Core Points - The recent communication between the U.S. and China regarding rare earth elements signifies a strategic maneuver rather than a simple dialogue, indicating a complex backdrop of competition and negotiation [1][3][21] - China's recent restrictions on rare earth exports are more targeted and stringent, aimed specifically at the U.S., highlighting the importance of these materials in the tech industry [3][9][19] - The U.S. is under pressure to maintain access to rare earths, as its own domestic production efforts have not progressed as hoped, making it reliant on Chinese supplies [7][9][11] - The tone of the communication suggests that both parties are aware of each other's positions and are testing boundaries rather than seeking immediate resolutions [6][13][21] Summary by Sections U.S.-China Communication - The video call initiated by the U.S. reflects a desire to understand China's intentions regarding rare earth exports, indicating a shift in the dynamics of their relationship [1][3][19] - China's response was measured, emphasizing respect for core interests, suggesting a willingness to negotiate but with clear boundaries [5][11][17] Rare Earth Elements - Rare earths are critical for technology sectors, and the U.S. recognizes its vulnerability in this area, prompting a quick response to China's export restrictions [3][9][19] - The U.S. has attempted to develop domestic alternatives but has faced challenges, making it imperative to maintain a dialogue with China [7][9][11] Strategic Implications - The current situation is characterized by a balance of power where both sides are aware of their leverage, with China demonstrating a more confident stance in negotiations [11][15][21] - The communication serves as a signal that China is no longer just a supplier of raw materials but is asserting its position in the global supply chain [15][19][23]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints of the Report - Amid Sino-US tariff disruptions, copper prices are undergoing a high-level adjustment. It is recommended to set trailing stops for existing long positions. In the long term, copper is still favored due to its status as a strategic resource in the Sino-US game and a substitute for precious metals, along with tight copper concentrate supply and surging green copper demand [6][7][84] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Viewpoint Summary - The core view is that Sino-US tariff disruptions lead to a high-level adjustment of copper prices. It is advised to set trailing stops for long positions, and copper is still promising in the long run. The operation strategy is to hold long positions cautiously, avoid blind chasing, and set trailing stops. New long positions should wait for the price to stabilize after a pullback. Production enterprises can consider selling hedges at high prices (around 86,000 - 87,000), while processing enterprises should wait for price pullbacks to buy hedges [6][7][84] Macroeconomic Analysis - **Sino-US Trade Tensions**: Trump's tariff threats show a "TACO" pattern. China has implemented countermeasures such as rare earth export controls, special port fees on US-related ships, anti-monopoly investigations, and adding some US enterprises to the unreliable entity list. The S&P 500 Volatility Index (VIX) rose slightly, and the market should be wary of further market fluctuations caused by Trump's inconsistent stance. The US Treasury Secretary mentioned that if China stops strict rare earth export controls, the US may extend the three-month exemption period for additional tariffs on China [12][15][84] - **Federal Reserve's Stance**: Fed Chairman Powell signaled a dovish stance, hinting at an early end to balance sheet reduction, which strengthened market expectations of a 25-basis-point interest rate cut in October. However, there are differences among Fed officials regarding the pace of interest rate cuts [18] - **China's Macroeconomic Data**: In September, China's manufacturing PMI improved, CPI decline narrowed, PPI decline also narrowed, and export data exceeded expectations. The growth rate of social financing stock slowed down, and new RMB loans decreased year-on-year [21] Supply and Demand Analysis - **Supply Side** - **Copper Concentrate**: Disruptions in major copper mines such as Indonesia's Grasbreg, Congo's Kamoa-Kakula, and Chile's El Teniente have tightened global copper supply. In 2025, the output of global mainstream copper mining enterprises is expected to be revised down to 1.22 billion tons, a year-on-year decrease of 3.18%. The import of copper concentrate increased in August, and the port inventory increased slightly. The copper concentrate TC is at a historically low level, and the smelting processing fee is deeply inverted [47] - **Scrap Copper**: Supply is tight due to restrictions on European high-quality scrap copper exports, Sino-US tariff frictions, and domestic policy adjustments. The refined-scrap copper price spread has narrowed [52] - **Refined Copper**: In September, China's electrolytic copper production decreased significantly. In October, due to smelter maintenance, production