has decreased for 6 consecutive weeks, and the smelter inventory is lower than last year [21] - **Strategy**: Pay attention to the support of the 60 - day moving average in the range of 73,500 - 75,200 [22]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货贵金属有色早报（2025 年 9 月 26 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 黄金 | 2512 | 上涨 | 上涨 | 震荡 偏弱 | 长线看强 | 短期多头了结意愿上升，中长线 上行趋势不变 | | 铜 | 2511 | 上涨 | 上涨 | 上涨 | 长线看强 | 宏观宽松背景下，矿端扰动再起， 资金关注度快速上升 | 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货 品种：黄金（AU） 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：上涨 参考观点：长线看强 核心逻辑：本周纽约金触及 38 ...