Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles revolves around the fluctuations in gold prices, influenced by multiple factors including the upcoming Federal Reserve interest rate decision, U.S.-China trade negotiations, and global risk sentiment [1][3][4] - Gold prices experienced a rebound, reaching a peak of $3333.93 per ounce before closing at $3326.35, reflecting a 0.36% increase after a drop to $3302, the lowest since July 9 [1] - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain interest rates in the 4.25%-4.50% range, but there are indications of potential dovish signals in the policy statement due to mixed economic data [3] Group 2 - The U.S.-China trade talks have led to an extension of the tariff truce, with China confirming efforts to push for the suspension of certain tariffs, although the negotiations are expected to be complex and lengthy [4] - Recent trade agreements between the U.S. and the EU, as well as Japan, may influence the Federal Reserve's decisions, potentially reducing external risks and creating space for a dovish shift [4] - The current gold market is at a critical turning point, with strong support at the $3300 level and resistance around $3350, influenced by both global trade tensions and expectations of a shift in Federal Reserve policy [5]

Fundamental Analysis - The Federal Reserve is widely expected to maintain interest rates in the range of 4.25%-4.50%, with market focus on whether the policy statement will convey dovish signals [3] - Economic data presents mixed signals: June job openings decreased and hiring numbers fell, indicating a weak labor market, while the July consumer confidence index rose to 97.2, exceeding expectations [4] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield fell to 4.330%, the lowest since July 3, reflecting market risk aversion and bets on a shift in Federal Reserve policy [4] - Following the U.S.-EU and U.S.-Japan trade agreements, external risks have decreased, potentially creating space for a dovish shift by the Federal Reserve [5] Technical Analysis - On the daily chart, gold experienced a small upward movement after four consecutive days of decline, indicating a potential slowdown in the downtrend [7] - Key resistance levels for gold are at 3335/3336 and 3345, while support levels are at 3302/3301, 3282, and 3275 [7][9] - The four-hour chart suggests that if gold can hold above the 3302/3301 level, it may confirm an upward structure, with targets set at 3354, 3370, and 3386/3387 [9]

Group 1 - Domestic gold prices have fallen for the fourth consecutive day, with Shanghai Gold Exchange T+D price closing at 767.75 yuan/gram, down 0.25% from the previous day, marking a three-week low [1] - Internationally, London spot gold prices dropped to a low of $3,310 per ounce on July 28, the lowest since July 17, with a volatile trading day on July 29 [1] - The decline in gold prices is attributed to the strong dollar, a shift in Federal Reserve policy, and sluggish domestic consumption [1][7] Group 2 - In contrast to falling gold prices, retail prices at brand gold stores remain high, with Chow Tai Fook and Chow Sang Sang maintaining prices around 998 yuan/gram, while some stores like Lao Feng Xiang price gold at 1,000 yuan/gram [3] - The price differences among various brands are significant, with some stores offering lower prices, such as Cai Bai and China Gold at 982 yuan/gram and 981 yuan/gram respectively, creating a disparity that frustrates consumers [3] - Platinum jewelry prices also show large discrepancies, with Chow Tai Fook's platinum priced at 569 yuan/gram compared to Lao Feng Xiang's 470 yuan/gram, highlighting the high costs consumers face [3] Group 3 - The gold buyback price has plummeted, with 99.9% gold buyback price dropping to 756 yuan/gram, and 22K gold at 669 yuan/gram, leading to a 30% increase in customers selling gold [5] - Some merchants exploit information asymmetry, attracting customers with high buyback prices but later reducing the amount paid due to claims of insufficient purity or wear [5] - Chow Tai Fook's buyback price is 758 yuan/gram, which is 240 yuan lower than their selling price, further exacerbating consumer losses [5] Group 4 - The root cause of the gold price drop is the strong rise in the dollar index, which surged 1% to 98.69 on July 28, the highest since May [7] - The expectation of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September has weakened, with the probability dropping from 80% to 60%, leading to a significant increase in the opportunity cost of holding gold [7] - Gold jewelry sales in the first half of the year were only 199.83 tons, a year-on-year decline of 26%, indicating a bleak business environment for gold retailers [7]

