Report Title - "Precious Metals Weekly Report - Gold and Silver" [1] Core Viewpoint - The end - time of the military conflict between the US, Israel and Iran determines the price of precious metals. If the conflict doesn't ease, the price of precious metals will be under pressure; if it eases, the price may be supported in the medium - long term. The investment strategy is to wait for the price to fall and then layout long positions, try to go long on the "gold - silver ratio" at low prices, and pay attention to the support and pressure levels of gold and silver in different markets [3] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report Summary by Directory Part 1: US Fiscal and Monetary Policy - US public debt scale is 38.87 trillion dollars, an increase of 103.724 billion dollars from last week. The CBO estimates the fiscal budget deficits in 2025, 2026 and 2027 to be 1.775, 1.853 and 1.887 trillion dollars respectively, and it may reach 3.1 trillion dollars by 2036 due to increased interest expenses [10] - The Fed's bank reserve balance increased, the overnight reverse repurchase agreement scale decreased, and the US Treasury cash account increased. The Treasury's general account cash may reach about 1.025 trillion dollars in April and then decline in May [11] - The OFR financial stress index rose significantly, with credit, stock valuation and volatility increasing month - on - month, and safe assets decreasing [13] - The US secured overnight financing rate (SOFR) is lower than the upper limit of the federal funds target rate. The Fed provided 9 billion dollars of liquidity support through the standing repurchase facility (SRF), making the SOFR fall and the inter - bank market liquidity stable [17] - The Fed's rediscount (seasonal) loans to commercial banks increased (decreased). As of March 4, the rediscount loan was 4.713 billion dollars (increase) and the seasonal loan was 0 dollars (decrease) [19] - US medium - and long - term Treasury yields increased due to inflation concerns caused by the Strait of Hormuz blockade. The medium - and long - term inflation - protected Treasury yields increased slightly, and the implied inflation expectations also increased [21][23][26] - The difference between US long - term and short - term Treasury yields is positive. The difference between 10 - year and 3 - month (2 - year) Treasury yields is 0.46% (0.59%) and increased (remained flat) month - on - month [30] Part 2: US Economic and Employment Performance - The weekly rate of all commercial bank loans and leases in the US is 0.01%. The weekly rates of industrial and commercial loans, residential real estate loans, commercial real estate loans, credit card consumer loans, car purchase consumer loans, other loans and leases are - 0.11%, - 0.01%, - 0.14%, - 0.27%, 0.14% and 0.33% respectively, with the weekly rates of car loans and other loans and leases increasing month - on - month [34] - The weekly annual rate of US Redbook commercial retail sales is 7%, higher than last week, indicating relatively prosperous consumer spending [38] - The US MBA mortgage application activity index increased. The 15 - year (30 - year) mortgage fixed rate decreased (increased). Trump plans to ban institutional investors from buying single - family homes and launch a 200 - billion - dollar mortgage - backed securities purchase plan [41] - As of February 28, the number of initial jobless claims in the US is 213,000, lower than expected but higher than the previous value, and the number of continued jobless claims is 1.868 million, higher than expected and the previous value. The US added - 92,000 non - farm jobs in February, with an unemployment rate of 4.4%, higher than expected and the previous value [44] - The difference between US and German (Japanese) Treasury yields decreased (increased). The euro - US dollar (US dollar - RMB) exchange rate decreased (increased) [47][48] - The volatility of the US S&P 500 index increased, and the volatility of the gold ETF decreased [50] Part 3: Gold - Silver Price Difference and Inventory Situation - The ratio of non - commercial long - short positions in COMEX gold futures decreased. The SPDR gold ETF holdings decreased. The total gold inventory in COMEX and SHFE decreased [56][58][61] - The domestic - foreign gold futures (spot) price difference is at a relatively low level. The gold basis is negative and in a reasonable range. The gold futures near - far contract price difference is negative and in a reasonable range. It is recommended to wait and see for arbitrage opportunities [63][66][67] - The 1 - month lease rate of London silver decreased, indicating a possible easing of the global silver supply shortage [70] - The ratio of non - commercial long - short positions in COMEX silver futures decreased. The iShare silver ETF holdings decreased. The total silver inventory in COMEX, SHFE and SGE decreased [72][74][76] - The domestic silver futures (spot) price is at a relatively high level. The overseas silver basis is negative and in a reasonable range, and the Shanghai silver basis is negative and at a relatively low level. The COMEX silver near - far month contract price difference is negative and in a reasonable range, and the Shanghai silver near - far month contract price difference is positive and at a relatively high level. It is recommended to wait and see for most arbitrage opportunities, and pay attention to short - term light - position long - position opportunities for the Shanghai silver basis [80][83][84] - The "gold - silver ratio" in London and the US (Shanghai) is far below the 10% quantile of the past five years. It is recommended to pay attention to short - term light - position long - position opportunities for the "gold - silver ratio" [87] - The "gold - oil ratio" in London and the US (Shanghai) is equal to the 90% quantile of the past five years. It is recommended to hold short positions in the "gold - oil ratio" cautiously or take profit at low prices [90] - The "gold - copper ratio" in London and Shanghai (US) is higher than the 90% quantile of the past five years. It is recommended to hold long positions in the "gold - copper ratio" cautiously or take profit at high prices [93]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Today, precious metals showed a weak and volatile trend. The main contract of Shanghai Gold closed down 0.08%, the main contract of Shanghai Silver closed up 1.70%, the main contract of platinum closed down 1.43%, and the main contract of palladium closed up 2.18%. The short - term safe - haven situation indicates that trade war risks have eased, and Middle - East geopolitical risks may become normalized. The US employment is weak while inflation pressure remains, and the expectation of interest rate cuts is low, with a strong US dollar index [1]. - The US and Israel's air strikes on Iran and Iran's retaliatory actions have triggered a global chain reaction. The world is facing rising energy costs and the threat of stagflation, and the market is worried that the Middle - East conflict may be long - term [1]. - In February, US employment unexpectedly decreased and the unemployment rate rose. The co - existence of weak employment and high inflation has put the Fed in a dilemma. The Fed's January meeting minutes show that there are significant differences among policymakers regarding the future direction of interest rates. For the first time, the minutes clearly mention discussions about the possibility of interest rate hikes. Currently, the market expects that the Fed's interest rate cuts are nearing an end, and the next cut may be in September. The US dollar index and US Treasury yields have risen significantly [1]. - The Middle - East geopolitical crisis has increased the global recession risk, suppressing the industrial demand prospects of other commodities. Silver is supported by tight supply; the demand for platinum - based catalysts in the platinum hydrogen energy industry is expected to be strong; the short - term demand for palladium remains resilient, but it faces long - term structural pressure from the fuel - vehicle market. The CRB commodity index is weakly volatile, and the appreciation of the RMB is negative for domestic prices. It is expected that precious metals will be weakly volatile in the short term, oscillate at a low level in the medium term, and maintain a long - term upward trend [1]. 3. Summary of Each Section Gold - Strategy: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels [2]. - Price data: Comex gold active contract closed at $5181.30 per ounce, up 1.73% from the previous day and down 2.17% from last week; London gold was at $5127.55 per ounce, up 0.46% from the previous day and down 1.81% from last week; Shanghai Gold main contract closed at 1140 yuan per gram, down 0.07% from the previous day and down 4.78% from last week [2]. - Other data: The net long position of CFTC managed funds increased by 918 lots; the SPDR gold ETF holdings increased by 1.73% from last week [2]. Silver - Strategy: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels [4]. - Price data: Comex silver active contract closed at $84.70 per ounce, up 2.64% from the previous day and down 10.27% from last week; London silver was at $82.34 per ounce, down 2.23% from the previous day and down 8.49% from last week; Shanghai Silver main contract closed at 21547 yuan per kilogram, up 0.07% from the previous day and down 11.80% from last week [4]. - Other data: The net long position of CFTC managed funds decreased by 667 lots; the iShare silver ETF holdings decreased by 0.88% from last week [4]. Platinum - Strategy: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels [6]. - Price data: NYMEX platinum active contract closed at $2178.60 per ounce, up 0.60% from the previous day and up 7.74% from last week; London platinum was at $2138 per ounce, down 0.33% from the