Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve has lowered the benchmark interest rate to a range of 3.75% to 4%, but there is increasing public divergence among policymakers regarding the future direction of monetary policy [2][5]. Group 1: Divergence Among Federal Reserve Officials - Several regional Fed presidents have expressed differing views on inflation, employment, and interest rates, indicating rising uncertainty in the monetary policy path [2]. - Cleveland Fed President Mester advocates for maintaining current interest rates, citing persistent high inflation affecting low- and middle-income families, and suggests that the neutral rate may be higher than commonly estimated [2]. - St. Louis Fed President Bullard supports a cautious approach to rate cuts, emphasizing that inflation remains above the 2% target and that policy should maintain some restrictiveness [3]. Group 2: Economic Outlook and Policy Implications - Bullard's expectation of a "strong rebound" in the economy in the first quarter of next year supports his cautious stance on rate cuts [3]. - Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari expresses reservations about the October rate cut decision, stating that he did not support it given the strong economic performance at that time, and emphasizes a data-driven approach for future meetings [4]. - The market's reaction indicates uncertainty, with interest rate futures pricing showing nearly a 50% chance of another rate cut in December, reflecting the complex economic situation facing the U.S. [5]. Group 3: Economic Data and Future Policy Decisions - The divergence among Fed officials highlights the complexity of the U.S. economy, where inflation pressures remain, the labor market requires support, and economic prospects are variable [5]. - The differing conclusions drawn by Fed presidents based on their focus on various economic data points may become clearer with upcoming economic data releases [5].

Group 1: Macroeconomic and Market Overview - The "14th Five-Year Plan" draft is officially released, guiding future focus areas. Sino-US economic and trade teams reach a phased consensus in Kuala Lumpur, reducing tariff policy disturbances and boosting market risk appetite [2]. - The manufacturing PMI declines marginally, indicating weakening supply and demand, and the economy still needs policy support. Overseas, after the US interest rate cut, the focus shifts to employment and inflation during the US government shutdown [2]. - The US "small non-farm" ADP added 42,000 jobs in October, exceeding expectations, with stagnant wage growth and marginal stabilization in employment [2]. Group 2: RMB Exchange Rate - The onshore RMB against the US dollar closed at 7.1219 on November 6, up 27 points from the previous trading day [3]. - It is expected that the US dollar against the RMB spot exchange rate will operate in the range of 7.09 - 7.14 this week, with a potentially stronger overall trend. The key technical level of 7.10 is crucial for short - term exchange rate trends [4]. Group 3: Stock Index - The stock index closed up collectively in the previous trading day, with the CSI 300 index rising 1.43%. The trading volume in the two markets rebounded by 18.2906 billion yuan [4]. - Short - term stock index is expected to continue to fluctuate due to intensified external disturbances and increased sensitivity to external risks in the domestic market [5]. Group 4: Treasury Bonds - On Thursday, medium - and long - term treasury bond futures declined, while short - term bonds stabilized. The capital market was loose, with DR001 around 1.32% [5]. - Short - term treasury bonds are expected to fluctuate, and if the bond market corrects due to the rumored public fund fee new regulations, it may present a buying opportunity [6]. Group 5: Container Shipping (Europe Line) - On November 6, the container shipping index (Europe line) futures market closed down across the board, with the main contract EC2512 performing weakly. The shipping futures led the decline, with the container shipping index (Europe line) falling 3.91% [8]. - Short - term container shipping futures for the Europe line are expected to maintain a weak and volatile pattern, driven by the game between the expectation of Red Sea route resumption and spot demand [10]. Group 6: Precious Metals - On Thursday, precious metals continued to fluctuate and consolidate. COMEX gold 2512 contract closed at $3984.8 per ounce, down 0.2%; SHFE gold 2512 main contract closed at 917.8 yuan per gram, up 0.79% [12]. - In the medium - to long - term, central bank gold purchases and investment demand growth will boost precious metal prices, but in the short - term, it is in an adjustment phase. In November, it is difficult to have strong drivers [15]. Group 7: Copper - Overnight, Comex copper closed at $4.97 per pound, up 0.19%; LME copper closed at $10687 per ton, down 0.1%; SHFE copper main contract closed at 85,690 yuan per ton, down 0.33% [16]. - When the copper price falls to around 85,000 yuan per ton, downstream enterprises' replenishment enthusiasm increases significantly, but whether orders will continue to increase needs further observation [17]. Group 8: Aluminum Industry Chain - The previous trading day, the main contract of SHFE aluminum closed at 21,665 yuan per ton, up 1.29% month - on - month; LME aluminum closed at $2843 per ton, down 0.09% month - on - month [18]. - Aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate at a high level; alumina prices are expected to be weak; cast aluminum alloy prices are expected to fluctuate at a high level [20][21]. Group 9: Zinc - The previous trading day, the main contract of SHFE zinc closed at 22,675 yuan per ton. The price of zinc is expected to be strongly volatile, with sufficient bottom support in November [21]. Group 10: Tin - The main contract of SHFE tin closed at 283,400 yuan per ton in the previous trading day. Tin prices are expected to fluctuate narrowly, with a stable resistance level at 290,000 yuan [21]. Group 11: Lead - The main contract of SHFE lead closed at 17,430 yuan per ton in the previous trading day. Short - term lead prices are expected to fluctuate at a high level due to supply shortages [23]. Group 12: Black Metals - The price of rebar is expected to fluctuate at a low level, and the anti - dumping investigation of hot - rolled steel sheets may put pressure on far - month contracts. Hot - rolled coil inventory is accumulating, and the de - stocking pressure is high [25]. - Iron ore prices are under pressure due to abundant supply and weak demand. There are opportunities to short at high prices after valuation repair [27][28]. - Coking coal and coke are in short supply in the spot market, and long - short spreads are strengthening. In the short term, prices may face adjustment, and in the long term, they are suitable for long positions in the black metal sector [29][30]. - Ferrosilicon and ferromanganese are expected to fluctuate due to high inventory and weak demand, with support from the cost side [30][31]. Group 13: Energy and Chemicals - Crude oil prices are expected to be weakly volatile in the short term, with geopolitical factors as potential upward risks, and will be suppressed by fundamentals in the long term [33][34]. - LPG prices are expected to fluctuate, with unclear short - term drivers and a lack of upward momentum [35][36]. - PX - PTA prices are expected to be relatively strongly volatile. PX is expected to maintain a relatively strong position, and PTA may have support below a processing fee of 230 on the disk [37][39]. - MEG - bottle chip prices are expected to rebound slightly following the cost of coal in the short term, with an expected trading range of 3750 - 4150 [40][42]. - PP prices are expected to be weakly volatile due to a supply - strong and demand - weak pattern [43][45]. - PE prices are expected to be weakly volatile due to large supply pressure and weak demand support [46][48]. - Pure benzene and styrene prices are likely to be weak, and it is recommended to wait for short - selling opportunities after a rebound [49][50]. - Fuel oil prices' high - sulfur cracking is expected to be weak, and it is necessary to pay attention to taking profits. Low - sulfur fuel oil prices' fundamentals are improving [51][53]. - Asphalt prices are expected to continue to decline, and it is necessary to pay attention to the rhythm [54][55]. - Soda ash prices are expected to be limited in upward movement due to high - supply expectations and cost support. Glass prices may face downward pressure in the 01 contract but have cost support and policy expectations in the long term. Caustic soda prices may face market pressure as production recovers [56][59]. Group 14: Pulp and Related Products - Pulp and offset paper prices are expected to be relatively volatile in the short term. Pulp prices are supported by raw material price increases, and offset paper prices are supported by cost factors [60][61]. Group 15: Logs - Log prices are expected to be weakly volatile. The current main strategy is to short at high prices, and pay attention to the opportunity of shorting the 01 - 03 spread in the medium - to long - term [62][63]. Group 16: Propylene - Propylene prices are expected to remain weak due to a loose supply situation and weak terminal demand [64][65]. Group 17: Agricultural Products - Hog prices may be supported by improving demand during the peak season. Long - term strategic bullishness is possible, but short - to medium - term focus is on fundamentals [66]. - Oilseed prices' upward trend is delayed. Imported soybeans' buying sentiment is reduced, and domestic soybean meal has a high inventory. Rapeseed meal is in a state of weak supply and demand in the fourth quarter [67][68]. - Edible oil prices are waiting for opportunities after negative factors are exhausted. Palm oil has supply pressure, soybean oil has inventory pressure but cost support, and rapeseed oil supply concerns remain [69]. - Soybean No. 1 prices are recommended for short - term observation. The market has entered a bullish trend, and short positions should be avoided [71]. - Corn and starch prices show signs of upward breakthrough, but attention should be paid to the impact of the decline in the external market [72][73].