Core Viewpoint - Trump's tariff policies, initially celebrated as a success, have led to significant stock market declines, undermining his claims of economic improvement [1][5][10] Group 1: Tariff Policy Impact - Trump's tariff diplomacy has caused dissatisfaction among various countries, with tariffs ranging from 15% to 50% imposed by allies and other nations [3] - The ongoing negotiations with China are complicated by China's control over rare earth materials, making it difficult for Trump to achieve a decisive victory in tariff negotiations [3][9] - The recent stock market crash, including a 0.74% drop in the Dow Jones and a significant decline in the Nasdaq, is closely linked to Trump's tariff policies [5][7] Group 2: Economic Consequences - The tariffs have led to rising domestic prices and increased business costs in the U.S., contributing to weakened consumer and employment power [8] - Despite Trump's calls for the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates to stimulate the economy, the Fed has not complied, leading to increased pressure on the U.S. economy [8] - Job growth has fallen short of expectations, with only 70,000 new jobs added in July compared to the anticipated 100,000 [8] Group 3: Future Outlook - Trump is unlikely to abandon his tariff strategy, viewing it as essential for economic recovery and political leverage, especially in the context of the Russia-Ukraine conflict [9][10] - The effectiveness of Trump's tariff policies remains uncertain, particularly in dealing with a powerful economy like China, which is prepared for ongoing economic competition [9][10] - The long-term success of Trump's tariff strategy will be influenced by the overall direction of the U.S. economy and global economic changes [10]

证券研究报告 | 宏观经济研究*动态点评 2025 年 08 月 17 日 宏观经济研究 内需仍然低迷，政策仍需加码——7 月经济数据点评 数据： 7 月社会消费零售总额为 38780 亿元，同比增长 2.7%；1-7 月工业增加 值增速为 6.3%；全国固定资产投资累计同比增长 1.6%；其中基建投资 （不含电力）同比增长 3.2%，制造业投资同比增长 6.2%，房地产开发 投资下降 12%。 要点： 2025 年 7 月社会消费零售总额为 38780 亿元，同比增长 2.7%，增速较 上月 3.8%放缓。7 月住户存款同比增速 10.27%，较上月放慢 0.51 个百 分点；住户贷款同比增速 2.65%，放慢 0.33 个百分点，居民消费活跃积 极性不强，加杠杆意愿有限。结构上看，家电音像器材类、粮油食品类、 通讯器材类商品拉动作用最为突出，"以旧换新"政策刺激效果依然显著； 石油及制品类、汽车类消费较弱，7 月 OPEC 增产以及市场对美国关税的 担忧对油价形成下拉作用，原油价格震荡下行，石油及制品类零售额同比 负增且降幅扩大，拖累社零同比增速 0.44 个百分点。 1-7 月地产销售同比降幅继续扩大。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - This week, precious metal prices were relatively weak due to unexpected US inflation data. The market is closely watching Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole Central Bank Symposium. If his remarks are dovish, it is recommended to go long on gold and silver at low prices. The expected trading range for the main contract of Shanghai gold is 765 - 794 yuan/gram, and for Shanghai silver is 9045 - 9526 yuan/kilogram [11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Assessment and Market Outlook - **Market Performance**: Affected by unexpected US inflation data, gold and silver prices were weak this week. Shanghai gold fell 1.52% to 775.80 yuan/gram, Shanghai silver fell 0.80% to 9204.00 yuan/kilogram, COMEX gold fell 2.21% to 3381.70 US dollars/ounce, and COMEX silver fell 1.27% to 38.02 US dollars/ounce. The 10 - year US Treasury yield was 4.33%, and the US dollar index fell 0.43% to 97.85 [11]. - **Inflation Data**: In July, the US CPI was 2.7% year - on - year, lower than expected. The core CPI was 3.1% year - on - year, higher than expected. The PPI was 3.3% year - on - year, significantly higher than expected. These data suggest the impact of Trump's tariff policy on US prices, and Fed officials' views on inflation are divided [11]. - **Policy Expectations**: The market expects a 25 - basis - point rate cut by the Fed in September with a probability of 92.1%, and another rate cut in October. The fourth quarter will see the announcement of the new Fed chair, which may further boost rate - cut expectations [11]. - **Technical Analysis**: The Shanghai gold index is approaching the end of a triangular convergence, and it is recommended to buy on dips. The Shanghai silver index is forming a high - level diamond pattern, and it is advisable to look for buying opportunities around the Jackson Hole meeting [13][14]. 3.2 Market Review - **Price and Position Changes**: Gold and silver prices were weak, and both domestic and foreign gold and silver positions declined. As of August 15, the total position of Shanghai gold decreased by 1.95% to 423,600 lots, and COMEX gold decreased by 0.78% to 446,200 lots. The total position of Shanghai silver decreased by 1.16% to 761,000 lots, and COMEX silver decreased by 3% to 156,400 lots [27][29][32]. - **ETF Holdings**: As of August 15, the total holding of gold ETFs was 2185.3 tons, and the total holding of foreign silver ETFs was 27,406 tons [37]. 3.3 Interest Rates and Liquidity - **Interest Rate Trends**: The yield curve of US Treasury bonds and inflation expectations are presented through various charts. The US Federal Reserve's balance sheet shows that the Treasury General Account on the liability side replenished 5.115 billion US dollars, and the reverse repurchase balance decreased by 4.367 billion US dollars [49][52][58]. 3.4 Macroeconomic Data - **Inflation Data**: In July, the US CPI was 2.7% year - on - year, and the core CPI was 3.1% year - on - year. The PPI was 3.3% year - on - year, significantly higher than expected [63]. - **Employment Data**: As of August 9, the number of initial jobless claims in the US was 224,000, lower than expected [66]. - **PMI and PPI**: In July, the US ISM manufacturing PMI was 48, and the non - manufacturing PMI was 50.1, both lower than expected [69]. - **Housing Data**: In June, the annualized number of new housing starts in the US was 1.321 million, and the annualized number of building permits was 1.397 million, both higher than expected [72]. 3.5 Precious Metal Spreads - **Base Spreads**: The base spreads of gold and silver between TD and SHFE are presented through charts, and the spreads of both gold and silver have increased [75][77]. - **Internal and External Spreads**: The internal and external spreads of gold and silver are also presented through charts [81][83]. 3.6 Precious Metal Inventories - **Silver Inventories**: The inventories of silver in Shanghai Gold Exchange, Shanghai Futures Exchange, and COMEX are presented through charts [88][91]. - **Gold Inventories**: The inventories of gold in COMEX and LBMA are presented through charts [93].