previous day and up 7.17% from last week; the main platinum contract on the GZFE closed at 551.85 yuan per gram, up 5.36% from the previous day and up 1.25% from last week [6]. - Other data: The net long position of CFTC managed funds increased by 1447 lots [6]. Palladium - Strategy: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels [7]. - Price data: NYMEX palladium active contract closed at $1809.50 per ounce, up 2.15% from the previous day and up 5.85% from last week; London palladium was at $1727 per ounce, up 3.71% from the previous day and up 3.91% from last week; the main palladium contract on the GZFE closed at 438.45 yuan per gram, up 5.19% from the previous day and up 0.07% from last week [7]. - Other data: The net short position of CFTC managed funds remained unchanged at - 1096 lots [7]. Key Fundamental Data of Precious Metals - Fed data: The upper limit of the federal funds target rate is 3.75%, down 0.25 percentage points; the discount rate is 3.75%, down 0.25 percentage points; the reserve balance interest rate (IORB) is 3.65%, down 0.25 percentage points; the Fed's total assets are $66794.27 billion, up 0.00% from last week [8]. - US economic data: GDP (annualized year - on - year) is 2.50%, up 0.10 percentage points; the unemployment rate is 4.40%, up 0.10 percentage points; non - farm payrolls decreased by 9.20 million, down 2.18 million from last month [8][10]. - Inflation data: CPI (year - on - year) is 2.40%, down 0.30 percentage points; core CPI (year - on - year) is 2.50%, down 0.10 percentage points; PCE price index (year - on - year) is 2.90%, up 0.08 percentage points; core PCE price index (year - on - year) is 3.00%, up 0.17 percentage points [8]. Fed's Latest Interest Rate Expectations - According to the CME FedWatch tool, the market expects that the probability of the Fed keeping the interest rate in the range of 375 - 400 basis points in March 2026 is 95.3%, and this probability gradually decreases over time, while the probability of lower interest rate ranges gradually increases [12].

Core Insights - The article discusses the impact of the recent military conflict in the Middle East, particularly the U.S. and Israeli airstrikes on Iran, which have led to a surge in oil and shipping prices, causing significant volatility in risk assets [6][11] - It raises questions about the global and U.S. "re-inflation" pressures and the potential risks of Federal Reserve tightening in response to these developments [6][11] Group 1: Impact of Middle East Conflict - The recent escalation in the Middle East has resulted in a sharp increase in global oil prices, with Brent crude rising above $90 per barrel, and a rebound in U.S. Treasury yields, leading to a revision of interest rate cut expectations from two to one for the year [7][11] - The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has severely disrupted oil and gas supplies, affecting food imports for Gulf countries, as 26% of global shipping volume and 20% of global trade volume of liquefied natural gas pass through this strait [7][11] - Countries heavily reliant on oil imports from the Strait, such as Japan and South Korea, face significant energy supply challenges, with over 50% of their oil consumption dependent on this trade route [7][39] Group 2: U.S. Inflation Dynamics - Oil price increases have a measurable impact on U.S. inflation, with estimates suggesting that a 10% rise in oil prices could increase the overall Consumer Price Index (CPI) by approximately 24-28 basis points [8][78] - The transmission of oil price changes to core CPI is less pronounced, with historical data indicating that a 10% increase in oil prices may only raise core inflation by 4-7 basis points [8][78] - The article notes that the energy component of the CPI is expected to account for 6.4% by 2025, indicating that while oil price fluctuations affect overall inflation, their impact on core inflation is more limited [8][53] Group 3: Federal Reserve Policy Implications - The article suggests that the Federal Reserve's monetary policy may not be significantly affected by short-term oil price shocks, especially if these shocks are temporary [9][111] - However, if high oil prices persist, it could lead to increased uncertainty regarding future interest rate cuts, as seen in the prolonged high oil prices during 2021-2022 [9][111] - The current economic context differs from previous crises, with less fiscal expansion and fewer excess savings among households, which may influence the Fed's response to inflationary pressures [9][111]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - After the wave of de - leveraging trading of risk funds triggered by macro shocks gradually subsided, precious metal prices stabilized and rebounded in February. The Middle East shock leading to soaring oil prices may raise inflation pressure again, and the uncertainty of the Fed's monetary policy outlook increases. The adjustment of precious