Core Viewpoint - Recent weak U.S. economic data has strengthened expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut, supporting a rise in gold prices, which reached a half-month high [1][2] Group 1: Economic Data Impact - The U.S. economic data showed signs of weakness, including a reduction in job openings and a significant drop in consumer confidence, indicating the impact of tariffs on the U.S. economy [2] - The probability of a rate cut in December has increased to 64%, enhancing the attractiveness of holding gold [2] Group 2: Gold Price Movements - Gold prices have been fluctuating within the range of $4100 to $4150, with support levels at $4100 and $4080, and resistance at $4150 and $4200 [1][4] - After a significant rise on Monday, gold has maintained a range-bound adjustment for two consecutive days, with recent trading around $4123 [1][4] Group 3: Technical Analysis - The daily chart indicates that gold has stabilized and is showing a relatively strong short-term performance, with key support levels at $4100 and $4075, and resistance near $4150 [4] - The 5-day moving average is forming a golden cross, while the MACD indicator shows a dead cross turning upwards, suggesting a potential for rebound despite facing upward pressure [4]

中美日前达成了"休战一年的贸易协议"，中方之所以与美方达成协议完全是为了两国百姓，但特朗普可不这么认为。 据外媒报道，特朗普在接受采访时骄傲的认为：中国之所以休战，是因为美国太强大，究竟是谁给特朗普的自信，他这番言论背后又有什么目的？ 特朗普那套"我赢了"的话术，听起来更像是一种心虚的呐喊。因为就在这份协议达成之前，他的后院早已火光冲天。 美国联邦政府刚刚经历了有史以来最长的一次停摆，超过四十天的瘫痪状态，让无数公共服务陷入停滞。这种混乱直接戳破了"让美国再次伟大"的美好愿 景，民众的支持率也随之下滑。 经济上的麻烦更是接踵而至。他引以为傲的关税政策，最终变成了普通家庭账单上不断上涨的数字，消费成本一路飙升。而那些依赖全球供应链的企业，更 是怨声载道，日子过得一天比一天艰难。 更要命的是，他的关税大权甚至在最高法院都面临着合法性的严峻审查。一旦被裁定违宪，政府可能需要退还天文数字般的税款，这将是政治和财政上的双 重灾难。 内外交困之下，急需一个能转移矛盾的"外交突破口"。于是，中美间的这次休战，就被他巧妙地包装成了一场"伟大的外交胜利"。"不是我搞砸了，而是中 国怕我了"，这个故事完美地掩盖了国内的烂摊子。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent fluctuations in gold prices, highlighting that spot gold briefly fell below the $4100 per ounce mark after three consecutive days of gains, reaching a high for the month [2]. Price Movements - As of the report, London gold was priced at $4103.91 per ounce, reflecting a decline of 0.55%, while COMEX gold was at $4111.7 per ounce, down by 0.11% [2][4]. - The highest price for London gold was recorded at $4145.55, while the lowest was $4098.41 [3]. Market Sentiment - Analysts noted a decrease in safe-haven demand as optimism grew regarding the potential end of the U.S. government shutdown, prompting some investors to take profits [4][5]. - The U.S. Senate passed a temporary funding bill, which is expected to be voted on by the House, potentially ending the longest government shutdown in U.S. history [5]. Future Outlook - FXStreet's chief analyst indicated that while gold has lost upward momentum, the risk for gold prices remains skewed to the upside [6]. - Market liquidity expectations have improved, and with weak ADP employment data, the U.S. dollar continues to weaken, which may support gold prices [6]. - Despite the long-term bullish logic for gold prices, there is currently a lack of clear upward drivers, leading to expectations of range-bound trading for the week [6].

