Group 1: CPI and Core CPI Insights - In June 2025, the CPI increased by 0.1% year-on-year, better than the market expectation of 0% and the previous value of -0.1%[2] - The core CPI rose by 0.7% year-on-year, up from 0.6% in the previous month, indicating continued improvement in core inflation[2][4] - Food and energy price declines have narrowed, contributing to the positive CPI performance[3][4] Group 2: PPI and Industry Analysis - The PPI fell by 3.6% year-on-year, worse than the market expectation of -3.2% and the previous value of -3.3%[2][9] - PPI has remained at -0.4% month-on-month for four consecutive months, reflecting weakened prices in domestic energy and raw materials[2][9] - The construction industry faced price declines due to high temperatures and abundant supply, with black metal and non-metallic mineral prices dropping by 1.8% and 1.4% respectively[10] Group 3: Policy Implications and Future Outlook - The "anti-involution" policy is deemed necessary to boost PPI and stabilize industry prices, as current low PPI levels are attributed to oversupply and external uncertainties[11][12] - Recent actions in industries like photovoltaic and cement indicate a shift towards price recovery, with some sectors showing signs of improvement[11][12] - Continued implementation of "anti-involution" policies is expected to support consumer price recovery, particularly in housing rentals and service demand[13]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's recent shift in tone indicates a more flexible approach to monetary policy, with a focus on core inflation and employment data rather than solely on labor market weakness [1][3] - The market has recalibrated expectations for interest rate cuts, with futures pricing in two cuts this year, while the ten-year U.S. Treasury yield has decreased by nearly 30 basis points from its peak [3][4] - Financial stocks face a dual challenge: narrowing net interest margins but potentially benefiting from improved credit conditions that could lower default rates [3][4] Group 2 - Growth companies can take advantage of the current interest rate environment to secure long-term financing and reduce capital costs [4] - Manufacturing export firms need to be cautious of fluctuating currency rates due to ongoing tariff negotiations, which could offset the benefits of lower financing costs from potential rate cuts [4] - Companies with strong cash flows and high sensitivity to interest rates are likely to be the primary beneficiaries of a potential rate cut, as they can leverage consumer resilience and manage inventory effectively [4]

Economic Outlook - The Bank of Thailand projects a GDP growth rate of 2.3% for 2025 and 1.7% for 2026 [1] - Core inflation is expected to be 1% in 2025 and 0.9% in 2026 [1]

日本央行审议委员田村直树：尚需更多信息以判断核心通胀是否已达到2%。 ...

金十数据6月25日讯，由于汽油价格下跌和住房成本降温，澳大利亚5月份CPI降幅超过预期，同时核心 通胀触及三年半低点，增强了近期降息的理由。澳大利亚统计局周三公布的数据显示，5月份CPI同比 上涨2.1%，低于4月份的2.4%，也低于2.3%的预期中值。5月份，经修正的核心CPI同比增长2.4%，低于 4月份的2.8%，为2021年末以来的最低水平。不包括波动项目和假日旅行的CPI从2.8%降至2.7%。 澳大利亚5月CPI降幅超过预期 为近期降息提供支持 ...

欧洲央行副行长金多斯：尽管油价波动，核心通胀回落的过程完全没有受到干扰。 ...

Core Insights - The Brazilian Central Bank has indicated that recent data shows core inflation and underlying inflation metrics remain above the inflation target [1] Summary by Category - **Inflation Metrics** - Core inflation and underlying inflation indicators are currently higher than the established inflation target [1]

