Core Viewpoint - The Chief Economist of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, Conway, indicates that underlying inflation is continuing to ease, and lower interest rates will support economic growth in the second half of the year [1] Group 1 - The ongoing relief in underlying inflation suggests a positive trend for the economy [1] - Lower interest rates are expected to stimulate economic growth during the latter half of the year [1]

北交所新股资金解冻了， 没占到便宜的，会不会就是万几的收益？ 以后肯定是万几了，但比逆回购高还是有人干。 回来的钱干嘛去呢？ 想买个理财，看了看， 灵活取用的2%年化的就算高的了 那放回购吧，年化1.6% 一年期定期存款0.95% 这些收益 率前几年听起来感觉都不可思议。 我刚工作有点钱存1年定期1.98%我觉得已经是历史低点 了。 经济这么好，为什么没有人贷款投资，开公司，办工厂？ 你们不想创造一个伟大的企 业，开创一个伟大的产品，实现自己的梦想吗？ 我不想过这样的生活！ lance77 巧了，最近正在研究辜朝明的《大衰退》，可以从另一个方面理解当下。 辜朝明理论试图解释的要点在于，日本衰退之所以持续那么久，本质在在于企业一直在修复 资产负债表，即1980年代泡沫经济刺破之后，此前举债买入大量资产的企业面临的困境在于 他们手中资产大幅折价，这些企业发现它们陷入一个困境，即借贷太多，甚至出现资不抵债 情况。如果是西方国家企业遭遇这样的境地，往往会破产或者重组，但是日本企业或者说大 衰退中的日本企业往往并非如此，他们的经营活动能够继续产生利润，其困境并非由于经营 失败，因此，他们如果继续存在就可以继续赚钱。 在 ...

Economic Growth Forecasts - Major international financial institutions, including Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan, have raised their 2025 economic growth forecasts for China by 0.6 to 0.7 percentage points, citing positive effects from a series of incremental policies implemented since September 2024 [1][2] Monetary and Fiscal Policies - The easing of monetary policy by the People's Bank of China from September to December 2024 is highlighted as a key driver for economic support, with a projected fiscal deficit rate exceeding 4% for the first time during the upcoming Two Sessions [2] Foreign Investment and Market Dynamics - China's continuous policy openness and improvements in the business environment have led to a 12.1% year-on-year increase in newly established foreign-invested enterprises, totaling 18,832 in the first four months [3] - The Hong Kong IPO market has raised a total of $9 billion since 2025, reflecting a 320% year-on-year increase, indicating strong interest from international investors [4] Resilience and Confidence in the Economy - Many foreign financial institutions emphasize the "resilience" of the Chinese economy, noting that despite external challenges, domestic growth remains robust [5] - The strong technological innovation capabilities of Chinese enterprises are viewed as a critical factor for continued foreign investment confidence [8] Focus on Technology and Consumption - The technology and consumption sectors are identified as major growth areas, attracting global capital and showcasing significant potential [9] - Changes in consumer behavior, including the rise of domestic brands and innovative consumption patterns, are emerging as new highlights in the consumption sector [14][17]

Group 1: Employment Data Overview - In May, the U.S. added 139,000 non-farm jobs, exceeding the expected 125,000, and aligning closely with the average monthly addition of 149,000 over the past year, while the unemployment rate remained stable at 4.2% [1] - The private sector contributed significantly to job growth, adding 140,000 jobs, with the service industry being the largest contributor, indicating a solid foundation for economic growth [2][3] - Average hourly earnings increased by 0.4% month-over-month and 3.9% year-over-year, surpassing market expectations, reflecting strong wage pressure in the labor market [2] Group 2: Impact of Tariffs on Employment - The manufacturing sector, particularly those sensitive to tariffs, saw a reduction of 8,000 jobs, marking the largest decline this year, signaling potential economic concerns [4] - The actual unemployment rate slightly increased, with approximately 71,000 more people unemployed in May, indicating a rise from 4.187% in April to 4.244% [4] - A notable decrease in labor supply was observed, with about 625,000 individuals leaving the labor market, contributing to a decline in the labor force participation rate [5] Group 3: Economic Outlook - The overall economic impact of tariffs is becoming evident, with a slow and mild growth deceleration trend expected to continue unless significant unexpected events occur [5] - The labor market remains relatively stable despite the challenges posed by tariffs, with the Federal Reserve focusing on the unemployment rate as a key indicator for economic health [3]

