基金评价 /[Table_Date] 2026.02.02 | [Table_Authors] | 庄梓恺(分析师) | | --- | --- | | | 021-23219370 | | | zhuangzikai@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880525040038 | 国泰海通证券开放式基金周报(20260202) 建议均衡偏成长风格配置，重视科技成长风格基金，兼顾大 金融、顺周期等资产 本报告导读： A 股震荡，石油石化、通信和煤炭板块表现较优，部分重仓有色金属、通信等板块 的基金表现较优。建议均衡偏成长风格配置，重视科技成长风格基金，兼顾大金融、 顺周期等资产。 投资要点： [Table_Report] 相关报告 国泰海通证券：ETF 数据周报（2026.02.01） 2026.02.01 国泰海通证券：基金数据周报（2026.02.01） 2026.02.01 国泰海通证券：ETF 数据周报（2026.01.25） 2026.01.25 国泰海通证券开放式基金周报(20260125) 2026.01.25 国泰海通证券：基金数据周报（2026.01.25） 2026.01.25 ...

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry and Company Overview - The conference call discusses the current state of the market, focusing on various sectors including technology, resources, and financial services. The analysis highlights the performance of indices such as the CSI 500, CSI 1000, and the Shanghai Composite Index. Key Points and Arguments Market Conditions - The market is experiencing a weakening momentum, necessitating risk control and attention to the 20-day moving average and external factors affecting resource prices [1][3] - In January, the first three weeks saw strong performance from small-cap indices like CSI 500 and CSI 1000, but a cooling trend began in the third week, with large-cap indices like the Shanghai 50 and CSI 300 breaking below the 20-day moving average [2][4] Sector Performance - The non-ferrous metals sector is under pressure, with expectations of a prolonged adjustment phase, potentially lasting six months to a year. The previous year's surge of 97.5% in the non-ferrous index makes it unlikely to replicate such gains this year [5][6] - The technology growth sector is showing signs of weakness, with various industries including defense, electronics, and computing experiencing pullbacks [6][7] Investment Strategy - Investors are advised to maintain a balanced portfolio with a focus on sectors that are currently undervalued and have a high risk awareness. Caution is recommended for technology growth stocks due to potential short-term volatility [3][4] - Recommended sectors for investment include construction materials, electronics, and communication, which are considered to have a favorable risk-reward ratio [2][12] Market Trends and Predictions - The market is expected to enter a phase of strong oscillation leading up to the Spring Festival, with large-cap indices outperforming small-cap growth indices [8][11] - The brokerage sector is anticipated to enter a bullish cycle, with a potential for upward movement despite current low market sentiment [9][10] Risk Factors - The volatility in global resource prices, such as a 35% drop in silver prices, is impacting related assets and indices, particularly those with significant exposure to non-ferrous resources [4][5] - The potential for further declines in small-cap indices if they do not rebound quickly is a concern, indicating a need for careful monitoring of technical indicators [4][8] Future Outlook - The overall market is expected to remain in a state of fluctuation, with opportunities for growth anticipated towards the end of 2026. Investors are encouraged to adjust their portfolios accordingly and focus on sectors with solid fundamentals [11][18] Additional Important Content - The call emphasizes the importance of monitoring technical indicators such as the 20-day and 5-week moving averages to make timely adjustments to investment positions [4][11] - The discussion includes insights on the cyclical nature of certain sectors, particularly those related to commodities and technology, suggesting a strategic approach to investing in these areas [13][15]

板块轮动预计仍是春节前的主基调，关注轮动中的结构性机会。主线一，科技创新主题。短期来看，关 注细分板块之间的轮动补涨机会。前期强势的商业航天、AI应用等主题受到产业趋势催化，但后续内 部分化或有所加大。主线二，制造业、资源板块盈利修复路径清晰。有色金属行情波动加大，业绩预告 显示基本面支撑较强，关注短线回调后的配置机会。辅助线一，消费品以旧换新政策延续，服务消费再 迎重磅政策利好，扩大内需导向下消费板块存在布局窗口。辅助线二，出海趋势带动企业盈利空间打 开。 申万宏源：春节之前市场可能会进入短暂的震荡修正阶段，但仍建议持股过节 申万宏源表示，本轮春季行情仍然值得期待，后续市场无论是在政策方面，还是在基本面层面，未来几 个月或仍有利好消息。不过市场表现未必会一帆风顺，春节之前，市场可能会进入短暂的震荡修正阶 段。结构性牛市突破前期震荡区间后，通常会出现阶段性的调整。但仍建议投资者持股过节，在春节之 后，市场交易热度会再度回升，结合假期高频数据以及产业热点消息，之后市场可能会迎来新一轮的上 涨行情。 A股三大股指开盘涨跌不一，沪指跌0.93%，创业板指涨0.65%。盘面上，电网设备板块表现活跃，贵金 属、油气开采 ...

