证券研究报告 2025 年 11 月 7 日 星期五 【A 股市场大势研判】 A 股全天震荡走强，沪指重回 4000 点 市场表现： | 指数名称 | 收盘点位 | 涨跌幅 | 涨跌 | 上证指数分时图 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 上证指数 | 4007.76 | 0.97% | 38.51 | | | 深证成指 | 13452.42 | 1.73% | 228.86 | | | 沪深 300 | 4693.40 | 1.43% | 66.15 | | | 创业板 | 3224.62 | 1.84% | 58.39 | | | 科创 50 | 1436.86 | 3.34% | 46.46 | | | 北证 50 | 1519.81 | -0.38% | -5.75 | | 资料来源：东莞证券研究所，iFinD 数据 板块排名： | 申万行业表现前五 | | | 申万行业表现后五 | 概 | 念板块表现前五 | 概念板块表现后五 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 有色金属 | 3.05% ...

Core Viewpoint - The banking sector is showing strong performance, with the Wind China Industry Index ranking second and a rise of over 2% in the banking ETF fund tracking the CSI Bank Index [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The CSI Bank Index, tracked by the banking ETF fund, is currently in positive territory [1] - As of November 3, the index has a 12-month dividend yield of 3.94% [1] Group 2: Investment Recommendations - Zhongtai Securities suggests that bank stocks are transitioning from a "pro-cyclical" to a "weak cycle" phase, indicating a positive outlook for the sector's stability and sustainability [1] - Two main investment themes are recommended: 1. Focus on city and rural commercial banks with regional advantages and strong certainty 2. Emphasize high dividend stability, particularly in large banks and joint-stock banks [1]

Core Insights - The performance of the Hongde Honghui Mixed Fund has shown significant growth, with a net value increase of 45.46% in Q3 2025, compared to a benchmark return of 8.21% [1] - The Chinese stock market experienced a strong performance in Q3, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 12.73% and the Hang Seng Index increasing by 11.56%, while the ChiNext Index surged by 50.40% [3] - The technology sector, particularly the AI industry chain, has been a major driver of growth, with companies in software, chips, and new materials benefiting from a favorable market environment [3] Fund Performance - The Hongde Honghui Mixed Fund has achieved a cumulative net value growth rate of 195.46% since its inception on November 16, 2016, significantly outperforming the benchmark return of 41.54% [1] - The fund manager, Yu Haocheng, has focused on sectors such as AI, new energy, and consumer electronics, which have performed well, leading to substantial net value increases [4] Market Trends - The Q3 performance of various sectors showed significant divergence, with electronics, communication, and innovative pharmaceuticals leading the gains, while banking and petrochemical sectors lagged behind [3] - The AI industry chain is expected to continue driving growth, with a favorable valuation environment providing a strong buying opportunity for investors [3] - The outlook for Q4 suggests a potential shift towards a more balanced market style, with a focus on leading companies in AI and new energy, as well as cyclical sectors like chemicals and new materials [4]

Group 1 - The A-share market is expected to continue a slow rising trend due to multiple favorable factors, including the "14th Five-Year Plan" and the commencement of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut cycle [11][12][13] - Current index levels are considered to have better quality compared to 2015, with significantly lower valuation levels, suggesting that excessive focus on index points is unnecessary [3][11] - The market is entering a period of performance and policy vacuum after the third quarter reports, which may lead to a phase of consolidation [8][14] Group 2 - Short-term market movements are characterized by narrow fluctuations, with the technology growth sector losing some attractiveness, necessitating a wait for upward breakout factors [4][15] - Fund holdings have shifted, with a notable increase in electronic sector allocations, indicating a potential for structural adjustments in the market [6][7] - The market is expected to maintain a balanced configuration, with a focus on sectors like brokerage, steel, and consumer goods, transitioning from a "technology-first" approach to a more "balanced" allocation style [14][15] Group 3 - The upcoming months are anticipated to be a period of consolidation, with a focus on new industry trends such as commercial aerospace, AI applications, and innovative pharmaceuticals [8][10] - The market's performance is likely to be influenced by the economic recovery and the gradual improvement of demand-side conditions, particularly in sectors like energy storage [4][10] - The overall market sentiment is expected to remain stable, with a potential for structural opportunities in high-growth sectors [9][16]

