Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - **Macro Economic Outlook for China**: The actual GDP growth target for 2026 is expected to be around 5%, reflecting government confidence and policy strength. Over the next decade, GDP growth must not be lower than 3.5% to reach the level of moderately developed countries [1][4] - **Fiscal Policy**: The fiscal policy is expected to remain expansionary, with a fiscal deficit rate maintained at around 4%. Special government bonds may increase to 2 trillion, and special bonds could reach 4.6 trillion [1][5][6] - **Investment and Consumption**: Investment is anticipated to achieve positive growth in 2026, while export growth is expected to remain strong but slightly decrease to 3.5%-4%. Consumption is influenced by subsidy uncertainties and needs further analysis [1][7] Key Points - **New Economy Contribution**: The new economy's share of GDP has risen to approximately 18%, with high-tech investment accounting for 12% of total investment. The new economy has surpassed the traditional economy in scale, significantly driving economic growth [1][12] - **Impact of Artificial Intelligence**: AI significantly affects energy demand, with data centers' electricity consumption continuously increasing, driving demand for energy storage and raw materials like copper, aluminum, silicon, and rare earths [1][13] - **Consumer Market Performance**: In 2025, consumer growth reached its best level in 20 years, but sales of subsidized goods have declined. Internal consumption momentum is rising, with significant contributions from daily necessities, services, and cultural education products [1][14] Additional Insights - **Real Estate Market Trends**: Although the real estate market is still experiencing negative growth, the rate of decline is slowing, indicating stabilization. Policy support is crucial, and adjustments to mortgage rates are necessary to stabilize housing demand [2][21][23] - **Price Trends**: CPI is expected to return to around 0.5% in 2026, while PPI may also recover but is projected to remain negative. This indicates potential improvements in industrial profit margins and boosts confidence in listed companies' earnings [2][24][26] - **Future of Capital Markets**: The outlook for the capital market is optimistic, with expectations that the technology sector will continue to lead. The market performance will be influenced more by industry highlights and mid-level performance rather than macroeconomic fluctuations [1][29]

Core Insights - The "Technology Board" in the bond market has made significant progress in its first six months, with over 530 billion yuan raised for 276 companies, including 230 tech firms and 46 equity investment institutions [1][2]. Group 1: Impact of Technology Bonds - Technology bonds address the financing challenges faced by tech enterprises, serving as a crucial bridge between finance and technology, enhancing industrial competitiveness and economic growth potential [1]. - The issuance of technology bonds has surpassed 10% of the total debt financing tools in the interbank market, marking a 5 percentage point increase since their introduction [1]. - The Yangtze River Delta, Pearl River Delta, and Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei regions account for over 60% of the issuance volume [1]. Group 2: Financing Benefits - Technology bonds provide a significant medium- to long-term funding channel for tech companies, facilitating a diversified financing system that includes equity, debt, and loans [2]. - They help reduce financing costs for tech firms, improving the efficiency and precision of financial support for the real economy, with technology bond yields consistently lower than those of ordinary credit bonds since May [2]. - The issuance of technology bonds diversifies investment options in a low-interest-rate environment, shifting investor focus from traditional sectors to high-growth tech innovation areas [2]. Group 3: Participation and Future Outlook - The participation of private enterprises in the technology bond market has notably increased, with over 50 private companies issuing 107.4 billion yuan, representing 20% of the total issuance [3]. - The market for technology bonds is expected to expand further, supported by policies aimed at enhancing risk-sharing mechanisms and diversifying product types and investor profiles [3].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the structural rise of the Japanese stock market during the "lost two decades" post-1990, emphasizing that despite overall economic stagnation, there were significant structural changes and investment opportunities within the market [3][4]. Group 1: Structural Market Changes - Japan experienced a structural rise in its stock market driven by economic transformation, including increased overseas exposure, high-tech leadership, and improved corporate governance [3][4]. - The "new economy" sectors, excluding the "old economy" sectors heavily exposed to real estate and deflation, showed a strong upward trend post-1990, particularly in industries such as industrial, technology, communication, and even consumer sectors [3][12]. - The Nikkei index recorded negative returns overall, but the "new economy" index achieved an annualized compound return of 7.3%, outperforming other Asian countries and aligning closely with global averages excluding the U.S. [12][14]. Group 2: Overseas Exposure - Japan's export growth continued post-1990, with the export-to-GDP ratio rising from 10% in the early 1990s to 20% before the global financial crisis, with industrial goods and capital equipment making up a significant portion [24][26]. - Outward Direct Investment (ODI) increased significantly, from 0.3% of GDP in 1993 to 2.2% in 2008, with manufacturing being the primary focus, particularly in high-end sectors [26][29]. - The increase in ODI led to a rise in overseas production and sales, with overseas branches contributing over 30% to the revenue of Japanese manufacturing firms [31][32]. Group 3: High-Tech Leadership - Japan maintained a strong position in high-tech sectors despite domestic economic stagnation, with high-tech product exports consistently accounting for over 85% of total exports since the 1990s [42][44]. - R&D investment as a percentage of GDP rose from 2.5% to over 3%, surpassing the OECD average, indicating a commitment to innovation and technological advancement [42][44]. - Labor productivity in manufacturing increased by 50% during the "lost decade," reflecting the positive impact of high-tech industries on overall economic performance [51][53]. Group 4: Corporate Governance Improvements - Post-1990, Japan's corporate governance underwent significant changes, with an increase in foreign investor participation leading to a focus on profitability and shareholder returns [60][62]. - Reforms in corporate governance included lowering litigation costs for minority shareholders, aligning management compensation with company performance, and allowing stock buybacks, which improved shareholder value [63][67]. - The financial health of "new economy" sectors improved significantly, with return on equity (ROE) surpassing that of "old economy" sectors, indicating a shift towards more sustainable and profitable business practices [69][70]. Group 5: Stable Capital Inflows - Stable capital inflows, particularly from long-term and overseas investors, provided essential support for the structural rise of the Japanese stock market [74][76]. - The proportion of overseas funds in the Japanese stock market increased significantly post-bubble, contributing to improved corporate governance and performance [76][80]. - Long-term funds, especially from insurance and pension sectors, remained stable, while domestic retail investor participation declined, highlighting a shift in market dynamics [74][79].