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The macro - environment has mixed impacts on the non - ferrous metals sector. The US economic data shows signs of weakness, but the market risk appetite has recovered to some extent. The short - term price trends of different non - ferrous metals vary, with some facing downward pressure and others showing a tendency to fluctuate strongly or at a high level [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures and Spot Prices - **LME (USD/ton)**: The prices of lead, zinc, nickel, tin, and copper all decreased, with lead down 2.5%, zinc down 0.25%, nickel down 0.2%, tin down 0.7%, and copper down 1.43% in spot prices. The 15:00 futures prices also mostly decreased, such as lead down 1.92%, zinc down 1.47%, etc. [1] - **SHFE (CNY/ton)**: The prices of zinc, aluminum, lead, and tin all decreased, with zinc down 0.49%, aluminum down 0.88%, lead down 0.93%, and tin down 1.44% in spot prices. The futures prices also showed different degrees of decline [1]. 3.2 Inventory Indicators - **LME (tons)**: The copper inventory increased by 0.06%, zinc inventory increased by 0.52%, nickel inventory increased by 0.15%, and tin inventory increased by 2.8%. [1] - **SHFE (tons)**: The copper inventory increased by 10.83%, zinc inventory decreased by 5.27%, aluminum inventory decreased by 3.89%, lead inventory increased by 1.87%, and tin inventory increased by 2.65% [1]. 3.3 Ascending and Descending Premium Indicators - **LME (USD/ton)**: The copper premium decreased by 4.75, zinc premium increased by 8.07, aluminum premium decreased by 2.52, and nickel premium decreased by 2.17 [1]. - **SHFE (CNY/ton)**: The copper premium increased by 25, zinc premium decreased by 30, and lead premium decreased by 10 [1]. 3.4 Price Ratio and Spread Indicators - **Price Ratio**: The copper, aluminum, and tin price ratios decreased, while the zinc and nickel price ratios increased. For example, the copper price ratio decreased by 0.32%, and the zinc price ratio increased by 1.46% [1]. - **Spread**: The copper spread decreased by 20, zinc spread decreased by 10, aluminum spread increased by 20, and tin spread increased by 90 [1]. 3.5 Operation Strategies - **Copper**: Although the market risk appetite has recovered, the copper price is under downward pressure due to factors such as the digestion of positive sentiment and the rise of the US dollar index, but the downward space is expected to be limited [1]. - **Aluminum**: The industrial - side driving force is limited, but the macro - environment still provides support, and the short - term price is expected to fluctuate strongly [1]. - **Zinc**: The external market still has the risk of a short squeeze. The short - term price is expected to fluctuate at a high level, and the internal - external price ratio is expected to remain low in the short term [1]. - **Nickel**: The short - term nickel price may fluctuate at the bottom. It is recommended to operate within a range in the short term, and pay attention to the macro - environment and the situation of Indonesian ore in the fourth quarter [1].

Labor Market Assessment - The labor market is experiencing reduced supply, which may make weaker job growth more acceptable to the Federal Reserve and others [1] - There is a potential shedding of jobs due to overhiring during the pandemic [1][3] Productivity and AI Impact - Current productivity levels are uncertain, and many companies have not seen cash flow or profit boosts from AI investments, with 80% reporting no benefits [3] - The anticipated increase in productivity from AI has not yet materialized, leading to a realization among companies that they may be overstaffed [3][4] Cost Pressures and Margins - Companies are facing margin pressures from tariffs and other costs, which may lead them to either pass on costs to customers or cut costs elsewhere [2] - The balance of risks for the Federal Reserve is challenging, with no clear advantages from AI investments yet [5][6] Federal Reserve Dynamics - The Federal Reserve committee is currently balanced, with more hawks than doves, indicating a cautious approach to policy decisions [7][8] - The absence of timely official data on employment and consumption may not lead to a dovish bias, as the Fed seems confident in overall growth despite some negative indicators [11][12]

Group 1: Core Views - The overall performance of the US economy is stable, but both of the central bank's targets face risks of deterioration [1][20] - The Federal Reserve's decision to lower interest rates is seen as a move to support employment demand while easing inflationary pressures [20] - There is significant internal disagreement within the Federal Reserve regarding future monetary policy directions, with some members advocating for a pause in rate cuts [5][7] Group 2: Interest Rate Policy Direction - The Federal Reserve has observed rising repo rates and federal funds rates, leading to a decision to halt the balance sheet reduction starting December 1 [4] - The current policy rate is set between 3.75% and 4.0%, with a recent cut of 25 basis points [1][7] - The committee's decision reflects a mix of opinions on the economic outlook, with some members calling for a more cautious approach [5][9] Group 3: Inflation and Employment Situation - The September CPI data indicates inflation is close to the 2% target, but the absence of PPI data complicates the assessment of overall inflation trends [11][12] - Employment market dynamics are influenced by a significant reduction in new worker supply and a decrease in labor demand, leading to a unique equilibrium in the job market [12][14] - The Federal Reserve is cautious about the potential long-term impacts of tariffs on inflation, viewing them as a one-time effect rather than a persistent issue [11][15] Group 