当地时间周一，投资者更多关注美国经济增长放缓以及关税政策带来的负面影响，同时也在等候将于当地时间本周二公布 的美国7月消费者价格指数(CPI)数据，市场交投较为谨慎，美国三大股指当天集体收跌。截至收盘，道指跌0.45%，标普 500指数跌0.25%，纳指跌0.30%。美国银行的一份最新行业调查显示，约91%的受访基金经理认为美股估值已经过高，这 一比例创下2001年以来新高。 11日国际金价显著下跌 跌幅近2.5% 国际金价方面，美国总统特朗普周一在社交媒体上发文称，"黄金不会被征收关税"，令投资者担忧情绪降温。同时，市场 普遍预计美国关税政策引发的物价上涨，将推动美国7月CPI数据进一步反弹，通胀压力加剧或影响美联储降息路径，以 上因素导致国际金价周一大跌近2.5%，创下近3个月来最大单日跌幅。截至收盘，纽约商品交易所12月黄金期价收于每盎 司3404.7美元，跌幅约为2.48%。 欧洲方面，德国德意志银行最新发布的研报显示，有17%的欧洲上市企业在近期发布的财报中都下调了业绩指引，以化工 和汽车制造等行业企业为主。下调原因包括受美国关税政策冲击和美元贬值预期等。欧洲三大股指周一涨跌不一。截至收 盘，英国股 ...

Core Insights - Goldman Sachs indicates a significant shift in the cost-sharing structure of tariffs in the U.S., with consumers expected to bear 67% of the costs by October, while businesses' share will drop to less than 10% [1][2][9] - This transition is anticipated to exert upward pressure on inflation, with the core PCE inflation rate projected to reach 3.2% by the end of the year [1][10] Cost Distribution Changes - As of June, U.S. businesses absorbed 64% of the tariff costs, while consumers and foreign exporters bore 22% and 14%, respectively [2][6] - The delay in cost transmission means that businesses initially absorbed the tariff impacts to maintain market share, but these costs will eventually be passed on to consumers through higher prices [2][7] Impact on Import Prices - The report notes a slight decrease in import prices post-tariff implementation, suggesting that foreign exporters are lowering their prices to absorb some of the tariff costs [3] - Goldman Sachs estimates that foreign exporters will bear 25% of the tariff costs by October, with a potential overall decrease in U.S. import prices of 3.7% by the end of 2025 due to a cumulative effective tariff rate increase of 14 percentage points [5] Inflationary Pressure - The analysis predicts that the majority of tariff costs will be transferred to U.S. consumers in the coming months, significantly impacting inflation [7] - By October, the share of tariff costs borne by consumers is expected to rise sharply from 22% to 67%, while the share for businesses will plummet from 64% to 8% [9] Specific Product Impact - The report highlights that companies heavily reliant on imported components may face greater cost pressures, while domestic producers protected from import competition may benefit from raising their prices [8]

