Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights that spot silver has surged over 185% this year, becoming the third most valuable asset globally, following gold and NVIDIA, surpassing major tech companies like Apple, Google, and Microsoft [1] - According to CompaniesMarketCap data, the market capitalization of silver is $4.485 trillion, while gold leads with $31.719 trillion, and NVIDIA follows closely with $4.638 trillion [1] - The historical high for spot silver was reached at $79.29 per ounce, closing at $79.11, and it has since broken the $80 per ounce mark, driven by supply constraints, designation as a critical mineral by the U.S., steady industrial demand, and market expectations of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts [1] Group 2 - Several exchange-traded funds (ETFs) focused on silver and silver mining include iShares Silver ETF (SLV.US), Abrdn Silver ETF Trust (SIVR.US), ProShares 2x Long Silver ETF (AGQ.US), ProShares 2x Short Silver ETF (ZSL.US), Sprott Physical Silver Trust (PSLV.US), Global X Silver Miners ETF (SIL.US), PureFunds ISE Junior Silver Miners ETF (SILJ.US), and Invesco MSCI Global Silver Miners ETF (SLVP.US) [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that the US dollar index has returned to around 98, with market liquidity significantly weakened during the Christmas week, despite the US Q3 GDP data exceeding expectations. Concerns about the US labor market persist, supporting high expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts [1][18] - Non-US currencies experienced overall appreciation last week, with significant gains in commodity currencies such as the Australian dollar (up 1.57%), New Zealand dollar (up 1.37%), Norwegian krone (up 1.34%), and Canadian dollar (up 0.95%). The British pound rose by 0.88%, while the euro saw a modest increase of about 0.5% [1] - The Japanese yen reversed previous losses after the Bank of Japan's dovish rate hike in December, ultimately appreciating by 0.75% last week. The Chinese yuan also accelerated its appreciation, with the offshore rate briefly surpassing 7.0 due to a weak dollar and increased year-end settlement demand [1][10] Group 2 - Looking ahead, the market is expected to remain relatively stable during the last three trading days of 2025, with liquidity likely to remain weak due to many traders being on holiday. Attention will be focused on the Chinese yuan exchange rate, which may face upward pressure as year-end settlement pressures are released [2] - The prediction range for USD/CNY is set between 7.00 and 7.03. Last week, the yuan maintained a moderate appreciation trend, although the pace of appreciation was limited by the steady exchange rate policy [3][10] - The yuan's appreciation is supported by seasonal factors, but the central bank's steady exchange rate policy has constrained the rate of appreciation. The central bank's recent signals emphasize the need to prevent excessive fluctuations in the exchange rate [11][16] Group 3 - The euro experienced a rise early last week but faced resistance around 1.18, ultimately closing with a weekly gain of about 0.5%. The market's focus on the Federal Reserve's dovish expectations may continue to influence the euro's performance [17] - Concerns about the US labor market persist, with Q3 GDP growth recorded at 4.3%, surpassing expectations. However, weekly unemployment claims data indicates a weakening employment growth momentum, maintaining high expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts [18] - The European Central Bank (ECB) is perceived to have ended its current rate cut cycle, as indicated by the OIS market, which reflects a relatively calm European market during the Christmas holiday [21]

在美联储降息预期、各国央行加大贵金属储备，以及市场上投资性资金大量涌入的背景之下，2025年包 括黄金、白银在内的贵金属价格有望创出本世纪以来最大年度涨幅。 如果将金、银、铂、钯视为单纯 的投资品种，从年内价格变动的情况来看，2025年以来金、银、铂、钯等贵金属的价格涨幅远超同期 铜、铝等基本金属的价格涨幅，也明显超过同期美股市场道琼斯工业指数，以及同期A股市场上证指数 涨幅。贵金属已成为2025年以来回报率最高的大类投资品种之一，2025年俨然成为贵金属的投资"大 年"。 黄金：多种因素助推 金价或创下最近46年来最大年度涨幅 2025年的黄金显然迎来了投资"大年"。 行情数据显示，截至目前，伦敦金现货价格已突破4500美元/盎司，年内累计涨幅已超过70%。 数据显 示，上一次伦敦金年度涨幅超过70%还是46年前的1979年，当年伦敦金现货价格涨幅超过100%。由于 2025年仅剩下几天，这意味着，2025全年黄金价格将大概率创出本世纪以来最大年度涨幅，并将大概率 创出最近46年来最大年度涨幅。 2025年以来金价的大幅上行受到多种因素助推，其中美联储的降息动 作，以及进一步降息的预期是其中一项重要原因。截 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Outperform" for the industry, indicating a positive outlook compared to the broader market [6]. Core Insights - Precious metals are experiencing a surge in demand due to geopolitical risks and expectations of interest rate cuts, leading to record high gold prices [11][12]. - Industrial metals, particularly copper, are seeing price increases despite weak demand, driven by market speculation and supply constraints [13][14]. - New energy metals, especially lithium, are witnessing significant price increases, although spot trading remains sluggish [19][20]. - Other minor metals, such as rare earths, are experiencing price fluctuations, with some prices declining due to weak demand [24]. Summary by Sections Precious Metals - Geopolitical tensions and lower-than-expected inflation data have boosted gold prices to new historical highs, with significant interest in stocks like Zijin Mining and Zhongjin Lingnan [11][12]. - Silver and platinum prices are also rising, with specific stocks recommended for investment [12]. Industrial Metals - Copper prices have increased despite a weak spot market, with the U.S. consumer price index rising by 2.7% year-on-year, enhancing expectations for interest rate cuts [13][14]. - Aluminum production is increasing in Xinjiang, while demand remains strong due to the automotive sector [17][18]. New Energy Metals - Lithium carbonate prices have surged, with significant increases in production and demand from the electric vehicle and energy storage sectors [19][20][23]. - The report highlights strategic investment opportunities in lithium stocks due to their potential in the electric vehicle supply chain [20][23]. Other Minor Metals - Rare earth prices are fluctuating, with praseodymium and neodymium experiencing a rise followed by a decline, while dysprosium and terbium prices are decreasing [24]. - The report suggests monitoring specific stocks in the rare earth and tungsten sectors for potential investment [24]. Market Review - The non-ferrous metal index rose by 6.4%, outperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 indices, with significant gains in lithium chemical products [25][28]. - Notable stock performances include Yuyuan Powder Materials and West Materials, with increases of 41.87% and 24.02% respectively [25][35]. Valuation - The current price-to-earnings (PE) ratio for the non-ferrous industry is 29.55, indicating relatively low valuations for copper and aluminum sectors [40]. - The price-to-book (PB) ratio stands at 3.28, suggesting room for growth in aluminum valuations due to supply constraints and increased demand for green metals [42].

