中美贸易战迎来了一次短暂的休整，美国对中国的关税降幅达到30%，中国对美国的关税降幅为10%。这看似双方各自后退一步的调整，背后却蕴藏着复杂 的博弈，各方的得失需要深刻剖析。 从结果来看，中国无疑是这一轮调整中的最大赢家。美国曾要求中国不要对关税进行报复，而中国不仅反击，而且迫使美国最终做出妥协。然而，这并不是 终结，只是中场的短暂停歇。尽管风险表面上有所下降，但实际上，为什么这么说，接下来会有更详细的解读。 美国对中国的关税大幅下降，许多人以为中国为此付出了某种代价，但实际上，情况正好相反，几乎没有任何筹码被交换。美国在与其他国家的谈判中常常 要求"购买美国商品"和"增加对美投资"等条件，而在这次的联合声明中，这些内容完全没有出现。此前协议中常见的"中国增加自美采购、扩大对美直接投 资"等提法也消失了。 再来看美国的库存情况，消费品库存几乎见底，考虑到订单生产和运输的周期，圣诞节订单最迟需要在5月下单。因此，留给美国商人购买中国商品、为圣 诞补货的时间已经不多了。 事实上，关税对美国通胀的影响需要一定的时间才能显现。短期内，低油价和抢进口的需求推动了中美贸易，反而在短期内推高了双方的贸易量。另一方 面，美国 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Geneva statement marks the beginning of a new phase in the US-China relationship, shifting the focus from tariff disputes to technology breakthroughs, rule restructuring, and industrial chain competition [2][11]. Group 1: Market Reactions - Following the Geneva statement, the US lifted 91% of new tariffs on China and reduced the small package tax rate from 120% to 54%, leading to a surge in market activity [3][4]. - Export activities intensified, with logistics companies reporting a 35% increase in shipping orders from China to the US on the first day of the trade agreement [6]. - The stock market reacted positively, with the Shanghai Composite Index returning to 3400 points and the shipping index hitting a ceiling [6][7]. Group 2: Business Strategies - Companies are urged to reconsider their reliance on a single market and accelerate their overseas expansion strategies to mitigate risks [8][10]. - There is a growing trend among Chinese businesses to adopt a more rational approach to overseas investments, such as preferring leasing land instead of purchasing it outright [10]. - Experts suggest that businesses should utilize the 90-day window to enhance their overseas presence and diversify supply chains to reduce costs and comply with origin rules [17]. Group 3: Compliance and Risk Management - Companies need to strengthen their legal awareness and compliance capabilities, particularly regarding intellectual property and local regulations in target markets [18][21]. - It is essential for businesses to clarify contract terms related to tax and tariff responsibilities to avoid disputes arising from tariff changes [20][21]. - The importance of establishing a sustainable operational framework is emphasized, moving away from gray area practices to genuine localization in foreign markets [22][23]. Group 4: Long-term Outlook - The ongoing US-China trade tensions are expected to persist, necessitating a balanced approach to international market strategies [24][28]. - The restructuring of global supply chains is deemed irreversible, with a focus on building a globalized and localized supply chain system [25][26]. - The future investment landscape will likely center around technological innovation and domestic consumption, with a potential for gradual RMB appreciation [31][34].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that despite the higher tariffs imposed by the US on China (30% compared to China's 10%), the recent negotiations are considered a success for China due to the mutual reduction in tariffs from previously much higher levels [1][7] - The previous tariff situation involved the US imposing tariffs as high as 145% on China, with China responding with 120%, indicating a tit-for-tat approach. The current agreement reflects a more balanced negotiation outcome [1][4] - The article emphasizes that China does not seek to replace the US as a global leader but aims