每经记者｜周程程 每经编辑｜毕陆名 8月7日，国家市场监督管理总局发布了《2018年上半年市场环境形势分析》（以下简称"《分析》"）显 示，上半年，市场主体总量超过1亿户，达到标志性高点，至6月底实有1.03亿户。 其中，企业3231.5万户，占31.4%。按2017年底全国人口计算，平均每千人拥有市场主体74.09户，平均 每千人拥有企业23.25户。 值得注意的是，从重点行业看，制造业新设企业同比增速由一季度下降1.9%提升为增长1.9%；金融企 业继续负增长，下降4.4%；房地产业保持较快增速，增长20.6%。 从企业类型看，外商投资企业保持高速增长态势，新设4.5万户，增长97.4%。特别是在粤港澳大湾区开 放政策的积极影响下，广东新设外资企业2.4万户，增长2.2倍，占全国的54.7%。 市场监管总局指出，新设市场主体的大量涌现，成为创业创新活力的重要标志，对促进就业、增加税收 和促进经济健康发展发挥了重要作用。 图片来源：新华社 数据显示，1~5月，新办理注册登记的税务管理户439.51万户，同比增长7.64%。据测算，新办税务管理 户创办当年纳税对税收增长的贡献率为4.9%，比上年同期提高1.2 ...

Group 1 - UBS forecasts that China's economy will gradually show resilience and achieve rebalancing from 2026 to 2027, driven by moderate policy expansion and structural reforms [2][3] - By 2027, real estate activity is expected to stabilize, export growth will return to normal, and consumer confidence will remain steady, supporting stable GDP growth [3] - The "new economy" is anticipated to be a key driver of future economic growth, supported by innovation and continuous optimization of industrial structure [4][5] Group 2 - The "new economy" encompasses new industries, new business formats, and new models, including modern agriculture, advanced manufacturing, renewable energy, and information technology services [5] - The 14th Five-Year Plan emphasizes technological innovation and self-reliance, aiming for breakthroughs in key technology areas such as integrated circuits and artificial intelligence [6] - Investment in high-tech manufacturing and services is projected to account for nearly 13% of total fixed asset investment by 2024, doubling since 2016 [7] Group 3 - In response to external uncertainties and the need to restore consumer and business confidence, UBS expects China to implement moderate macroeconomic policies in 2026, with a growth target set between 4.5% and 5.0% [9] - The fiscal deficit rate is projected to expand by about 1% of GDP in 2026, supporting local government spending and infrastructure investment [9] - The shift in consumption policy aims to significantly increase the proportion of resident consumption in GDP from 40% in 2024 to 43%-45% by 2030, focusing on structural improvements rather than short-term stimuli [10]

