Core Viewpoint - The A-share market experienced fluctuations this week, with small-cap stocks performing relatively well while the STAR 50 index saw a decline of 3.19% for the week. The AI hardware sector faced significant adjustments, indicating a potential shift in market leadership towards AI applications as November begins [1][2]. Market Performance - The AI hardware sector's sharp decline on Friday was unexpected for many investors, marking a notable day of losses for the leading sector of the current bull market [1][2]. - Historical trends suggest that the last few days of the third-quarter earnings report period often lead to market adjustments and significant volatility in leading sectors [2]. Sector Analysis - Some core stocks in the AI hardware sector did not meet investor expectations, particularly in the case of CPO [2]. - Despite the recent downturn, the overall impact on the market is expected to be short-term, with mid-term performance dependent on other sectors [2]. November Outlook - The Shanghai Composite Index has broken out of its previous trading range, indicating a potential upward trend in early November [2]. - Historical data from 2019 to 2024 shows that five out of six years experienced a rebound at the beginning of November, with only one instance of a minor decline of 1.55% [4]. Support Levels - The market is expected to find support around 3930 points, with two key support levels identified: the high point of 3936 from October 9 and the gap from October 24 [4][5]. AI Hardware Sector Sentiment - The current sentiment in the AI hardware sector is negative, with reports indicating that institutional investors' technology positions have surpassed 40% and warnings about potential overvaluation in the TMT sector [6][7]. - The lack of strong performance from core stocks, such as Nvidia's $5 trillion market cap not boosting A-share AI hardware stocks, has contributed to the sector's decline [6]. AI Applications Sector - In contrast to the AI hardware sector, the AI applications sector (including media, entertainment, and software services) has begun to show strength, suggesting that market funds are still focused on AI as a primary theme [9]. - Key stocks like Kingsoft Office and 360 have performed well, serving as indicators for the potential of a sustained rally in the AI applications sector [9][10]. Year-End Market Characteristics - Historically, entering November often leads to a period of performance vacuum in the market, with active funds seeking to create speculative stocks [11]. - Potential themes for speculative stocks include zodiac-related concepts, Hainan free trade zone topics, and emerging hotspots [12]. Pharmaceutical and Liquor Sectors - The pharmaceutical sector, particularly innovative drugs, may be more appealing to market funds compared to liquor, especially following recent U.S.-China trade discussions [15]. - The innovative drug sector index has recently broken through a month-long consolidation, which could boost confidence in the sector [16].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The oil price is expected to continue oscillating. The uncertainty in the crude oil market lies in the supply - side structural contradictions caused by sanctions, but during the current off - season of demand, the overall conflict is not obvious, and the impact on prices is relatively mild [1]. - The absolute prices of fuel oil (FU and LU), asphalt (BU), polyester, rubber, methanol, polyolefins, and polyvinyl chloride are all expected to oscillate, with attention paid to the fluctuations of oil prices under the influence of macro - factors [3][5][6]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Thursday, the WTI December contract rose 0.09 dollars to 60.57 dollars/barrel (0.15% increase), the Brent December contract rose 0.08 dollars to 65.00 dollars/barrel (0.12% increase), and the SC2512 closed at 461.4 yuan/barrel, down 1.1 yuan/barrel (0.28% decrease). The meeting between Chinese and US leaders and trade achievements have positive impacts, but sanctions on Russian producers and potential OPEC+ production increase add uncertainties [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: On Thursday, the main contract of high - sulfur fuel oil (FU2601) fell 1.43% to 2751 yuan/ton, and the main contract of low - sulfur fuel oil (LU2601) rose 0.62% to 3255 yuan/ton. The Asian low - sulfur market structure has weakened due to weak downstream demand and sufficient supply, while the high - sulfur market is expected to remain stable [3]. - **Asphalt**: On Thursday, the main contract of asphalt (BU2601) fell 0.4% to 3254 yuan/ton. The supply pressure will ease in early November, and there are still construction rush expectations in some markets [3]. - **Polyester**: TA601 closed at 4570 yuan/ton, down 1.42%; EG2601 closed at 4032 yuan/ton, down 1.66%. The cost support of PX and TA has weakened, and the production and sales of polyester yarn are weak. There is still a pressure of inventory accumulation for EG in the fourth quarter [5]. - **Rubber**: On Thursday, the main contract of natural rubber (RU2601) fell 225 yuan/ton to 15400 yuan/ton, and the main contract of 20 - number rubber (NR) fell 195 yuan/ton to 12525 yuan/ton. The raw material prices of rubber are firm, demand is okay, and the postponement of tariff increase may improve demand expectations [5]. - **Methanol**: The supply in the domestic market has recovered to a high level, and overseas Iranian plants will be restricted by winter gas rationing. Although the arrival volume has decreased due to sanctions, the short - term port supply is still relatively large, and methanol is expected to oscillate [6]. - **Polyolefins**: The short - term production will remain at a high level, and the marginal increase in demand will gradually decline. The short - term rebound of crude oil supports the valuation, but the fundamental driving force is weakening, and polyolefin prices are expected to enter an oscillatory phase [6]. - **Polyvinyl Chloride**: The supply remains at a high - level oscillation, domestic demand has slowed down, and exports are expected to be weak due to Indian anti - dumping policies and Sino - US trade frictions. The price has a demand for phased repair, but the rebound height is limited under high - inventory pressure [8]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The table shows the spot prices, futures prices, basis, basis rates, and their changes of various energy and chemical products on October 30 and 29, 2025, as well as the quantiles of the latest basis rates in historical data [10]. 