Core Viewpoint - The Japanese Government Pension Investment Fund (GPIF) reported a significant loss of over 8.8 trillion yen (approximately 611 billion USD) in the first quarter of the year, primarily due to the depreciation of the yen against the dollar and a decline in domestic investments [1][2]. Group 1: Financial Performance - In the first quarter, GPIF experienced a total loss of 8.815 trillion yen, equating to a 3.4% decline [1]. - As of the end of March, GPIF's total assets stood at 249.8 trillion yen, with an annual return rate slightly increasing by 0.7% [1]. - All four major asset categories (Japanese stocks, Japanese bonds, overseas stocks, and overseas bonds) reported losses, marking the first time since Q3 2022 that all categories experienced declines [1]. Group 2: Market Conditions - The losses were attributed to a broader downturn in global stock markets, with the S&P 500 index falling by 4.6%, the MSCI All Country Index declining by 1.7%, and the Tokyo Stock Exchange index dropping by 4.5% [2]. - The bond market also faced challenges, with the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield decreasing by over 30 basis points, while Japanese government bond yields rose by approximately 40 basis points [2]. - The dollar-yen exchange rate fell by about 4.6%, exacerbating the losses in overseas assets when measured in yen [2]. Group 3: Management Response - GPIF President Kazuto Uchida indicated that the poor investment performance in Q1 was primarily due to the significant drop in overseas stocks and mentioned a consideration to increase the proportion of actively managed investments [4].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that overseas asset management institutions and pension funds are accelerating the construction of a firewall against a weakening dollar to mitigate the dual impact of exchange rate fluctuations on U.S. stock portfolios [1] - The traditional logic that "when U.S. stocks fall, the dollar strengthens to provide a buffer" has been challenged, particularly after the dollar index dropped 6.5% to a three-year low due to the Trump administration's global tariff policy [1] - Russell Investments revealed that about 10% of asset portfolios among pension clients in Europe and the UK have increased their hedging ratio for international stock investments, with some aggressive investors raising their risk coverage from 50% to 75% [1] Group 2 - BNP Paribas Asset Management is systematically reducing its dollar exposure by selling dollars through both equity and fixed income portfolios while building long positions in euros, yen, and Australian dollars [2] - Different institutions have varying judgments on dollar valuation; for instance, St. James's Place Capital has maintained its GBP hedging cap while reducing dollar hedging, believing the current dollar exchange rate is close to its long-term fair value [2] - The increase in hedging demand is driven by the widening cracks in asset risk correlation, as noted by Northern Trust's global currency management head [2] Group 3 - Data shows that the euro-hedged version of the MSCI U.S. Index achieved zero returns over the past 12 months, while the unhedged version plummeted by 8.3%, coinciding with a 13% drop in the dollar against the euro [3] - The volume of dollar forward contract sales has reached a four-year high, indicating that investors are opting to "vote with their feet" despite potential dollar rebounds from tariff policy fluctuations or geopolitical conflicts [3] - Asset managers are using foreign exchange derivatives as a core weapon in this currency defense strategy, employing forward contracts and options to build risk barriers against dollar depreciation [3]

Core Viewpoint - The US dollar is expected to remain weak over the next 12 months, with limited potential for a significant recovery [1] Group 1: Economic Outlook - Lombard Odier strategists predict a softening of the dollar due to a slowdown in US economic growth and unexpected growth in other regions by 2026 [1] - Investors are gradually shifting from US assets to European and Japanese assets, contributing to downward pressure on the dollar [1] Group 2: Currency Valuation - The fair value estimate for the euro/USD exchange rate is around 1.15, but a broader range of 1.15-1.20 is suggested due to higher forex volatility and geopolitical uncertainties [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Malaysian Ringgit has reached its highest level in nine months against the US dollar, driven by easing global trade tensions and a general weakness of the dollar [1] Group 1: Currency Performance - The Ringgit appreciated by 0.7% to 4.1805 against the US dollar, marking the highest level since October of the previous year [1] - The recent appreciation of the Ringgit reflects increased confidence in Malaysia's export-dependent economy due to signs of a resolution in the global trade war [1] Group 2: Trade Agreements - There are indications that trade agreements between the US and up to 12 major trading partners are expected to be finalized before the July 9 deadline, contributing to the rise of the Ringgit [1] Group 3: Dollar Weakness - The decline of the US dollar is attributed to expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and concerns over the expanding US fiscal deficit [1]