Policy Background and Main Content - The U.S. has been facing a persistent trade deficit, with the trade deficit reaching [X] billion USD in 2024, prompting the government to implement tariff policies to reduce imports and enhance domestic product competitiveness [1] - The tariffs aim to revive the manufacturing sector by encouraging companies to relocate production back to the U.S., addressing the issue of job losses in manufacturing [1] Key Tariff Policies - In April 2025, the U.S. announced a 10% "minimum baseline tariff" on trade partners, with higher "reciprocal tariffs" on countries with significant trade deficits [2] - Tariffs on steel were increased from 25% to 50%, with specific adjustments for countries like Canada and Mexico, affecting a wide range of imported goods [2] Impact on U.S. Prices - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 2.7% year-on-year in June 2025, up from 2.4% in May, indicating a significant inflationary trend linked to tariff implementation [2] - The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index also showed an increase, with core PCE rising to 2.8%, the highest level since October 2024 [2] Price Changes in Different Goods - Prices of imported consumer goods, particularly textiles and apparel, have surged, with predictions of a 40% increase in shoe prices and a 38% increase in clothing prices in the short term [3] - Prices for household appliances rose by 1.9% in June, marking the largest monthly increase since August 2020, while electronics prices increased by nearly 5% year-on-year [3] Energy and Raw Material Price Fluctuations - Tariffs on Canadian energy exports and raw materials like copper and steel have led to increased production costs in various industries, including construction [4] - The National Association of Home Builders indicated that consumers would ultimately bear the cost of these tariffs through rising housing prices [4] Mechanisms of Price Impact - Tariffs have increased the cost of imported goods, which is passed on to consumers, leading to higher prices for products like imported wines and spirits [5] - Domestic producers are also affected as tariffs raise the cost of raw materials, such as steel, which in turn increases production costs across various sectors [6] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The increase in tariffs has led to a reduction in the supply of imported goods, causing prices to rise due to supply-demand imbalances, particularly in sectors like apparel and furniture [7] - Domestic production adjustments are slow, as industries that have long relied on imports struggle to ramp up production quickly to meet demand [8] Duration and Uncertainty of Price Impact - In the short term (3-6 months), the impact of tariffs on prices is expected to intensify as inventory levels decrease and costs are passed to consumers [9] - Mid-term (6 months to 1 year) effects will be influenced by limited production shifts and ongoing policy uncertainties, potentially prolonging price instability [11] - Long-term impacts (over 1 year) may lead to structural price increases and dependency on tariff policies, affecting industries reliant on Chinese supply chains [12] Economic and Consumer Impact Outlook - Rising prices may suppress consumer spending, which is critical as private consumption accounts for nearly 70% of U.S. GDP, potentially hindering economic growth [13] - Businesses face increased costs and uncertain market demand, which may lead to reduced investment and production expansion, further complicating economic recovery [13]

Group 1: Weather Impact on Agriculture - Japan experienced unprecedented high temperatures and low rainfall this summer, with average temperatures in June and July reaching historical highs, and over 4,565 locations recording temperatures above 35 degrees Celsius in July alone [1] - The northeastern and Hokuriku regions, major rice-producing areas, saw rainfall drop to only 13% and 8% of average levels, raising significant concerns about rice production [1][2] - Water reservoirs in these regions are critically low, with some at less than 10% capacity, leading to urgent calls for water conservation [2] Group 2: Rice Prices and Supply Concerns - The average price of rice in Japan increased to 3,625 yen for 5 kilograms as of July 27, marking the first rise in 10 weeks, attributed to a decrease in government reserve grain supply [1][3] - The estimated rice production for 2023 is projected to be 661,000 tons, 80,000 tons less than initially expected, leading to potential supply shortages and price hikes [3] - The government plans to encourage farmers to increase rice planting despite the low production levels, aiming to gain support from the agricultural sector and address consumer concerns over rising living costs [3] Group 3: Broader Agricultural Price Increases - The Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries forecasts that wholesale prices for 15 major vegetables in Tokyo will rise by 10% to 30% compared to the average of the past five years due to the impact of high temperatures and reduced rainfall [4] - Pork prices remain high, matching last year's record levels, with supply issues stemming from decreased breeding rates and weight gain due to heat stress [4][5] - Experts warn that if high temperatures persist, meat prices may continue to rise in the fall, compounded by increasing feed and fuel costs for livestock producers [5]

