美国最新公布的消费者价格指数(CPI)数据显示,通胀水平略低于市场预期这令外界更加确信美联储将在9 月采取降息行动,与此同时,美国政府新一轮关税政策正在持续落地,对全球贸易、美元汇率以及输入性通 胀形成复杂影响,多重因素交织之下,黄金价格虽震荡加剧,但突破关键区间仍有待更多催化。 CPI低于预期 市场看涨降息 美国劳工部最新公布的7月CPI同比上涨2.7%,低于市场此前预计的2.8%,核心CPI(剔除食品和能源)同比上 涨3.1%,略高于预期,但整体通胀水平已呈现企稳迹象,分析人士普遍认为,这一结果显示美国通胀正在温 和回落,为美联储在年内转向宽松政策提供了空间。受此影响,市场对美联储9月降息的预期迅速升温,芝 商所的利率期货工具显示,投资者押注美联储将在9月降息的概率已大幅上升,几乎接近"板上钉钉"有经济 学家指出,在通胀缓解、就业市场降温的背景下,美联储已没有维持高利率的紧迫理由。 关税政策加码 输入性通胀成隐忧 就在市场期待宽松之际,美国政府的新一轮关税政策正在逐步实施,根据最新安排,美国对包括欧盟、日本 在内的多个贸易伙伴实施"互惠关税",整体税率创近九十年来新高;针对中国的关税也被提升至30%,同时 ...

Group 1: Market Performance - The Asia-Pacific stock markets experienced a broad increase driven by optimistic market sentiment, with Japan's Nikkei 225 index reaching a historical high, rising 4.11% or 1637.12 points to close at 41456.23 points [1] - Southeast Asian markets mostly rose, with notable increases in Vietnam's Ho Chi Minh Index, which rose 2.41% or 36.09 points, closing at 1533.37 points, and Indonesia's Jakarta Composite Index, which rose 3.17% or 231.58 points, closing at 7543.5 points [1] Group 2: Trade Agreements and Economic Impact - The U.S. reached a trade agreement with Japan, where Japan will invest $550 billion in the U.S., and the U.S. will impose a 15% tariff on certain Japanese imports [1] - On the same day, the U.S. also reached agreements with the Philippines and Indonesia, with the Philippines facing a 19% tariff while opening its market to the U.S. [3] - Analysts suggest that the short-term market optimism may vary by country, with Indonesia and the Philippines less affected by U.S. tariffs due to lower export dependency [3][4] Group 3: Economic Growth and Forecasts - Southeast Asian countries reported better-than-expected economic growth in Q2, with Vietnam's GDP growing 7.96%, surpassing the expected 6.85% [6] - Despite positive growth, the World Bank downgraded economic forecasts for Southeast Asia, predicting growth rates of 5.8% for Vietnam, 5.3% for the Philippines, and 4.7% for Indonesia [6] - The ASEAN+3 region's economic growth forecast was also lowered to 3.8% for this year, reflecting concerns over external economic pressures [6][7] Group 4: Monetary Policy and Economic Support - Malaysia and Indonesia implemented interest rate cuts in July to support their economies amid a backdrop of declining inflation [7] - The AMRO chief economist indicated that the ASEAN+3 region has the capacity to introduce further stimulus measures due to generally stable fiscal conditions [7] Group 5: Risks to Japan's Economy - Despite the positive sentiment from the U.S.-Japan trade agreement, Japan's economy faces risks, including potential economic slowdown in the U.S. that could impact Japanese exports [8] - Analysts warn that increased tariffs could lead Japanese companies to relocate production closer to the U.S., potentially harming Japan's economic stability [8]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the document. Core View of the Report The report delves into the evolution of the Phillips Curve and its current state of alienation in the US, aiming to explain the Fed's policy dilemmas. It analyzes the factors contributing to the flattening and steepening of the curve and offers insights into the Fed's current policy stance, including reasons for delaying interest rate cuts [2][8][14]. Summary by Related Catalog Evolution of the Phillips Curve Theory - In 1926, Irving Fisher pointed out the inverse relationship between unemployment and price changes, emphasizing the impact of unexpected price changes on the economy [3]. - In 1958, Phillips proposed the negative correlation between the unemployment rate and the rate of change in money - wages, and drew the Phillips Curve [3]. - In 1960, Samuelson and Solow proposed the "unemployment - price" Phillips Curve, replacing the rate of change in money - wages with price increases and incorporating the theory of wage - cost - driven inflation [4]. - In 1962, Okun proposed the "output - price" Phillips Curve, replacing the unemployment rate with the economic growth rate. The combination of Okun's Law and the Phillips Curve forms the basis of the Keynesian policy framework [5]. - In the 1970s, Friedman and Phelps proposed the Phillips Curve with adaptive expectations, introducing the concepts of short - term and long - term curves and the natural unemployment rate [6]. - In the mid - 1970s, the rational expectations school argued that there is no stable relationship between unemployment and inflation in both the short and long term, and the Phillips Curve is vertical [7]. - After the 1980s, the New Keynesian Phillips Curve (NKPC) became systematic, emphasizing forward - looking expectation management [7]. Alienation of the Phillips Curve - **Flattening**: In recent years, the Phillips Curve has flattened. From 1960 - 1983, the slope was 0.67, but from 2000 - 2019, it dropped to 0.03, making it difficult for policymakers to adjust inflation and employment. Factors include stable inflation expectations, supply - chain reconstruction due to trade globalization, and labor - market structural issues [8][9][10]. - **Steepening**: Since 2020, due to large - scale fiscal stimulus and supply - side disruptions after the pandemic, the Phillips Curve has shown a short - term steepening, leaving behind government debt pressure and weakening the curve's elasticity [11]. - **Underlying Cause**: The essence of the Phillips Curve's changes is that the US economy is no longer a closed loop, and the economic cycle's scope changes, leading to local breaks in the curve [12]. Understanding the Fed's Policy Attitude - **Two Concerns**: The Fed is worried about uncontrollable inflation expectations and whether tariff shocks and loose policies will lead to persistent inflation [14]. - **Reasons for Delaying Interest Rate Cuts**: The Fed's ability to suppress inflation is declining; the effectiveness of interest rate cuts depends on the smooth operation of the global dollar system; managing inflation expectations is crucial; and the Fed uses the CME FedWatch tool for expectation management [15].

