Economic Growth Insights - May economic data shows resilience despite external pressures, with industrial added value growth at 5.8%, only down 0.3 percentage points from April's 6.1%[3] - Fixed asset investment growth remains stable at 3.7%, with real estate investment dragging down at -10.7%[3] - Manufacturing investment grew by 8.5%, with the fastest growth in transportation equipment manufacturing at 26.1%[3] Consumer Behavior and Market Trends - Retail sales growth in May reached 6.4%, the first time exceeding 6% in 2024, driven by promotional activities[3] - Significant growth in household appliances (53%) and communication equipment (33%) indicates strong policy support for consumption[3] - Anticipated adjustments in June may lead to a decline in consumption growth due to demand pull-forward from May[3] Employment and Future Outlook - Urban unemployment rate in May was stable at 5.0%, showing no significant impact from external shocks[3] - The second quarter GDP is expected to remain stable, with minimal fluctuations anticipated due to external changes[3] - Future growth will be supported by manufacturing, infrastructure investment, and consumer spending, despite potential declines in exports[3] Risk Considerations - Risks include heightened geopolitical conflicts and unexpected increases in oil prices impacting domestic costs[3]

欧洲央行副行长金多斯：从中期来看，关税措施将同时抑制经济增长和通胀。 ...

日前，欧洲央行宣布将三大关键利率分别下调25个基点，旨在回应通胀回落与经济增长疲弱的现实，同 时应对全球贸易紧张局势带来的不确定性。不过，欧洲央行并未对整体前景过度悲观。欧洲央行已进入 政策微调阶段，降息动作仍然可能延续，但频率和幅度都将受到更多宏观环境与地缘政治因素影响。 日前，在最新一次货币政策会议上，欧洲央行决定将三大关键利率分别下调25个基点，这是该行自2024 年6月宣布降息以来第八次下调利率，虽符合市场预期，但这一次央行释放出的信号比"继续宽松"更耐 人寻味：当前的货币政策周期可能已经接近尾声。 大西洋两岸分化的货币政策及其对金融市场影响也成为分析人士观察的重点。随着欧洲央行将借贷成本 下调至2.00%，美欧两地利差已达到225个基点以上，为2019年9月以来的最高水平。通常而言，美国利 率上升会使美国资产更具吸引力，从而提振美元，但近期美元汇率走势却未如以往那般强劲。自今年1 月中旬以来，欧元兑美元已累计上涨超过13%。分析认为，美国预算赤字大幅扩张前景叠加美国贸易政 策带来的不确定性，已促使全球投资者慎重考虑对美投资，越来越多的资金开始转向相对稳定的欧元区 市场。 尽管多数通胀指标显示回归目标 ...

Core Insights - Bank of America Merrill Lynch warns that Trump's "Big Beautiful Plan" will not achieve fiscal balance through growth effects and will provide limited economic growth stimulus [1][2] Group 1: Economic Impact - The plan is estimated to cost $2.3 trillion but will only generate $102.8 billion in revenue feedback, resulting in a self-financing ratio of only 4.5% [2][3] - To achieve self-financing, GDP needs to grow by approximately 9% by the fiscal year 2034, which is deemed nearly impossible [2][3] Group 2: Growth Projections - The Joint Committee on Taxation (JCT) projects that the plan will only increase GDP by an average of 3 basis points over the next 10 years, with a maximum increase of 0.4% by the fiscal year 2034 [3][4] - Economic effects from 2025 to 2034 are projected as follows: Output increase of 0.4%, Business capital decrease of 0.1%, Labor increase of 0.6%, and Consumption increase of 0.8% [3][4] Group 3: Comparison with Other Estimates - The Tax Foundation estimates that the plan will lead to a long-term GDP growth of 0.8%, covering about one-third of its costs [4] - The Wharton School predicts a GDP growth of 0.4% in the first decade, raising the annual growth rate from 1.8% to 1.85% [4] - The Yale Budget Lab suggests that the plan may raise growth rates from 1.8% to about 2% by 2027, but federal debt will eventually reverse this effect [4]

