从市场运行节奏看，沪指反身向上，正在尝试挑战 5 月中旬的高点。沪指于 5 月中旬逐步向下调 整，呈现高低点同步下移特征。但最终在 60 天均线获得支撑后，重新展开了一波反弹，目前正在接近 5 月中旬的高点。当然，去年四季度的成交密集区以及今年一季度的市场高点附近仍有较强技术阻力。 首先，市场短期聚焦中美经贸磋商的进程。继上周四中美两国领导人电话沟通之后，双方的新一轮 经贸磋商在英国正式拉开帷幕。近期国内资本市场重心缓慢上移，这其中也已经部分定价了中美贸易缓 和的预期。当然，如果会谈的具体结果低于市场预期的话，短期市场出现些许调整也属正常。目前来 看，围绕基本面预期的波动尚在可控范围之内，预计短期仍是区间震荡行情。 风险提示：国际贸易、地缘冲突超出预期；上市公司业绩增速回落超预期；全球经济衰退超预期。 其次，两市震荡回落，成交增加。周二，两市平开后，上午横向整理，午后出现一波快速的调整， 尾盘略有收回，沪指收盘于略低于五天线。深圳成指周一刚站上 60 天均线，周二再次跌破，显示上方 仍有压力。两市量能超过了 1.4 万亿元，较本周一明显增加。微观结构上，全天个股涨少跌多，涨停股 票数量有所减少。当天市场热点主 ...

美国5月非农就业数据超预期，显示出劳动力市场韧性，但行业分化明显，薪资增长强化通胀黏性，美 联储或延续观望立场。我国外贸韧性较强，对新兴市场出口强劲，结构持续优化。美国经济与政治矛盾 加剧，本周中美经贸磋商有望取得较好进展，市场情绪或进一步改善，股指配置价值提高。 美联储或延续观望立场 5月美国非农就业报告显示，尽管经济面临多重挑战，但劳动力市场仍展现出韧性，新增就业13.9万 人，超出预期的12.6万人；失业率维持在4.2%，符合预期，但内部结构分化，U1失业率下降表明长期 失业者减少，U4上升则暗示失志就业者增加。 分行业来看，商品生产部门表现疲软，制造业就业减少1.3万人，主要受耐用品制造拖累，采矿业和建 筑业就业也小幅回落，反映工业活动承压。相比之下，服务业就业增长14.5万人，其中休闲酒店业和运 输仓储业分别因季节性需求释放和贸易回暖表现突出，但专业商业服务及教育保健服务成为拖累。此 外，政府部门就业继续收缩，减少0.1万人。 值得关注的是，薪资增速超预期回升。私人部门时薪环比增长0.4%，高于预期的0.3%，同比增速持稳 于3.9%，也高于预期。各行业薪资普遍上涨，进一步强化通胀担忧。虽然关税影响 ...

期货市场交易指引 2025 年 06 月 11 日 | 宏观金融 | | | --- | --- | | ◆股指： | 震荡偏强 | | ◆国债： | 震荡走强 | | 黑色建材 | | | ◆螺纹钢： | 暂时观望 | | ◆铁矿石： | 暂时观望 | | ◆双焦： | 震荡运行 | | 有色金属 | | | ◆铜： | 区间谨慎交易 | | ◆铝： | 建议轻仓试空 | | ◆镍： | 建议观望或逢高做空 | | ◆锡： | 区间交易 | | ◆黄金： | 区间交易 | | ◆白银： | 区间交易 | | 能源化工 | | | ◆PVC： | 震荡偏弱。 | | ◆纯碱： | 01 合约空头思路。 | | ◆烧碱： | 震荡偏弱。 | | ◆苯乙烯： | 震荡偏弱。 | | ◆橡胶： | 震荡偏弱。 | | ◆尿素： | 震荡运行 | | ◆甲醇： | 震荡运行 | | ◆聚烯烃： | 宽幅震荡 | | 棉纺产业链 | | | ◆棉花棉纱： | 震荡反弹 | | ◆苹果： | 震荡运行 | | ◆PTA： | 区间震荡 | | 农业畜牧 | | | ◆生猪： | 逢高偏空 | | ◆鸡蛋： | 逢高偏空 ...

