1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The weekly economic index rebounded. The China Weekly Economic Index (WEI) last week was 5.3%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous value. The production sub - index of WEI decreased, while the demand sub - index and the supply - demand gap increased [1]. - Production declined. The 4 - week moving average year - on - year of rebar production and the daily coal consumption of major coastal power plants decreased, and the blast furnace operating rate dropped slightly, while the operating rate of automobile semi - steel tires increased [1]. - High - frequency infrastructure indicators declined. The cement shipping rate and cement mill operating rate decreased, while the asphalt plant operating rate increased [1]. - The decline in commercial housing sales narrowed. The 4 - week moving average year - on - year of the sales area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium - sized cities improved, but the 4 - week moving average year - on - year of the land occupation area of land transactions in 100 large - and medium - sized cities decreased [2]. - Consumption rebounded. The year - on - year daily retail sales of passenger cars increased significantly, and the 4 - week moving average year - on - year of the subway passenger volume in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen also increased, while the 4 - week moving average year - on - year of movie box office and domestic flight execution numbers decreased [2]. - Exports rebounded. South Korea's export year - on - year in early June increased, and the 4 - week moving average year - on - year of the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) and the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) also improved [2]. - Pork prices declined. The 4 - week moving average year - on - year of the average wholesale price of pork decreased, while the 4 - week moving average year - on - year of the 200 - index of agricultural product wholesale prices and the average wholesale price of 28 key monitored vegetables increased [3]. - Industrial product prices declined. The 4 - week moving average year - on - year of the Nanhua Composite Index and Brent crude oil spot price increased slightly, while the 4 - week moving average year - on - year of rebar price, Qinhuangdao Port thermal coal closing price, and cement price index decreased [3]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Economic Index - The China Weekly Economic Index (WEI) last week was 5.3%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous value. The WEI production sub - index was 4.3%, down 0.1 percentage points from the previous value; the WEI demand sub - index was 5.9%, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous value; the supply - demand gap was 1.6%, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous value [1]. 3.2 Production - The 4 - week moving average year - on - year of rebar production was - 6.1%, down 1.9 percentage points from the previous value. The blast furnace operating rate was 83.4%, down 0.1 percentage points from the previous value. The operating rate of automobile semi - steel tires was 78.0%, up 4.1 percentage points from the previous value. The 4 - week moving average year - on - year of the daily coal consumption of major coastal power plants was - 2.1%, down 1.8 percentage points from the previous value [1]. 3.3 Infrastructure - The cement shipping rate was 41.3%, down 0.1 percentage points from the previous value. The cement mill operating rate was 39.8%, down 0.2 percentage points from the previous value. The asphalt plant operating rate was 31.5%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous value [1]. 3.4 Real Estate - The 4 - week moving average year - on - year of the sales area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium - sized cities was - 4.7%, up 3.3 percentage points from the previous value. The 4 - week moving average year - on - year of the land occupation area of land transactions in 100 large - and medium - sized cities was - 10.2%, down 11.5 percentage points from the previous value [2]. 3.5 Consumption - The year - on - year daily retail sales of passenger cars was 19.0%, up 13.0 percentage points from the previous value. The 4 - week moving average year - on - year of movie box office was - 21.2%, down 3.8 percentage points from the previous value. The 4 - week moving average year - on - year of domestic flight execution numbers was 2.2%, down 0.6 percentage points from the previous value. The 4 - week moving average year - on - year of the subway passenger volume in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen was 1.4%, up 1.3 percentage points from the previous value [2]. 3.6 Exports - South Korea's export year - on - year in early June was 5.4%, up 5.3 percentage points from late May. The 4 - week moving average year - on - year of the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) was - 35.1%, up 0.5 percentage points from the previous value. The 4 - week moving average year - on - year of the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) was - 18.3%, up 7.0 percentage points from the previous value [2]. 3.7 CPI - The 4 - week moving average year - on - year of the 200 - index of agricultural product wholesale prices was - 1.6%, up 0.8 percentage points from the previous value. The 4 - week moving average year - on - year of the average wholesale price of pork was - 9.6%, down 4.8 percentage points from the previous value. The 4 - week moving average year - on - year of the average wholesale price of 28 key monitored vegetables was - 3.6%, up 2.5 percentage points from the previous value [3]. 3.8 PPI - The 4 - week moving average year - on - year of the Nanhua Composite Index was - 11.6%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous value. The 4 - week moving average year - on - year of Brent crude oil spot price was - 16.4%, up 1.9 percentage points from the previous value. The 4 - week moving average year - on - year of rebar price was - 14.7%, down 0.1 percentage points from the previous value. The 4 - week moving average year - on - year of Qinhuangdao Port thermal coal closing price was - 30.3%, down 0.5 percentage points from the previous value. The 4 - week moving average year - on - year of the cement price index was 1.5%, down 3.2 percentage points from the previous value [3].

