Summary of the Conference Call on Japan's Fiscal Position Industry Overview - **Industry**: Japan's Fiscal and Economic Situation - **Company**: Morgan Stanley Asia Limited Key Points and Arguments 1. **Exaggerated Concerns**: The market's worries regarding Japan's fiscal health are considered overstated, with the current fiscal situation being one of the healthiest in the past 28 years, based on cash flow statistics [7][14][19]. 2. **Fiscal Deficit Reduction**: Japan's fiscal deficit has significantly narrowed to only 0.5% of GDP, the lowest level since 1998, compared to the median level of approximately 3% for developed economies [7][14][19]. 3. **Debt-to-GDP Ratio**: The government debt-to-GDP ratio has decreased by 22 percentage points compared to pre-pandemic levels, indicating improved fiscal health [7][19]. 4. **Primary Balance Forecast**: The primary balance is expected to improve to -0.1% of GDP for FY2026, significantly better than the levels required for debt stability [9][35][32]. 5. **Interest Payments**: Interest payments on government debt are projected to remain low, currently around 1.5% of GDP, and are expected to rise gradually to about 2% by FY2028 [31][28]. 6. **Sustainable Debt Structure**: Japan is noted for having one of the most sustainable debt structures among developed markets, with a favorable "r-g" dynamic (the difference between real interest rates and real GDP growth) supporting debt sustainability [9][45][50]. 7. **Tax Revenue Growth**: Strong nominal GDP growth post-pandemic has led to increased tax revenues, aiding in the reduction of the fiscal deficit [24][20]. 8. **Unused Budget Funds**: A significant portion of the government budget remains unspent, with over 2% of GDP in unused budget expenditures for FY2024, suggesting that reported fiscal expansions may be overstated [24][20]. 9. **Inflation and Interest Rates**: Core inflation in Japan is low at 1.5%, significantly below the U.S. core PCE of 2.8%, indicating that aggressive interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan may not be necessary [26][25]. 10. **Comparative Fiscal Health**: Japan's fiscal deficit is among the narrowest in developed economies, with projections indicating that even with a slight increase in the deficit to 1.9% of GDP in 2026, Japan will still maintain a favorable position compared to peers [19][14][36]. Other Important Insights - **Market Reactions**: Recent political developments, such as proposed tax cuts, have heightened market concerns about Japan's fiscal outlook, leading to rising yields on Japanese government bonds (JGBs) [7][5]. - **Long-term Projections**: The Cabinet Office's long-term fiscal forecasts indicate a stable outlook for Japan's fiscal health, with expectations of continued improvement in the primary balance and debt ratios [31][33]. - **Global Context**: Japan's fiscal improvements are contrasted with rising debt levels in other developed economies, particularly the U.S., where the debt-to-GDP ratio has been increasing [38][39]. This summary encapsulates the key insights from the conference call regarding Japan's fiscal position, highlighting the overall positive outlook despite market concerns.