Economic Outlook - The global economy is expected to remain weak for the next 4-5 months due to tariffs, but growth is anticipated to accelerate thereafter, particularly influenced by AI developments by 2026 [3][5] - In the baseline scenario, global GDP growth is projected at 3.2% for 2025, slightly decreasing to 3.1% in 2026, and then rising to 3.3% in 2027 [5] - The impact of tariffs is expected to suppress global exports and domestic prices in the U.S., while central banks in major emerging economies continue to lower interest rates [5][10] U.S. Economic Insights - The U.S. economy's expansion is primarily concentrated in AI-related sectors, with GDP growth forecasted to slow from 1.9% in 2025 to 1.7% in 2026 due to tariff impacts [10][11] - Inflation is expected to peak around mid-2026, with core PCE inflation projected to decline to 2.9% by Q4 2026 and 2.4% by Q4 2027 [10] - The Federal Reserve is likely to continue lowering interest rates, with potential cuts of 25 basis points in December 2025 and January 2026 [11] China Economic Forecast - China's GDP growth is expected to moderate to 4.5% in 2026, influenced by a slowdown in exports and a resilient domestic economy [13] - Policy support is anticipated to remain moderate, with fiscal deficits expected to expand slightly [13][14] - The "new economy" sectors are projected to grow at a compound annual growth rate of 7-8% during the 14th Five-Year Plan period (2026-2030) [14] Eurozone and Japan Outlook - The Eurozone's GDP growth is projected to slow to 1.1% in 2026, primarily due to the lagging effects of weak growth in late 2025 [15] - Japan may experience a technical recession in late 2025 but is expected to rebound in mid-2026, supported by a potentially expansionary fiscal policy [16] Market Outlook - The S&P 500 index is expected to have about 10% upside in 2026, driven by approximately 14% earnings growth, with a significant contribution from technology companies [18][19] - The current technology cycle is compared to the 1990s, with substantial capital expenditure growth but still below historical peaks [20] Fixed Income and Currency Insights - The impact of tariffs on inflation is expected to limit the reduction in front-end interest rates, with the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield projected to drop to 3.50% before rising to 4% by the end of 2026 [21] - The U.S. dollar is expected to maintain its attractiveness compared to other major markets, with the euro projected to trade between 1.14 and 1.18 against the dollar in 2026 [22] Commodity Insights - Gold is expected to outperform industrial and energy commodities, despite currently high valuations, with a reassessment anticipated in late 2026 [23]

Core Viewpoint - The 19th Shenzhen International Financial Expo highlights optimism regarding China's economic future, driven by new technological revolutions and internal economic adjustments [1] Economic Cycle Analysis - The difficulties affecting China's economy, such as issues in the real estate sector, are diminishing, while new growth drivers like artificial intelligence are strengthening [1] - The ongoing deepening of reform and opening-up policies continues to release positive forces for economic recovery [1] - The challenging phase of the Chinese economy is approaching its end [1] Technological Revolution Perspective - A new technological revolution, characterized by advancements in artificial intelligence and biomedicine, is progressing rapidly [1] - Unlike previous technological and industrial revolutions where China was a bystander, it is now a participant and leader in this new wave [1] - The new economy is expected to significantly influence and dominate China's future development [1] Long-term Strategic Focus - Emphasizing the importance of self-improvement and addressing internal challenges is crucial for enhancing competitiveness [1] - The future will favor those who strengthen themselves and effectively resolve their issues [1] - A brighter future is anticipated for entities that can elevate their competitiveness in the face of global changes [1]