is expected to continue to decline. Overseas, smelters are facing a survival crisis due to low TC/RCs. The import of refined copper showed mixed trends [57] - **Demand Side** - **Downstream Enterprises**: High copper prices have suppressed demand, and downstream enterprises are adopting a wait-and-see attitude and making purchases only for essential needs. However, the operating rates of some downstream processing enterprises rebounded slightly in September [63] - **End-User Industries**: Power and new energy vehicle sectors show strong demand. In the first eight months, power grid investment increased, and new photovoltaic installations were prominent. In September, automobile production and sales reached record highs. The home appliance industry is expected to have a front-loaded strong performance followed by a weaker second half, and the real estate market is still at the bottom [69] Summary and Outlook - In the short term, due to Sino-US tariff disruptions and profit-taking by long positions, copper prices have adjusted at a high level. It is recommended to set trailing stops for existing long positions and wait for price pullbacks to enter the market. Attention should be paid to the support level of 80,000 - 82,000. Unless Sino-US relations deteriorate rapidly, the probability of a deep adjustment in copper prices is low. In the long term, copper is favored as a strategic resource and a substitute for precious metals, along with tight copper concentrate supply and surging green copper demand. The price range for Shanghai copper is expected to be between 80,000 and 88,000, and for LME copper, between $10,000 and $11,000 per ton [7][84]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, the domestic oil and fat sector oscillated and declined, mainly dragged down by the drop in international oil prices. Palm oil showed a wide - range oscillation. The production and demand of Malaysian palm oil both increased in the first half of October, with expected subsequent production slowdown and inventory reduction. Indonesia plans to raise export taxes to support the B50 biodiesel policy in 2026, which provides support for prices. The easing of China - Canada trade relations may lead to a restart of Canadian rapeseed imports, making rapeseed oil relatively weak. The continuous shutdown of the US government has suspended data reports, causing a lack of market guidance, but the higher - than - expected soybean crushing demand released by NOPA has boosted the price of US soybean oil. Overall, palm oil is expected to oscillate widely in the short term [5][9][13]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Data - CBOT soybean oil main - continuous contract rose 1.13 to 51.1 cents per pound, an increase of 2.26%. BMD Malaysian palm oil main - continuous contract fell 72 to 4,474 ringgit per ton, a decrease of 1.58%. DCE palm oil contract 01 fell 130 to 9,308 yuan per ton, a decrease of 1.38%. DCE soybean oil contract 01 fell 46 to 8,256 yuan per ton, a decrease of 0.55%. CZCE rapeseed oil contract 01 fell 200 to 9,861 yuan per ton, a decrease of 1.99%. ICE rapeseed active contract rose 7.6 to 631 Canadian dollars per ton, an increase of 1.22% [5][6][8]. - The spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangzhou, Guangdong dropped 210 to 9,250 yuan per ton, a decrease of 2.22%. The spot price of first - grade soybean oil in Rizhao dropped 10 to 8,520 yuan per ton, a decrease of 0.12%. The spot price of imported third - grade rapeseed oil in Zhangjiagang, Jiangsu dropped 210 to 10,120 yuan per ton, a decrease of 2.03% [6]. Market Analysis and Outlook - Production and demand data: From October 1 - 15, 2025, Malaysian palm oil yield per unit area increased by 5.76% month - on - month, oil extraction rate by 0.21% month - on - month, and production by 6.86% month - on - month. The export volume data from different institutions showed increases ranging from 12.3% to 49.8% compared with the same period last month [10]. - Policy and inventory: Malaysia lowered the reference price of crude palm oil in November to 4,262.23 ringgit per ton (1,008.1 US dollars), while keeping the export tariff at 10%. Indonesia plans to raise the export tax on crude palm oil from 10% to 15% to support the transition from B40 to B50 biodiesel. As of October 10, 2025, the total inventory of the three major oils in key domestic regions was 238.17 million tons, with soybean oil inventory increasing, palm oil inventory decreasing, and rapeseed oil inventory decreasing [11][12][15]. - Consumption data: In India, palm oil imports in September dropped 16.3% to 829,017 tons, the lowest since May, while soybean oil imports surged 36.8% to 503,240 tons, the highest since July 2022, and sunflower oil imports increased by about 6% to 272,386 tons, the highest since January [12]. - Transaction volume: As of the week of October 17, 2025, the average daily trading volume of soybean oil in key domestic regions was 11,800 tons, and that of palm oil was 847 tons [13]. Industry News - It is expected that Malaysia's palm oil inventory will decline in the coming months, reaching about 1.7 million tons by