Group 1 - In 2025, the national general public budget revenue reached 21.6 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.7%, while expenditure was 28.74 trillion yuan, an increase of 1% [1] - The overall fiscal revenue in China remained stable, with tax revenue steadily rebounding and key areas of expenditure being well-supported [1][2] - Tax revenue grew by 0.8% in 2025, reflecting a steady upward trend in the economy, while non-tax revenue fell by 11.3% due to a high base from 2024 [1][2] Group 2 - Major tax categories such as value-added tax, consumption tax, corporate income tax, and individual income tax grew by 3.4%, 2%, 1%, and 11.5% respectively, accounting for about 81% of total tax revenue [2] - The growth in consumption tax was primarily driven by increases in cigarette and refined oil taxes, while corporate income tax growth was supported by the manufacturing sector [2] - The securities transaction stamp duty reached 203.5 billion yuan, a significant increase of 57.8%, indicating a strong correlation with market activity [2][3] Group 3 - National general public budget expenditure increased by 1%, with social security and employment, technology, education, and health spending rising by 6.7%, 4.8%, 3.2%, and 5.7% respectively, together accounting for about 42% of total expenditure [3] - Fiscal funds showed a clear trend of investing in human capital, with over 30 million infants receiving childcare subsidies [3] - In 2025, the total expenditure on special bonds and other financial instruments reached 6.19 trillion yuan, an increase of 1.69 trillion yuan or 37.6%, enhancing economic development momentum [3][4]

专题：特朗普正式提名沃什出任美联储主席 美国总统唐纳德・特朗普宣布，将提名凯文・沃什接替杰罗姆・鲍威尔出任美联储主席。特朗普此前因 美联储未按其要求降息而对该机构展开持续抨击，此番提名令这位前美联储理事执掌这一核心金融机 构。 现年55岁的沃什目前担任斯坦福大学胡佛研究所客座研究员，是共和党经济圈的资深人士。此番获提名 执掌全球最核心的央行，其任命料将得到共和党政策制定者的认可。沃什曾供职于摩根士丹利，担任投 行分析师，还曾任小布什总统的经济顾问；自特朗普首次执政以来，他便一直是白宫高层经济职位的热 门人选。 特朗普周五在社交媒体上发文称："我认识凯文已有多年，我确信他将成为美联储史上最杰出的主席之 一，甚至可能是最优秀的那位。除此之外，他形象气质俱佳，绝对不会让大家失望。" 此次美联储主席的其他潜在人选包括贝莱德高管里克・里德、特朗普长期经济顾问凯文・哈塞特，以及 现任美联储理事克里斯托弗・沃勒。主导此次人选遴选的财政部长斯科特・贝森特也曾是候选人之一， 后主动退出竞争。 提名沃什是特朗普第二任期内最具重要意义的经济政策人事任命，也标志着特朗普为加强对美联储影响 力的努力迎来阶段性结果。但在未来数月，沃什的 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the recent sell-off of Japanese bonds and the resulting global volatility reflect market concerns over the massive government debt supply, exacerbated by the Bank of Japan's quantitative tightening [1][2] - Fitch's chief economist Brian Coulton emphasized that the market is being forced to absorb both the Bank of Japan's QT and the financing needs arising from the national budget deficit, which is causing unease among investors [1] - The turmoil in the Japanese bond market has been compared to a "lightweight Liz Truss moment," indicating fears of significant fiscal expansion ahead of the upcoming elections [1] Group 2 - Coulton noted that the actual scale of the Bank of Japan's quantitative tightening is approximately 6% to 7% of GDP annually, significantly higher than that of the Federal Reserve or the Bank of England [2] - The market's reaction to the potential slight expansion of the fiscal deficit indicates a heightened sensitivity to supply issues, which is a shift from previous years when the focus was primarily on long-term policy and inflation [2] - There is an increased level of concern regarding fiscal issues in major government bond markets compared to the past, suggesting a change in market dynamics [2]

（原标题：巴西2025年财政赤字预计占国内生产总值的0.48%） 巴西媒体报道，巴西财政部部长阿达对媒体表示，2025年初级财政赤字将达到GDP的0.48%。此次 赤字统计新纳入司法判决债务，体现财政透明度上升，有助于纠正财政扭曲现象。若扣除司法判决债 务，财政赤字水平符合年初制定的"零赤字"财政目标。阿达表示，目前公共债务的主要压力来源是高位 利率。 ...

智通财经APP获悉，随着美国政治环境的高度动荡引发市场涌向看空对冲，美元交易员正以创纪录的成本押注美元将出现更深度的下跌。能够从美元走弱中 获利的短期期权溢价已扩大至自2011年有数据以来的最高水平。看空情绪并不局限于短端——投资者对美元长期前景的悲观程度，至少已达到2025年5月以 来的最高水平。尽管美元指数周二小幅走高，但其此前连续三个交易日的跌幅，为去年4月美国关税动荡以来之最。若跌势如期权价格所暗示的那样重新展 开，美元可能跌至四年来的最低水平。 丹斯克银行高级分析师Jesper Fjarstedt表示："不可预测的美国政治局势毫无疑问对美元不利。过去一周的发展，促使市场重新计入政治风险溢价。" 今年以来，美元在十国集团(G10)货币中表现垫底，这表明投资者看待这一传统避险资产的方式正在发生转变。对美国财政赤字上升、制裁风险和贸易摩擦 的担忧，以及投资者加速向黄金和其他储备资产分散配置，正共同对美元构成压力。 美元这轮走势背后不仅仅是情绪变化，还有大量资金流动。周一，通过美国存管信托与清算公司(DTCC)的交易量达到历史第二高，仅次于2025年4月3日那 次抛售。在四日滚动平均口径下，市场参与度已升至 ...

