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原油价格上涨,油脂震荡偏强
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-06-10 02:56
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is neutral [4] Group 2: Report's Core View - Crude oil price increases support the prices of three major oils, causing them to fluctuate and strengthen [3] Group 3: Market Analysis Futures - The closing price of the palm oil 2509 contract was 8182.00 yuan/ton, a change of +72 yuan or +0.89% [1] - The closing price of the soybean oil 2509 contract was 7766.00 yuan/ton, a change of +28.00 yuan or +0.36% [1] - The closing price of the rapeseed oil 2509 contract was 9182.00 yuan/ton, a change of +42.00 yuan or +0.46% [1] Spot - The spot price of palm oil in Guangdong was 8550.00 yuan/ton, a change of +60.00 yuan or +0.71%, with a spot basis of P09 + 368.00, a change of -12.00 yuan [1] - The spot price of first - grade soybean oil in Tianjin was 7970.00 yuan/ton, a change of +50.00 yuan/ton or +0.63%, with a spot basis of Y09 + 204.00, a change of +22.00 yuan [1] - The spot price of fourth - grade rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 9380.00 yuan/ton, a change of +40.00 yuan or +0.43%, with a spot basis of OI09 + 198.00, a change of -2.00 yuan [1] Group 4: Recent Market Information Summary US Soybean Export - As of the week ending June 5, 2025, the US soybean export inspection volume was 547040 tons, compared to the previous week's revised 301459 tons [2] - This crop year to date, the cumulative US soybean export inspection volume was 45188245 tons, compared to 40543390 tons in the same period of the previous year [2] - As of the week ending June 5, 2025, the US shipped 0 tons of soybeans to China (Mainland), compared to 64998 tons the previous week [2] Russia Wheat - Russian agricultural consulting firm Sovecon raised its forecast for Russia's 2025 wheat production by 1.8 million tons to 82.8 million tons, and noted severe weather in Rostov [2] International Oilseed Prices - Canadian rapeseed (July shipment) C&F price was 595 dollars/ton, up 3 dollars/ton from the previous trading day [2] - US Gulf soybeans (July shipment) C&F price was 459 dollars/ton, up 2 dollars/ton from the previous trading day [2] - Brazilian soybeans (July shipment) C&F price was 451 dollars/ton, up 4 dollars/ton from the previous trading day [2] Import Soybean Premiums - The import soybean premium for the Gulf of Mexico (July shipment) was 210 cents/bushel, unchanged from the previous trading day [2] - The import soybean premium for the US West Coast (July shipment) was 183 cents/bushel, unchanged from the previous trading day [2] - The import soybean premium for Brazilian ports (July shipment) was 172 cents/bushel, up 4 cents/bushel from the previous trading day [2]
扎堆伊拉克,中小油气生产商有望化蛹成蝶?这家宝藏公司近水楼台!
市值风云· 2025-06-04 10:02
作者 | 闲彦 编辑 | 小白 全球贸易乱哄哄,特朗普的关税政策搅得投资者不得安宁,而他本人的一大政策就是死守传统能源、 对清洁能源说不。 比如他主张放松对油气开采的监管,个人的标志性口号"Drill, baby, drill!"(钻吧,宝贝,钻吧!)无 疑既想讨好油气领域的老金主们,又寄望这一政策能够压低油价,为通胀降温继而降息创造条件。 整整10年,杀不死你的,让你更强大。 50美元一桶,这是特朗普幕僚彼得·纳瓦罗给的目标价。 但是,能成为金主,智力自然是在线的,尤其是经历过自2014年以来的原油价格大跌甚至负油价,哪 怕是头猪,也该学到风险控制。 人教人,教不会,事教人,一次就够,尤其是记忆还热乎的时候。 美国的页岩油气开发商经过"生死劫"和各种兼并重组,早就转化成为一部部活脱脱的赚钱机器,现金 流成为核心考虑。 也因此,这类资产获得了包括巴菲特在内的诸多长期投资者的热烈追求。无他,便宜,黑乎乎的油就 是白花花的钱。 除了满足必要的资本开支、少见的并购机会,以及调整资本结构(还债),剩下的都分给股东,这就 是old money最喜欢的,不像是典型科技公司,全都拿去做回购,哪怕是持续高估。 在特朗普的号召 ...