（加拿大央行）政策能在支持经济的同时侧重于价格稳定性。 许多公司报告称，打算针对（美国总统特朗普挑起的）关税涨价。 发生严峻贸易战的可能性降低，但美国政策存在不可预见性。 加拿大央行会议纪要：如果经济走弱，通胀受抑，可能会降息。 央行在6月份按兵不动，但会上有讨论降息25个基点的可能性。 如果核心通胀顽固，央行降息的难度将加大。 央行同意谨慎行动，让政策的前瞻性低于以往。 不确定核心（通胀率）表现出波动性、还是持续承压。 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - The joint issuance of the "Opinions on Deeply Promoting the Comprehensive Reform Pilot in Shenzhen to Deepen Reform and Innovation and Expand Opening - up" by the General Offices of the CPC Central Committee and the State Council may prompt Hong Kong - listed tech giants to list in A - shares, trigger the rapid inclusion rules of several A - share broad - based indices, and promote index - level market trends while enhancing the "new economy" and "new technology" content of the indices for long - term upward expectations [2] - The China - US trade representatives reached an agreement framework in London, canceling some additional tariffs and reciprocal counter - tariffs, but the impact on the index level was not significant [2] - The US May PPI had a mild increase, core inflation was better than expected, and the labor market cooled, leading the market to resume the expectation of two Fed rate cuts this year [2] - Recent south - bound capital flow has boosted the Hong Kong stock market, while the A - share market has been mainly volatile, with a slight increase in daily average trading volume to about 1.3 trillion yuan per day and a slow return of margin trading, with the margin balance rising above 1.8 trillion yuan this week [2] - The Shanghai Composite Index failed to break through 3400 points and pulled back on Friday, resulting in a negative weekly line. All broad - based indices declined slightly, with the decline ranging from 0.2% to 0.8% for the four scale indices from SSE 50 to CSI 1000, and CSI 1000 having a larger decline [2] - Affected by short - term risk - aversion sentiment and news, the non - ferrous and energy sectors rose significantly [2] - This week, the basis of each variety remained stable. IH switched from premium to a slight discount, and the annualized discounts of IC and IM remained around 10% and 15% respectively, with little change in the term structure. The annualized cost of near - month contracts was low, and near - end hedging could be maintained [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Weekly Forecast Conclusion - The model predicts that the basis of IH, IF, IC, and IM will strengthen next week [4] Weekly Review - The A - share market was mainly volatile this week, with daily average trading volume slightly increasing to about 1.3 trillion yuan per day, and the margin balance rising above 1.8 trillion yuan [2] - The Shanghai Composite Index failed to break through 3400 points and pulled back on Friday, and all broad - based indices declined slightly, with the decline of the four scale indices from SSE 50 to CSI 1000 ranging from 0.2% to 0.8%, and CSI 1000 having a larger decline [2] - The non - ferrous and energy sectors rose significantly due to short - term risk - aversion sentiment and news [2] - This week, the basis of each variety remained stable. IH switched from premium to a slight discount, and the annualized discounts of IC and IM remained around 10% and 15% respectively, with little change in the term structure [2]

Group 1: Inflation Trends - The overall CPI in the US increased by 2.4% year-on-year in May 2025, with a month-on-month increase of 0.1%, which was below market expectations[2] - Core CPI rose by 2.8% year-on-year and 0.1% month-on-month, also falling short of market expectations[2] - Energy inflation continued to decline, with a year-on-year decrease of 3.5% in May, while food prices increased by 2.9% year-on-year[3] Group 2: Core Inflation Insights - Core inflation remained stable, indicating that the impact of tariffs on US inflation may be less than anticipated[3] - The month-on-month growth rate of core CPI was lower than expected, which may alleviate market concerns about inflation[3] - The contribution of core goods to inflation is increasing, with core goods year-on-year growth rising to 0.28% in May[3] Group 3: Tariff Impact - Tariffs are expected to have a gradual impact on inflation, with evidence of businesses passing costs onto consumers[4] - Less than 30% of businesses chose not to pass on tariff costs, with most completing cost transfers within three months[4] - The potential for "stagflation" is currently low, as stable oil and food prices help anchor inflation expectations[5] Group 4: Future Outlook - The Federal Reserve is cautious about interest rate cuts, with the first potential cut expected in Q4 2025, possibly fewer than anticipated[5] - Ongoing monitoring of inflation trends and tariff policies is essential, especially with upcoming FOMC meetings and tax legislation[5]