1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Macro Outlook**: Overseas markets are in a risk - on mode despite a weak US economic fundamentals and escalating tariff threats. The effectiveness of the August tariff and the upcoming US CPI data along with Fed personnel changes will impact market sentiment. China's exports in July were strong but face risks of decline. For asset allocation, a defensive stance is recommended, focusing on the policy and data inflection points in late August [7]. - **Asset Allocation**: Domestically, reduce allocation to equities and maintain allocation to commodities (emphasizing infrastructure and export - related sectors) and gold. Overseas, reduce allocation to US stocks and maintain allocation to US bonds. Slightly increase allocation to RMB funds and reduce allocation to US dollar money - market funds [7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Macro Essentials - **Overseas Macro**: The overseas market is in a risk - on state, but the August tariff implementation and upcoming US CPI data, along with Fed personnel changes, will test market sentiment. Trump's nomination of a "trusted person" as a temporary director has raised concerns about the Fed's independence, and the expected difference in US CPI data will affect market risk appetite [7]. - **Domestic Macro**: China's exports in July increased by 7.2% year - on - year, mainly due to strong non - US market demand offsetting the decline in exports to the US. However, this may be due to pre - tariff rush shipments, and future exports face risks of decline and restricted re - export trade [7]. - **Asset Views**: Domestically, reduce allocation to equities, maintain allocation to commodities and gold. Overseas, reduce allocation to US stocks, maintain allocation to US bonds, slightly increase allocation to RMB funds, and reduce allocation to US dollar money - market funds. Overall, maintain a defensive layout and focus on the policy and data inflection points in late August [7]. 3.2 Viewpoint Highlights 3.2.1 Financial Sector - **Stock Index Futures**: After event resolution, the crowding of funds is released, but there is a lack of incremental funds [8]. - **Stock Index Options**: The collar strategy strengthens the volatility structure, and attention is paid to the upward movement of volatility [8]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The market continues to digest the information from the Politburo meeting, and attention is paid to factors such as unexpected tariffs, supply, and monetary easing [8]. 3.2.2 Precious Metals - **Gold/Silver**: Precious metals are oscillating and strengthening, and attention is paid to Trump's tariff policy and the Fed's monetary policy [8]. 3.2.3 Shipping - **Container Shipping to Europe**: Attention is paid to the game between peak - season expectations and the implementation of price increases, as well as tariff policies and shipping company pricing strategies [8]. 3.2.4 Black Building Materials - **Steel**: Inventory continues to accumulate, and the off - season characteristics persist. Attention is paid to the progress of special bond issuance, steel exports, and molten iron production [8]. - **Iron Ore**: Molten iron production slightly decreases, and port inventory slightly accumulates. Attention is paid to overseas mine production and shipping, domestic molten iron production, weather, port inventory changes, and policy dynamics [8]. - **Coke**: There is a renewed willingness to raise prices, and the market is oscillating. Attention is paid to steel mill production, coking costs, and macro sentiment [8]. - **Coking Coal**: Supply disruptions continue, and the market is oscillating at a high level. Attention is paid to steel mill production, coal mine safety inspections, and macro sentiment [8]. - **Silicon Iron**: The bullish sentiment is digested, and the market trend is weak. Attention is paid to raw material costs and steel procurement [8]. - **Manganese Silicon**: Market sentiment cools, and futures prices are oscillating weakly. Attention is paid to cost prices and overseas quotes [8]. - **Glass**: Speculation in small - sized glass in Shahe has led to a slight improvement in production and sales. Attention is paid to spot production and sales [8]. - **Soda Ash**: Production continues to increase, and the market is oscillating. Attention is paid to soda ash inventory [8]. 