燃料油日报:高硫油市场结构有转弱迹象-20250604
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-06-04 02:43
高硫油市场结构有转弱迹象 市场分析 上期所燃料油期货主力合约夜盘收跌0.03%,报2934元/吨;INE低硫燃料油期货主力合约夜盘收涨1.61%,报3535 元/吨。 燃料油日报 | 2025-06-04 原油价格在欧佩克会议后强势反弹,短期基本面较为稳固,市场存在一定支撑,但中期仍面临平衡表转为过剩的 压力。 就燃料油自身基本面而言,高硫燃料油市场结构出现边际转弱的迹象,内外盘月差、裂解价差、现货贴水均有所 走低。随着夏季临近,中东、埃及等地发电端需求逐步提升,为亚洲市场提供一定支撑。但由于高硫油裂解价差 过高,下游炼厂端需求受到压制,叠加欧佩克加速增产的计划,未来发电终端采购回落后市场将开始面临压力。 需要裂解价差下跌来吸引炼厂端的弹性需求。低硫燃料油方面,短期供应压力有限,市场结构持稳运行,但中期 仍面临船燃端需求份额被替代的矛盾。 策略 高硫方面:震荡 低硫方面:震荡 跨品种:关注逢高空FU裂解价差(FU-SC或FU-Brent)的机会 跨期:无 期现:无 期权:无 风险 宏观风险、关税风险、原油价格大幅波动等、发电端需求超预期、欧佩克增产不及预期 2025年期货市场研究报告 第1页 请仔细阅读本报告 ...
原油价格走低,油脂价格承压
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-05-23 04:39
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is Neutral [4] 2. Core View of the Report - Crude oil prices are falling, putting pressure on the prices of vegetable oils [1][3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - Futures: The closing price of the palm oil 2509 contract was 7,994 yuan/ton, a decrease of 110 yuan or 1.36% compared to the previous day; the closing price of the soybean oil 2509 contract was 7,760 yuan/ton, a decrease of 54 yuan or 0.69%; the closing price of the rapeseed oil 2509 contract was 9,405 yuan/ton, a decrease of 35 yuan or 0.37% [1] - Spot: In Guangdong, the spot price of palm oil was 8,560 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30 yuan or 0.35%, with a spot basis of P09 + 566 yuan, an increase of 80 yuan; in Tianjin, the spot price of first - grade soybean oil was 8,000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 40 yuan or 0.50%, with a spot basis of Y09 + 240 yuan, an increase of 14 yuan; in Jiangsu, the spot price of fourth - grade rapeseed oil was 9,590 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30 yuan or 0.31%, with a spot basis of OI09 + 185 yuan, an increase of 5 yuan [1] Recent Market Information Summary - Global soybean: The International Grains Council (IGC) maintained the 2025/26 global soybean production at 428 million tons, increased the trade volume by 2 million tons to 183 million tons, increased the consumption by 2 million tons to 429 million tons, and decreased the ending stocks by 2 million tons to 81 million tons [2] - Malaysian palm oil: In May, the palm oil production in Malaysia increased smoothly. From May 1 - 20, the production in South Malaysia increased by 3.7% month - on - month, with an average increase of 8.6% in the same period of the past 5 years. It is expected that the production in May will increase by about 5% month - on - month. In terms of exports, from May 1 - 20, the export volume increased by 5.25% month - on - month, with an average increase of 9.0% in the same period of the past 5 years. Due to Indonesia's increase in export fees, it is expected that the palm oil exports in Malaysia in May will increase by about 10% month - on - month [2] - International prices: The C&F price of Canadian rapeseed (June shipment) increased by 14 dollars/ton to 599 dollars/ton; the C&F price of Canadian rapeseed (July shipment) increased by 14 dollars/ton to 589 dollars/ton. The C&F price of Argentine soybean oil (June shipment) decreased by 6 dollars/ton to 1,097 dollars/ton; the C&F price of Argentine soybean oil (August shipment) decreased by 7 dollars/ton to 1,040 dollars/ton. The C&F price of Canadian rapeseed oil (June shipment) remained unchanged at 1,050 dollars/ton; the C&F price of Canadian rapeseed oil (August shipment) remained unchanged at 1,030 dollars/ton. The C&F price of US Gulf soybeans (June shipment) increased by 10 dollars/ton to 467 dollars/ton; the C&F price of US West soybeans (June shipment) increased by 10 dollars/ton to 462 dollars/ton; the C&F price of Brazilian soybeans (June shipment) increased by 9 dollars/ton to 444 dollars/ton. The import soybean premium for the Mexican Gulf (June shipment) remained unchanged at 212 cents/bushel; the import soybean premium for the US West Coast (June shipment) remained unchanged at 185 cents/bushel; the import soybean premium for Brazilian ports (June shipment) increased by 18 cents/bushel to 148 cents/bushel [2]