Key Points Summary Group 1: Trade Developments - Recent trade negotiations led by the US have made significant progress, reducing tariffs on Japanese automobiles from 27.5% to 15% and approaching a deal with the EU to maintain a 15% tariff on US-bound goods, avoiding a potential increase to 30% [1] - The easing of trade tensions has decreased market concerns about global trade friction, resulting in a shift of funds from safe-haven assets like gold to equity markets, with the Nikkei 225 index surpassing 41,000 points and US stock indices reaching record highs [1] Group 2: Market Reactions - Gold prices initially surged past $3,400 per ounce due to a weaker dollar and declining US Treasury yields but later retreated following positive trade news, with New York gold futures reported at $3,363.3 per ounce, down 0.30% [4] - The International Monetary Fund has warned that US tariff policies could increase inflation and harm the global economy, indicating ongoing macroeconomic uncertainties [5] Group 3: Geopolitical Risks - The risk from the Russia-Ukraine conflict has decreased, with recent negotiations yielding some consensus on prisoner exchanges, although significant differences remain regarding ceasefire agreements [3] - Ongoing geopolitical tensions, including the Middle East situation and US tariff negotiations with other economies, continue to be critical areas of focus [9] Group 4: Monetary Policy Outlook - The upcoming Federal Reserve meeting is crucial, with expectations of a potential rate cut in September, which could influence gold prices depending on the signals released [6] - The long-term outlook for gold remains positive, supported by ongoing central bank purchases, including an increase in holdings by the People's Bank of China for eight consecutive months [10] Group 5: Investment Strategies - The current market environment suggests a "gold +" investment strategy to enhance portfolio resilience, with historical data indicating that gold has outperformed many mainstream assets over the past 20 years [10] - Short-term fluctuations in gold prices are anticipated, but medium to long-term prospects remain bullish due to supportive factors such as policy easing and geopolitical risks [10]

Group 1 - The earnings season for Q2 2025 has begun amidst a complex investment environment influenced by the Trump administration's global tariff policies, which are expected to impact corporate profit margins significantly [1] - Analysts predict a 2.5% year-over-year profit growth for the S&P 500 in Q2, with net profit margins declining to the lowest level since Q1 2024, although this decline may be temporary due to ongoing investments in artificial intelligence by major tech companies [3] - The banking sector is expected to show mixed results, reflecting the impact of monetary policy on different business models, with high interest rates squeezing traditional lending profits while capital market activities benefit trading and investment banking [5] Group 2 - The "Big Seven" tech companies are projected to contribute nearly 65% of the S&P 500's profit growth in Q2, with an expected profit increase of 14%, driven by their asset-light business models and significant investments in AI [5] - Defensive sectors such as utilities, consumer staples, and healthcare have shown relative stability in uncertain environments, outperforming cyclical sectors by approximately 6 percentage points since the announcement of tariff policies [7] - Cyclical industries, particularly steel and aluminum producers, are expected to be the biggest victims of tariff policies, as weakened demand from downstream industries like automotive and construction hampers anticipated growth [7] Group 3 - Despite challenges such as tariff impacts, slowing profit growth, and high valuations, the S&P 500 reached a historical high in early July, supported by resilient economic growth expectations and a potential shift in Federal Reserve policy towards interest rate cuts [9] - Investors are advised to focus on high-growth tech giants while also considering stable defensive sectors, as the earnings reports may surprise positively due to lower market expectations [9]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's recent shift in monetary policy has significant implications for both the U.S. and global economies, driven by rising inflation, a tight labor market, and the need to control economic growth [1][3]. Impact on U.S. Economy - The increase in interest rates will raise borrowing costs for both businesses and consumers, potentially leading to a slowdown in consumption and investment activities [3]. - Higher financing costs may cause companies to delay