3.3 Market News - The meeting between Chinese President Xi Jinping and US President Donald Trump in Busan, South Korea, and the positive results of Sino - US economic and trade consultations have alleviated concerns about the decline in economic activities caused by tariffs and trade wars [13]. - Some Indian refiners have suspended purchasing Russian oil after the US blacklisted two major Russian producers last week, but Indian Oil said it would "never stop" buying Russian crude. Traders are closely watching the next moves of Russian oil buyers [13]. 3.4 Chart Analysis - **4.1 Main Contract Prices**: There are charts showing the closing prices of main contracts of various energy and chemical products from 2021 - 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, etc. [15][16][17]. - **4.2 Main Contract Basis**: There are charts presenting the basis of main contracts of various products such as crude oil, fuel oil, etc., over different time periods [33][38][40]. - **4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads**: There are charts showing the spreads between different contracts of products like fuel oil, asphalt, etc. [48][50][53]. - **4.4 Inter - variety Spreads**: There are charts depicting the spreads between different varieties such as crude oil internal and external markets, fuel oil high - and low - sulfur spreads, etc. [63][66][71]. - **4.5 Production Profits**: There are charts showing the production profits of products like LLDPE and PP [72]. 3.5 Team Member Introduction - The research team members include Zhong Meiyan (Assistant Director and Energy - Chemical Director), Du Bingqin (Analyst for Crude Oil, etc.), Di Yilin (Analyst for Natural Rubber, etc.), and Peng Haibo (Analyst for Methanol, etc.), with their respective educational backgrounds, honors, and professional capabilities introduced [77][78][79]. 3.6 Contact Information - The company is located at Unit 703, 6th Floor, No. 729 Yanggao South Road, China (Shanghai) Pilot Free Trade Zone. The company's phone number is 021 - 80212222, fax is 021 - 80212200, and the customer service hotline is 400 - 700 - 7979, with a postal code of 200127 [82].

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry or Company Involved - The conference call primarily discusses the impact of the recent US-China trade negotiations on various industries, including technology, electronics, textiles, and shipping. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **US-China Trade Negotiation Outcomes** The negotiations resulted in the suspension of new restrictions and the cancellation of the 10% tariff on fentanyl, which is expected to stabilize US-China relations and positively impact the Chinese economy [1][5][8]. 2. **Impact on Chinese Exports** A potential 10% reduction in US tariffs could lower the effective tariff rate on Chinese goods to around 28%, which would directly boost Chinese exports to the US and enhance overall export growth by approximately one percentage point [1][3][4]. 3. **Technology Sector Benefits** The negotiations are favorable for the technology sector, particularly with the expected cancellation of the 10% fentanyl tariff on electronic products, which would stimulate demand and alleviate valuation pressures on the electronics sector [1][6][7]. 4. **Market Sentiment and Stock Valuation** The outcomes of the negotiations have slightly exceeded market expectations, leading to a recovery in stock valuations, particularly in the technology and electronics sectors. Investor sentiment has improved, creating potential investment opportunities [1][8][9]. 5. **Short-term Market Trends** While the trade negotiation results are not expected to alter the current market trend significantly, there are concerns about overheating in certain sectors, particularly TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications), which may lead to market volatility if new catalysts do not emerge [1][10]. 6. **Recommendations for Sector Allocation** It is suggested to shift towards a more balanced allocation strategy by focusing on sectors such as lithium batteries, non-ferrous metals, and consumer electronics, while also considering opportunities in overseas markets like power grid equipment and commercial vehicles [1][11][12]. 7. **Color on the Non-ferrous Metals Sector** The cancellation of tariffs is expected to lower global trade friction costs and boost demand for non-ferrous metals, marking the beginning of a prolonged bull market for metals like copper, aluminum, and rare earth elements [1][13]. 8. **Shipping Industry Implications** The trade agreement is anticipated to benefit the shipping industry, particularly companies like China COSCO Shipping, due to increased demand for shipping services between China and the US [1][15][16]. 9. **Textile and Apparel Industry Effects** The US remains a significant market for Chinese textiles and apparel, and the easing of trade tensions could improve production utilization rates and profitability in this sector [1][20][23]. 10. **Home Appliance Sector Outlook** The reduction in tariff pressure is expected to positively impact the home appliance sector, particularly for companies with high export ratios to North America, aiding in the recovery of their profit margins [1][21][22]. Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - The negotiations have also led to a strategic pause in the implementation of export controls on rare earth products, which underscores China's significant role in the global rare earth supply chain [1][14]. - The overall sentiment in the market remains cautiously optimistic, with expectations of a continued recovery in various sectors as trade relations stabilize [1][9].

