Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - The current spot gold price is around $3316, having previously peaked at $3403, a four-week high, before retreating due to eased trade tensions between the US and China [1] - Silver prices have surpassed $35, reaching a 13-year high, contributing to the rise in gold prices [1] - The market is focused on upcoming non-farm payroll data and the Federal Reserve's meeting on June 17-18 to gauge short-term gold price movements [1] Group 2: Technical Analysis of Gold - On the daily chart, gold is in a consolidation phase with a narrowing Bollinger Band, indicating a stalemate between bulls and bears [3] - The MACD shows a potential bullish crossover, while the RSI is around 55, suggesting intense market competition [3] - Key support is identified at $3300, with resistance levels at $3335-$3345 [3] Group 3: Oil Market Analysis - Brent crude oil prices are stable around $65 per barrel, marking the first weekly rebound since mid-May, while WTI is near $63 [4] - The market's fear of panic selling has decreased as macroeconomic uncertainties ease, but the underlying support for oil prices remains fragile [4] - Future oil price trends will depend on OPEC+'s production decisions and market expectations of oversupply by year-end [4] Group 4: Technical Analysis of Oil - The mid-term trend for oil prices is downward, with a potential bearish flag pattern forming after hitting a low of $55.20 [5] - Short-term movements indicate a consolidation phase, with expectations of testing lower support levels around $63-$62 [5] - The recommended trading strategy is to focus on buying on dips and selling on rebounds, with key resistance at $66-$67 and support at $63-$62 [5]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - There is no explicit overall industry investment rating provided in the report. However, investment suggestions are given for different sectors, including "long - position reduction", "short - selling opportunities", "interval trading", etc. [1] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The market shows complex trends due to various factors such as economic data, policy changes, and supply - demand relationships across different commodity sectors. The overall market sentiment is affected by factors like the US consumer confidence index, inflation expectations, and geopolitical events. [1] Group 3: Summaries by Related Catalogs Macro - Financial - For stock index futures, it is recommended to consider reducing long positions and be vigilant about further adjustment risks [1]. - The bond futures are supported by asset shortage and weak economy in the long - term, but the short - term rise is suppressed by the central bank's interest - rate risk reminder [1]. - Gold prices may enter a consolidation phase in the short - term, while the long - term upward logic remains unchanged. Silver prices may be more resilient than gold in the short - term due to potential tariff impacts [1]. Non - Ferrous Metals - Copper prices are expected to be weak in the short - term due to lower downstream demand and other factors [1]. - Aluminum prices will remain strong in the short - term supported by low inventory and alumina price rebounds. Alumina prices continue to rise due to supply disruptions [1]. - Zinc fundamentals are weak, and it is recommended to look for short - selling opportunities [1]. - Nickel prices will oscillate in the short - term and face long - term oversupply pressure. Short - term interval trading is suggested [1]. - Stainless steel futures will oscillate in the short - term with long - term supply pressure. Interval trading is recommended [1]. - Tin prices have strong fundamental support before the复产 of Wa State [1]. Chemicals - Silicon presents a situation of strong supply, weak demand, and low - valuation, with no improvement in demand and high inventory pressure [1]. - Lithium carbonate has no further supply contraction, increasing inventory, and downstream rigid - demand purchasing [1]. - For methanol, the short - term spot market will trade in a range, and the long - term market may turn from strong to weak and oscillate [1]. - PVC has weak fundamentals but is boosted by macro - factors, and its price will oscillate [1]. - LPG prices are expected to decline in the short - term due to tariff easing and demand off - season [1]. Black Metals - Rebar is in a window of switching from peak to off - season, with cost loosening and a supply - demand surplus, lacking upward momentum [1]. - Iron ore prices will oscillate, and manganese ore prices are expected to decline due to oversupply [1]. - Coke and coking coal are in a relatively oversupplied situation, and it is recommended to take advantage of price rebounds for hedging [1]. Agricultural Products - Brazilian sugar production in the 2025/26 season is expected to reach a record high, but it may be affected by crude oil prices [1]. - Grains are expected to oscillate, and a strategy of buying on dips is recommended considering the tight annual supply - demand situation [1]. - Soybean prices are expected to oscillate due to lack of speculation and market pressure [1]. - Cotton prices are expected to oscillate weakly as the domestic cotton - spinning industry enters the off - season [1]. - Pulp prices will oscillate due to lack of upward momentum after the tariff - related boost [1]. - Livestock prices will oscillate as the pig inventory recovers and the market is in a state of abundant supply expectation [1]. Energy - Crude oil and fuel oil prices are affected by the progress of the Iran nuclear deal and the end of the Sino - US trade negotiation drive [1]. - Asphalt prices will oscillate as cost drags, inventory returns to normal, and demand slowly recovers [1]. - Natural rubber prices are affected by rainfall, cost support, and the end of the trade negotiation drive [1].