Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that GBP/USD has been declining this week as traders adopt defensive positions ahead of the Jackson Hole meeting [1] - The US dollar has strengthened due to market expectations of a hawkish stance from Powell, leading to a tense market environment [3] - The recent data does not support a pre-commitment to rate cuts in September, as initial jobless claims continue to improve and inflation data rises [3] Group 2 - The UK central bank's last meeting was hawkish, and recent data, including CPI, has exceeded expectations, indicating economic resilience and ongoing inflation pressure [3] - Despite a weak labor market, the central bank remains focused on inflation, aiming to return to a 2% target, with core inflation remaining above 3% since 2021 [3] Group 3 - Technical analysis indicates that GBP/USD faced rejection at the key level of 1.3590 and may continue to decline towards 1.3368, where buyers might set risk entry points for a rebound [6] - The 4-hour chart shows a slight downtrend, suggesting sellers may continue to exert pressure, while buyers aim for a breakout to the upside [7] Group 4 - Upcoming catalysts include the release of the latest US initial jobless claims data and PMI figures, with a focus on Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole symposium [8]

Core Insights - The article highlights a paradox where the US stock market is reaching new highs and economic data appears strong, yet corporate bankruptcies have surged to the highest level since 2010, with 446 bankruptcy filings in the first seven months of 2023 [1][5] - Notable brands like Forever 21, Joann's, and Del Monte Foods are among those filing for bankruptcy, primarily due to declining demand, high inventory costs, and significant debt pressures [5][6] - The Federal Reserve's continuous interest rate hikes, from near-zero levels to 4.25%-4.50%, are identified as a major factor contributing to the financial distress of many companies [6][9] Bankruptcy Trends - In July 2023 alone, 71 companies filed for bankruptcy, marking the highest monthly total since the onset of the pandemic in 2020 [1] - Del Monte Foods, with over $10 billion in debt, exemplifies the severe financial challenges faced by companies in the current economic climate [5] Lending Environment - Banks are reportedly more selective in lending, with stringent approval processes that even affect well-performing companies, leading to liquidity issues [9] - The article draws parallels to past financial crises, suggesting that the current situation may reflect underlying vulnerabilities despite apparent market prosperity [5][6] Market Behavior - The article emphasizes the importance of understanding market dynamics, suggesting that retail investors often react to news rather than underlying market conditions, leading to losses [9][18] - It discusses how institutional trading behaviors can be analyzed through quantitative tools, which can reveal true market intentions and help investors make informed decisions [14][16][18]

Report Summary 1. Core View - In the context of the domestic "anti-involution" theme, the mid - and downstream black and chemical sectors have relative returns, and processing profits still face the need for repair [3] - Refining profits are passively repaired, and the processing demand in the peak season of the fourth quarter recedes [33] 2. Summary by Related Catalogs Energy - related Commodity Prices - The report presents the unit heat - value price performance of energy - related commodities and the cumulative price changes of commodities in the post - energy - crisis era, including TTF natural gas futures, API2 Rotterdam Q6000 coal futures, ICE NEWC futures, and Brent crude oil futures [3][4] Crude Oil Spot and Futures Spreads - It shows the spot - futures spreads of various crude oils such as Forties, IK Fisker crude, CPC Blend CIF, etc., and the spreads between different crude oil futures contracts like Brent C1 - C7, dated BFOE - WTI Cushing, etc [6] OPEC+ Production - Displays OPEC+ production, production quotas, target production, and the production of Saudi Arabia and Russia. Also shows the weekly loading volume of crude oil from 9 OPEC countries [8] Crude Oil Exports - Presents the crude oil exports of Iran and Venezuela, including their exports to China [11] Geopolitical Risks - Displays the probability forecasts of geopolitical events such as the US - Iran nuclear agreement, Iran's blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, and the Russia - Ukraine cease - fire agreement in 2025 [12] US Oil Production - Covers the number of non - Gulf of Mexico oil rigs in the US, the monthly average price of WTI (with a 4 - month lag), the breakdown of new shale oil production in the US, and the dynamic adjustment of US crude oil production forecasts [15][16][17] Non - OPEC and Other Regions' Oil Supply - Shows the oil supply growth rate of non - OPEC, Russia, and shale oil regions, the crude oil and condensate production of 4 American countries, and the new conventional production capacity in 2025 in countries like Norway, the US, etc [19] Federal Reserve Policy and Global Manufacturing - Displays the pricing of the remaining number of Fed rate hikes in 2025 and the global manufacturing PMI of the US, Eurozone, Japan, China, India, etc [22] Global Oil Demand - Shows the downward adjustment of global oil demand growth rate by institutions in April 2025 and the forecast of global oil demand growth rate by product [24] US and Chinese Oil Product Demand - Presents the year - on - year growth rate of the 4 - week average of US refined oil product demand, the demand for gasoline and diesel in China, and China's refined oil product exports [28][31] Refining Profits and Capacity Utilization - Displays the comprehensive refining profits of refineries in Singapore, Northwest Europe, and the US Gulf, the refining margins of Chinese refineries, and the capacity utilization rates of Chinese and international refineries [34] Crude Oil and Oil Product Inventories - Covers the on - land commercial inventory, floating storage inventory, and total inventory of crude oil, as well as the global inventory of refined oil products, light distillates, diesel, kerosene, fuel oil, etc [36][38] OPEC+ Supply - Demand Balance - Shows the global demand for OPEC+ crude oil supply under the baseline scenario, the supply - demand gap, and the global oil inventory [40] Other Oil - related Data - Displays the monthly asphalt production of domestic refineries, the shipping destination structure of Venezuelan oil, the spot - futures spreads of Singapore fuel oil, the ship - refueling spreads, and the high - low sulfur spreads [43][52][53]