市场主流观点汇总-20250520
Guo Tou Qi Huo· 2025-05-20 10:48
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints The report objectively reflects the research views of futures and securities companies on various commodity varieties, tracks hot - spot varieties, analyzes market investment sentiment, and summarizes investment driving logics. It presents the market mainstream views on different asset classes, including their price trends, strategy viewpoints, and corresponding利多 and利空 logics [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Data - **Commodities**: From May 12 to May 16, 2025, ethylene glycol had the highest weekly increase of 5.74% among commodities, while gold had the largest decline of 4.64%. Other commodities like iron ore, PTA, etc., also had different degrees of price changes [3]. - **Equities**: The NASDAQ Index had a significant increase of 7.15%, the Hang Seng Index rose 2.09%, while the CSI 500 decreased by 0.10% [3]. - **Bonds**: Chinese government bonds of 5 - year, 2 - year, and 10 - year terms all had price increases, with the 5 - year bond rising 4.06% [3]. - **Foreign Exchange**: The US Dollar Index increased by 0.56%, while the Euro - US Dollar exchange rate decreased by 0.76% [3]. 3.2 Commodity Views 3.2.1 Macro - Financial Sector - **Stock Index Futures**: Among 9 institutions' views, 2 are bullish, 1 is bearish, and 6 are neutral.利多 factors include successful Sino - US tariff negotiations, a relatively loose market capital supply, and growth in the social financing scale.利空 factors are net out - flow of industry funds, reduction in ETF shares, and conservative domestic policies [5]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Among 7 institutions' views, 0 are bullish, 2 are bearish, and 5 are neutral.利多 factors are the unchanged loose monetary policy and reduced expectations of fiscal stimulus.利空 factors are the recovery of market risk appetite and limited space for further interest - rate cuts [5]. 3.2.2 Energy Sector - **Crude Oil**: Among 9 institutions' views, 2 are bullish, 3 are bearish, and 4 are neutral.利多 factors are low global crude oil inventories, positive Sino - US negotiation results, and potential uncertainty in OPEC+ production increases.利空 factors are Iran's potential nuclear - deal signing and an increase in US crude oil inventories [6]. 3.2.3 Agricultural Products Sector - **Palm Oil**: Among 7 institutions' views, 1 is bullish, 2 are bearish, and 4 are neutral.利多 factors are the growth of Malaysian palm oil shipping data, increased export competitiveness, and potential replenishment demand in India.利空 factors are high inventory pressure and a decline in crude oil prices [6]. 3.2.4 Non - Ferrous Metals Sector - **Copper**: Among 7 institutions' views, 1 is bullish, 1 is bearish, and 5 are neutral.利多 factors are low copper concentrate TC, positive Sino - US tariff negotiations, and strong terminal demand.利空 factors are weak overseas demand and high inventory in China [7]. 3.2.5 Chemical Sector - **Soda Ash**: Among 7 institutions' views, 1 is bullish, 2 are bearish, and 4 are neutral.利多 factors are concentrated maintenance in May and high exports.利空 factors are high industry inventory, new production capacity, and weak downstream demand [7]. 3.2.6 Precious Metals Sector - **Gold**: Among 7 institutions' views, 1 is bullish, 0 are bearish, and 6 are neutral.利多 factors are the downgrade of the US sovereign credit rating and geopolitical uncertainties.利空 factors are the recovery of risk appetite and capital out - flow from gold ETFs [8]. 3.2.7 Black Metals Sector - **Iron Ore**: Among 7 institutions' views, 1 is bullish, 1 is bearish, and 5 are neutral.利多 factors are high molten iron production and low port inventory.利空 factors are expected increase in supply and weakening demand [8].
