Group 1 - Silver futures are currently trading above 12356, with a recent high of 12580 and a low of 12307, indicating a short-term bullish trend [1] - The weakening US dollar and geopolitical tensions are increasing the attractiveness of silver, although hawkish comments from Federal Reserve officials are limiting the upside potential for silver prices [1] - Federal Reserve officials are cautious about predicting a rate cut in December, with various officials expressing that the current interest rates are close to neutral and that there is limited room for easing [1] Group 2 - The end of the longest government shutdown in US history is expected to lead to continued expansionary fiscal policies, with potential tax rebates for low-income families, which may raise inflation expectations [2] - Recent trading analysis suggests that silver futures may see a short-term bullish opportunity, with a target around 12450 and a possibility of breaking the previous high of 12550 [3]

Group 1: Gold Futures Performance - On November 13, the main gold futures in Shanghai reported a price of 961.34 CNY per gram, with an increase of 1.57%. The opening price for the day was 947.60 CNY per gram, reaching a high of 963.96 CNY and a low of 945.96 CNY [1] Group 2: Macroeconomic News - According to ADP data, the average weekly reduction in private sector payrolls in the U.S. was 11,250 for the four weeks ending October 25. In total, 45,000 jobs were lost in October (excluding government employees), marking the largest monthly decline in employment since March 2023. The small business confidence index in the U.S. fell to a six-month low in October due to deteriorating profit conditions and declining economic optimism [1] Group 3: Institutional Perspectives - The risks associated with U.S. trade policies have largely been mitigated, leading to a decrease in market risk aversion. Looking ahead, expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut have increased, highlighting the monetary attributes of gold. A short-term volatile market pattern is expected to persist. As of November 7, the weekly inventory of gold on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 89,616 kilograms, an increase of 1,800 kilograms from the previous week [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - Amid rising market risk - aversion, focus on the US October CPI data. In the commodity market, during the current inflation - expectation game phase, pay attention to non - ferrous metals and precious metals with high certainty. Consider buying precious metals and non - ferrous metals on dips [2][4][5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - In the domestic market, positive news has emerged, but the economic foundation needs further consolidation. The "15th Five - Year Plan" proposal was released on October 28, and the average GDP growth rate during the 15th Five - Year Plan period is expected to be around 5%. On October 30, the China - US economic and trade teams reached a three - aspect consensus, and China officially postponed tariffs on November 5. In October, the national manufacturing PMI was 49, a 0.8 decline from the previous month. China's October exports (in US dollars) decreased by 1.1% year - on - year, compared with an 8.3% increase in the previous value. China's October CPI increased by 0.2% year - on - year, and the core CPI reached the highest level since March 2024. The PPI increased month - on - month for the first time this year. On November 12, the A - share market adjusted with a slight decline in the three major indices, the bond market rose across the board, most commodities fell, and precious metals rose [2]. - In the US, the liquidity risk has temporarily eased. The Fed cut interest rates by 25BP as expected and announced the end of balance - sheet reduction on December 1. On November 10, the US Senate voted to pass the "Continuing Appropriations and Extensions Act". The US October ISM manufacturing index dropped to 48.7%, shrinking for eight consecutive months. The ADP private - sector employment in October decreased by 45,000, the largest decline in two and a half years. There are uncertainties regarding the Fed chair candidate and future tariff policies [3]. Commodity Analysis - In the black sector, it is still dragged down by downstream demand expectations, and focus on the "anti - involution" situation. The long - term supply limitation in the non - ferrous sector has not been alleviated, and it has been boosted by the global easing expectation recently. The medium - term supply of the energy sector is considered to be relatively loose as OPEC + announced an additional production increase of 137,000 barrels per day in November. In the chemical sector, the "anti - involution" space of methanol, caustic soda, urea and other varieties is worth attention. In the agricultural products sector, with the China - US peace talks, pay attention to China's procurement plan for US goods and next year's weather forecast. For precious metals, after the short - term sharp adjustment risk is cleared, consider buying on dips [4]. Strategy - For commodities and stock index futures, consider buying precious metals and non - ferrous metals on dips [5]. A - Share Market - The A - share market recovered after hitting the bottom, with the three major indices slightly declining. More stocks fell than rose, and over 3500 stocks in the Shanghai, Shenzhen and Beijing stock markets closed down. The trading volume was 1.96 trillion yuan. At the close, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.07%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.36%, and the ChiNext Index fell 0.39% [6]. US Tariff and Economic News - US Treasury Secretary Bessent said that there will be major tariff news in the next few days, and tariff dividends are under discussion. Trump mentioned a $2000 tax refund for families with an annual income of less than $100,000. Bessent also said that the economic situation was good before the government shutdown, and he expects real income to rebound in the first and second quarters of next year [3][6].

