Core Viewpoint - Gold stocks experienced a significant decline today, with major companies reporting substantial drops in their share prices due to a sharp decrease in spot gold prices [1] Group 1: Company Performance - China Gold International (02099) fell by 8.15%, closing at 115 HKD [1] - Tongguan Gold (00340) decreased by 8.04%, ending at 2.06 HKD [1] - Lingbao Gold (03330) dropped by 6.95%, with a closing price of 15.4 HKD [1] - Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining (600988) (06693) saw a decline of 6.11%, closing at 26.76 HKD [1] Group 2: Market Trends - On September 4, spot gold prices plummeted, briefly falling below the 3520 USD mark, with the latest price reported at 3531.89 USD/ounce, reflecting a daily drop of 0.77% [1] - COMEX gold futures were reported at 3588.3 USD/ounce, showing a decline of over 1% for the day [1] - Baocheng Futures noted an accelerated upward trend in precious metals since last Friday, driven by weakening performance in both domestic and international equity markets, which has increased market demand for safe-haven assets [1] Group 3: Economic Indicators - Current market focus is on the U.S. non-farm payroll data for August, which is expected to have a significant impact on the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions in September [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - This week, Shanghai copper showed a weak performance, with little change in open interest and a decrease in amplitude. The domestic commodity market cooled, putting pressure on the non - ferrous sector. The speech of Fed Chair Powell at the Jackson Hole meeting on August 22 at 22:00 Beijing time is crucial. A dovish stance may be positive for copper prices [5]. - Shanghai aluminum reached the bottom and then rebounded this week, with open interest decreasing during price drops and increasing during price rises. The domestic commodity market cooled, but aluminum prices were stronger than the sector. On Thursday, the social inventory of electrolytic aluminum decreased slightly, and the inventory of downstream aluminum rods continued to decline slowly. With a cooling macro - atmosphere and stronger industrial support, the futures price is expected to be strong [6]. - This week, nickel prices showed a trend of increasing open interest and falling prices, with the main futures price breaking below the 120,000 - yuan mark. The domestic commodity market cooled, and nickel prices were significantly weaker than the sector. High inventories of domestic nickel ore and nickel maintained a weak fundamental situation. With strong downward momentum, nickel prices are expected to run weakly in the short term [7]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Industry Dynamics - **Copper**: This week, the supply - demand weakness in Shandong continued, with stable spot premiums and discounts and low market activity. Downstream demand remained in the off - season, and zero - order purchasing willingness was weak. Holders increased sales to Jiangsu. With no inventory pressure, holders had no intention to cut prices significantly, resulting in a stalemate in spot premiums and discounts [9]. - **Aluminum**: On August 21, the total inventory of electrolytic aluminum in Shanghai and Guangdong bonded areas was 101,900 tons, a decrease of 2,900 tons from last week [10]. - **Nickel**: On August 22, the price of Jinchuan electrolytic nickel in the Shanghai market was 121,950 - 122,050 yuan/ton, down 290 yuan/ton; the price of Russian nickel was 119,750 - 119,950 yuan/ton, down 390 yuan/ton; the price of nickel beans was 121,850 - 121,950 yuan/ton, down 440 yuan/ton [11]. 2. Related Charts - **Copper**: Charts include copper basis, copper monthly spread, domestic visible inventory of electrolytic copper, overseas copper exchange inventory, LME copper cancelled warrant ratio, and SHFE warrant inventory [12][17][21]. - **Aluminum**: Charts include aluminum basis, aluminum monthly spread, domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum, overseas exchange inventory of electrolytic aluminum, alumina inventory, and aluminum rod inventory [25][31][34]. - **Nickel**: Charts include nickel basis, nickel monthly spread, SHFE inventory, LME nickel trend, and nickel ore port inventory [37][43][45].