原油成品油早报-20250514
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-05-14 11:53
Group 1: Report Information - Report Title: Crude Oil and Refined Oil Morning Report [2] - Date: May 14, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemicals Team of the Research Center [2] Group 2: Market Data Price Changes from May 7 - 13, 2025 - WTI crude oil rose from $58.07 to $63.67, an increase of $1.72 [3] - BRENT crude oil increased from $61.12 to $66.63, a gain of $1.67 [3] - DUBAI crude oil went up from $61.53 to $65.45, rising by $1.06 [3] - SC decreased by 2.80, OMAN increased by 1.12, and SC - BRT dropped by 1.98 [3] - Domestic gasoline price increased by 30.00, and domestic diesel price rose by 59.00 [3] - Japan naphtha - BRT decreased, Singapore 380 - BRT changed, and上期所FU - BRT decreased by 10.45 [3] -上期所BU - BRT decreased by 11.21, and HH natural gas decreased by 0.030 [3] - BFO increased by 1.06 [3] Group 3: Daily News - BofA: Saudi Aramco can quickly increase oil production at low cost, potentially raising daily output from about 9.4 million barrels to about 12 million barrels within weeks, with an estimated $12 billion increase in operating cash flow for every additional 1 million barrels per day [3] - Trump: Hopes to reach an agreement with Iran; if Iran refuses, will apply maximum pressure and reduce Iranian oil exports to zero [4] - Goldman Sachs: Given recent trade easing, expects an upward risk of about $3 - $4 per barrel for Brent/WTI crude oil prices in the remainder of 2025, with forecasts of $60/$56; 2026 price forecasts are $56/$52 [4] - US API crude oil inventory for the week ending May 9 was 4.287 million barrels, against an expected - 1.96 million barrels and a previous value of - 4.494 million barrels [4] - Iran - EU nuclear talks: Iran will hold talks with European parties in Istanbul on Friday. European powers may start the "snap - back sanctions" in August if no substantial agreement is reached [4] Group 4: Regional Fundamentals US EIA Data for the Week Ending May 2 - US crude oil exports decreased by 115,000 barrels per day to 4.006 million barrels per day [6] - US domestic crude oil production decreased by 98,000 barrels to 13.367 million barrels per day [6] - Commercial crude oil inventory (excluding strategic reserves) decreased by 2.032 million barrels to 438 million barrels, a 0.46% decline [6] - US strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) inventory increased by 580,000 barrels to 399.1 million barrels, a 0.15% increase [6] - US EIA gasoline inventory was 188,000 barrels, against an expected - 1.6 million barrels and a previous value of - 4.003 million barrels [6] - US EIA refined oil inventory was - 1.107 million barrels, against an expected - 1.271 million barrels and a previous value of 937,000 barrels [6] China's Market Situation - This week, the operating rates of major refineries and Shandong local refineries declined. China's gasoline and diesel production decreased, with both major and local refineries seeing drops in production and sales rates, and none achieving production - sales balance. Gasoline and diesel inventories decreased by over 4%. Major refineries' and local refineries' comprehensive profits rebounded [7] Group 5: Weekly View - After the holiday, oil prices rebounded slightly. With the Anglo - American trade agreement reached, the pessimistic expectations caused by previous tariffs eased, but the China - US tariff negotiation remains unclear. Geopolitically, the fourth round of Iran - US nuclear talks started in Oman [7] - Fundamentally, global oil products seasonally accumulate inventory. US commercial crude oil inventory is lower than in previous years. After the oil price decline, the number of US shale oil drilling rigs decreased rapidly, and the BW spread narrowed recently. Global refinery profits are recovering, but