Market Overview - Bitcoin has dropped below $79,000, resulting in a market cap loss of $111 billion and 420,000 liquidations [1] - Silver experienced a significant decline, falling over 36% in a single day, marking the largest drop since 1980 [1] Federal Reserve Leadership Change - Trump's nomination of Waller as the new Fed Chair has caused market turmoil, as he is perceived as "hawkish" and less inclined to implement monetary easing [3] - This leadership change is likened to past events, such as Bernanke's appointment in 2008, which initially caused panic but eventually led to a market rally [3] Cryptocurrency and Precious Metals - Bitcoin's recent performance has disappointed many investors, as it has not consistently followed gold's price movements [3] - Investors are advised to limit their exposure to cryptocurrencies due to their high volatility and lack of clear valuation logic [3] A-Share Market Insights - CITIC Securities indicates that the wave of ETF redemptions is coming to an end, suggesting a shift from small-cap stocks to larger, quality companies [3] - The market is expected to transition back to blue-chip stocks, similar to trends observed in 2020 [3] Investment Strategies in Volatile Markets - The "Three No Principles" for long-term investors are emphasized: do not chase high prices, do not sell quality assets, and do not over-leverage positions [4] - The increase in value-added tax for the three major telecom operators from 6% to 9% may impact profits and dividends, but operators can mitigate this through pricing adjustments [4] AI Sector Developments - Tencent is accelerating its AI strategy, transitioning to a "smart ecosystem" approach, which is expected to enhance AI capabilities across various industries [4] - The AI sector is experiencing significant volatility, and investors are advised to focus on real demand rather than speculative narratives [5] Economic Outlook and Policy Implications - Local governments have set economic growth targets, with many adjusting consumption and investment goals downward, indicating a year focused on policy implementation [5] - Sectors such as renewable energy and high-end manufacturing are expected to benefit from strong policy support [5] Actionable Investment Recommendations - Investors are encouraged to focus on cyclical sectors (chemicals, non-ferrous metals) and technology (AI applications, domestic computing) while avoiding volatile assets like precious metals and cryptocurrencies [6] - Maintaining quality assets and employing a strategy of holding 30% of positions and gradually increasing exposure during market dips is recommended [6] Key Market Signals to Monitor - Important signals to watch include upcoming earnings reports from major US companies (Amazon, Google, Disney), US employment data, and the European Central Bank's interest rate decision, as these will influence market direction [7]

Group 1 - The market is experiencing volatility due to concerns over the nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve Chairman, which has led to fears of changes in monetary policy [2] - The yield curve issue in U.S. Treasury bonds reflects a broader economic dilemma, and regardless of who leads the Federal Reserve, the current situation is unlikely to change [2] - The A-share market is showing weakness, while global asset performance is mixed, influenced by the Federal Reserve's personnel changes [2] Group 2 - The telecom operators in China, including China Mobile, China Telecom, and China Unicom, will see their value-added tax rate increase from 6% to 9%, impacting their revenue and profits starting January 1, 2026 [3] - Multiple brokerages are optimistic about the A-share market's spring performance, suggesting a focus on technology, consumption, and cyclical sectors such as semiconductors and AI applications [3] - Tencent is accelerating its AI strategy, transitioning to a "smart agent ecosystem," which may lead to a reevaluation of its AI business and partnerships [4] Group 3 - Gold prices have experienced significant fluctuations, with a recent drop of over 12% after briefly surpassing $4500 per ounce, driven by concerns over U.S. liquidity tightening [5] - Local governments in China have set economic growth targets for 2026, with many regions adjusting their CPI and investment growth targets, indicating potential trading opportunities related to policy implementation [5] - The Hong Kong stock market is expected to have upward potential in the medium to long term, with a focus on technology and non-bank financial sectors, as economic stability may attract more investment [5]

行 业 及 产 业 食品饮料 2026 年 02 月 01 日 茅台量价表现验证观点 推荐茅台为 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 证 券 研 究 报 告 《白酒持仓继续下降 食品配置环比回升— —食品饮料 2025 年四季度基金持仓分 析》 2026/01/26 《茅台批价坚挺旺季氛围渐起 鸣鸣很忙上 市催化零食板块——食品饮料行业周报 20260119-20260123》 2026/01/25 《贵州茅台（600519）点评： i 茅台全面 向 C，市场化改革全面推进 》 2026/01/09 证券分析师 吕昌 A0230516010001 lvchang@swsresearch.com 周缘 A0230519090004 zhouyuan@swsresearch.com 王子昂 A0230525040003 wangza@swsresearch.com 联系人 王子昂 A0230525040003 wangza@swsresearch.com 本期投资提示： 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 博时基金 博时基金管理有限公司(researchreport@boser ...