Gold Market - Gold experienced a slight pullback, but the overall decline is limited, indicating that the upward trend may not be over yet. However, there are signs of decreasing risk aversion in the market, which could lead to increased selling pressure on gold prices [1] - The U.S. government has been in a shutdown for 42 days, but the Senate passed a key funding bill on November 10, which may end the shutdown. The bill's fate in the House remains uncertain, contributing to market caution [1] - Analysts suggest that uncertainty surrounding U.S. inflation and employment data may keep investors holding gold as a hedge against unknown risks [1] - Technically, gold's daily chart shows a small bullish candle with a long upper shadow, indicating potential for further adjustments, with support at $4096 [1] Oil Market - Oil prices saw a slight rebound, reaching a new high for the month, but the overall technical outlook remains pessimistic with significant downward pressure [2] - OPEC+ members have agreed to maintain current production levels, increasing supply by 137,000 barrels per day in December, while pausing production increases from January to March 2026 [2] - EIA data indicates a projected increase in global crude oil inventories by over 2 million barrels per day by the end of 2025, which historically could lead to a price drop of 25% to 50% [2] - The combination of increased supply and weak demand from major economies suggests limited potential for a significant rebound in oil prices [2] - Technically, oil's daily chart shows a bullish candle, but long-term resistance remains significant, with support at $60.30 [2] U.S. Dollar Index - The U.S. dollar rebounded significantly after a sharp decline, but the overall trend remains weak, especially with the potential for continued interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve to support the economy [3] - There is a notable division within the Federal Reserve regarding whether to continue rate cuts, with some officials concerned about persistent inflation while others focus on weak employment and demand [3] - The labor market is cooling, and inflation is likely to rise, but the Fed may prioritize economic support, leading to a prolonged period of a weak dollar [3] - Technically, the dollar index shows a downward continuation pattern, indicating a long-term bearish outlook, with short-term resistance at 99.60 [3] Nikkei 225 - The Nikkei 225 index formed a bullish engulfing candlestick pattern, suggesting a potential bottoming out, with prices above short-term moving averages [4] - The hourly chart indicates an upward trend with key support at 50640 [4] Copper Market - Copper prices have shown a series of small bullish candles, indicating a strong probability of an upward continuation pattern [5] - The hourly chart shows a completed upward structure, with potential for a short-term adjustment, but buying on dips is recommended, with support at $5 [5] Market Overview - The U.S. federal debt is on a "vertical climb" trajectory, with warnings from the Congressional Budget Office about the debt potentially reaching 185% of GDP [6] - There is a significant divide within the Federal Reserve regarding inflation and labor market concerns, which may not be resolved even with the return of official economic data [6] - The Trump administration is planning to open California's coast for oil drilling leases for the first time in decades [6] Upcoming Events - Key speeches from European Central Bank officials and discussions among Eurozone finance ministers are scheduled, which may impact market sentiment [7]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Index Futures: Neutral [24] - Precious Metals: Cautiously Bullish [7][47] 2. Core Views - Index Futures: The market is at a critical point, with cautious trading volume. It is expected to oscillate around the integer point in the short - term, which helps consolidate the long - term pattern. Short - term fluctuations may be intensified by the US dollar liquidity risk [3][24]. - Precious Metals: Despite the uncertain interest - rate cut rhythm and the recovery of US economic data, the record - breaking government shutdown in the US may intensify market risk - aversion sentiment, supporting the safe - haven premium of precious metals [3][5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis Index Futures - US economic data: The preliminary value of