东莞证券认为，周二，A股市场午后快速走低，创业板指领跌。盘面上，市场热点较为杂乱，个股跌多 涨少。政策积极落地预期以及国内经济结构性亮点、科技领域技术突破催化等，都有望带动市场中结构 性机会显现和股市赚钱效应的增加，短期大盘或保持震荡蓄势，若后续成交量能持续放大指数有望实现 突破，否则仍将维持震荡走势。关注中美经贸磋商机制首次会议及6月底政策落地，同时留意经济数据 和美联储议息会议。 中原证券认为，周二A股市场冲高遇阻、小幅震荡整理，盘中银行、电力、医药以及航运港口等行业表 现较好；半导体、航天航空、软件开发以及电机等行业表现较弱，沪指全天基本呈现小幅震荡整理的运 行特征。5月降准降息落地后，市场资金面整体处于宽松充裕状态。现阶段货币政策尚有增量空间，预 计将伴随外部环境变化适时推出。财政政策则持续发力专项债和新质生产力领域，为经济高质量发展提 供坚实后盾。市场预计美联储最早或于9月份进行下一次降息操作，海外流动性进一步宽松尚需等待。 预计短期市场以稳步震荡上行为主，仍需密切关注政策面、资金面以及外盘的变化情况。 中信证券认为，5月A股市场投资者情绪整体平稳，上半月受益于中美贸易摩擦明显改善，下半月因内 需和 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货国债期货早报（2025 年 6 月 11 日） ◼ 品种观点参考—金融期货股指板块 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—金融期货股指板块 品种：TL、T、TF、TS 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：震荡 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TL2509 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡偏强 | 震荡 | 宏观经济指标走弱 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 参考观点：震荡 核心逻辑：昨日国债期货均继续窄幅震荡整理。消息面上，中美经贸磋商机制首次会议在英国伦敦开 始举行。目前磋商结果仍具有较强不确定性，市场情绪以等待观望居多。由于关税前景不确定性扰动 ...

美东时间6月10日周二美股临近尾盘时，美国商务部长卢特尼克讲话提及会谈，传来被视为顺利的会谈利好，美股大盘应声走高，热门中概股总体涨幅扩 大。 两大美股指标普500和纳指加速上涨，尾盘均刷新日高，标普涨逾0.6%，纳指涨逾0.7%，道指盘中涨幅曾扩大到110点以上，向午盘所创的日高靠近。 芯片股指尾盘也刷新日高、费城半导体指数的日内涨近2.3%。 纳斯达克金龙中国指数（HXC）盘中涨幅扩大到0.3%以上，逼近美股早盘刷新的日高。 离岸人民币（CNH）兑美元的汇率跌幅略有收窄，美股尾盘曾收复7.1890，日内跌不足60点。 "卢特尼克的加入也意味着，中方有权继续就美方实施的出口管制这一问题提意见、要解释、要回应。" 玉渊潭天的文章援引美国媒体的报道称，没人希望会谈陷入僵局，紧接着，文章指出： "而在此之前，中方就已经明确表态：美方应实事求是看待取得的进展，撤销对中国实施的消极举措。无论美方来了谁，都应清楚理解，中方有 诚意，同时也有原则。" 新华社6月10日稍早发文称，国际舆论认为中美经贸磋商意义重大，既直接关系到中美探索化解贸易争端的路径，又事关全球经济增长前景。 市场对中美会谈相关消息的迅速反应部分体现了全 ...

Core Viewpoint - Huawei's CEO Ren Zhengfei emphasizes resilience and long-term commitment to technological advancement despite external pressures, advocating for societal support for foundational scientific research [1][2][4]. Group 1: Huawei's Strategy and Resilience - Huawei continues to progress in the face of sanctions from Western countries, particularly in the semiconductor and AI sectors, demonstrating a commitment to long-term goals and strategic patience [1][3]. - The company plans to invest 179.7 billion yuan in R&D for 2024, marking a 9.1% increase year-on-year, which constitutes 20.8% of its sales revenue [3]. Group 2: National Support and Policy Environment - The development of private enterprises like Huawei is supported by China's comprehensive industrial system, infrastructure, talent supply, and legal environment, which have been enhanced through recent policies [2][4]. - The implementation of the "Private Economy Promotion Law" aims to optimize the development environment for private enterprises, reinforcing long-term institutional confidence [2]. Group 3: R&D Investment and Innovation - China's total R&D expenditure is projected to exceed 3.6 trillion yuan in 2024, reflecting an 8.3% increase from the previous year, maintaining its position as the second-largest R&D investor globally [3]. - China's R&D intensity reached 2.68%, ranking 12th among major countries and surpassing the EU average of 2.11% [3].