Group 1 - The A-share market has potential favorable factors, with key attention on the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting and possible interest rate cuts in September, which may lead to a phase of market consolidation when expectations are realized [1] - Important policy windows such as the Fourth Plenary Session in October, the formulation of the 14th Five-Year Plan, and the Central Economic Work Conference at the end of the year could act as catalysts for market breakthroughs [1] - The current market is in an upward channel, but a healthy consolidation phase may occur in the fourth quarter, laying the groundwork for profit growth stories in the following year, with the market expected to reach new heights [1] Group 2 - Investors should closely monitor the dynamic balance of policies and funds to grasp changes in market rhythms [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Reports Copper - Copper pricing has returned to macro trading. With the US economy weakening, copper prices face pressure on the upside under weak economic expectations. However, based on the Sam Rule, the market has not entered a recession narrative, and the downside space is also difficult to open. In the medium - to - long - term, supply - demand contradictions provide bottom support. In the short term, copper prices are expected to fluctuate within a range, with the main contract referring to 78,000 - 80,000 yuan/ton. Pay attention to the US economic fundamentals data in August [1]. Aluminum - For alumina, short - term supply disturbances and long - term overcapacity will continue to compete. It is expected that the main contract price will fluctuate widely between 3,000 - 3,400 yuan/ton this week, and it is recommended to short at high prices in the medium term. - For aluminum, under the pressure of inventory accumulation expectations, weak demand, and macro disturbances, the short - term price is expected to remain under pressure at high levels. The main contract price this week is expected to be between 20,000 - 21,000 yuan/ton. Follow up on inventory changes and marginal demand changes [4]. Aluminum Alloy - The aluminum - aluminum alloy price difference strategy is the main approach. The market is expected to fluctuate widely, with the main contract running between 19,200 - 20,200 yuan/ton. Focus on upstream scrap aluminum supply and import changes [6][7]. Zinc - The basic situation of loose supply and weak demand provides insufficient support for continuous upward movement of zinc prices, but low inventory levels provide price support. In the short term, zinc prices are expected to fluctuate, with the main contract referring to 22,000 - 23,000 yuan/ton [11]. Tin - The US inflation slowdown and stronger interest - rate cut expectations drive tin prices to be relatively strong. If the supply recovers smoothly, a short - at - high strategy is recommended; if the supply recovery is less than expected, tin prices are expected to continue to oscillate at high levels [14]. Nickel - The mid - term supply is expected to remain loose, restricting the upside space for prices. In the short term, the market is expected to adjust within a range, with the main contract referring to 120,000 - 126,000 yuan/ton. Pay attention to changes in macro expectations [16]. Stainless Steel - The sentiment has improved, and cost support has strengthened, but the fundamentals are still restricted by weak spot demand. In the short term, the market is expected to oscillate strongly, with the main contract running between 13,000 - 13,500 yuan/ton. Follow up on policy trends and supply - demand rhythms [18]. Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate prices are expected to fluctuate widely in a relatively strong range, with the main contract referring to 80,000 - 90,000 yuan/ton. One can appropriately pay attention to the positive spread opportunities between near - and far - term contracts [21]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Copper Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic copper price remained at 79,150 yuan/ton, SMM Guangdong 1 electrolytic copper price decreased by 0.02% to 78,935 yuan/ton, and SMM wet - process copper price decreased by 0.03% to 78,975 yuan/ton. - The import profit and loss was - 75 yuan/ton, an increase of 24.95 yuan/ton compared to the previous value [1]. Fundamental Data - In July, electrolytic copper production was 113.49 million tons, an increase of 3.94 million tons compared to the previous month; electrolytic copper imports were 25.31 million tons, an increase of 4.74 million tons compared to the previous month. - The domestic mainstream port copper concentrate inventory increased by 9.80 million tons to 61.96 million tons [1]. Aluminum Price and Spread - SMM A00 aluminum price increased by 0.05% to 20,640 yuan/ton, and the Yangtze River A00 aluminum price increased by 0.10% to 20,650 yuan/ton. - The import profit and loss was - 1,363 yuan/ton, an increase of 182.9 yuan/ton compared to the previous value [4]. Fundamental Data - In July, alumina production was 765.02 million tons, a 5.40% increase compared to the previous month; electrolytic aluminum production was 372.14 million tons, a 3.11% increase compared to the previous month [4]. Aluminum Alloy Price and Spread - SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 prices in various regions remained unchanged. - The 2511 - 2512 monthly spread decreased by 5 yuan/ton to 10 yuan/ton [6]. Fundamental Data - In June, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 62.50 million tons, a 1.63% increase compared to the previous month; the production of primary aluminum alloy ingots was 25.50 million tons, a 2.30% decrease compared to the previous month [6]. Zinc Price and Spread - SMM 0 zinc ingot price decreased by 0.13% to 22,500 yuan/ton. - The import profit and loss was - 1,807 yuan/ton, an increase of 117.55 yuan/ton compared to the previous value [11]. Fundamental Data - In July, refined zinc production was 60.28 million tons, a 