2025年黄金因避险资金涌入及美联储降息预期而飙升。 投资者预期明年将有两次以上降息。 地缘政治冲突、关税政策及央行购金亦是推手。 上涨趋势或将延续至2026年，目标直指5000美元整数关口。 2025年黄金涨幅突破50% 在ICMarkets重点关注的主要资产中，黄金成为2025年表现最亮眼的品种，年内累计涨幅约达60%。而标普500指数同期涨幅约为17%。 2025年贵金属迎来多重利好，但这引发关键疑问：其强劲涨势是否仍有足够动能延续？今年黄金屡创新高，主要受避险资金流入推动，且市场普遍预期美联 储可能需要以激进步伐重启降息周期。 美联储降息预期降低黄金的机会成本 美联储在观望大半年后于九月启动降息周期，当月降息25个基点，十月再度实施同等幅度降息。 尽管10月会议后市场对12月连续第三次降息的预期一度低迷，但因美国政府停摆延迟的经济数据暴露的疲软态势，加上包括纽约联储主席威廉姆斯在内的关 键决策者释放的鸽派信号，使降息概率攀升至约85%。展望2026年，市场仍预期将有约60个基点的额外宽松政策，相当于两次25个基点的降息，而第三次降 息的概率则悬而未决。 地缘政治冲突与关税政策推动避险需求 地缘政治紧张 ...

Economic Outlook - The global economy is entering a mild stagflation phase, with growth expected at 2.7% in 2025 and inflation at 3.9% [1] - Major economies like the US and UK are experiencing inflation rates above targets, while the Eurozone is gradually returning to normal [1] - Global trade growth is projected to slow from 2% in 2025 to 0.6% in 2026, with significant impacts on GDP for exporting countries [5] Central Bank Policies - Central banks are facing challenges of weak growth, persistent inflation, and rising fiscal deficits, leading to a divergence in monetary policies [7] - The Federal Reserve is expected to cut rates to a terminal range of 3.25-3.50% by mid-2026, while the European Central Bank will maintain stable rates [7] - The Bank of Japan is anticipated to continue raising rates towards 1.0% due to high core inflation [7] Trade and Investment - The ongoing trade war is primarily impacting exporters, with US consumers facing inflation increases of 0.6 percentage points by mid-2026 [5] - Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) pledges in the US could reach 6% of GDP by 2026-2028, indicating significant costs for source countries [5] - The EU's "Rearm Europe Plan" allocates EUR800 billion over four years for military procurement, but production constraints may hinder rapid capacity increases [11] Corporate Financing - Companies are adapting to high financing costs by enhancing operational efficiency, renegotiating contracts, and exploring alternative financing sources [12] - Despite lower policy rates, corporate loan demand remains muted in the Eurozone, while the US sees an increase in corporate loans [12] - A peak in global business insolvencies is expected in 2027, with increases of 6% and 4% in 2025 and 2026, respectively [13] Emerging Markets - Emerging markets are experiencing rising imbalances, with some countries facing debt and current account deficit risks [15] - Asian exporters are gaining market shares in the US, but the economic outlook is turning grim, leading to accelerated policy rate cuts in many emerging markets [15] - The Chinese economy is expected to slow down into 2026 due to contracting exports and soft domestic demand [15] Risks and Uncertainties - Heightened protectionism poses a 45% probability of leading to a global trade recession, negatively impacting growth and inflation [16] - A potential de-dollarization shock could push the EUR/USD above 1.25, with a 35% probability [16] - Geopolitical tensions, including conflicts involving NATO and Russia, as well as China and Taiwan, present significant risks to the economic outlook [16]