Group 1 - Gold prices have risen for the second consecutive day, driven by investor optimism regarding potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve later this year [1] - After a 0.9% increase on Monday, gold is trading close to $3,310 per ounce, with traders anticipating at least two rate cuts in the U.S. by 2025 [1] - The upcoming employment report on Thursday may catalyze a decline in U.S. Treasury yields, which typically benefits gold [1] Group 2 - Gold prices have increased approximately 25% this year, nearing $200 below the record high from April [1] - The uncertainty surrounding the economic impact of Trump's tariff agenda and a significant decline in the dollar index, which has dropped nearly 11% in the first half of the year, have contributed to the rise in gold prices [1] - Analyst Vivek Dhar from the Commonwealth Bank of Australia suggests that if the dollar continues to decline, gold is likely to rise in the short term despite recent downturns [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the fluctuation of the RMB exchange rate reflects the interaction between the Chinese economy and the global financial system, with the RMB appreciating due to a combination of factors including economic transformation and the weakening of the USD [1][3] - The RMB to USD exchange rate strengthened significantly, reaching a midpoint of 7.1620 on June 26, 2025, marking a new high since November 2024, while the CFETS RMB exchange rate index fell from 102.09 to 95.92, indicating a complex underlying logic [1][3] - The appreciation of the RMB is occurring against the backdrop of China's high-quality development strategy, with notable achievements in manufacturing upgrades and a significant increase in new energy vehicle exports, which grew over 70% year-on-year in the first four months of 2025 [3][4] Group 2 - The weakening of the USD is driven by the Federal Reserve's initiation of a rate-cutting cycle, with market expectations for further rate cuts exceeding 80% as of June 2025 [3] - The acceleration of the global "de-dollarization" process is evident, with BRICS countries increasing the use of local currencies in trade, and central banks globally, including China, significantly increasing gold reserves [3][4] - China's economic fundamentals are robust, with GDP growth exceeding expectations and a notable recovery in consumer markets, as evidenced by 274 million domestic tourist trips during the May Day holiday, generating 148.056 billion yuan in revenue, a year-on-year increase of 12.8% [4]

今日Ultima Markets为您带来了 2025年 6 月26日的黄金深入分析。 ·周四早盘金价在关键的3,225美元支撑位上方盘整之前的反弹。 ·美元在总统特朗普再次攻击美联储的信誉后，创下三年来的新低。 ·金价在21日均线和50日均线之间徘徊，日线相对强弱指数中性。 ·所有目光现在都集中在周四的中期美国数据和周五的美国PCE通胀数据上。 周四早盘，金价在周低点反弹的基础上挣扎，尽管美元（USD）在其主要货币对手面前徘徊在三年低点。 金价在鹰派美联储预期和美元疲软之间显得分裂 由于美国总统特朗普对美联储（Fed）信誉的最新攻击，美元延续了四天的下跌趋势。 《华尔街日报》（WSJ）早些时候报导，特朗普总统正在考虑在9月或10月选择并宣布美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔的继任者。 市场密切关注美联储主席职位的潜在候选人名单，包括美联储理事凯文·沃什、国家经济委员会主任凯文·哈塞特、前世界银行行长大卫·马尔帕斯和美联储 理事克里斯托弗·沃勒，以评估潜在的政策倾向。 尽管美元持续疲软，金价仍然难以延续反弹，因为伊朗与以色列的停火为市场提供了一些喘息空间。 此外，金价继续面临来自鲍威尔在为期两天的国会听证会上对7月美联储 ...