证券研究报告 | 2026年01月26日 美元债双周报（26 年第 4 周） 弱于大市 地缘风险与财政隐忧下美债利率升至半年新高 美国 11 月 PCE 物价指数符合预期，通胀温和且支出稳健。1 月 22 日美国经 济分析局发布的 11 月 PCE 报告显示，PCE 物价指数同比上涨 2.8%，环 比上涨 0.2%，均与市场预期一致，反映通胀温和运行。剔除食品和能源 后的核心 PCE 同比亦上涨 2.8%，环比增长 0.2%，同样符合预期。报告 同时指出，美国个人支出在 11 月保持稳健增长，显示消费者支出依然 是经济增长的重要支撑，不过储蓄率进一步下滑，这或对中长期消费动 力构成一定压力。核心 PCE 维持在较高水平但未显著超预期，表明通胀 压力虽有所缓解但仍高于美联储 2%的长期目标。 2025 年第三季度美国实际 GDP 终值年化季环比增速上修至 4.4%，略超预期， 达两年最快。增长由出口增强、库存变化负面影响减小及消费韧性驱动， 表明经济扩张动力强。同期核心 PCE 终值维持在 2.9%，高于美联储 2% 目标，通胀具粘性。强劲增长与稳健就业使市场预计美联储 1 月将按兵 不动。CME 美联储观察工 ...

证券研究报告 | 2026年01月26日 美元债双周报（26 年第 4 周） 弱于大市 地缘风险与财政隐忧下美债利率升至半年新高 美国 11 月 PCE 物价指数符合预期，通胀温和且支出稳健。1 月 22 日美国经 济分析局发布的 11 月 PCE 报告显示，PCE 物价指数同比上涨 2.8%，环 比上涨 0.2%，均与市场预期一致，反映通胀温和运行。剔除食品和能源 后的核心 PCE 同比亦上涨 2.8%，环比增长 0.2%，同样符合预期。报告 同时指出，美国个人支出在 11 月保持稳健增长，显示消费者支出依然 是经济增长的重要支撑，不过储蓄率进一步下滑，这或对中长期消费动 力构成一定压力。核心 PCE 维持在较高水平但未显著超预期，表明通胀 压力虽有所缓解但仍高于美联储 2%的长期目标。 风险提示：美国经济和货币、财政、贸易政策的不确定性。 核心观点 行业研究·海外市场专题 美股 弱于大市·维持 | 证券分析师：王学恒 | 证券分析师：徐祯霆 | | --- | --- | | 010-88005382 | 010-88005494 | | wangxueh@guosen.com.cn | xuzhenti ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the US dollar bond market is "Underperform" [1][6] Core Viewpoints - The US economy shows signs of growth, with the Q3 2025 real GDP annualized quarterly growth rate revised up to 4.4%, driven by export growth, reduced negative impacts of inventory changes, and consumer resilience. However, inflation remains sticky, with the core PCE at 2.9%, above the Fed's 2% target. The market expects the Fed to keep rates unchanged in January, with the first rate cut likely in June - July [2] - Geopolitical risks and fiscal concerns have led to an increase in US Treasury yields. The 10 - year yield has exceeded the high since August last year, reaching above 4.3%. The long - term concern lies in the US fiscal situation, with a budget deficit to GDP ratio of about 6% [4] - European pension institutions' consideration of selling US Treasuries has caused market fluctuations, but the actual possibility of large - scale selling is low. The market is currently in a multi - factor game, and it is recommended to adopt a "short - duration core + steepening satellite" configuration [3][4] Summary by Directory US Macroeconomic and Liquidity - The November PCE price index in the US was in line with expectations, with the PCE price index rising 2.8% year - on - year and 0.2% month - on - month. Core PCE also rose 2.8% year - on - year and 0.2% month - on - month. Personal spending remained robust in November, but the savings rate declined, which may pressure long - term consumption [1] - The Q3 2025 real GDP annualized quarterly growth rate was revised up to 4.4%, the fastest in two years. The core PCE remained at 2.9%, above the Fed's target. The market expects the Fed to keep rates unchanged in January, with a nearly 97% probability, and the first rate cut likely in June - July [2] Exchange Rate - No specific content in the provided text directly elaborates on exchange rate analysis, but it is likely related to the impact of US Treasury yield changes on the US dollar index and other non - US currencies [53] Chinese - Issued US Dollar Bonds - The text shows various charts related to the returns, yields, and spreads of Chinese - issued US dollar bonds since 2023, including breakdowns by level and industry [64] Rating Actions - In the past two weeks, the three major international rating agencies took 11 rating actions on Chinese - issued US dollar bond issuers, including 2 rating revocations, 2 upgrades, 2 downgrades, and 5 initial ratings [76]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The GDP of China in 2025 was 1,401,879 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 5.0%, achieving the target set at the beginning of the year. In the fourth quarter, China's GDP increased by 1.2% quarter-on-quarter. In December, the growth rates of fixed - asset investment and total retail sales of consumer goods were lower than market expectations, while the export growth rate and the actual year - on - year growth of industrial added value above a designated size exceeded market expectations. The year - on - year growth rate of the service industry production index in December rebounded by 0.8 percentage points compared with November. The real estate sales volume and housing prices continued to decline year - on - year in December last year and in the first ten - day period of January this year. The Ministry of Finance stated that in 2026, the fiscal deficit, total debt, and total expenditure