当地时间本周五，国际黄金、白银价格大幅下跌。截至收盘，纽约商品交易所黄金期货主力合约价格跌 破每盎司4800美元关口；纽约商品交易所白银期货主力合约跌破每盎司80美元关口，较前一个交易日下 跌31.37%。 30日美国三大股指集体下跌 本周美股涨跌不一 当地时间本周五，美国总统特朗普提名凯文・沃什出任美联储下一任主席，市场分析认为沃什立场偏鹰 派，可能不会支持大幅降息，他在美联储任职期间曾多次表达对通胀上行的担忧。消息公布后，市场维 持美联储今年只降息两次的预期。另外，最新公布的美国去年12月生产者价格指数（PPI）超预期增 长，显示生产端通胀压力顽固，以上多个因素打压市场风险偏好，截至收盘，美国股市延续前一日跌势 集体下跌，其中道指跌0.36%，标普500指数跌0.43%，纳指跌0.94%。 个股方面，受益于iPhone销量的大幅增长，苹果公司公布的2026财年第一财季营收超预期增长，苹果公 司股价周五收涨0.46%。从周线上看，本周美国三大股指涨跌不一，其中道指累计下跌0.42%，标普500 指数累计上涨0.34%，纳指下跌0.17%。 通胀压力上行 美国去年12月PPI超预期增长 经济数据面上，本周五， ...

Core Viewpoint - Kevin Warsh, a long-time critic of the Federal Reserve, has been nominated by President Trump to lead the Fed, marking a significant potential shift in monetary policy direction [2][3][5]. Group 1: Warsh's Background and Experience - Warsh has a history of involvement with the Federal Reserve, having served on its board for five years and played a role in managing the 2008-09 financial crisis [3][5]. - He has consistently criticized the Fed's handling of crises since leaving the institution 15 years ago, emphasizing perceived shortcomings in its responses [3][5]. - His nomination could represent one of the most significant power transitions in the Fed's history, promising a comprehensive reevaluation of its asset allocation and policy framework [5][7]. Group 2: Potential Changes Under Warsh - Warsh aims to reform the Fed's $6.6 trillion asset portfolio, advocating for a new agreement with the Treasury to reduce the central bank's influence in the money market [7]. - He has warned that the Fed's continued large-scale asset purchases could lead to greater inflation issues in the future [7][10]. - His approach may involve a more stringent regulatory framework for private cryptocurrencies, although this has faced opposition from many Republicans [7]. Group 3: Political Dynamics and Challenges - Warsh's confirmation appears likely due to the Republican majority in the Senate, but challenges may arise from ongoing investigations by the Justice Department into the Fed [3][10]. - Senator Thom Tillis has expressed opposition to any Fed appointments, including Warsh, until investigations conclude, despite acknowledging Warsh's qualifications [3]. - Warsh's past criticisms of the Fed may create skepticism among his new colleagues, necessitating significant efforts to build trust [7][10]. Group 4: Warsh's Economic Philosophy - Warsh has historically focused on the risks of high inflation rather than the dangers of economic slowdown, which may influence his policy decisions [14][15]. - He has previously argued that the Fed's attempts to keep long-term rates low have allowed Congress and the White House to avoid necessary economic decisions [15]. - His belief in the Fed's independence from political pressures is strong, as he has warned against attempts to influence its policies for political gain [10][18].

Market Overview - On January 31, US stock indices closed lower, with the Dow Jones down 0.36%, the Nasdaq down 0.94%, and the S&P 500 down 0.43% [1][2] - The Dow Jones index closed at 48,892.47, the Nasdaq at 23,461.82, and the S&P 500 at 6,939.03 [2] Precious Metals - Global precious metals market experienced panic selling, with spot silver dropping over 36% at one point, and gold prices falling below $5,000, with a daily decline of 12.41% from $5,400/oz to $4,709.68/oz [2][6] - COMEX gold futures fell by $447.30, a decrease of 8.35%, closing at $4,907.5/oz, while spot gold dropped nearly $500, down 9.25% to $4,880/oz [6][7] - Spot silver saw a decline of over $30, down 26.42% to $85.259/oz, and platinum fell 17.59% to $2,178.48/oz [6][7] Technology Sector - Major technology stocks mostly declined, with the US Technology Seven Index down 0.32%. Notable declines included META and TSMC down nearly 3%, while Tesla rose by 3% [2] - The semiconductor sector faced significant losses, with companies like Nvidia, Micron Technology, and Intel all experiencing declines of over 4% [2][4] Chinese Stocks - The Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index fell by 2.36%, with many Chinese stocks declining, including Bilibili and Li Auto down over 3% [3] - Yipeng Energy saw a dramatic increase of 3141.11% [3][4] Economic Indicators - Recent economic data from the US shows mixed signals, with December PPI rising 3.0% year-on-year, indicating persistent inflationary pressures [9] - The Chicago PMI for January rebounded significantly to 54, indicating unexpected expansion in manufacturing activity [9] Federal Reserve Nomination - President Trump nominated Kevin Walsh, a former Fed governor, for the next Fed chair, which may impact future monetary policy due to his hawkish stance on monetary policy [8][9]