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve has officially canceled the "Novel Activities Supervision Program," which was designed to regulate banks' activities in the cryptocurrency and fintech sectors, integrating this oversight into the standard banking regulatory framework [2][3]. Summary by Sections Federal Reserve's Announcement - On August 15, the Federal Reserve announced the closure of the "Novel Activities Supervision Program," which was established in 2023 to enhance the regulation of banks' cryptocurrency activities [3]. - The Federal Reserve Board stated that it has deepened its understanding of the risks associated with these activities and will now incorporate this knowledge into standard regulatory processes [3]. Background of the Program - The program was initiated in response to the 2023 banking crisis, which saw the collapse of three banks closely tied to the cryptocurrency industry: Silicon Valley Bank, Silvergate Bank, and Signature Bank [3]. - The aim was to closely monitor innovative and unverified technologies that could pose risks to the banking system [3]. Key Focus Areas of the Program - The program focused on areas such as cryptocurrency custody, loans collateralized by cryptocurrencies, assistance in digital asset trading, issuance of stablecoins and dollar tokens, and projects utilizing distributed ledger technology [4]. - The latest requirements simplify compliance processes for banks engaging in cryptocurrency activities, while core regulatory principles like anti-money laundering and consumer protection remain unchanged [4]. Regulatory Environment Shift - The Federal Reserve's actions reflect a broader trend of U.S. regulatory agencies becoming more accommodating towards the cryptocurrency industry [5]. - Since the Trump administration, there has been a push to position the U.S. as a "global cryptocurrency hub," with recent regulatory changes allowing banks to independently decide on engaging in cryptocurrency activities [5]. Federal Reserve Officials' Statements - Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee expressed uncertainty regarding interest rate cuts due to mixed inflation data and ongoing tariff uncertainties [6]. - Recent data showed a 0.9% month-over-month increase in the Producer Price Index (PPI) for July, driven primarily by service sector inflation, which rose by 1.1% [6]. - Market expectations indicate a 92% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in September, with varying probabilities for subsequent cuts later in the year [7].

