Summary of Credit Bond Yield Trends in April Overall Credit Bond Performance - In April, credit bond yields exhibited a downward trend overall, with short-term spreads narrowing across the board. However, the decline in medium to long-term yields was less pronounced compared to the same maturity national development bonds, leading to a widening of credit spreads [5][9][11]. - By the end of April, short-term credit spreads remained at historically low levels, while medium to long-term financial bonds were at relatively high historical percentiles [5][11]. Industry-Specific Credit Spread Trends - **Industrial Bonds**: Most AAA-rated industrial bonds saw credit spreads widen in April. Among public bonds, the financial holding sector experienced the largest widening of 8.68 basis points, while the textile and apparel sector saw the most significant narrowing of 4.89 basis points. In private bonds, the basic chemical and retail sectors experienced slight narrowing, while other sectors generally widened by 3-10 basis points, with the steel sector widening the most at 10.86 basis points [13][15]. - **Local Government Bonds**: Credit spreads for local government bonds showed mixed trends, with lower-rated bonds generally narrowing while higher-rated bonds widened. Regions with relatively high spreads, such as Guizhou and Qinghai, mostly saw narrowing, while lower spread regions like Beijing and Shanghai experienced widening [5][9]. - **Financial Bonds**: The credit spreads for bank perpetual bonds mostly narrowed, while the spreads for securities company subordinated bonds and insurance company capital replenishment bonds widened across the board [5][9]. Historical Context - The credit spreads for various types of bonds remained at historically low levels, with AA-rated public and private industrial bonds reaching 30%-50% of their historical percentiles. Financial bonds generally had higher spread levels, exceeding the 30% historical percentile [11][12]. Key Industry Observations - In April, the steel and coal industries saw credit spreads widen across the board, with changes not exceeding 7 basis points. The high-grade bonds in these sectors experienced more significant widening. The electricity and construction engineering sectors also saw most spreads widen [15][16].

Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Report's Core View - Fundamental factors are unlikely to break the narrow - range fluctuation pattern of the bond market. The decline in deposit rates is a short - term positive for non - bank allocation demand. The bond market is reasonably priced compared to credit and other broad - spectrum interest rates, but has a lower cost - performance ratio compared to the stock market. Chinese bonds are a global interest - rate low - lying area. In the short term, continue to focus on non - bank allocation, PMI data, and bond supply. The judgment that the 10 - year Treasury bond will fluctuate in the range of 1.5% - 1.8% remains unchanged. [6] - In terms of operations, continue to recommend 3 - and 5 - year credit bonds and Tier 2 capital bonds, and seek opportunities for spread compression through short - end credit downgrading and long - end high - grade bonds. Long - term and ultra - long - term interest - rate bonds are more suitable for trading than allocation, and continue to buy on dips. The cost - performance ratio of the previously recommended ultra - long local bonds has slightly weakened, while that of policy - financial bonds has slightly increased. [6] Summary by Relevant Catalogs This Week's Strategy View: Looking for Opportunities along the Bond Market Pricing System - Last week, the funding situation was stable. Economic data was released, and the cuts in deposit rates and LPR were implemented. The auction result of the 50 - year Treasury bond was poor, and yields fluctuated within a narrow range. Throughout the week, the yield of the active 10 - year Treasury bond rose 1BP to 1.69% compared to the previous week, the 10 - year CDB bond yield fell 1BP to 1.74%, and the 30 - year Treasury bond yield remained unchanged at 1.92%. The 10 - 1 - year term spread widened, and credit spreads remained largely unchanged. [10] - The bond market has been in a narrow - range fluctuation pattern since the suspension of Sino - US tariffs. Last week's deposit - rate cut failed to break the bond - market equilibrium. Currently, investors generally believe that the bond market has a high probability of winning but a low odds ratio. The report explores bond - market pricing from multiple dimensions. [11] Comparison with Credit and Other Broad - Spectrum Interest Rates - The pricing of the bond market is basically reasonable. There is a transmission between bonds and