欧元区5月CPI年率及月率终值将于十分钟后公布。 ...

英国5月CPI同比 3.4%，预期 3.3%，前值 3.5%。 ...

Key Points - The article outlines significant financial data and events to be monitored on June 18, 2025, including the Lujiazui Forum in Shanghai and various economic indicators from Canada, the US, and the Eurozone [1]. Group 1: Economic Events - The Lujiazui Forum will be held in Shanghai, which is a key event for financial discussions [1]. - The Bank of Canada will release the minutes from its monetary policy meeting at 01:30 [1]. - The US will report API crude oil inventories for the week ending June 13 at 04:30 [1]. - The UK will release its May Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Retail Price Index (RPI) at 14:00 [1]. - The Eurozone will publish its adjusted current account for April at 16:00, along with the final CPI year-on-year and month-on-month values for May at 17:00 [1]. - The US will report initial jobless claims for the week ending June 14 and new housing starts for May at 20:30 [1]. - The US will also release building permit totals for May at the same time [1]. - EIA crude oil inventories and strategic petroleum reserve data will be published at 22:30 [1]. - The Bank of Canada Governor Macklem will give a speech at 23:15 [1]. - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will announce its interest rate decision and economic projections at 02:00 the following day [1]. - Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will hold a monetary policy press conference at 02:30 [1].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" [1] Core Viewpoints - In May 2025, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 41,326 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 6.4%, exceeding the consensus expectation of 4.85% [10][12] - Urban retail sales growth has outpaced rural markets for three consecutive months, with urban sales increasing by 6.5% and rural sales by 5.4% in May [12] - Offline retail performance is stronger than online, with offline retail sales growing by 10.50% year-on-year in May, while online sales saw a decline of 4.25% [15][24] Summary by Sections Overall Retail Sales - The total retail sales in May 2025 grew by 6.4% year-on-year, reaching 41,326 billion yuan, which is higher than the expected growth rate [10][12] Regional Performance - Urban retail sales amounted to 36,057 billion yuan, growing by 6.5%, while rural retail sales were 5,269 billion yuan, with a growth of 5.4% [12] Channel Performance - Offline retail sales increased by 10.50% year-on-year, while online retail sales decreased by 4.25% in May [15] Category Performance - The restaurant sector saw stable growth, with a total revenue of 4,578 billion yuan, up 5.9% year-on-year. The total retail sales of goods reached 36,748 billion yuan, growing by 6.5% [24] - Essential and discretionary categories showed strong performance, with year-on-year growth rates of 11.38% for essentials and 7.87% for discretionary items in May [30][31] Price Trends - Both CPI and PPI showed a year-on-year decline, with CPI at -0.1% and PPI at -3.3% in May [37][39] Employment Situation - The urban unemployment rate in May 2025 was 5.0%, marking a continuous decline for three months [46][48] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on high-end liquor and regional leaders in the liquor industry due to competitive dynamics. It also recommends attention to the restaurant supply chain as consumer spending in dining is expected to recover [54]