今年年初以来，全球权益资产表现较好，其中商品类资产表现最为突出。美元 之外的其他货币整体升值，包括人民币、欧元和日元等。在美日联合干预的情 况下，这些货币也取得了向上的走势。然而，与之相对的是国债类资产表现不 佳，美债和日债均处于较弱状态。美债收益率自去年 12 月会议结束后，从之 前的低点 3.9 左右反弹了约 30 个基点，成为近期市场最弱的资产。 美债收益率上行的原因有哪些？ 美债买点将至？20260128 摘要 美债收益率受多重利空因素影响上行，包括降息利好出尽、市场交易复 苏及通胀预期，以及特朗普政策和鲍威尔调查对美元资产信誉的冲击， 海外债市颓势和季节性因素亦有影响。 短期内美债收益率或高位震荡，但全年仍存交易机会。当前收益率较高， 汇率压力释放后，美债或迎买点。长期看，美国经济增速与当前利率不 匹配，AI 资本开支回落，预计联储将降息，美债收益率将下行。 预计美国经济增速将逐步下行，高利率难以支撑经济复苏，AI 相关资本 开支增速将回落，传统消费等领域难改善。因此，预计联储将继续降息， 美债收益率将回落，滞胀风险有限。 2026 年美国通胀压力预计不大，商品关税影响达峰，大宗商品权重较 低，服务 ...

智通财经获悉，现货黄金价格在冲高逼近5600美元后出现回落，截至发稿，金价涨1.02%，报5472.41美元/盎司，刷新历史最高纪录，延续了此前因市场预 期货币宽松政策、资金大规模撤离主权债券及传统货币体系所引发的强劲涨势，形成令人瞩目的持续上行态势。 金价一度飙升4.6%，创下近期显著涨幅，主要源于交易员普遍押注美联储新任货币政策掌舵人或将在今年晚些时候更倾向于采取更多宽松政策。值得注意 的是，尽管美联储在周三结束的会议上决定维持当前利率水平不变，但同时释放信号——未来任何潜在的政策调整都将以更为审慎的态度推进。 此外，加剧的地缘政治风险、投资者逃离货币和国债，以及美元走弱，共同引发了对贵金属的投资热潮。今年以来，黄金价格已上涨约 25%，本周突破每 盎司 5000 美元大关。同期，白银价格飙升 63%。 周二，美元指数跌至四年低点，创下自去年关税政策实施以来最大单日跌幅。此前特朗普曾称美元"表现良好"且未过度贬值，但此次暴跌与总统表态形成反 差。值得关注的是，特朗普最新表示美元近期贬值对美国企业有利，这一言论虽与美国官员过往立场相符，却仍引发外汇市场剧烈波动——市场认为该表态 实质上承认了美元近期显著贬值 ...

我问你个问题，你最近看金价走势图了吗？那种斜率，看得我后背发凉。就在这两天，金价已经彻底疯了，国际金价在2026年1月28日前后硬 生生站稳了5200美元每盎司的关口。 我记得前两年大家还在讨论两千美元是不是天花板，结果现在回过头看，那简直是地板。我查了一下美联储最新的公开数据，美国现在的国 债规模已经飙到了38.4万亿美元，这个数字就在那儿摆着，每天睁眼就是几十亿的利息。 你有没有发现，华尔街那帮人现在一边在媒体上喊着风险，一边手里的动作比谁都快？他们这摆明了是把黄金当成最后的抽水泵。逻辑其实 挺简单的，美联储现在不敢不降息。根据联邦储备系统最新的贴现率会议记录，美联储为了保住那点可怜的就业率和防止中小银行集体崩 盘，在过去的几个月里连续下调利率。钱一旦便宜了，原本趴在美债里的资金就开始坐不住了，如果这些钱大规模换成欧元、日元，甚至流 向东南亚和中国的资产，那美元的霸权基本上就宣告进入停车场了。 这时候黄金的价格被拉到这种反直觉的高度，我个人觉得就是华尔街设的一道围栏。你想啊，如果你手里拿着大把美元，现在利息低了，你 想跑，但你一看外面的汇率乱跳，再看一眼黄金，涨得比火箭还快。你会想，算了，还是换成黄金吧。 ...