金十数据整理：6月10日欧盘美盘重要新闻汇总 国内新闻： 1. 中美经贸磋商机制首次会议进入第二天。会议从上午开始，在午餐后继续进行。 2. 中共中央办公厅、国务院办公厅印发《关于深入推进深圳综合改革试点 深化改革创新扩大开放的意 见》。 3. 习近平同韩国总统李在明通电话。 4. 商务部：对原产于欧盟的进口相关猪肉及猪副产品反倾销调查的调查期限延长至2025年12月16日。 5. 人社部：将落实取消灵活就业人员在就业地参保的户籍限制，稳妥有序扩大新就业形态人员职业伤害 保障试点。 6. 《直播电商监督管理办法》面向社会公开征求意见：直播营销人员应真实、准确、全面地介绍商品或 者服务；不得欺骗、误导消费者。 7. 国家发改委主任郑栅洁主持召开座谈会，就编制"十五五"规划听取民营企业意见建议。 8. 辽宁舰、山东舰航母编队赴西太平洋等海域开展训练。 9. 广汽、东风等多家车企承诺将支付账期统一至60天内， 国际新闻： 1. 欧盟第18轮对俄制裁方案提议下调俄油价格上限至45美元。普京延长石油禁供措施。 2. 美国总统特朗普周二将前往北卡罗来纳州布拉格堡军事基地，届时将发表重要演讲。 3. 英国5月就业人数创20 ...

(本文来源：玉渊谭天) 当地时间6月10日，中美经贸磋商机制首次会议进入第二天。会议从上午开始，在午餐后继续进 行。 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - Recommend shorting zinc as the demand is expected to be weak after the end of the "rush to export" and the tariff implementation, and the supply from the mining end is increasing in the second quarter. There is a possibility that the weak demand will be transmitted upstream, exacerbating the surplus of zinc and pushing the Shanghai zinc price below 21,500 yuan/ton [1]. - Short copper above 79,500 yuan/ton with a stop - loss at this price, as there is strong resistance at the previous downward gap and the consumption is weakening [1]. Summary by Variety Copper - **Market sentiment**: The US premium accelerates the outflow of LME copper inventory, raising the spot premium. The market is trading on the expectation of the US raising metal tariffs. The Sino - US manufacturing PMI is mostly in the contraction range, and the Fed is likely to keep interest rates unchanged in June. The market is waiting for the US inflation data [1]. - **Domestic supply and demand**: The import ore TC is below $40 and may not decline further. The domestic refined - scrap copper price difference may stabilize at 1,200 yuan due to weakening consumption. The domestic refined copper output is expected to increase. The spot premium in Shanghai and Guangdong has narrowed, and the social inventory is oscillating at 149,500 tons. The domestic consumption is weakening, and the refinery's export is expected to increase [1]. - **Overseas situation**: Peru's copper output is expected to increase slightly to 2.8 million tons this year. The KK copper mine in Congo - Kinshasa may resume production at the end of the month. Attention should be paid to the LME visible inventory and the US copper price [1]. - **Trend**: Short - position holders should consider changing contracts, and stop - loss above 79,500 yuan [1]. Aluminum and Alumina - **Alumina**: The supply of alumina has increased after the profit repair, with the operating capacity increasing by 1.35 million tons to 90.65 million tons last week. The inventory has decreased by 29,000 tons to 3.133 million tons. The spot market has few transactions, and the ex - factory price in the northwest has dropped to 3,200 yuan. The alumina market has an over - supply situation. Consider shorting on rallies in the futures market. The price of Guinea ore is stable at $75, and the downside of alumina is limited [1]. - **Supply**: The domestic electrolytic aluminum operating capacity is around 4.3 million tons, with no expected reduction in the short term [1]. - **Demand**: The weekly operating rate of related enterprises has increased by 17 percentage points to 60.9%. The demand for aluminum plates and strips has weakened, and the operating rate of some enterprises has decreased. The aluminum cable sector's enthusiasm for procurement and production has declined. The operating rate of the aluminum profile sector is divided, with the construction and photovoltaic sectors weak, while the 3C and power sectors have some support [1]. - **Inventory and spot**: The social inventory of aluminum ingots has decreased by 42,000 tons to 477,000 tons, and the social inventory of aluminum rods has increased by 2,000 tons to 180,000 tons. The inventory is at a low level in recent years. The spot premium in East China has narrowed by 40 yuan to 70 yuan, the premium in Central China has narrowed by 50 yuan to 10 yuan, and the discount in South China has widened by 20 yuan to 60 yuan. The processing fee of South China aluminum rods has slightly decreased to below 300 yuan [1]. - **Trend**: The market risk preference is improving, but the center of the Shanghai aluminum price has slightly declined. The aluminum market is in a de - stocking phase, but the demand may face challenges. The Shanghai aluminum price faces resistance at 20,300 yuan. Consider short - selling on rallies [1]. Zinc - **Market situation**: The Shanghai zinc price has been in a narrow - range consolidation, and the technical pattern is at the end of a triangle. The zinc spot import window is closed [1]. - **Spot and supply**: The overseas zinc ore output is expected to increase in the second quarter, and the import volume of zinc concentrate in May is expected to remain high. The smelter's raw material inventory is at a high level of 27.72 days. The CZSPT group's import zinc concentrate procurement dollar processing fee guidance price for the third quarter is in the range of $80 - 100 per dry ton. The smelters are resuming production after maintenance, and the refined zinc output in June is expected to increase by 40,000 tons to over 590,000 tons. The social inventory has increased by 4,300 tons to 81,700 tons, and the LME zinc inventory has decreased to 137,000 tons, with a deep discount of $35.6 per dry ton for 0 - 3 months, indicating weak overseas demand. The import window may open briefly in June if the US dollar index weakens [1]. - **Consumption**: The "rush to export" is ending, and the consumption expectation is under pressure. The domestic special bonds are being issued faster than expected, but the infrastructure projects' physical demand will be realized after the rainy season. The photovoltaic installation peak has ended, and the "trade - in" policy has over - drawn the demand. Both domestic and overseas demand are under pressure in June [1]. - **Trend**: In June, the supply is increasing while the demand is weak. The inventory is increasing, and the price is falling with increasing positions. Hold short positions established at previous high levels [1]. Lead - **Market situation**: The lead price has been in a narrow - range fluctuation due to insufficient demand and the inverted refined - scrap price [1]. - **Spot and supply**: The SMM lead social inventory has increased to 53,400 tons, and the SMM 1 lead average price has a discount of 170 yuan/ton to the near - month contract. The LME lead inventory is at a high level of 236,300 tons, with a discount of $26.98 per dry ton for 0 - 3 months. Some recycled lead smelters have reduced production due to environmental inspections and losses. The primary lead smelters' production increase space is limited due to raw material shortages. The supply of waste batteries is in short supply, and the import loss of lead ingots is still over 600 yuan/ton [1]. - **Consumption**: The battery enterprises' operating rate has recovered after the holiday, but the overall consumption is still weak. Lead - acid battery enterprises are willing to buy at low prices. The automobile battery brands are promoting sales, and there are rumors of price increases for electric bicycle batteries. The dealers are mainly digesting inventory [1]. - **Trend**: The price is supported by cost and pressured by consumption. The Shanghai lead price is expected to fluctuate between 16,500 - 17,000 yuan/ton [1]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Futures market**: The Shanghai nickel price has rebounded, and the trading volume is light. The Shanghai stainless steel price is slightly weaker, and the closing price is at 12,705 yuan, with stable positions [1]. - **Macro and demand**: Geopolitical and tariff - related changes have led to an improvement in risk preference, reducing the short - and medium - term concerns about demand decline. The spot market transactions are mainly for rigid demand [1]. - **Spot and supply**: The premium of Jinchuan nickel is 2,400 yuan, the premium of imported nickel is 7,100 yuan, and the premium of electrowon nickel is 150 yuan. The loading of nickel mines in the Philippines has been delayed due to rain. The price of high - grade nickel ore is at 953 yuan per nickel point. The nickel ore inventory has increased by 2,000 tons to 31,500 tons, the pure nickel inventory has decreased by 2,000 tons to 39,000 tons, and the stainless steel inventory has increased by 16,000 tons to 983,000 tons [1]. - **Conclusion and strategy**: Wait for the opportunity to short as the Shanghai nickel price rebounds [1]. Tin - **Market situation**: The tin price has rebounded significantly, with the LME tin price rising by more than 6.7%. The Shanghai tin weighted price has returned above 262,000 yuan after recovering the annual line. The market is focusing on the tight supply of tin concentrate in China [1]. - **Supply**: A smelter in Wa State may not be able to produce large quantities in the short term, and the inventory is low. The supply in southern Myanmar may be affected by environmental