Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve decided to maintain the benchmark interest rate at a target range of 4.25%-4.5%, with two members voting against this decision, advocating for a 25 basis point cut, marking the first dissent since 1993 [1] Economic Conditions - The Federal Reserve's assessment of economic conditions was downgraded to "growth of economic activity moderated" from "expand at a solid pace," indicating a slowdown in economic growth [6] - The labor market is showing signs of cooling, with June's non-farm payrolls increasing slightly to 147,000, but half of this increase was due to government jobs, while private sector employment declined [2][5] - The labor force participation rate is decreasing, and wage growth is slowing, suggesting a weakening labor market [2][5] Inflation Trends - Inflation is experiencing short-term rebound risks, with June inflation rising primarily due to increases in energy and core goods, while core services inflation remains stable [2][5] - The Federal Reserve maintains that inflation is still somewhat elevated, and the process of returning to target levels is halfway complete [4] - Tariff costs are gradually being passed on to consumers, but the impact of tariffs on inflation is expected to be temporary [4][5] Market Reactions - Following the Federal Reserve's announcement, the market's expectation for a rate cut in September significantly decreased from over 60% to below 50% [7] - The stock market experienced a decline, while bond yields rose and the dollar index increased, reflecting market uncertainty regarding inflation and economic conditions [7]

Group 1 - The anticipation of a Federal Reserve interest rate hike is influencing global foreign exchange markets, with potential opportunities and challenges for traders [1][2] - Historically, the dollar index tends to rise significantly before and after the initiation of an interest rate hike cycle, exerting pressure on a basket of major currencies [2] - The market is currently digesting the year-end rate hike expectations, highlighting the need to be cautious of the "buy the rumor, sell the news" phenomenon [2] Group 2 - Different currencies are experiencing significant divergence under the backdrop of a strengthening dollar, with major currencies like the euro and yen facing pressure due to ongoing domestic easing policies [2] - Emerging market currencies are under threat from capital outflows, which may lead to sharp declines in their exchange rates [2] - The Chinese yuan is showing resilience, with onshore markets remaining stable and offshore yuan fluctuations being manageable [2] Group 3 - IEXS is committed to empowering traders by providing comprehensive support in the complex market environment created by the interest rate hike [2][3] - The company offers deep market insights, real-time analysis of Federal Reserve policies, and economic data to anticipate market sentiment shifts [2] - IEXS provides a dual-direction mechanism for trading, allowing traders to capitalize on both rising and falling dollar scenarios [2][3] Group 4 - The company emphasizes the importance of professional analysis and robust tools to help traders navigate the heightened volatility and identify trends [3] - IEXS offers a smart risk control system that includes real-time alerts and automated profit and loss management tools to ensure capital safety [2][3] - The trading experience is enhanced by a stable, low-latency trading system that ensures precise execution during critical market movements [2][3]

Group 1 - The U.S. is eager to engage in business with China, while the "100-day visit to China" plan has failed, leading to increased tensions with tariffs being raised against China [1][3] - China has been reducing its holdings of U.S. Treasury bonds for three consecutive months, with reductions of $173.2 billion, $50.8 billion, and $57.3 billion, aimed at protecting its wealth and adjusting its overseas asset structure [3] - The U.S. Commerce Department has decided to impose a 93.5% anti-dumping duty on Chinese graphite, which, when combined with existing tariffs, will result in a total tariff of 160%, significantly impacting the electric vehicle industry [7][11] Group 2 - Trump's recent actions, including the signing of a fentanyl control bill, reflect a dual strategy of testing China's response while attempting to maintain a friendly dialogue [5][12] - The imposition of high tariffs on graphite and the ongoing issues with rare earth materials indicate a broader strategy to undermine China's competitive advantage in critical materials for electric vehicles [7][12] - The potential for a trade war and rising inflation in the U.S. could lead to significant economic repercussions, particularly if the U.S. Treasury market faces instability [3][12]

Economic Developments - The U.S. Commerce Secretary expressed confidence in reaching an agreement with the EU, with a baseline tariff of 10% set to begin on August 1 [11][12] - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce anticipates that the total retail sales of consumer goods in China will exceed 50 trillion yuan this year [14][18] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology is set to release a growth stabilization plan for ten key industries, including steel and petrochemicals [14][15] Market Performance - The U.S. dollar index fell by 0.155% to 98.46, while U.S. Treasury yields declined across the board, with the 10-year yield at 4.423% and the 2-year yield at 3.88% [3][4] - International oil prices experienced volatility, with WTI crude oil closing at $66 per barrel, down 0.47%, and Brent crude at $68.59 per barrel, down 0.45% [4][8] - The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index rose by 1.33% to close at 24,825.66, with a trading volume of 238.69 billion yuan [5][8] Corporate News - The court hearing for the Wahaha family property dispute is scheduled for August 1 in Hong Kong [16] - The Chinese government is taking measures to combat the smuggling and export of strategic minerals [14][18] - The Ministry of Commerce responded to the U.S. approval of Nvidia's H20 chip sales to China, emphasizing the need for a cooperative environment for mutual benefit [14][18]

