新华社纽约11月19日电（记者徐静）美国联邦储备委员会19日公布的10月货币政策会议纪要显示，由于 经济温和扩张、劳动力市场逐步降温但未现急剧恶化，美联储官员对12月是否进一步降息出现明显分 歧。 ...

②米兰：未来"有可能"再次缩减其资产负债表。 ③美联储10月会议纪要显示官员们存在严重分歧：10月降息行动中，有数人反对降息，还有一些人倾向 于降息但也接受维持利率不变。数人认为应该在12月继续降息，许多人认为应按兵不动。 英国通胀七个月来首次回落，市场加大对英国央行12月降息的押注。 欧盟筹划第20轮对俄制裁，目标直指"影子舰队"油轮。 11月20日资讯分享 周三，现货黄金盘中一度冲高至4130美元/盎司上方，但在强势美元的限制下日内涨幅大幅收窄，最终 收涨0.26%，报4078.22美元/盎司； 受美国重新推动俄乌和谈的消息影响，国际原油盘中跳水。WTI原油失守60美元关口，最终收跌 1.96%，报59.4美元/桶；布伦特原油最终收跌1.89%，报63.26美元/桶。 俄乌局势重大进展：据悉美俄双方秘密拟定28点和谈框架，要求乌克兰割地、裁军及限制武器。该框架 的讨论几乎没有征求乌克兰或欧洲的意见。白宫预计俄乌将于11月底前达成框架协议。据报乌克兰反对 该协议。 美联储——①美国当局取消10月非农就业报告，11月报告改期至12月16日公布，即美联储在12月议息时 将缺乏最新的非农数据参考。 ...

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-11-20 市场情绪悲观，镍不锈钢保持弱势震荡 镍品种 市场分析 2025-11-19日沪镍主力合约2601开于115300元/吨，收于115650元/吨，较前一交易日收盘变化0.29%，当日成交量为 82563（-34853）手，持仓量为85012（6815）手。 期货方面：昨日沪镍主力合约换月至2601合约，整体走势有小幅反弹迹象，但主要是承接昨日大跌后的技术性反 抽。全天价格波动仅660元/吨，反映市场交投谨慎，观望情绪浓厚。宏观方面，随着美国政府停摆结束，相关数据 将在近期发布，可能会对12月降息产生影响，目前降息概率已不足50%。 镍矿方面：Mysteel方面消息，镍矿市场招标落地，镍矿价格维稳运行。菲律宾方面北部 Eramen1.4%镍矿招标落地 至42美元/湿吨，Benguet1.25%镍矿招标尚未有成交落地。下游镍铁价格承压，铁厂当前对原料镍矿采购多观望， 仍持压价心理。印尼方面，11月(二期)内贸基准价走跌0.12-0.2美元/湿吨，内贸升水方面，当前主流升水维持+26， 升水区间多在+25-26。 现货方面：金川集团上海市场销售价格119500元/吨，较 ...

Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings are provided in the given content. Core Viewpoints - The supply - side contraction - induced cyclical inflection point of oil prices has not been seen yet, and the rebound space of oil prices due to geopolitical factors is generally limited, with the market showing a mainly weak - oscillating trend [2]. - Precious metals are oscillating at high levels, waiting for new drivers and technical directional guidance [3]. - The overall trend of various commodities is affected by multiple factors such as supply - demand relationships, policy changes, and cost fluctuations, and different commodities have different market outlooks and investment suggestions [2 - 48]. Summary by Categories Energy - **Crude Oil**: Overnight international oil prices declined, with the Brent 01 contract down 1.77%. The U.S. is promoting a Russia - Ukraine agreement, suppressing geopolitical risk premiums. U.S. EIA commercial crude oil inventories decreased by 342,600 barrels last week. The supply - side contraction - induced cyclical inflection point of oil prices has not appeared, and the market is mainly weak - oscillating [2]. - **Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The logic of high - sulfur fuel oil being weaker than low - sulfur fuel oil continues. Low - sulfur fuel oil is strong due to supply - side disruptions, but there is medium - term supply pressure. High - sulfur fuel oil supply may become looser in the medium term [21]. - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG)**: The expected import cost of international LPG in December is rising. The improvement in the profitability of butane dehydrogenation units boosts the downstream chemical enterprises' enthusiasm for starting operations, and the demand for the combustion end has improved. LPG is expected to be strong - oscillating [23]. - **Natural Gas**: No relevant information in this report. - **Coal**: - **Coking Coal**: The market's expectation of coal mine supply guarantee has increased, and the price has declined. The total inventory of coking coal has increased slightly, and the price may be weak - oscillating [17]. - **Steam Coal**: No relevant information in this report. - **Uranium**: No relevant information in this report. Metals - **Precious Metals**: - **Gold & Silver**: Overnight, precious metals were strong - oscillating with sharp intraday fluctuations. The Fed's October meeting minutes showed serious differences among officials, and the market's expectation of a December interest rate cut dropped below 40%. Precious metals are waiting for new drivers [3]. - **Platinum & Palladium**: No relevant information in this report. - **Base Metals**: - **Copper**: Overnight, LME copper rose, and SHFE copper was oscillating with reduced positions. The Fed's meeting minutes showed differences, and the expectation of a December interest rate cut dropped to 30%. Chile raised its average copper price forecast for this year and next. Hold short