Economic Overview - In May, major economic indicators such as industrial output, services, consumption, and investment continued to grow, with external trade maintaining stable growth despite pressures [1][2] - The retail sales of consumer goods increased by 6.4% year-on-year in May, accelerating by 1.3 percentage points from the previous month [2] - The service industry production index rose by 6.2% year-on-year, up by 0.2 percentage points from April [2] Consumption and Investment - Policies promoting consumption have effectively released domestic consumption potential, with significant growth in retail sales of home appliances and other categories [2] - Investment in equipment and tools grew by 17.3% from January to May, contributing 63.6% to overall investment growth [2] - The production of new energy vehicles, tablets, and electric bicycles saw substantial increases in May, with growth rates of 31.7%, 30.9%, and 20.5% respectively [2] Industrial Performance - The industrial added value increased by 5.8% year-on-year in May, with manufacturing showing resilience despite a slight slowdown [4] - Manufacturing investment rose by 8.5% year-on-year from January to May, although this was a slight decrease from the previous period [4] - The equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing sectors contributed significantly to industrial production, with growth rates of 9% and 8.6% respectively [4][5] Foreign Trade - In May, the total value of imports and exports grew by 2.7%, with exports increasing by 6.3% [6] - Despite a decline in trade with the US, trade with ASEAN, the EU, and Belt and Road countries continued to grow [6] - The import of goods decreased by 2.1% in May, influenced by global trade uncertainties and falling international commodity prices [7] Price Trends - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) fell by 0.1% year-on-year in May, while the core CPI rose by 0.6% [8][9] - The decline in CPI was primarily driven by lower international energy prices and increased supply of food products [8] - The core CPI's increase indicates a gradual recovery in domestic demand and price levels [9] Real Estate Market - The real estate market is showing signs of stabilization, with a narrowing decline in housing prices across major cities [10][11] - New housing sales area and sales value saw a year-on-year decline of 2.9% and 3.8% respectively from January to May [11] - The inventory of unsold properties decreased, indicating a potential recovery in market confidence [11] Economic Outlook - The overall economic performance in the first five months suggests a stable growth trajectory, with expectations for the GDP to maintain a steady pace [12] - Predictions for the second quarter indicate that various projects and infrastructure investments may boost domestic demand [12]

Economic Overview - In May, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) experienced a slight year-on-year decline of 0.1% and a month-on-month decrease of 0.2%, indicating stable economic performance despite the drop [1][2] - The decline in CPI was primarily influenced by international input factors and falling food prices, with energy prices being a significant contributor [1][2] Energy Prices - International energy prices decreased, leading to a reduction in domestic prices for gasoline and related consumer goods. The energy prices in the CPI fell by 1.7% month-on-month, contributing approximately 0.13 percentage points to the overall CPI decline [1] - Year-on-year, energy prices dropped by 6.1%, impacting the CPI by about 0.47 percentage points [1] Food Prices - The availability of fresh food items, such as vegetables and poultry, increased, resulting in a decline in food prices. Month-on-month, food prices fell by 0.2%, contributing around 0.04 percentage points to the CPI decrease [2] - Year-on-year, food prices decreased by 0.4%, with a more significant decline compared to the previous month [2] Core CPI and Industrial Prices - The core CPI, which excludes food and energy, rose by 0.6% year-on-year, reflecting a gradual strengthening of domestic demand [2][3] - Prices of industrial consumer goods, excluding energy, also increased by 0.6% year-on-year, with notable price rises in entertainment durable goods like mobile phones and computers, which saw a 1.8% increase [2] Service Prices - Service prices increased by 0.5% year-on-year, driven by holiday demand and a rise in educational and cultural services. Notable increases included airfare and tourism prices, which rose by 1.2% and 0.9%, respectively [3] - Prices for household and educational services also saw increases of 1.7% and 1.2% [3] Policy Implications - The current price situation requires a comprehensive perspective, recognizing the positive effects of policies aimed at expanding domestic demand and promoting reasonable price recovery [3] - Future strategies should focus on balancing domestic demand expansion with supply-side structural reforms to improve market price order and enhance supply-demand relationships [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that the effects of previous policies are gradually diminishing, leading to a noticeable decline in real estate sales in China [2] - In the first week of June, the total transaction area of commercial housing in 30 major cities was 20.6 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 17.2%, with significant declines in first- and second-tier cities [2] - The average daily sales area of second-hand houses in 11 sample cities was 19.0 million square meters, down from 25.6 million square meters, although the transaction share of second-hand houses has rebounded [2] Group 2 - Domestic price pressures continue, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in May showing a month-on-month decrease of 0.2% and a year-on-year decrease of 0.1%, primarily influenced by falling energy prices [3][4] - Energy prices fell by 1.7% month-on-month in May, with gasoline prices decreasing by 3.8% [3] - Agricultural product prices remained stable with a slight decline, with month-on-month decreases ranging from 0.3% to 1.0% [5] Group 3 - In May, automobile retail sales increased by 13% year-on-year and 10% month-on-month, while wholesale sales rose by 14% year-on-year and 6% month-on-month, indicating resilience in the automotive market [9] - The retail sales of new energy vehicles saw a remarkable year-on-year growth of 30% and a month-on-month growth of 14%, with a market penetration rate of 53.5% [10] - Despite maintaining sales resilience, automobile prices showed weakness, with an overall market discount rate of approximately 24.8% in May, up from 23.7% in April [10] Group 4 - The funding chain for construction projects has shown improvement, with the funding availability rate for sample construction sites reaching 59.13% as of June 3, marking a week-on-week increase of 0.26 percentage points [11][14] - Non-residential construction projects saw an increase of 0.53 percentage points, while residential construction projects experienced a decrease of 0.95 percentage points [14] - The improvement in funding availability aligns with some upstream production data, such as a cement clinker capacity utilization rate of 61.0% and an increase in the operating rate of asphalt plants to 31.3% [14]