The provided content does not contain any information about quantitative models or factors, their construction, evaluation, or testing results. It primarily discusses the performance, fund flows, and market trends of U.S. public funds, as well as the views of overseas asset management institutions. Therefore, there is no relevant information to summarize regarding quantitative models or factors.

Core Viewpoint - The recent economic data from the U.S. indicates a slowdown in inflation, which may impact the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions and subsequently affect silver prices. Economic Data Summary - The U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) for June was below market expectations, with a month-on-month change of 0.0% compared to the expected 0.2% increase, and a year-on-year rate of 2.3%, lower than the anticipated 2.5% and May's 2.6% [3] - The core PPI, excluding volatile food and energy prices, also disappointed, showing a month-on-month change of 0.0% (expected 0.2%) and a year-on-year rate of 2.6%, below the expected 2.7% and May's 3.0% [3] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) report indicated that overall inflation met expectations, but core inflation was slightly lower than anticipated, contributing to a softened outlook on aggressive interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve [3] Silver Price Analysis - Silver prices opened at $37.708, reached a daily high of $38.079, and then fell to a low of $37.473 before closing at $37.897, forming a spinning top candlestick pattern [4] - The upward target for silver is to break through $39.11, which could pave the way towards $40.00, with the next resistance at $40.50 [5] - Downward support levels are identified at $37.50 (previous consolidation high), $36.82 (21-day EMA), and $36.00 (channel support) [6]

Group 1 - The U.S. Treasury market experienced a significant sell-off, particularly in long-term bonds, with the 30-year Treasury yield rising to nearly 5.02%, the highest level since May 23 [1][3] - The surge in yields was primarily driven by recent inflation data, with the June Consumer Price Index (CPI) increasing by 0.3% month-over-month, marking the largest single-month increase this year, and the year-over-year inflation rate rising from 2.4% to 2.7% [3] - The rise in long-term Treasury yields above 5% typically indicates higher borrowing costs, affecting everything from mortgage rates to corporate bond issuance [3] Group 2 - The bond market's adjustment is altering expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's future interest rate policies, with market participants now anticipating that the Fed may need to maintain higher rates for a longer period [3] - On the same day, not only did the 30-year and 20-year Treasury yields surpass 5%, but the 3-month Treasury bill yield also rose to 4.345% [4] - The sell-off in the bond market led to declines in most sectors of the U.S. stock market, with the Dow Jones down 0.98% and the S&P 500 down 0.40%, while only large tech stocks showed relative strength with a slight increase in the Nasdaq [4]

Group 1 - The recent announcement by President Trump regarding a 30% tariff on EU and Mexican imports has caused market volatility, pushing gold prices to a peak of $3,374 per ounce, but subsequent statements indicate a more open stance on trade negotiations, leading to downward pressure on gold prices [1] - As of June 30, China's gold reserves have increased for eight consecutive months, totaling 73.9 million ounces, while the London gold price has seen a 25.84% increase in the first half of the year, despite a decline from the historical high of $3,500 per ounce to around $3,300 [3] - The gold-silver ratio currently stands at 91:1, significantly deviating from the historical average of 40-70:1, suggesting potential opportunities for silver and other precious metals to catch up [4] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve's interest rate hikes are expected to increase the yield on dollar-denominated assets, reducing the appeal of gold as a non-yielding asset, but concerns about inflation may enhance gold's anti-inflation properties [4] - Gold prices are currently consolidating in the $3,300-$3,350 per ounce range, with a bullish Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicating potential upward movement if prices break through $3,350, targeting $3,400 and $3,450 subsequently [5] - Gold盛贵金属 has established a transparent trading ecosystem, with a unique transaction coding system for trades over 0.1 lots, allowing real-time verification, which enhances trust and security in trading [6] Group 3 - Gold盛贵金属 offers intelligent alert tools for short-term traders and dynamic leverage adjustments for long-term investors, facilitating asset appreciation during market fluctuations [8] - The company employs a bank-level fund isolation model for client funds, ensuring 100% compliance with independence standards and faster withdrawal times compared to industry norms [8] - Gold盛贵金属 has been recognized as the "Most Trusted Platform in Asia-Pacific" for six consecutive years, with a user recommendation rate of 98%, reflecting its strong reputation in the market [9]