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Cautiously bearish; Arbitrage: On hold [3] 2) Core View of the Report - In the off - season of consumption, the supply and demand of lead may show a pattern of both weakness. Macro uncertainties will also continuously interfere with the trend of non - ferrous metals. It is recommended to conduct sell - hedging operations around 17,200 yuan/ton [3] 3) Summary by Related Content Market News and Important Data - **Spot Market**: On May 8, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was - 16.08 dollars/ton. SMM1 lead ingot spot price increased by 75 yuan/ton to 16,625 yuan/ton. The spot premiums of different regions changed to varying degrees. The lead scrap price differential remained unchanged at - 25 yuan/ton, and the prices of waste batteries also had different changes [1] - **Futures Market**: On May 8, 2025, the SHFE lead main contract opened at 16,720 yuan/ton, closed at 16,775 yuan/ton, up 75 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 39,686 lots, a decrease of 5,276 lots, and the position was 34,382 lots, a decrease of 2,547 lots. The night - session closed flat with the afternoon session [1] Supply and Demand and Inventory - **Supply and Demand**: The inventory pressure of smelting enterprises in Henan increased, and the price difference between different regions' smelting enterprises and traders widened. Downstream enterprises mainly digested finished product inventories, with poor procurement enthusiasm and light trading in the spot market [2] - **Inventory**: On May 8, 2025, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 48,000 tons, an increase of 1,600 tons from last week. As of May 8, the LME lead inventory was 255,150 tons, a decrease of 1,550 tons from the previous trading day [2] Strategy - **Unilateral**: Cautiously bearish, suggesting sell - hedging operations around 17,200 yuan/ton [3] - **Arbitrage**: On hold [3]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Revenue for Q1 2025 was $228.8 million, an 11.4% increase year-over-year, with currency headwinds of approximately 3.3% [6][13] - Adjusted EBITDA was $89.4 million, up approximately 14% year-over-year, with an adjusted EBITDA margin of 39.1%, reflecting a 100 basis point increase from the previous year [6][14] - Adjusted EPS was $0.87, a 21% increase year-over-year, driven by strong adjusted EBITDA growth and lower interest expenses [7][14] - Operating cash flows generated were approximately $37.6 million, with liquidity remaining strong at approximately $460 million as of March 31 [7][22] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Merchant Acquiring revenue grew 11% year-over-year to $47.6 million, benefiting from improved spreads and increased sales volumes [8][15] - Payments Puerto Rico revenue increased by 4% to $55.2 million, driven by ATH Mobile and higher POS transaction volumes [9][16] - Latin America Payments and Solutions revenue grew 13% year-over-year to $83.8 million, or 22% in constant currency, with strong organic growth driven by the GETNA Chile relationship [10][18] - Business Solutions revenue increased by 13% to $65.6 million, primarily due to key projects and one-time hardware and software sales [19] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The Puerto Rico economy remains stable, with total employment increasing and an unemployment rate around 5.5% [9] - LATAM revenue grew 13% year-over-year, with organic growth driven by initiatives in Brazil and the GETNA Chile relationship [10][18] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company continues to focus on M&A as a key part of its strategy, with a robust pipeline of potential acquisitions [33] - The company is optimistic about its ability to navigate through macroeconomic uncertainties and is closely monitoring potential impacts on its business [26] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management noted strong consumer confidence contributing to performance across segments, particularly in Merchant Acquiring and Latin America [30] - The company expects constant currency revenue growth for 2025 to be between $903 million to $911 million, representing a growth of 6.8% to 7.7% year-over-year [23] - Management acknowledged potential headwinds from customer attrition, particularly with MercadoLibre, impacting future performance [24] Other Important Information - The company has not seen material disruptions in any business segments but remains cautious about potential indirect impacts from tariffs and economic conditions in the countries served [11][12] - The adjusted effective tax rate for the quarter was 5.3%, aligning with expectations [14] Q&A Session Summary Question: Revenue performance and outperformance relative to expectations - Management indicated that all segments outperformed original expectations, with strong consumer confidence and volume growth contributing to the results [30] Question: M&A strategy and positioning - The company remains focused on M&A, with a robust pipeline and optimism about potential acquisitions [33] Question: Performance in Brazil and relative growth - Management noted that Brazil's growth is back within expectations, driven by leadership changes and specific initiatives [39] Question: Economic conditions in LATAM and potential monitoring - Brazil is highlighted as a significant area to monitor due to currency fluctuations and economic conditions [40] Question: GetNet Chile partnership and its impact - The GetNet partnership is fully rolled out, contributing to strong performance, with over 200,000 active merchants using the technology [49] Question: Merchant margins and future trends - Margins are expected to face pressure moving forward due to the lapping of pricing actions and a decline in average ticket size [56] Question: Impact of MercadoLibre exit on future quarters - The impact of MercadoLibre's exit will not be fully felt until Q3, with partial effects expected in Q2 [58] Question: Benefits from hurricane relief funds in Puerto Rico - Management expects continued flow of relief funds, contributing to economic resilience in Puerto Rico [61]

