Group 1: Tariff Policy - The U.S. Department of Commerce announced a 50% tariff on certain steel products, effective June 23, 2025, expanding the scope to include everyday consumer goods like dishwashers and refrigerators [3][5] - This tariff increase follows a previous adjustment in March, where steel and aluminum tariffs were raised to 25% and then to 50% in June [5][16] - The policy aims to protect domestic industries, but it has sparked controversy as it may lead to increased appliance prices by 5%-10% due to higher import costs [7][5] Group 2: Impact on Global Oil Supply - Iran's parliament suggested closing the Strait of Hormuz, a critical passage for global oil, through which one-third of the world's oil supply is transported daily [9][11] - If closed, global oil supply could drop by 20%, potentially causing oil prices to surge from $75 per barrel to between $100 and $120 [11][30] - The rising oil prices could exacerbate inflation in the U.S., with the Federal Reserve raising inflation expectations to 3.5% for 2025, and the risk of inflation exceeding 4% if oil prices remain uncontrolled [20][22][44] Group 3: Economic Repercussions - The dual challenges of tariffs and rising oil prices place significant pressure on the U.S. economy, with potential impacts on consumer prices and manufacturing costs [20][22] - The situation could lead to a "stagflation" crisis, affecting not only the U.S. but also economies reliant on exports to the U.S., such as the EU and Asian countries [24][30] - Experts suggest that Trump's aggressive tariff strategy may be part of a larger plan to eventually lower tariffs while still generating significant revenue, potentially around $400 billion annually [26][41] Group 4: Domestic Steel Industry - The U.S. steel industry is currently underutilized, with a capacity utilization rate of only 78% as of Q1 2025, indicating that high tariffs have not significantly boosted domestic production [34] - The ongoing trade tensions and tariff policies may not effectively revitalize the U.S. steel sector as intended, raising questions about the long-term viability of such measures [34][47]

短期内，关税进一步推高了通胀，压缩了居民的实际收入；从中长期来看，如果找不到新的增长动力， 美国经济可能会陷入滞胀的风险——即低增长伴随高通胀。政策制定者需要在抑制通胀的同时避免过度 紧缩，并且白宫的贸易政策也将直接影响未来的经济前景。 标普全球市场情报首席商业经济学家Chris Williamson指出："6月份的PMI初值显示美国经济在第二季度 末依然保持增长，但前景充满了不确定性。"随着过去两个月通胀压力显著增加，企业不得不通过提价 来应对关税带来的成本上涨，而这将逐渐传导至消费者层面。 总之，美国经济目前正处于"增长放缓加通胀升温"的复杂局面中，PMI数据既体现了经济的韧性，也暴 露了潜在风险。美联储选择观望，等待更清晰的信号以指导下一步行动，而贸易战和政策的不确定性仍 是决定未来走向的关键因素。 （文章来源：新华财经） 新华财经北京6月24日电标普全球最新发布的6月采购经理人指数（PMI）显示，尽管制造业和服务业仍 处于扩张区间，但增速有所减缓，反映出美国经济在面对内外挑战时的脆弱性。 制造业PMI为52，略高于市场预期的51，但与上月持平，表明制造业的增长势头勉强维持。服务业PMI 为53.1，虽 ...

Market Overview - The market experienced an overall increase in trading volume but showed a downward trend, with an average daily trading volume of approximately 1.215 trillion yuan [1] - Value stocks outperformed growth stocks, with large-cap stocks outperforming small-cap stocks [1] - The banking, telecommunications, and electronics sectors performed well, while beauty care, textiles, and pharmaceuticals lagged behind [1] Macro Outlook - Domestic demand shows signs of recovery, but several consumption data points, particularly in real estate and automotive sectors, are weakening [2] - New housing sales in major cities are significantly lower than the same period last year, with only Beijing showing stronger performance [2] - Rising oil prices due to geopolitical tensions, particularly the Israel-Palestine conflict, pose a risk of stagflation [2] - Key areas of focus for the second half of the year include durable goods consumption, export growth, and potential policy responses [2] International Developments - The escalation of the Israel-Palestine conflict has led to a significant increase in oil prices, with WTI crude rising from a low of $55 to around $75 [3] - The Federal Reserve maintained its interest rate target range at 4.25%-4.50% during its June meeting, indicating a cautious approach amid inflation uncertainties [3] - The risk of stagflation is increasing globally, which could negatively impact risk assets [3] Market Expectations - The market shows resilience compared to the previous two years, despite existing pressures on the fundamentals [4] - The upcoming policy window in July may lead to market reactions based on new policy stimuli [4] - There is an expectation of a potential market rebound driven by policy support, although short-term adjustments may still be necessary [4] Market Style - The narrowing of thematic trading suggests that large-cap stocks may offer better elasticity and value compared to small-cap stocks [5] - The market is expected to engage in policy trading in the first three weeks of July, with historical trends indicating that large-cap stocks may outperform [5] - Suggested sectors for attention include precious metals, military industry, and high-dividend stocks, which may benefit from policy support [5]

