1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The precious metals market continues to run strongly. The end of the US government shutdown is expected to provide a liquidity buffer for the market, and the slowdown of US economic data boosts the expectation of interest rate cuts, which enhances the monetary attribute of precious metals. However, the optimistic expectation of the government shutdown may weaken market risk - aversion demand and form resistance to the upward movement of gold prices. The weakening trend of the US dollar is expected to boost the precious metals trend in stages. Technically, the upward momentum of gold prices is increasing, with clear resistance and support levels [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Prices**: The closing price of the Shanghai gold main contract is 948.88 yuan/gram, up 12.9 yuan; the closing price of the Shanghai silver main contract is 11,880 yuan/kilogram, up 161 yuan [2]. - **Positions**: The main - contract positions of Shanghai gold are 130,346 hands, down 6,311 hands; those of Shanghai silver are 233,585 hands, down 9,632 hands. The net positions of the top 20 in the Shanghai gold main contract are 110,361 hands, down 161 hands; those of Shanghai silver are 119,859 hands, up 17,973 hands [2]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The warehouse receipt quantity of gold is 89,616 kilograms, unchanged; that of silver is 591,884 kilograms, down 18,094 kilograms [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Prices**: The spot price of gold on the Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network is 950.3 yuan/gram, up 22.2 yuan; the spot price of silver is 11,903 yuan/kilogram, up 296 yuan [2]. - **Basis**: The basis of the Shanghai gold main contract is 1.42 yuan/gram, up 9.3 yuan; the basis of the Shanghai silver main contract is 23 yuan/kilogram, up 135 yuan [2]. 3.3 Supply and Demand Situation - **ETF Holdings**: The gold ETF holdings are 1,042.06 tons, unchanged; the silver ETF holdings are 15,088.63 tons, unchanged [2]. - **CFTC Non - commercial Net Positions**: The gold CFTC non - commercial net positions are 266,749 contracts, up 339 contracts; the silver CTFC non - commercial net positions are 52,276 contracts, up 738 contracts [2]. - **Supply and Demand Quantities**: The total quarterly supply and demand of gold are both 1,313.01 tons, with an increase of 54.84 tons in supply and 54.83 tons in demand. The total annual supply of silver is 987.8 million troy ounces, down 21.4 million troy ounces; the total annual global demand for silver is 1,195 million ounces, down 47.4 million ounces [2]. 3.4 Option Market - **Historical Volatility**: The 20 - day historical volatility of gold is 30.84%, down 1.14%; the 40 - day historical volatility of gold is 26.95%, up 0.19% [2]. - **Implied Volatility**: The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for gold is 21.98%, up 1.52%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for gold is 21.96%, up 1.49% [2]. 3.5 Industry News - China's gold consumption in the first three quarters of this year was 682.73 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 7.95%. The increase in domestic gold ETF positions was 79.015 tons, a year - on - year increase of 164.03%, and the position at the end of September was 193.749 tons [2]. - Fed Governor Milan supports further interest rate cuts to prevent the weakening of the US economy in the future and advocates a faster pace than the traditional 25 - basis - point cut. San Francisco Fed President Daly said the US economy may be experiencing a decline in demand, but tariff - related inflation is currently under control, and the Fed should discuss whether to continue to cut interest rates on the basis of the 50 - basis - point cut this year with an "open mind" [2]. - According to CME's "FedWatch", the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in December is 64.1%, and the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 35.9%. By January next year, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point cut is 54.1%, the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 23.2%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point cut is 22.7% [2]. 3.6 Technical Analysis - The daily RSI shows that the upward momentum of gold prices is increasing. The key resistance level for the London gold price is between 4,130 - 4,160 US dollars, and the strong support level is at 4,000 US dollars. The Shanghai gold 2512 contract is concerned about the range of 900 - 960 yuan/gram; the Shanghai silver 2512 contract is concerned about the range of 11,000 - 12,000 yuan/kilogram [2]