the end of the year, due to seasonal production decline and increased demand during festivals [14]. - Due to increased production and more working days in October, Malaysia's palm oil inventory is expected to increase by 3% month - on - month to 2.4 million tons. Indonesia's plan to implement the B50 biodiesel mandate in mid - 2026 and the seasonal low - production period from November to February may keep palm oil prices between 4,000 and 4,500 ringgit per ton. Analysts have raised the price forecast for Malaysian palm oil in 2025 by 130 ringgit to 4,330 ringgit per ton and in 2026 by 100 ringgit to 4,200 ringgit per ton [14][15]. - Indonesia plans to raise the export tax on crude palm oil from 10% to 15% to support the transition from B40 to B50 biodiesel, and the tax - increase plan is still under discussion among ministries [15]. Relevant Charts - The report provides multiple charts, including the price trends of Malaysian palm oil, US soybean oil, and three major domestic oils, the spot price trends of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil, the inventory trends of Malaysian and Indonesian palm oil, and the commercial inventory trends of domestic three major oils [17][18][20].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The market has high expectations for the "TACO" trade due to the Sino-US trade game, the continuous rise of the Fed's interest rate cut expectations, and domestic policy expectations, leading to significant macro fluctuations. The proportion of molten aluminum on the supply side continues to rise, resulting in less pressure on aluminum ingot supply. The consumption side is still in the seasonal peak season, and the social inventory of aluminum ingots has started to decrease again. The LME spot premium overseas has been relatively high recently, increasing concerns about liquidity risks. Aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate favorably, ranging from 20,700 to 21,200 yuan/ton [3][8] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Transaction Data - The price of LME Aluminum 3 months increased by 32.5 yuan/ton to 2,778.5 yuan/ton, SHFE Aluminum Continuous Three decreased by 70.0 dollars/ton to 20,925 dollars/ton, and the Shanghai-London aluminum ratio decreased by 0.1 to 7.5. The LME spot premium increased by 0.8 dollars/ton to 12.88 dollars/ton. The LME aluminum inventory decreased by 17,600 tons to 491,225 tons, and the SHFE aluminum warehouse receipt inventory increased by 11,551 tons to 70,670 tons. The spot average price decreased by 63 yuan/ton to 20,902 yuan/ton, and the spot premium increased by 40 yuan/ton, stabilizing around a small discount to par. The South China spot average price decreased by 90 yuan/ton to 20,810 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai-Guangdong price difference increased by 27 yuan/ton to 92 yuan/ton. The social inventory of aluminum ingots decreased by 2.2 tons to 62.7 tons, and the aluminum rod inventory decreased by 0.45 tons to 14.8 tons. The theoretical average cost of electrolytic aluminum decreased by 40.2 yuan/ton to 15,830.95 yuan/ton, and the weekly average profit of electrolytic aluminum decreased by 22.8 yuan/ton to 5,071.05 yuan/ton [4] 2. Market Review - The weekly average price of the spot market was 20,902 yuan/ton, a decrease of 63 yuan/ton from the previous week; the weekly average price of the South China spot was 20,810 yuan/ton, a decrease of 90 yuan/ton from the previous week [5] 3. Market Outlook - The US government shutdown continued in the second week, delaying the release of economic data. Multiple Fed officials spoke, and the market's expectation of a 25BP interest rate cut in October continued to rise to 96.3%, and the probability of another rate cut in December also increased to 99.6%. The Sino-US trade game continued, with various news emerging, causing significant fluctuations in the market's macro atmosphere. In China, the year-on-year growth rate of core inflation in September recovered, and the manufacturing PMI continued to rise in the contraction range to 49.8%. Domestic policies to expand domestic demand this year may still be worth looking forward to. Fundamentally, the operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum remained stable, and the proportion of molten aluminum in September increased by 1.23 percentage points to 76.3%, and it is expected to increase by another 1 percentage point in October. On the consumption side, the downstream aluminum operating rate remained stable at 62.5% last week. With the price decline and post-festival replenishment, the spot procurement enthusiasm was good. The spot price rebounded following the futures price, and the transaction premium and discount stabilized around a small discount to par. The social inventory of aluminum ingots decreased again this week, with a reduction of 2.3 tons to 62.7 tons; the aluminum rod inventory was 14.8 tons, a decrease of 0.45 tons from last Thursday [3][8] 4. Industry News - In recent weeks, Canadian aluminum producers have increased shipments to the US market due to the rising aluminum prices in the US spot market, highlighting the