will be maintained at a necessary level. The central bank governor said there is still room for reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts this year. The Treasury bond futures may fluctuate in the short term, and the impact of the stock index should be continuously monitored [1][2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - On Friday, the main contracts of Treasury bond futures opened roughly flat, with a slight upward movement and then a decline throughout the day. As of the close, the main contract of the 30 - year Treasury bond futures (TL2603) rose 0.07%, the 10 - year (T2603) rose 0.03%, the 5 - year (TF2603) rose 0.04%, and the 2 - year (TS2603) rose 0.01% [1] Important Information - Open market: On Friday, the central bank conducted 125 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with 86.7 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing on the same day, resulting in a net injection of 38.3 billion yuan [1] - Money market: On Friday, the overnight interest rate in the inter - bank money market declined slightly. The weighted average of DR001 throughout the day was 1.40%, compared with 1.42% in the previous trading day; the weighted average of DR007 throughout the day was 1.49%, compared with 1.51% in the previous trading day [1] - Cash bond market: On Friday, the closing yields of inter - bank Treasury bonds mostly declined compared with the previous trading day. The yield to maturity of the 2 - year Treasury bond decreased by 0.75 basis points to 1.40%, the 5 - year decreased by 1.82 basis points to 1.60%, the 10 - year decreased by 1.27 basis points to 1.83%, and the 30 - year decreased by 2.30 basis points to 2.29% [1] - On January 23, the Bank of Japan announced that it would maintain the policy interest rate at 0.75%, in line with expectations [1] - On January 23, it was announced that the preliminary value of the US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI in January was 51.9 (expected 52, previous value in December was 51.8), the preliminary value of the US S&P Global Services PMI in January was 52.5 (expected 52.9, previous value in December was 52.5, previous value in the same period last year was 52.9), and the preliminary value of the US S&P Global Composite PMI in January was 52.8 (expected 53, previous value in December was 52.7, previous value in the same period last year was 52.7) [1] - On January 23, it was announced that the preliminary value of the eurozone manufacturing PMI in January 2026 rose to 49.4, up 0.6 percentage points from 48.8 in December, higher than the market expectation of 49.1. The preliminary value of the eurozone services PMI in January was 51.9 (expected 52.6, previous value was 52.4), and the preliminary value of the eurozone composite PMI in January was 51.5 (expected 51.9, previous value was 51.5) [1] Market Logic - The GDP of China in 2025 was 1,401,879 billion yuan, with a year - on - year growth of 5.0%, achieving the target set at the beginning of the year. In the fourth quarter, China's GDP increased by 1.2% quarter - on - quarter. In December, the growth rates of fixed - asset investment and total retail sales of consumer goods were lower than market expectations, while the export growth rate and the actual year - on - year growth of industrial added value above a designated size exceeded market expectations. The year - on - year growth rate of the service industry production index in December rebounded by 0.8 percentage points compared with November. The real estate sales volume and housing prices continued to decline year - on - year in December last year and in the first ten - day period of January this year. The Ministry of Finance stated that in 2026, the fiscal deficit, total debt, and total expenditure will be maintained at a necessary level. The central bank governor said there is still room for reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts this year. On Friday, the Wind All - A Index opened slightly higher, fluctuated upwards throughout the day, and closed 0.97% higher than the previous trading day, with a trading volume of 3.12 trillion yuan, an increase from 2.72 trillion yuan in the previous trading day. The stock market rose on Friday, while the main contracts of Treasury bond futures still rose slightly. Treasury bond futures may fluctuate in the short term, and the impact of the stock index should be continuously monitored [1][2] Trading Strategy - Traders should conduct band operations [2]