在美联储降息预期、各国央行加大贵金属储备，以及市场上投资性资金大量涌入的背景之下，2025年包括黄金、白银在内的贵金属价格 有望创出本世纪以来最大年度涨幅。 如果将金、银、铂、钯视为单纯的投资品种，从年内价格变动的情况来看，2025年以来金、银、铂、钯等贵金属的价格涨幅远超同期铜、铝等 基本金属的价格涨幅，也明显超过同期美股市场道琼斯工业指数，以及同期A股市场上证指数涨幅。贵金属已成为2025年以来回报率最高的大类 投资品种之一，2025年俨然成为贵金属的投资"大年"。 黄金：多种因素助推 金价或创下最近46年来最大年度涨幅 2025年的黄金显然迎来了投资"大年"。行情数据显示，截至目前，伦敦金现货价格已突破4500美元/盎司，年内累计涨幅已超过70%。 数据显示，上一次伦敦金年度涨幅超过70%还是46年前的1979年，当年伦敦金现货价格涨幅超过100%。由于2025年仅剩下几天，这意味着， 2025全年黄金价格将大概率创出本世纪以来最大年度涨幅，并将大概率创出最近46年来最大年度涨幅。 2025年以来金价的大幅上行受到多种因素助推，其中美联储的降息动作，以及进一步降息的预期是其中一项重要原因。截至目前，20 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent appreciation of the Renminbi (RMB) against the US dollar has sparked discussions in the financial markets, indicating a shift in currency dynamics influenced by external factors such as the US Federal Reserve's interest rate policies and internal economic conditions [3][10]. Group 1: Currency Dynamics - The RMB has appreciated from 7.27 at the beginning of the year to a recent high of 6.9978, with a notable increase of 79 basis points in the central parity rate [3][5]. - The decline of the US dollar index by approximately 1.72% from November 20 to December 17, contributing to nearly a 10% decrease for the year, has been a significant external factor for the RMB's recent strength [3]. - The RMB's appreciation is primarily against the US dollar, while it has not shown a similar strength against non-dollar currencies like the euro, which has depreciated against the RMB [7]. Group 2: Market Reactions and Strategies - Domestic banks are moderating the pace of RMB appreciation by gradually purchasing US dollars, indicating a controlled approach to currency management [5][14]. - Export companies are adjusting their strategies, with some opting for options and forward contracts to hedge against foreign exchange risks rather than speculating on currency movements [12]. - The central bank's operations and guidance on the central parity rate signal a willingness to allow greater volatility while maintaining stability during critical moments [8][14]. Group 3: Economic Implications - The influx of offshore funds into Chinese stocks reached $50.6 billion from January to October, significantly surpassing last year's total of $11.4 billion, reflecting renewed interest in Chinese assets [7]. - The appreciation of the RMB is exerting pressure on domestic manufacturing competitiveness, particularly for price-sensitive products aimed at the US and European markets, leading to a shift in focus towards cost management [12]. - The overall sentiment in the market anticipates a moderate appreciation of the RMB with dual-directional fluctuations, contingent on the trajectory of the US dollar, Sino-US trade expectations, and domestic economic data [16].