for a multipolar world where various powers coexist and balance each other, showcasing a strategic approach to international relations [4][10] Group 2 - The economic interdependence between China and the US is highlighted, with annual trade impacts amounting to approximately 4 trillion yuan. A collapse of the US economy would adversely affect China, the world's largest exporter [5][10] - The US faces significant fiscal challenges, with a national debt of 36 trillion USD and a historically high deficit. China's willingness to accept higher tariffs is framed as a means to assist the US in addressing its debt issues, which could ultimately benefit both economies [5][10] - The article notes that both countries are engaged in a complex negotiation dynamic, where China retains non-tariff countermeasures against US tariffs, indicating a balanced power dynamic in the negotiations [7][10]

Group 1 - The U.S. government is considering reducing tariffs on China from 145% to a range of 50% to 54% due to significant declines in agricultural exports and military supply issues [1][3] - U.S. agricultural exports have dropped by 54%, and Boeing orders have decreased by 70% as a result of the tariffs, while countries like Brazil and Australia are increasing their market share in China [1][3] - The U.S. heavily relies on China for rare earth elements, which are critical for high-tech industries and military applications, and faces challenges in domestic production due to technological and cost issues [1][3][5] Group 2 - There is a division within the Trump administration between those advocating for negotiations to lower tariffs in exchange for rare earth supplies and hardliners insisting on a confrontational approach [3][5] - Tesla's CEO Elon Musk's visit to China indicates that the negotiation faction may be gaining influence, as Tesla's production plans are hindered by China's rare earth export controls [3][5] - The U.S. has struggled to rebuild its rare earth supply chain, with China maintaining over 80% of the global production capacity, making it difficult for the U.S. to negotiate effectively [5][7] Group 3 - China has made it clear that any negotiations must start with the removal of all tariffs, emphasizing its control over the rare earth supply chain [7] - The ongoing trade tensions highlight the importance of having core technologies and resources domestically, as the U.S. finds itself in a vulnerable position [7]

中美在关税高压下的阶段性降温，美国因内外压力主动求变，中国借机缓解出口压力并巩 固非美谈判成果。 文：国金宏观宋雪涛 中美关税超预期"降级" 5 月 12 日，中美日内瓦经贸会谈联合声明发布，美方承诺取消 4 月 8 日对中国商品加征的 91% 报 复性关税，并将 4 月 2 日对中国商品加征的 34% 对等关税中的 24% 暂缓 90 天，对剩余 10% 关 税予以保留。中方也实施了相应的对等取消和暂缓措施，双方同意建立机制开展进一步经贸磋商 。 就当前时点而言，如何理解日内瓦协议背后的战略意义及其对市场的影响？ 中美各自的战略考量 就中美会谈而言，中国并不着急，美国显然是更 急于在关税方面实现突破的一方。 据中国外交部表 态，本次会谈是中方"应美方请求 "在第三国瑞士举行的会谈（而非美国本土），这相较美方此前"希 望中国主动打电话 "的傲慢态度已经大幅逆转。中方立场坚定明确，坚决反对美国滥施关税，但对建立 在平等、尊重、互惠的基础上的对话始终持开放态度。美方之所以态度逆转，主要有以下原因： 第一，中国"以牙还牙"的博弈策略带动了非美国家的观望、拖延，美方急于破局。 在关税谈判伊始， 中国便采取了对等反制的 ...

中美日内瓦经贸会谈达成重要突破，双方同意将中国对美反制关税从 125%降至 10%，美国对华加征关税从 145%降至 30%，其中 24%关税设 90 天缓冲期。这一结果远超市场预期，反映出美国在谈判中处于更被动立场，其急于取得成果 源于国内经济压力和政治反噬风险，而中国通过与东盟、欧盟等非美国家深化合作争取了谈判主动权。 谈判成功的关键在于中美双方的现实考量。美国面临关税持久战下的供应链中断风险和盟友拖延策略压力，中国则需 避免高关税对出口的长期冲击，同时利用关税战窗口期完成与非美经济体的战略布局。双方在相互经济压力下选择阶 段性妥协，既缓解了短期经贸摩擦，也为后续磋商机制奠定基础。 协议落地后，预计中国 6-7 月出口将因前期抢出口透支需求而回落，但降幅较 145%关税情景明显缓和。政策层面关注 财政对冲工具，市场层面电子产品、纺织等出口链企业压力减轻，国产替代和出海逻辑仍具长期价值。全球风险偏好 回升利好美股，黄金短期波动加剧，人民币贬值压力有所缓解。 风险提示 中美贸易博弈磋商多次反复；美国经济下行加速超预期；国内出口放缓超预期。 敬请参阅最后一页特别声明 1 宏观经济点评 中美关税超预期降级。5 月 ...

