Fiscal Policy Overview - In 2025, China will implement a more proactive fiscal policy, increasing the fiscal deficit rate to 4.0%, up by 1 percentage point from the previous year[7] - The total fiscal deficit for 2025 is projected at 5.66 trillion yuan, an increase of 1.6 trillion yuan compared to 2024[7] Budgetary Performance in 2024 - The national general public budget revenue for 2024 was 21,970.21 billion yuan, achieving 98.1% of the budget, with a 1.3% increase from 2023[2] - Tax revenue decreased by 3.4% to 17,497.20 billion yuan, while non-tax revenue surged by 25.4% to 4,473.01 billion yuan[2] - General public budget expenditure reached 28,461.23 billion yuan, completing 99.7% of the budget, with a growth of 3.6%[3] Government Fund Budget Insights - Government fund budget revenue fell by 12.2% to 62,090.40 billion yuan, primarily due to a decline in land transfer income[4] - Total government fund budget expenditure was 101,477.82 billion yuan, completing 84.4% of the budget, with a slight increase of 0.2%[4] State-Owned Capital Management - State-owned capital operating budget revenue exceeded expectations at 6,782.88 billion yuan, achieving 114.5% of the budget, with a modest growth of 0.6%[5] - Expenditure in this budget decreased by 6.5% to 3,128.86 billion yuan[5] Social Insurance Fund Stability - Social insurance fund budget revenue was 118,944.70 billion yuan, surpassing the budget by 1.2%, with a growth of 5.2%[6] - Expenditure in this fund was 106,061.28 billion yuan, completing 99.3% of the budget, reflecting a 7% increase[6]

Core Viewpoint - In 2025, China will implement a more proactive fiscal policy, with a focus on enhancing resource allocation and precise funding to support economic recovery and growth [1][5]. Group 1: Fiscal Policy Implementation - The Shandong Provincial Finance Department aims to deepen the implementation of a more proactive fiscal policy, emphasizing resource coordination and precise funding to provide solid fiscal support for economic recovery [2][3]. - The fiscal policy will prioritize improving people's livelihoods, promoting consumption, and enhancing economic resilience, linking these aspects to boost living standards and create new economic growth points [2][6]. Group 2: Investment in People's Livelihoods - Shandong will increase basic livelihood investment, ensuring that the proportion of livelihood expenditure remains stable at around 80% [2][7]. - The province will enhance fiscal regulation effectiveness and provide strong support for consumption, including expanding the scope of policies for trade-in programs for consumer goods [2][7]. Group 3: Economic Resilience and Investment - Shandong will focus on developing new productive forces by supporting education, technology innovation, and green low-carbon initiatives to stimulate internal economic dynamics [3][8]. - The province will also aim to expand effective investment by leveraging government investment to attract social investment and enhance the efficiency of special bonds [3][8]. Group 4: Fiscal Reform Initiatives - The Shandong Provincial Finance Department plans to deepen fiscal and tax reforms, launching a series of signature reform outcomes unique to Shandong [4][9]. - Key reforms will include improving the modern budgeting system, enhancing budget management, and increasing financial support for major strategic tasks and basic livelihoods [4][9].

在2025年3月5日的江苏代表团审议和6日的联组会中，习近平主席强调经济大省要挑大梁并要求加强科 技创新和科技人才培育。江苏代表团审议方面，强调了深化改革与高水平开放、发展新质生产力、落实一体 化协同战略、促进共同富裕。相较去年新增了破除地方保护与市场分割、加强与京津冀和粤港澳等区域协 同、重点解决就业教育医疗等民生问题。 联组会方面，强调了深化教育综合改革、推动科技与人才良性互动、推进数字化战略与学习型社会。相 较2024年新增了建立科学教育评价体系、完善学校管理自主权、提升依法治教水平、推动"双减"政策持续深 化、实施基础学科和交叉学科突破计划、打造校企地联合创新平台、部署国家教育数字化战略、推动智慧教 育发展、构建终身学习体系等内容。 二、 "下力气做大做强国内大循环" 两会期间，李强总理参加了云南代表团审议、河北代表团审议和经济、农业界委员联组会，强调下力气 做大做强国内大循环。在云南代表团提出打造文旅康养融合的消费升级版、推进"绿电+先进制造业"绿色发 展、建设西南开放枢纽和巩固脱贫攻坚成果；在河北代表团要求深化京津冀产业协同创新、推动传统产业科 技赋能、加强雄安新区建设；在联组会上明确实施积极财政 ...