Core Viewpoint - The year 2026 marks the beginning of China's "14th Five-Year Plan" and is seen as a crucial opportunity for economic structural optimization and transformation of development momentum amid rapid technological and industrial changes [1] Economic Outlook - Multiple institutions predict that China's economy will maintain stable growth within a reasonable range in 2026, with a solid foundation for high-quality development [2] - Economic resilience is expected to continue, with moderate growth in consumption and a recovery in infrastructure and manufacturing investments [2][3] - Investment in broad infrastructure and manufacturing is anticipated to remain strong, with stable growth in consumer demand [2] Innovation and New Economy - The "new economy" sectors, including artificial intelligence, high-end manufacturing, and biomedicine, are projected to experience rapid growth in 2026, becoming key drivers of high-quality economic development [2][3] - It is estimated that by 2024, innovation-driven "new economy" sectors will account for 15% to 20% of China's nominal GDP and contribute approximately one-fourth of GDP growth from 2020 to 2024 [3] - The private sector's capital expenditure in high-tech fields is expected to accelerate, significantly boosting manufacturing investments compared to 2025 [3] Policy Support - The policy direction for the next five years is becoming clearer, with a focus on enhancing technological self-reliance and achieving high-quality "zeroing" in critical areas [4] - A new policy financial tool of 500 billion yuan aimed at supporting the digital economy and artificial intelligence has been fully deployed, which is expected to drive faster development in these sectors in 2026 [4] External Environment - Experts believe that the China-U.S. trade relationship is likely to stabilize in 2026, with a reduction in the "disorderliness" of U.S. policies, leading to improved export growth for China [5][6] - The global economic environment is expected to become more favorable, with synchronized fiscal and monetary policies in many countries, which will help reduce investment risks and boost external demand [5][6] - China's exports to the U.S. may see significant growth due to base effects from 2025, while exports to other countries are expected to maintain rapid growth driven by companies exploring non-U.S. markets [6] Conclusion - Overall, 2026 is positioned as a year for balancing stable growth, promoting innovation, and optimizing structure, with the potential for qualitative improvements and reasonable quantitative growth in China's economy, supported by policy, industrial upgrades, and an improved external environment [7]

Group 1 - The report suggests that the Hong Kong stock market is at the beginning of a systematic valuation uplift, with the implied equity risk premium (ERP) reaching a low of approximately 5%, indicating potential for further downward adjustment in the long term [10][20][28] - The report highlights that the Hong Kong stock market's industry structure has significantly changed over the past decade, with new economy sectors like technology surpassing traditional sectors in market capitalization and trading volume, which should lead to an upward adjustment in valuation levels [28][31] - The report emphasizes the importance of AI in driving growth in the technology sector, with companies like Alibaba Cloud showing strong revenue growth and profitability improvements due to AI-related services [87][90] Group 2 - The report discusses the interwoven dynamics of fundamentals and liquidity in the Hong Kong stock market, noting that improvements in the Producer Price Index (PPI) are expected to enhance risk appetite and attract foreign investment [4][62] - The report indicates that the Hong Kong stock market is experiencing a significant inflow of foreign capital, particularly through the Stock Connect program, which is expected to reduce the offshore discount and align valuations more closely with global markets [31][35] - The report identifies the cyclical themes and dividend-paying stocks as attractive investment opportunities, particularly in sectors like non-bank financials and utilities, which are expected to benefit from improving economic indicators [91]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that E Fund Management has officially changed the name of its H-share ETF (510900) to "Hang Seng China Enterprises ETF" starting from November 18, 2025, aligning the name with the underlying index for better investor understanding [1] - The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index has evolved since its inception in 1994, initially covering only state-owned enterprises and later including red-chip stocks and private enterprises, now representing "core assets of Hong Kong-listed Chinese companies" [1] - The index currently consists of core enterprises rooted in the Chinese mainland market, focusing on the "China mainland story," with major companies like Tencent, Meituan, and Xiaomi, where consumer discretionary, information technology, and communication services account for over 60% of the index [1] Group 2 - The name change to "Hang Seng China Enterprises ETF" reflects a modernization effort and aligns with the index's essence, continuing E Fund's initiative for standardized naming of ETFs [1] - E Fund has taken the lead in the industry this year by batch-adjusting the names of its ETFs, achieving a standardized naming convention of "index name + ETF" or "index name + ETF + company name," enhancing investor recognition and searchability [1]