Core Viewpoint - Japan's ruling coalition faced a historic defeat in the recent House of Councillors election, marking the first time since the Liberal Democratic Party's (LDP) establishment in 1955 that it lost a majority in both houses, leading to increased political fragmentation and uncertainty in the economy [1][2] Economic Impact - Rising inflation and the introduction of foreign immigrants have led to public discontent against the LDP, exacerbated by the impact of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, which has caused a reversal of Japan's long-standing deflation and uncontrolled rice prices [1][2] - The Bank of Japan's benchmark interest rate remains at 0.5%, contributing to yen depreciation and import-driven inflation, while the influx of foreign tourists and investors has intensified local resentment towards foreigners [1][2] Political Dynamics - The political landscape is shifting towards the right, with younger voters supporting right-wing parties advocating for "Japan First" policies, which include rejecting immigration and proposing tax cuts and subsidies to alleviate living costs [1][3] - Prime Minister Kishida's weakened political foundation may hinder substantial concessions in U.S.-Japan trade negotiations, potentially leading to a stalemate in both the political arena and trade discussions [2][3] Fiscal Challenges - The call for tax reductions, particularly on consumption tax, is gaining traction, with 52% of the public supporting such measures, despite concerns that this could worsen Japan's fiscal situation and lead to increased long-term interest rates [3][4] - Japan's national debt stands at 250% of GDP, the highest among developed nations, necessitating low interest rates to manage government interest costs while stimulating exports [2][3] Market Reactions - Political uncertainty is expected to negatively impact yen-denominated assets, potentially driving international capital away from the Japanese bond market, which could trigger broader risks in U.S.-Japan capital markets [4]