（文章来源：新华财经） Allspring全球投资跨资产解决方案团队投资组合经理Rushabh Amin指出，美联储当前3.50%–3.75%的联 邦基金利率目标区间已非常接近中性水平，同时不会进一步加剧通胀压力。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Many U.S. companies are attempting to assure investors that tariffs are "manageable," but early comments from the earnings season indicate that profit margins are at risk due to consumers' reluctance to accept higher prices [1][6]. Group 1: Company Insights - Procter & Gamble, Fastenal, and 3M have highlighted challenges related to rising prices and tariffs [1][7]. - Amazon's CEO Andy Jassy noted that sellers are reducing inventory in anticipation of tariffs, leading to price increases on the e-commerce platform [1][7]. - Tractor Supply reported that consumers are increasingly focused on value, with price increases expected to be "surgical" [2][8]. - Levi Strauss indicated that tariffs would reduce its profit margin by 0.7%, up from a previous estimate of 0.5%, while also warning of a weaker consumer environment [2][8]. - McCormick & Co is raising prices due to higher-than-expected tariff costs, with about 50% of its products still facing incremental tariffs [9]. Group 2: Consumer Behavior - Consumers are showing caution in spending, particularly middle and lower-income groups, as they seek value for money [1][7]. - A study from Yale Budget Lab reported that the effective tariff rate for U.S. consumers reached 14.4%, the highest in 85 years [10]. - Despite overall consumer spending remaining strong, there is significant consumer anger towards current price levels, with many unwilling to accept further price increases [1][7]. Group 3: Market Trends - Over 100 S&P 500 companies are expected to report earnings next week, indicating a significant focus on how tariffs are impacting financial performance [1][8]. - Procter & Gamble has raised prices on some products by 2% to 2.5% to offset the impact of tariffs and declining sales [9]. - Fastenal acknowledged that tariffs have increased prices and negatively affected demand, with plans to seek more pricing power by 2026 [10].

行业周报 | 有色金属 避险情绪逐步升温，贵金属配置价值进一步凸显 有色金属行业周报（2026.1.19-2026.1.25） 核心结论 本周核心关注一：国家统计局显示，2025 年规模以上工业增加值比上年增 长 5.9% 统计局 1 月 19 日公告，2025 年 12 月份，规模以上工业增加值同比实际增 长 5.2%（增加值增速均为扣除价格因素的实际增长率）。从环比看，12 月 份，规模以上工业增加值比上月增长 0.49%。2025 年，规模以上工业增加值 比上年增长 5.9%。 本周核心关注二：美国 11 月 PCE 通胀基本符合预期，美联储下周料维持利 率不变 当地时间周五，美国商务部经济分析局发布了 11 月份的 PCE 物价指数。作 为美联储最青睐的通胀指标，11 月 PCE 通胀数据小幅上行，进一步偏离央 行设定的目标水平，但整体仍符合市场预期。具体数据显示，美国 11 月整体 PCE 物价指数同比上涨 2.8%，预期为 2.8%；环比上涨 0.2%，预期为 0.2%。 本周核心关注三：美联储褐皮书显示，近期美国经济活动温和扩张，但通胀 压力仍存 美联储周三公布的褐皮书显示，美国大多数地区的经济 ...

上周美国多项宏观数据相继披露：美国11月整体PCE物价指数同比上涨2.8%，与市场预期完全一致；至 1月17日当周初请失业金人数录得20万人，低于市场预期的21万人，前值由19.8万人修正为19.9万人；第 三季度实际GDP年化季率终值达到4.4%，超出此前4.3%的市场预期；第三季度核心PCE物价指数年化季 率终值为2.9%，符合市场预期。 市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文为AI基于第三方数据生成，仅供参考，不构成个人投资建议。 来源：市场资讯 本周全球宏观市场迎来多项核心事件与经济指标发布，美联储利率决议及美国12月PPI数据成为核心关 注焦点。 1月28日，加拿大央行将公布利率决议及配套货币政策报告；1月29日凌晨3点，美联储FOMC将公布1月 利率决议，当日晚间还将发布美国至1月24日当周初请失业金人数数据；1月30日晚间，美国12月PPI年 率将正式出炉，该指标将直观反映产业链上游的通胀压力变化情况。 ...