Group 1: Trade Negotiation Outcomes - The U.S. will reduce the fentanyl tariff by 10 percentage points, while China will lower retaliatory tariffs on U.S. agricultural products (such as soybeans) and energy[5] - Both sides will suspend the 24% reciprocal tariffs and the 50% export control measures for one year[5] - Maritime, logistics, and shipbuilding sanctions will also be paused for one year[6] Group 2: Market Implications - The outcomes align with market expectations and previous forecasts regarding rare earth controls and soybean purchases in exchange for tariff reductions[7] - After the tariff reductions, China's tariffs are now on par with Southeast Asia, only 5 percentage points higher than those of Europe and Japan, which is marginally beneficial for exports[7] Group 3: Future Developments - Tariff disputes are expected to evolve, with less likelihood of comprehensive increases in the future, and the fentanyl tariff may continue to be eliminated in subsequent negotiations[8] - Despite recent U.S. retreats in trade confrontations, ongoing competition suggests that conflicts may persist, particularly in electronics, new energy, and pharmaceuticals[8] Group 4: Risk Factors - There are risks of actual execution falling short of expectations, potential policy reversals, and changes in import-export policies[12]

Group 1 - The U.S. will cancel the 10% "fentanyl tariff" on Chinese goods, including those from Hong Kong and Macau, while the 24% reciprocal tariff on Chinese goods will remain suspended for another year [1] - China will adjust its countermeasures regarding the tariffs imposed by the U.S. [2] - Both parties have agreed to continue extending certain tariff exclusion measures [2]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. will suspend its Section 301 investigation measures against China's maritime, logistics, and shipbuilding industries for one year, and in response, China will also suspend its countermeasures against the U.S. for the same duration [1]. Group 1 - The U.S. and China have achieved positive results in their economic and trade consultations in Kuala Lumpur, demonstrating that dialogue and cooperation can lead to problem-solving [1]. - The suspension of measures by both sides is expected to inject more certainty and stability into U.S.-China economic cooperation and the global economy [1].

Core Points - The US and China reached a consensus during the Kuala Lumpur economic and trade consultations, with the US agreeing to suspend its Section 301 investigation measures against China's maritime, logistics, and shipbuilding industries for one year [1] - In response to the US suspension of measures, China will also pause its countermeasures against the US for one year [1] Summary by Category Economic Impact - The suspension of the US investigation measures is expected to positively impact the maritime, logistics, and shipbuilding sectors in China, providing a temporary relief from trade tensions [1] Bilateral Relations - The agreement reflects a willingness from both sides to engage in dialogue and find common ground, potentially easing ongoing trade disputes [1]

Group 1: Market Information - The closing prices of CF01, CF05, and CF09 contracts were 13620, 13625, and 13780 respectively, with a rise of 55 each; CY01 and CY05 contracts closed at 19865 and 19775, up 100 and 25 respectively, while CY09 remained at 0 [2]. - The trading volume of CF01 contract was 185,465 hands, an increase of 63550, and the open - interest was 578,488, a decrease of 596 [2]. - CCIndex3128B price was 14840 yuan/ton, up 7; Cot A was 75.95 cents/pound [2]. - The 1 - month to 5 - month spread of cotton was - 5, unchanged; the 1 - month to 5 - month spread of棉纱 was 90, up 75 [2]. Group 2: Market News and Views Cotton Market - On October 29, 2025, the road transportation price index of Xinjiang - outbound cotton was 0.1803 yuan/ton·km, remaining flat, and it's expected to fluctuate upward in the short term [4]. - As of October 27, 2025, the cotton picking progress in Xinjiang was about 82.8%, with different progress in southern, northern, and eastern Xinjiang, and the picking is expected to end soon [4]. - In July 2025, the EU's clothing import value was $20.269 billion, up 18.6% year - on - year and 22.45% month - on - month [5]. - The supply - side acquisition is at its peak with stable prices around 6.2 yuan/kg, and the demand - side changes little. After the Sino - US economic and trade consultations, Zhengzhou cotton is expected to be slightly stronger in the short term [6]. Trading Strategies - Unilateral: US cotton is likely to fluctuate, and Zhengzhou cotton is expected to be slightly stronger [7]. - Arbitrage: Wait and see [8]. - Options: Wait and see [9]. Cotton Yarn Industry - The Zhengzhou cotton futures fluctuated at night, with obvious hedging pressure. The cotton yarn market had a tepid transaction, with stable