Group 1 - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point interest rate cut on September 17, marking its first cut of the year, alongside balance sheet reduction measures [1] - The impact of the rate cut on the U.S. economy is expected to be limited, as the federal funds rate remains high at 4%-4.25%, and concerns about tariffs and supply chain uncertainties may hinder its effectiveness in stimulating inflation and employment [2] - The core CPI in the U.S. has risen from 2.8% to 3.1% over six months, while the overall CPI increased from 2.3% to 2.9%, indicating potential inflationary pressures from the combination of rate cuts and tariffs [2] Group 2 - Many central banks are hesitant to follow the Federal Reserve's lead in cutting rates, with the European Central Bank (ECB) opting to remain steady due to previous rate cuts and lingering concerns over inflation [3] - The Bank of Japan is also unlikely to cut rates, as it is currently in a tightening phase due to inflation and tariff considerations [3] Group 3 - Following the rate cut, the market exhibited unexpected movements, with the dollar index rising and oil prices falling, suggesting that the rate cut had already been priced in by the market [4] - The global stock markets showed mixed reactions, with emerging markets benefiting from capital inflows as a result of the Fed's rate cut [4] Group 4 - Despite the rate cut, the Federal Reserve maintains a hawkish stance, indicating concerns over rising inflation and emphasizing its independence [5] - The Fed's dot plot suggests an increase in the number of expected rate cuts for the year, with projections indicating a potential drop to a range of 3.5%-3.75% by the end of the year [5]

Group 1: Federal Reserve Insights - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell emphasized the necessity of interest rate cuts due to significant changes in labor market risks, indicating a "lack of vitality and slight fatigue" in the current market [3][4] - Powell noted that the hiring rate is low, and an increase in layoffs could lead to a rapid rise in unemployment, highlighting the heightened risks facing employment missions [3] - Recent inflation data showed an increase, with August PCE figures at 2.7% overall and 2.9% core, driven mainly by rising commodity prices, which Powell expects to be a one-time increase [3][4] Group 2: Interest Rate Policy - The current policy remains "restrictive," with a 25 basis point rate cut seen as a "risk mitigation" measure aimed at transitioning to a more neutral rate level to support employment without exacerbating inflation [4] - Powell stated that a 50 basis point cut did not receive broad support, reflecting the Federal Reserve's cautious stance on significant easing [4] - The divergence in interest rate forecasts, as shown in the dot plot, stems from differing interpretations of the economic outlook and appropriate actions, which Powell described as normal in the current complex environment [4] Group 3: Silver Market Analysis - The key trend for international silver is at $40.5, with recent adjustments not breaking below $41, indicating a high-level consolidation [5] - Current trading range for silver is between $41 and $43, with support levels at $41.50 or $41.10 and resistance levels at $42.20 or $42.70 [5]

摘要今日周四（9月18日）亚盘时段，伦敦金目前交投于3645.85美元附近，截至发稿，伦敦金最新报 3660.99美元/盎司，涨幅0.04%，最高上探3671.65美元/盎司，最低触及3651.59美元/盎司。目前来看， 伦敦金短线偏向震荡走势。 鲍威尔直言不讳地指出，对政策制定者来说，在不断攀升的通胀压力与低迷的劳动力市场之间找到微妙 平衡点，已成为一项史无前例的挑战。 谈及未来政策方向，鲍威尔表示，美联储将继续以最新发布的数据、不断变化的经济预期以及风险考量 为基础，来调整合适的货币政策立场。他强调："我们正处于逐次会议讨论的阶段……并未预设固定的 行动方案。"同时明确说明，美联储采取"观望等待"、暂缓降息的策略是审慎之举，不必急于行动、草 率决策。 【最新伦敦金行情解析】 在昨日的交易中，黄金市场受到消息面的显著冲击，经历了较为剧烈的洗盘过程，但整体走势仍大体契 合预期。其价格在60美金的区间内频繁波动，多次呈现出如过山车般的惊险行情，而日线图最终以一根 破位阴线收官。 就当前的收盘形态而言，今日操作策略倾向于以反弹做空为主。从日线级别来看，3684附近构成重要阻 力位，该位置恰好处于斐波那契61.8% ...