美联储负责监管的副主席鲍曼成为本轮鸽派转向的最新声音。她表示，美联储"很快"就应考虑降息，因 为她担心劳动力市场已显疲态，而近期关税对通胀的影响可能被夸大。这番表态，被市场解读为美联储 高层对就业风险的认知出现新拐点。 Vatee外汇提醒，在美联储鸽派基调逐步形成的同时，投资者也需警惕政策预期一旦"兑现"后的反向波 动。同时，若伊朗局势再起变化、美债收益率发生突变，美元也可能短线出现剧烈反复。总体而言，随 着数据疲软与政策转向预期交织，美元多头面临越来越复杂的博弈环境。 而就在上周五，美联储理事沃勒已率先释放类似信号，指出"7月会议降息值得考虑"。他一向被视为偏 鹰的委员，转向态度引发市场迅速定价：联邦基金利率期货目前预期今年将降息约58个基点，相比沃勒 发言前的46个基点，升幅显著，等于市场基本认定7月和11月各有一次降息，甚至为第三次降息预留空 间。芝加哥联储主席古尔斯比也在发言中表示，特朗普政府重启的加征关税目前对经济影响"低于预 期"，为决策者在夏季降息扫清障碍。 6月24日（周一），美元指数回落至98.45，跌幅达0.32%，一举回吐上周美联储"鹰派按兵不动"决议后 的涨幅。此番调整的直接导火索，是 ...

Group 1: Emerging Market Bond Investment Outlook - The trend of a weakening US dollar is expected to positively impact emerging market local currency bonds, leading to a favorable outlook for these investments [1][3] - There is a shift in global investment from US dollar assets to emerging market assets, driven by the declining appeal of US Treasury bonds and the volatility in long-term bonds across the US, Japan, and Europe [1][3] - Emerging market bonds are seen as attractive due to the potential for positive returns as the dollar depreciates against local currencies [3][4] Group 2: Impact of Tariff Policies - The influence of US tariff policies on emerging market bonds is considered limited, with most Asian corporate bonds being less exposed to large-scale exports to the US [4][5] - Market sentiment may cause temporary fluctuations in Asian corporate bonds, but the long-term impact of tariffs is not as significant as initially perceived [5] Group 3: Attractive Emerging Market Economies - Latin American, Southeast Asian, and Indian bonds are highlighted as promising investment categories within emerging markets [6][7] - Latin American bonds are particularly attractive due to high credit spreads and favorable economic growth prospects, with expectations of monetary easing in the region [6] - Indian bonds are gaining attention due to their inclusion in global bond indices and strong GDP growth, despite geopolitical risks [7] Group 4: Southeast Asia Bond Market - Southeast Asian local currency and dollar-denominated bonds are viewed positively, supported by strong domestic consumption and manageable inflation [8] - Companies in sectors such as real estate, consumer goods, and renewable energy in Southeast Asia are identified as having solid fundamentals and low export dependency, making their bonds attractive [8] Group 5: China Bond Market Perspective - China's bond market is regarded positively despite lower yields, with expectations of continued low inflation and monetary easing [9][10] - Chinese local currency bonds are characterized by low volatility and stability, making them appealing as a long-term investment option [10] - The demand for Chinese dollar-denominated bonds is expected to rise as global investors seek to diversify their portfolios, particularly in light of the lower volatility compared to other emerging market bonds [11]

Core Viewpoint - The recent volatility in the precious metals market, particularly gold, is influenced by multiple factors including a weakening dollar, changing risk sentiment, and developments in US-China trade negotiations [1] Group 1: Dollar Weakness and Gold Prices - The weakening of the dollar index has created favorable conditions for a rebound in gold prices, making gold cheaper for holders of other currencies [3] - Uncertainty surrounding the Federal Reserve's monetary policy has further exacerbated the dollar's weakness, leading investors to reassess the value of dollar-denominated assets and shift some funds towards traditional safe-haven assets like gold [3] - Concerns about global economic growth, driven by trade tensions and geopolitical issues, have put additional pressure on the dollar, supporting the rise in gold prices [3] Group 2: Risk Sentiment and Gold Demand - The escalation of geopolitical risks has increased demand for safe-haven assets, with gold being favored in the current environment due to ongoing conflicts such as the Ukraine-Russia situation [4] - Developments in US-China trade relations significantly impact risk sentiment; easing tensions can lead to a shift towards riskier assets, while heightened trade friction tends to boost gold prices due to increased safe-haven demand [4] - Central banks around the world are increasing their gold reserves, reflecting a structural change in demand for safe-haven assets, which provides a stable foundation for the gold market and supports long-term price stability [4]