metals is not over, and the market will maintain high volatility through high - level oscillations. Gold price is expected to be stronger than silver price, and the gold - silver ratio will continue to be upwardly revised [4][50]. - Platinum and palladium prices fluctuate between macro pressure and supply crisis, and it is difficult to have an independent market in the short term. If the US imposes high tariffs on Russian palladium and the EU bans imports of Russian platinum - group metals and copper, the platinum - palladium market pattern will be reshaped. In the medium - to - long term, the price increase of platinum and palladium is optimistic, and investors can go long after the adjustment [4][50]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Precious Metal Market Review - In January, precious metal prices plummeted due to the hawkish expectations triggered by Trump's nomination of Wash as the Fed chairman candidate. In February, prices were in shock consolidation and recovered part of the decline. Driven by factors such as the escalation of the US - Iran situation, the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations, and weak US economic data, precious metal prices rebounded. The monthly increase of COMEX gold futures main contract was 7.92%, and that of COMEX silver futures main contract was 10.72%. The supply - side risk events of platinum and palladium supported their prices, with the monthly increase of NYMEX platinum futures main contract at 9.09% and that of palladium futures main contract at 5.51% [9]. - On February 28, the US and Israel attacked Iran, and on March 1, Iran reported that the Supreme Leader Khamenei was killed. The escalation of the Middle - East conflict had a huge impact on oil prices but limited impact on precious metal prices. The conflict continues, and the development of the Middle - East situation needs to be continuously monitored [10]. 3.2 Macro Analysis 3.2.1 Intensified Middle - East Geopolitical Conflicts and US Tariff Disturbances - On February 28, the US and Israel attacked Iran, resulting in the death of Iran's Supreme Leader Khamenei. Iran launched large - scale military retaliation and announced the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. The conflict has lasted for more than a week and shows an escalating trend, which may lead to an increase in global inflation pressure. The US - Iran conflict has a long - term and complex nature, and the negotiation in Geneva in February 2026 was the fuse [15][16]. - On February 20, the US Supreme Court ruled that Trump's large - scale tariffs were illegal, and then Trump announced a new round of 10% global tariffs for 150 days, threatening to raise the rate to 15%. This tariff policy has caused concerns about the escalation of the trade war and the process of de - dollarization [16]. 3.2.2 US Economic Slowdown, Persistent Inflation Pressure, Disappointing Employment, and Increased Uncertainty of Fed Policy - In the fourth quarter of 2025, the initial value of the US real GDP slowed to 1.4%, far lower than the expected 2.8%, and was the slowest growth rate since the tariff shock in the first quarter of 2025. The slowdown was mainly due to the decline in government spending, exports, and the slowdown of consumer spending growth. The government shutdown in the fourth quarter dragged down the GDP by about 1 percentage point [17]. - In December 2025, the US core PCE index increased by 3% year - on - year and 0.4% month - on - month, reaching the largest increase in nearly a year. The recent escalation of the US - Iran conflict has added variables to inflation. The February 2026 non - farm payrolls data was disappointing, with a decrease of 92,000 non - farm employment people, and the unemployment rate rose to 4.4%. After excluding disturbances, the US labor market continued the mid - term trend of mild cooling [18]. - Due to the marginal weakening of the labor market and the rising geopolitical risks, the uncertainty of the Fed's monetary policy has increased. The Fed is unlikely to relax monetary policy in advance before confirming the downward trend of inflation. It is expected that there will be no interest - rate cuts during Powell's tenure, and there may be 1 - 2 interest - rate cuts of 25BP in the second half of the year when Wash becomes the Fed chairman [19]. 