Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the oil processing industry Core Insights - The EIA and IEA have raised their global oil supply forecasts for 2025, with predictions of 10510.89 million barrels per day and 10460.15 million barrels per day respectively, reflecting an increase from 2024 [2][33] - Global oil demand is projected to increase in 2025, with IEA, EIA, and OPEC forecasting demand at 10368.24 million barrels per day, 10353.85 million barrels per day, and 10510.00 million barrels per day respectively [2][33] - Oil prices have shown a decline in the first half of 2025, with Brent crude down by 9.77% and WTI down by 10.78% since the beginning of the year [3][9] Summary by Sections Oil Supply - IEA, EIA, and OPEC predict global oil supply for 2025 at 10510.89, 10460.15, and 10396.00 million barrels per day respectively, with year-on-year increases of +209.60, +180.46, and +161.06 million barrels per day [2][33] - For Q3 2025, the predicted supply increases are +251.25, +226.71, and +171.59 million barrels per day [33] Oil Demand - The demand forecasts for 2025 are 10368.24 million barrels per day (IEA), 10353.85 million barrels per day (EIA), and 10510.00 million barrels per day (OPEC), with increases from 2024 of +70.42, +79.72, and +126.00 million barrels per day respectively [2][33] Oil Prices - As of July 23, 2025, Brent crude is priced at 68.51 USD/barrel, WTI at 65.25 USD/barrel, with respective declines of -2.85% and -4.76% over the past month [3][9] Oil Inventory - Predictions for global oil inventory changes in 2025 are +142.65 million barrels per day (IEA), +106.29 million barrels per day (EIA), and -114.00 million barrels per day (OPEC), with an average change of +44.98 million barrels per day [28][2] Related Companies - The report mentions several related companies including China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC), China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (Sinopec), and PetroChina [4]

Group 1: Oil Price Overview - As of the week ending August 1, 2025, oil prices have generally increased, influenced by a trade agreement between the US and Europe, and concerns over tightening supply due to potential sanctions on Russian oil buyers [2][3] - Brent crude futures settled at $69.67 per barrel, up $2.01 per barrel (+2.97%) from the previous week, while WTI crude futures settled at $67.33 per barrel, up $2.17 per barrel (+3.33%) [1][2] Group 2: Oil Supply and Demand in the US - As of the week ending July 25, 2025, US crude oil production was 13.314 million barrels per day, an increase of 41,000 barrels per day from the previous week [3] - The number of active drilling rigs in the US decreased by 5 to 410 rigs as of August 1, 2025, while the number of hydraulic fracturing fleets decreased by 1 to 167 [3] - US refinery crude processing volume was 16.911 million barrels per day, down 25,000 barrels per day from the previous week, with a refinery utilization rate of 95.40%, a decrease of 0.1 percentage points [3] Group 3: US Oil Inventory - As of the week ending July 25, 2025, total US crude oil inventory increased by 7.936 million barrels (+0.97%) to 829 million barrels, with strategic oil inventory rising by 238,000 barrels (+0.06%) and commercial crude inventory increasing by 7.698 million barrels (+1.84%) [3] - Cushing, Oklahoma crude oil inventory rose by 690,000 barrels (+3.16%) to 22.553 million barrels [3] Group 4: Related Companies - Relevant companies in the oil sector include China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC), China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (Sinopec), and China National Petroleum Corporation (PetroChina) [4]