登录新浪财经APP 搜索【信披】查看更多考评等级 炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 来源：招商证券策略研究 展望2月，市场在未来一段时间将会以震荡为主，节后指数有望强于节前。在业绩预告披露结束后，市 场阶段性会围绕商业航天、AI算力及应用等主题进行交易，同时由于涨价的扩散，市场也会继续在以 石油石化、建材、钢铁、化工、白酒等涨价领域进行阶段性交易。但是在缺少净增量的环境下，轮动可 能会加速，交易难度进一步提升。整体风格也有望相对均衡，风格轮动也可能会加快。 核心观点 ⚑大势研判和核心逻辑：展望2月，在前期监管释放降温信号和ETF大幅流出后，市场在未来一段时间 将会以震荡为主。今年2月有春节长假，春节长假之前，由于有长假期缺少明确的催化剂，预计市场活 跃度会进一步下降。春节之后，由于临近两会召开，政策催化将会加速出现，春节之后指数有望有更好 的表现。基本面层面，1-2月是数据真空期，从目前来看，产业端的边际变化带来的业绩改善趋势仍然 是市场关注的方向。顺周期涨价品种，半导体光模块为代表的AI链依然是景气趋势之所在。政策层 面，由于2026年是逢六逢一的五年规划第一年，也是 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint suggests that the recent performance of technology stocks, particularly in the ChiNext index, indicates a potential shift in market dynamics, moving away from precious metals and resource stocks [1][3] - The technology sector's recent surge is characterized as either a rotation or an offensive move, with the CPU sector showing strong performance after a prolonged adjustment period, indicating investor confidence [2][3] - The adjustment in precious metals, particularly gold and silver, is viewed as a first-time correction, with expectations that the cycle of rotation among various resource sectors is not yet over [3] Group 2 - The rise in technology stocks, especially in AI applications, would signify a market offensive, but the current gains are primarily attributed to the CPU sector, which has been consolidating at high levels [2] - The market's rotation is evident as funds shift from declining resource stocks to lower-valued sectors, indicating a broader strategy of capital reallocation [1][2] - The ongoing strength in the CPU sector suggests a complex investment landscape, where long-term expectations are clear, but short-term volatility remains a concern [2]

Market Overview - In January 2026, global markets exhibited significant divergence, with structural trends dominating the month [1] - A-shares and Hong Kong stocks experienced upward movements, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising over 3% and the Hang Seng Index increasing by more than 6% [1] - The U.S. stock market reached historical highs but faced consolidation by the end of the month, with all three major indices still showing monthly gains exceeding 1% [1] A-shares Performance - The A-share market showed a steady upward trend in January, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 3.76%, the ChiNext Index up 4.47%, and the Shenzhen Composite Index up 5.03% [2] - The non-ferrous metals sector led the gains with a 22.59% increase, followed by media, oil and petrochemicals, construction materials, and basic chemicals, which saw increases of 17.94%, 16.31%, 13.31%, and 12.72% respectively [3] Hong Kong Market Performance - The Hong Kong market also trended upwards in January, with the Hang Seng Index leading with a 6.85% increase, while the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index and the Hang Seng Tech Index rose by 4.53% and 3.67% respectively [5] - The optical communication sector was the standout performer, surging by 32.34%, followed closely by the paper industry with a 31.76% increase [6] Precious Metals - January witnessed a remarkable rally in precious metals, with gold and silver prices rising sharply due to expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and ongoing central bank purchases [8] - Gold prices increased by over 16%, while silver prices surged more than 34% during the month, marking them as the most notable assets in this rally [8] Industrial Metals and Energy - The industrial metals market also performed strongly, with LME nickel rising over 9% and LME copper increasing by 8.97% [10] - The energy market saw WTI crude oil futures rising over 14%, reaching $65.88 per barrel, and Brent crude oil futures also increasing by over 14%, priced at $70.04 per barrel [10] Future Market Outlook - The focus for February is expected to remain on interest rate expectations, dollar movements, and geopolitical risks [12] - Analysts suggest that the A-share market may experience a healthy adjustment, with a shift towards a more sustainable "slow bull" market, driven by earnings growth and profitability improvements [12] - For the Hong Kong market, a positive outlook is maintained, with expectations of a structural rebound supported by earnings recovery, improved liquidity, and policy support [13]

该行认为保险股是当前顺周期板块的首选 该行看好顺周期品种回暖对保险板块的估值催化，保险板块的优势主要包括两方面：1)个险与银保渠道 双轮驱动，带动2026年开门红表现持续超预期，彰显了持续低利率环境下分红险"保底+浮动"作为长期 储蓄替代的优势。一方面2025年个险开门红新单基数较低，另一方面头部险企愈发重视银保渠道，2026 年合作网点扩容叠加"以趸促期"成效显现，全年银保渠道是新单和价值增长的胜负手。长期来看，受益 于存款搬家的居民资产再配置，负债端增速有望延续，权益市场慢牛有望强化分红险自身销售逻 辑;2)2026年年初至今A股主要宽基指数震荡上行，利差不够股票来凑，看好权益慢牛格局下保险股的估 值与业绩共振机会。该行根据1H25资产配置结构测算，假设股票持仓上涨20%，对应净利润涨幅逾 40%，保险股当前具备低估值与高弹性的双重吸引力。 关注长端利率突破2.0%整数关口的信号意义 当前市场对十年期国债到期收益率利率后期走势预期偏震荡，能否持续突破2.0%整数关口存在分歧。 该行构建了10年期国债到期收益率与投资收益率假设差、信用利差和期限利差观察A股上市险企P/EV平 均估值的合理性。复盘来看，若长端 ...