3.3 Precious Metal Market Analysis 3.3.1 Gold and Silver Market Analysis - The gold - silver ratio on COMEX quickly repaired. It reached a low of 46 at the end of January, fluctuated greatly in February, and is expected to continue to rise [23]. - The global gold - buying rhythm is differentiated. In 2025, global official institutions increased their gold holdings by 863 tons. China's central bank has continuously increased its gold reserves, while the central banks of Poland and Russia have plans or actions to sell gold reserves. In the context of de - globalization, central banks' demand for gold is expected to continue to increase [26][27]. - The holdings of gold and silver ETFs decreased. As of March 6, the gold holdings of the world's largest gold ETF - SPDR decreased by 16 tons compared with the high at the end of January, and the silver holdings of the world's largest silver ETF - SPDR decreased by 608 tons compared with a month ago [29]. - The risk of silver delivery squeeze has been weakened. Although the silver inventory in New York and Shanghai is still decreasing, forward - looking indicators do not show a signal of intensifying contradictions. The delivery pressure is not expected to intensify in March, but there is a possibility of an increase in May. Domestic exchanges have adjusted the position and delivery rules of silver futures to suppress the risk of squeeze [33][34]. 3.3.2 Platinum and Palladium Market Analysis - The price ratios of platinum and palladium to gold and silver are still at low levels. Platinum and palladium prices rebounded in February, with platinum performing better than palladium. The price ratios of platinum and palladium to gold and silver are in the historical low - level range, and their potential for price increase is optimistic [39]. - The US platinum and palladium inventories have decreased but are still at a high level. The inventories of NYMEX platinum and palladium increased significantly in 2025 and continued to increase in January 2026, with a slight decrease in February. The spot lease rates of platinum and palladium are still at a relatively high level, indicating a tight spot market [43]. - The US plans to impose high tariffs on Russian palladium, and if implemented, it will reshape the market pattern. The US plans to impose an anti - dumping tax of nearly 133% on Russian palladium, and the EU is considering an import ban on Russian platinum - group metals and copper. These measures will impact the global platinum - palladium supply chain and market pattern [47][49]. 3.4 Market Outlook and Operation Strategies - The adjustment of precious metals is not over, and the market will maintain high volatility through high - level oscillations. Gold price is expected to be stronger than silver price, and the gold - silver ratio will continue to be upwardly revised [50]. - Platinum and palladium prices are fluctuating between macro pressure and supply crisis, and it is difficult to have an independent market in the short term. In the medium - to - long term, the price increase of platinum and palladium is optimistic, and investors can go long after the adjustment [50].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the document. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Market Performance**: Precious metal prices adjusted this week, with silver's decline significantly greater than gold's, despite a slight rebound on Friday. COMEX and SHFE gold and silver positions further declined, and silver inventories continued to fall. The holdings of the world's largest gold ETF - SPDR decreased by 28 tons to 1,073.32 tons, and the holdings of the world's largest silver ETF - iShares decreased by 231 tons to 15,762 tons [2]. - **Impact Factors**: The recent precious metal market transactions are concentrated on expectations of the Fed's monetary policy, hedging and inflation under geopolitical situations, uncertainties in trade policies, as well as economic stagflation and financial market risks. The weakness of precious metals this week was due to the Middle East geopolitical situation pushing up oil prices, further weakening the expectations of interest rate cuts by the Fed and European and American countries, leading to higher US dollar and US Treasury yields, thus suppressing precious metal prices. Additionally, the liquidity problem under the general decline of risk - assets also dragged down precious metal prices. However, precious metals showed a rebound trend on Friday due to concerns about economic recession rising after oil prices reached $90, increased financial market risks, a redemption wave in private credit of giants such as BlackRock, prominent shadow banking risks, a further decline in global stock markets, a rebound in the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations on Friday, a decline in the US dollar index, and the return of safe - haven buying demand for precious metals. Data shows that the US February non - farm payrolls report released on Friday evening showed that the unemployment rate unexpectedly rose, the non - farm payrolls increase turned negative, and the final values of non - farm payrolls increases in December and January were both revised down, increasing the risk of stagflation in the US and the global economy [3]. - **Long - term Logic**: In the medium term, gold and silver prices will mainly benefit from the game between the Fed's policies and the political environment during the mid - term election time window. The current low approval rating of Trump indicates that he is