deposits/loans through the price - comparison effect and institutional behavior. After the recent LPR cut, some banks maintained the original 3% mortgage rate for new mortgages. If 3% is the bottom line for mortgage rates, the 30 - year Treasury bond rate may have also bottomed out. Currently, the 30 - year Treasury bond is 2BP higher than the after - tax mortgage rate, with limited upside. [12][13] - In practice, three factors prevent a simple comparison between bonds and loans: different availability of the two types of assets, the influence of non - bank trading desks not being considered, and banks' asset - allocation decisions being affected by multiple factors other than just returns. The cut in deposit rates directly benefits non - bank bond allocation. In the future, banks will face increased difficulty in liability management. [14][15] Comparison with Overseas Markets - Chinese bonds have become a global interest - rate low - lying area, but the short - term adjustment risk is limited. Recently, the sharp rise in US and Japanese bond yields has attracted global attention. The root causes are the reshaping of the global financial order, high debt levels, tight monetary policies, and large - scale long - bond auctions. [2] - China's interest rates are at a global low, especially at the ultra - long end. However, there is no need to worry about Chinese bond yields rising in tandem with overseas markets in the short term, as the influence of overseas interest rates on the Chinese bond market is limited. In the process of global capital reallocation, Chinese bonds and stocks may be relatively beneficiary assets. In the long run (2 - 3 years), there are concerns about the repricing of term spreads. [2][22][26] Comparison with the Stock Market - The bond market has a lower cost - performance ratio compared to the stock market. Currently, the dividend yields of the CSI 300, the dividend index, and the Hang Seng High - Dividend Index are approximately 3.4%, 6.7%, and 8% respectively. Considering the tax - exemption effect of insurance investments in Hong Kong stocks, their value far exceeds that of investing in ultra - long bonds. [3] - In the past two years, the imbalance in the cost - performance ratio between stocks and bonds has persisted. The core reason is that stocks carry price - fluctuation risks while offering high dividends. If the stock market can maintain an upward - trending and less - volatile pattern, there is a possibility of bond - market funds gradually flowing into the stock market to achieve a balance between stocks and bonds. [3] Comparison of Spreads among Bond Market Varieties - Regarding the pricing model of policy rates → funds → short - end → long - end, currently, the role of the MLF policy rate has diminished, and OMO is the most important pricing anchor in the bond market. However, the current term spreads are relatively flat, making it difficult to price long - term and ultra - long - term bonds according to historical rules. In the future, it is difficult for the yield - curve shape to steepen trendily, and investors should focus on finding relative opportunities. [31][32] - In terms of credit spreads, in the context of debt resolution and stricter urban - investment supervision in recent years, the "scarcity of credit assets" has become more prominent. Credit spreads still have room for compression. Specifically, avoid 1 - year ordinary credit bonds for now; 3 - 5 - year credit spreads still offer good value, and high - grade (AAA) credit spreads over 5 years are relatively attractive. Currently, inter - bank certificates of deposit have a better cost - performance ratio than short - term credit bonds, but there may be supply - demand disturbances at certain times. [33][34] - The spreads among bond varieties have significantly compressed. Low - liquidity policy - financial bonds have a slightly better cost - performance ratio, while the cost - performance ratio of local bonds has slightly weakened. [40] This Week's Operation Suggestions - Currently, the bond - market pricing is reasonable compared to credit and other broad - spectrum interest rates, but has a lower cost - performance ratio compared to overseas markets and the stock market. The fundamentals are still in a state of differentiation and bottom - grinding. The decline in deposit rates is positive for non - bank allocation demand. The long - term trend of the bond market has not reversed, but the trading space is limited, and it remains in a narrow - range fluctuation pattern in the short term. [42] - The market lacks major catalysts, so only short - term information such as funds and institutional behavior can be traded. This week, pay attention to PMI and credit - demand