expansion plans and reduce hiring, which could result in a slowdown in economic growth or even a short-term recession [3]. Global Financial Market Effects - The rise in U.S. interest rates is likely to lead to capital returning to the U.S., altering global capital flow dynamics and causing funding shortages in other economies, particularly emerging markets [3][5]. - Emerging economies, which rely on foreign capital for growth and currency stability, may face increased financial market volatility and currency depreciation pressures due to capital outflows [3][5]. Challenges for Emerging Markets - Emerging economies are particularly vulnerable, facing multiple challenges such as capital outflows, rising capital costs, and increased debt pressures [5][9]. - The depreciation of local currencies due to capital flight will raise import costs and exacerbate inflationary pressures in these countries [5][9]. - Many emerging markets depend on dollar-denominated financing, and the rising dollar will increase their debt repayment burdens, posing significant risks to their financial stability [9][10]. Stock Market Reactions - The Fed's interest rate hikes typically lead to volatility in global capital markets, with funds shifting from equities to fixed-income products, putting downward pressure on stock prices [7]. - Companies that rely on capital market financing may see their market valuations decline, which could limit their ability to raise further capital, particularly affecting high-valuation sectors like technology [7]. Policy Adjustments - The Fed's policy shift may prompt other central banks to adjust their monetary policies in response to the pressures of currency appreciation and capital outflows [7][10]. - Central banks in regions like Europe and Japan may adopt more accommodative policies to mitigate the negative impacts of a stronger dollar on their economies [7][10]. Opportunities Amidst Challenges - Some emerging markets with strong domestic demand and lower external debt may be better positioned to withstand external shocks and could attract more foreign investment as global market instability increases [10][11]. - Countries with robust fiscal and monetary policies may leverage their foreign exchange reserves to counteract capital outflow pressures and enhance domestic consumption [10][11].

Core Insights - The global economy is facing a triple challenge of "sticky inflation, policy swings, and geopolitical conflicts" which has led to a significant increase in gold prices, surpassing $3,132 per ounce in early April 2025, marking a rise of over 12% since the beginning of the year [1] - The shift in Federal Reserve policy expectations, concerns over trade system restructuring due to the Trump administration's "reciprocal tariff policy," and a three-year trend of central banks increasing gold reserves have contributed to this milestone [1] Group 1: Reconstructed Hedging Logic - The financial market is reassessing the intrinsic value of precious metals, with gold gaining favor as a non-USD asset following the Fed's signal to pause interest rate hikes [3] - Silver has reached its highest price since 2012, driven by surging semiconductor demand and its dual role as both an industrial and financial asset [3] - Central banks globally added 1,136 tons of gold in 2024, reflecting a cautious attitude towards the USD credit system, with 95% of surveyed central banks planning to continue increasing their gold reserves in the next 12 months [3] Group 2: Visible Investment Pain Points - Ordinary investors face three main obstacles: compliance risks from platforms with unclear qualifications, delayed technical responses during market volatility, and high cost barriers due to traditional platforms' high spreads and minimum trading limits [4] - The average spread for traditional platforms exceeds $0.5 per ounce, with minimum trading limits around $100,000, which excludes small and medium investors [4] Group 3: Platform Value Analysis - Gold Rong China, holding AA class 084 member qualification from the Hong Kong Gold Exchange, offers systematic solutions to address industry pain points [5] - The strict regulatory framework of the Hong Kong financial system ensures client funds are independently held by third-party banks, eliminating misuse risks, and each transaction is traceable [6] - The platform achieves millisecond-level order execution and optimized fund flow, with order delays controlled within 0.1 seconds and instant fund deposits [7] Group 4: Inclusive Services Lowering Participation Barriers - The platform offers lower spreads starting at $0.34 per ounce, saving over 30% compared to market averages [8] - It supports micro contracts of 0.01 