多名美联储官员23日分别发表讲话，对5月货币政策会议上调联邦基金利率50个基点表示支持。 此外，作为美联储"鹰派"官员，圣路易斯联邦储备银行主席詹姆斯·布拉德当天也表示，由于疫情 已导致美国经济出现严重的供需失衡，美联储官员应更快采取行动上调利率水平。布拉德预计，截至今 年底利率水平将升至3%以上。 美联储将在5月3日至4日举行货币政策会议。美联储临时主席鲍威尔21日表示，如果有必要，美联 储会在这次会议上加息50个基点。目前市场预计美联储将加息50个基点的概率高达63.9%，远高于加息 25个基点的概率。 美联储16日宣布上调联邦基金利率目标区间25个基点至0.25%到0.5%之间。这是美联储2018年12月 以来首次加息。布拉德是当天唯一一名投反对票的美联储官员。他认为，美联储应在3月份会议上加息 50个基点。 【纠错】 【责任编辑:柴峥】 旧金山联邦储备银行主席玛丽·戴利当天表示，如果美国经济形势需要美联储在5月份会议上加息50 个基点，那么美联储会作出这一决定。她同时表示，如果形势必要，她也会支持加息25个基点。在她看 来，美联储应采取一切必要措施以确保价格稳定，引导外界相信美联储将竭力遏制通胀。 克 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights a significant recovery in China's gold consumption and production in the first half of the year, driven by economic recovery and increased consumer demand [1][2][3] Group 2 - In the first half of the year, China's gold consumption reached 554.88 tons, marking a 16.37% increase compared to the same period last year [1] - Gold jewelry consumption accounted for 368.26 tons, growing by 14.82%, while gold bars and coins consumption surged to 146.31 tons, up by 30.12% [1] - Domestic gold production increased to 178.598 tons, a rise of 2.24% year-on-year, with total gold production, including imports, reaching 243.996 tons, reflecting a 5.93% increase [2] - The recovery of gold production is attributed to the resumption of operations in major mines and the consolidation of resources among large gold enterprises, such as Shandong Gold's acquisition of Silver Tai Gold [2] Group 3 - Industry experts anticipate that gold production and consumption will continue to rise in the second half of the year, supported by expectations of rising gold prices and government policies aimed at boosting domestic demand [3] - Despite potential risks associated with high gold prices affecting consumer behavior, the overall outlook for gold consumption remains positive due to ongoing economic recovery [3]

