｜2025年3月31日 星期一｜ NO.1 国泰君安、招商证券、中国银河重回净利百亿俱乐部 近日，中国证券业协会发布券商2024年度经营数据，证券公司未经审计财务报表显示，150家证券公司 2024年度实现营业收入4511.69亿元，实现净利润1672.57亿元。在22家已披露2024年成绩单的上市券商 中，有17家归母净利润同比增长，占比接近八成。值得关注的是，中信证券、华泰证券、国泰君安、招 商证券和中国银河五家头部券商归母净利润超过百亿元，其中国泰君安、招商证券和中国银河等三家券 商2024年重新回到"净利百亿俱乐部"。此外，广发证券和东方财富归母净利润也均超95亿元，接近百亿 元。 NO.2 中央汇金持有ETF总市值突破万亿元 多只龙头宽基ETF披露2024年年报，中央汇金的持仓动向随之曝光。Wind数据显示，截至2024年末，中 央汇金投资有限责任公司持有ETF的数量为21只，与2024年6月末保持一致；中央汇金投资有限责任公 司全资子公司中央汇金资产管理有限责任公司持有ETF的数量由2024年6月末的9只增至2024年末的15 只。以持有ETF总市值计算，截至2024年末，中央汇金投资有限责任公司 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of understanding the fundamental differences between the Hong Kong stock market and the A-share market, urging investors to remain rational and prepared for risks when participating in the Hong Kong market [1][3][4]. Group 1: Investment Strategies - Investors are increasingly focusing on Hong Kong-listed companies, with a notable presence of Hong Kong heavyweights in A-share fund portfolios, indicating a shift in investment strategies [1]. - The article suggests that early-career fund managers should prioritize studying established companies with proven business models rather than speculative growth stocks, which are harder to predict [2][12]. - The concept of "basic questions" versus "additional questions" in investment is introduced, advocating for a focus on value stocks based on free cash flow as a safer approach for novice fund managers [11][13]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The article highlights the independent pricing system of the Hong Kong market, which requires investors to understand its unique risks, especially for those accustomed to A-share investment logic [3][4]. - It points out that the Hong Kong market relies heavily on fundamental analysis for pricing, contrasting with the thematic investment approach prevalent in the A-share market [4][6]. - The liquidity disparity between the two markets is significant, with A-share market transaction volumes being approximately ten times higher than those in the Hong Kong market, affecting asset pricing efficiency [4][6]. Group 3: Risk Management - The article warns that the Hong Kong market can present "pits" for uninformed investors, emphasizing the need for thorough market understanding and risk management strategies [3][5]. - It discusses the importance of monitoring capital flows and external market impacts, as the Hong Kong market is sensitive to liquidity changes and foreign investment trends [5][9]. - The article also notes that while institutional investors may appear rational, they can engage in trend-following behaviors that inflate stock valuations, highlighting the need for caution [10][14]. Group 4: Long-term Investment Perspective - The article advocates for a long-term investment approach, emphasizing the need for patience and thorough research in identifying undervalued stocks in the Hong Kong market [6][8]. - It suggests that successful investment requires a deep understanding of a company's fundamentals, management quality, and market positioning, rather than relying solely on market trends [12][13]. - The importance of maintaining a diversified portfolio to manage risks and achieve stable returns in the volatile Hong Kong market is also emphasized [7][8].

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced significant volatility during the week of February 24-28, 2025, with all major indices declining, particularly the ChiNext index which fell by 4.87% [2] - The Shanghai Composite Index decreased by 1.72%, the Shanghai 50 by 1.61%, the CSI 300 by 2.22%, the CSI 500 by 3.26%, and the CSI 1000 by 2.77% [2] - The market is expected to enter a consolidation phase after a rapid adjustment on February 28, with growth stocks and small-cap stocks likely to remain dominant [2] Valuation Insights - As of February 28, 2025, major indices such as the Shanghai Composite, Shanghai 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 are at a "moderate" valuation level, while the ChiNext index is at a "safe" valuation level [2] - In terms of sector performance, industries like oil and petrochemicals, electricity and utilities, food and beverage, agriculture, non-bank financials, and transportation are also rated at a "safe" valuation level [2] Volatility Analysis - The cross-sectional volatility of the CSI 300 and CSI 500 index constituents decreased compared to the previous week, indicating a weakening short-term Alpha environment [3] - Conversely, the cross-sectional volatility of the CSI 1000 index constituents increased, suggesting an improvement in the short-term Alpha environment [3] Fund Flow Tracking - The top five stocks attracting institutional attention this week were Huichuan Technology (480 institutions), Digital政通 (215), Transsion Holdings (194), Juguang Technology (141), and World (136) [4] - Southbound capital saw a net inflow of HKD 749.67 billion during the trading period from February 24 to February 28, 2025, with the Shanghai Stock Connect contributing HKD 413.34 billion and the Shenzhen Stock Connect contributing HKD 336.33 billion [4] - The median return for stock ETFs was -2.68%, with a net outflow of CNY 189.23 billion, while the median return for Hong Kong stock ETFs was -2.85% with a net inflow of HKD 136.43 billion [4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes that the spring market trend is expected to continue, driven by policy and economic data catalysts, with a focus on growth and consumer sectors [4] - The A-share market has experienced significant volatility, with major indices declining, particularly the ChiNext Index, while growth stocks and small-cap stocks are expected to outperform [5] - The oil and chemical sectors are poised for recovery due to easing geopolitical tensions, benefiting downstream refining companies from reduced cost pressures [7][8] Group 2 - The low-altitude economy is projected to reach a market size of 1.5 trillion yuan in 2025, with significant growth in the humanoid robot market, expected to grow from approximately 1.19 million units to 60.57 million units by 2030 [9] - The Hong Kong stock market has seen increased trading activity since September 2024, leading to record financial performance, with anticipated boosts from mainland China's stimulus policies [10]