likely to continuously pursue two goals in the first half of the year: to promote the Fed to implement loose monetary policies and to improve his approval rating before the mid - term elections at the end of the year by strengthening the US hegemonic position and obtaining external interests. The expectations of the Fed's loose monetary policies, the weakening of the central bank's independence, or the fermentation of various uncertainties such as external geopolitics, international trade, and global financial markets will continuously support the increase in investment demand for gold and silver from the perspectives of monetary policy easing and safe - haven demand, thus being beneficial to the continued rise of gold and silver prices in the first half of the year. In the longer term, the credibility of the global US - dollar - dominated credit currency system continues to decline, and core issues such as the unsustainability of the US fiscal situation and the loosening of the US dollar hegemony are becoming increasingly prominent, accelerating the global de - dollarization process. This trend promotes central banks around the world to continuously increase their gold reserves, triggers the competition for gold pricing power and the reconstruction of the global gold market system, and lays a solid foundation for the long - term rise of gold and silver [5]. - **Trading Strategy**: Strategically, the report still maintains a long - term bullish view on precious metals and regards corrections as opportunities for long - term position building. The support level for London gold is at 5,000, and the strong support is around the 60 - day moving average of 4,800. The support level for London silver is at 80, and the strong support is in the 70 - 72 area [6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Chapter 1: Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations - **Core Contradictions** - **Market Review**: Precious metal prices adjusted this week, with silver's decline significantly greater than gold's. COMEX and SHFE gold and silver positions further declined, and silver inventories continued to fall. The holdings of major gold and silver ETFs decreased [2]. - **Impact Factors Analysis**: The precious metal market was affected by multiple factors, including the Fed's monetary policy expectations, geopolitical situations, trade policies, economic stagflation, and financial market risks. The rise of the US dollar and US Treasury yields due to geopolitical factors suppressed precious metal prices, but concerns about economic recession and financial risks on Friday led to a rebound in precious metal prices [3]. - **Long - term Trading Logic**: In the medium term, gold and silver prices are affected by the Fed's policies and the political environment during the mid - term election time. In the long term, the de - dollarization process and central bank gold - buying behavior support the rise of gold and silver prices [5]. - **Trading - type Strategy Recommendations** - **Trend Judgment**: Maintain a long - term bullish view on precious metals and regard corrections as opportunities for long - term position building. Provide support levels for London gold and silver [6]. Chapter 2: Market Information - **This Week's Event Concerns**: Enter the quiet period of Fed officials before the March 19 FOMC meeting. Continue to focus on the progress of the Middle East situation, the recovery of the Strait of Hormuz, the Iranian supreme leader election, the spread of the US private equity redemption wave, and the pressure on the credit market caused by discount selling risks [15]. - **Last Week and This Week's Data Concerns**: Provide a large amount of US and Chinese economic data, including PMI, non - farm payrolls, unemployment rate, CPI, etc. [14][16] Chapter 3: Futures and Price Data - **International Precious Metal Market**: Present the latest prices, weekly changes, and weekly change rates of international precious metals such as London gold and silver, COMEX gold and silver, and the positions and inventories of related ETFs and CFTC [17]. - **Domestic Precious Metal Market**: Show the latest prices, weekly changes, and weekly change rates of domestic precious metals such as SHFE gold and silver, and the inventories of related exchanges [17]. - **US Financial Asset Performance**: Provide the latest prices, weekly changes, and weekly change rates of US financial assets such as the US dollar index, US Treasury yields, stock indices, etc. [18]. - **Domestic Financial Market**: Present the latest prices, weekly changes, and weekly change rates of domestic financial assets such as the US dollar - RMB exchange rate, stock indices, and Treasury yields [19]. Chapter 4: Macroeconomic Information - **FOMC Post - meeting Statement**: Compare and analyze the FOMC post - meeting statements in 2026/1/29 and 2025/12/11, including the assessment of the economic situation, policy goals, policy