the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index in November 2025 was 50.3, the lowest since June 2022. The one - year inflation rate expectation was 4.7%. The US government shutdown led to a rapid decline in the three major US stock indexes [4]. - Domestic situation: External relations have eased, and the macro - level driving force has weakened. Institutional pressure has eased, and it is the portfolio rebalancing window. The stock position is oscillating, and the risk appetite is decreasing. The margin trading balance has increased weekly but has not exceeded the previous high, and the daily average trading volume is less than 2 trillion yuan. The Shanghai Composite Index is likely to oscillate around 4000 points [4]. Precious Metals - Price performance: In the week of 2025 - 11 - 07, gold and silver prices continued to oscillate, showing signs of stabilization after a high - point correction [5]. - Interest rate situation: The Fed's "hawkish interest - rate cut" in October was implemented. There are significant differences within the FOMC on whether to cut interest rates again in December, and the future interest - rate cut path is highly uncertain [5]. - Economic data: The US ADP employment in October increased by 42,000, exceeding expectations, but overall labor demand is slowing, and wage growth is stagnant. The US ISM Services PMI in October rose to 52.4, a new eight - month high, with multiple sub - indexes performing well, but core data such as non - farm payrolls are still missing due to the government shutdown [3][5]. Strategy Index Futures - Unilateral strategy: Bullish on IH and IF; Neutral on IC and IM [7]. Precious Metals - Strategy: Cautiously bullish; Suspend arbitrage [7]. Index Futures Logic and Strategy Table - Economic environment: Neutral. China's service trade import and export in the first three quarters increased by 7.6% year - on - year, with a shrinking trade deficit [24]. - Valuation: Neutral. The price - to - earnings ratio of index futures has recovered, while the price - to - book ratio is still low, and the stock - bond ratio has decreased [24]. - Liquidity: Neutral. The central bank's net reverse - repurchase withdrawal last week was 157.22 billion yuan [24]. - Monetary policy: Upward. The central bank will maintain a supportive and moderately loose monetary policy [24]. - RMB trend: Upward. The RMB exchange rate is expected to strengthen with the Fed's substantial interest - rate cut and the consolidation of domestic demand [24]. - Incremental funds: Upward. The government encourages the entry of long - term funds, and institutional incremental funds are expected to drive market stability [24]. - Restricted stock unlocking: Neutral. There will be 1.407 billion restricted shares of 34 companies unlocking this week, with a market value of 24.733 billion yuan, an increase of 742 million yuan from the previous week [24]. - Overall evaluation: Neutral. The market is in a game around 4000 points, with cautious trading volume. It is expected to oscillate in the short - term, and investors are advised to use index futures for risk hedging [24]. Commodity Strategy View Table - Interest rates: Upward. The yields of US Treasury bonds of different maturities changed in different directions. Doubts about the Fed's independence and expectations of a September interest - rate cut are the main trading themes. If Trump successfully removes a Fed governor, it may boost precious metal prices [44]. - Inflation: Upward. The 10 - year Breakeven inflation rate remained stable at 2.41%. US core PCE inflation data was in line with expectations, and the impact of tariffs on inflation is emerging. The market expects a September interest - rate cut [44]. - Exchange rate: Upward. The US dollar index rose slightly. The market expects a 25 - basis - point Fed interest - rate cut in September, which may suppress the US dollar [47]. - Safe - haven: Neutral. Geopolitical factors such as the situation in Ukraine are in a state of balance [47]. - Position: Neutral. Gold SPDR ETF holdings increased, while silver SLV ETF holdings decreased. Gold speculative net long positions increased, while silver net long positions decreased [47]. - Gold - silver ratio: Short at high levels. The trading logic of silver is similar to that of gold, and silver may have upward potential with the implementation of easing policies and the repair of the gold - silver ratio [46][47].