Group 1 - The upcoming Consumer Price Index (CPI) report for June is expected to show a significant rebound in inflation, which could influence the Federal Reserve's monetary policy in the second half of the year [1][4] - The CPI for May showed a year-on-year increase of 2.4% and a month-on-month increase of 0.1%, while core CPI remained at 2.8%, indicating overall moderate inflation pressure [3] - Wall Street anticipates that the June CPI year-on-year growth will rise to 2.7% and month-on-month growth may reach 0.3%, marking a new high for the year [3] Group 2 - The rise in inflation is attributed not only to short-term fluctuations in energy and food prices but also to new tariff measures impacting various sectors, leading to input inflation [3] - The ISM manufacturing report indicates a trend of rising raw material prices, reflecting companies' responses to tariff policies, which could lead to widespread price increases in core goods [3][4] - The Federal Reserve's stance remains cautious, with Chairman Powell emphasizing the need to observe summer price reports to assess changes in inflation trends [4] Group 3 - Market expectations suggest a 50 basis point rate cut by the end of the year, but there is divergence on the timing, with some investors believing that sustained high inflation could delay rate cuts [4] - The recent rebound in the dollar index and rising U.S. Treasury yields indicate increased investor vigilance regarding the potential for rising inflation [4] - The current situation presents challenges for the Federal Reserve, balancing the risk of inflation resurgence against potential growth risks from manufacturing weakness and declining consumer momentum [4]

Group 1: Interest Rate Expectations - The market anticipates three interest rate cuts within the year and five by the end of 2026, according to CME's FedWatch tool[3] - The Federal Reserve's rate cut pace may be more complex than the market's linear expectations due to unaccounted input inflation from a weaker dollar[4] - A 10% depreciation of the dollar could increase U.S. imports to approximately $3.6 trillion and widen the trade deficit beyond $1.2 trillion, raising inflationary pressures[4] Group 2: Inflation Dynamics - Historical data indicates that a declining dollar often leads to increased input inflation, which may have a lagging effect on prices[5] - The U.S. CPI year-on-year low point likely occurred in April or May, with expectations for inflation to rise above 3% by year-end if monthly CPI growth remains around 0.2%[5] - The impact of tariffs on inflation may take time to manifest, complicating the inflation outlook further[4] Group 3: Demand Response to Rate Cuts - Rate cuts may not stimulate demand as effectively as anticipated, as evidenced by the slow recovery in the Eurozone despite over 200 basis points of cuts since 2024[6] - The wealth effect from rate cuts could differ this time, as a significant portion of U.S. Treasury bonds is now held by the private sector, potentially dampening the positive impact on asset values[6] - If the Fed's rate cuts are insufficient, the net financial cost for companies may actually increase, countering the intended benefits of lower rates[7]

Core Viewpoint - The Japanese yen has experienced a significant decline against major currencies, influenced by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and rising oil prices, which may worsen Japan's trade balance and reduce the yen's attractiveness [2][5][6]. Currency Performance - On June 23, the yen fell sharply against major currencies, with the USD/JPY rising by 1.3% to a high of 148.0335, the highest since May 13 [5]. - The offshore yuan also saw a decline of over 1% against the yen, while the Hong Kong dollar, euro, and British pound appreciated against the yen by 1.22%, 0.74%, and 0.66% respectively [5]. Geopolitical Impact - Analysts suggest that Iran may retaliate against the U.S., potentially affecting oil production and exports in the region, which is crucial for Japan as it relies heavily on oil imports from the Middle East [5][9]. - Japan imports over 90% of its oil from the Middle East, making it vulnerable to fluctuations in oil prices [9]. Economic Implications - The escalation of tensions in the Middle East could lead to increased import-driven inflation in Japan, hindering the normalization of the Bank of Japan's monetary policy, with expectations for the next interest rate hike being pushed to Q1 2026 [7][10]. - Rising oil prices are expected to deteriorate Japan's trade surplus and trade conditions, further weakening the yen [10]. Investment Strategies - U.S. Bank strategists recommend investors buy USD/JPY to hedge against the risks associated with escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East [8]. - Citigroup analysts noted that rising oil prices could compound downward pressure on the yen, especially given the Bank of Japan's dovish stance in recent policy meetings [10]. Oil Price Outlook - International oil prices have surged, with Brent crude futures rising over 5% and WTI crude futures increasing over 3% on June 23 [14]. - Analysts predict that even a partial disruption in oil flow through the Strait of Hormuz could lead to significant price increases, potentially reaching $110 per barrel for Brent crude [16][19]. Regional Currency Vulnerability - Other currencies such as the Philippine peso, South Korean won, and Thai baht are also susceptible to rising oil prices, which may limit the monetary policy flexibility of their respective central banks [11][12][13].