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve lowered the federal funds rate by 25 basis points, indicating a shift towards employment-focused policies rather than inflation-driven decisions [1][2][6] - The latest "dot plot" revealed that 12 out of 19 FOMC members expect at least one more rate cut this year, signaling a stronger dovish stance than previously anticipated [2][4] - Fed Chair Powell described the rate cut as a "risk management" measure, emphasizing the current weakness in the labor market while downplaying the likelihood of aggressive easing [1][6] Group 2 - UBS analysts noted the inconsistency in the Fed's actions, as they lowered rates while simultaneously predicting accelerated economic growth and rising inflation [4] - Market reactions were volatile, with initial optimism quickly reversing as Powell's comments led to a surge in bond yields and a decline in stock prices, particularly in tech stocks [7][12] - The Fed's cautious approach suggests a gradual easing of rates rather than a dramatic shift, with future policy decisions heavily reliant on upcoming economic data [10][13]

Monetary Policy Changes - The Federal Reserve lowered the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 4.00%–4.25%[11] - The Fed's focus has shifted from "controlling inflation" to "supporting employment" due to concerns over a slowing labor market[2] Economic Outlook - Non-farm payrolls have significantly declined, averaging only 29,000 new jobs per month from June to August, compared to over 120,000 earlier in the year[12] - The unemployment rate has risen from 4.1% to 4.3%[12] Future Rate Expectations - The Fed is expected to implement two more rate cuts of 25 basis points each in October and December, totaling a 75 basis point reduction for the year[28] - The median projection in the dot plot indicates a potential return to a natural rate of around 3.0% by 2027[15] Inflation Concerns - Core PCE inflation is projected to remain elevated at 3.1% by year-end, with expectations of a decline to 2.6% by the end of next year[14] - The Fed acknowledges the risk of inflation rising again, particularly if tariff-induced cost increases persist[29] Market Impacts - Short-term U.S. Treasury yields are expected to decline more than long-term yields due to the rate cuts[33] - The U.S. dollar is likely to face continued pressure, having already depreciated nearly 10% since the beginning of the year[33] Implications for China - The Fed's rate cuts may provide more room for China's monetary policy adjustments, potentially leading to lower domestic interest rates[35] - Increased global liquidity could benefit China's stock market and stabilize the RMB exchange rate[35]

【黄金】现货黄金一度触及历史新高3707.46美元，但最终回吐涨幅并收跌0.82%，报3659.59美元。在 美联储做出利率决后，"新债王"冈拉克谈到了金价，金价今天突破3700美元。冈拉克指出，黄金价格在 过去两年中上涨了100%以上，今年迄今已上涨了45%，他称这一走势"离谱"。冈拉克说："现在甚至连 金矿商也参与其中，这表明散户投资者开始加入黄金市场的动量交易。"冈拉克指出，他一直看好黄 金，并在今年早些时候预测金价将达到4000美元。今天，他更进一步，预计金价将从当前水平再上涨 340美元，涨幅约为9.2%。他说："我认为，到今年年底，金价几乎肯定会收于4,000美元以上。" 周三，三大指数多数收跌。美联储宣布降息25个基点，这一举措得到了大多数特朗普任命的美联储官员 的支持，只有新任理事米兰反对，希望降息50个基点。在新闻发布会上，美联储主席鲍威尔表示，今日 的降息举措是一项风险管理决策，并补充说他认为没有必要快速调整利率。 【美股】截至收盘，道指涨260.42点，涨幅为0.57%，报46018.32点；纳指跌72.63点，跌幅为0.33%，报 22261.33点；标普500指数跌6.41点，跌幅为 ...