positions with a stop - loss of 87,000 yuan [4]. - **Aluminum**: Overnight, SHFE aluminum was oscillating. This week, non - ferrous metals as a whole adjusted, and SHFE aluminum fell back from a high level. The market is still looking for economic prospects and interest rate cut clues, and the aluminum market is expected to be short - term oscillating [5]. - **Zinc**: The TC of both domestic and overseas mines decreased, and smelters' production cuts in November gradually materialized. Domestic zinc social inventories decreased, and the market is expected to be short - term oscillating and medium - term bearish [8]. - **Lead**: The external and domestic inventories increased, and the market fundamentals weakened. The support level for SHFE lead is temporarily seen at 17,100 yuan/ton [9]. - **Nickel & Stainless Steel**: SHFE nickel had narrow - range fluctuations, and the market trading was dull. The inventory of pure nickel and nickel - iron increased, and nickel prices are expected to be weak [10]. - **Tin**: Overnight, LME tin rose first and then fell, and SHFE tin opened high and closed low. The resumption of production in low - grade mines and the efficiency of Indonesia's production capacity rectification are the keys to deepening the tight supply. Hold short positions with a stop - loss of 295,000 yuan [11]. - **Rare Earths**: No relevant information in this report. Chemicals - **Polypropylene & Plastic & Propylene**: The two - olefin futures continued to decline, with a divergence between short - term futures and spot prices. The supply pressure of plastic and polypropylene is difficult to alleviate, and the long - term trend is bearish [28]. - **PVC & Caustic Soda**: The cost support for PVC weakened, and it continued to decline. The demand for PVC exports to India improved, but the overall demand boost was limited. Caustic soda is in a downward trend [29]. - **PX & PTA**: Oil prices fell, but PX was strong, supporting PTA prices. PTA's profitability was poor, and the number of device overhauls increased. The terminal demand for PTA weakened [30]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The weekly output of ethylene glycol increased slightly, and port inventories continued to rise significantly. The supply pressure is large, and the medium - term demand is weak [31]. - **Short - Fiber & Bottle - Chip**: Short - fiber has no new investment pressure, but the demand is expected to weaken. Bottle - chip demand is fading, and there is long - term over - capacity pressure [32]. - **Glass**: Glass continued to decline. The inventory pressure in the middle - stream is high, and the profit is narrowing. The follow - up may fluctuate with the cost side [33]. - **20 - Rubber & Natural Rubber & Butadiene Rubber**: The international crude oil price fell sharply, and the price of Thai raw materials rose. The demand is slowly weakening, and the supply of natural rubber is decreasing while that of synthetic rubber is increasing [34]. - **Soda Ash**: The cost side of soda ash moved down, and it continued to decline. The industry inventory decreased slightly. The long - term supply is expected to be in excess [35]. Agriculture - **Soybean & Soybean Meal**: The night - session of the main contract of Dalian soybean meal futures followed the decline of U.S. soybeans. The South American soybean planting progress is slow, and the domestic soybean supply is sufficient while the crushing profit is poor [36]. - **Soybean Oil & Palm Oil**: Overnight, U.S. soybean oil fell. The policy change may narrow the price difference between global vegetable oils and U.S. domestic vegetable oils. Palm oil may have a phased bottom [37]. - **Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil**: The focus of the rapeseed market is on the supply side. The impact of Australian rapeseed on the supply side is mainly on the March contract and far - month contracts. The short - term strategy is bearish [38]. - **Soybean No.1**: The price of the main contract of soybean No.1 futures fell rapidly from a high level. The price difference between domestic and imported soybeans decreased, and imported soybeans may be strong - oscillating