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced fluctuations after the Shanghai Composite Index surpassed the 4000-point mark, with expectations of accelerated market rotation in November, favoring technology growth sectors while maintaining a more balanced approach compared to Q3 [1] - Institutions suggest investors begin to position in undervalued sectors with expected profit recovery, while continuing to explore opportunities in technology growth based on economic outlook [1] Tax Policy Impact - The Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration announced tax policies regarding gold sales, stating that taxpayers not using the Shanghai Gold Exchange or Shanghai Futures Exchange must pay VAT according to existing regulations, while transactions through these exchanges are exempt from VAT [2] Fund Performance Guidelines - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) released a draft for public consultation on performance benchmarks for publicly offered securities investment funds, aiming to enhance the regulatory framework for fund managers and establish a performance benchmark element library [3] State-Owned Enterprise Reform - The State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission (SASAC) emphasized the need for high-quality completion of state-owned enterprise reform and risk management, focusing on safety and stability to support high-quality development [4] Investment Outlook - China Galaxy Securities indicated that macro policies are expected to strengthen, creating a favorable environment for the A-share market, with a positive trend expected to continue despite short-term fluctuations [5] - Industrial Securities proposed two strategies for year-end positioning: focusing on technology growth while exploring cyclical sectors benefiting from economic recovery [6] - GF Securities advised against frequent style switching in November, recommending initial positions in undervalued sectors with profit recovery potential and maintaining focus on high-growth sectors [7] Sector-Specific Insights - Investment in leading consumer stocks is seen as having a favorable risk-return profile, especially as the market adjusts to previous gains in technology and metals sectors [9] - Q4 is expected to see continued interest in humanoid robots and dividend-paying sectors, with confidence in the performance of companies with strong fundamentals and clear industry trends [9] - The internet giants are anticipated to benefit from the ongoing AI wave, leveraging their financial strength and technological capabilities to enhance their business fundamentals [9]

Core Conclusions - The bull market is entering its second phase, transitioning from a "technology bull" to a "wealth bull" [1] - After the "super macro month" in October, the market is expected to favor cyclical stocks as a better allocation choice due to high valuations and potential adjustments if EPS does not improve [1][5] - Current market conditions present an optimal window for investing in cyclical stocks, supported by five key reasons [1] Reason 1: Cyclical Stocks as "Friends of Time" - Since Q3, the market has begun to trade based on changes in profitability (△ROE), indicating a return to investment in economic recovery [21] - Cyclical stocks have lagged behind in price compared to improvements in fundamentals, making them more favorable during market adjustments [21][24] Reason 2: Potential Requirements of the "14th Five-Year Plan" - The "14th Five-Year Plan" suggests that by 2035, per capita GDP should reach the level of moderately developed countries, requiring an annual growth rate of 4.1% plus inflation and currency appreciation [2][30] - Achieving this goal necessitates a combination of moderate inflation and currency appreciation to establish a growth baseline for cyclical industries [2][31] Reason 3: Cross-Border Capital Inflow, Repeating 2019-2021 - Recent reports emphasize that cross-border capital inflow will effectively support domestic demand, with signs of cyclical improvement already emerging [3][33] - The return of cross-border capital is expected to drive a revaluation of global commodities and domestic manufacturing, similar to the core asset bull market seen post-pandemic [3][36] Reason 4: New Regulations for Public Funds Guiding "Rebalancing" - The introduction of new regulations for public funds is expected to lead to a rebalancing of holdings between TMT and cyclical stocks [4][39] - As public funds have not significantly increased new issuances, the shift from cyclical to TMT stocks has resulted in a decrease in the pricing power of TMT stocks [4][40] Reason 5: Slowdown in Incremental Capital Inflows, Entering a Competitive Phase - Since September, there has been a noticeable slowdown in the inflow of various types of capital, indicating a shift in market dynamics [5][44] - The market is transitioning into a phase of competition, with cyclical stocks likely to benefit from this change [5][51] Investment Recommendations: Transitioning from "Technology Bull" to "Wealth Bull" - The report suggests continuing to invest in cyclical stocks, particularly in sectors such as non-ferrous metals, new consumption, and high-end manufacturing, as these areas are expected to benefit from the current economic conditions [5][54]