decisions, and voting situations [34]. - **Economic Forecast Table (December FOMC)**: Provide economic forecast data such as real GDP growth rate, unemployment rate, PCE inflation rate, and federal funds rate from 2025 to 2028 and in the long - run [36]. - **US CPI and Other Data**: Analyze the composition and changes of the US CPI, and present data on the US CPI and core CPI, PCE price index, non - farm payrolls, etc. [42][44] Chapter 5: Sensitive Demand and Valuation - **Sensitive Demand - ETF Investment Demand**: Show the long - term positions of gold and silver ETFs, including SPDR, SLV, and Chinese top 3 gold ETFs and Hua'an Gold ETF [54][56]. - **Valuation Anchoring - Related Assets**: Analyze the price relationships between precious metals and related assets such as the COMEX gold - silver ratio, gold and silver lease rates, gold and the US dollar index, gold and US Treasury real yields, etc. [58][60][62] - **Global Major Exchange Inventories**: Present the inventory data of precious metals in major global exchanges such as LBMA, COMEX, SHFE, and SGX [77][79][80]

Group 1 - The article discusses the significant impact of the recent Middle East conflict on global oil prices and the potential inflationary pressures in the U.S. economy, particularly focusing on the implications for monetary policy and risk assets [2][3][4] - The conflict has led to a spike in Brent crude oil prices, exceeding $90 per barrel, and a shift in market sentiment from risk aversion to inflation trading, resulting in a notable decline in risk asset prices [2][3][4] - The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has severely disrupted oil and gas supplies, affecting not only energy exports but also food imports for Gulf countries, with 26% of global shipping volume and 20% of global trade volume for liquefied natural gas passing through this route [2][3][4] Group 2 - The article highlights that the U.S. inflation is sensitive to oil price fluctuations, estimating that a 10% increase in oil prices could raise the overall Consumer Price Index (CPI) by approximately 24-28 basis points [3][4][75] - The historical relationship indicates that oil price shocks can have varying impacts on inflation, with the potential for oil prices to rise to $140 per barrel if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed indefinitely [4][87] - The Federal Reserve's monetary policy may be influenced by these inflationary pressures, although the short-term impact is expected to be limited if high oil prices do not persist [6][108] Group 3 - The article identifies that Asian countries, particularly Japan and South Korea, are heavily reliant on oil imports from the Strait of Hormuz, with over 50% of their oil consumption dependent on this trade route [19][36][44] - Emerging economies with high energy CPI weights and low energy self-sufficiency, such as Poland, Turkey, and Thailand, are likely to face greater inflationary risks due to rising energy prices [36][44] - In contrast, China's energy supply structure is less dependent on oil and gas, which may provide it with greater resilience against the impacts of the Strait's closure, as oil imports from this region account for about 25% of its total demand [44][113]

Group 1 - The article highlights a significant decline in U.S. non-farm employment, with a reduction of 92,000 jobs in February, leading to an increase in the unemployment rate to 4.4% [88] - The U.S. retail sales experienced a month-on-month decline of 0.2% in January, marking the first negative growth since October of the previous year [93] - The ISM non-manufacturing PMI for February reached 56.1, indicating strong expansion in the service sector, while the manufacturing PMI stood at 52.4, showing steady growth in manufacturing activity [90] Group 2 - The article notes a sharp increase in oil prices, with Brent crude rising by 27.9% to $92.7 per barrel, driven by escalating geopolitical tensions [46] - The U.S. Treasury General Account (TGA) balance decreased to $847 billion as of March 4, 2026, indicating a significant drop from early February [64] - The cumulative fiscal deficit for the U.S. in 2026 reached $393.3 billion by February 28, down from $491 billion in the same period last year [70]