近日，俄罗斯总统普京在俄罗斯在召唤投资论坛上的一番表态，令本已紧张的俄乌冲突局势再添变数。 当普京被问及是否会与欧盟直接对抗时，他明确表示俄罗斯无意主动挑起战争。但如果欧洲坚持发动战 争，俄罗斯已经做好了充分的准备，并且俄军对待欧洲的作战方式将与在乌克兰的不同，冲突将以没有 谈判空间的方式迅速结束。 普京的这一强硬言辞不仅让市场对地缘政治冲突加剧感到更加担忧，也使得A股军工板块成为了资本关 注的焦点。地缘政治局势一直以来都是军工板块的催化剂，而普京关于与欧洲开战的表态，背后有着强 大的军事力量做支撑，并非仅仅是外交上的空洞言辞。 俄罗斯已经完成了两大专属军区的组建，专门应对与欧洲的潜在冲突。到2025年，俄罗斯将接收四架先 进的战略轰炸机和一艘新型战略核潜艇，且其无人机的月产量已突破5000架，具备了覆盖欧洲主要地区 的远程打击能力与饱和作战能力。同时，欧洲多个国家也在不断增加对乌克兰的军事援助，并且扩充自 身的军备，这使得全球安全格局的脆弱性愈加凸显。这种对冲突升级的预期推动了军事投入的加大，也 为军工板块提供了强劲的上涨动力。 从产业基本面来看，A股军工板块的业绩支撑已经愈加稳固。中国的国防预算持续增长， ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in silver prices, reaching historical highs, is primarily driven by a supply-demand imbalance, with significant increases in industrial demand and declining supply [3][4][5]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply side is constrained by a continuous decline in global silver mine production, projected to drop to 25,200 tons in 2024, an 8.3% year-on-year decrease [3]. - The demand side has seen explosive growth, particularly in high-tech industries such as photovoltaics, semiconductors, and electric vehicles, with global photovoltaic silver usage expected to reach 6,147 tons in 2024, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of 15.09% from 2014 to 2024 [4]. - Global silver inventories are at multi-year lows, with the Shanghai Futures Exchange silver inventory falling to 559 tons, the lowest since 2015, and the New York Mercantile Exchange silver inventory decreasing by nearly 16.5% to 142,000 tons [4][5]. Market Sentiment and External Factors - Expectations of continued macroeconomic policy easing, geopolitical tensions, and rising gold prices are contributing to heightened market sentiment and driving silver prices higher [6]. - The current gold-silver ratio remains historically high, suggesting that silver is undervalued compared to gold, attracting speculative investments [6]. Investment Considerations - The volatility of silver prices is significantly higher than that of gold, with historical data indicating sharp price fluctuations [7]. - Investors are advised to adopt a cautious approach, avoiding high leverage and considering gradual investments to mitigate price volatility risks [7][8]. - Holding physical silver is not recommended due to storage challenges and potential oxidation; instead, silver ETFs are suggested as a more suitable investment vehicle for ordinary investors [8].

智通财经APP获悉，从能源到大宗矿石等大宗商品的全球海运费率，正走向一次极为罕见的年末飙升，持续上演的地 缘政治冲突、西方国家制裁举措以及不断攀升的产量正在颠覆全球海运供应线路。当前出现的年末运费暴涨凸显出 需求端并未如期"冬眠"，反而被AI基础设施+能源+大宗复苏顶着往上冲，而供给端则被地缘冲突和制裁"人为缩 水"，有效运力被拉长、被锁死，在短期运力基本固定的行业里，最终的结果就是——价钱突然间爆到天花板。 在全球关键航线上运输庞大原油产品的日收益今年以来出现了最大涨幅，大幅上涨了467%——年初到11月底基准航 线日收益的累计涨幅;而运输液化天然气以及铁矿石等商品的费率则分别上涨超过四倍和两倍。由于海运往往呈现出 明显的需求季节性走弱，运费成本通常在年末显著回落。 上图显示，全球运费市场已有相当长一段时间未如此乐观，2025年全球范围内的主要航线关键船型年内运输价涨幅 巨大。这里指的是今年以来到11月底，关键原油航线日运费(等价期租)的年内累计涨幅。 "我们看到的是一个老派并且运输产能极度紧张的实物流运市场，"运营包括超大型原油运输船在内油轮船队的 Frontline Management AS首席执行官 ...