in the short term [39]. - **Corn**: The night - session of Dalian corn futures was weak - oscillating. The new corn supply in Northeast China increased less, and farmers were more reluctant to sell. The downstream inventory is low, and the 01 contract may continue to correct [40]. - **Livestock & Poultry**: - **Pig**: The pig futures were weak - oscillating, and the spot price rebounded slightly. The pig price may have a second bottoming in the first half of next year [41]. - **Chicken & Eggs**: The egg spot price continued to fall, and the market may be weak in the short term. Hold short positions in near - month contracts [42]. - **Cotton**: U.S. cotton fell back, waiting for the weekly export data. The domestic Xinjiang cotton purchase is basically over, and the new cotton listing brings pressure to the market. Zhengzhou cotton is expected to be range - oscillating [43]. - **Sugar**: Overnight, U.S. sugar was oscillating. India and Thailand are gradually starting to crush sugar, and the domestic market's focus is on the new - season output forecast [43]. - **Apple**: The futures price of apples was oscillating at a high level. The spot price of cold - stored apples is strong, but there may be inventory pressure in the far - month contracts [44]. - **Timber**: The futures price of timber was oscillating. The supply is expected to be stable, and the demand supports the price. The low inventory provides strong support [45]. - **Paper Pulp**: The paper pulp futures continued to fall. The port inventory increased, and the downstream procurement willingness was average. The price may continue to correct [46]. Others - **Shipping**: The market has digested the expected price increase of container shipping in early December. The 12 - contract is relatively resistant to decline, and the far - month contracts are expected to be low - level oscillating [20]. - **Financial Futures**: - **Stock Index Futures**: A - shares were boosted by the rise of heavy - weight sectors, and the performance of futures contracts was differentiated. The short - term stock market should adopt a relatively defensive strategy [47]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Treasury bond futures closed down across the board. The market risk preference change may bring new opportunities [48].

李丹，华尔街见闻 美联储内部的鹰派观点体现在，纪要声明提到，讨论风险管理考量时， 美联储会议纪要显示，上月末的货币政策会议上，决策者对12月是否降息存在严重分歧，认为今年不必 再降息的人数未达到多数，但超过了支持降息的人数，一些中间派要视数据而定；对于缩减资产负债表 （缩表）的量化紧缩（QT）行动，则几乎完全一致认为应该停止；在金融稳定的风险方面，一些人担 心股市无序下跌。 美东时间11月19日周三公布的美联储会议纪要写道： "在讨论货币政策的近期走向时，与会者对（货币政策）委员会（FOMC）12月会议最有可 能采取的政策决定表达了截然不同的看法。大多数（Most）与会者认为，随着委员会逐步 转向更为中性的政策立场，可能适合"进一步降息， "然而，其中一些（several）人暗示，他们未必认为12月会议适合再降息25个基点。一些 （Several）与会者评估认为，如果在接下来的两次会议之间，经济发展符合他们的预期，可 能较为适合12月"进一步降息。"许多（Many）与会者表示，根据他们的经济展望，在今年 剩余时间内，可能适合"维持利率不变。 所有与会者一致认为，货币政策并非一成不变，而是会受到各种最新数据、不 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall commodity futures market shows complex trends with different metals, agricultural products, and energy - chemical products having their own supply - demand situations, and corresponding trading strategies are recommended based on these situations [2][7][8]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Precious Metals - **Gold**: Market strengthened on Wednesday, but London gold failed to hold above $4100. Fed's internal divergence on December rate - cut, employment report changes, and domestic gold ETF inflows are key factors. Suggest buying at support levels [2]. - **Silver**: Supply tightness is gradually easing. Recommend gradually reducing long positions [2]. Base Metals - **Copper**: Price stabilized yesterday. With improved risk appetite and low rate - cut expectations, and considering the supply - demand situation, it is recommended to buy on dips [2]. - **Aluminum**: Aluminum price may maintain oscillatory adjustment after a decline, with improved spot trading but continued reduction of long positions in the main contract [2]. - **Alumina**: Supply - demand surplus persists, and the price is expected to be weak and oscillatory [2]. - **Zinc**: Price declined yesterday. Due to supply shortages and demand - side factors, it is recommended to wait and see [3]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Price rebounded significantly. With planned production cuts and cost support, long positions can gradually take profits, and short positions should be entered with caution [3]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Current demand is strong, but long - term demand may decline. It is recommended to try long positions at low levels and be cautious about chasing highs, or consider selling put options [3]. - **Polycrystalline Silicon**: Price rose. Near - month contracts are strong, but it is recommended to be cautious about chasing highs due to factors like slow progress of the storage platform [3]. - **Tin**: Price trended strongly. With improved risk appetite and supply - demand situation, it is recommended to buy on dips [4]. Black Industry - **Rebar**: Supply - demand is weak, and there is significant structural differentiation. Hold short positions in hot - rolled coil 2605, and the reference range for RB01 is 3030 - 3080 [5]. - **Iron Ore**: Supply - demand is weakening. Hold short positions in iron ore 2605, and the reference range for I01 is 760 - 795 [5]. - **Coking Coal**: Supply - demand is weakening. Hold short positions in coking coal 2605, and the reference range for JM01 is 1110 - 1150 [5]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal**: US soybeans enter an oscillatory phase, and the domestic market is temporarily weak. The medium - term trend depends on tariff policies and production in the producing areas [7]. - **Corn**: As the supply in Northeast China is approaching, the futures price is expected to decline oscillatory. Hold short positions [7]. - **Oils and Fats**: Enter an oscillatory and slightly strong phase. Pay attention to future production and biodiesel policies [7]. - **Sugar**: International sugar price rebounds, and the domestic market will follow the international trend to decline. Short in the futures market and sell call options [7]. - **Cotton**: Temporarily wait and see, with a range - bound strategy of 13300 - 13600 yuan/ton [7]. - **Eggs**: The futures price is expected to be weak and oscillatory due to decreased supply pressure and weakening demand [7]. - **Pigs**: The supply is still abundant, and the futures price is expected to be weak and oscillatory [8]. - **Apples**: Wait and see due to low inventory and high - quality apple price increases [8]. Energy and Chemicals - **LLDPE**: Short - term oscillatory, and it is recommended to short at high levels or conduct spread trading in the long - term [8]. - **PVC**: Supply - demand is weak, and it is recommended to short or conduct spread trading [8]. - **PTA**: Take profits on long positions in PX, and short the processing margin of PTA in the long - term [8][9]. - **Glass**: Supply - demand is in a weak balance, and it is recommended to conduct spread trading [9]. - **PP**: Short - term oscillatory and weak, and it is recommended to short at high levels or conduct spread trading in the long - term [9]. - **MEG**: Supply - demand accumulates inventory, and it is recommended to short at high levels for the 01 contract [9]. - **Crude Oil**: Fundamentally bearish, but with high geopolitical uncertainty, it is expected to oscillate in the short - term. Short at high levels if Russian oil reduction is less than 500,000 barrels per day [9][10]. - **Styrene**: Short - term oscillatory, with the upside limited by the import window [10]. - **Soda Ash**: Supply - demand is balanced, and it is recommended to wait and see [10]. - **Urea**: The futures price is expected to oscillate in the short - term due to export news and supply - demand situation [10].

昨晚美G大跌，币圈却向上回生，这波底部正好卡在大趋势线附近，见底不会那么快，至少得熬几周。小资金要学会耐心等，大资金要顺势而为，目前空 头更容易赚，要学会去放空。 今日热点机会： 1.巴尔金观点：赞同鲍威尔，12月降息不确定，通胀和就业风险并存。 2.新一批数据发布：CFTC周报、PPI等新数据敲定，周四补发停摆期失业金申请数。 3.Cathie Wood加仓：Ark Invest通过两ETF增持Coinbase、Circle和Bullish等加密股。 4.市场乐观声：Tom Lee称本周或近底部；Bitwise CIO视作"难得长线买入机会"。 5.巨鲸吸筹：Glassnode数据，10月末起，持超1000 BTC地址数从周五起大幅增加。 6.山寨反弹：CEX上STRK、ASTER等币种昨起大涨，持续性取决于大盘反弹力度。 策略：关注3080这个位置，若1-2小时级别收盘站稳，则多头继续看涨，上方压力位3168、3220、3270附近。若1-2小时级别跌破无法收回，则开始走回 调，下方支撑位3030、2983、2942附近。 山寨 不同链的土狗 meme 玩法大不相同！需根据热点来源选对链！老外热点看SOL ...

