Group 1 - The article discusses the sudden shift in attitudes from the EU and Japan towards the US, particularly in the context of trade agreements and investment commitments made by President Trump [3][4][6]. - Japan initially promised to invest $550 billion in the US, primarily for chip development and energy procurement, but later clarified that this amount was merely a potential interest from private companies, not a government commitment [6]. - The EU also made a similar promise of $600 billion for energy purchases, which was later retracted, indicating that the funding would depend on private sector decisions rather than government funding [6][15]. Group 2 - The article highlights Trump's reliance on verbal commitments from allies, which have proven to be unreliable, leading to a perception of him being manipulated by foreign leaders [6][16]. - The US economy is facing significant challenges, including rising inflation, declining consumer spending, and a soaring national debt of $36 trillion, with daily interest payments of $2.5 billion [15][16]. - The article suggests that Trump's policies, including tariffs and tax cuts, have not yielded the intended economic benefits and have instead exacerbated the country's financial issues, leading to a loss of trust in US economic data and governance [12][15][16].

消息面上，8月7日，国际金价显著拉升，截至发稿，现货黄金报3386美元/盎司，日内涨0.5%。天风证 券研报指出，本轮黄金上行的主要驱动力是美国经济从有韧性转向衰退。更关键的是对5、6月数据的下 修，体现出美国恶化的经济底色。展望后市，更多利好等待催化，美联储独立性受挑战，特朗普继续反 复向鲍威尔职务施压。花旗近日则调整对黄金的看跌预测，分析师现预计由于美国经济恶化及关税可能 推高通胀，金价短线有望升至纪录高位。 黄金股再度活跃，截至发稿，中国黄金国际(02099)涨6.55%，报75.65港元；赤峰黄金(06693)涨5.76%， 报25.46港元；潼关黄金(00340)涨3.68%，报1.97港元；灵宝黄金(03330)涨2.52%，报10.97港元。 ...

智通财经APP获悉， 黄金股再度活跃，截至发稿，中国黄金国际(02099)涨6.55%，报75.65港元；赤峰 黄金(06693)涨5.76%，报25.46港元；潼关黄金(00340)涨3.68%，报1.97港元；灵宝黄金(03330)涨 2.52%，报10.97港元。 消息面上，8月7日，国际金价显著拉升，截至发稿，现货黄金报3386美元/盎司，日内涨0.5%。天风证 券研报指出，本轮黄金上行的主要驱动力是美国经济从有韧性转向衰退。更关键的是对5、6月数据的下 修，体现出美国恶化的经济底色。展望后市，更多利好等待催化，美联储独立性受挑战，特朗普继续反 复向鲍威尔职务施压。花旗近日则调整对黄金的看跌预测，分析师现预计由于美国经济恶化及关税可能 推高通胀，金价短线有望升至纪录高位。 ...