impact of the 50% aluminum import tariff imposed by Trump earlier this year. Rio Tinto's Q3 2025 report showed that bauxite production increased by 9% year-on-year to 16.4 million tons, alumina production reached 1.9 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 7%, and primary aluminum production was 0.86 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 6%. The company raised the production target for bauxite from 57-59 million tons (higher level) to 59-61 million tons. The Shanghai Futures Exchange approved the cancellation of the copper and aluminum futures storage point of Shanghai Port Cloud Warehouse (Shanghai) Storage Management Co., Ltd. in Baoshan District, Shanghai, with a verified storage capacity of 10,000 tons for both copper and aluminum [9] 5. Relevant Charts - The report includes 10 charts, showing the price trends of LME Aluminum 3 and SHFE Aluminum Continuous Three, the Shanghai-London aluminum ratio, the LME aluminum premium, the Shanghai aluminum current month - continuous one inter - period price difference, the Shanghai-Guangdong price difference, the seasonal spot premium of physical trade, the prices of domestic and imported alumina, the cost and profit of electrolytic aluminum, the seasonal changes in electrolytic aluminum inventory, and the seasonal changes in aluminum rod inventory [10][11][12][13][14]

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry or Company Involved - The discussion primarily revolves around the **China-U.S. trade relations** and its impact on the **global capital markets**. Core Points and Arguments 1. **Global Capital Market Volatility**: The global capital markets are influenced by multiple factors, including U.S. government shutdown, Japan's fiscal and monetary policies, and political instability in Europe. The core logic is that overseas fiscal policies are difficult to tighten, making risk premiums a significant factor in capital market pricing [1][2][6]. 2. **China-U.S. Trade Dynamics**: The China-U.S. trade conflict is a crucial variable in capital market pricing. The U.S. stock market is affected by Trump's stance and bank credit conditions, while the A-share market is influenced by the intensifying trade conflict. The upcoming APEC summit is a focal point for market attention [1][3][7]. 3. **Domestic Economic Data in China**: There have been no significant changes in China's domestic economic fundamentals. Inflation is stabilizing, and financial and export data remain steady. The changes in the capital market are more influenced by external events rather than domestic fundamentals [1][4][5]. 4. **Recent Events Impacting Overseas Markets**: Recent events such as the U.S. government shutdown and Japan's proposed fiscal policies have led to increased volatility in overseas markets. These events have catalyzed a reevaluation of instability expectations, with the core logic being that overseas fiscal policies are difficult to tighten [2][6]. 5. **Stages of China-U.S. Trade Conflict**: The trade conflict has gone through three stages: a severe phase from February to May, a period of easing from May to September, and a fluctuating phase since October. The APEC summit is expected to yield some interim results, indicating a potential improvement in China-U.S. relations [1][7][11]. 6. **Future of China-U.S. Relations**: The trade conflict is expected to intensify in 2025, with marginal improvements anticipated in 2026, influenced by the U.S. domestic political cycle. The midterm election year will likely shift U.S. focus towards domestic economic policies, reducing emphasis on geopolitical and tariff issues [1][9][10]. 7. **China's Strengthened Position**: China's manufacturing sector has gained significant leverage, allowing it to adopt a more confrontational stance in trade negotiations. This includes retaliatory measures such as increased fees for U.S. ships entering Chinese ports, enhancing China's negotiation position [1][12]. 8. **Impact of Technology and Security Competition**: The competition in technology and security between China and the U.S. has increased market volatility, particularly in October. While this competition may cause short-term disruptions, it is not expected to have a significant long-term impact on China's economy [1][13]. 9. **Outlook for Bond Market**: The bond market in the fourth quarter presents trading opportunities, but there is limited room for interest rate declines. The bond market is expected to experience fluctuations in 2025, with potential risks of sustained interest rate increases in the second half of 2026 [1][14]. 10. **Pre-Summit Dynamics**: In the lead-up to the summit, intense negotiations are typical as both sides test boundaries and increase their bargaining positions. This does not indicate a deterioration in long-term relations but rather prepares for potential agreements [1][15]. Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - The discussion emphasizes that the current phase of the China-U.S. trade conflict is a natural evolution rather than a regression in relations, highlighting the strategic nature of the ongoing negotiations [1][11].