Group 1 - OPEC+ agreed to significantly increase oil production in September, completing its current supply recovery plan a year ahead of schedule to regain market share [1] - The increase in production is approximately 548,000 barrels per day, reversing the previous reduction of 2.2 million barrels per day in August [1] - This marks the fourth consecutive month that OPEC+ has announced a production increase, which is expected to drive global oil supply expectations upward [1] Group 2 - In July, the average monthly prices for Brent and WTI were $69.5 and $67.2 per barrel, reflecting a decrease of 0.4% and 0.7% respectively compared to the previous month [3] - As of July 25, U.S. commercial crude oil inventories increased by 7.74 million barrels compared to the end of June, totaling 42,669 million barrels [3] - Geopolitical uncertainties and the peak consumption season are providing support for oil prices, but expectations of future inventory accumulation are limiting the upside potential for prices [3] Group 3 - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) projects global economic growth of 3.0% and 3.1% for 2025 and 2026, respectively, which is an upward revision from previous forecasts [3] - Based on these economic projections, Brent crude oil prices are expected to fluctuate within the range of $68 to $72 per barrel in the near term [3]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" for the oil and petrochemical sector, indicating an expectation of performance that exceeds the market benchmark by more than 5% over the next six months [3][61]. Core Insights - Significant increases in crude oil prices have been observed, with Brent crude futures settling at $72.51 per barrel, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 7.25%. WTI crude futures settled at $69.21 per barrel, up 6.30% from the previous month [1][7][11]. - China's crude oil export volume has surged dramatically, with a month-on-month increase of 611.63%, reaching 1,260,301.9 tons [2][49]. - The operational capacity utilization rate of U.S. refineries has risen to 95.4%, a 0.5 percentage point increase from the previous month, indicating a robust refining sector [1][24][25]. Summary by Sections 1. Crude Oil Prices - Brent crude futures price increased to $72.51 per barrel, a rise of $4.90 per barrel or 7.25% month-on-month. WTI crude futures price reached $69.21 per barrel, up $4.10 per barrel or 6.30% [7][9][11]. 2. Supply and Demand - OPEC's crude oil production increased to 27,235 thousand barrels per day in June, a month-on-month rise of 219 thousand barrels per day, or 0.81% [21][24]. - U.S. refinery crude oil production rose to 17.25 million barrels per day, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 0.48 million barrels per day, or 2.86% [24]. 3. Inventory - Total U.S. crude oil and petroleum product inventory increased to 1,660,512 thousand barrels, a month-on-month rise of 17,667 thousand barrels, or 1.08% [34][38]. 4. Imports and Exports - In June, U.S. crude oil imports averaged 6,115.50 thousand barrels per day, a month-on-month increase of 2.53%. Conversely, U.S. crude oil exports decreased by 5.71% to an average of 3,555.50 thousand barrels per day [2][43][49]. - China's crude oil imports rose to 4,989,000 tons, a month-on-month increase of 329,000 tons, or 7.06% [43][47].

Group 1 - International oil prices increased significantly, with light crude oil futures rising by $1.55 to $66.71 per barrel, a 2.38% increase, and Brent crude oil futures up by $1.60 to $70.04 per barrel, a 2.34% increase [1] - The U.S. and EU reached a trade agreement that imposes a 15% tariff on EU goods entering the U.S., while steel, aluminum, and copper products from the EU will continue to face a 50% tariff [2] - The EU plans to invest an additional $600 billion in the U.S. during Trump's second term, with expectations to purchase $750 billion in energy products from the U.S. by 2028 [2] Group 2 - Analysts noted that the U.S.-EU trade agreement removes a layer of uncertainty, shifting focus back to fundamental market conditions [2] - The OPEC and non-OPEC oil-producing countries emphasized the importance of adhering to production policies and submitting updated compensation reduction plans by August 15 for those not fully compliant [2]

原油成品油早报 研究中心能化团队 2025/07/24 | 日期 | WTI | BRENT | DUBAI | diff FOB dated bre | BRENT 1- | WTI-BREN | DUBAI-B | NYMEX RB | RBOB-BR | NYMEX | HO-BRT | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | 2月差 | T | RT（EFS | OB | T | HO | | | | | | | nt | | | | | | | | | 2025/07/17 | 67.54 | 69.52 | 70.24 | - | 1.00 | -1.98 | 1.58 | 217.04 | 21.64 | 246.46 | 33.99 | | 2025/07/18 | 67.34 | 69.28 | 70.17 | - | 0.88 | -1.94 | 1.71 | 215.34 | 21.16 | 245.30 | 33.75 | | 2025/07/21 | 6 ...

