市场预期

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【期货热点追踪】美豆、美玉米期货价格从多月低点回升,供应过剩会否终结上涨势头?即将公布的两份美国农业部报告将如何影响市场预期?
news flash· 2025-06-27 16:02
Core Insights - U.S. soybean and corn futures prices have rebounded from multi-month lows, raising questions about whether the oversupply will end the upward momentum [1] - Upcoming reports from the U.S. Department of Agriculture are anticipated to influence market expectations significantly [1] Group 1 - The rebound in soybean and corn futures indicates a potential shift in market dynamics after a period of low prices [1] - The market is closely monitoring supply levels to determine if the current upward trend can be sustained [1] - The impact of the forthcoming USDA reports is expected to be critical in shaping future price movements and market sentiment [1]
央行:增强外汇市场韧性 稳定市场预期
news flash· 2025-06-27 10:21
Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China emphasizes the need to enhance the resilience of the foreign exchange market and stabilize market expectations to prevent excessive fluctuations in the exchange rate, aiming to maintain the basic stability of the RMB exchange rate at a reasonable and balanced level [1] Group 1 - The monetary policy committee of the People's Bank of China held its second quarter meeting for 2025 on June 23 [1] - The meeting highlighted the importance of preventing risks associated with exchange rate overshooting [1] - The focus is on maintaining the RMB exchange rate stability within a reasonable and balanced range [1]
风险月报 | 不确定性交织带来情绪与预期的折返跑
中泰证券资管· 2025-06-26 07:22
截至2025年6月20日,中泰资管风险系统对各大资本市场的系统评分情况如下: 沪深300指数的中泰资管风险系统评分为45.39,较上月42.04有所上升,权益评分仍属中等偏低风险区间。 当前市场在政策支持与经济复苏预期的双重作用下,基本面和情绪回暖,但全球不确定性及内部结构分化 仍对整体风险水平形成制约,并带来情绪与预期的折返跑。 沪深300估值较上月有所上升(本月46.58,上月43.53)。虽然估值整体有所回升,行业间估值分化现象依 然延续。目前,28个申万一级行业中钢铁、房地产、商业、国防军工、计算机的行业估值高于历史60%分 位数;农林牧渔、食品饮料、非银金融等行业的估值低于历史10%分位数。市场整体估值的调整,反映了 市场对经济复苏节奏和企业盈利预期的重新评估。 市场预期分数较上月有所下滑(本月48.00,上月55.00)。宏观分析师认为经济仍待政策呵护。消费高速 增长,但持续性需要观察。一些分析师认为美国关税战带来的出口转弱的预期对民间制造业投资的意愿有 较大抑制。月度房地产投资持续下降,商品房销售下滑,也对市场预期带来较大的负面冲击。中美互降关 税的后续政策协同效应仍在评估中。 市场情绪较上月有 ...
大越期货股指期货早报-20250620
Da Yue Qi Huo· 2025-06-20 01:42
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The IC2507 has a discount of 59.43 points, and the IM2507 has a discount of 77.02 points, indicating a bearish signal [3]. - In terms of the market trend, IM > IC > IF > IH (main contracts). IM, IC, and IF are above the 20 - day moving average, showing a bullish sign, while IH is below the 20 - day moving average, suggesting a bearish outlook [3][4]. - For treasury bond futures, the uncertainty of the Israel - Iran situation, consecutive declines in the Hong Kong and A - share small - cap indexes, and a decrease in market hotspots are bearish factors. The margin trading balance increased by 1.4 billion yuan to 1.8167 trillion yuan, which is neutral. The discounts of IH2507 and IF2507 are also neutral [5]. - The main positions of IH and IC show a reduction in long positions, while IF shows an increase in long positions, overall presenting a bullish tendency. Due to concerns about US intervention, increased uncertainty in the Israel - Iran situation, limited positive effects from the Lujiazui Forum, a rebound in crude oil prices, and global stock market adjustments, the domestic index faces increased upward pressure and is expected to undergo a weak adjustment [6]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Index Futures Quotes**: The report provides detailed quotes of various index futures including IH, IF, IC, and IM, such as contract prices, price changes, trading volumes, index prices, price - to - earnings ratios, price - to - book ratios, dividends, spreads, discount ratios, annualized discounts, contract values, delivery dates, and remaining maturities [7]. - **Index Futures Basis and Spreads**: It presents the historical basis and spreads of the Shanghai Composite 50 and CSI 500 index futures, helping to analyze the price relationships