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Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Revenues increased by 16% year-over-year, while expenses remained flat [6][24] - Pre-provision net revenue rose by over $90 million from the previous quarter [6] - Earnings per share for the first quarter were reported at 33 cents [24] - Tax-equivalent net interest income was $1.1 billion, up 4% sequentially and 25% year-over-year [24] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Commercial loans increased by $1.5 billion, or 3%, while consumer loans were intentionally reduced [27] - Investment banking fees reached a record of $175 million for the first quarter, up 3% from the previous year [35] - Non-interest income was $668 million, reflecting a 3% year-over-year increase [32] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Deposits grew by mid-single digits year-over-year, with non-interest-bearing deposits stable at about 19% of total deposits [18][29] - Average loans were up about half a billion dollars to $105 billion on a period-end basis [26] - Interest-bearing deposit costs decreased by 18 basis points during the quarter [30] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on navigating macroeconomic uncertainties while maintaining strong client relationships and community investments [9][12] - A strategic minority investment from Scotiabank has positioned the company for future growth and agility [13] - The company aims to leverage its balance sheet to support clients during market dislocations [14][19] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in avoiding a recession despite current uncertainties, citing strong credit quality and client backlogs [52][62] - The company is prepared for various economic scenarios, including stagflation [53] - Future performance may be impacted by macroeconomic conditions, but management remains optimistic about achieving financial commitments for 2025 [41][42] Other Important Information - The CET1 ratio was reported at 11.8%, indicating a strong capital position [40] - A $1 billion share repurchase authorization was announced, expected to commence in the second half of the year [21][22] Q&A Session Summary Question: How to reconcile the uncertain macro environment with the unchanged guidance? - Management acknowledged the uncertainty but emphasized the strength of the credit book and client backlogs, indicating a cautious optimism [52][53] Question: What is the outlook for C&I loan growth? - Management noted strong C&I loan growth driven by new teams and project-based deals, with expectations for continued growth [76][77] Question: What are the drivers for achieving the 20% net interest income growth? - Management highlighted the impact of previous restructuring actions and robust pipelines, while acknowledging potential risks from economic conditions [80][82] Question: How will the company handle potential CapEx project delays? - Existing projects are expected to continue, but new projects may be delayed until there is more clarity in the market [95] Question: What is the strategy for the share buyback program? - The company plans to maintain flexibility regarding the timing and pace of buybacks, depending on economic clarity [101][102]

Core Viewpoint - RH's shares declined significantly following the announcement of disappointing fourth-quarter results and 2025 guidance, although there are medium-term positive indicators according to analysts [1][4]. Group 1: Quarterly Earnings and Guidance - The fourth-quarter results missed expectations, which was unexpected given the strong demand in the previous quarter [2]. - Revenue growth guidance for 2025 is projected at 10%-13%, below the consensus estimate of 14.2% [3]. - Operating margin guidance is set at 14%-15%, aligning with expectations and in line with financial services estimates of 14.8% [3]. Group 2: Demand and Market Position - Demand slowed in the second half of December but stabilized in January with a 19% increase [3]. - RH's demand growth is outperforming peers, driven by product newness and increased catalog circulation [4]. - The company has the potential to manage tariffs better due to its higher price points, which provide more pricing power [4]. Group 3: Analyst Ratings and Price Action - Analyst Cristina Fernández maintained an Outperform rating but reduced the price target from $420 to $280 [1]. - At the time of publication, RH's shares had fallen by 41.8% to $145.29 [4].

主要观点 • 宏观：全球降息节奏及经济增长变化继续影响市场走势，海外经济增长放缓压力存在，而美国因加关税政策实施， 再通胀压力回升，对经济的负面影响也可能出现。而国内积极财政和适度宽松货币宽松及国内消费刺激之下预期有 一定回升空间，但贸易摩擦不确定性带来全球经济增长降速风险继续存在。地缘形势复杂变化，增强了宏观不确定 性。 • 供应端：锌精矿供给偏紧情况改善，月度加工费出现显著回升。冶炼企业亏损收窄，盈利有继续改善空间，不过锌 定供应仍需要时间改善，流通紧张与预期宽松情况并存。 • 需求端：从锌下游三大需求来看，2025年地产端企稳修复对需求修复料有一定正面企稳作用，以镀锌端为代表的 需求端均会有一定回升可能。但是贸易摩擦料对材料及终端出口带来较多不确定性，需求端扰动因素增加。2025 年初，季节性因素有所显现，春节前开工转淡，春节后逐渐恢复，但开工带来的需求修复程度较为有限，且原料库 存回升也显示，需求增长不及预期。 • 展望：2025年3月，宏观不确定性将继续对有色带来较强扰动，而供需矛盾由供需偏紧向供需过剩转向将进一步延 续，沪锌料转向宽幅波动重心下移，市场运行区间预计主要会在22500-24500元/ ...