data, which are expected to be relatively strong and slightly negative for bonds. In terms of funds, as this week enters the end - of - month trading period, the funding center may rise slightly, but the central bank is expected to provide active support. In terms of institutional behavior, the deposit - rate cut last week led to an increase in inter - bank certificates of deposit and increased subscriptions of funds by wealth - management products, indicating that deposit migration is occurring, providing real - world support for bond - market allocation demand. [42] - In the medium term, the decline in broad - spectrum interest rates will have a certain impact on the bond market. The low of the 10 - year Treasury bond this year is expected to be around 1.5%, but it may be difficult to break through in the second quarter. The upper limit is expected to be between 1.7% - 1.8%. Therefore, if there is further adjustment from the current level, consider entering the market for allocation. [42] - In terms of operations, continue to recommend 3 - and 5 - year credit bonds and Tier 2 capital bonds, and seek opportunities for spread compression through short - end credit downgrading and long - end high - grade bonds. The narrow - range fluctuation pattern of long - term and ultra - long - term interest - rate bonds remains unchanged, so continue to buy on dips. The cost - performance ratio of the previously recommended ultra - long local bonds has slightly weakened, while that of policy - financial bonds has slightly increased. Inter - bank certificates of deposit are initially in the allocation range, but may fluctuate at relatively high levels due to liability - side disturbances. [44] This Week's Core Focus This week, focus on China's industrial - enterprise profits in April, the official manufacturing PMI in May, the euro - zone economic sentiment index in May, the Fed's monetary - policy meeting minutes in May, the US PCE in April, and the end - of - month funding situation. [45]

1. Investment Rating of the Reported Industry There is no information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Views of the Report - The bond market is in a stalemate and under slight pressure, with ultra - long bonds rising first and then falling. The trading activity of ultra - long bonds decreased slightly last week, but it was still quite active. The term spread of ultra - long bonds narrowed, and the variety spread showed mixed trends [1][4][11]. - For the 30 - year treasury bond, as of May 23, the spread between the 30 - year and 10 - year treasury bonds was 17BP, at a historically low level. With the weakening of policy support, the probability of a decline in bond yields is higher, but the term spread protection is limited [2][12]. - For the 20 - year CDB bond, as of May 23, the spread between the 20 - year CDB bond and the 20 - year treasury bond was 2BP, at a historically extremely low level. With the weakening of policy support, the probability of a decline in bond yields is higher, but the variety spread protection is limited [3][13]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Weekly Review 3.1.1 Ultra - long Bond Review - Last week, important events included the release of April economic data (the domestic economy declined significantly compared to March but continued to develop positively), a 500 - billion MLF operation in May with a 10BP cut in LPR after half a year, balanced funds during the tax period, and a relatively high winning bid rate for the new 10 - year treasury bond on Friday, which put slight pressure on the bond market. Overall, the bond market was in a stalemate and under slight pressure, with ultra - long bonds rising first and then falling. The trading activity of ultra - long bonds decreased slightly but remained quite active. The term spread of ultra - long bonds narrowed, and the variety spread showed mixed trends [1][4][11]. 3.1.2 Ultra - long Bond Investment Outlook - **30 - year Treasury Bond**: As of May 23, the spread between the 30 - year and 10 - year treasury bonds was 17BP, at a historically low level. The April economic data showed resilience, with the estimated GDP growth rate of about 4.1% year - on - year, a 0.8% decline from March but still higher than the annual target. The CPI in April was - 0.1% and PPI was - 2.7%, indicating obvious deflation risks. With the recent easing of Sino - US trade frictions, investors' pessimistic expectations have dissipated. The short - term focus will return to the second - quarter domestic economic data. It is expected that with the weakening of policy support, the probability of a decline in bond yields is higher, but the term spread protection is limited [2][12]. - **20 - year CDB Bond**: As of May 23, the spread between the 20 - year CDB bond and the 20 - year treasury bond was 2BP, at a historically extremely low level. Similar to the 30 - year treasury bond situation, with the weakening of policy support, the probability of a decline in bond yields is higher, but the variety spread protection is limited [3][13]. 