光刻机作为半导体设备中占比最大的 类 预计将继续保持强劲需求 年 全球 1 、 《 人形机器人，由外到内，智能革命》摘要 ■ 人形机器人由于其与人类形态和行为高度相似，能够在复杂环境中与人类协作，成为具身智能的理 想载体。 ■ 国产替代的趋势也日益明显，成本和供应链优势将逐步显现，未来国内品牌有望在全球市场上占据 更大份额。 ■ 随着任务需求的多样化，灵巧手和柔性皮肤等技术将成为机器人"手"的关键组成部分，推动精细化 和安全性的末端交互。 ■ 随着国产机器人硬件的不断升级和量产化，生产成本的快速降低使得国产品牌在市场竞争中逐渐具 备优势，预计会加速国产替代的趋势。 ■ 当前，机器人视觉技术由美国和日本厂商主导，然而，由于中国厂商能够在成本上具有明显优势， 预计未来中国厂商将在该领域崭露头角。 2、 《光刻机 自主可控大势所趋》摘要 ■ 光刻机的技术不断进步，尤其是在 EUV（极紫外）光刻技术 方面，随着芯片制程的不断缩小， EUV光刻机的需求和应用逐步增加。 ■ 根据瑞利准则，光刻机的分辨率越高，其能够清晰投影的最小图像尺寸就越小，从而支持更先进的 制程节点。 ■ 光刻机是一个高度精密的系统，主要由光源、光路 ...

今年的政府工作报告提出，实施更加积极的财政政策。统筹安排收入、债券等各类财政资 金，确保财政政策持续用力、更加给力。今年赤字率拟按4%左右安排、比上年提高1个百分 点，赤字规模5.66万亿元、比上年增加1.6万亿元。 具体如何发力，财政预算报告给出了更详细的答案。根据界面新闻的梳理，积极的财政政策 主要体现在四个方面：广义财政显著扩张、非税收入大幅下降、支出结构优化以及中央支出 显著提升。 财政部在预算报告中称，综合判断，国内外环境变化带来的影响将持续向财政传导，2025年 财政收支矛盾仍然突出，必须把困难挑战考虑得更充分一些，把政策举措准备得更周全一 些，为促进经济持续健康发展提供坚实保障。 广义财政显著扩张 根据预算报告，2025年拟安排财政预算赤字率4%左右，比上年提高1个百分点，赤字规模 5.66万亿元、比上年增加1.6万亿元。这里的赤字率是指狭义赤字率，即政府预算内的收支差 额和名义国内生产总值（GDP）之比。 此外，今年新增地方政府专项债规模为4.4万亿元，较上年增加5000亿元；发行1.3万亿元超 长期特别国债，较上年增加3000亿元；发行5000亿元特别国债，补充国有大行核心一级资 本。新增地 ...

金融数据前瞻来看，投放节奏因素叠加基数因素，我们预计2月人民币贷款增量在1万亿元以上、 社融增速小幅改善至8 . 2%左右。2月货币当局延续对流动性的精准投放，加之财政发力弥补了信贷 增长的趋缓，当月资金环境维持趋紧态势。展望后续而言，两会货币政策取向稳健，财政端定调积 极，下阶段央行流动性的指引方向、政府债的发力程度、信贷需求趋稳与供给端季末冲量间的博 弈，或为资金市场和信用市场的核心决定因素。3月初流动性环比有所改善，但仍需关注月末时点 的跨季情况。 ▍ 利率跟踪：2月资金利率延续偏紧，债券利率触底回升。 1）政策利率按兵不动。 2 0 2 5年2月，OMO与MLF利率未有调整。但两会货币当局"适度宽松"定 调不改，延续支持性的货币政策，年内总量或结构性降准降息可期，但节奏或取决于经济运行态 势、财政发力节奏、汇率与债市走势及银行负债端利率的配合情况。 2）资金利率总体中性，边际趋向均衡 。2月DR0 0 7平均利率2 . 0 3%，较上月上行1 0 b p s，同业存 单利率较MLF利率差距收窄2 0 b p s，短端流动性延续偏紧，下阶段虽外部环境仍有约束，但在置 换债资金回流与信贷投放趋稳下，流动性 ...

Development Stages of Special Bonds - Special bonds have undergone four main stages since their inception in 2015: exploration (2015-2018), innovation and expansion (2019-2021), transformation and regulation (2022-2024), and optimization and improvement (from late 2024) [3][4][6][18]. - In the innovation and expansion phase (2019-2021), the issuance of special bonds rapidly increased, with new quotas rising from CNY 1.35 trillion in 2018 to CNY 3.75 trillion in 2020 [25][26]. Current Characteristics and Usage - As of 2024, 40.5% of special bonds were allocated for new project construction, while 40.4% were used for debt replacement, and 19.2% for repaying maturing bonds [7]. - The proportion of special bonds used as project capital has been increasing, reaching 9.8% in 2024, with a policy cap of 30% [7]. Challenges and Issues - Special bonds have faced issues such as unclear positioning, with projects lacking revenue being funded by general debt, while high-revenue projects are left to market mechanisms [9]. - The allocation of special bond quotas often reflects the distribution of hidden debts rather than efficiency, which undermines the intended positive incentives [9]. Recommendations for Improvement - It is recommended to clarify the positioning of special bonds to ensure they are used for projects that can cover their own costs, thus preventing pressure on general public budgets [13]. - The distribution of quotas should prioritize high-quality projects in regions with population inflows and strong industrial bases, while using general debt for areas with declining populations [13].