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. national debt has surpassed $37 trillion, growing at an unprecedented rate, raising concerns about fiscal sustainability and future economic implications [1][2][4]. Debt Growth and Fiscal Pressure - The U.S. national debt reached $37 trillion as of August 12, 2024, a significant increase from $36 trillion just months prior, highlighting a rapid acceleration in borrowing [3][4]. - The Peterson Foundation noted that the speed of debt accumulation is faster than ever, with the debt increasing by $1 trillion in approximately 173 days at the current daily growth rate [4]. - The debt ceiling was raised by $5 trillion to $41.1 trillion under the "Big and Beautiful" act, which has contributed to a rapid increase in debt levels [4][8]. Impact on Households and Credit Ratings - If the national debt were distributed among U.S. households, each would owe approximately $280,000, with individuals facing a debt burden of about $108,000 [2]. - The rising debt levels have led to a decline in trust in U.S. fiscal management, with major credit rating agencies downgrading the U.S. credit rating due to deteriorating fiscal conditions [5]. Fiscal Structure and Spending - Mandatory spending on Social Security, Medicare, and interest on the national debt has surged from 34% of total federal spending in 1965 to 73% in 2024, limiting discretionary spending [6][8]. - Interest payments on the national debt are projected to reach $1.4 trillion by 2025, accounting for 26.5% of federal revenue [8]. Revenue Challenges and Tax Policy - The "Big and Beautiful" act is expected to reduce tax revenue by approximately $220 billion in the 2025 fiscal year, exacerbating the fiscal deficit [8][9]. - Despite a significant increase in customs revenue due to tariff policies, the overall impact on reducing the national debt is considered minimal compared to rising healthcare costs [9][10]. Monetary Policy and Interest Rates - There is a notable divide within the Federal Reserve regarding interest rate policies, with some members advocating for rate cuts to alleviate debt burdens while others express concerns about inflation [11][12]. - Recent economic data has fueled expectations for potential interest rate cuts, with market predictions indicating a high probability of rate reductions in the coming months [14].

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's balance sheet shows a significant reduction in asset size since June 2022, with current figures indicating a total of $6.6436 trillion as of August 14, 2025, down $2.2714 trillion from $8.915 trillion in June 2022, primarily due to decreases in Treasury and MBS assets [7]. Group 1: Balance Sheet Overview - The asset side of the balance sheet increased by $2.772 billion this week, with a total balance of $6.6436 trillion, recovering from the previous week [2]. - Treasury assets amount to $4.2048 trillion, while MBS stands at $2.1207 trillion [2]. - On the liability side, reverse repos decreased by $43.674 billion, with a reverse repo account size of $402.201 billion [2]. Group 2: Liquidity and Reserves - Fiscal deposits increased by $51.154 billion, bringing the fiscal deposit account balance to $515.469 billion [3]. - The total liquidity recovery this week is approximately $74.8 billion, indicating a net liquidity withdrawal of about $47.08 billion [4][5]. - The reserve balance reached $3.3328 trillion, showing an increase from the previous week [6]. Group 3: Inflation and Interest Rate Outlook - The Producer Price Index (PPI) rose by 0.9% in July, exceeding market expectations, driven by rising costs in goods and services, which may impact consumer prices [7]. - Concerns about service sector inflation are growing among Federal Reserve officials, with Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee closely monitoring inflation's spread beyond tariff-affected goods [7]. - U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessenet advocates for a more aggressive rate cut next month, suggesting a starting point of a 25 basis point reduction [8]. - San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly expressed increasing support for rate cuts due to a softening labor market, with market expectations shifting away from significant rate cuts following the recent data release [9].