Market Insights - The Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA) has noted the emergence of carry trade in the market, with the Hong Kong-US interest rate spread widening to 3% to 4%, pushing the Hong Kong dollar close to the weak end of its peg at 7.85 [1] - HKMA's Chief Executive emphasized the importance of stablecoins in payment applications over asset appreciation, indicating that expectations for high investment returns from stablecoins are unrealistic [1] - The Federal Reserve's Vice Chair Bowman suggested support for a potential interest rate cut as early as July if inflation continues to decline or if the labor market weakens [1] Economic Indicators - The U.S. June S&P Global Manufacturing PMI preliminary reading held steady at 52, the highest since February, exceeding market expectations [2] - The Eurozone's June composite PMI preliminary reading remained at 50.2, slightly below the expected 50.5, with the services PMI returning to the 50 mark while manufacturing PMI stayed at 49.4, marking 36 months without growth [2] - Germany's June composite PMI preliminary reading increased from 48.5 to 50.4, while France's composite PMI decreased from 49.3 to 48.5 [3] Global Market Dynamics - The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 0.89% to 42,581.78 points, the S&P 500 increased by 0.96% to 6,025.17 points, and the Nasdaq Composite climbed by 0.94% to 19,630.97 points [4] - U.S. crude oil futures fell by 8.95% to $67.23 per barrel, while Brent crude oil futures dropped by 8.37% to $69.16 per barrel [5] - The COMEX gold futures decreased by 0.04% to $3,384.40 per ounce, while silver futures rose by 0.09% to $36.05 per ounce [6] Regulatory Developments - The Thai Stock Exchange temporarily halved the daily price fluctuation limit for listed companies, effective until June 27 [7] - Central banks in India and Malaysia have reduced their derivative positions aimed at weakening their currencies, while South Korea's National Pension Fund has ended its five-month support for the Korean won [7]

美联储古尔斯比：关税与具有滞胀影响的油价冲击没有什么不同。 ...

品浩(Pimco)全球经济顾问Richard Clarida表示，未来数月美国出现滞胀的风险较小，称其出现20世纪70 年代石油危机的可能性很低。他表示，通胀数据"好于预期"，而就业数据则"令人惊喜"，迄今为止，市 场对伊朗遭袭的反应温和，并强调是非常温和。虽然对全球标售需求存在担忧，且对美国财政状况的担 忧加剧，但过去一个月左右美债标售表现"实际上非常好"。 ...

Economic Overview - The internal momentum of the US economy is weakening, with the Atlanta Fed's GDPNOW model predicting a 0.4 percentage point decline in Q2 real GDP growth to 3.4% [2] - Personal consumption expenditure (PCE) growth has decreased by 0.6 percentage points to 1.9%, primarily due to a slowdown in the services sector [2] - Private investment growth (excluding inventory) has dropped by 0.8 percentage points to 0.4%, with significant contractions in real estate (-4.4%) and construction (-3.4%) [2] - The job market remains stable, with weekly initial jobless claims falling by 0.3 thousand to 245 thousand, aligning with seasonal levels [2] - The worsening situation in the Middle East is increasing inflationary pressures, as indicated by the Truflation daily inflation index rising by 8 basis points to 2.14% [2] Fiscal and Monetary Policy - Fiscal policy remains expansionary, with a weekly fiscal surplus of $18.5 billion, which is weaker than seasonal levels but stronger than historical averages [3] - The Federal Reserve maintained a wait-and-see stance during the June meeting, with the dot plot indicating that 7 out of 18 members do not expect rate cuts this year [3] Market Performance - Overseas markets showed muted performance last week, with the US dollar slightly rebounding and US Treasury yields fluctuating [4] - The US stock market was nearly flat, up 0.1%, with expectations that the most significant tariff impacts have passed, potentially leading to a renewed upward trend driven by corporate earnings resilience [4] - However, high valuations and increased tariffs may limit upward potential [4] - The strategy suggests maintaining a neutral position on US stocks with a balanced allocation [4] Chinese Economic Conditions - Domestic demand shows mixed signals, with strong automotive consumption but a slowdown in real estate transactions [6] - In June, average daily retail sales of passenger cars reached 48,000 units, a 17% year-on-year increase [7] - Real estate sales are declining, with new home transaction volumes in 30 major cities dropping by 8.6% year-on-year [7] - The land market is also cooling, with land supply and transaction volumes decreasing [7] External Demand and Trade - High-frequency data indicates a potential slowdown in China's export growth in June, with port cargo and container throughput growth rates declining [8] - Exports to the US may have seen some recovery, while exports to non-US regions are expected to decline from previous highs [8] Fiscal Performance - In May, fiscal revenue growth slowed, with public budget revenue increasing by only 0.1% year-on-year [9] - Tax revenue growth decreased to 0.6%, while non-tax revenue turned negative for the first time in 2024 [9] - Government spending growth was also slower, with a 2.6% increase year-on-year [9] Market Strategy - The bond market is showing strength, with short-term rates performing well due to a stable funding environment [10] - The A-share market experienced a slight decline, with uncertainties in corporate earnings and the need for further policy support for real estate and consumption [12] - The Hong Kong stock market is facing risks of correction, with high valuations and unstable fundamentals [12]