between different contracts [9][12]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Important Index Daily Returns**: The daily returns of important indexes such as the Shanghai Composite Index, Shanghai Composite 50, CSI 300, etc., are shown, reflecting the overall performance of the spot market [15][16]. - **Style Index Daily Returns**: The daily returns of style indexes including cyclical, non - cyclical, low - P/E, large - cap, small - cap, etc., are provided, which can be used to analyze the performance of different market styles [18][19][21]. - **Sector Index Daily Returns**: The daily returns of various sector indexes in the Shenwan classification are presented, such as agriculture, basic chemicals, steel, etc., helping to understand the performance of different industries [22]. 3.3 Market Structure - **AH Share Premium**: The historical data of the Hang Seng AH Premium Index is provided, which is useful for analyzing the price differences between A - shares and H - shares [24][25][26]. - **Price - to - Earnings Ratio (PE) and Price - to - Book Ratio (PB)**: The historical P/E and P/B ratios of the Shanghai Composite 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and ChiNext Index are presented, which can be used to evaluate the valuation levels of different indexes [27][29]. 3.4 Market Fundamentals - **Stock Market Fund Inflows**: The historical data of A - share fund net inflows and the CSI 300 index are shown, reflecting the fund flow situation in the stock market [31][32]. - **Margin Trading Balance**: The historical data of margin trading balance and the CSI 300 index are provided, which can be used to analyze the leverage situation in the market [33][34]. - **Northbound Capital Inflows**: The historical data of northbound capital net inflows are presented, showing the flow of foreign funds into the A - share market [35][36]. - **Fund Costs**: The historical data of SHIBOR overnight, SHIBOR one - week, and SHIBOR two - week rates are provided, reflecting the short - term fund costs in the market [41][42]. 3.5 Market Sentiment - **Trading Activity**: The historical turnover rates of the Shanghai Composite 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and ChiNext Index are presented, which can be used to analyze the trading activity in the market [44][47][49]. - **Public - Offering Hybrid Fund Positions**: The historical data of public - offering hybrid fund positions are provided, which can reflect the market sentiment of institutional investors [50]. 3.6 Other Market Indicators - **Dividend Yield and Treasury Bond Yield**: The historical data of index futures dividend yields and the 10 - year treasury bond yield are presented, which can be used to compare the investment returns of different assets [53][54]. - **Exchange Rate**: The historical data of the US dollar against the Chinese yuan exchange rate are provided, which can be used to analyze the impact of exchange rate fluctuations on the market [55][56]. - **New Account Openings and Index Tracking**: The relationship between new account openings and the Shanghai Composite Index is tracked, which can reflect the participation enthusiasm of retail investors [57]. - **Newly Established Fund Sizes**: The changes in the newly established sizes of stock - type, hybrid, and bond - type funds are presented, which can reflect the fund - raising situation in the market [59][61][63].
早盘直击 | 今日行情关注
申万宏源证券上海北京西路营业部· 2025-06-16 01:29
首先,中美经贸磋商提升市场预期,但地缘局势扰动市场神经。上周中美双方在英国举行了新一轮 经贸磋商,这是上周四两国元首电话沟通之后的迅速工作跟进,高效的协调进程有利于缓解市场的担 忧。当然。近期国内资本市场重心缓慢上移,也已经部分定价了该预期。临近周末,中东地区地缘事件 成为扰动市场神经的重要边际变量。上周五,亚太地区的股市大都由此而产生些许调整,不过总体调整 幅度不大,国内股市仍有自我稳定的韧性。 上周,两市震荡微跌,成交再次回升。沪指上周来回拉锯,周中高点接近五月中旬的高点,但最终 小幅调整,沪指收盘跌破五天均线。深圳成指上周围绕 60 天均线反复争夺,周五收盘未能收复该均 线。量能方面,上周两市日均量能超过了 13000 亿,连续两周回升。上周市场热点主要集中在上游资源 品和医药行业。投资风格方面,中小盘风格跌幅更大,大盘蓝筹相对抗跌。 从市场运行节奏看,沪指反身向上,但在 5 月中旬的高点附近遇到阻力。沪指于 5 月中旬逐步向下 调整,呈现高低点同步下移特征。但最终在 60 天均线获得支撑后,重新展开了一波反弹,上周在接近 5 月中旬的高点后,遇阻回落。这提示我们,去年四季度的成交密集区以及今年一季度的 ...