3.1.3 Ultra - long Bond Basic Overview - The balance of outstanding ultra - long bonds exceeded 21.1 trillion. As of April 30, the total amount of ultra - long bonds with a remaining term of more than 14 years was 21,157.7 billion (excluding asset - backed securities and project revenue notes), accounting for 14.2% of the total bond balance. Local government bonds and treasury bonds are the main varieties. By variety, treasury bonds accounted for 25.6% (5,422.3 billion), local government bonds accounted for 68.2% (14,427.6 billion), etc. By remaining term, the 30 - year variety had the highest proportion [14]. 3.2 Primary Market 3.2.1 Weekly Issuance - Last week (from May 12 to May 16, 2025), a large amount of ultra - long bonds were issued, with a total of 242.4 billion yuan. Compared with the previous week, the total issuance of ultra - long bonds increased significantly. By variety, treasury bonds accounted for 121 billion, local government bonds accounted for 106.4 billion, etc. By term, 15 - year bonds accounted for 22.9 billion, 20 - year bonds accounted for 37.2 billion, 30 - year bonds accounted for 132.2 billion, and 50 - year bonds accounted for 50 billion [19]. 3.2.2 This Week's Pending Issuance - The announced issuance plan for ultra - long bonds this week totals 111.7 billion yuan. By variety, ultra - long treasury bonds account for 0 billion, ultra - long local government bonds account for 104.9 billion, and ultra - long medium - term notes account for 6.9 billion [23]. 3.3 Secondary Market 3.3.1 Trading Volume - Last week, the trading of ultra - long bonds was quite active, with a trading volume of 861.7 billion yuan, accounting for 10.2% of the total bond trading volume. By variety, ultra - long treasury bonds accounted for 31.4% of the total treasury bond trading volume, ultra - long local bonds accounted for 49.6% of the total local bond trading volume, etc. Compared with the previous week, the trading activity of ultra - long bonds decreased slightly, with the trading volume decreasing by 43.8 billion yuan and the proportion decreasing by 0.5%. Among them, the trading volume of ultra - long treasury bonds decreased by 49.8 billion yuan, the trading volume of ultra - long local bonds increased by 3.1 billion yuan, etc. [26]. 3.3.2 Yield - Due to multiple important events last week, the bond market was in a stalemate and under slight pressure, with ultra - long bonds rising first and then falling. For treasury bonds, the yields of 15 - year, 20 - year, 30 - year, and 50 - year bonds changed by 2BP, - 1BP, 1BP, and 3BP to 1.88%, 1.98%, 1.89%, and 2.06% respectively. For CDB bonds, the yields of 15 - year, 20 - year, 30 - year, and 50 - year bonds changed by 0BP, 0BP, 1BP, and 3BP to 1.94%, 2.00%, 2.07%, and 2.30% respectively. For local bonds, the yields of 15 - year, 20 - year, and 30 - year bonds changed by 0BP, 0BP, and - 2BP to 2.08%, 2.12%, and 2.11% respectively. For railway bonds, the yields of 15 - year, 20 - year, and 30 - year bonds changed by - 3BP, - 4BP, and 0BP to 2.00%, 2.04%, and 2.13% respectively. For representative individual bonds, the yield of the 30 - year treasury bond active bond 24 Special Treasury Bond 06 changed by 1BP to 1.95%, and the yield of the 20 - year CDB bond active bond 21 CDB 20 changed by 0BP to 1.98% [33][34]. 3.3.3 Spread Analysis - **Term Spread**: Last week, the term spread of ultra - long bonds narrowed, and the absolute level was low. The spread between the 30 - year and 10 - year treasury bonds was 17BP, a change of - 3BP from the previous week, at the 1% quantile since 2010 [42]. - **Variety Spread**: Last week, the variety spread of ultra - long bonds showed mixed trends, and the absolute level was low. The spread between the 20 - year CDB bond and the treasury bond was 2BP, and the spread between the 20 - year railway bond and the treasury bond was 5BP, changing by 2BP and - 4BP respectively from the previous week, at the 4% and 2% quantiles since 2010 [46]. 3.4 30 - year Treasury Bond Futures - Last week, the main contract of the 30 - year treasury bond futures, TL2509, closed at 119.60 yuan, an increase of 0.32%. The total trading volume was 469,900 lots (a decrease of 182,500 lots), and the open interest was 129,300 lots (an increase of 6,141 lots). The trading volume decreased significantly compared with the previous week, while the open interest increased slightly [48].