Report Overview - The report is an early morning report on crude oil and refined oil, released by the Energy and Chemicals Team of the Research Center on July 17, 2025 [2] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, crude oil prices fluctuated. The month spreads of the three major crude oil markets were oscillating at high levels. Policy-wise, the US plans to impose new tariffs on over 20 countries starting August 1st, and other trading partners may face a 15% - 20% comprehensive tariff. OPEC+ is discussing a suspension of production increases from October. Fundamentally, global oil inventories increased this week. US oil drilling decreased by 1, while fracturing increased. Refinery profits in Europe and the US strengthened week-on-week. The supply - demand contradiction in European diesel was prominent. The fundamentals of gasoline and diesel in Asia and China were neutral, with accelerated inventory accumulation in China and a decline in refinery profits. In the peak refinery season, the month spreads of crude oil are expected to remain oscillating at high levels. WTI and Brent are stronger than the Dubai market. The absolute price faces downward pressure in the medium - term due to OPEC's accelerated production increase and tariff policies. The suspension of production increase by OPEC+ in the fourth quarter does not change the situation. Attention should be paid to non - OPEC production and the change slope of demand after the peak season [6] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Data - **Crude Oil Prices**: From July 10 - 16, 2025, WTI prices changed from $66.57 to $66.38 (a decrease of $0.14), BRENT from $68.64 to $68.52 (a decrease of $0.19), and DUBAI from $69.81 to $69.93 (an increase of $0.07) [3] - **Product Prices**: Domestic gasoline prices decreased by $30.00 from July 10 - 16, 2025. Japan's naphtha CFR price and related spreads also showed certain changes, and Singapore's fuel oil 380CST premium increased by 1.55 [3] 3.2 Daily News - **US Shale Oil**: As WTI prices hover around $65, US shale oil drillers are scaling back operations. The slowdown is considered temporary, but tariffs and uncertainties are suppressing drilling activities [3] - **India's Oil Strategy**: In the first half of 2025, India's crude oil imports from Russia increased by 1% to about 1.75 million barrels per day. However, the discount of Urals crude to Brent has narrowed to $1.70 - 2 per barrel. The EU is discussing the 18th round of sanctions on Russia, which may lower the price cap to $45 [4] - **Saudi Arabia's Production Reporting**: Saudi Arabia adopted a new measurement standard to report June's crude oil production, making it meet the quota requirements. Its actual production was 9.75 million barrels per day, while the "market supply" was 9.36 million barrels per day [4] - **Iraq's Oil Production**: Drone attacks in Iraqi Kurdistan reduced oil production by 140,000 - 150,000 barrels per day [4] 3.3 Regional Fundamentals - **US Data**: In the week of July 11, US crude oil exports increased by 761,000 barrels per day to 3.518 million barrels per day; domestic production decreased by 10,000 barrels to 13.375 million barrels per day; commercial crude inventories (excluding strategic reserves) decreased by 3.859 million barrels to 422 million barrels (a 0.91% decrease); strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) inventories decreased by 300,000 barrels to 402.7 million barrels (a 0.07% decrease); commercial crude imports (excluding strategic reserves) increased by 366,000 barrels per day to 6.379 million barrels per day; the four - week average supply of US crude oil products was 20.262 million barrels per day, a 1.1% decrease from the same period last year [4][5] - **China Data**: This week, the operating rate of major refineries remained flat, and that of Shandong local refineries increased slightly. China's gasoline and diesel production both increased, with diesel inventory accumulation. The comprehensive profit of major refineries and local refineries decreased week - on - week [5]

Core Viewpoint - The Indian Oil Minister indicated that if crude oil prices remain at current levels, India may consider reducing fuel prices [1] Group 1 - The Indian government is monitoring crude oil prices closely and is open to adjusting fuel prices accordingly [1] - Current crude oil price levels are a significant factor influencing the decision on fuel price adjustments in India [1]

Core Viewpoint - The palm oil market is experiencing fluctuations due to a slight decrease in Malaysian palm oil production and positive export demand, while concerns about supply increases and declining international oil prices persist [2][3]. Group 1: Production Data - Malaysian palm oil production for June is estimated to decrease by 4.69%, with the peninsula increasing by 0.68% and significant reductions in Sabah (11.95%), Sarawak (8.98%), and Borneo (11.24%) [2]. - SPPOMA forecasts a 17.06% month-on-month decrease in palm oil production for the first 10 days of June, with a slight increase of 2.5% for the first 20 days [2]. Group 2: Export Data - High-frequency export data indicates that Malaysian palm oil exports are expected to increase by 8.07%-26.4% for the first 10 days of June, with a 10.88%-14.31% increase for the first 20 days [2]. Group 3: Market Analysis - According to Ruida Futures, the slight decrease in June production and good export demand may support palm oil prices, but caution remains due to potential supply increases and softening international oil prices [3]. - Donghai Futures notes that OPEC+ plans to increase production in August, which may pressure the oil market and limit the positive impact on international oilseed prices [3]. - The domestic market is seeing increased palm oil imports and commercial inventories, with a weak basis, while the overall market is expected to maintain a range-bound and slightly strong trend [3].

Group 1: U.S. Employment Data and Economic Outlook - The U.S. non-farm payrolls increased by 147,000 in June, significantly exceeding the expected 110,000, with the unemployment rate unexpectedly dropping to 4.1% [3] - This strong employment data indicates the resilience of the U.S. economy, leading to a reassessment of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy path [3] - Initial jobless claims fell to 233,000, marking a six-week low, which reflects ongoing tightness in the labor market [3] Group 2: Dollar Strength and Oil Prices - The robust employment data has led to a rebound in the U.S. dollar index, which is now around 97, providing cost support for oil priced in dollars [2][3] - The market's expectations for a rate cut in July have diminished, with the probability of a September rate cut dropping to around 80% [2] Group 3: OPEC+ Production and Geopolitical Risks - OPEC+ is set to discuss a plan to increase production by 411,000 barrels per day in August during their meeting on July 6, marking the fourth consecutive month of exceeding production expectations [4] - Saudi Arabia's crude oil exports rose by 450,000 barrels per day in June compared to May, reaching a new high in over a year, indicating a proactive approach to releasing production capacity [4] - The geopolitical risk premium has significantly decreased following a ceasefire agreement between Iran and Israel, reducing concerns over supply disruptions in the Middle East [4]