国常会发布!地产要涨了?下周,A股要修复跌幅了
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-06-14 04:10
Group 1 - The A-share market is showing a clear upward trend, with a significant portion of stocks likely to provide profits for retail investors, despite their current pessimism [1][3] - The recovery of the real estate market is seen as a core element of domestic economic circulation, which will positively impact both the real estate and stock markets [3][5] - The expectation is that the Shanghai Composite Index will soon recover to 3400 points, but this does not guarantee that individual stocks will also rebound [5][7] Group 2 - The market sentiment is currently negative, particularly towards sectors like liquor and real estate, but historical patterns suggest that these sectors may lead the market recovery [3][5] - The upcoming policy measures are expected to focus on boosting consumption, particularly in real estate, which is viewed as a major commodity [5][7] - The overall market index is anticipated to rise, driven by a few key stocks, although individual stock performance may vary [7]
金信期货日刊-20250612
Jin Xin Qi Huo· 2025-06-11 23:51
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views - On June 11, 2025, the rebar futures price rose to 2991 yuan/ton, driven by macro - economic factors, policies, market supply - demand, and market expectations [3][4]. - For stock index futures, it is expected that the market will likely maintain high - level fluctuations [7]. - Gold is in a short - term oscillatory pattern but is bullish in the long run, and the operation should focus on going long, with low - buying recommended instead of chasing the rise [11][12]. - Iron ore is a strong variety in the black series. Despite over - valuation risks due to weak reality, the continuous decline in port inventory supports the market, and a bullish - oscillatory view is recommended [15][16]. - For glass, an oscillatory - bullish view remains, waiting for the effect of real - estate stimulus or major policy announcements [18]. - Urea prices are in a weak adjustment. With domestic daily production at about 20.56 tons and an 87.23% operating rate, agricultural demand is slow, and when reaching the previous support area, there is a risk of a strong rebound from the long side [22]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Rebar Futures - The price increase is due to domestic economic recovery driving demand, government environmental policies reducing supply, supply - demand imbalances caused by cost and policy factors, and positive market expectations [4]. Stock Index Futures - The market is expected to maintain high - level fluctuations, with the background of China and the US reaching an agreement framework in principle [7]. Gold - It is in a short - term oscillatory pattern, but long - term bullish. Operationally, it is advisable to go long and choose low - buying [11][12]. Iron Ore - There is an over - valuation risk due to weak reality, but the continuous decline in port inventory supports the market. Technically, the lower support is effective, and a bullish - oscillatory view is recommended [15][16]. Glass - Supply has not seen significant cold - repair due to losses, factory inventories are high, and downstream demand is weak. An oscillatory - bullish view remains, waiting for real - estate stimulus or major policies [18][19]. Urea - Domestic daily production is about 20.56 tons with an 87.23% operating rate. Agricultural demand is slow, prices are in a weak adjustment, and when reaching the previous support area, there is a risk of a long - side rebound [22].
炒黄金如何借通胀指数的东风?领峰贵金属送你一份操作攻略
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-05-29 08:20
黄金,作为亘古不变的"金融避风港",其价格波动始终与全球经济脉搏紧密相连。其中,美国通胀指数 是影响黄金走势的核心变量之一。投资者想要把准市场风向,密切关注通胀指数的波动趋势与政策联动 效应是很有必要的。那么,如何理解这些指数与黄金的关系?投资者又该如何借助专业平台捕捉数据行 情?今天,领峰贵金属将与大家一起揭晓美国通胀指数的奥秘,以及我们应如何借助这股东风在黄金投 资中乘风破浪。 一、美国三大通胀指数:黄金市场的"晴雨表" 通胀数据的每一次波动,都可能触动黄金市场敏感神经。作为美联储政策调整的核心依据,CPI、PPI、 PCE三大指数不仅映射着美国经济的冷热交替,更通过复杂的传导机制,改写黄金的定价逻辑。这些数 据的细微变化,或是政策转向的"预警信号",或是市场情绪的"催化剂",唯有深入剖析其内在关联,投 资者方能穿透数据迷雾,捕捉黄金市场的真实动向。 1.消费者物价指数(CPI) CPI是美国劳工统计局发布的,反映一篮子消费品和服务价格变化的指标。它直接关联民众生活成本, 是衡量通胀水平的常用指标。例如,当CPI数据持续攀升,意味着货币购买力下降,生活成本上升,市 场通胀压力增大。 2.生产者物价指数(P ...
风险月报 | 中美互降关税后市场基本面、预期回暖,市场情绪有所下降
中泰证券资管· 2025-05-22 09:52
截至2025年5月20日,中泰资管风险系统对各大资本市场的系统评分情况如下: 沪深300指数的中泰资管风险系统评分为42.04,较上月45.53有所下降,权益评分仍属中等偏低风险区间。 结合上期数据来看,本期在估值和预期回暖的同时,情绪得分却有所下滑。 沪深300估值较上月有所上升(本月43.53,上月38.93)。估值整体有所回升,其中国防军工回升最为明 显,但行业间估值分化现象依然延续。目前,28个申万一级行业中钢铁、房地产、商业、国防军工、计算 机、汽车的行业估值高于历史60%分位数;农林牧渔、非银金融等行业的估值低于历史10%分位数。市场 整体估值的调整,反映了市场对经济复苏节奏和企业盈利预期的重新评估。 市场预期分数较上月有所上升(本月55.00,上月48.00)。宏观分析师认为,4月金融数据显示政策靠前发 力和低基数支撑社融,实体经济融资需求仍弱。中美互降关税后,投资者对于全球经济形势的担忧情绪有 所缓解。 市场情绪较上月有所下降(本月34.07,上月50.89;分数越低表示市场情绪越低迷),需要指出的是,统 计期内市场预期体现的是专业投资者对于市场的判断,而情绪指标则反应的是整体市场的交易情况。 ...