Overall Analysis - The overall performance of A-shares in Q3 2025 shows a significant improvement in profitability, with a year-on-year growth rate of 11.55% in net profit attributable to shareholders, a substantial increase compared to Q2 2025 [1][11] - The cumulative net profit growth rate for the first three quarters of 2025 reached 5.55%, indicating a recovery in profitability driven by active trading in the A-share market and notable improvements in non-banking sectors [1][10] Industry Analysis - The industries with the highest year-on-year net profit growth in Q3 2025 include steel (+202.9%), defense industry (+73.2%), non-bank financials (+64.9%), media (+57.2%), and non-ferrous metals (+50.9%), primarily concentrated in anti-involution and high-prosperity TMT sectors [3][4] - The recovery in profitability is particularly evident in upstream and midstream sectors, while downstream consumption remains under pressure [3][4] Profitability Analysis - The return on equity (ROE) for A-shares (excluding financials and petrochemicals) rebounded slightly to 6.31% in Q3 2025, although it remains at a low level, necessitating further observation for upward elasticity [2][25] - The main drivers for the ROE rebound include improvements in net profit margin and stabilization of asset turnover, with a slight decrease in the debt-to-asset ratio [2][25] Cash Flow Analysis - The net cash flow as a percentage of revenue in Q3 2025 is at a relatively low level compared to the past decade, with operating cash flow showing improvement year-on-year [2][3] - The financing cash flow has also increased year-on-year, indicating some debt repayment pressure on enterprises [2][3] Sector Performance - The growth rates of net profit attributable to shareholders in various sectors show that the innovation and entrepreneurship sector has significantly improved, while the growth style continues to lead in profitability [2][21] - The main board, STAR Market, and ChiNext have shown stable performance, with the STAR Market achieving a remarkable year-on-year net profit growth of 65.40% in Q3 2025 [2][21]

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in A-shares on October 29 is accompanied by underlying concerns, suggesting that the market's enthusiasm may be short-lived and could lead to a pullback [1][25]. Market Performance - On October 29, A-shares saw a significant increase in trading volume, rising from 1.2 trillion to 2.29 trillion, indicating a lively market atmosphere, but this volume spike may not be a reliable signal of sustained growth [1][5]. - The market index crossed the 4000-point mark, with technical indicators suggesting overbought conditions, which typically necessitate a correction to consolidate the trend [3][5]. Sector Analysis - The market is experiencing a clear sector divergence, with cyclical sectors like energy, metals, and photovoltaics performing well, while defensive sectors such as beverages and liquor are declining [9][11]. - Institutional investors are showing a preference for sectors like AI and automotive components, while also significantly buying into photovoltaics and quantum technology [11][17]. External Influences - The upcoming Federal Reserve meeting on October 30 is expected to influence market sentiment, with a general anticipation of a 25 basis point rate cut, adding uncertainty to the market [13][17]. - Concurrently, geopolitical factors, such as Trump's comments on tariffs and fentanyl, introduce additional market uncertainties [15][21]. Policy Support - Recent measures from the State Administration of Foreign Exchange to facilitate cross-border trade and initiatives from the Beijing Securities Regulatory Commission to attract long-term capital are seen as solid policy support for the A-share market [15][17]. - These policy actions are expected to alleviate external trade pressures and provide a more stable influx of long-term capital into the A-share market [17][21]. Investment Strategy - The recommendation is to wait for a market pullback and stabilization before increasing positions, emphasizing a cautious approach rather than aggressive buying [7][25]. - Maintaining a controlled position and avoiding impulsive trading decisions is highlighted as a prudent strategy in the current market environment [23][25].