Report Investment Rating - No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Views - The current stage represents the "beginning of the end" of the Sino-US game, with a "temporary easing of external pressure" as the macro - background, preparing for the 2.0 game in the future [3]. - The May 12th joint statement signals that the Sino - US trade game since 2018 has ended, and a new stage of competition and cooperation will begin. Market uncertainty pricing will shift from the trade field to other economic and financial fields [5]. - In an optimistic scenario, the end of the current inventory cycle decline may be seen in 2025. Attention should be paid to the real risks to the capital market due to the accelerated bottom - hitting of the cycle and the switch of macro - assets within the year, such as the peak of gold and the steepening of the yield curve [5]. - Regarding strategies, as the economic cycle shifts from the inventory cycle decline to the capacity cycle rise, attention should be paid to the annual inflection point of gold. For Chinese bonds, with the phased improvement of risk assets, attention should be paid to the space for RMB asset allocation provided by the accelerated decline of the inventory cycle, and the yield curve will switch to steep, maintaining a strategic steepening position (+2s10s) [6]. Summary by Directory Why is it now - The macro - background of China's package of financial policies on May 7th is the "temporary easing of external pressure", reaching a window for "easing" to prepare for the future 2.0 game [11]. Review 4 - month pressure events - In April, the global economy released a pessimistic outlook. The US announced the implementation of "reciprocal tariffs" on April 2nd, deteriorating the global trade environment. Direct exports to the US in April began to decline, and spot freight rates also continued to fall [12]. - The US financial market faced pressure in April. With the impact of the US "reciprocal tariffs" and China's "reciprocal counter - measures", the instability of the US financial market increased, and the US stocks, bonds, and the US dollar showed short - term downward pressure. Asian currencies appreciated rapidly during the May Day holiday due to the hedging of currency mismatch pressure by a Taiwanese insurance company [12]. - Under the influence of uncertainty, monetary policies gradually turned loose. The ECB cut three key interest rates by 25 basis points on April 17th, and the Bank of Japan postponed the interest rate hike for the second time on May 1st and lowered GDP and inflation forecasts [12]. Performance 1: Market pressure - Gold prices reflect the "damage" to the US dollar credit. Since the US launched "reciprocal tariffs" in April, the US dollar, bonds, and stocks have fluctuated significantly, increasing market concerns about the US dollar credit. Although US stocks rebounded at the end of April, the loosening of financial conditions driven by the rising volatility of US stocks is significantly converging, and attention should be paid to the evolution of internal contradictions in the US [17]. - The Fed's balance - sheet policy needs to cooperate. The large refinancing scale of US bonds in the middle of this year has shocked the market. The current benchmark interest rate of 4.50 - 4.75% still poses pressure on fiscal refinancing. Before the final implementation of policy games, US stocks still face the risk of a second adjustment [18]. Performance 2: Economic pressure - The global economy will face downward pressure due to the trade war. In April, the global manufacturing prosperity declined significantly, with the global manufacturing PMI dropping to 49.8, China's to 49.0, and the US's to 48.7. Structurally, it shows a decline in Chinese demand and a rise in US prices [21]. What are the incremental information - On May 12th, the Sino - US joint statement was released. In terms of the background, it was a "talk" rather than a "negotiation". In the tariff aspect, the current tariff policy will be adjusted to "one cancellation, one suspension, and one retention" before May 14th, canceling tariffs imposed after April 8th, suspending 24% tariffs for 90 days, and retaining 10% tariffs. The statement did not mention "fentanyl tariffs". In the non - tariff aspect, a mechanism will be established to negotiate economic and trade relations [25][26]. About tariffs - The 90 - day tariff suspension provides a time window for Sino - US negotiations, boosting market risk appetite. The US still needs to impose about 49% tariffs on China, and China's corresponding counter - measures still need to implement about 40% tariffs, which will cause inflationary pressure on US enterprises and consumers [31][34]. About non - tariffs - The Sino - US joint statement mentioned establishing a mechanism to continue negotiating economic and trade relations. The establishment of the communication mechanism may provide space for Trump's domestic policies before the mid - term elections. In different fields, such as trade, geopolitics, regulation, and tax cuts, corresponding developments are expected [35][37]. How to view the macro - market - The May 12th joint statement signals that the Sino - US trade game since 2018 has ended, and a new stage of competition and cooperation will begin. Market uncertainty pricing will shift from the trade field to other economic and financial fields [39]. Risks in the current downward stage - The cycle is in a downward phase in 2025. The Trump tariff war and the May 12th joint statement will accelerate the cycle to "bottom out", and attention should be paid to the real risks to the capital market [40]. Outlook for the future upward stage - The "beginning of the end" of the Sino - US game is expected to accelerate the global cycle's shift from the current downward stage (global central bank interest rate cuts) to the upward stage (global fiscal expansion). Optimistically, the "low point" of this cycle will be reached within the year, and attention should be paid to the switch of macro - assets [44][45].