3.03% increase compared to the previous month; in June, refined zinc imports were 3.61 million tons, a 34.97% increase compared to the previous month [11]. Tin Spot Price and Basis - SMM 1 tin price increased by 0.97% to 270,600 yuan/ton, and the LME 0 - 3 premium increased by 31.44% to - 47.99 US dollars/ton. - The import profit and loss was - 15,720.30 yuan/ton, a 5.17% increase compared to the previous value [14]. Fundamental Data - In June, tin ore imports were 11,911 tons, an 11.44% decrease compared to the previous month; SMM refined tin production was 13,810 tons, a 6.94% decrease compared to the previous month [14]. Nickel Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price increased by 0.53% to 123,500 yuan/ton, and the 1 Jinchuan nickel price increased by 0.48% to 124,550 yuan/ton. - The futures import profit and loss was - 1,538 yuan/ton, a 2.29% decrease compared to the previous value [16]. Supply, Demand, and Inventory - China's refined nickel production was 31,800 tons, a 10.04% decrease compared to the previous month; refined nickel imports were 19,157 tons, a 116.90% increase compared to the previous month [16]. Stainless Steel Price and Basis - The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) increased by 0.38% to 13,250 yuan/ton. - The 2509 - 2510 monthly spread increased by 5 yuan/ton to - 75 yuan/ton [18]. Fundamental Data - China's 300 - series stainless - steel crude - steel production (43 companies) was 171.33 million tons, a 3.83% decrease compared to the previous month; stainless - steel imports were 10.95 million tons, a 12.48% decrease compared to the previous month [18]. Lithium Carbonate Price and Basis - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price increased by 4.70% to 78,000 yuan/ton, and SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate average price increased by 4.84% to 75,800 yuan/ton. - The 2509 - 2511 monthly spread decreased by 120 yuan/ton to - 440 yuan/ton [21]. Fundamental Data - In July, lithium carbonate production was 81,530 tons, a 4.41% increase compared to the previous month; lithium carbonate demand was 96,275 tons, a 2.62% increase compared to the previous month [21].

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve decided to maintain the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% to 4.5% during the July meeting, despite President Trump's calls for a rate cut [1]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Decision - The Federal Reserve's decision disregarded President Trump's request for a rate cut, indicating significant internal divisions among its members [3]. - The members of the Federal Reserve generally fall into three camps regarding monetary policy: doves advocating for rate cuts and hawks opposing them [3]. Group 2: Internal Disagreements - It is not uncommon for different members to express varying opinions; however, statistical results show that it has been a long time since two or more members voted against each other in the same meeting [5][10]. - The occurrence of two members voting against each other in the same meeting is rare, with the last instance dating back to 1993 [14]. Group 3: Implications of the Vote - The two members who voted against the decision were both appointed by President Trump, highlighting potential political influences within the Federal Reserve [16]. - Following the meeting, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's tone shifted towards a more hawkish stance, leading to a decrease in market expectations for a rate cut in September from 65% to 40% [18]. - The internal complexities and uncertainties within the Federal Reserve have emerged as significant challenges [20].

Group 1 - Copper prices have experienced two waves of fluctuations since the end of June, with a peak of 80,990 yuan/ton and a low of 77,700 yuan/ton by mid-July, influenced by LME copper inventory pressures and policy announcements from the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology [1] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology announced a growth stabilization plan for key industries, including non-ferrous metals, which has positively impacted copper prices, indicating potential for further price increases if detailed policies are released [1] - The Federal Reserve is expected to hold three meetings in the second half of the year, with macroeconomic factors, particularly U.S. tariff policies, likely to influence copper price expectations [1] Group 2 - CSPT decided not to set a reference standard for copper concentrate processing fees for Q3 2025 due to unsustainable market conditions, while new copper mines are expected to contribute to supply in the second half of the year [2] - The construction of container berths at Ningbo Daxie Port may affect the speed of imported scrap copper arrivals, although an increase in anode plate production is anticipated due to higher procurement by refineries [2] - LME copper inventory has accumulated again, alleviating market concerns, while domestic smelting plants are expected to face a maintenance peak from September to November [2] Group 3 - The U.S. copper tariff policy has led to increased volatility in U.S. copper prices without significantly altering global copper inventory structures [3] - The cable industry is currently in a seasonal downturn, with no signs of accelerated production in the copper tube sector, while the automotive market is experiencing a consumption peak [3] - The financial attributes of copper prices are expected to enhance, leading to a return to a fluctuating market pattern [3]

沪金主力盘内高位震荡偏弱，周五（8月1日）开盘价772.50元/克，截至目前最高773.16元/克，最低 768.50元/克，截止发稿报770.72元/克，涨幅0.10%，成交量为189185手，持仓为218768手，日持仓增加 1688手。 上海期货交易所指定交割仓库期货（8月1日）仓单日报显示，黄金期货总计35745千克，今日仓单较上 一日增加102千克。 上海期货交易所黄金期货仓单日报(单位：千克) | 上期所指定交割金库 | 期货 | 增减 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 35745 | 102 | 前美联储理事Larry Meyer在本周的美联储的议息会议结束后写道，鲍威尔讲话的含义是，如果事情继 续像现在这样发展（其中包括重要的一点，即劳动力市场没有恶化），FOMC很有可能在9月份继续按 兵不动。与此同时，鲍威尔听起来并不排斥降息，只要未来数据和前景的演变表明有充分的理由去降 息，FOMC就会采取降息行动。 ...