对美国经济衰退风险充耳不闻，本轮全球股市牛还能坚持多久？ 高盛宏观交易员Paolo Schiavone表示，尽管美国经济衰退概率高达30%，但全球股市仍保持强劲走势，因为在当前市场动能面前"做空几乎显得不 合常理"。 Schiavone在给客户的最新报告中指出："关键在于市场无法看到足够远的未来，这就是为什么它会忽视经济衰退风险。"他认为，投资者可能会忽 略劳动力市场放缓的可能性，转而专注于强劲的流动性以及人工智能和财政信贷扩张等结构性增长主题。 这位高盛交易员表示，由于短期策略盛行且波动性受到抑制，很少有人愿意与仍然完整的上升趋势作对。他指出，市场正显现出短视的迹象，因 为趋势跟踪投资者"单一的操作手册('让赢家继续跑')为基本面看空者留下的空间很小"。 在这种环境下，Schiavone认为阻力最小的路径仍然是向上，这解释了为什么市场能够在经济衰退风险升高的背景下保持强势。 流动性充裕推动市场乐观情绪 掉期交易员目前预期美联储到2026年中期将降息超过100个基点。大量短期国债发行向货币市场注入流动性，使得资金供应充足。与此同时，快钱 投资者在标普500指数从4月关税驱动的抛售中反弹后大举入市。 Schia ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is signaling a potential interest rate cut due to a weakening labor market and persistent inflation pressures, leading to a consensus in the market for a rate reduction [1][2][3]. Group 1: Economic Indicators - The core PCE inflation rate in June was 2.8%, indicating persistent inflation challenges [1]. - The July non-farm payroll report showed only 73,000 new jobs, significantly below the expected 110,000, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.2% [4]. - Revisions to previous months' job data revealed a total downward adjustment of 258,000 jobs, raising concerns about the labor market's health [4][5]. Group 2: Federal Reserve's Stance - Federal Reserve officials, including Bowman and Waller, have publicly supported a more proactive approach to rate cuts, citing the need to address a weakening job market [2][6]. - The probability of a rate cut in September has surged from 37% to over 75%, with some institutions predicting a cut of up to 50 basis points if unemployment rises [2][6]. Group 3: Market Reactions - The market has shifted from a wait-and-see approach to betting on rate cuts, with a consensus forming around the likelihood of a reduction [3][6]. - Major financial institutions like Goldman Sachs and Citigroup anticipate multiple rate cuts, potentially lowering the federal funds rate to a range of 3% to 3.25% [6]. Group 4: Implications for Domestic Markets - A potential rate cut by the Federal Reserve could provide some monetary policy flexibility for domestic markets, particularly in China, where the current interest rate differential with the U.S. is significant [8][10]. - The anticipated easing of U.S. monetary policy may enhance liquidity in global markets, potentially benefiting domestic capital markets [8][10].

格隆汇8月6日｜高盛的一位宏观交易员表示，30%的美国经济衰退概率可能听起来像是一个警示信号， 但全球股市仍保持坚挺，因为在当前的市场动能面前，"做空几乎显得不合常理"。"关键在于市场无法 看到足够远的未来。这就是为什么它会忽视经济衰退风险，"Paolo Schiavone在报告中写道。他指出， 投资者可能忽视劳动力市场放缓的可能性，转而关注强劲的流动性以及人工智能和财政信贷扩张等结构 性增长主题。 ...

（央视财经《正点财经》）美国劳工部8月1日公布的就业数据显示，美国7月非农部门新增就业人数远低于市场预期。此 外，美国劳工部还大幅下调修正5月和6月的就业数据。对此，国际评级机构穆迪公司首席经济学家马克·赞迪在社交媒体上 发文警告称，近期各项指标均显示美国经济正处于"衰退边缘"。 另据报道，多家国际大型金融机构4日发布警告称，随着美股上市企业估值高企遭遇美国经济数据不断恶化，投资者应为美 股股价下跌做准备。 德意志银行分析师团队表示，美股短期内面临下跌风险。摩根士丹利分析师迈克·威尔逊称，随着美国关税政策落地并冲击 消费者钱包和企业资产负债表，标普500指数本季度修正幅度最高可达10%。埃弗科国际战略和投资集团分析师朱利安·伊曼 纽尔则预期，标普500指数可能下跌15%。 转载请注明央视财经 编辑：潘煦 赞迪表示，美国劳动力市场正在走弱，建筑业和制造业萎缩。当前任何认为经济数据歪曲了经济实际表现的观点都是大错 特错。当经济处于拐点时，经济数据总是会经历大幅修正。 赞迪批评称，美国的经济困境与美国政府不断加码的关税政策和高度限制性的移民政策直接相关。关税正日益侵蚀美国企 业的利润和美国家庭的购买力，移民劳动力减 ...