当地时间6日，意大利国家统计局发布2025至2026年经济前景展望，预计2025年该国经济增长0.6%， 2026年增长0.8%。报告称，美国关税政策将对全球贸易和经济增长前景产生负面影响。意大利国家统 计局预测，到2025年下半年，美国关税不确定性将有所缓解，但当前依然对企业信心构成影响。2025年 全球经济预计将出现放缓，随后在下一年趋于基本稳定，主要原因是美国贸易政策持续变化带来的不确 定性，以及严重的地缘政治紧张局势。(央视新闻) ...

策略师：美债遭抛售反映经济增长预期转向乐观 金十数据6月6日讯，纽约FHN金融宏观策略师Will Compernolle表示，（美债）抛售实质上反映了市场 对经济增长预期转向乐观的判断。我们再次见证了经济硬数据的韧性，尽管尚未最终落定，但关税缓和 已取得积极进展。此前市场担忧的"末日情景"——那些被认为随时可能爆发的危机——其发生概率正在 显著降低。没有出现人们预期的严重恶化的迹象，这让人松了一口气，对债券市场而言则是利空。 ...

6月6日，俄罗斯央行宣布大幅降息100个基点，基准利率从21%下调到20%。这是自2022年9月19日以来的首次降息。 根据俄罗斯央行发布的货币政策公告，降息主要的原因是通胀压力(包括潜在的通胀压力)继续下降。虽然内需增长仍超过商品和服务供应的能力，但俄罗 斯经济正逐渐回归平衡增长轨道。 俄罗斯央行强调，当前仍然需要保持紧缩的货币条件，以便在2026年将通胀率恢复到目标水平，这意味着货币政策将在很长一段时间内保持紧缩。未来货 币政策的调整，将依据通胀下降的速度和通胀预期。根据俄罗斯央行的预测，鉴于当前的货币政策立场，年通胀率将在2026年恢复到4.0%，并进一步保 持在目标水平。 数据显示，2025年4月的通胀率为6.2%，相比一季度平均8.2%大幅下降，而核心通胀率更是下降到4.4%。 此外，自4月以来，通胀预期发生了不同的变化。企业的价格预期持续下降。金融市场参与者的预期则未发生重大变化。家庭的通胀预期略有上调。总体 而言，通胀预期仍然很高。这可能会阻碍可持续的通胀放缓。 在经济增长方面，高频数据表明，国内需求增长逐渐放缓。 自4月会议以来，劳动力市场的情况没有太大变化，失业率处于历史最低水平。根据调查， ...

巴西总统卢拉：第一季度的经济增长显示我们有能力实现高于全球平均水平的增长。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Central Bank of Russia warns that escalating trade tensions could lead to a decline in global economic growth and oil prices, which may create inflationary pressures through fluctuations in the ruble exchange rate [1] Group 1 - The potential for further declines in global economic growth rates and oil prices is highlighted as a significant concern [1] - The Central Bank indicates that these declines could impact the ruble's exchange rate, leading to inflationary pressures [1]

印度央行超预期降息。 6月6日，印度央行宣布将基准利率大幅下调50个基点，将其从6%降至5.5%，降息幅度大超市场预期。同时，这是该行自2月份以来连续第三次降息，目前 利率水平已经降至2022年8月以来的最低水平。 印度央行超预期的降息让印度市场措手不及，印度卢比在此举后略有走弱。印度股市则大幅拉升，主要指数均翻红，印度SENSEX30指数涨幅超过1%。 | 代码 | 名称 | 现价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SENSEX | 印度SENSEX30 | 82288.88d | 846.84 | 1.04% | | SPBSSSIP | 标普BSE SENSEX 50 | 26134.28d | 263.26 | 1.02% | | SPBSAIP | 标普BSE全指 | 10522.4400c | 56.7000 | 0.54% | | SPBSLIP | 标普BSE大盘指 | 9649.93d | 102.61 | 1.07% | | SPB1LTIP | 标普BSE大盘TMC100 | 9251.60d | 97.56 | 1.07% | ...