【市场表现】 昨日期债延续窄幅震荡。短期看，一方面期债下跌的风险有限，当前仍处在逆周期政策周期中，资金面 持续收紧的可能性小，MLF增量续作也体现了央行对资金面的呵护，LPR与存款利率双调降，中期广谱 利率处于下行周期中；另一方面在关税压力缓释的背景下，当下央行进一步引导资金利率下行的概率也 不高，还需要观察政策后效和出口动向，目前整体或以稳为主，从期限利差的角度来看长债目前吸引力 也相对有限。短期信息空窗期，整体债市或进入震荡阶段，等待基本面指引。目前预计，短期10年期国 债利率可能在1.65%-1.7%区间波动，30年国债利率可能在1.85%-1.95%区间波动。单边策略上建议观望 为主，关注高频经济数据和资金面动态。 免责声明：本报告中的信息均来源于被广发期货有限公司认为可靠的已公开资料，但广发期货对这些信 息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。在任何情况下，报告内容仅供参考，报告中的信息或所表达的意见 并不构成所述品种买卖的出价或询价，投资者据此投资，风险自担。本报告的最终所有权归报告的来源 机构所有，客户在接收到本报告后，应遵循报告来源机构对报告的版权规定，不得刊载或转发。 国债期货收盘涨跌不一，30年期 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Long - term credit bonds adjusted with interest rates, while short - term credit bond spreads significantly compressed. This week, affected by the easing of Sino - US trade tariff policies, market interest rates fluctuated upward. Credit bond trends were differentiated, with long - end yields adjusting with interest rates and medium - short - end yields falling. Credit spreads of various types of credit bonds compressed, with short - term varieties having a larger decline [2][5]. - Urban investment bond spreads declined. Spreads of urban investment bonds generally decreased this week, with different levels of decline for platforms of different external subject ratings and in different regions and administrative levels [2][9]. - Industrial bond spreads generally declined, and the spreads of mixed - ownership real estate bonds significantly compressed. Central and local state - owned real estate bond spreads decreased, mixed - ownership real estate bond spreads dropped significantly, and private real - estate bond spreads slightly increased. Spreads of coal, chemical, and steel bonds also declined [2][19]. - Secondary and perpetual bond spreads were generally stable, and their overall performance was weaker than that of ordinary credit bonds. Most yields of secondary and perpetual bonds followed the interest rate upward, with only some weakly - qualified varieties slightly falling [2][29]. - Industrial perpetual excess spreads were basically flat, and urban investment perpetual excess spreads slightly declined [2][32]. Summary by Directory 1. Long - term credit bonds adjusted with interest rates, short - term credit bond spreads significantly compressed - Market interest rates fluctuated upward. 1Y, 3Y, 5Y, 7Y, and 10Y maturity China Development Bank bond yields increased by 3BP, 3BP, 6BP, 6BP, and 5BP respectively [2][5]. - Credit bond trends were differentiated. 1Y maturity credit bond yields of all grades decreased by 3 - 6BP, 3Y maturity yields decreased by 0 - 2BP, 5Y maturity yields increased by 1 - 2BP, and 7Y and 10Y maturity yields increased by 2 - 3BP [2][5]. - Credit spreads compressed. 1Y maturity credit bond spreads of all grades decreased by 6 - 9BP, 3Y, 5Y, and 7Y maturity spreads decreased by 3 - 5BP, and 10Y maturity spreads decreased by 2BP. Rating spreads and term spreads were differentiated [2][5]. 2. Urban investment bond spreads declined - Spreads of different rating platforms declined. AAA - rated platform credit spreads decreased by 7BP, while AA+ and AA - rated platform spreads decreased by 8BP [2][9]. - Regional spreads showed different declines. In different provinces, spreads of AAA - rated platforms mostly decreased by 6 - 8BP, AA+ - rated platforms mostly decreased by 7 - 9BP, and AA - rated platforms mostly decreased by 6 - 8BP. Different regions had different decline amplitudes [9][11][12]. - Spreads of different administrative levels declined. Provincial, municipal, and district - county - level platform credit spreads decreased by 7BP, 7BP, and 8BP respectively [2][15]. 