Core Viewpoint - Hai'an Group, a new stock listed on the Shenzhen Main Board, specializes in the research, production, and sales of giant all-steel radial engineering tires and mining tire operation management, positioning itself as a key player in the domestic market against international competitors [1][2]. Group 1: Company Overview - Hai'an Group is recognized as a national high-tech enterprise and has received accolades such as the "National Specialized and Innovative 'Little Giant' Enterprise" in 2021 and "Service-oriented Manufacturing Demonstration Enterprise" in 2018 [1]. - The company has become the third global manufacturer capable of mass production of a full range of specifications for all-steel giant tires, following Michelin and Bridgestone [2]. Group 2: Market Position and Growth - The global market for all-steel giant tires has seen growth from 167,000 units in 2017 to 215,000 units in 2022, with a compound annual growth rate of 5.18%, indicating a persistent supply-demand imbalance [1]. - In 2022, Hai'an Group ranked first in domestic production and fourth globally for giant tire output, with significant clients including well-known domestic companies and international firms [2]. Group 3: International Expansion - The company has established 12 overseas subsidiaries or branches, with over 75% of its revenue coming from international sales, highlighting its global market reach [2]. - The exit of major international brands from the Russian market has allowed Hai'an Group to significantly increase its sales in that region, with overseas sales accounting for 65.19% to 67.18% of its main business revenue from 2022 to mid-2025 [3]. Group 4: Risks and Challenges - The company acknowledges potential risks from international trade tensions and geopolitical conflicts, which could significantly impact its revenue, particularly from overseas markets [3].

Core Viewpoint - Haian Group (001233.SZ) has successfully listed on the Shenzhen Main Board, focusing on the research, production, and sales of giant all-steel engineering radial tires and mining tire operation management, positioning itself as a key player in the domestic and global tire manufacturing industry [1][5]. Company Overview - Haian Group is recognized as a national high-tech enterprise and has received accolades such as the "National Specialized and Innovative 'Little Giant' Enterprise" in 2021 and "Service-oriented Manufacturing Demonstration Enterprise" in 2018 [1]. - The company specializes in giant engineering tires, which are defined as tires with a rim diameter of 49 inches or more, primarily used in large mining dump trucks and loaders [5]. Market Position - Haian Group ranks first in domestic production and fourth globally in the giant tire market, benefiting from a significant market share despite the dominance of international brands [6]. - The global market for all-steel giant tires has seen growth from 167,000 units in 2017 to 215,000 units in 2022, with a compound annual growth rate of 5.18% [5]. Financial Metrics - The IPO price was set at 48.00 CNY per share, with an institutional offering price of 48.93 CNY, and a price-to-earnings ratio of 13.94 compared to the industry average of 26.38 [2]. - The company reported a performance increase of 400% [2]. Production and Expansion Plans - The company has outlined several key projects, including: - Expansion of all-steel giant engineering radial tire production with an investment of 19.45 million CNY (65.90% of total investment) - Automation upgrades for production lines at 3.71 million CNY (12.56%) - Construction of a research and development center at 2.86 million CNY (9.69%) - Supplementing working capital at 3.50 million CNY (11.86%) [4]. Global Sales and Clientele - Haian Group has established a strong global presence, with over 75% of its revenue coming from international sales, including significant sales in the Russian market following the exit of major competitors [6]. - The company serves notable clients such as Zijin Mining, XCMG, and Ural Mining and Metallurgical Company [6]. Industry Challenges - The company faces potential risks from international trade tensions and geopolitical conflicts, which could significantly impact its profit margins [7].