Group 1 - The number of Americans filing for continued unemployment benefits has surged to its highest level since November 2021, indicating a weakening labor market [1] - As of the week ending July 26, continued unemployment claims increased by 38,000 to 1.97 million, exceeding market expectations [1] - Initial unemployment claims for the week ending August 2 rose to 226,000, slightly above market expectations, suggesting that job seekers are facing more difficulties [1] Group 2 - Investors and economists are closely monitoring any signs of further deterioration in the labor market, especially after the July non-farm payroll report showed significantly fewer new jobs than expected [3] - The report led to downward revisions of employment data for May and June, increasing expectations for a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September [3] - Despite a generally low level of layoffs this year, some large companies, including Merck and Intel, have announced layoffs, with Stanford University planning to cut over 300 jobs due to federal funding reductions [3] Group 3 - Another report indicated that U.S. labor productivity rebounded in the second quarter, aligning with economic growth and helping to mitigate wage-related inflation pressures [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that Singapore's Consumer Price Index (CPI) has shown a significant slowdown in inflation, with an overall year-on-year increase of 0.9% in the first half of the year compared to 1.8% in the second half of the previous year [1] - The CPI for different income groups reflects this trend, with the lowest and middle-income groups both at 0.8% and the highest income group at 1.2%, primarily driven by rising car prices [1] - Major contributors to CPI growth include accommodation, health insurance, food, and automobiles, although some price increases were offset by reduced holiday costs and lower electricity prices [1] Group 2 - Starting in 2024, Singapore's CPI will be adjusted to reflect the latest consumption patterns and changes in the composition of goods and services, based on a household expenditure survey conducted in 2023 [2] - The adjustment will also consider household size differences, which will help in adapting government policies and using monthly income as a basis for economic status testing [2] Group 3 - In June, Singapore's CPI showed a year-on-year increase of 0.8%, with food, health insurance, and transportation driving the rise, while clothing and durable goods saw price declines [3] - Food prices increased by 1.0%, with food and beverage services rising by 1.1%, influenced by improved supply chains and local agricultural advancements, although labor and packaging costs continued to exert upward pressure [3] - The core CPI, excluding accommodation and private transport, rose by 0.6%, supported by a stable labor market and a decrease in input inflation from major trading partners [3] Group 4 - The Singapore government plans to closely monitor price dynamics and implement measures to keep inflation within controllable limits, while also promoting structural reforms to enhance economic productivity and competitiveness [4] - Initiatives aimed at supporting technology innovation enterprises are being introduced to encourage efficiency improvements and reduce reliance on labor and raw materials, thereby alleviating price pressures [4]

Core Insights - Medtronic, a leader in medical technology, has seen its stock decline significantly from its 2021 peak, primarily due to product recalls and market conditions [2][3][5] Financial Performance - In the past year, Medtronic reported nearly $33.2 billion in revenue and $4.3 billion in net income, indicating slight growth and consistent profitability [3] - Operating cash flow has been weak, with only $127 million recorded in the latest quarter, representing less than 0.5% of revenue [3] Stock Performance and Market Comparison - Medtronic's stock has declined approximately 50% from its 2021 peak of around $140 to below $70 in late 2023, while the S&P 500 experienced a peak-to-trough decline of 25.4% during the same period [2][7] - The stock has not yet returned to its pre-Crisis high, with the highest value since then being $94.50 on March 9, 2025, and currently trading at $92.94 [7] Economic and Market Challenges - Current economic challenges, including inflation pressures and uncertainties in global trade and medical reimbursement trends, may strain healthcare profit margins [5] - Historical data shows that during economic downturns, Medtronic's stock has lost more value compared to the S&P 500, raising concerns about its resilience in adverse market conditions [6][9] Growth Concerns - Medtronic's trailing P/E ratio is approximately 27, despite slowing revenue growth, which has decreased from over 5% to under 3% in the most recent quarter [8]