3. Industrial bond spreads generally declined, mixed - ownership real estate bond spreads significantly compressed - Real estate bond spreads varied. Central and local state - owned real estate bond spreads decreased by 6 - 7BP, mixed - ownership real estate bond spreads decreased by 104BP, and private real - estate bond spreads increased by 4BP. Spreads of some real - estate companies like Longfor and Vanke also changed [2][19]. - Spreads of other industrial bonds declined. Spreads of coal, chemical, and steel bonds decreased, with coal and chemical bonds decreasing by 7BP and steel bonds decreasing by 8BP [2][19]. 4. Secondary and perpetual bond spreads were generally stable, overall performance was weaker than that of ordinary credit bonds - Yields and spreads of different terms and grades changed. 1Y maturity secondary capital bonds and AA+ and above perpetual bonds' yields increased by 2 - 3BP, with spreads decreasing by 0 - 1BP; AA - rated perpetual bond yields decreased by 1BP, with spreads decreasing by 4BP. Similar changes occurred in 3Y and 5Y maturity bonds [2][29]. 5. Industrial perpetual excess spreads were basically flat, urban investment perpetual excess spreads slightly declined - Industrial perpetual excess spreads were stable. The AAA3Y excess spread was 11.71BP, at the 20.54% quantile since 2015, and the AAA5Y excess spread was 9.22BP, at the 9.54% quantile [2][32]. - Urban investment perpetual excess spreads declined slightly. The AAA3Y urban investment perpetual bond excess spread decreased by 0.03BP to 7.25BP, at the 3.45% quantile; the AAA5Y excess spread decreased by 0.89BP to 10.56BP, at the 9.68% quantile [2][32]. 6. Credit Spread Database Compilation Instructions - Market credit spreads and related excess spreads were calculated based on ChinaBond medium - short - term notes and perpetual bonds data, with historical quantiles starting from the beginning of 2015. Credit spreads of urban investment and industrial bonds were compiled and statistically analyzed by the R & D center of Cinda Securities, also with historical quantiles starting from 2015 [38]. - Calculation methods were provided for industrial and urban investment individual bond credit spreads, bank secondary capital bond/perpetual bond excess spreads, and industrial/urban investment perpetual bond excess spreads [38][39]. - Sample selection criteria were given, including selecting medium - term notes and public corporate bonds, excluding guaranteed and perpetual bonds, and removing bonds with remaining maturities below 0.5 years or above 5 years. Different rating types were used for different bond types [40].

双降之后，债市行情从短端开始修复，收益率曲线进入兑现阶段。长端调整幅 度较大，主要受协议签订后整体风险偏好显著修复的影响。从宏观角度看，债 市逻辑变化较大。4 月份外部冲击明显加强导致收益率下行约十个 BP 左右。5 月初降息落地后政策利率调降十个 BP，对长端定价有同等幅度的估值下行。然 而协议达成超预期，中间有三个月缓冲期，这期间可能出现强劲出口变化、国 内需求端边际强化及价格端变化，带来短期宏观趋势逻辑明显变化。 摘要 • 政策利率下调 10BP 后，长端利率面临不确定性，三个月缓冲期内出口、 需求和价格可能出现变化，导致长端利率近期或维持震荡调整，难以找到 明确主线。 • 期限利差压缩至 20BP 以下，表明长端行情变动可能性小，应关注短端修 复。降准及货币政策组合拳使得流动性乐观，资金价格中枢预计移至 1.4- 1.5 附近，或阶段性突破 1.4。 • 大规模结构性货币政策（如再贷款）超预期，央行或迎来中长期流动性投 放高峰，资金价格可能向下偏离政策利率，类似于 2020 年以来的超常规 宽松。 • 存款利率调降对银行流动性有影响，但受结构性货币政策支撑，当前流动 性略偏松。银行投放高峰期，新价格证 ...