lots, allowing small capital entry for investors [8] - Risk management tools such as "negative balance protection" and customizable stop-loss and take-profit features help secure profits [8] Group 5: Summary - The gold market is transitioning from "hedge-driven" to "value reassessment," influenced by central bank gold purchases and geopolitical risks [9] - Investors should focus on the implications of Fed policy shifts and tariff policies while prioritizing platform selection based on compliance, technical performance, and cost structure [9]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - Overseas, Powell's slightly dovish stance on interest - rate cuts and the uncertainty of US trade agreements have affected the global risk appetite; domestically, the increase in the manufacturing PMI in June and consumption - stimulating policies have improved the domestic market sentiment. Different asset classes have different short - term trends and corresponding investment suggestions [2]. - The domestic stock market is rising, driven by factors such as the improvement of economic data and policy stimulus. The short - term macro - upward drive has increased, and short - term cautious buying is recommended [3]. - Gold prices are supported by factors such as the US tax and spending bill and Powell's dovish stance. The market expects two interest rate cuts this year starting from September. Gold is expected to be strong in the short term [4]. - Due to the weakening of the US dollar, non - ferrous metals are showing a strong - oscillating trend. Different non - ferrous metals have different supply - demand situations and price trends [5]. - The oil price will continue to oscillate due to the game between summer demand and OPEC+ production increase prospects. Different energy - chemical products have different price trends based on their own supply - demand and cost factors [9]. - International crude oil premium and US biodiesel policy利好 are exhausted, and domestic oils and fats are under short - term pressure. Different agricultural products have different price trends based on their own supply - demand situations [14]. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro Finance - Overseas: Powell's statement is slightly dovish, but the labor market demand is better than expected. The US trade agreement is uncertain, and the global risk preference has cooled down. - Domestic: The manufacturing PMI in June is 49.7%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month. Consumption - stimulating policies have improved the domestic market sentiment. - Asset Suggestions: Stocks are expected to rebound in the short - term with cautious buying; bonds are at a high level and should be observed carefully; commodities in different sectors have different trends and corresponding investment suggestions [2]. Stock Index - The domestic stock market continues to rise, supported by sectors such as CSSC, biomedicine, and semiconductors. - Fundamental factors include the improvement of economic data and policy stimulus. The short - term macro - upward drive has increased, and short - term cautious buying is recommended [3]. Precious Metals - Gold prices rose on Tuesday. The US tax and spending bill and Powell's dovish stance support the gold price. The market expects two interest rate cuts this year starting from September. Gold is expected to be strong in the short term, and subsequent employment data should be focused on [4]. Non - Ferrous Metals and New Energy - Copper: US officials are seeking to reach a trade agreement by July 9. The supply is high, demand may weaken, and the inventory growth has slowed down. The price may fall in the future, and the negotiation results and tariff policies should be focused on. - Aluminum: The aluminum price rose due to the increase in copper prices. The LME inventory is increasing, and the domestic inventory has reached the inflection point of destocking. The warehouse receipts are decreasing. - Aluminum Alloy: It is in the off - season of demand, but the tight supply of scrap aluminum supports the price. The price is expected to be strong in the short term with limited upside. - Tin: The supply of tin ore is tight, and the demand is in the off - season. The price is expected to be strong in the short term but will be restricted in the medium term. - Carbonate Lithium: The supply is relatively loose, and one should wait for the opportunity after the rebound meets resistance. - Industrial Silicon: The price fell sharply, and the supply is unstable. It is expected to be in a weak - oscillating state, and one should observe. - Polysilicon: The fundamentals are loose, and it is recommended to short on rallies [5][6][7]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude Oil: The short - term oil price will continue to oscillate due to the game between summer demand and OPEC+ production increase prospects. - Asphalt: The price is oscillating strongly, following the oil price. The inventory is being destocked, and the situation in the peak - demand season should be focused on. - PX: The cost support is strong, but the downstream demand feedback is negative. It will follow the oil price and oscillate strongly. - PTA: The short - term basis has fallen, the demand is low, and the price may fall slightly later. - Ethylene Glycol: The price center has fallen, and the inventory at the port has decreased. The price will oscillate. - Short - Fiber: The inventory is being destocked slowly, and the price will oscillate weakly following the cost. - Methanol: The price is oscillating, affected by factors such as inventory and supply. The operation of Iranian devices should be focused on. - PP: The price is expected to oscillate weakly due to the increase in production and weak demand. - LLDPE: The price is expected to oscillate weakly due to the increase in production and weak demand in the off - season [9][10][12]. Agricultural Products - US Soybeans: The short - term CBOT soybeans may have weather - related premium support due to less rainfall and higher temperatures in the main production areas in the next two weeks. - Bean and Rapeseed Meal: The supply of soybean meal is loose, and the basis is expected to be weak. The stable price of US soybeans provides some support. - Bean and Rapeseed Oil: The supply of soybean oil is loose, and it may be under pressure following related oils and fats. The supply of rapeseed oil is expected to improve, and the high inventory at the port is being digested. - Palm Oil: The domestic inventory is increasing, and the price is expected to continue to weaken due to the exhaustion of利好 factors. - Corn: The spot price is strong, while the futures price is weak. After the seasonal substitution of wheat for feed consumption, the corn price is likely to rise. - Pig: The spot price has rebounded due to the reduction of group - farm slaughter at the end of the month. The supply is expected to increase in July, and the price has some resilience. Attention should be paid to the epidemic risk in North China [14][15][16].

Group 1: Report Summary - The report is a weekly report on the precious metals market covering the week up to June 27, 2025 [2] - It provides an analysis of the precious metals market including gold and silver, focusing on market trends, supply - demand dynamics, and macroeconomic factors [7] Group 2: Market Trends Gold - Gold prices initially rose due to increased safe - haven demand from Iran's attack on US military bases but later fell as the Iran - Israel cease - fire deal improved market risk appetite. Weak US economic data and mixed Fed officials' stances affected the market. Gold prices dropped significantly on Friday due to cooling risk - aversion [7] - COMEX gold was at $3304.6 per ounce on June 27, 2025, down 2.40% from the previous period; the Shanghai gold main contract 2508 was at 766.40 yuan per gram, down 1.88% [10] Silver - Silver prices showed resilience due to their industrial properties. COMEX silver was at $36.675 per ounce on June 27, 2025, up 1.83% from the previous period; the Shanghai silver main contract 2508 was at 8792 yuan per kilogram, up 0.61% [10] Group 3: Market Outlook - Weak US economic data and dovish signals from Fed officials boost the expectation of interest rate cuts in the second half of the year, which is positive for the monetary attribute of gold. However, the upward movement of gold prices may face resistance as investors' interest in gold as a safe - haven tool weakens [7] - The cease - fire between Iran and Israel is fragile, and the Russia - Ukraine conflict affects European energy security, providing some support for gold's safe - haven demand [7] - Fed's policy stance and inflation - employment data will determine the future trend of precious metals [7] Group 4: Investment Recommendations - In the short term, be aware of the risk of price corrections. For the Shanghai gold 2508 contract, the expected trading range is 750 - 780 yuan per gram; for the Shanghai silver 2508 contract, it is 8700 - 9000 yuan per kilogram. For COMEX gold futures, the range is $3260 - $3350 per ounce, and for COMEX silver futures, it is $36 - $37 per ounce [7] Group 5: Market Indicators ETFs - As of June 26, 2025, the net holdings of SPDR Gold ETF increased by 0.64% to 953.39 tons, and the net holdings of SLV Silver ETF increased by 0.70% to 14866.19 tons [15] Futures Positions - As of June 17, 2025, COMEX