Group 1: Inflation Data Overview - In May 2025, the CPI year-on-year was -0.1%, unchanged from the previous month, while the PPI year-on-year was -3.3%, down from -2.7%[2][28] - The month-on-month CPI shifted from positive to negative, decreasing by 0.2% compared to the previous month[3][18] - The core CPI year-on-year increased to 0.6%, up from 0.5% in the previous month, indicating a slight recovery[5][18] Group 2: Key Influencing Factors - The decline in CPI was primarily driven by a 1.7% drop in energy prices, which accounted for approximately 70% of the total CPI decrease[4][18] - Seasonal increases in vegetable supply led to a 5.9% drop in fresh vegetable prices, contributing to the overall decline in CPI[5][18] - Core CPI's increase was supported by rising gold prices, a narrowing decline in energy prices, and increased transportation rental fees due to holiday effects[5][18] Group 3: Future Projections - If pork prices rise unexpectedly to 40 CNY per kilogram and oil prices also increase, the CPI could potentially reach an annual growth of 0.2% in 2025[3][8] - The core CPI is expected to stabilize around 0.2% for the year if utility prices rise again, indicating a potential recovery in consumer prices[9][8] - The PPI is anticipated to remain under pressure in June 2025, influenced by international input factors and domestic energy price declines[12][14]

Economic Growth Indicators - The Guosen High-Frequency Macro Diffusion Index A turned positive this week, indicating an improvement in economic growth momentum[1] - The standardized Index B increased by 0.14, outperforming historical averages, suggesting a recovery in domestic economic growth[1] - Real estate sector sentiment improved, while investment sentiment declined, and consumption sentiment remained stable[1] Price Trends - Food prices are expected to decrease by approximately 0.5% month-on-month in June, while non-food prices are projected to remain stable, leading to an overall CPI decrease of about 0.1%[2] - The PPI is anticipated to decline by around 0.3% month-on-month in June, with a year-on-year drop to -3.4%[2] Asset Price Predictions - Current domestic interest rates are low, while the Shanghai Composite Index is high, indicating a potential upward movement in the ten-year government bond yield and a downward trend in the Shanghai Composite Index next week[1][19] - The predicted ten-year government bond yield for the week of June 20, 2025, is 2.23%, while the Shanghai Composite Index is forecasted to be 3,098.20[20] Key Economic Data - Fixed asset investment cumulative year-on-year growth stands at 4.00%[3] - Retail sales total for the month shows a year-on-year increase of 5.10%[3] - Exports for the month have a year-on-year growth of 4.80%[3] - M2 money supply growth is recorded at 7.90%[3]