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights a significant net outflow of over 10 billion yuan from the stock ETF market on the last trading day of July, coinciding with a drop in the A-share market where all three major indices fell by more than 1% [1][2][3] - In July, the stock market experienced substantial gains, leading to profit-taking by investors, which contributed to the net outflow from stock ETFs [2][8] - The total scale of the stock ETF market reached 3.77 trillion yuan, with a reduction of 6.628 billion units in total shares on the day of the market decline [3][4] Group 2 - The net inflow of funds was observed in the Hang Seng Technology Index, which saw a net inflow of 3.305 billion yuan, indicating a preference for this index amidst the overall market downturn [4][5] - Major fund companies, such as E Fund and Huaxia Fund, reported significant net inflows in their ETFs, particularly in the Hang Seng Technology ETFs, despite the overall market decline [7][8] - The outflow of funds was predominantly from broad-based ETFs, with the ChiNext ETF and the Sci-Tech 50 ETF experiencing the largest net outflows of 1.956 billion yuan and 1.765 billion yuan, respectively [9][10] Group 3 - Looking ahead to August, several institutions express optimism for continued upward movement in the A-share market, supported by improving fundamentals and liquidity conditions [12] - The upcoming earnings reports are expected to show marginal improvements in sectors such as technology, consumption, and midstream manufacturing, which may further support market performance [12]

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating Group 2: Core Views - For cotton, the ICE US cotton dropped 0.41% to 67.22 cents per pound on Thursday, and CF509 decreased 1.27% to 13,650 yuan per ton. The main contract's open interest decreased by 26,391 lots to 349,500 lots. The cotton arrival price in Xinjiang was 15,213 yuan per ton, down 130 yuan from the previous day, and the China Cotton Price Index for Grade 3128B was 15,325 yuan per ton, down 145 yuan. The market is expected to be volatile. The 09 contract has strong support at the previous low, and the 01 contract is expected to be weakly stable in the short term [2]. - For sugar, consulting firm StoneX lowered its forecast for sugar production in the 2025/26 season in Brazil's central - south region to 40.16 million tons, a reduction of 1.64 million tons from the May forecast. The expected total cane crush is 598.8 million tons, a 3.7% decrease from the 2024/25 season. Domestic sugar prices are down, and the market is expected to be volatile, with future import pressure gradually emerging [2]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Research Views - **Cotton**: International market: After the macro super - week, the Fed's July FOMC meeting kept rates unchanged. Powell's speech reduced market bets on a September rate cut, and the US dollar index approached 100. The short - term fundamental drivers are limited. Domestic market: The Zhengzhou cotton market continues to shift, with the 09 contract reducing positions and declining, and the 9 - 1 spread widening. The 09 contract's open interest has returned to the average level in recent years, and the net long positions of the main players have decreased. The 09 contract has strong support at the previous low, and the 01 contract is weakly stable in the short term [2]. - **Sugar**: StoneX's report shows a reduction in Brazil's sugar production forecast due to heavy rainfall in June. Domestic sugar prices are down, and the main contract is shifting positions. The market is returning to fundamentals, and future import pressure is emerging [2]. 2. Daily Data Monitoring - **Cotton**: The 9 - 1 spread is - 190, down 40; the main contract basis is 1,675, down 40. The Xinjiang spot price is 15,213 yuan per ton, down 130, and the national spot price is 15,325 yuan per ton, down 145 [3]. - **Sugar**: The 9 - 1 spread is 140, up 10; the main contract basis is 262, down 9. The Nanning spot price is 6,030 yuan per ton, down 20, and the Liuzhou spot price is 6,055 yuan per ton, down 20 [3]. 3. Market Information - On July 31, the number of cotton futures warehouse receipts was 9,055, down 101 from the previous trading day, with 348 valid forecasts. The cotton arrival prices in different regions are provided. The yarn comprehensive load remained flat at 49.3, and the yarn inventory rose to 29.6. The short - fiber cloth comprehensive load remained flat at 47.8, and the inventory rose to 33.5 [4]. - On July 31, the sugar spot prices in Nanning and Liuzhou decreased, and the number of sugar futures warehouse receipts was 19,520, down 226 from the previous trading day, with 0 valid forecasts [4][5]. 4. Chart Analysis - Charts for cotton include the main contract closing price, basis, 9 - 1 spread, 1% tariff quota domestic - foreign spread, warehouse receipts and valid forecasts, and the China Cotton Price Index [7][9][10][11][12]. - Charts for sugar include the main contract closing price, basis, 9 - 1 spread, and warehouse receipts and valid forecasts [14][15][17].