8月6日，据报道，美联储官员卡什卡利表示，短期内开始调整政策利率可能仍是合适的；美联储需要对 经济放缓作出回应；今年降息两次似乎仍然是合适的；如果通胀因关税而上升，美联储可能会暂停降 息，甚至加息。 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The view on cotton is that it will be in a state of oscillation. ICE US cotton rose 0.78% to 67.16 cents per pound on Tuesday, and CF509 rose 0.11% to 13,655 yuan per ton. The macro - level is the main focus in the international market, and the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in September is high, but the supply - demand of US cotton in the new year is relatively loose. In the domestic market, the macro sentiment is warm, and the Zhengzhou cotton 09 contract's position is decreasing. The 09 contract has limited downside space but needs additional factors to rise, while the 01 contract is stable in the short - term and bullish in the long - term [2]. - The view on sugar is also oscillation. As of the end of July, Guangxi's sugar sales and sales rate increased year - on - year, and the industrial inventory decreased. The spot quotes were mostly stable, and the raw sugar was generally weak but showed signs of stopping the decline. The domestic basis has basically been repaired, and the reverse arbitrage can stop profit - taking. Wait for the guidance of raw sugar and the trading opportunity of the January contract's oversold rebound [2]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Research Views - **Cotton**: ICE US cotton rose 0.78% to 67.16 cents per pound, CF509 rose 0.11% to 13,655 yuan per ton, and the main contract's position decreased by 11,604 hands to 292,400 hands. The cotton arrival price in Xinjiang was 15,081 yuan per ton, up 12 yuan per ton, and the China Cotton Price Index 3128B was 15,169 yuan per ton, up 16 yuan per ton. The international market focuses on the macro - level, and the Fed's September interest - rate cut probability is high, but US cotton supply - demand is loose. The domestic macro sentiment is warm, and the Zhengzhou cotton 09 contract's position is decreasing. The 09 contract has limited downside space and needs extra factors to rise, while the 01 contract is stable in the short - term and bullish in the long - term [2]. - **Sugar**: As of the end of July, Guangxi's cumulative sugar sales were 5.4961 million tons, an increase of 396,600 tons year - on - year, and the sales rate was 85.01%, a 2.51 - percentage - point increase. In July, the single - month sales volume was 355,500 tons, a decrease of 217,800 tons year - on - year, and the industrial inventory was 968,900 tons, a decrease of 113,000 tons. Spot quotes were mostly stable, and the raw sugar was weak but showed signs of stopping the decline. The domestic basis has basically been repaired, and wait for raw sugar guidance and the January contract's trading opportunity [2]. 2. Daily Data Monitoring - **Cotton**: The 9 - 1 spread was - 165, a decrease of 35; the main basis was 1514, an increase of 36. The Xinjiang spot price was 15,081 yuan per ton, an increase of 12 yuan per ton, and the national spot price was 15,169 yuan per ton, an increase of 16 yuan per ton [3]. - **Sugar**: The 9 - 1 spread was 70, a decrease of 25 [3]. 3. Market Information - On August 5th, the cotton futures warehouse receipt quantity was 8,563, a decrease of 121 from the previous trading day, and the effective forecast was 348 [4]. - On August 5th, the cotton arrival prices in Xinjiang, Henan, Shandong, and Zhejiang were 15,081 yuan per ton, 15,184 yuan per ton, 15,135 yuan per ton, and 15,225 yuan per ton respectively [4]. - On August 5th, the yarn comprehensive load was 49.4, an increase of 0.1; the yarn comprehensive inventory was 29.9, an increase of 0.2; the short - fiber cloth comprehensive load was 47.7, a decrease of 0.1; and the short - fiber cloth comprehensive inventory was 33.8, unchanged [4]. - On August 5th, the sugar spot prices in Nanning and Liuzhou were 6,030 yuan per ton (unchanged) and 6,035 yuan per ton (a decrease of 20 yuan per ton) respectively [4]. - On August 5th, the sugar futures warehouse receipt quantity was 19,260, a decrease of 113 from the previous trading day, and the effective forecast was 0 [5].