Credit Spread Performance - In March, credit bond yields generally declined, with most credit spreads narrowing, particularly in the short to medium-term [1][3] - The 1-year and 3-year credit spreads mostly contracted, while the 5-year spreads showed mixed trends, with AAA-rated spreads generally narrowing and AA+ and AA-rated spreads fluctuating [1][3] - The overall trend for credit spreads across various types of bonds indicates a steepening yield curve, particularly for AA- rated bonds [8] Industry-Specific Credit Spread Analysis Industrial Bonds - In March, AAA-rated industrial bonds saw a general contraction in credit spreads, with the real estate sector experiencing the most significant narrowing of 23.88 basis points [10][11] - Private bonds in the pharmaceutical and biological sector saw spreads widen by 5.01 basis points, while other sectors experienced a contraction [10][11] Local Government Bonds - Credit spreads for local government bonds across major ratings and maturities declined in March, with most provinces showing a narrowing trend [1][3] - Notably, the credit spreads for local government bonds in Liaoning and Inner Mongolia contracted significantly, while lower-rated bonds in provinces like Qinghai and Heilongjiang widened [1][3] Financial Bonds - The credit spreads for bank perpetual bonds contracted overall, although there was a divergence in trends among different types, with secondary capital bonds widening [1][3] - Securities company subordinated bonds and insurance company capital replenishment bonds saw their credit spreads decline across the board [1][3] Historical Context and Current Trends - As of the end of March, credit spreads for various types of bonds remained at historically low levels, particularly for public industrial and local government bonds [8][9] - The historical percentile levels for credit spreads indicate that many financial bonds are above the 30th percentile, suggesting a relatively high risk perception compared to industrial and local government bonds [8][9]

Group 1: Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3238 points, with a daily increase of 0.45% but a decline of 4.19% over the past five days and 3.11% over the past month [1] - The Shenzhen Composite Index closed at 1882 points, with a daily increase of 0.72% but a decline of 9.86% over the past five days and 5.55% over the past month [1] - Large-cap indices showed a daily increase of 0.38%, while mid-cap and small-cap indices increased by 0.84% and 1.15%, respectively, indicating a mixed performance across market segments [1] Group 2: Industry Performance - Non-metallic materials sector saw a daily increase of 6.86%, with a 1-month increase of 5.53% and a 6-month increase of 18.56% [1] - The semiconductor sector increased by 5.03% daily but decreased by 7.88% over the past month, while other electronic sectors saw a daily increase of 4.59% but a 1-month decline of 15% [1] - The agriculture sector, particularly planting, experienced a significant decline of 7.37% daily, with a 1-month increase of 8.93% and a 6-month increase of 18.16% [1] Group 3: Trade and Tariff Analysis - The report discusses misconceptions regarding the impact of tariffs on exports, suggesting that the elasticity of tariff impacts is non-linear and may decrease at higher rates [9][12] - It highlights that trade partners like Canada and Mexico remain crucial trade channels, mitigating the impact of tariffs on U.S. exports [9] - The analysis indicates that the U.S. GDP could suffer a loss of up to 3% due to tariffs, with significant implications for consumer prices and inflation [12] Group 4: Company-Specific Insights - Jinbo Biological's new collagen filling product has received approval, potentially reshaping the industry landscape [17] - The company is expected to leverage its existing distribution channels to promote the new product, which is anticipated to significantly enhance its revenue [21] - The report emphasizes the growth potential in the aesthetic medicine market, with the domestic market size projected at approximately 150 billion yuan [21]