the first 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 ITG国贸期货 贵金属数据日报 | | | | 国贸期货研究院 | | 投资咨询号: Z0013700 | | | 2025/11/11 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 贵金属与新能源研究中心 白素娜 | | 人业资格号:F3023916 | | | | | | 伦敦金现 | 伦敦银现 | COMEX黄金 | COMEX白银 | AU2512 AG2512 | | AU (T+D) | AG (T+D) | | 日期 内外盘金 银15点价 | (美元/盎司) | (美元/盎司) | (美元/盎司) | (美元/盎司) | (元/克) | (元/千克) | (元/克) | (元/千克) | | 2025/11/10 格跟踪 | 4075. 52 | 49. 53 | 4084. 70 | 49.58 | 935.98 | 11719.00 | 933.23 | 11707.00 | | (本表数 | | | | | | | | | | 2025/1 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report [1] Core Viewpoints - The expected cash outflow from the US Treasury General Account, the increased probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in December, the provision of liquidity by the Fed through the Standing Repurchase Facility (SRP), geopolitical risks, and the continuous gold - buying by global central banks may support precious metal prices [1] Summary by Relevant Contents Precious Metal Market Data - **Futures and Spot Data**: For gold, on 2025 - 11 - 11, the Shanghai gold futures closing price was 933.02 yuan/gram, and the trading volume was 51,204. The spot Shanghai gold T + D closing price was 917.64 yuan/gram, and the trading volume was 37,088. For silver, the Shanghai silver futures closing price was 11,719 yuan/ten - gram, and the trading volume was 1,015,910. The spot Shanghai silver T + D closing price was 11,480 yuan/ten - gram, and the trading volume was 619,304. In the international market, the COMEX gold futures closing price was 4,013.40 dollars/ounce, and the trading volume was 242,570. The London gold spot price was 4,090.25 dollars/ounce. The COMEX silver futures closing price was 48.23 dollars/ounce, and the trading volume was 16,720. The London silver spot price was 50.04 dollars/ounce [1] - **Inventory and Position Data**: Gold inventory in Shanghai was 89,616 (in ten - grams), and the position of the Shanghai gold T + D was 254,730. The inventory of COMEX gold was 37,729,455.44 (in troy ounces), and the position was 300,451. Silver inventory in Shanghai was 609,978 (in ten - grams), and the position of the Shanghai silver T + D was 4,236,766. The inventory of COMEX silver was 479,104,695.08 (in troy ounces), and the position was 96,354 [1] - **Price Difference and Basis Data**: The spread between near - month and far - month gold futures was 1.10, and the basis (spot - futures) was 0.10. For silver, the spread between near - month and far - month futures was 31.00, and the basis was 11.00. In the international market, the spread between near - month and far - month gold futures was - 15.20, and the basis was - 33.15. The spread between near - month and far - month silver futures was - 0.73, and the basis was 0.71 [1] Important Information - The US government shutdown may continue for several more days. After the Senate passed a procedural vote on the temporary appropriation bill, the House's voting time is undetermined. Trump - appointed Fed governor Milan believes that the government shutdown will not affect his view of the US economy and advocates a 50 - basis - point interest rate cut in December [1] Investment Strategy - It is recommended to mainly lay out long positions when prices fall. For London gold, pay attention to the support level around 3,580 - 3,860 and the resistance level around 4,180 - 4,384. For Shanghai gold, the support level is around 830 - 860, and the resistance level is around 950 - 1,000. For London silver, the support level is around 39 - 42, and the resistance level is around 50 - 55. For Shanghai silver, the support level is around 9,400 - 10,000, and the resistance level is around 11,600 - 12,400 [1]