PTA 日报 行业 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03134307 日期 2025 年 11 月 12 日 油） 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 硅）028-8663 0631 一、 行情回顾与操作建议 | 表1：期货行情 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合约 | 收盘价（元/吨） | 涨跌 | 总量 | 增减 | | TA2601 | 4648 | -24 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The US dollar index has strengthened recently, suppressing the performance of risk assets, but domestic stock indices are resilient and continue to reduce volatility while waiting for stabilization [3]. - The 10 - year Treasury bond active bond 250016.IB may fluctuate between 1.75% - 1.82%, and with the restart of central bank Treasury bond trading and a loose monetary policy orientation, the top of interest rates and the bottom of Treasury bond futures are more solid [3]. - The buying power of gold and silver has increased, and their price centers are expected to continue to rise [3]. - Various commodities have different trends, and corresponding investment strategies are proposed for each commodity, such as buying on dips, holding long - positions, or conducting arbitrage operations [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Financial - **Stock Index Futures**: A - shares are in a re - pricing adjustment after the release of the third - quarter reports, with narrow - range callbacks and rebounds in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see mainly. In case of a deep one - day decline, a bullish put - option spread can be arranged [3]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The 10 - year Treasury bond active bond 250016.IB may fluctuate in the range of 1.75% - 1.82%. It is recommended to go long on dips in the unilateral strategy and pay attention to the positive arbitrage strategy due to the rising IRR [3]. - **Precious Metals**: The buying power of gold and silver has increased. Gold resistance is around $4190 (956 yuan), and it can be bought on dips below $4100 (936 yuan). Silver may rise to $52 (12000 yuan), and long - call options can be held [3]. - **Container Shipping Index (European Line)**: The main contract is in a short - term shock, and it is recommended to buy on dips for the December contract [3]. Black - **Steel**: It is recommended to hold the arbitrage of going long on coking coal and short on hot - rolled coils, and take a wait - and - see attitude for single - side operations [3]. - **Iron Ore**: It is recommended to take a wait - and - see attitude for single - side operations, with a reference range of 750 - 800, and an arbitrage of going long on coking coal and short on iron ore is recommended [3]. - **Coking Coal**: It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 1170 - 1290, and a 1 - 5 positive arbitrage is recommended [3]. - **Coke**: It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 1650 - 1780, and a 1 - 5 positive arbitrage is recommended [3]. Non - ferrous - **Copper**: The end of the US government shutdown may drive the copper price to rebound, with the main contract reference range of 85500 - 87500 [3]. - **Other Non - ferrous Metals**: Each metal has its own price range and corresponding investment suggestions, such as holding long - positions for tin, and taking a wait - and - see or other strategies for others [3]. New Energy - **Polysilicon**: The price is expected to fluctuate in the range of 50000 - 58000 due to decreased demand and falling silicon wafer prices [3]. - **Lithium Hydroxide**: The price is in a moderate - amplitude shock adjustment, and attention should be paid to the performance at the previous high [3]. Energy and Chemical - **PX, PTA, etc.**: Each chemical product has its own price range and investment strategies, such as taking a wait - and - see attitude, reducing long - positions, or conducting arbitrage operations [3]. Agricultural Products - **Soybeans, Hogs, etc.**: Different agricultural products have different price trends and investment suggestions, such as holding a 3 - 7 reverse arbitrage for hogs and paying attention to support or pressure levels for others [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The report provides market performance, fundamentals, and trading strategies for various commodity futures, including precious metals, base metals, black industries, agricultural products, and energy chemicals. The overall market situation is complex, with different commodities showing different trends and risks [2][3][4]. 3. Summary by Categories Precious Metals - **Gold**: Overnight prices rose slightly, with London gold at $4,125.67/oz. ADP data showed a decline in US private - sector jobs, and there were various inventory changes. Suggest buying at the lower support [2]. - **Silver**: Suggest reducing long positions [2]. Base Metals - **Copper**: Prices were oscillating strongly. The market priced in the US government reopening, and weak ADP data boosted the Fed's rate - cut expectation. Supply was tight, and short - term demand was weak. Treat it with an oscillating mindset in the short term [3]. - **Aluminum**: The main contract price decreased by 0.30%. Supply increased slightly, and demand decreased. In the traditional consumption off - season, prices are expected to oscillate strongly due to overseas supply concerns [3]. - **Alumina**: The main contract price decreased by 0.46%. Supply was stable, and