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - The precious metals market continued its volatile adjustment pattern during the session. The preliminary value of the US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI in November was 51.9, a 4 - month low, while the service industry index was 55, with the employment sub - item declining. The labor market faces further downward risks. The probability of a Fed rate cut in December has risen from 40% to 70%, potentially benefiting precious metal prices. Geopolitically, the US and Ukraine are negotiating a cease - fire, but the military conflict between Russia and Ukraine continues. In the short term, the precious metals market lacks clear positive factors, and gold and silver prices will enter a range - bound period. In the long term, the US government's debt pressure weakens the US dollar's credit foundation, and gold remains attractive. The recommended price range for the Shanghai Gold 2602 contract is 900 - 950 yuan/gram, and for the Shanghai Silver 2602 contract is 11500 - 12300 yuan/kilogram [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai Gold main contract was 930.32 yuan/gram, up 3.38 yuan; the closing price of the Shanghai Silver main contract was 11808 yuan/kilogram, up 128 yuan. The main contract positions of Shanghai Gold were 164620 hands, up 4310 hands; those of Shanghai Silver were 347468 hands, up 830 hands. The net positions of the top 20 in the Shanghai Gold main contract were 106620 hands, up 1060 hands; those of Shanghai Silver were 91476 hands, up 4192 hands. The warehouse receipt quantity of gold was 0 kilograms, unchanged; that of silver was 0 kilograms, unchanged [2] 现货市场 - The spot price of gold on the Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network was 925.39 yuan/gram, down 2.11 yuan; the spot price of silver was 11818 yuan/kilogram, down 97 yuan. The basis of the Shanghai Gold main contract was - 4.93 yuan/gram, down 5.49 yuan; the basis of the Shanghai Silver main contract was 10 yuan/kilogram, down 225 yuan [2] Supply and Demand Situation - The gold ETF holdings were 1040.57 tons, up 1.14 tons; the silver ETF holdings were 15257.92 tons, up 11.29 tons. The non - commercial net positions of gold in CFTC were 231956 contracts, down 20952 contracts; those of silver were 46217 contracts, down 3522 contracts. The total supply of gold in the quarter was 1248.76 tons, up 42.73 tons; the total supply of silver in the year was 987.8 million troy ounces, down 21.4 million troy ounces. The total demand for gold in the quarter was 1313.07 tons, up 86.25 tons; the global total demand for silver in the year was 1195 million ounces, down 47.4 million ounces [2] Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of gold was 22.13%, up 0.18%; the 40 - day historical volatility was 28.38%, down 0.12%. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for gold was 22.09%, down 3.17%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for gold was 22.09%, down 3.17% [2] Industry News - Ukraine's Zelensky reported multiple rounds of high - level peace talks in Geneva, Switzerland, saying that "substantive dialogue" had begun, but the specific plan was still highly uncertain. The US Treasury Secretary said that the government shutdown caused a permanent loss of $11 billion to the US GDP, and the overall economy was not at risk of recession. Multiple Fed officials signaled a rate cut, and after their speeches, the market's bet on a Fed rate cut in December exceeded 50% [2]

Core Viewpoint - The recent increase in domestic gasoline and diesel prices by 70 yuan per ton is attributed to fluctuations in international oil prices, with expectations of a potential stabilization or slight increase in the next pricing cycle [1][4][6] Group 1: Price Adjustments - Domestic gasoline and diesel prices have been raised by 70 yuan per ton, translating to an increase of 0.05 yuan per liter for 92 gasoline and 0.06 yuan for 0 diesel [1][4] - Consumers filling a 50L tank of 92 gasoline will incur an additional cost of 2.5 yuan due to this price adjustment [1][4] - The price range for 92 gasoline post-adjustment is between 7.25 to 7.45 yuan per liter, while diesel prices range from 6.86 to 7.06 yuan per liter [5] Group 2: International Oil Market Dynamics - The international oil market has experienced mixed trends, with WTI crude oil prices fluctuating around 70 dollars per barrel, reaching 70.13 dollars on July 30 before dropping below that level again [2][3] - OPEC's crude oil production increased by 70,000 barrels per day in July, reaching a new high for 2018 at 32.64 million barrels per day [2] - Russia's oil production also rose to 4.7429 million tons per day in July, exceeding commitments made in previous OPEC meetings [2] Group 3: Future Price Expectations - Analysts predict that the next round of fuel price adjustments, scheduled for August 20, may result in either a stabilization or a slight increase in prices due to ongoing geopolitical tensions and production increases from oil-producing countries [6] - The interplay of geopolitical crises, production levels, and a strengthening dollar is expected to create a volatile environment for oil prices, with a low likelihood of a one-sided market trend [6]