Group 1 - International gold prices have continued to rise, achieving the largest increase in November, with spot gold reaching $4140.260 per ounce, up 0.61% on November 11 [1] - Silver prices have surged over 3%, briefly surpassing the $50 per ounce mark on November 11 [3] - Domestic gold jewelry prices have significantly increased, with several brands reporting higher prices for gold jewelry compared to the previous day, such as Chow Sang Sang and Chow Tai Fook both at 1308 CNY per gram [3][4] Group 2 - The domestic spot gold prices for various brands are as follows: Chow Tai Fook at 1279 CNY (+0.87%), Lao Feng Xiang at 1273 CNY (+0.39%), and others showing mixed changes [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information regarding the report industry investment rating is provided in the given content. 2. Core View of the Report - Last week, there were no significant events, risk preference fluctuations cooled down, and precious metal prices fluctuated. Gold and silver prices stopped falling and rebounded due to the slowdown in employment data. The US dollar index declined, and the RMB slightly depreciated. The Bank of England kept interest rates unchanged at 4%, increasing the expectation of a rate cut in December. The US manufacturing PMI continued to contract, while the service PMI rebounded strongly. The US employment market showed signs of cooling, with a significant increase in corporate layoffs. Overall, this week, attention should be paid to the US Supreme Court's tariff ruling. With optimistic trade expectations and a cooling rate - cut expectation, the upward momentum of gold and silver is significantly weakened, and the prices will mainly fluctuate [15]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Last Week's Review - **Precious Metal Price Movements**: - Shanghai Gold 2512 closed up 0.32%, reaching a maximum of 827.28; COMEX Gold closed up 0.28%, reaching a maximum of 4043.1 US dollars per ounce; Shanghai Silver 2512 closed up 0.65%; COMEX Silver closed up 0.13%. - London Gold Spot decreased by 0.06%, and London Silver Spot decreased by 0.68%. - The US dollar index fell 0.18%, reaching a maximum of 100.363, and the US dollar against the offshore RMB slightly depreciated by 0.04% [4][15]. - **Macroeconomic Data**: - The Bank of England kept interest rates unchanged at 4%, and the expectation of a rate cut in December increased. - The US 10 - month ISM manufacturing PMI was 48.7, contracting for the eighth consecutive month, lower than the expected 49.5; the ISM service PMI was 52.4, rebounding strongly and reaching an eight - month high. - The US employment market showed signs of cooling. As of September, the number of corporate layoffs was nearly 950,000, and the number of government layoffs was nearly 300,000. In October, the number of Challenger corporate layoffs increased by 175.3% year - on - year, and the total number of layoffs this year exceeded 1 million [15][17][18]. - **Other Events**: - The US government has been shut down for 36 days, setting a record for the longest shutdown, but the possibility of it ending over the weekend increased. - The US Geological Survey included copper in the 2025 key minerals list for the first time [15][19]. 3.2 Weekly Review - Last week, there were no significant events, and the precious metal prices fluctuated and closed up. The US government shutdown affected the stock market, but Trump still expected the US stock market to reach a new high. The Bank of England's decision on interest rates and the US economic data were the same as in the last week's review [15][16]. 3.3 Fundamental Data - **Precious Metal Price Ratios**: Data on the ratio of domestic and foreign precious metal spot prices are presented, including the ratio of London gold and silver spot prices and Shanghai gold and silver spot prices [20]. - **Correlation with the US Dollar Index**: Charts show the relationship between London Gold Spot, London Silver Spot, and the US dollar index [22][23]. - **Correlation with Stock Indexes**: Charts show the relationship between precious metals and major global stock indexes such as the S&P 500, FTSE 100, etc. [24]. - **US Treasury Yield**: The US 10 - year Treasury yield fluctuated and fell to 4.38% [26]. 