refineries are still in the maintenance period. US refinery operating rates recovered first, and US gasoline and diesel inventories are still low. With refining capacity elimination restricting supply, gasoline and diesel cracking has support, and it is expected to maintain a situation of stronger gasoline than diesel in the near term [7] - In China, refinery operating rates decreased slightly, gasoline and diesel inventories decreased significantly, and refinery profits recovered. In the short term, the rebound in refinery profits, the expected increase in refinery operating rates, the marginal improvement in macro - sentiment, and the decline in US production leading indicators support prices. Attention should be paid to whether the Iran - US talks achieve unexpected progress. In the long - term, crude oil remains in a bearish pattern due to OPEC's supply policy and supply - demand surplus [7]
终端制品出口预期好转 塑料短期内延续反弹修复
Jin Tou Wang· 2025-05-14 08:27
Group 1 - The main plastic futures contract experienced a rapid increase, reaching a peak of 7339.00 yuan, with a closing price of 7339.00 yuan, reflecting a rise of 2.66% [1] - Zhonghui Futures suggests a bearish outlook for plastic, citing an increase in supply with 2.08 million tons of new capacity from companies like Wanhua and the startup of Shandong New Era's facility [2] - Shenyin Wanguo Futures indicates that the short-term trend for plastic will continue to rebound and repair prices, supported by a recent rebound in international crude oil prices [3] Group 2 - The demand side shows a decline in agricultural film operating rates for four consecutive weeks, indicating weak demand [2] - The overall sentiment in the commodity market is positive due to the recent consensus reached during the China-US meeting, which may support plastic prices [3] - The recommendation from Zhonghui Futures is to gradually take profits on long positions and avoid chasing higher prices, while monitoring the price trends of crude oil and coal [2]
原油月报:关税政策影响下,三大机构下调需求预期-20250507
Xinda Securities· 2025-05-07 07:26
证券研究报告 行业研究——数据专题 [Tabl Table_StockAndRank] 石油加工行业 e_ReportType] | 本次评级——看好 | | --- | | 上次评级——看好 | 左前明 能源行业首席分析师 执业编号:S1500518070001 邮箱:zuoqianming@cindasc.com 刘奕麟 石化行业分析师 执业编号:S1500524040001 联系电话:13261695353 邮箱:liuyilin@cindasc.com 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDASECURITIESCO.,LTD 北京市西城区宣武门西大街甲127号金隅大 厦B座 邮编:100031 原油月报:关税政策影响下, [Table_Title三大机构下调需求预期 ] [Table_ReportDate0] 2025 年 5 月 7 日 | 原油价格回顾 5 | | --- | | 全球原油库存 6 | | 全球原油供给 8 | | 全球原油供给总览: 8 | | 全球主要区域原油供给情况: 9 | | 全球原油需求 18 | | 全球原油需求总览: 18 | | 全球主要区域原油需求情况: 20 | | ...
5-9月差走强,关注五一织造放假情况
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-04-27 02:51
期货研究报告|PX&PTA&PF&PR 周报 2025-04-27 5-9 月差走强,关注五一织造放假情况 策略摘要 基本面方面,特朗普对中国关税态度有所缓和,但问题依旧没有有效解决,直接出口 美国的纺服订单依然处于暂停状态,聚酯减产预期压制市场心态,关注后续中美谈判 情况,PX 和 PTA 依然维持低估值和去库状态,但在汽油弱势和需求预期偏弱的情况下 反弹幅度也有限,近期关注原油和宏观变动。短纤方面,当前美国关税逐步向好发 展,市场心态走稳,但追高意愿不足,五一期间部分纱厂有放假计划,原料囤货意愿 一般,行情维持震荡盘整。PR 方面,关税政策对瓶片自身需求影响较小,但瓶片负荷 回归高位,瓶片工厂加工区间有限,市场价格预计仍跟随原料成本波动。 核心观点 ■ 市场分析 成本端,原油价格先涨后跌。当前供需面多空消息交织,一方面宏观影响油价走势。 美伊及俄乌地缘政治风险降温。同时多个 OPEC+成员国计划在 6 月会议上提议加快增 产速度,原油供应压力持续;不过下半周特朗普表示不会解雇美联储主席鲍威尔,市 场恐慌指数回落,同时也表示将对中国关税大幅下降,宏观情绪改善推动油价反弹。 汽油和芳烃方面,汽油裂解偏弱运行, ...
豆粕日评-20250421
Zhong Hui Qi Huo· 2025-04-21 02:55
| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及投机支撑阻力 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 短线下跌 | 中美贸易加征关税事件进一步利多影响有限。南美大豆产量基本确定,美豆种植即 | | | | 将开启。国内港口及油厂大豆连续两周累库,本周大豆开机回升,预计下周豆粕库 | | | | 存有望逐步进入累库周期。4-6 月月均进口 1000 万吨以上。中美贸易对峙利多情绪 | | 豆粕 | | 转弱,昨日豆粕延续小幅收跌。豆粕焦点再度转入基本面,由于短期国内边际供应 | | | | 预计逐步增加,且国际层面美豆未来十五天降雨充沛,在缺乏基本面利多支持下, | | | | 豆粕短期偏弱偏空运行为主。主力【3050,2965】 | | | 短期下跌 | 国内菜粕库存远高于过去两年同期,加上 5 月国内迎来新季菜籽收获上市。菜粕短 | | | | 期供应预计充足。豆菜粕现货价差近日再度扩大至 600 元/吨以上,菜粕替代性下 | | 菜粕 | | 降。盘面上,受短期库存及供应压力影响,菜粕短期承压下跌,偏空对待。主力 | | | | 【2540,2660】 | | 棕榈油 | 短线反弹整理 | 4 月国际棕 ...