protection, and the domestic tin concentrate supply is expected to be tight for a longer time. The domestic refined tin output in May decreased by 0.3% to 14,670 tons and is expected to further decrease to 13,800 tons in June. The supply of recycled tin in Jiangxi is also restricted by raw materials [1]. - **Consumption**: The SMM tin social inventory has decreased by 216 tons to 8,856 tons. The consumption is weakening, and the orders of photovoltaic and electronic enterprises have decreased. The LME tin inventory has decreased to 2,440 tons, with a spot premium of $50 for 0 - 3 months [1]. - **Trend**: The tin price is expected to continue to oscillate to balance the domestic supply and demand situation. Pay attention to the overseas consumption. Consider reducing some short positions or moving to far - month contracts when the Shanghai tin price rebounds close to the previous high of 265,000 yuan [1]. Lithium Carbonate - **Futures market**: The lithium carbonate futures price has been oscillating at a low level, and the price has been fluctuating around 60,000 yuan. The trading volume is active, and the positions have decreased by 8,000 lots to 566,000 lots [1]. - **Spot performance**: The battery - grade lithium carbonate price is 60,300 yuan, with a weekly stable price. The price difference between industrial - grade and battery - grade is 1,600 yuan. Some non - integrated lithium salt plants have increased their operating rates after hedging [1]. - **Macro and demand**: The material factories are generally producing actively. The energy - storage orders have recovered, but the power orders have slightly decreased. The overall weekly production has increased [1]. - **Supply factors**: The total market inventory has increased by 800 tons to 132,400 tons, the downstream inventory has decreased by 540 tons to 41,000 tons, the smelter inventory has increased to 57,000 tons, and the intermediate inventory has increased by 500 tons. The Australian ore price is $607.5 [1]. - **Trend**: The downward trend of the lithium carbonate futures price has slowed down. Consider participating in short - term rebound trading [1]. Industrial Silicon - **Futures**: The price has rebounded from a low level of 7,000 yuan/ton to above 7,400 yuan/ton due to oversold technical indicators [1]. - **Spot**: The SMM Huayangtong 553 silicon liquid average price is 8,150 yuan/ton, down 300 yuan/ton week - on - week. The downstream replenishment sentiment is weak [1]. - **Supply**: A large factory in Xinjiang has resumed production, and the operating rate in other regions has changed slightly [1]. - **Inventory**: The SMM social inventory is 587,000 tons, with a decrease of 2,000 tons week - on - week. The ordinary inventory is 135,000 tons, an increase of 1,000 tons, and the delivery inventory is 452,000 tons, a decrease of 3,000 tons [1]. - **Demand**: The price of polysilicon N - type is stable. The polysilicon production in June is expected to be 98,800 tons, an increase of 2,700 tons month - on - month. In the organic silicon field, the DMC inventory has decreased by nearly 30% in May, and the DMC production in June is expected to be 205,000 tons, an increase of 21,000 tons [1]. - **Summary**: In June, the industrial silicon may still have a slight inventory pressure. The price may rebound in the short term due to technical factors, but the downward trend remains. Pay attention to the MA20 resistance level [1]. Polysilicon - **Price**: The futures price's oscillation center has moved down, and the main contract is near the key level of 34,000 yuan/ton. The spot price is stable, with the large - factory dense re - feed material priced at 36,000 - 37,000 yuan/ton [1]. - **Supply**: Sichuan has entered the wet season, and leading enterprises plan to replace production capacity. The polysilicon production in June is expected to be 98,800 tons, an increase of 2,700 tons month - on - month. The factory inventory is 269,000 tons, a decrease of 1,000 tons week - on - week [1]. - **Demand**: After the 531 policy node, the distributed orders have decreased, and the centralized projects are on hold. The component enterprises have raised the price, but the transactions are insufficient. The silicon wafer price is stable, and the production in June is expected to decrease by about 2GW [1]. - **Summary**: The component demand has decreased, while the polysilicon production is increasing. The inventory pressure is slightly rising, and the futures price is expected to continue to decline [1].