demand was high. The market is in an oversupply situation, and the rebound space is limited [3]. - **Zinc**: The main contract price decreased by 0.11%. Supply was tight domestically but increased overseas. Consumption was in the off - season. Suggest selling short at high prices [4]. - **Lead**: The main contract price decreased by 0.06%. Supply was stable, and demand improved slightly. Suggest interval operation [4]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The main contract price decreased by 1.18%. Supply was supported by polysilicon, and demand was stable. The price is expected to oscillate between 8,600 - 9,400 yuan/ton, and consider buying at low prices [4]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The main contract price decreased by 0.8%. Supply increased slightly, and demand increased significantly. It is expected to go into de - stocking in November. Suggest buying at low prices cautiously and consider selling put options [4]. - **Polycrystalline Silicon**: The main contract price decreased by 3.33%. Supply decreased, and demand was weak. The November storage platform progress is uncertain. Suggest waiting and seeing [5]. - **Tin**: Prices were oscillating strongly. The market priced in the US government reopening, and ADP data boosted the Fed's rate - cut expectation. Supply decreased, and demand was stable. Treat it with an oscillating mindset in the short term [5]. Black Industry - **Rebar**: The main contract price increased by 2 yuan/ton. Inventory decreased, and demand improved marginally. Supply decreased significantly. Suggest waiting and seeing, with a reference range of 2,990 - 3,040 yuan/ton [6]. - **Iron Ore**: The main contract price increased by 10 yuan/ton. Supply decreased, and demand was stable. Suggest waiting and seeing, with a reference range of 740 - 770 yuan/ton [6]. - **Coking Coal**: The main contract price decreased by 37.5 yuan/ton. Supply was stable, and demand was weak. Suggest waiting and seeing, with a reference range of 1,230 - 1,280 yuan/ton [7]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal**: CBOT soybeans fell slightly. Supply was stable, and demand improved. The global inventory is expected to remain high. US soybeans are strong, and domestic ones are relatively strong. Short - term focus on the USDA report, and medium - term depends on tariff policies and production [7]. - **Corn**: Futures prices continued to rise. Inventory was low, and demand was strong. New production is expected to increase, and costs will decrease. Short - term prices are expected to oscillate strongly. Suggest waiting and seeing [7]. - **Sugar**: The 01 contract price decreased by 0.04%. Globally, supply is expected to be in surplus, and domestically, the market rebounded due to news. Suggest shorting in the futures market and selling call options [7]. - **Cotton**: US cotton prices fell, and domestic prices oscillated downwards. Supply increased, and demand was stable. Suggest waiting and seeing, with an interval strategy of 13,400 - 13,700 yuan/ton [7]. - **Palm Oil**: The Malaysian market rebounded slightly. Supply increased, and demand increased. Near - term inventory is accumulating, and long - term production is expected to decrease seasonally. Suggest a reverse spread strategy and focus on production and policies [8]. - **Eggs**: Futures prices were weak in the near - term and strong in the long - term. Supply decreased, and demand increased seasonally. After Double Eleven, prices are expected to oscillate in an interval [8]. - **Hogs**: Futures prices oscillated narrowly. Supply was abundant, and demand was expected to increase seasonally. Prices are expected to oscillate at a low level [8]. - **Apples**: The main contract price increased by 0.76%. Supply was affected by quality and timing, and demand was optimistic. Suggest waiting and seeing [8]. Energy Chemicals - **LLDPE**: Prices oscillated slightly. Supply pressure increased but at a slower pace, and demand decreased. In the short term, prices are expected to oscillate weakly, and in the long term, suggest shorting at high prices or reverse - spreading [9]. - **PTA**: PX supply was high, and PTA supply pressure was large. PX was in balance, and PTA was slightly de - stocking. Suggest taking profit on long positions and shorting processing fees in the long term [10]. - **Rubber**: The main contract price increased by 0.33%. Raw material prices were stable, and inventory increased. Suggest an oscillating operation [10]. - **PP**: Prices oscillated slightly. Supply increased, and demand decreased. In the short term, prices are expected to oscillate weakly, and in the long term, suggest shorting at high prices or reverse - spreading [10]. - **MEG**: Supply pressure was large, and inventory was at a medium - low level. Demand entered the off - season. Suggest shorting at high prices [10]. - **Crude Oil**: Prices rose. Supply faced risks from Russian oil and OPEC+ production, and demand was seasonally weak. Prices are expected to oscillate in the short term, and short at high prices if Russian oil reduction is less than 500,000 barrels/day [11]. - **Styrene**: Prices fell slightly. Supply and demand contradictions were large. In the short term, prices are expected to oscillate weakly, and in the long term, suggest shorting at high prices or reverse - spreading [11].