会议纪要显示，上月末的最近一次货币政策会议上，美联储决策者对12月是否降息存在严重分歧，支持降息的一方并未在人数上占绝对优势，对于缩减资产负 债表（缩表）的量化紧缩（QT）行动，则几乎完全一致认为应该停止。在金融稳定的风险方面，一些人担心股市无序下跌。 美东时间11月19日周三公布的美联储会议纪要写道： "在讨论货币政策的近期走向时， 与会者对 （货币政策）委员会（FOMC） 12月会议最有可能采取的政策决定表达了截然不同的看法 。大多数（Most）与会者 认为，随着委员会逐步转向更为中性的政策立场，可能适合"进一步降息， "然而，其中一些（several）人暗示，他们未必认为12月会议适合再降息25个基点。 一些（Several） 与会者评估 认为 ，如果在接下来的两次会议之间，经济 发展符合他们的预期， 可能较为适合12月"进一步降息 。" 许多（Many） 与会者表示，根据他们的经济展望，在今年剩余时间内， 可能适合"维持利率不变 。 所有与会者一致认为，货币政策并非一成不变，而是会受到各种最新数据、不断变化的经济前景以及风险平衡的影响。 媒体指出，在美联储会议纪要中常用的所谓计数术语中，"许多"（Ma ...

北京时间周四（20日）凌晨，美联储公布今年10月联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）政策会议纪要。 纪要显示，美联储官员就12月是否降息存在 "强烈分歧的观点"，越来越多官员认为通胀下降的进展已 陷入停滞，可能对继续宽松持谨慎的观点。 截至记者发稿时，芝加哥商品交易所的美联储观察工具显示，12月10日降息概率跌至32.8%，较1个月 前的超90%大幅回落。 分歧巨大 在上月的会议上，美联储以10票赞成、2票反对的结果将利率下调25个基点，这也是连续第二次降息。 美联储主席鲍威尔在当时新闻发布会上表示，12月降息并非 "既定结论"。 最新会议纪要显示，多位与会者明确反对降息，担忧委员会2%通胀目标的推进工作已陷入停滞。他们 同时表示，若通胀未能及时回落至2%，长期通胀预期可能会上升。 官员们在会议中积极寻求折中方案：既要应对数据缺失的问题，又要权衡通胀上升与就业市场下滑的双 重风险，甚至警惕若市场对人工智能相关投资 "重新评估"，可能引发股市无序下跌的情况。 美联储就12月是否降息存在 "强烈分歧的观点"，越来越多官员担忧通胀下降的进展。许多美联储官员 明确表示，希望美联储在12月维持利率稳定。这些官员称，进一步降息 ...

记者丨黎雨桐 编辑丨曾静娇 北京时间20日凌晨，美国三大股指小幅收涨，道指涨0.1%报46138.77点，标普500指数涨0.38%报6642.16点，纳指涨0.59%报22564.23点。 | 道琼斯 | 纳斯达克 | 标普500 | | --- | --- | --- | | 46138.77 | 22564.23 | 6642.16 | | +47.03 +0.10% +131.38 +0.59% +24.84 +0.38% | | | | 中国金龙指数 | 纳指100期货 | 标普500期货 | | 7673.21 | 24958.75 | 6696.00 | | -119.79 -1.54% +363.00 +1.48% | | +56.25 +0.85% | 消息面上，英伟达公布财报显示，英伟达第三财季营收为570.1亿美元，超出市场预期的549.2亿美元；净利润为319.1亿美元，同比大涨65%， 经调整后的每股收益为1.30 美元，高于市场预期的1.25美元。数据中心——英伟达最重要的业务——Q3营收为512亿美元，轻松超过分析师预 测的490.9亿美元，同比增长66%。其中，"计算"（即GP ...