3.2.5 Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials - **Copper**: The risk of overseas recession has increased, and copper prices are under pressure. Attention is paid to supply disruptions, unexpected domestic policies, less - than - expected dovishness of the Fed, and less - than - expected domestic demand recovery [8]. - **Alumina**: Warehouse receipts have increased again, and alumina prices are oscillating under pressure. Attention is paid to unexpected delays in ore复产 and unexpected increases in electrolytic aluminum复产 [8]. - **Aluminum**: Market sentiment is fluctuating, and aluminum prices continue to rise. Attention is paid to macro risks, supply disruptions, and less - than - expected demand [8]. - **Zinc**: The prices of black series have rebounded again, and zinc prices are oscillating. Attention is paid to risks of macro - direction change and unexpected increases in zinc ore supply [8]. - **Lead**: Supply disruptions in recycled lead have led to a slight rebound in lead prices. Attention is paid to supply - side disruptions and slowdown in battery exports [8]. - **Nickel**: LME nickel inventories are high, and nickel prices are oscillating widely. Attention is paid to unexpected macro and geopolitical changes, Indonesian policies, and less - than - expected supply release [8]. - **Stainless Steel**: Nickel - iron prices continue to rise, and stainless steel futures are oscillating upwards. Attention is paid to Indonesian policies and unexpected increases in demand [8]. - **Tin**: The ore supply is still tight, and tin prices are oscillating. Attention is paid to the expected复产 in Wau and changes in demand improvement expectations [8]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Market sentiment is fluctuating, and silicon prices are oscillating. Attention is paid to unexpected supply - side production cuts and unexpected increases in photovoltaic installations [8]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The market direction is unclear, and lithium carbonate prices are oscillating. Attention is paid to less - than - expected demand, supply disruptions, and new technological breakthroughs [8]. 3.2.6 Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Geopolitical expectations are fluctuating, and attention is paid to the risk of Russian oil. OPEC + production policy and Middle - East geopolitical situation are the focus [10]. - **LPG**: Supply pressure continues, and the cost side dominates the rhythm. Attention is paid to the cost progress of crude oil and overseas propane [10]. - **Asphalt**: It has broken through the important support level of 3500, and futures prices are moving in the direction of least resistance. Attention is paid to unexpected demand [10]. - **High - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The contradiction between strong cracking and weak premium persists. Attention is paid to crude oil and natural gas prices [10]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Futures prices follow crude oil and oscillate weakly. Attention is paid to crude oil and natural gas prices [10]. - **Methanol**: Supported by coal but suppressed by olefins, methanol is oscillating. Attention is paid to macro - energy and upstream and downstream device dynamics [10]. - **Urea**: Domestic supply and demand cannot provide strong support, and export - driven is less than expected. Attention is paid to export policy trends and elimination of production capacity [10]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Coal is strong and oil is weak, and supply pressure increases. Attention is paid to frequent changes in overseas devices affecting port arrivals [10]. - **PX**: Cost support is insufficient, confidence is under pressure, and its fundamental driving force is limited. Attention is paid to significant fluctuations in crude oil, macro - changes, and unexpected PTA device maintenance [10]. - **PTA**: Scheduled maintenance cannot boost processing fees, and prices are still suppressed by costs. Attention is paid to wide - range cost fluctuations, unexpected device maintenance, and unexpected polyester production reduction [10]. - **Short - Fiber**: Downstream demand has slightly improved, and attention is paid to the sustainability of inventory reduction. Attention is paid to the purchasing rhythm and production start - up of downstream yarn mills [10]. - **Bottle Chips**: Overall demand is sluggish, and the repair height of processing fees is limited. Attention is paid to unexpected production increase of bottle - chip enterprises and a surge in overseas export orders [10]. - **Propylene**: It mainly follows market fluctuations and oscillates in the short term. Attention is paid to oil prices and domestic macro - situation [10]. - **PP**: Fundamental support is limited, and PP oscillates weakly. Attention is paid to oil prices and domestic and overseas macro - situation [10]. - **Plastic**: Upstream and mid - stream inventories are accumulating, and plastic oscillates weakly. Attention is paid to oil prices and domestic and overseas macro - situation [10]. - **Styrene**: Commodity sentiment has improved, and attention is paid to the implementation of policy details. Attention is paid to oil prices, macro - policies, and device dynamics [10]. - **PVC**: There is cost support, and the futures market oscillates. Attention is paid to expectations, costs, and supply [10]. - **Caustic Soda**: Spot prices have stabilized, and caustic soda oscillates temporarily. Attention is paid to market sentiment, production start - up, and demand [10]. - **Oils and Fats**: It oscillated and adjusted yesterday, waiting for further information guidance. Attention is paid to US soybean weather and Malaysian palm oil production and demand data [10]. - **Protein Meal**: There is concern about the supply shortage in the fourth quarter. Attention is paid to US soybean weather, domestic demand, macro - situation, and China - US and China - Canada trade wars [10]. - **Corn/Starch**: The number of incoming vehicles has returned to a low level, and futures have stabilized and rebounded. Attention is paid to less - than - expected demand, macro - situation, and weather [10]. - **Pigs**: Spot prices are still weak, and expectations support the futures market. Attention is paid to breeding sentiment, epidemics, and policies [10]. 