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - Spot prices have reached a short - term peak, and the futures market has declined, which is in line with the report's expectations. The core issue is the direction of spot freight rates, and the main contract may be in the bottom - building process. It is recommended to participate with a light position or wait and see. Attention should be paid to tariff policies, the Middle - East situation, and spot freight rates [2][4]. - The market has intense long - short competition, with no obvious trading direction, and the futures market is weakly volatile [4]. Group 3: Summary by Related Content Freight Index - On November 17, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 1357.67 points, down 9.8% from the previous period; the SCFIS for the US - West route was 1238.42 points, down 6.9% from the previous period. The Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) announced a price of 1451.38 points, down 43.72 points from the previous period. The SCFI European line price was 1417 USD/TEU, up 7.1% from the previous period; the SCFI US - West route was 1823 USD/FEU, down 17.59% from the previous period [3]. - On November 14, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) (composite index) was 999.69 points, down 5.12% from the previous period; the NCFI (European route) was 979.34 points, up 7.42% from the previous period; the NCFI (US - West route) was 1052.43 points, down 21.99% from the previous period. The China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) (composite index) was 1094.03 points, up 3.4% from the previous period; the CCFI (European route) was 1403.64 points, up 2.7% from the previous period; the CCFI (US - West route) was 846.24 points, up 3.9% from the previous period [3]. Economic Data - In October, China's Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) was 49.0%, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, and the manufacturing prosperity level declined. The Composite PMI Output Index was 50.0%, down 0.6 percentage points from the previous month, indicating that the overall production and operation activities of Chinese enterprises were stable [4]. - The preliminary value of the Eurozone's manufacturing PMI in October was 45.9 (expected 45.1, previous value 45); the preliminary value of the service - sector PMI was 51.2 (expected 51.5, previous value 51.4); the preliminary value of the composite PMI was 49.7 (expected 49.7, previous value 49.6). The Eurozone's Sentix Investor Confidence Index in October had a previous value of - 9.2 and a forecast value of - 8.5 [3]. - The preliminary value of the US S&P Global Services PMI in October was 55.2 (expected 53.5, previous value 54.2); the preliminary value of the manufacturing PMI was 52.2 (expected 52, previous value 52); the preliminary value of the composite PMI was 54.8 (expected 53.1, previous value 53.9) [4]. Contract Information - On November 20, the main contract 2602 closed at 1631.0, down 1.39%, with a trading volume of 32,800 lots and an open interest of 42,000 lots, an increase of 1785 lots from the previous day [4]. Strategy - Short - term strategy: The main contract has pulled back, and the far - month contracts are relatively strong. Risk - preferring investors have been advised to lightly test long positions in the EC2602 contract in the 1550 - 1600 range and have been advised to take partial profits. Attention should be paid to the spot trend, and it is not recommended to hold losing positions. Set stop - losses [5]. - Arbitrage strategy: Against the background of international turmoil, each contract still follows the seasonal logic with large fluctuations. It is recommended to wait and see or lightly test positions [5]. - Long - term strategy: Each contract has been advised to take profits when it rises and wait for the price to stabilize after a pullback before judging the subsequent direction [5]. Contract Adjustments - The daily limit for contracts 2508 - 2606 has been adjusted to 18% [5]. - The company's margin for contracts 2508 - 2606 has been adjusted to 28% [5]. - The daily opening limit for all contracts 2508 - 2606 is 100 lots [5].