Group 1 - The recent surge in gold prices is attributed to multiple factors, including increased global economic uncertainty, rising geopolitical risks, and heightened market risk aversion, leading to a significant influx of funds into the gold market [3] - The fluctuation of the US dollar and expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve have made gold more attractive as an investment, further driving up its price [3] - Central banks around the world are steadily increasing their gold reserves, providing strong support for gold prices from the demand side [3] - There has been a noticeable net inflow of funds into gold ETFs, indicating a recovery in institutional investor confidence towards gold [3] Group 2 - For long-term investors, gold plays a crucial role in risk diversification within asset allocation, and it is advisable to consider gradual investments during price dips to achieve stable asset appreciation [4] - Short-term speculators should exercise caution as gold prices are currently at relatively high levels, and market volatility may increase, necessitating careful stop-loss strategies [4] Group 3 - There are two prevailing viewpoints regarding the future trajectory of gold prices: the optimistic perspective suggests that ongoing global economic uncertainty and central bank purchasing trends will sustain demand for gold, allowing for further price increases [5] - The cautious perspective warns that gold prices may have already priced in most favorable factors, and a strengthening dollar or improved market sentiment could lead to a withdrawal of funds from the gold market, resulting in potential price corrections [5] - Overall, while the long-term allocation value of gold remains, short-term volatility is expected, and investors should maintain a rational approach to avoid impulsive trading decisions [5] Group 4 - Investors interested in gold can participate through various means, including physical gold (such as bars and coins), which is suitable for long-term holding and has preservation and collectible value [6] - Other options include paper gold or gold ETFs, which offer convenience and liquidity, as well as gold stocks and funds that are influenced by individual stock and market factors, requiring investors to possess market analysis skills and risk tolerance [7]

11月10日金价速报，国内品牌金店的首饰金价仍在上涨，最高涨幅达11元/克，整体价格接近1280元大 关。其中，周大福的首饰金价上涨11元/克，报1279元/克，与潮宏基、周大生继续并列最高价金店；上 海中国黄金不涨不跌，报价1188元/克，为最低价金店。今日金价高低价差再次拉大，报91元/克。 以下是各大品牌金店详细报价： | 今日金店黄金价格一览（2025年11月10日） | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 金店报价 | 今日金价 | 单位 | 变动幅度 | 涨跌 | | 老庙黄金价格 | 1273 | 元/克 | 5 | 涨 | | 六福黄金价格 | 1277 | 元/克 | 11 | 涨 | | 周大福黄金价格 | 1279 | 元/克 | 11 | 涨 | | 周六福黄金价格 | 1256 | 元/克 | 4 | 跌 | | 金至尊黄金价格 | 1277 | 元/克 | 11 | 涨 | | 老凤祥黄金价格 | 1273 | 元/克 | 5 | 涨 | | 潮宏基黄金价格 | 1279 | 元/克 | 11 | 涨 | | 周生生黄金价格 | 12 ...