Core Viewpoint - The market is experiencing rapid shifts in focus and sector rotation, prompting investors to seek stability amidst fluctuations, particularly around the key 4000-point level of the Shanghai Composite Index [1] Group 1: Market Analysis - The fourth quarter is expected to see a phase of oscillation and rebalancing, with a significant portion of industry valuations deemed reasonable, suggesting that the 4000-point level may serve as a temporary peak [2] - The technology sector is under pressure to meet performance expectations, leading to a concentration of investment in leading tech firms, while cyclical stocks are gaining attention due to positive PPI forecasts [2][3] Group 2: Investment Opportunities - Four potential investment opportunities are identified: 1. Anticipated improvements in liquidity by 2026 due to economic characteristics and strategic national initiatives [3] 2. The consumer sector may see stabilization in core CPI and improvements in consumer loan interest rates [3] 3. Precious metals and resource stocks are likely to benefit from external interest rate cuts and low valuations [3] 4. Increased growth support from government initiatives and new industry themes emerging from the 14th Five-Year Plan [3] Group 3: Sector Insights - The consumer sector is experiencing structural highlights despite overall pressure, with potential recovery in sectors like liquor and dining if regulatory pressures ease [4] - The innovative drug sector is currently in a correction phase after a strong performance earlier in the year, with a focus on companies with established business development (BD) assets [5] - The cosmetics industry is showing robust growth driven by domestic brand development and online channel expansion [6] Group 4: Growth Sectors - The internet media sector is seen as resilient due to domestic demand and neutral tariffs, with gaming identified as a particularly attractive investment area [7][8] - The gaming industry is characterized by stable demand and a favorable regulatory environment, suggesting long-term investment potential beyond short-term trends [8] - In the renewable energy sector, leading companies are expected to see significant growth driven by new capacity and market share gains [9]

Core Insights - The A-share market saw a collective rise in major indices, with the Shanghai Composite Index up by 1.18%, the Shenzhen Component Index up by 1.51%, and the ChiNext Index up by 1.98% [2][8] - In September, profits of industrial enterprises above designated size in China increased by 21.6% year-on-year, accelerating by 1.2 percentage points compared to August, marking two consecutive months of growth exceeding 20% [3][9] - QFII has increased holdings in cyclical sectors, with a total of 236 A-share companies having QFII as a major shareholder, amounting to 1.021 billion shares valued at 21.283 billion yuan [3][9] Market Review - The total transaction volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 23,399.22 billion yuan [2][8] - The sectors leading the market included telecommunications, electronics, and comprehensive industries, while media, food and beverage, and real estate sectors lagged [2][8] - Concept sectors such as storage chips and AI PC concepts saw significant gains, while horse racing and e-sports concepts experienced declines [2][8] Industry Analysis - In the automotive sector, the revenue growth rate slightly exceeded the profit growth rate, with total revenue of 1,928.764 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 7.56%, while net profit reached 80.138 billion yuan, up 6.16% [20][21] - The overall gross margin of the automotive sector decreased to 15.56%, while net margin remained stable at 4.34% [21][22] - The inverter export market showed a decline in overall exports, with September exports amounting to 5.067 billion yuan, a month-on-month decrease of 19.37% but a year-on-year increase of 4.60% [24][25] - The electrical equipment export sector reported stable performance, with total exports in September reaching 8.647 billion yuan, a month-on-month increase of 9.17% and a year-on-year increase of 48.97% [30][31] Company Performance - Dongpeng Beverage reported a third-quarter revenue of 6.107 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 30.36%, and a net profit of 1.386 billion yuan, up 41.91% [35][36] - The company’s core product, Dongpeng Special Drink, generated revenue of 12.563 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 19.36% [38][39] - The gross margin for Dongpeng Beverage was 45.21%, slightly down by 0.60% year-on-year, while the net margin improved to 22.68% [39][40]