gold total positions increased by 5.77% to 441214 contracts, and net positions increased by 7.02% to 200648 contracts. COMEX silver total positions increased by 6.05% to 184831 contracts, and net positions increased by 0.79% to 67174 contracts [20] CFTC Positions - As of June 17, 2025, COMEX gold non - commercial long positions increased by 5.90% to 260586 contracts, and non - commercial short positions increased by 2.40% to 59938 contracts [25] Basis - As of June 26, 2025, the gold basis was - 7.28 yuan per gram, down 360.8% from the previous period; the silver basis was - 40 yuan per kilogram, down 133% [28] Inventory - As of June 26, 2025, COMEX gold inventory decreased by 1.9% to 37048334.61 ounces, and Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) gold inventory decreased by 0.05% to 18168 kilograms. COMEX silver inventory increased by 0.20% to 498310493 troy ounces, and SHFE silver inventory increased by 1.70% to 1230233 kilograms [33] Group 6: Industry Supply - Demand Silver - In May 2025, China's silver imports decreased by 2.46% to 273741.39 kilograms, while silver ore imports increased by 10.54% to 136237148.00 kilograms [39] - In May 2025, the monthly output of integrated circuits was 4240000.00 units, with a year - on - year growth rate of 11.5% [44] - In 2024, silver industrial demand was 680.5 million ounces, up 4% year - on - year; coin and net bar demand was 190.9 million ounces, down 22% year - on - year; silver ETF net investment demand was 61.6 million ounces (compared to - 37.6 million ounces in the previous year). Total silver demand was 1164.1 million ounces, down 3% year - on - year [50] - By the end of 2024, total silver supply was 1015.1 million ounces, up 2% year - on - year; total demand was 1164.1 million ounces, down 3% year - on - year; the supply - demand gap was - 148.9 million ounces, down 26% from the previous period [54] Gold - As of June 26, 2025, the recycling price of China Gold decreased by 1.12% to 768.8 yuan per gram. The gold prices of Laofengxiang, Chow Tai Fook, and Liulifuzhou decreased by 1.18%, 2.16%, and 2.69% respectively [58] - In the first quarter of 2025, gold industrial (technology) demand was 7396.6 ounces, gold investment demand increased by 71.93% to 50741 ounces, gold jewelry demand decreased by 10.47% to 39899.9 ounces, and total gold demand increased by 7.12% to 120440.4 ounces [64] Group 7: Macroeconomic Factors - This week, the US dollar index and the 10 - year Treasury yield both declined [66] - The 10Y - 2Y Treasury yield spread narrowed, the CBOE gold volatility decreased, and the SP500/COMEX gold price ratio increased [71] - The US 10 - year breakeven inflation rate decreased this week [76] - In June 2025, the People's Bank of China increased its gold reserves by about 2.18 tons, and the Central Bank of Turkey increased its gold reserves by 2.12 tons [80]

Group 1 - Emerging market assets experienced a broad rebound driven by improved market sentiment due to signals from the Federal Reserve and easing geopolitical tensions, with the MSCI Emerging Markets Currency Index rising over 0.6% in a single day [1] - The U.S. dollar index and 10-year Treasury yields weakened simultaneously, while emerging market stock indices recorded their largest single-day gain since April [1] - Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's congressional testimony hinted at a potential window for early rate cuts, aligning with dovish comments from other Fed officials, which reinforced market expectations for a third rate cut this year [1] Group 2 - Easing geopolitical risks, particularly a temporary ceasefire agreement between Israel and Iran facilitated by the U.S., contributed to rising asset prices in developing countries, with the Israeli shekel soaring 1.7% to a new high since January 2023 [2] - The Mexican peso strengthened due to a decline in inflation data, while the Brazilian real fell against the dollar as the central bank remained cautious about inflation [2] - Eastern European markets showed varied trends, with Hungary's central bank maintaining rates for the ninth consecutive month and Slovenia issuing its first sustainable development-linked bond [2] Group 3 - Investor sentiment towards emerging markets is improving, with a recent HSBC survey indicating that the proportion of fund managers bullish on emerging market assets reached a two-and-a-half-year high [3] - If the current risk appetite persists, emerging market stocks are expected to continue outperforming, driven by expectations of a shift in Fed policy and easing geopolitical tensions [3] - Analysts emphasize the need to monitor upcoming U.S. non-farm payroll data and developments in the Middle East closely [3]