昨晚美国7月PPI数据直接打掉了市场大幅降息的幻想，甚至连9月是否降息也变得不那么笃定。 7月PPI环比涨幅从0.00%飙升至0.9%——这种跳升，年化就接近11%，非常夸张——直接把市场"温和通 胀"的剧本撕了。而且上涨核心动力来自服务价格和关税传导，说明即使消费者现在还没完全感受到， 后面也可能通过商品和服务价格慢慢体现出来。数据公布后，市场完全放弃了50个基点降息的预期。 让我们感受最深的是，圣路易斯联储主席穆萨莱姆在数据发布后的讲话。 首先，他接受的是CNBC长达14分钟的电视专访，意图很明显直接面向专业投资者。这与近期美联储官 员在某个俱乐部、某个协会的低调演讲不同。 穆萨莱姆说了几句挺关键的话，但"字字插中要害"： 来源:金融界 2）核心PCE通胀率在7月可能从一个月前的2.8%回升至2.9%——美联储直接发出对关键数据的预测，非 常罕见，几乎等于官方剧透。 3）企业告诉我们，成本传导大约需要三到六个月——关税的影响还没完全显现出来。 4）关税对通胀的影响很可能在未来几个月消退，但有相当大的可能会更持久——他没完全唱衰，但意 思是别太乐观，关税的通胀影响可能比想象的更顽固。 降息故事又被搅了。这是 ...

【技术分析】 【 基本面分析】 非农走弱、CPI升幅有限，加之特朗普与财长贝森特持续施压美联储降息，市场对9月降息预期高企，美元承压， 黄金借势反弹。晚间将公布7月PPI及当周初请失业金数据，若PPI延续温和且失业金人数上升，料将为黄金提供进 一步上行动能。 【技术分析】 黄金一小时图，走势震荡后向上走高，并刷新短线高点，显示买盘增强；如后续回落未击破前期支撑，则走势或 继续向上，故建议短多操作。 操作建议：建议3358短多，止损3346以下 ，目标3374-3385。 美油一小时图，走势未能突破压力，并向下回吐涨幅，反应卖压仍较强势；如后续反弹未能突破阻力，则走势或 继续向下，故建议短空操作。 操作建议：建议62.17短空，止损63.12以上，目标60.74-61.34。 【交易操作有一定风险，建议并非获利保证，投资者应评估自身资金与仓位管理】 风险警告：以上的内容仅供参考，并不代表 ZFX山海证券的立场。ZFX山海证券不承担根据本文而进行的任何交 易操作所造成的任何形式的损失。请大家鉴定自己的想法，做好相应的风险控制。 ...

他重申了本周早些时候的观点，即对于7月消费者价格指数(CPI)中显示的高企服务业通胀感到担忧，但 强调不应对单月数据反应过度，包括周五公布的进口价格上涨数据。 今年以来，美联储官员一直按兵不动，维持利率不变，以观察关税和其他政策变化对美国经济的影响。 根据利率期货市场的定价，投资者普遍押注美联储将在9月会议上重启降息。古尔斯比则强调，希望等 待更多经济数据出炉，并指出美国经济"依然有很多韧性"。 美国芝加哥联储主席古尔斯比表示，在确信持续的通胀压力未再升温之前，他希望至少再看到一份通胀 数据。 古尔斯比周五在接受采访时表示，近期的通胀数据"有些参差不齐"，他认为"至少还需要再看一份数 据，才能判断我们是否依然走在'黄金路径'上。" 与此同时，美国工业产出在7月环比下降0.1%，占比四分之三的制造业产出在6月上修后保持不变，采 矿和公用事业产出双双下滑。制造业年初曾在关税出台前接到大量订单，但自此以后，受需求降温、资 本支出放缓及贸易政策不确定性影响，产量趋于疲软。生产商还面临消费者支出不均、关税推高部分原 材料价格等挑战。 在贸易政策方面，美国总统特朗普周五在飞往阿拉斯加与俄罗斯总统普京会晤途中表示，将在未来 ...

来源：环球市场播报 经济学家Marc Sumerlin在接受媒体采访时表示，美联储联邦基金利率"过高"，由于收益率曲线倒挂，降 息50个基点是行得通的。 "你知道你可以以这样的幅度降息，而不会产生负面影响，"他说。 他补充说，这里的问题是"冗余"。 Sumerlin是小布什政府时期的官员，据报道他在美联储主席人选的考虑之列。 Sumerlin补充说，住房对美国经济而言，是市场中最薄弱的部分。 他指出，他并不认为美联储的人员规模存在问题，但员工的"设置完全错误"。 ...