【宏观因素影响下铜市场现状及投资策略分析】政策刺激下，中国5月消费成亮点，但出口增速放缓， 制造业投资增速回落，房地产市场降温，内生动能待提振。美联储6月议息会议维持利率不变，点阵图 预计年内降息50bp，内部表态偏鹰派。官员下调今明两年GDP增长预期等，美国"滞胀"风险犹存。美联 储理事沃勒预计关税不显著推高通胀，最早7月可降息。中东局势不明，原油价高，增加成本与通胀预 期。 原料端，铜矿现货加工费微提至-43.7美元/吨，维持低位，铜矿偏紧。国内铜矿港口库存从81.2万 吨降至71.2万吨。 冶炼端，用现货铜矿的冶炼厂亏损近2920元/吨，用长协铜矿的盈利从40元提至60元/ 吨。中国冶炼厂与Antofagasta第二轮谈判本周开启，Antofagasta坚持-15美元报价，中方未明确接受，下 周将进行第三轮谈判。 需求端，5月消费淡季叠加铜价高，国内铜材开工率小降。持仓方面，市场参与 度下滑，沪铜持仓降但仍处高位，近月持仓虚实比低，短期挤仓风险降。 库存方面，国内铜社会库存 小降，美铜库存升，伦铜库存降，全球铜显性库存小降。因伦铜库存持续降，现货升水拉升，挤仓风险 发酵。 投资观点认为，近期宏观情绪反复 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【有色及新能源周报】 美联储会议基调偏鹰，有色板块高位震荡 国贸期货 有色金属研究中心 2025-6-23 分析师：方富强 从业资格证号：F3043701 投资咨询证号：Z0015300 分析师：谢灵 从业资格证号：F3040017 投资咨询证号：Z0015788 助理分析师：陈宇森 从业资格证号：F03123927 助理分析师：林静妍 从业资格证号：F03131200 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 目录 01 PART ONE 有色金属价格监测 有色金属价格监测 有色金属收盘价格监控 | 有色金属价格监测 | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | | 有色金属收盘价格监控 | | | | | | | 品 种 | 单 位 | 现 值 | 日涨跌幅 | 周涨跌幅 | 年涨跌幅 | 品 种 | 单 位 | 现 值 | 日 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [2] Core Views - Precious metals are expected to perform well in the long term despite a recent pullback, with a recommendation to overweight this sector [5] - Copper prices are expected to remain strong, with a support level around 9,350 USD per ton, influenced by macroeconomic factors and trade dynamics [6] - Aluminum prices are anticipated to trend upward, supported by easing trade tensions and a decrease in inventory levels [6] - Rare earth prices are projected to rise following a significant drop in export volumes, with expectations of increased demand due to recent diplomatic agreements [7] - Uranium prices have seen a significant increase, with expectations for a new upward trend in the second half of the year [8] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The closing index for the industry is at 4,846.95, with a weekly high of 5,047.03 and a low of 3,700.9 [2] Price Movements - Basic metals saw price changes: Copper up 0.13%, Aluminum up 2.34%, Zinc up 0.86%, Lead up 0.13%, and Tin down 0.27% [20] - Precious metals experienced declines: Gold down 1.98%, Silver down 1.15%, while Platinum and Palladium saw increases of 4.08% and 1.69% respectively [20] Inventory Changes - Global visible inventories showed a decrease in Copper by 12,511 tons, Aluminum by 5,439 tons, and Zinc by 5,004 tons, while Lead saw an increase of 18,731 tons [34]