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices are currently trading around $3970 per ounce, influenced by recent U.S. employment data and the Federal Reserve's policy direction [1] Group 1: Employment Data Impact - The U.S. private sector added 42,000 jobs, exceeding market expectations and reversing a decline from the previous two months, signaling stabilization in the labor market [1] - This positive employment data has put pressure on interest rate cut expectations, contributing to a stronger U.S. dollar [1] Group 2: Market Dynamics - A stronger dollar has increased the cost of gold for holders of other currencies, suppressing global demand [1] - Gold, which does not yield interest, faces higher holding costs in an environment of a strong dollar or high interest rate expectations, making its price vulnerable [1] Group 3: Federal Reserve Policy Uncertainty - The uncertainty surrounding the Federal Reserve's future policy has heightened market volatility, with recent comments from Chairman Powell indicating that future decisions will be data-dependent [1] - This has led to mixed market sentiment regarding potential rate cuts in December [1] Group 4: Government Shutdown and Safe-Haven Demand - The ongoing U.S. government shutdown, which has reached a historical record duration, is a significant source of market risk aversion [1] - The uncertainty surrounding the shutdown and economic risks may provide important support for gold prices as demand for safe-haven assets increases [1] Group 5: Technical Analysis - Technically, gold prices have faced resistance near the $4000 mark and are currently in a range between $3950 and $3970 [3] - If gold prices fall below the $3950 support level, they may further decline to $3920; conversely, a rebound above $4000 could signal a potential upward trend [3]

Economic Impact - The ongoing government shutdown has the potential to negatively impact overall economic growth, with the Congressional Budget Office estimating a decrease in the annual GDP growth rate by 1 to 2 percentage points in Q4 2023, translating to a loss of $7 billion to $14 billion depending on the duration of the shutdown [4][6] - Consumer confidence is expected to be directly affected, as federal employees face delayed wages and contractors experience payment delays, which could impact the traditional holiday shopping season if the shutdown persists [4][6] - The shutdown has already caused significant disruptions in various sectors, including aviation, with over 3.2 million travelers affected by flight delays or cancellations since the shutdown began [3][4] Aviation Sector - Approximately half of the major air traffic control facilities in the U.S. are experiencing staffing shortages, particularly in the New York area where nearly 90% of air traffic controllers are absent [3] - The Department of Transportation has warned that if the shutdown continues, it may have to close certain airspaces due to staffing and safety pressures, potentially leading to longer wait times at airports during the busy Thanksgiving travel season [3][4] Healthcare and Food Assistance - The shutdown has halted the distribution of funds for the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program, affecting over 40 million Americans, with emergency funds being utilized to cover only part of the month's assistance [3][4] - The inability to pass a temporary funding bill has led to significant increases in health insurance premiums, with estimates suggesting an additional $1,000 per year for individuals without government subsidies [2][4] Political Stalemate - The political deadlock between the Republican and Democratic parties continues, with no clear resolution in sight, as both sides appear to be using the shutdown as a political tool rather than seeking a compromise [7][8] - Recent attempts to advance a temporary funding bill have failed to secure the necessary votes, indicating a deepening divide and a lack of urgency to resolve the crisis [7][8]

Core Viewpoint - The recent fluctuations in gold prices have created uncertainty among consumers, with prices rising significantly from previous months, leading to concerns about potential investment risks and market behavior [1][4][10]. Price Trends - Current gold prices range from 1,120 yuan per gram at some retailers to 1,256 yuan per gram at others, compared to over 900 yuan a few months ago, indicating a substantial increase [1][4]. - The gold recycling price is currently around 895 yuan per gram, highlighting the disparity between purchase and resale values [1]. Market Influences - Gold prices are influenced by global economic conditions, exchange rates, inflation, and market sentiment, particularly during times of uncertainty [4]. - Increased demand for gold is noted during the wedding season in China, contributing to rising prices [4]. Investment Considerations - Consumers are advised to differentiate between purchasing gold for personal use versus investment, as jewelry often carries high premiums and lower resale values [8][10]. - For investment purposes, gold bars and coins are recommended due to their higher purity and lower processing costs compared to jewelry [8]. Platinum Comparison - Platinum prices are currently significantly lower than gold, with prices around 560 yuan per gram, reflecting a shift in market dynamics where gold is viewed as a more stable investment [8]. Consumer Guidance - Consumers are encouraged to approach gold purchases with caution, considering their financial capacity and market conditions, and to avoid impulsive buying or selling based on short-term price movements [10].