4: Asset Bubble and Macro Stability - Investment in data centers and AI is robust, with companies believing these investments will enhance productivity, indicating a disconnect from interest rate sensitivity [15][17] - The Federal Reserve does not assess the appropriateness of asset market valuations but focuses on the overall stability of the financial system [16][18] - Concerns about potential asset bubbles are rising, with the market's current enthusiasm reflecting a complex interplay of economic factors [20][19] Group 5: Federal Reserve's Independence - The reappointment process for regional Federal Reserve presidents is ongoing, with no immediate concerns raised by the current leadership [19] - The independence of the Federal Reserve is perceived as fragile, especially in light of political pressures and the potential influence of future leadership changes [19][20]

Core Insights - The Federal Reserve is facing internal dissent regarding its decision to cut interest rates, with some officials arguing that it is too early to ease measures against inflation [2][5][6] - The Fed's dual mandate of maintaining low inflation and high employment is creating conflicting pressures, complicating its decision-making process [3][5][6] Summary by Sections Federal Reserve's Decision - Three Federal Reserve officials expressed disagreement with the Federal Open Market Committee's (FOMC) recent decision to cut the benchmark interest rate by a quarter-point [2][6] - Kansas City Fed president Jeffrey Schmid voted to keep rates steady but was outvoted [2][3] Inflation and Employment Dynamics - Inflation has been above the Fed's target of 2% for over four years, with tariffs exacerbating the situation, which would typically prompt rate hikes [4][6] - Conversely, trade wars initiated by President Trump have created uncertainty, hindering job growth and prompting the Fed to lower rates to support employment [4][6] Implications for Economic Policy - The divisions within the FOMC are making interest rate movements less predictable, as members disagree on which issue—inflation or employment—should take precedence [5][6] - Fed Chair Jerome Powell acknowledged the "strongly differing views" among FOMC participants during the recent policy meeting [5]

Monetary Policy Outlook - The Federal Reserve's decision to lower the federal funds rate from a target range of 4.00%-4.25% to 3.75%-4.00% is not guaranteed for December, with significant disagreement among FOMC members [2][8][9] - The Fed plans to end balance sheet reduction starting December 1, indicating a shift towards maintaining a stable balance sheet size [9][10] Labor Market Insights - The labor market is showing signs of cooling, with job growth slowing since the beginning of the year, attributed to a decline in labor supply and reduced immigration [3][30] - Despite some companies announcing layoffs, initial unemployment claims remain stable, suggesting no immediate deterioration in the labor market [3][30][40] Inflation Trends - Inflation remains slightly above the Fed's 2% target, with the overall PCE price index rising by 2.8% over the past year, driven by tariff impacts on goods [4][21] - Core PCE inflation, excluding food and energy, is estimated to be around 2.3%-2.4%, indicating that non-tariff inflation is not significantly deviating from the target [21][31] Economic Activity - Economic growth is projected to be moderate, with GDP growth at 1.6% for the first half of the year, lower than the previous year's 2.4% [2][37] - Consumer spending has shown strength, which may offset some negative impacts from the government shutdown [2][37] Balance Sheet Management - The Fed's balance sheet has decreased by $2.2 trillion over the past three and a half years, with the current size at approximately 21% of nominal GDP [9][10] - The Fed will reinvest proceeds from maturing agency securities into short-term Treasury bills to adjust the balance sheet structure [10][18] Market Reactions and Future Considerations - The market has priced in expectations for a rate cut in December, but the Fed emphasizes that this is not a foregone conclusion [11][12] - The ongoing government shutdown may complicate data collection and impact future policy decisions, leading to a more cautious approach [24][25]

Core Viewpoint - The discussions regarding economic assessments and monetary policy decisions are ongoing, with no predetermined conclusions for the upcoming December meeting, highlighting diverse opinions among participants [4]. Economic Assessment - Current economic assessments indicate that inflation risks are skewed to the upside, while employment risks are to the downside, suggesting a complex economic landscape that cannot be addressed simultaneously with existing tools [2]. - Different forecasts exist among participants, reflecting varying levels of risk aversion towards inflation and employment outcomes [3]. Monetary Policy and Balance Sheet Management - The committee has indicated a gradual tightening in money market conditions, with significant tightening observed in recent weeks [8]. - The balance sheet is currently shrinking at a slow pace, with a decision to freeze its size effective December 1, allowing markets time to adapt [9]. - The reduction of reserves will continue as non-reserve liabilities grow, indicating a strategic approach to balance sheet management [7].