Group 1 - The new round of tariffs announced by the U.S. government is causing significant uncertainty in the stock market, leading to declines in major indices such as the Dow Jones, S&P 500, and Nasdaq [1][2] - The tariffs, set to take effect on August 1, 2025, include a 30% tax on products from Mexico and the EU, and a 35% tax on goods from Canada, which is expected to disrupt inflation forecasts and complicate monetary policy decisions by the Federal Reserve [1][3] - The Federal Reserve is experiencing internal divisions regarding interest rate outlooks, with concerns that tariffs may lead to persistent inflation pressures, while some officials believe the impact will be temporary [3][4] Group 2 - The upcoming earnings season for U.S. companies is under scrutiny, with major banks like JPMorgan, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo set to report results amid potential tariff impacts [5] - The S&P 500 index's earnings growth is projected to slow to 5.8% year-over-year for Q2, down from 13.7% in Q1, raising questions about whether earnings can support current stock prices [6] - A weaker U.S. dollar, which has depreciated approximately 7% in Q2 and 10% year-to-date, may help mitigate some of the adverse effects of tariffs on multinational companies [6] Group 3 - Concerns are growing that the negative effects of tariffs will soon impact corporate performance and market conditions, particularly for smaller companies that may struggle to pass on increased costs to consumers [7] - Analysts suggest that if negotiations fail and tariffs are fully implemented, the stock market could experience further declines, while successful agreements with countries like Japan and South Korea could boost related sectors such as automotive and electronics [4][6]

Core Concepts - Trend following is not blind speculation; it emphasizes acting in accordance with market trends and avoiding counter-trend operations [1] - Price reflects all fundamentals, sentiment, and policies, ultimately manifesting in price trends [2] - Cut losses quickly and let profits run; quickly stop losses on losing trades while holding profitable trades until the trend ends [3] - Trends have inertia; once established, they are more likely to continue than to reverse [4] - Do not predict; instead, react to market signals and follow trends [5] Trend Identification - Moving Average System: A bullish signal occurs when a short-term moving average crosses above a long-term moving average (e.g., 5-day > 20-day) [6] - Channel Breakout: Enter long when price breaks above the N-day high and short when it breaks below the N-day low [6] - Momentum Indicators: An expanding MACD histogram indicates trend acceleration [6] - Trend Structure: Higher highs and higher lows indicate an uptrend, while lower highs and lower lows indicate a downtrend [6] - Volatility Confirmation: A breakout of the Average True Range (ATR) from recent averages signals trend initiation [6] Strategy Execution - Entry Rules: Enter trades on price breakouts with increased volume or on pullbacks to moving averages [7] - Position Sizing: Limit single trade risk to 1% of total capital [7] - Stop Loss Settings: Use volatility-based stops (±2 times ATR) or structural stops based on previous highs/lows [7] - Profit Taking Logic: Implement trailing stops based on a percentage retracement from the highest price [7] - Multi-Market Adaptation: Different strategies for various asset classes, such as focusing on moving averages for stock index futures and momentum indicators for cryptocurrencies [7] Risk Management - Diversification: Hold 5-10 non-correlated trend positions simultaneously [8] - Leverage Control: Limit futures leverage to 5 times and cryptocurrency leverage to 3 times [8] - Drawdown Triggers: Enforce a 50% reduction in positions if account drawdown reaches 15% [8] - Correlation Monitoring: Reduce positions if the correlation coefficient among holdings exceeds 0.7 [8] Cognitive Misconceptions - Trend following is not equivalent to long-term holding; exit immediately when a trend ends [9] - Holding periods typically range from days to months, not high-frequency trading [9] - Avoid over-optimization, which can lead to failure in real trading [9] - Emotional interference can lead to premature exits; adhere to trailing stops [9] Practical Cases - Oil Price Crash 2020: Trend signals indicated a short position after breaking the 200-day moving average [10] - Nvidia AI Surge 2024: Trend initiation was confirmed by a weekly MACD crossover [10] - Federal Reserve Rate Hikes: The dollar index rose 15% during the 2022 rate hike cycle, validating breakout strategies [10] - Bitcoin Halving Trends: Historical data shows significant price increases following halving events [10]