Group 1: Monthly Performance of US Public Funds - In June 2025, US equity funds outperformed international equity funds, bond funds, and asset allocation funds, with median returns of 4.48%, 3.59%, 1.10%, and 3.32% respectively [1][7][9]. Group 2: Fund Flows and Trends - In June 2025, the US fund market saw a net inflow of $696 billion into passive funds, while active funds experienced a net outflow of $231 billion [8][21]. - The total number of new funds established in June 2025 was 94, comprising 79 ETFs and 15 open-end funds, with 65 new equity funds, 21 bond funds, and 8 asset allocation funds [3][44]. Group 3: Insights from Leading Asset Management Firms - Key themes from leading asset management firms include the outlook on US macroeconomic conditions, stock market perspectives, and the impact of geopolitical events on inflation and investment strategies [4][46][49]. - Firms like PIMCO and Capital Group emphasize the importance of maintaining a balanced portfolio amid economic uncertainties and market volatility [49][50].

Investment Rating - Industry Rating: Outperform the Market (Maintain Rating) [1] Core Insights - The report indicates a cautious outlook for the basic metals sector, with copper and aluminum prices experiencing downward pressure due to macroeconomic factors and weak demand [4][10][20] - Precious metals are expected to see upward movement in gold prices driven by recession fears and adjustments in U.S. economic data [6][24] - The report highlights the stability in the rare earth sector, with expectations for improved fundamentals in the upcoming quarter [8] Summary by Sections 1. Base Metals & Precious Metals - Copper: Price has retreated to 78,170 CNY/ton, with low inventory providing some support despite seasonal demand weakness [4][13] - Aluminum: Prices have decreased, with the average price at 20,623 CNY/ton, influenced by rising social inventory and subdued market demand [5][20] - Precious Metals: Gold price averaged 767.63 CNY/gram, down 1.67%, while silver averaged 9,158 CNY/kg, down 1.44% [6][24] 2. Minor Metals - Antimony: Prices remain stable, with market dynamics showing limited supply and demand [7][40] - Lithium: Carbonate prices have dropped, reflecting a cooling market sentiment [40] - Cobalt: Prices are strong due to tight supply conditions, with cobalt intermediate prices rising [42][43] - Tin: Prices have declined, with the average price at 33,410 USD/ton, reflecting weakened macro sentiment [45] - Tungsten: Prices have increased across the board, with black tungsten concentrate averaging 195,500 CNY/ton [51] - Molybdenum: Prices have surged, with molybdenum concentrate averaging 4,315 CNY/ton, driven by strong market demand [61][62] 3. Rare Earths - Rare earth prices are stable, with light rare earth oxide prices increasing by 3.3% to 531,000 CNY/ton, indicating a potential for significant improvement in fundamentals [8]

Core Viewpoint - The recent hawkish stance of the Federal Reserve has led to a reassessment of the interest rate cut timeline, boosting demand for the US dollar and putting pressure on gold prices, which are currently trading below $3,290 [1][2]. Economic Indicators - The US dollar index has risen for the seventh consecutive day, reaching a new high since late May, further diminishing gold's appeal [2]. - The June PCE price index in the US increased to 2.6% year-on-year, with the core index stable at 2.8%, exceeding market expectations and reinforcing the view of persistent inflation [2]. - The upcoming US non-farm payroll report is expected to show an increase of 110,000 jobs in July, down from 147,000 in June, with the unemployment rate projected to rise from 4.1% to 4.2% [2]. Market Sentiment - President Trump's recent executive order imposing tariffs of 10% to 41% on imports from several trade partners, including Asian countries, has heightened global trade concerns and increased market risk aversion, providing some support for gold prices [2]. - If non-farm employment numbers exceed 100,000, it may indicate a robust labor market, allowing the Federal Reserve to prioritize inflation control, which would support the dollar [2]. Technical Analysis - Gold prices have shown a downward trend, with expectations of further declines towards $3,200 or $3,000, despite not breaking below the mid-line support [4]. - A significant resistance area exists around the 21-day and 50-day moving averages near $3,340, and gold must break through the psychological level of $3,300 for any recovery attempts [5]. - If gold closes below the critical support level of $3,270 per ounce, a new downward trend may emerge, potentially leading to a drop towards the June 30 low of $3,248 per ounce [4].