1. Report Overview - Report Date: August 1, 2025 [2] - Reported Industry: Cotton [1] - Research Analysts: Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [3] 2. Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 3. Core Viewpoints - Zhengzhou cotton decreased in price with reduced positions. The spot cotton price index for Grade 328 dropped by 145 yuan/ton to 15,325 yuan/ton. The trading in the pure cotton yarn market slowed down significantly, and the demand for price cuts from downstream increased. The trading in the all - cotton grey fabric market was weak, with fewer inquiries and mainly small and urgent orders. The restart rate of previously reduced - production weaving factories was low, and the operating rate remained sluggish [7]. - The suspension of the US 24% "reciprocal tariffs" and China's counter - measures has been extended to November 11, 2025. As of the week ending July 27, 2025, the good - to - excellent rate of US cotton was 55% (down from 57% the previous week), the budding rate was 80% (up from 71% the previous week), and the boll - setting rate was 44% (up from 33% the previous week). The domestic sown area has increased year - on - year, and the expectation of a bumper harvest remains. The operating rate of inland spinning mills in the industrial downstream decreased, and the finished product inventory did not continue to accumulate. The deterioration rate of the downstream margin slowed down slightly, but the overall demand remained weak. In the short term, the main contract reduced positions and changed months. With no macro - level positive factors, the price declined, and the spread between September and January contracts continued to narrow [8]. 4. Section Summaries 4.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Review**: Zhengzhou cotton decreased in price with reduced positions. The spot cotton price index for Grade 328 dropped by 145 yuan/ton to 15,325 yuan/ton. Different regions and grades of cotton had different basis quotes. The trading in the pure cotton yarn market slowed down, and the demand for price cuts from downstream increased. The trading in the all - cotton grey fabric market was weak, with fewer inquiries and mainly small and urgent orders. The restart rate of previously reduced - production weaving factories was low, and the operating rate remained sluggish [7]. - **Macro and Industry Situation**: The suspension of the US 24% "reciprocal tariffs" and China's counter - measures has been extended to November 11, 2025. As of the week ending July 27, 2025, the good - to - excellent rate of US cotton was 55%, the budding rate was 80%, and the boll - setting rate was 44%. The domestic sown area has increased year - on - year, and the expectation of a bumper harvest remains. The operating rate of inland spinning mills in the industrial downstream decreased, and the finished product inventory did not continue to accumulate. The deterioration rate of the downstream margin slowed down slightly, but the overall demand remained weak. In the short term, the main contract reduced positions and changed months. With no macro - level positive factors, the price declined, and the spread between September and January contracts continued to narrow [8]. 4.2 Industry News - The Federal Reserve's September interest - rate meeting kept the interest rate unchanged at 4.25% - 4.50%. Governors Waller and Bowman voted against and advocated for an interest - rate cut. The Fed modified its description of the economic situation, stating that "economic activity growth has slowed down in the first half of the year" and that "the uncertainty of the economic outlook remains at a high level" [9]. 4.3 Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including those related to China's cotton price index, cotton spot and futures prices, cotton basis changes, contract spreads, cotton commercial and industrial inventories, and exchange rates such as the US dollar against the Chinese yuan and the Indian rupee [17][18][25]. The data sources are Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [12].