3.2.7 Agriculture - **Rubber**: Market sentiment is okay, and rubber prices are rising slowly. Attention is paid to production - area weather, raw material prices, and macro - changes [10]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: It oscillates within a range. Attention is paid to significant fluctuations in crude oil [10]. - **Pulp**: Futures are running stably, and attention is paid to low - buying opportunities in the far - month contracts. Attention is paid to macro - economic changes and fluctuations in US - dollar quotes [10]. - **Cotton**: Low inventory supports cotton prices, and attention is paid to marginal changes in demand. Attention is paid to demand and inventory [10]. - **Sugar**: Supply pressure is increasing marginally, and sugar prices are under pressure and weakening. Attention is paid to imports [10]. - **Logs**: It oscillates within a narrow range. Attention is paid to shipping volume and dispatch volume [10].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - Trump's key appointments to the Fed's理事 positions will pressure the Fed into a further easing cycle, which is a continuous positive factor for gold and silver prices [1]. - The market has increased its expectations for the Fed's subsequent loose monetary policy. The Fed is likely to implement further loose monetary policies due to Trump's personnel appointments and significantly lower - than - expected employment data. It is recommended to buy precious metals on dips. The reference operating range for the main contract of Shanghai Gold is 777 - 801 yuan/gram, and for the main contract of Shanghai Silver is 9081 - 9520 yuan/kilogram [1][2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Quotes - **Domestic Futures**: Shanghai Gold (Au) rose 0.12% to 786.80 yuan/gram, and Shanghai Silver (Ag) rose 0.02% to 9279.00 yuan/kilogram. Au(T + D) closed at 783.27 yuan/gram, up 0.16%; Ag(T + D) closed at 9249.00 yuan/kilogram, up 0.27% [1][3]. - **International Futures**: COMEX gold fell 0.82% to 3462.70 dollars/ounce, and COMEX silver fell 0.12% to 38.50 dollars/ounce. London gold rose 0.31% to 3394.15 dollars/ounce, and London silver fell 0.22% to 38.29 dollars/ounce [1][3]. - **ETF Holdings**: SPDR Gold ETF holdings increased by 0.06% to 959.64 tons, and SLV Silver ETF holdings decreased by 0.80% to 14990.80 tons [3]. - **Other Market Indicators**: The 10 - year US Treasury yield was 4.27%, and the US dollar index was 98.22. The Dow Jones Index rose 0.47%, the S&P 500 rose 0.78%, and the Nasdaq Index rose 0.98% [1][3]. Market Outlook - Trump's appointment of Milan as a Fed理事 and the potential selection of Waller as the new Fed chairman will increase Trump's influence on the Fed's monetary policy, putting pressure on the Fed to cut interest rates. Fed理事 Bowman supports interest rate cuts in the remaining three policy meetings this year [1]. - The market expects an 89.3% probability of a 25 - basis - point interest rate cut by the Fed in September and a 53.5% probability of a further rate cut in October [2]. Key Data Summary of Gold and Silver - **Gold**: COMEX gold's closing price (active contract) was 3458.20 dollars/ounce, down 0.70%; trading volume increased by 28.40% to 31.25 million lots; open interest increased by 0.99% to 44.96 million lots; inventory decreased by 0.22% to 1200 tons [5]. - **Silver**: COMEX silver's closing price (active contract) was 38.51 dollars/ounce, down 0.05%; open interest decreased by 5.32% to 16.13 million lots; inventory increased by 0.07% to 15754 tons [5]. Price and Volume Charts - Multiple charts show the relationship between the prices, trading volumes, and open interests of COMEX gold, Shanghai gold, COMEX silver, and Shanghai silver, as well as their historical trends and near - far month structures [7][9][11]

当地时间8月10日，美国财政部长贝森特表示，他正牵头物色美国联邦储备委员会主席鲍威尔的继任人选。 △美国财政部长贝森特（资料图） 贝森特表示，新任美联储主席应具备审视整个机构的能力，赢得市场信任、能分析复杂经济数据，并注重前瞻性思维而非依赖 历史数据。 近期，美国总统特朗普连续发声，要求美联储委员会进一步降息，并以下一任美联储主席人选的话题对现任主席鲍威尔施压。 鲍威尔回应称，美联储货币政策必须"完全非政治"，重申美联储仍在观察美国关税带来的影响，而后再进一步决策。 点亮"在看"，你最好看！ (*ノ 3 卜) 鲍威尔的任期应于2026年5月结束，他在特朗普第一任期内被提名为美联储主席。美国总统通常会在现任美联储主席任期最后几 个月才宣布下一任提名人选。 来源 央视新闻客户端 编辑 佘诗婕 —— / 好文推荐 / —— "对等关税"2.0来袭 越南股市屡创新高 美印友谊终结？印度市场大跌 刘卫东的双面人生 美国军工"定时炸弹"被引爆 黑芝麻"改嫁"广西国资 "中国是可借鉴的现实范本" "上海的二次元入口在这儿！" 李嘉诚甩货400套大湾区房源 ...