Group 1 - The report highlights that the Shanghai Stock Exchange has tightened the issuance of municipal investment bonds, making it more difficult for weaker quality issuers to finance [2][7][8] - The newly implemented guidelines include increased scrutiny on issuers with high proportions of inventory and receivables, as well as those with low EBITDA relative to interest expenses [12][8] - The special treasury bond injection into four major banks is expected to enhance their core Tier 1 capital adequacy ratios by approximately 1 percentage point, with the Agricultural Bank of China likely to receive additional support due to its lower capital adequacy [9][10] Group 2 - Credit bond yields have generally declined, with notable compressions in credit spreads across various sectors, particularly in the banking sector, which saw a reduction of 8 basis points [3][4][18] - The report indicates that the credit spreads for municipal investment bonds have also compressed, with no overdue non-standard municipal bonds reported in recent weeks [19][22] - The strategy outlook suggests focusing on short-duration opportunities as credit spreads may widen in the future due to lower supply of credit bonds compared to interest rate bonds [6][30]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the report industry investment rating Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - On April 2, Trump announced "reciprocal tariffs", setting a 10% minimum benchmark tariff for trading partners, with higher - tariff economies including China (34%), EU (20%), Vietnam (46%), India (26%), Japan (24%), etc., and also re - emphasized 25% auto tariffs and announced a 25% tariff on all imported beer, which increased capital market volatility [2] - On April 3, in the domestic bond market, the yields of various maturities declined, with the 10Y Treasury bonds 240011 and 250004 down about 5bp, and the decline of ultra - long bonds > long bonds > medium - short bonds [3] - After the "reciprocal tariffs" shock, the bond market is close to the pricing of unchanged short - term interest rate center + historical minimum term spread. The subsequent market decline needs to focus on the influx of risk - averse funds into the bond market and the opening of the broad - money window. The 10 - year Treasury bond is likely to fluctuate in the range of 1.70% - 1.80%. Active bonds are more cost - effective during the bond - replacement period, and some secondary - active bonds may over - adjust due to temporary tightening of funds [6] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Impact of Tariff Announcement - Trump's "reciprocal tariffs" announcement was a major surprise to the market, targeting multiple economies and increasing capital market volatility [2] 2. Bond Market Performance on April 3 - The domestic bond market priced in the tariff impact in the morning, with the yields of 10Y Treasury bonds 240011 and 250004 dropping by about 5bp, and the decline pattern of different - maturity bonds was ultra - long bonds > long bonds > medium - short bonds [3] 3. Three Perspectives on the Subsequent Bond Market 3.1. Tariff's Impact on Fundamental Expectations and Term Spread - Tariffs increase pessimistic expectations about the economic fundamentals. When there are such expectations, term spreads like 10Y - 1Y and 30Y - 10Y usually compress. Given the current short - term interest rate above 1.5% (1.54% on April 2) and the 10Y - 1Y term spread compressed to 25bp, the short - term interest rate is approaching the theoretical lower limit of 1.74% (calculated based on the historical minimum term spread of 20bp) [3] 3.2. Conditions for Further Decline in Short - term Interest Rates - A further decline in short - term interest rates depends on broad - money policies, but the window may not open immediately. The pressure to stabilize the economy has increased, and the expectation of reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts has risen again. However, stabilizing the exchange rate restricts broad - money policies in the short term, the space for broad - money policies is limited compared to 2018, and the probability of broad - money policies in May - June to cooperate with government bond issuance is higher, while the net financing pressure in April is relatively small [4] 3.3. Focus on Institutional Behavior when the 10 - year Treasury Bond Fluctuates between 1.70% - 1.80% - In the current bond - replacement market, 240011 may face upward pressure because the short - selling force of 240011 is still strong (as shown by the increase in bond lending volume after the quarter), and 250004 is about to replace 240011 as the active bond, so its interest rate may rise due to liquidity pricing [5][6] - The secondary - active bonds of 30Y Treasury bonds may also face upward pressure. Although the funds have loosened, the negative Carry phenomenon still exists. During the Q2 when there is a 30Y Treasury bond issuance plan, the secondary - active bonds may over - adjust after the seasonal tightening of funds [6]