重要提示：本材料不构成任何形式的要约、承诺或其他法律文件，亦非任何投资、法律或财务等方面的专业建议。过往业绩不预示 未来表现。投资须谨慎。 注：表中红字为《政府工作报告》公布的目标，其他为实际值，"-"表示未披露。 01 实际增长目标持平，财政赤字隐含名义增长改善 摘 要 1、中国2025年经济增长目标5%左右，高于年初大部分机构预测，财政赤字隐含名义增长4.9%， 显示官方认为广义物价将得到明显改善。 2、CPI目标从3%下调至2%，是政策目标从过往防通胀到提升物价水平的转变，具有积极意义。 3、财政支出力度与2020年应对新冠疫情冲击时相近，结构更优，可实现性更强。货币政策基调保 持宽松，但对降息偏谨慎，现阶段对汇率稳定和宏观审慎管理更加重视。 3月5日，李强总理在全国人大会议上做《政府工作报告》，提出中国政府对2025年经济社会发展的总体 要求和政策取向，主要指标目标如下表。《政府工作报告》是对中央经济工作会议所作部署的细化和落 地实施计划，此次公布的经济发展目标整体符合市场预期，具体来看有以下几点值得关注： 中国经济发展主要目标一览 | 科目(单位:亿元) | 2025年 | 2024年 | 2023 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese government has set a GDP growth target of around 5% for 2025, which is higher than most domestic and international forecasts, indicating a commitment to stabilize economic growth and boost market expectations [3][6]. Economic Growth Targets - The actual GDP target for 2025 is set at 141.5 trillion yuan, with a nominal GDP growth rate of 4.9%, which is an improvement compared to the previous year's nominal GDP growth of 4.23% [3][6]. - The consumer price index (CPI) target has been lowered from 3% to 2%, signaling a shift in policy focus from preventing inflation to promoting price stability [3][8]. Fiscal Policy - The total fiscal deficit for 2025 is projected at 5.66 trillion yuan, with a broad deficit rate of 8.4%, similar to the levels seen in 2020 during the COVID-19 pandemic response [3][9]. - The structure of fiscal spending is optimized, focusing on four key areas: investment construction, land reserve, acquisition of existing housing, and settling local government debts to enterprises [3][9]. Revenue and Budget - The target growth rate for general public budget revenue is set at 0.1%, indicating a more cautious approach compared to the previous year's 2.9% [3][10]. - The government expects improved realizability of budget revenues this year, particularly due to anticipated recovery in real estate sales [3][10]. Monetary Policy - The monetary policy remains moderately accommodative, with an emphasis on reducing social financing costs, although there is caution regarding broad interest rate cuts [3][12]. - The central bank has maintained a tight monetary market condition, focusing on the stability of the RMB exchange rate and the risks associated with low long-term interest rates [3][12].

南方财经全媒体集团全国两会报道组 作 者丨周潇枭 编 辑丨张星 3月5日，十四届全国人大三次会议开幕会举行，国务院总理李强作政府工作报告。 政府工作报告指出，2 0 2 5年经济增长预期目标为5%左右，既是稳就业、防风险、惠民生的需 要，也有经济增长潜力和有利条件支撑，并与中长期发展目标相衔接，突出迎难而上、奋发有 为的鲜明导向。 政府工作报告指出，要实施更加积极的财政政策，实施适度宽松的货币政策。政府工作报告还 对今年的重点工作进行部署，包括大力提振消费、提高投资效益，因地制宜发展新质生产力， 深入实施科教兴国战略，推动标志性改革举措加快落地，扩大高水平对外开放，有效防范化解 重点领域风险等。 完成5%左右的增长目标有哪些支撑条件？如何看待更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政 策组合？如何大力提振消费？如何提高投资效益？有哪些重点产业赛道值得关注？当前应推动 哪些重点改革事项落地？带着这些问题2 1世纪经济报道记者专访了中国宏观经济研究院院长 黄汉权。 黄汉权。资料图 以新质生产力为驱动的发展态势在逐步形成 《2 1世纪》 ：2 0 2 4年我国G D P规模接近1 3 5万亿元，同比增长5 %。如何看待中 ...