3.4 Position Data - **Shanghai Gold and Silver Top 20 Positions**: - For Shanghai Gold, the net position began to rebound, with both long and short positions increasing. This week, the long position was 165,261, a decrease of 2,214 from last week; the short position was 67,608, a decrease of 1,415 from last week; the net position was 97,653, a decrease of 799 from last week. - For Shanghai Silver, the net position continued to decrease, with both long and short positions decreasing. This week, the long position was 354,598, an increase of 35,258 from last week; the short position was 255,979, an increase of 3,609 from last week; the net position was 98,619, an increase of 31,649 from last week [29][32]. - **CFTC Positions**: As of September 23, the CFTC gold net position remained net long, with a slight increase in the net long position and an increase in both long and short positions; the CFTC silver net long position continued to increase, with both long and short positions decreasing. Due to the US government shutdown, the data was not updated [33]. - **ETF Positions**: - The SPDR Gold ETF position continued to stop falling and increased slightly. - The silver ETF position continued to decrease [36][38]. - **Inventory Data**: - The Shanghai Gold inventory continued to increase. - The COMEX Gold inventory continued to decrease. - The Shanghai Silver inventory stopped falling, and the COMEX Silver inventory continued to decrease [40][41][43]. 3.5 Summary This week, China will release a series of important economic data for October, the US will release the ADP employment report, and the non - farm data may be postponed. Fed officials will make frequent statements, and Trump may attend the US Supreme Court's key "tariff ruling" hearing. Overall, attention should be paid to the US Supreme Court's tariff ruling. With optimistic trade expectations and a cooling rate - cut expectation, the upward momentum of gold and silver is significantly weakened, and the prices will mainly fluctuate [15].

11月10日午后，贵金属市场大幅拉升走高，黄金期现涨幅均超过2%，白银期货涨幅一度超过4%，其他贵金属 亦不同程度走高。截至发稿，伦敦金现涨2.51%，报4101.06美元/盎司；COMEX黄金涨2.59%，报4113.5美元/ 盎司；伦敦银现涨3.5%，报50.018美元/盎司，COMEX白银涨3.99%，报50.065美元/盎司；现货铂金涨2.59%， NYMEX铂涨2.79%；现货钯金涨3.14%，NYMEX钯涨2.27%。 金价拉升。 | 名称 | 现价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 伦敦金现 | 4101.060 | 100.350 | 2.51% | | 伦敦银现 | 50.018 | 1.692 | 3.50% | | COMEX黄金 | 4113.5 d | 103.7 | 2.59% | | COMEX白银 | 50.065 d | 1.922 | 3.99% | | 伦敦金(人民币/克) | 938.6415 | 22.9679 | 2.51% | | 伦敦银(人民币/千克) | 11448.0088 | 387.2612 | 3.50% ...

Group 1 - Spot gold prices increased to $4090 per ounce, rising by 2.34% [1][2] - Spot silver prices rose by 3.65%, surpassing $50 per ounce, marking a nearly 4% increase [1][3] Group 2 - The highest price for gold reached $4095.771, while the lowest was $3997.198 [2] - For silver, the highest price recorded was $50.060, with a lowest price of $48.235 [3]

研究所 贵金属研发报告 贵金属衍生品日报 2025 年 11 月 10 日 研究所副所长：车红云 期货从业证号：F03088215 投资咨询号：Z0017510 研究员：王露晨 CFA 期货从业证号：F03110758 投资咨询号：Z0021675 联系方式： 上海：021-65789219 北京：010-68569781 4.人民币汇率:人民币兑美元窄幅波动，当前交投于 7.118 附近。 【重要资讯】 邮箱： wangluchen_qh@chinastock.co m.cn 贵金属衍生品日报 【市场回顾】 1.贵金属市场: 今天白天，贵金属强势上行，伦敦金上涨逾 75 美元，当前交 投于 4074 美元；伦敦银则站回 49 关口，当前交投于 49.65 美元附近。受外盘驱 动，沪金最终收涨 2%，报 935.98 元/克; 沪银主力合约最终收涨 2.85%，报 11719 元/千克。 2.美元指数: 美元指数小幅下行，当前交投于 99.55 附近。 3.美债收益率:10 年美债收益率高开低走，当前交投于 4.136%附近。 1.美国政府动态：10 日讯，美国参议院正式通过新的持续拨款法案，该法案 将为政府 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - In the short - term, precious metals need to consolidate to digest the previous sharp rise, but in the medium - term, factors such as global central bank easing, geopolitical risks, and the accelerated restructuring of the international trade and monetary system continue to provide liquidity premiums, safe - haven demand, and reserve diversification demand for precious metals. Investors are advised to maintain a long - biased trading approach and observe the support level of London gold at $3800 - 3850 per ounce. The medium - level bull market for precious metals since March 2024 has not ended, and it is expected that in the next six months and one year, London gold may rise to $4500 and $4800 per ounce respectively, and London silver may rise to $58 