在高盛对历史性的美国就业数据修正发出警告后，有"华尔街神算子"之称的金融市场研究机构Fundstrat 联合创始人兼研究主管Tom Lee表示，美联储政策即将转向。 Tom Lee表示："美联储有双重使命：就业和通胀。高盛指出，这些就业数据修正幅度如此之大是57年 来从未见过的。这强化了劳动力市场偏离美联储使命的程度，且比美联储意识到的要严重。"他补充 称："对我来说，美联储政策转向即将到来，这将支持更高市盈率。"他这番言论暗示，随着较低的利率 降低贴现率并增加投资者对风险资产的兴趣，股票估值可能会上升。 市场的降息预期在上周五美国7月非农就业数据公布后已迅速升温。数据显示，美国7月非农就业新增人 数仅为7.3万人，远不及市场预期，且5、6月的非农就业新增人数均被大幅下修。这份最新的就业数据 释放出了美国经济疲弱的信号。市场目前已经完全消化了美联储12月底前降息两次的预期。 前美国财政部长萨默斯警告称，美国经济"比我们想象的更接近停滞"，并提到了经济衰退的可能性。密 歇根大学经济学家Betsey Stevenson则将美国劳动力市场的疲软与当前影响教育、政府、建筑和酒店业 的行政政策联系起来。 高盛经济学家强 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The downward revision of non - farm data from May to June may accelerate the Fed's interest - rate cut rhythm. As of now, the probability of a "compensatory" rate cut by the Fed in September is limited, and the focus is on trading rate cuts rather than recession. The non - farm data may impact the data - based investment research and analysis system, and the value of gold may be further highlighted [1]. - The Fed's action may be too late. After the release of non - farm data, the market's expectation of a 25BP rate cut by the Fed in September soared from 37.66% to 80.31%, and it fully priced in at least one 25BP rate cut by the Fed before October [2]. - Based on current data, it may not be sufficient to drive the Fed to conduct a "compensatory" rate cut. If the labor market deteriorates further in August and inflation rebounds moderately or declines again, the Fed may make a more accommodative monetary policy decision [3]. - The data - based investment research and analysis system will be continuously impacted. In the short term, ADP employment data may serve as a substitute for non - farm data. In the long term, the issue of data credibility may ferment, affecting the pricing of financial assets, while the value of gold may be further emphasized [4]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Analyzing the Underlying Logic of the Significant Downward Revision of Non - farm Data - **July Non - farm Data**: In July, the US added 73,000 non - farm jobs, lower than market expectations. The unemployment rate rose to 4.2%, indicating a marginal cooling of the labor market but still with some resilience [11]. - **Downward Revision of May - June Non - farm Data**: The total non - farm employment in May and June was revised down by 258,000. The adjustment rates in May and June reached 86.33% and 90.48% respectively, the largest since 2021. Both the private and government sectors showed a general decline [14][15]. - **Impact on the Fed's Decision - making**: From May to July, the average monthly increase in non - farm employment was only about 35,000. If the Fed had seen the revised data before the meeting, more officials might have supported a rate cut in July. After the data release, the market's expectation of a Fed rate cut increased significantly [21]. - **"Compensatory" Rate Cut**: The current situation is similar to that in the third quarter of 2024 in that the weakening labor market boosts rate - cut expectations. However, the current inflation environment may restrict the Fed's rate - cut decision. As of now, it may not be enough to trigger a "compensatory" rate cut, but there is a potential path [25][27]. - **Trading Focus**: After the non - farm data release, the stock market adjusted significantly. The US economy shows a marginal weakening of growth momentum rather than an impending recession [31][35]. - **Impact on the Investment Research System**: In the short term, ADP employment data may gain more attention. In the long term, the credibility of non - farm data may be questioned, adding uncertainty to the financial market, while the value of gold may increase [35][37].

Group 1 - Trump indicated that Vice President Vance is the "most likely" successor for the 2028 Republican presidential candidate [1][2] - Trump suggested a potential ticket pairing of Vance and Secretary of State Rubio for future elections [2] - Moody's chief economist warned that recent indicators show the US economy is on the "edge of recession," with a weakening labor market and shrinking construction and manufacturing sectors [2] Group 2 - Multiple international financial institutions warned that investors should prepare for a decline in US stock prices due to high valuations and deteriorating economic data [2] - Deutsche Bank analysts noted that the US stock market faces short-term downside risks [3] - Morgan Stanley's analyst projected that the S&P 500 index could correct by up to 10% this quarter due to the impact of US tariff policies [3]