摘要今日周日，市场休市。周五(12月26日)国际黄金站上4540美元/盎司，创历史新高，尾盘最终报收 4533.34美元/盎司，涨幅1.19%，周线上涨4.49%。多重利好形成共振，为黄金2026年的持续走强筑牢根 基。 今日周日，市场休市。周五(12月26日)国际黄金站上4540美元/盎司，创历史新高，尾盘最终报收 4533.34美元/盎司，涨幅1.19%，周线上涨4.49%。多重利好形成共振，为黄金2026年的持续走强筑牢根 基。 【要闻速递】 2025年，黄金成为全球主要资产中表现最突出的品种之一，年内累计涨幅高达70%以上。而标普500指 数仅上涨约17%。 2025年，贵金属市场可谓占尽天时地利，但这也引出一个关键问题：其强劲的上涨趋势是否仍有足够动 力延续。今年以来，黄金屡创历史新高，主要驱动力来自避险资金流入，以及市场对美联储可能以激进 节奏重启降息的预期不断升温。 过去三个多月，黄金价格始终依托多头趋势线运行，依托这一趋势接连创下新高，成功站上4500美元/ 盎司关口。截至目前，市场尚未出现能从结构上扭转这一多头趋势的实质性空头行情，这条趋势线也成 为短期金价走势的核心技术参考。但值得注意的是 ...

Core Viewpoint - Silver has experienced a significant surge, outperforming gold and becoming the highest-gaining precious metal of the year, with a year-to-date increase of 174% [1][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - Last night, the precious metals market saw a broad rally, with COMEX silver futures rising by 11.15% to $79.68 per ounce, while COMEX gold futures increased by 1.31% to $4562 per ounce [3]. - The current market conditions have led to a notable increase in silver prices, driven by geopolitical tensions and expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [5]. Group 2: Geopolitical and Economic Factors - Geopolitical tensions, such as security cooperation between Nigeria and the U.S. and airstrikes by Saudi Arabia in Yemen, have heightened demand for safe-haven assets like gold and silver [5]. - Analysts suggest that the combination of low market liquidity at year-end and the impact of Trump's tariff policies has led to a significant migration of global precious metal inventories to the U.S., exacerbating supply shortages and fueling speculative trading [5]. Group 3: Supply and Demand Dynamics - A key indicator of physical silver shortages, the one-year silver swap rate minus U.S. rates, has plummeted to -7.18%, indicating that traders are willing to pay a premium for immediate delivery of physical silver [6]. - The current negative swap rate suggests a supply crunch, as traders are prioritizing immediate access to physical silver over future contracts, which typically incur storage and insurance costs [6]. Group 4: Historical Context and Risks - Historical precedents indicate that previous silver bull markets ended not due to natural supply-demand reversals but through regulatory interventions, such as increased margin requirements by exchanges [8]. - The recent increase in silver futures margin requirements by CME could signal potential market corrections if regulatory pressures continue to mount [8].

Core Viewpoint - The precious metals market has experienced a significant surge, with gold, silver, and platinum reaching historical highs, driven by macroeconomic concerns and increased demand for physical assets [2][11]. Group 1: Market Performance - Spot gold rose by 1.19%, reaching a peak of $4549.96 per ounce [2] - Spot silver surged by 10.47%, surpassing $79 per ounce, with a weekly increase of 18.31% and a year-to-date increase of 174.62% [9][11] - Spot platinum increased by 10.39%, hitting a maximum of $2475 per ounce [2] Group 2: Investor Behavior - There has been a notable increase in transactions, with one jewelry store reporting over 30 kilograms of silver bought back in a single morning [3] - A customer reportedly made a profit of 20,000 yuan by trading silver within a week, highlighting the volatility and potential for quick gains in the current market [3] - The demand for silver is described as frenzied, with significant orders being placed and a shortage of immediate availability [6] Group 3: Future Outlook - Analysts predict that precious metals will maintain an upward trend due to factors such as the politicization of the Federal Reserve, declining dollar credibility, and a potential silver supply crisis [12] - The ongoing geopolitical uncertainties and inflation expectations are expected to support gold's value, while silver may outperform due to industrial demand and supply constraints [13] - The market is anticipated to experience higher volatility, with the need for careful timing in trading strategies [13]

摘要今日周六，市场休市。周五(12月26日)受美联储降息预期以及加剧避险需求的地缘政治紧张局势提 振，现货黄金站上4540美元/盎司，创历史新高，尾盘最终报收4533.34美元/盎司，涨幅1.19%，周线上 涨4.49%。 今日周六，市场休市。周五(12月26日)受美联储降息预期以及加剧避险需求的地缘政治紧张局势提振， 现货黄金站上4540美元/盎司，创历史新高，尾盘最终报收4533.34美元/盎司，涨幅1.19%，周线上涨 4.49%。 【黄金价格展望与机构预测】 展望2026年，黄金市场面临着从急速上涨向稳定高原过渡的可能性，主要机构预测显示出一定的分散 性。 高盛在其基准情景中预计黄金价格将升至每盎司4900美元，强调央行需求和联储降息的双重驱动，并指 出如果私人投资者多元化进一步扩大，价格上行空间将更大。 摩根大通则持更乐观态度，预测2026年第四季度平均价格可达5055美元，并维持到2028年6000美元的长 期目标，该行假设投资者和央行需求将保持季度566吨的平均水平。 其他机构如美国银行和Metals Focus也认为5000美元关口在2026年可及，尽管涨幅可能较2025年放缓。 更保守的观点 ...