Core Viewpoint - China's exports surged by 9.3% in April, reaching 2.27 trillion yuan, despite a widening trade deficit with the U.S. by 20% [1][3] Group 1: China's Export Performance - Exports to ASEAN reached 1.48 trillion yuan, contributing significantly to the overall growth [3] - Exports to Africa increased by 15.1%, while Latin America saw an 11.5% rise [3] - High-tech product exports, such as industrial robots, soared by 58.3%, indicating a strong demand for advanced manufacturing [3] Group 2: U.S. Export Challenges - U.S. exports to China plummeted by 21% in April, with significant declines in agricultural and aerospace sectors [5][12] - The semiconductor exports to China rebounded to $10.5 billion, but mainly consisted of low-end chips [5] - The U.S. faces a severe downturn in education exports, down by 25%, and a halving of tourism revenue compared to pre-pandemic levels [12] Group 3: Trade Dynamics and Supply Chain Adjustments - The trade war has led to a significant shift in supply chains, with companies relocating production to countries like Mexico and Thailand [10] - China's exports to the U.S. have decreased by 35%, yet its global market share has increased by 0.8% [10] - The trade strategies employed by China and the U.S. reflect a complex interplay, with China adapting quickly to new market conditions [14]

中美在瑞士谈出了初步结果，基本上回到了4月2日之前，当时特朗普宣布搞对等关税，给中国加了34%的关税，然后其中的24%暂缓90天，相当于只加了 10%的关税，中国也对等加了10%的关税。 美国目前对中国的额外加的关税应该是54%，由于其中24%暂缓90天，所以实际加了30%；中国目前对美国额外加的关税应该是34%，由于其中24%暂缓 90天，所以实际加了10%。 为啥说额外加的呢，因为从2018年开始就打贸易战，就对不同的产品加了不少关税，比如说电动汽车就是加了100%关税，这次居然只谈4月2日加的，也 没完全取消，还是加了10%，还留了24%的暂缓尾巴。 只不过这样一来其他国家就被摆上了台面，他们肯定顶不住美国的压力的，搞到最后还是中美博弈，只不过有了这次的经验，后续对等反制已经是正常招 数了，美国出什么招也不好使。 美国非要说赢也有道理，毕竟关税确实比中国高，中国说赢也有道理，毕竟一杆子打回到4月2日，在这个基础上对等反制加了10%的关税，就看你从那个 角度去看了。 美国先发起关税战，现在还给他机会缓口气，其实加到145%索性大家断了念想也好，如今搞的不高不低的最难受，30%-50%的关税正好卡在中间，让 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings - Not provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Stock Index Futures**: The intraday view is oscillating with a slight upward bias, with IC and IM being relatively stronger. The medium - term view is bullish. The core logic includes the expected marginal improvement in Sino - US trade relations, the implementation of domestic positive policies, and a healthy chip structure in the AI industry chain [1][2]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The intraday and medium - term views are high - level oscillations, and there is a need to be cautious about the adjustment risk of long - term bonds. The core logic is that the fundamental situation has fulfilled the tariff shock expectation, and loose policy expectations support the bond market, but there are also risks of repeated Sino - US tariff games [3][4]. - **Commodity Futures (Black and Building Materials)**: The intraday view is a gradual decline in steel prices, and the medium - term view is that steel prices will be under pressure. The core logic is the large inventory pressure of steel raw materials and the general downstream demand for steel [5]. 3. Summary by Category Stock Index Futures - **Varieties**: IF, IH, IC, IM [1] - **Intraday View**: Oscillating with a slight upward bias, IC and IM are relatively stronger [1] - **Medium - term View**: Bullish [1] - **Reference Strategy**: Hold IM2505 long positions, buy 1 lot of MO2506 - C - 5900 call options and sell 2 lots of MO2506 - P - 5200 put option combinations [1] - **Core Logic**: Sino - US trade relations are expected to improve, domestic positive policies are being implemented, and the AI industry chain has a healthy chip structure [1][2] Treasury Bond Futures - **Varieties**: TS, TF, T, TL [3] - **Intraday View**: High - level oscillations, be cautious about the adjustment risk of long - term bonds [3] - **Medium - term View**: High - level oscillations [3] - **Reference Strategy**: Cautiously operate the long TF2506 and short TL2506 hedging combination [3] - **Core Logic**: The fundamental situation has fulfilled the tariff shock expectation, loose policy expectations support the bond market, but there are risks of repeated Sino - US tariff games [4] Commodity Futures (Black and Building Materials) - **Varieties**: Rebar, Hot - rolled coil [5] - **Intraday View**: Gradual decline in steel prices [5] - **Medium - term View**: Steel prices will be under pressure [5] - **Reference Strategy**: Hold short rebar call option RB2510 - C - 3450, hold long rebar in - the - money put option RB2510 - P - 3150 [5] - **Core Logic**: Large inventory pressure of steel raw materials and general downstream demand for steel [5]