Core Points - The U.S. Senate has passed a temporary budget bill to end the federal government shutdown that has lasted over 40 days, marking the longest shutdown in U.S. history [1][3] - The shutdown has caused significant disruptions across various sectors, particularly affecting low-income families and federal employees [4][5] Group 1: Economic Impact - Millions of low-income families have had their food assistance benefits cut, and over 670,000 federal workers have been furloughed, with approximately 730,000 forced to work without pay [4] - The aviation industry has been severely impacted due to a shortage of air traffic controllers, leading to widespread flight cancellations and delays, which in turn affects commercial and tourism sectors [5] - The Congressional Budget Office has projected that the prolonged shutdown could reduce the annual GDP growth rate by 1 to 2 percentage points by Q4 2025 [5] Group 2: Consumer Confidence - The University of Michigan's monthly survey indicates that the U.S. consumer confidence index has dropped to 50.3, the lowest level since June 2022, with 62% of respondents reducing discretionary spending due to the shutdown [6] Group 3: Political Stalemate - The shutdown stems from a political deadlock between the two parties over subsidies related to the Affordable Care Act, with Democrats advocating for an extension and Republicans opposing it [7] - Attempts by moderate lawmakers to seek compromise solutions have been hindered by a lack of trust, making any short-term agreements uncertain [7] - Historical context shows that since 1976, the U.S. has experienced 20 funding gaps leading to 10 formal shutdowns, with the nature and frequency of these events evolving over time [9][10][11]

Group 1 - The dollar index (DXY) has slightly risen to around 99.55 during the Asian trading session, primarily driven by the easing of U.S. government shutdown risks [2] - Market sentiment has improved as investors anticipate the passage of government funding legislation, leading to a decrease in risk aversion and a mild recovery in the dollar against major currencies [2] - The fluctuations in the dollar index are influenced by multiple factors, including U.S. macroeconomic data, fiscal policy developments, and Federal Reserve monetary policy expectations [2] Group 2 - Recent economic data has shown weakness, putting pressure on growth momentum, with U.S. consumer confidence dropping to a three-and-a-half-year low in early November [3] - The labor market is also showing signs of cooling, with private sector employment decreasing by an average of approximately 11,000 jobs per week over the four weeks ending October 25, indicating declining confidence in hiring [3] - Market focus is on upcoming speeches from Federal Reserve officials, which may provide signals regarding future interest rate directions, influencing the dollar's short-term volatility [3] Group 3 - Some forex strategists suggest that the easing of government shutdown risks is more of a short-term sentiment driver, while the medium-term outlook for the dollar will depend on actual economic data performance [4] - Key indicators such as inflation pressure, employment changes, and manufacturing activity will be crucial for assessing the Federal Reserve's future policy [4] - International factors, including the relatively loose monetary policies in the Eurozone and Japan, provide some support for the dollar, but a continued slowdown in U.S. economic growth could diminish the attractiveness of U.S. Treasury yields, weakening the dollar's interest rate advantage [4]

Core Viewpoint - The precious metals market is currently experiencing volatility and may continue to consolidate due to a lack of strong driving forces, with gold prices facing resistance at $4150 per ounce [1]. Group 1: Market Analysis - Guotou Futures indicates that the recent ADP report shows a significant decline in U.S. employment, which has raised expectations for further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1]. - Everbright Futures notes that the gold-silver ratio has decreased to around 80.7, and the weak employment data has bolstered the Fed's rate cut expectations, leading to fluctuations in gold prices [2]. - Zhongliang Futures states that gold has broken previous highs and is in a phase of seeking subsequent peaks, with expectations that gold prices could reach $4500 to $4800 per ounce by Q1 2026 [3]. Group 2: Future Projections - Commerzbank analysts predict that the reopening of the U.S. government will lead to the release of economic data indicating a slowdown, which may prompt the Fed to implement more aggressive rate cuts, supporting gold prices until 2026 [3]. - FXStreet highlights that the weak employment data has reignited speculation about further Fed policy easing, providing support for gold prices, although the reopening of the government may exert pressure on gold [4].

燃料油： 1、基本面：新加坡交易员表示，高硫燃料油下游需求一直保持稳定，但近期新加坡市场接收了来自中东的增量 供应，导致市场供应过于充裕，高硫燃料油下游溢价开始承压；中性 2、基差：新加坡高硫燃料油361.65美元/吨，基差为-10元/吨，新加坡低硫燃料油为448.52美元/吨，基差为18 元/吨，现货偏平水期货；中性 3、库存：新加坡燃料油11月5日当周库存为2106.9万桶，增加14万桶；中性 4、盘面：价格在20日线附近，20日线偏平；中性 5、主力持仓：高硫主力持仓空单，空增，偏空；低硫主力持仓多单，多增，偏多 6、预期：美国政府停摆有望结束带动市场风险偏好回升，盖过供应过剩担忧，国际油价收盘续涨，俄罗斯能源 出口担忧预期开始逐步提升，后续部分对燃油有一定支撑。FU2601：2690-2730区间运行，LU2601：3300-3340 区间运行 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 2025-11-12燃料油早报 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其 ...