Economic Overview - The U.S. GDP growth for Q2 was revised up to 3.0%, exceeding expectations of 2.6%, with net exports contributing 5 percentage points[5] - The Atlanta Fed's GDP Now forecast indicates a slight decrease in Q3 GDP growth to 2.1%[3] - The final domestic private purchases growth (consumption + investment) fell by 0.7 percentage points to 1.2%[5] Employment Data - July non-farm payrolls increased by only 74,000, significantly below the expected 104,000, with prior months' data revised down by 258,000[5] - Initial jobless claims decreased by 23,000 to 193,000, better than the expected 211,000, indicating no significant layoffs yet[3] - The unemployment rate rose by 0.1 percentage points to 4.2%, primarily due to a drop in labor force participation[5] Inflation and Monetary Policy - The core PCE inflation for June was reported at 2.6%, above the expected 2.5%, indicating persistent inflationary pressures[5] - The Federal Reserve maintained the benchmark interest rate at 4.25%-4.5% during the July FOMC meeting, with a hawkish tone from Powell[6] Market Reactions - U.S. stock indices fell, with the S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow Jones down by 2.4%, 2.2%, and 2.9% respectively[7] - The U.S. dollar index rose by 1% to 98.7, while the euro and yen depreciated by 2.8% and 2.1% respectively[7] Commodity Prices - COMEX gold prices increased by 1.9% to $3,399.8 per ounce, while Brent crude oil rose by 1.8% to $69.7 per barrel[7]

Group 1 - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) forecasts global economic growth at 3.0% for this year, an increase of 0.2 percentage points from the April prediction, and 3.1% for 2026, also up by 0.1 percentage points [1] - The global trade growth forecast has been raised by 0.9 percentage points to 2.6% for this year, indicating resilience in the global economy amid increasing uncertainties [1] - China's economic growth forecast has been adjusted upward by 0.8 percentage points to 5.6% for this year, and by 0.2 percentage points to 4.4% for next year [1] - The growth forecast for India has been slightly increased by 0.2 percentage points to 6.4% for this year and by 0.1 percentage points for next year [1] - Developed economies' growth predictions have been raised by 0.1 percentage points to 1.5% for this year and 1.6% for next year [1] - The U.S. economic growth forecast has been increased by 0.1 percentage points to 1.9% for this year and by 0.3 percentage points to 2.0% for next year [1] - The growth forecast for developing countries has been raised by 0.4 percentage points to 4.1% for this year and by 0.1 percentage points to 4.0% for next year [1] - The Eurozone growth forecast has been adjusted upward by 0.2 percentage points to 1.0% for this year, while the next year's forecast remains at 1.2% [1] Group 2 - The IMF warns that there are still widespread downside risks to the economic situation, including potential increases in average tariff rates and unresolved trade tensions stemming from the Trump administration [2] - Ongoing uncertainties may begin to suppress economic activity, while geopolitical tensions could exacerbate inflationary pressures and disrupt supply chains [2] - High debt levels, unstable public finances, and various structural imbalances continue to pose significant risks [2]

美联储的决策困境随之加剧：一边是通胀压力如火焰升腾，一边是增长前景如寒冰凝结，政策天平 在"灭火"与"保温"间艰难摇摆，普通人的钱包却成为无声的牺牲品。 美国《财富》杂志网站报道，美国6月核心商品价格创两年来最大涨幅，CPI持续攀升2.7%。这不仅是 冰冷数据，更像是一颗经济"延时炸弹"被引爆的倒计时。 若企业将关税成本悉数转嫁给市场，物价的加速飙升将如沉重枷锁，锁住民众的消费意愿与能力。当普 通家庭在超市货架前犹豫不决时，消费引擎的熄火便近在眼前。 特朗普的关税壁垒，本意打造"美国优先"的护盾，却在经济规律的无情折射下，化作一枚凌厉的回旋 镖。 当核心通胀率飙升成为现实，企业与消费者在转嫁与消化的两难中挣扎，美联储在通胀与增长的钢丝上 战战兢兢。特朗普挥舞关税大棒，最终恐难避免全民买单的结局。 企业同样深陷泥潭。若选择咬牙自吞关税苦果，利润空间被强行挤压，无异于抽走投资与创新的血液。 裁员阴影可能蔓延，劳动力市场随之承压——底层员工与求职者将沦为这场无声战役中的"次生伤员"。 更令人警醒的是，历史教训犹在耳畔：过往研究表明，美国进口商与中国出口商往往共同分担关税成 本，而美国消费者最终承受了大部分实际负担。 ...