Group 1: Middle East Situation and Economic Impact - The recent escalation in the Middle East, particularly the airstrikes on Iran, has led to a surge in global oil prices, with Brent crude rising above $90 per barrel[1] - The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has significantly impacted oil and natural gas supply, affecting food imports for Gulf countries[1] - Over 26% of global shipping volume and 20% of global trade in liquefied natural gas pass through the Strait, with 89% of oil and 86% of LNG destined for Asia, primarily China, India, South Korea, and Japan[1] Group 2: Inflation and U.S. Economic Indicators - Oil price increases of 10% are estimated to raise the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) by approximately 24-28 basis points, with a direct impact on overall inflation[3] - In 2025, energy accounted for 6.4% of the U.S. CPI, indicating that fluctuations in oil prices can significantly influence inflation metrics[3] - The U.S. non-farm employment decreased by 92,000 in February, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.4%, indicating potential economic weakness[6] Group 3: Federal Reserve Policy and Market Reactions - The Federal Reserve's interest rate cut expectations have been adjusted from two cuts to one in September due to rising inflation pressures from oil prices[1] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield has increased by 18 basis points, reflecting market reactions to the geopolitical tensions and rising oil prices[5] - The U.S. fiscal deficit for 2026 reached $393.3 billion, lower than the previous year's $491 billion, indicating a slight improvement in fiscal management[5]

Employment Data Overview - In February 2026, the U.S. non-farm employment decreased by 92,000, and the unemployment rate rose by 0.1 percentage points to 4.4%[3] - The labor force participation rate fell to 62.0%, down from 62.1% in January[3][10] Employment Sector Analysis - Among 14 major sectors, 9 experienced job losses, with the most significant declines in the private service sector, which lost 61,000 jobs, and the goods-producing sector, which lost 25,000 jobs[4][11] - The healthcare and leisure/hospitality sectors saw job reductions of 34,000 and 27,000, respectively, primarily due to temporary factors such as medical strikes and severe winter storms[4][13] Wage Trends - Private sector hourly wages increased by 0.4% month-over-month, surpassing market expectations of 0.3%[3][9] - Year-over-year wage growth in the private sector was recorded at 3.8%[9] Economic Outlook - The employment decline is viewed as potentially temporary, with other employment indicators such as ADP employment and ISM manufacturing PMI showing stronger-than-expected results[5][17] - The Federal Reserve is likely to maintain a wait-and-see approach in March, influenced by high oil prices and weak employment data, with market expectations for only one rate cut in September 2026[5][19] Risks and Considerations - Key risks include escalating geopolitical conflicts, a more significant-than-expected slowdown in the U.S. economy, and the Federal Reserve adopting a more hawkish stance than anticipated[5][19]

Employment Data Overview - In February, the U.S. added -92,000 non-farm jobs, significantly below the expected 59,000[2] - The unemployment rate rose to 4.4%, higher than the anticipated 4.3%[2] Structural Factors Impacting Employment - Structural issues include rising tariff policy uncertainty, government sector contraction, and geopolitical tensions driving oil prices up[4] - The impact of AI on labor markets is evident, with companies like Oracle considering layoffs in the thousands due to automation[4] Non-Structural Factors Affecting Employment - Short-term shocks included a loss of 34,000 jobs in education and healthcare, primarily due to labor disputes in California and Hawaii[5] - Seasonal factors also contributed, particularly affecting outdoor industries like construction during winter[5] Monetary Policy Implications - The Fed faces a complex trade-off between growth and inflation, with market expectations for rate cuts likely in the second half of the year[6] - Rising oil prices, nearing $90 per barrel, could complicate the Fed's ability to lower rates due to inflation concerns[6] Market Reactions - Following the employment report, gold prices fluctuated, and U.S. stock indices opened down over 1%[7] - The market showed mixed reactions, with U.S. Treasury yields initially dropping before rising again, indicating uncertainty[6] Employment Trends by Sector - Job losses were seen across both goods-producing (-25,000) and service-providing sectors (-61,000), with significant declines in education and healthcare[8] - The healthcare sector's decline was notably influenced by strikes related to wage disputes[8] Unemployment Rate Dynamics - The increase in the unemployment rate was driven by both rising unemployment numbers and a decrease in the labor force participation rate[14] - The youth unemployment rate (ages 16-24) rose to 9.5%, significantly higher than other age groups[16] Wage Growth Analysis - Average wage growth remained moderate, with notable increases in sectors like information (5.53%) and utilities (5.10%), while healthcare saw lower growth (2.81%)[21] - Overall wage growth did not indicate significant inflationary pressure in the short term[21] Future Outlook - The interplay of weak employment data and rising energy prices suggests a volatile market environment ahead[23] - The duration and impact of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East will be critical in shaping future economic conditions[23]