Group 1 - Consumption is the ultimate goal of economic activity and an important engine for economic growth, with a focus on enhancing consumer confidence and income stability [1][2] - The Chinese government emphasizes the need to combine consumption promotion with improving people's livelihoods to boost consumer capacity and willingness [2][3] - Recent policies aim to strengthen macroeconomic policies with a focus on people's livelihoods and consumption, creating a virtuous cycle between economic development and improvement of living standards [3][4] Group 2 - The current global situation presents complex challenges, making it essential to enhance consumption to meet high-quality living needs and stimulate economic circulation [4] - Employment is highlighted as a fundamental aspect of people's livelihoods, with strategies to stabilize and expand job opportunities, particularly for key demographics [4][5] - Improving the wage distribution system is crucial for increasing residents' income and enhancing consumer confidence, alongside strengthening the social security network [5][6]

订阅特朗普动态 +订阅 特朗普："大而美"法案将削减1.6万亿美元的开支 金十数据6月12日讯，美国总统特朗普在社交媒体最新发文："这项伟大、宏大、美好的法案将以前所未 有的速度推动经济增长。与此同时，它还将削减1.6万亿美元的开支。这让我们的国家走上了正确的轨 道，此外！让美国再次伟大！" ...

ONS经济统计主管Liz McKeown指出，服务业和制造业产出的减少是导致4月份整体GDP下滑的主要原 因。她还提到，在过去的三个月里，尽管4月份的数据不佳，但总体GDP仍有所增长，这可能是因为一 些商业活动被提前到了年初完成。 此外，4月份法律和房地产行业的表现尤其疲软。这可能是由于在3月份印花税调整后，购房需求集中释 放，导致4月份的需求相对减弱。这种情况表明，短期经济波动有时会受到政策变动的影响，而这些影 响可能会导致某些行业出现周期性的起伏。 （文章来源：新华财经） 财政大臣Rachel Reeves 对这一数据表示失望，但同时强调其即将进行的支出审查计划将有助于推动经 济增长。 英国政府表示，将加大相关领域的政府投资，并以此带动私人投资，从而实现经济增长。未来五年内， 英国将投入156亿英镑，用于改善城市交通基础设施。将在今后几年内投资860亿英镑，用于加速推动英 国增长最快的行业，包括科技、生命科学、先进制造业和国防等。将投入1.87亿英镑，用于学生AI方面 的培训，其中的0.24亿英镑，将作为该项目的旗舰项目的投资，目的是让英国每所中学的学生有机会在 三年内获得新的人工智能技能。到2027年， ...

欧洲央行执委施纳贝尔：私人消费正在支撑经济增长。 ...

德国智库IFO：预计新政府措施今年将推动经济增长提高0.1个百分点，明年则将提升0.7个百分点。 ...

金十数据整理：每日全球外汇市场要闻速递（6月12日） 美元： 7. 特朗普：美联储应降息整整一个百分点。 非美主要货币： 2. 韩国央行行长李昌镛：过度降息和刺激措施可能导致房地产市场价格上涨，并增加外汇市场的波动 性。 1. 美国副总统万斯：美联储拒绝降息是货币政策失当行为。 2. 美国5月CPI数据全线低于预期，核心CPI仅增长0.1%。 3. 亿万富翁对冲基金经理Paul Tudor Jones：特朗普将会选择一位"非常鸽派"的美联储主席。 4. 美国财政部长贝森特将物价上涨放缓归功于特朗普的政策。 5. 美国财长贝森特：如果债务上限问题得不到解决，可能遭遇自2008-09年以来最大的危机。 6. 美国财长贝森特：愿意继续留任财政部长一职至2029年。 4. 法国央行：将2025年的经济增长预期从三月份的0.7%下调至0.6%。 5. 英国4月经济萎缩0.3%。 6. 欧洲央行管委卡扎克斯：达到2%的通胀率"很有可能"需要"进一步的降息微调"。 1. 日本首相石破茂：工资增长是应对通胀最有效的方式。与美国的关税谈判正在取得稳步进展。 2. 日本央行行长植田和男：国内金融状况仍然宽松。 3. 欧洲央行管委 ...