Core Viewpoint - The recent adjustments in China's soybean procurement from the U.S. have caused significant concern for the Trump administration, leading to market volatility, highlighting the strategic depth of the ongoing U.S.-China trade conflict [1][3][21] Group 1: China's Countermeasures - China's countermeasures have been targeted, starting with special port fees on U.S. vessels, increasing operational costs for American shipping companies [3] - The introduction of rare earth export controls directly impacts U.S. high-end industries, as over 90% of U.S. rare earth needs are met through imports [3] - The combination of these measures has led to panic in the U.S., with significant market repercussions, including a chaotic stock market response [3][5] Group 2: U.S. Response and Market Implications - Trump's reaction to China's soybean procurement changes has been notably intense, indicating deeper implications beyond just agricultural interests [5][7] - The U.S. soybean market is currently facing an oversupply due to reduced Chinese purchases, disrupting the usual price signals in the futures market [13] - Speculation arises that Trump's family may be positioned to profit from these market fluctuations, suggesting a financial motive behind his public statements [13][19] Group 3: Broader Economic Impact - The ongoing trade conflict is not merely a dispute over agricultural products but reflects a broader struggle over industrial security and financial stability between the two nations [21] - Trump's public comments risk undermining the stability of U.S. financial markets, which are crucial for the credibility of the dollar [19] - The strategic nature of China's countermeasures demonstrates a calculated approach to target vulnerabilities in the U.S. economy, indicating a sophisticated level of economic warfare [21]

Core Viewpoint - China has shifted from negotiation to a hardline stance against the U.S., indicating a loss of patience with the Trump administration's trade policies [1][3][24] Group 1: China's Stance and Strategy - China has clearly demonstrated a confrontational position against the U.S., showing no easy path for compromise, reflecting confidence in its own strength in the trade war [3][24] - The Chinese government has consistently implemented reciprocal measures in response to U.S. tariffs, indicating a firm resolve to resist pressure [3][21] - The strategic use of rare earth controls serves as a significant countermeasure, impacting U.S. high-tech and military industries due to China's central role in the global rare earth supply chain [5][19] Group 2: Economic Impact and Market Diversification - The U.S. tariff measures are expected to negatively affect the domestic economy, as evidenced by the backlash from U.S. agricultural states against the Trump administration [5][19] - China's export market diversification has been effective, with the share of exports to the U.S. dropping from 19.2% in 2018 to an anticipated 10% by 2025, while exports to Europe, Russia, and other developing countries are on the rise [10][19] - The automotive sector, particularly electric vehicles, has seen significant growth, with exports exceeding 1.75 million units in the first three quarters of 2025, marking a nearly 90% year-on-year increase [10] Group 3: Technological Independence and Strategic Adjustments - China's advancements in technology, particularly in semiconductors, have led to a reduction in reliance on U.S. imports, with domestic alternatives emerging in response to U.S. export restrictions [13][19] - The strategic shift towards energy import diversification has strengthened China's position, reducing dependence on U.S. energy supplies and enhancing energy security [19][21] Group 4: Response to U.S. Actions - China's recent measures, including the escalation of rare earth controls, are seen as a logical response to the U.S.'s increasing pressure and sanctions [15][19] - The ongoing trade conflict is characterized by a series of U.S. measures aimed at China, which have prompted China to enhance its resilience and risk management strategies [15][19] - The outcome of this prolonged conflict will depend on the determination and preparedness of both sides, with China having established a comprehensive response system over the years [24]