prices, weakening downstream demand, and small and urgent orders [11]. - The cotton grey fabric market was dull, with smooth sales at cost, large losses, and difficulty in order connection [11]. Group 3: Options - On October 28, 2025, the closing price of CF601C13400.CZC was 240, down 10.4%; the closing price of CF601P13000.CZC was 29, down 63.8%; the closing price of CF601P12400.CZC was 8, down 85.2% [13]. - The 120 - day HV of cotton was 8.0835, slightly lower than the previous day. The implied volatilities of CF601 - C - 13400, CF601 - P - 13000, and CF601 - P - 12400 were 7.5%, 10%, and 13.5% respectively [13]. - The PCR of the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton was 0.7379 for open - interest and 0.6827 for trading volume, and both call and put trading volumes decreased [14]. - Option strategy: Wait and see [15]. Group 4: Related Attachments - There are eight figures including the 1% tariff price difference between domestic and foreign cotton markets, the 1 - month, 5 - month, and 9 - month basis of cotton, CY05 - CF05 and CY01 - CF01 spreads, and CF9 - 1, CF5 - 9 spreads [16][20][26][28].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The long - term upward logic of steel prices remains unchanged under the background of a gradually loosening macro - environment, but the real demand for steel is still weak in the short term and is difficult to improve substantially. Attention should be paid to the impact of Sino - US talks and overseas macro - environment changes on market sentiment [2]. - The iron ore market is currently weak in reality, with the overall market in a tug - of - war situation, and the ore price will fluctuate [5]. - For the black sector, it is still not pessimistic. It is considered more cost - effective to look for callback positions to do rebounds rather than continue to short. The subsequent height after the rebound needs further observation [9]. - Industrial silicon is subject to real - world constraints and is likely to fluctuate with the commodity environment, with short - term consolidation [13]. - The supply - demand pattern of polysilicon may improve, but the short - term de - stocking amplitude is expected to be limited. Pay attention to the actual implementation of relevant news [15]. - The glass futures price is expected to maintain a wide - range volatile trend in the short term due to the interweaving of long and short factors [18]. - The soda ash price is expected to continue the narrow - range consolidation pattern in the short term, and attention should be paid to changes in device operation and downstream procurement rhythm [20]. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel Market Information - The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3091 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan/ton (- 0.29%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts decreased by 3058 tons, and the main contract positions decreased by 22644 lots. The Tianjin and Shanghai spot prices increased by 10 yuan/ton [1]. - The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3305 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan/ton (0.181%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts decreased by 3296 tons, and the main contract positions decreased by 8933 lots. The Le Cong and Shanghai spot prices increased by 10 yuan/ton [1]. Strategy Viewpoints - The supply and demand of rebar both increased, and the inventory continued to decline, showing a neutral performance. The output of hot - rolled coils slightly decreased, the demand improved marginally, the inventory was still at a high level, but the de - stocking process accelerated, and the inventory contradiction was slightly alleviated. The profitability of steel mills has significantly declined recently, and the molten iron output has significantly decreased, reducing the supply - side pressure [2]. Iron Ore Market Information - The main contract of iron ore (I2601) closed at 792.50 yuan/ton, with a change of + 0.76% (+ 6.00), and the positions changed by - 9902 lots to 54.89 million lots. The weighted positions were 92.41 million lots. The spot price of PB powder at Qingdao Port was 796 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 54.15 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 6.40% [4]. Strategy Viewpoints - In terms of supply, the overseas iron ore shipment volume continued to increase month - on - month in the latest period and was at a high level in the same period. In terms of demand, the daily average molten iron output dropped below 240,000 tons. The port inventory continued to increase, and the steel mill inventory slightly increased. Overall, the iron ore price is under pressure, and the ore price will fluctuate [5]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon Market Information - On October 28, the main contract of manganese silicon (SM601) closed