and $63 per ounce respectively [4][5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Precious Metals Market Conditions and Outlook - **Intraday Market**: From October 28th to the present, London gold has been trading sideways in the range of $3880 - $4050 per ounce. The narrowing trading range indicates an imminent short - term price breakthrough. In the short - term, precious metals need to adjust, while in the medium - term, they are supported by multiple factors. Investors are advised to hold a long - biased view and watch the support at $3800 - $3850 per ounce [4]. - **Domestic Precious Metals Market**: The Shanghai Gold Index closed at 923.97, up 0.39%; the Shanghai Silver Index closed at 11,505, up 0.49%; Gold T + D closed at 917.27, down 0.03%; Silver T + D closed at 11,480, up 0.52% [5]. - **Medium - term Market**: Since March 2024, the medium - level bull market for precious metals has not ended. It is expected that in the next six months and one year, London gold may reach $4500 and $4800 per ounce respectively, and London silver may reach $58 and $63 per ounce respectively. After the significant decline in precious metal prices since late October, some of the adjustment risks have been released. Investors should pay attention to the technical and fundamental signals for re - entering long positions [5]. 3.2 Precious Metals Market - Related Charts The report presents multiple charts including Shanghai gold and silver futures indices, London gold and silver spot prices, the basis of Shanghai futures indices against Shanghai Gold T + D, gold and silver ETF holdings, the gold - silver ratio, and the correlation between London gold and other assets, with data sourced from Wind and the research and development department of Jianxin Futures [7][9][11]. 3.3 Main Macroeconomic Events/Data - Cleveland Fed President Harker believes that high inflation levels are not conducive to the Fed's further rate cuts, and she is concerned that current monetary policy may not be effective in dealing with inflation. - US President Trump admitted that US consumers are paying higher prices due to his tariff policies, although he still claims that the policy benefits Americans overall. - The Bank of England kept its interest rate at 4.0%, but the close vote and signs that Governor Bailey may soon support rate cuts increase the possibility of a rate cut in December after the government's budget announcement. - After the US imposed new sanctions on major Russian oil producers, Indian and Chinese refiners reduced their purchases, leading to the largest discount of Russian oil prices in Asia compared to Brent crude in a year [17].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The precious metal market is currently under pressure from the US macro - situation but also supported by multiple risk factors. It is expected to continue its consolidation in the high - level range. The trading strategy recommends short - term traders to use a band - trading approach, and long - term investors to maintain a low - buying strategy. Meanwhile, it is advisable to wait and see for arbitrage and options trading [5][6][7] - The interference with the Fed's independence by Trump may push up inflation in the medium - long term, which is one of the main drivers of the precious metal market's rise since late August [19] - The US economic growth shows signs of weakness. The GDP growth has a certain degree of deception, the labor market is cooling, and inflation is fluctuating. The Fed's interest - rate cut rhythm will be affected by inflation stickiness and employment market risks [27][34][48] - The Fed is about to end its balance - sheet reduction, which marks a key step in monetary policy shifting from "active tightening" to "neutral waiting and seeing" [51] - In the precious metal market, the supply and demand of gold are both increasing, with investment demand leading the growth. The supply of silver is relatively stable, and the demand is mainly affected by photovoltaic silver consumption [53][54][66] Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Chapter 1: Weekly Core Points Analysis and Strategy Recommendation - **Comprehensive Analysis** - **US Macro - situation**: Fed officials have different views on the December interest - rate cut. Most are cautious, which has dampened market expectations for future interest - rate cuts. The US dollar index has rebounded, putting pressure on precious metals. However, risks such as the government shutdown, tariff legal debates, and labor market risks support precious metals [5] - **Fundamentals**: In October, gold ETFs had a net inflow of 54.9 tons. In Q3, there was a resonance in ETF, physical demand, and central bank gold - buying demand. Global gold ETF total holdings increased by 222 tons (a 30% quarter - on - quarter increase), bar and coin demand reached 316 tons (a 2.7% quarter - on - quarter increase), and global central bank gold - buying volume was 220 tons (a 28% quarter - on - quarter increase) [5] - **Futures Market**: Precious metals are currently under pressure and supported. The London gold range of $3900 - 4000, London silver range of $46 - 47 (Shanghai gold about 894 - 915 yuan, Shanghai silver about 11000 - 11200 yuan) show good support, but lack upward momentum. It is expected to continue to consolidate in the high - level range [6] - **Strategy Recommendation** - **Single - side Trading**: Short - term traders should mainly use a band - trading approach; long - term investors can continue the low - buying strategy [7] - **Arbitrage and Options**: Wait and see [7] Chapter 2: Macroeconomic Data Tracking - **Market Trading Focus**: The focus has shifted from tariff games to interest - rate cut games. Trump has repeatedly pressured the Fed to cut interest rates, which may affect the Fed's independence and lead to medium - long - term inflation, driving up the precious metal market [19] - **US Economy - GDP**: The Q2 GDP growth was 3.8%, higher than the expected 2.4%. However, the growth has a certain degree of deception. The net export item was abnormally high due to a large reduction in imports, and consumption and investment were weak [25][27] - **US Economy - Employment**: In August, the number of non - farm payrolls was 22,000, lower than the expected 75,000, and the unemployment rate was 4.3%. The labor market is cooling, and there are concerns about employment recession [34] - **US Economy - Inflation**: In September, the CPI data was better than expected, clearing the way for an October interest - rate cut. In August, the PPI was at a new low since June. Overall, inflation rebound is still moderate [45] - **Fed's Interest - rate Decision**: The October FOMC meeting dampened market expectations for an interest - rate cut. Powell's hawkish remarks led to a decline in the probability of a December interest - rate cut from over 90% to 70%. The future interest - rate cut rhythm will be affected by inflation and employment risks [46][47][48] - **Fed's Balance - sheet Reduction**: The Fed is about to end its balance - sheet reduction. The balance of the RRP account is nearly exhausted, and the bank reserve account is approaching the neutral level. Ending the balance - sheet reduction marks a shift in monetary policy [51] Chapter 3: Precious Metal Fundamental Data Tracking - **Gold - Supply and Demand**: In the first three quarters of 2025, the total gold supply was 3717 tons, a 1.2% year - on - year increase. The total demand also increased by 1% to 3717 tons. Investment demand dominated in Q3, and central bank gold - buying volume remained high, while jewelry consumption declined [53][54] - **Central Bank Gold - buying**: Since 2022, central banks around the world have been actively buying gold. Developing countries such as China, Poland, Turkey, and India are the main buyers. The reasons for gold - buying vary by country [63][64] - **Silver - Supply and Demand**: In 2024, the global silver supply was 31,573 tons, and the demand was 36,208 tons, with a supply - demand gap of 4634 tons. In 2025, the supply is expected to increase by 2%, and the demand is expected to decrease slightly, with a narrowing supply - demand gap [66] - **Silver Inventory**: The LBMA silver inventory has dropped to a historical low, with about 24,000 tons, but the freely - tradable amount is only about 6000 tons. The silver lease rate soared in October and has initially eased [69]