今日早间，现货黄金与比特币双双低开，COMEX黄金跌幅近1%。消息面上，美国财长贝森特8月10日 表示，正牵头物色美联储主席鲍威尔的继任者，称新任主席需具备审视机构、赢得市场信任、分析复杂 数据及前瞻性思维等能力。 近期，美国总统特朗普持续施压美联储降息，并借下一任主席人选话题向鲍威尔施压。鲍威尔则重申， 美联储货币政策"完全非政治"，需观察关税影响后再决策。鲍威尔任期至2026年5月，通常美国总统会 在其任期最后几个月宣布继任者。 中东局势方面，特朗普与以色列总理内塔尼亚胡通话，讨论以方"接管加沙地带剩余哈马斯据点以结束 军事行动"的计划。8日，以色列安全内阁已批准该计划，以军准备接管加沙城。此举引发多国和国际组 织谴责，敦促以方停止"战争计划"。 伊朗外交部10日发表声明，强烈谴责以色列接管加沙城计划，称这是以色列对巴勒斯坦人实施种族灭绝 和消灭巴勒斯坦计划的一部分。声明强调，国际社会有责任制止种族灭绝，并向加沙被压迫人民提供援 助。伊朗要求以色列立即停止对加沙的攻击，无条件向该地区运送人道主义援助，保证救济组织行动自 由，并支持地区和国际社会实现全面停火的努力。 来源：金融界 ...

Group 1 - The U.S. Treasury Secretary is leading the search for a successor to Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, emphasizing the need for a candidate who can analyze complex economic data and gain market trust [3] - President Trump has been pressuring the Federal Reserve for further interest rate cuts, using the topic of the next Fed chair to influence Powell [3] - Powell's term is set to end in May 2026, and typically, the President announces the next nominee in the final months of the current chair's term [3] Group 2 - Trump discussed with Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu the plan to take control of remaining Hamas strongholds in Gaza, which has drawn international condemnation [5] - The Israeli security cabinet has approved Netanyahu's plan to defeat Hamas, with military preparations underway to take over Gaza City [5] - Iran's Foreign Ministry condemned the Israeli plan, calling it part of a genocide against Palestinians and urging for humanitarian aid to be allowed into Gaza [5]

Group 1 - The A-share market experienced a rebound driven by trading funds, with a notable increase in volatility expectations and a return to a "dumbbell" style focusing on dividends and small-cap stocks [1][2] - The margin trading balance reached a nearly 10-year high of 2 trillion yuan, indicating significant liquidity support for the market [2][3] - The number of public fund reports has shown signs of recovery, suggesting a potential shift of household savings into equity funds [2][3] Group 2 - The "anti-involution" policy is beginning to show results, with July's PPI year-on-year expected to rebound from its low point, although the extent of recovery will depend on policy effectiveness [3][4] - The macroeconomic indicators, such as improved profit margins for industrial enterprises and reduced accounts receivable turnover days, reflect positive impacts from the "anti-involution" measures [3][4] - Certain sectors, including wind power, automotive, logistics, and aquaculture, are experiencing a recovery in sentiment, indicating a broader improvement in economic conditions [3][4] Group 3 - External risks remain, particularly regarding tariff policies and Federal Reserve monetary policy, which could affect market sentiment and investment strategies [4][5] - The market is approaching a period of concentrated interim report disclosures, which may lead to increased volatility, but the downside risk is considered limited [5][6] - Tactical investment strategies are recommended to focus on sectors with improving sentiment and potential for rebound, such as storage, software, and certain chemical products [5][6]

Group 1 - The international gold price on August 10, 2025, closed at $3397.13 per ounce, showing a slight increase of $1.50 (0.04%) from the previous day, with a trading range of $3377.43 to $3408.71 [2] - The international silver price also rose, closing at $38.30 per ounce, up 0.16% (an increase of $0.06), while platinum and palladium prices fell by $13.52 (1.00%) and $34.30 (2.93%) respectively, indicating a complex differentiation within the precious metals market [2] - Domestic gold prices from major brands showed significant variation, with Lao Feng Xiang leading at 1017 CNY per gram, while prices from other brands like