down 0.21% at 5790 yuan/ton. The spot price in Tianjin was 5720 yuan/ton, with a basis of 120 yuan/ton. The main contract of ferrosilicon (SF601) closed flat at 5564 yuan/ton. The spot price in Tianjin was 5650 yuan/ton, with a basis of 86 yuan/ton [7]. Strategy Viewpoints - There are still supply - constraint expectations for ferroalloys. The current situation of steel mills is gradually becoming obvious, and there is a risk of "negative feedback". For the black sector, it is not pessimistic. Manganese silicon may follow the black - sector market, and its potential driving force may come from the manganese ore end [8][9]. Industrial Silicon Market Information - The closing price of the main contract of industrial silicon (SI2601) was 8955 yuan/ton, with a change of - 0.11% (- 10). The weighted contract positions changed by - 1744 lots to 433,386 lots. The spot price of 553 in East China was 9300 yuan/ton, and the basis of the main contract was 345 yuan/ton; the spot price of 421 was 9650 yuan/ton, and the basis of the main contract was - 105 yuan/ton [11]. Strategy Viewpoints - The supply - side pressure of industrial silicon continues, and the demand support weakens. The cost provides a bottom - support effect. It is easy to fluctuate with the commodity environment and will consolidate in the short term [13]. Polysilicon Market Information - The closing price of the main contract of polysilicon (PS2601) was 54,355 yuan/ton, with a change of - 0.27% (- 145). The weighted contract positions changed by + 4813 lots to 255,836 lots. The average spot prices of N - type granular silicon, N - type dense material, and N - type re - feeding material were flat, and the basis of the main contract was - 1375 yuan/ton [14]. Strategy Viewpoints - The supply pressure of polysilicon may be marginally alleviated. The downstream operating rate is expected to be stable. The supply - demand pattern may improve, but the short - term de - stocking amplitude is limited. Pay attention to the implementation of relevant news [15]. Glass and Soda Ash Glass - Market Information: The main contract of glass closed at 1113 yuan/ton, up 1.64% (+ 18). The inventory of float - glass sample enterprises increased by 233.74 million cases (+ 3.64%) week - on - week. The top 20 long - position holders reduced 25,212 long positions, and the top 20 short - position holders reduced 86,221 short positions [17]. - Strategy Viewpoints: The glass market is mainly trading low - price goods, the demand recovery is slow, and the raw - material soda ash price provides cost support. The glass futures price is expected to fluctuate widely in the short term [18]. Soda Ash - Market Information: The main contract of soda ash closed at 1239 yuan/ton, down 0.56% (- 7). The inventory of soda - ash sample enterprises increased by 0.16 million tons (+ 3.64%) week - on - week. The top 20 long - position holders reduced 2798 long positions, and the top 20 short - position holders increased 9227 short positions [19]. - Strategy Viewpoints: The supply of soda ash is stable, the cost pressure increases, and the downstream replenishment demand is mainly for low - price and rigid needs. The soda ash price is expected to consolidate narrowly in the short term [20].

Group 1 - Israel's Prime Minister Netanyahu has ordered a strong military response against Gaza following attacks from Hamas, leading to multiple airstrikes in Gaza City [2] - The Palestinian Islamic Resistance Movement (Hamas) denied involvement in the attacks and emphasized its commitment to the current ceasefire agreement, calling for mediation to pressure Israel to stop violations [2] Group 2 - President Trump criticized Federal Reserve Chairman Powell, labeling him as "incompetent" and indicating a change in leadership is expected by May next year [4] - Trump has repeatedly called for significant interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve [4] Group 3 - Recent rumors about a trader making a massive profit from gold futures have been debunked, highlighting the high risks associated with such trading strategies, especially in a volatile market [5] - International gold prices have seen a significant decline, dropping nearly $500 per ounce over six trading days, with a 3.15% drop on one day alone [5] Group 4 - The Shanghai Composite Index briefly surpassed the 4000-point mark, the highest since August 2015, but closed down 0.22% [7] - Key drivers for the recent market rally include favorable policies, improved market sentiment, economic recovery expectations, and ample liquidity [7][8] - The current market environment is characterized by a more stable foundation compared to previous peaks in 2007 and 2015, with institutional investments significantly increasing [8][9] - Analysts suggest that the next key resistance level for the Shanghai Composite Index is 5178 points, with immediate support at 3950 points [9]