当地时间9月17日，美联储宣布将联邦基金利率目标区间下调25个基点，至4.00%-4.25%，暗示年内可能 继续降息两次。 一图速览>> ■ 关于就业: 劳动力市场正在走软,我们不需 要它继续进一步走软,(而目) 也不希望它走软。 新任美联储理事斯蒂芬·米兰如何主张？ 最新点阵图透露哪些信息？ 关于 风险管理式降息、 反对票、通胀情况，鲍威尔如何表态？ 机构如何解读本次降息？ 25 25 2024 50 2025 有记录来美联储利率走势 *图中数据为目标利率最 2008/1: 2020/03 美联储最新点阵图 点阵图显示,美联储 内部分歧巨大。 在此次降息后,赞成 | : : 年内按兵不动或再降 : + + = = ... 息2次的委员分别有6 :: 位和9位。外界预测, 有1位主张年内激进降 息150个基点的委员 可能是刚进入美联储 理事会的米兰。 2027 2025 2024 相比之下,2026年的预测分布更为分散,利率区间中值集中在 3.25%-3.75%,与目前的利率水平相比,有75个基点的降息空间。 美联储主席鲍威尔 机构解读 ■ 关于风险管理式降息: ■ 摩根士丹利首席美国经济学家 在某种程度上, ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point reduction in the federal funds rate target range to 4.00%-4.25%, indicating the possibility of two more rate cuts within the year [1] Group 1: Federal Reserve's Internal Dynamics - The dot plot reveals significant internal divisions within the Federal Reserve, with 6 members favoring a pause and 9 members supporting two additional rate cuts this year [3] - A newly appointed member, Stephen Milan, is speculated to advocate for a more aggressive rate cut of 150 basis points [3] Group 2: Economic Forecasts - The median forecast for the federal funds rate in 2026 is concentrated between 3.25%-3.75%, indicating a potential reduction of 75 basis points compared to current levels [4] - The latest economic projections show a GDP growth rate of 1.6% for 2025, with an unemployment rate forecast of 4.5% [12] Group 3: Inflation and Employment Insights - Fed Chair Jerome Powell described the recent rate cut as a form of risk management, highlighting the upward risks to inflation and downward risks to employment [5] - Powell noted that rising commodity prices are a significant contributor to inflation, which is expected to continue affecting inflation rates in the remaining months of the year [7] - The labor market is showing signs of softening, and there is a desire to prevent further deterioration [8] Group 4: Institutional Interpretations - Morgan Stanley's chief U.S. economist, Michael Gapen, interpreted the rate cut as a dovish signal, emphasizing the rising risks in the employment sector [9] - Fitch's U.S. economic research head, Olu Sonola, stated that the Fed is prioritizing growth and employment, even at the cost of tolerating higher inflation in the short term [10] - Goldman Sachs' macro strategy head, Simon Dangoor, noted that the majority of Fed members plan to cut rates two more times this year, indicating a dominant dovish stance [10] - Wells Fargo's senior economist, Sarah House, remarked that the meeting's outcome reflects a balance between weakening labor market momentum and persistent high inflation [11]

当地时间9月17日，美联储宣布将联邦基金利率目标区间下调25个基点，至4.00%-4.25%，暗示年内可能继续降息两次。 一图速览>> | | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | ● 前一轮加息周期累计加息525个基点 Jun | Jul | Aug | Sept | Oct | Nov | Dec | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2022 | | | 25 | | 50 | 75 | 175 | | 75 | | 75 50 | | | 2023 | | 25 | 25 | | 25 ● | | 1 25 | | | | . . | | 新任美联储理事斯蒂芬·米兰如何主张？ 最新点阵图透露哪些信息？ 关于 风险管理式降息、 反对票、通胀情况，鲍威尔如何表态？ 机构如何解读本次降息？ 2024 25 (25) 2025 代表当月暂停加息 有记录来美联储利率走势 2024/09 时隔四年重启宽松 1984/08 11.5% 2023/07 2001/01 ...

新任美联储理事米兰有何主张？关于风险管理式降息，鲍威尔如何表态？一图速览>> 2025 代表当月暂停加息 有记录来美联储利率走势 2024/09 时隔四年重启宗公 1984/08 11.5% 2023/07 2001/01 5.5% 5.5% 2025/9 *图中数据为目标利率最高上限 2008/12 2020/03 0.25% 0.25% 美联储最新点阵图 2026 2027 2025 2028 点阵图显示,美联化 内部分歧巨大。 ■ 关于反对票: 50个基点的降息完全没有得到广 泛支持 ..... 过去五年，我们也曾实 施非常大幅度的加息和降息,它 通常发生在政策明显偏离、需要 讯速调整的时候。现在不是这样 的情况。今年迄今,我认为我们 的政策一直是对的。 在此次降息后, 赞J 年内按兵不动或再β 息2次的委员分别有 位和9位。外界预测， 有1位主张年内激进β 息150个基点的委 { 可能是刚进入美联们 理事会的米兰。 相比之下，2026年的预测分布更为分散,利率区间中值集中? 3.25%-3.75%，与目前的利率水平相比，有75个基点的降息空间。 美联储主席鲍威尔 机构候读 ■ 关于风险管理式降息: 在 ...