Chow Tai Fook and Chow Tai Sheng were around 1015 CNY per gram, contrasting sharply with the lower price of 793 CNY per gram in the Shenzhen Shui Bei market [3] Group 2 - The Shanghai Gold Exchange reported a gold price of 783.00 CNY per gram, down 0.27 CNY (0.034%) from the previous day, with fluctuations between 780.00 CNY and 784.70 CNY [4] - Historical data on gold recycling prices (purity 99.9%) showed stability, fluctuating between 753 CNY and 770 CNY per gram, although actual recycling prices may vary due to market fluctuations and regional differences [7] - Future gold price trends are influenced by multiple factors, including the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, geopolitical risks, global economic conditions, and investor sentiment, with potential long-term price increases projected to exceed $4000 or even $5000 per ounce, despite possible short-term technical corrections [8]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Treasury Secretary is leading the search for the successor to Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, emphasizing the need for a candidate who can analyze complex economic data and gain market trust [1] Group 1 - The new Federal Reserve Chairman should possess the ability to review the entire institution and focus on forward-thinking rather than relying solely on historical data [1] - President Trump has been vocal about his desire for further interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve and is using the topic of the next chairman to pressure Powell [1] - Powell reiterated that the Federal Reserve's monetary policy must remain "completely non-political" and stated that the Fed is still assessing the impact of U.S. tariffs before making further decisions [1] Group 2 - Powell's term is set to end in May 2026, and typically, the U.S. President announces the next nominee in the final months of the current chairman's term [1]

来源：齐鲁晚报 近日,美国联邦储备委员会(美联储)再次顶住来自总统特朗普的降息压力、连续第五次决定维持利率不变 后,这个机构最近出现了令人瞩目的人事变动:阿德里亚娜·库格勒突然宣布辞去理事职务,重返乔治敦大 学任教。对此,特朗普称将在这几天确定一名候选人,填补美联储理事会出现的空缺。他还表示,已把美联 储主席鲍威尔的继任人选范围缩小到了4人。 主笔 王晓莹 辞职时机微妙 库格勒没有说明离职原因,只是在辞职信中写道:"能在美联储理事会任职是我一生的荣耀,尤其是在这一 关键时期,有幸参与实现我们的双重使命——降低物价的同时保持强劲而有韧性的劳动力市场,我感到非 常荣幸。" 现年56岁的库格勒出生在美国,由于父母工作的原因,她在哥伦比亚长大,她的父亲担任过世界银行的经济 学家。在哥伦比亚的生活让她见到了那里的贫困、童工、流浪人群、基础设施落后等问题,这促使她在 上大学时选择了政治学和经济学两个方向。不过,因为数学好,她最终选择了经济学。从麦吉尔大学本科 毕业后,她又在1997年获得加州大学伯克利分校的经济学博士学位,而她的导师是前美联储主席、美国前 财长珍妮特·耶伦的丈夫乔治·阿克尔洛夫,他曾在2001年获得诺贝尔 ...

Group 1 - The U.S. labor market showed signs of slowing down, with non-farm payrolls increasing by only 73,000 in July, below the market expectation of 104,000, and a downward revision of nearly 260,000 jobs in the previous two months, resulting in an average increase of only 35,000 jobs over the past three months, the worst since the end of the pandemic [1] - The unemployment rate in July rose by 0.1 percentage points to 4.2%, in line with expectations, while average hourly earnings increased by 3.9% year-on-year, surpassing both June's increase and the expected 3.8% [1] - The ISM manufacturing index fell to 48 in July from 49 in June, indicating further contraction, contrary to expectations of a rebound to 49.5 [3] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% to 4.5% during the July meeting, with Chairman Powell emphasizing that the current moderate tightening policy remains appropriate despite risks in the labor market [3] - Market expectations indicate an 87% probability of two rate cuts by the end of the year, following a hawkish stance from the Federal Reserve [4] - Investment strategies suggest focusing on reasonably valued quality stocks that would benefit from rate cuts and diversifying stock portfolios into non-U.S. markets, while maintaining a neutral duration in bond portfolios to manage interest rate market volatility [4]