Employment Situation - The employment situation remains generally stable, with 10.57 million new urban jobs created in the first nine months, achieving 88% of the annual target [1] - The urban surveyed unemployment rate in September was 5.2%, a decrease of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month [1] Social Security - As of the end of September, the number of participants in basic pension, unemployment, and work injury insurance reached 1.074 billion, 248 million, and 304 million respectively [1] - The total income of the three social insurance funds in the first nine months was 6.69 trillion yuan, with total expenditures of 6.04 trillion yuan, resulting in a cumulative surplus of 9.85 trillion yuan by the end of September [1] - The scale of entrusted investment in the basic pension insurance fund exceeded 2.72 trillion yuan, while the investment operation scale of enterprise (occupational) annuities surpassed 7.7 trillion yuan [1] Pension System Adjustments - The Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security issued a notice regarding personal pension withdrawals, clarifying operational methods to meet diverse needs [2] - The basic pension standard for urban and rural residents was increased by 20 yuan starting July 1, with 13 provinces further raising local basic pension standards [2] Talent Development - The Ministry has developed 95 national occupational standards to meet the rapid development of new occupations and urgent talent needs in key areas [2][3] - New occupational standards include roles such as drone swarm flight planners and intelligent manufacturing system operators, reflecting the growing demand in emerging fields [3] - A total of 37 of the new standards belong to key areas, including 19 in advanced manufacturing and 6 in the digital economy [3] Future Plans - The Ministry aims to enhance the employment support system, implement targeted measures for key groups, and conduct large-scale vocational skills training [4] - There will be a continued deepening of social security system reforms, including nationwide coordination of basic pension insurance and expansion of occupational injury protection trials [4] - The Ministry plans to improve talent evaluation mechanisms and strengthen the construction of professional and skilled talent teams [4]

Core Insights - The rapid growth of China's e-commerce and food delivery sectors has significantly boosted the national economy, with e-commerce transactions reaching 43.8 trillion yuan in 2022, a year-on-year increase of 16.5%, and the food delivery market size hitting 1.1 trillion yuan, growing by 18.6% [1] - The rise of e-commerce and food delivery has posed unprecedented challenges to traditional brick-and-mortar stores, which saw a decline in revenue to 38.1 trillion yuan in 2022, down 3.9% year-on-year, raising widespread concern [1] Group 1 - Some voices suggest canceling food delivery and closing e-commerce to revive traditional markets, but this approach may backfire and lead to economic decline and increased unemployment [2] - The food delivery and e-commerce sectors employ millions, with 4 million in food delivery and 60 million in e-commerce in 2022, making them crucial for job creation [3] - The decline in brick-and-mortar sales is not solely due to e-commerce competition; post-pandemic consumer demand has decreased, and physical stores face intense competition and rising rental costs [5] Group 2 - Food delivery has become a vital revenue source for restaurants, with about one-third of their sales coming from delivery orders, meaning that canceling food delivery could further weaken their profitability [5] - Consumer reliance on food delivery and e-commerce has increased post-pandemic, and eliminating these services would cause significant inconvenience for those unable to cook, such as young people and the elderly [7] - To restore market vitality, a comprehensive approach is needed, focusing on enhancing the competitiveness of physical stores, improving the consumer environment, and stimulating demand rather than resorting to blanket cancellations of food delivery and e-commerce [7]