Core Viewpoint - The recent Israeli airstrikes on Iran have raised significant concerns for oil-importing countries, particularly Japan, which heavily relies on Middle Eastern oil imports. The situation could lead to increased oil prices and potential economic repercussions for these nations [1][3][4]. Group 1: Impact on Oil Prices - Israeli attacks on Iranian oil facilities could push Brent crude oil prices up to $80 per barrel if tensions escalate [5]. - A potential blockade of the Strait of Hormuz by Iran could threaten global oil supply, leading to prices soaring to $120 per barrel [6]. - If the situation continues to deteriorate, Brent crude prices could exceed the historical peak of nearly $150 per barrel by the end of 2025 [7]. Group 2: Dependency on Middle Eastern Oil - Japan's oil imports are heavily reliant on the Middle East, with 95% of its crude oil coming from this region, especially after the reduction of Russian oil imports due to sanctions [3][10]. - China's oil dependency is also significant, with over 70% of its crude oil sourced from abroad, making it vulnerable to Middle Eastern instability [10]. Group 3: Economic Consequences - The reliance on foreign oil can lead to imported inflation, increasing costs of living and economic operational expenses, reminiscent of the oil embargo in the 1970s that caused stagflation in Western countries [11]. - Countries dependent on oil imports must diversify their sources to mitigate risks associated with geopolitical tensions in the Middle East [12][15]. Group 4: Energy Transition Strategies - Developing renewable energy sources is a strategic approach to reduce dependency on oil and enhance energy security [16]. - China has made progress in this area, promoting electric vehicles and transitioning its energy structure, which serves as a buffer against potential energy crises [17].

Group 1: Geopolitical Conflicts and Energy Market - Geopolitical conflicts, such as the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict and tensions in the Middle East, are significantly impacting the energy market, leading to supply uncertainties and price volatility [3] - As of October 2024, the escalation of tensions between Iran and Israel has raised concerns about potential disruptions in Middle Eastern oil supplies, resulting in a continuous rise in international oil prices [3] Group 2: Impact of Energy Price Fluctuations - Energy price fluctuations have a domino effect on global economies, leading to increased inflation rates across major economies. For instance, the inflation rate in the US rose from 2.5% to 3.5% following significant energy price changes [4] - The profit margins of energy companies vary significantly with energy price changes. For example, oil extraction companies see a profit increase of 30% during price hikes, while they face a 20% decline when prices drop [6] Group 3: Stock Market Reactions - The energy sector in stock markets tends to perform well during periods of rising energy prices, with the S&P 500 energy sector index increasing by 20% during such times [7] - Conversely, during price declines, the energy sector experiences a downturn, with the S&P 500 energy sector index dropping by 15% [7] Group 4: China's Economic Challenges and Opportunities - As the largest energy importer, China faces increased import costs due to rising energy prices, which can lead to significant inflationary pressures in various sectors, including transportation and chemicals [8] - Energy-intensive industries in China, such as steel and chemicals, are under pressure from rising energy costs, leading to potential production cuts and financial strain [9] Group 5: Energy Structure Adjustment - The volatility in energy prices is prompting China to accelerate its energy structure adjustment, increasing investments in renewable energy sources like solar and wind power [10] - This shift aims to reduce reliance on imported fossil fuels and enhance energy supply diversification and sustainability [10] Group 6: Investment Landscape - Traditional energy investments are becoming riskier due to price volatility, necessitating careful evaluation of geopolitical developments and market dynamics [11] - In contrast, investments in renewable energy are thriving, driven by government support and growing market demand, particularly in sectors like electric vehicles [12] Group 7: Infrastructure Investment Directions - There is a growing focus on investing in energy-related infrastructure, including the construction of oil and gas storage facilities and the upgrade of energy transmission networks to improve efficiency [14] - These investments aim to enhance energy security and ensure stable supply amidst fluctuating energy prices [14]

Core Inflation Outlook - Singapore's core inflation is expected to remain moderate for the remainder of the year, according to a report by DBS Bank's senior economist Chua Han Teng [1] - The expectation reflects DBS Bank's outlook on curbing input inflation and reducing the pass-through of corporate costs to consumer prices [1] - There are anticipated downward risks to Singapore's inflation, aligning with the Monetary Authority of Singapore's moderate assessment [1] Economic Context - A slowdown in global trade may adversely affect Singapore's export-dependent economy, potentially weakening domestic labor demand and wage growth [1]