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing U.S.-China trade tensions have led to the introduction of a special port fee for U.S. vessels docking in China, reflecting China's strategic response to U.S. sanctions and trade policies [1][3]. Group 1: Special Port Fee Implementation - Starting from October 14, 2025, all vessels related to the U.S. must pay a special port fee, which is a direct response to the U.S. 301 investigation and aims to protect China's trade interests [3]. - The fee will be charged based on the vessel's net tonnage, starting at 400 RMB per net ton from October 14, 2025, and increasing to 1,120 RMB per net ton by April 17, 2028 [5]. - U.S. cargo ships have already begun docking in Chinese ports and paying the special port fee, as evidenced by the "Manukau" container ship from Matson Navigation Company, which incurred a fee of 4.46 million RMB [5]. Group 2: Impact on Cruise Industry - The three major luxury cruise companies—Norwegian Cruise Line, Royal Caribbean Group, and Carnival Corporation—hold over 75% of the global market share and face significant challenges due to the high special port fees when docking in China [7]. - Two main strategies have emerged for U.S. cruise lines: canceling planned stops in China to avoid fees, as seen with the "RIVIERA" cruise ship, which would have incurred a fee of 11.67 million RMB [9], and applying for fee exemptions [9]. - The "Spectrum of the Seas" cruise ship from Royal Caribbean successfully obtained an exemption, allowing it to dock in China without incurring the fee, which would exceed 67 million RMB per stop by 2028 [12]. Group 3: Conditions for Exemption - To qualify for the exemption, U.S. cruise ships must primarily serve Chinese tourists and operate from Chinese ports, demonstrating China's flexible and consumer-oriented approach in enforcing the special port fee [13]. - The operation of the "Spectrum of the Seas" not only provides quality travel experiences for Chinese tourists but also stimulates domestic consumption, highlighting its importance in the Chinese market [15]. - For U.S. vessels that do not meet the exemption criteria, China will strictly enforce the special port fee policy, emphasizing that the fee is a countermeasure against U.S. maritime pressure rather than a financial necessity [15].

Core Insights - The recent statements by President Trump regarding the termination of trade cooperation with China in the edible oil sector are misleading, as he refers to "edible oil" as waste cooking oil, known as "gutter oil," which is crucial for producing biodiesel and sustainable aviation fuel [2][4][6] - The import of gutter oil from China to the U.S. has surged from less than 90,000 tons in 2020 to 1.27 million tons in 2024, marking a 14-fold increase, with the U.S. accounting for 43% of China's gutter oil exports [4][6] - Trump's threats to stop purchasing gutter oil could lead to significant consequences, including rising biofuel prices, increased costs in the aviation and transportation sectors, and a decline in the competitiveness of green energy in the U.S. [6][10] Industry Dynamics - China is expanding its market for gutter oil to Europe and Southeast Asia while developing its own sustainable aviation fuel industry, thereby building a self-sufficient supply chain [8][10] - The trade dynamics for soybeans have shifted, with China investing in infrastructure in Brazil and Argentina, resulting in a 56% year-on-year decrease in soybean imports from the U.S. in the first nine months of 2025 [8][10] - The U.S. is increasingly reliant on China for critical resources, including battery materials and rare earth elements, indicating a shift in the global trade landscape [10][12] Market Reactions - Following Trump's announcement, the U.S. stock market saw a loss of $450 billion in market value, while agricultural, biofuel, and technology stocks rose, reflecting investor skepticism about the feasibility of U.S. self-sufficiency in edible oil [6][12] - The market's quick response indicates a recognition that the U.S. cannot easily replace the imports of gutter oil from China [6]

Core Viewpoint - The intensifying trade conflict between China and the U.S. has led to significant retaliatory measures from China, particularly affecting critical sectors such as rare earth materials, high-tech industries, and military applications [1][3]. Group 1: U.S. Response - President Trump criticized China on social media, suggesting a potential 100% tariff increase, which resulted in a loss of $1.65 trillion in U.S. stock market value [3]. - U.S. Vice President Pence expressed a desire for rational negotiations with China, while Treasury Secretary Mnuchin indicated that the 100% tariff may not be implemented, highlighting a complex relationship [3]. - U.S. Trade Representative Lighthizer stated that the decision to impose tariffs depends on China's actions, reflecting a sense of arrogance and a belief in U.S. dominance in global trade [7][10]. Group 2: China's Position - China has firmly rejected U.S. attempts to negotiate under current conditions, emphasizing that high tariffs are not an acceptable approach to dealing with them [10]. - The Chinese government has indicated that it will not easily back down in the face of U.S. pressure, suggesting a shift towards a more aggressive stance in the trade conflict [12].