Core Viewpoint - The silver futures market is experiencing a significant surge, with the main contract reaching a peak of 23,568.00 yuan, reflecting a 4.09% increase [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The main silver futures contract reported a rise of over 4%, indicating strong market performance [2] - As of the latest report, the main silver futures contract is priced at 23,167.00 yuan [1] Group 2: Institutional Insights - Copper Crown Jin Yuan Futures predicts that precious metals will maintain a strong performance in the short term due to increased demand for safe-haven assets amid geopolitical tensions [2] - Hualian Futures expects the medium to long-term trend of silver to remain strong, driven by rising market demand and supply constraints [3] - Zhonghui Futures maintains a long-term bullish outlook on silver, emphasizing the ongoing supply-demand gap and favorable macroeconomic conditions [3] Group 3: Market Drivers - The geopolitical situation regarding Greenland has heightened market risk, prompting investors to seek refuge in precious metals like silver [2] - The silver market is facing a significant supply shortage for the fifth consecutive year, while demand is bolstered by sectors such as photovoltaics, electric vehicles, and AI data centers [3] - Continuous inflows into global silver ETFs and declining COMEX inventories have resulted in historically low deliverable silver stocks [3]

Core Viewpoint - The domestic refined oil prices in China will see their first increase of the year on January 20, 2026, with gasoline and diesel prices expected to rise by 90 yuan per ton, translating to an increase of 0.07 to 0.08 yuan per liter [1] Group 1: Price Adjustment Details - The price adjustment ends a trend of three consecutive decreases and one suspension at the end of 2025 [1] - In Beijing, the price of 92-octane gasoline will increase from 6.70 yuan per liter, resulting in an additional cost of 3.5 to 4 yuan for filling a 50-liter tank [1] Group 2: Market Influences - The increase is attributed to complex fluctuations in the international crude oil market, influenced by ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and expectations of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve [1] - The Brent crude oil futures price has surpassed 85 dollars per barrel, with the domestic reference crude oil change rate reaching 1.39%, triggering this price adjustment [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the steel industry and a "Positive" rating for the non-ferrous metals industry, with "Buy" ratings for specific companies including Luoyang Molybdenum, Zhongjin Gold, Huayou Cobalt, Zijin Mining, and China Aluminum [7][8]. Core Insights - The geopolitical situation continues to create volatility, but gold prices are expected to remain supported due to ongoing tensions [3][52]. - The steel industry is anticipated to see improved profitability due to the implementation of growth policies and an optimistic demand outlook in sectors like shipbuilding and construction [4][5]. - The copper market is expected to tighten due to supply constraints from major mines, while demand is projected to increase in sectors such as electric power grids and new energy vehicles [4][41]. - The aluminum sector faces challenges with oversupply in alumina and potential short-term price corrections, but the demand from the new energy vehicle sector remains a key focus [4][48]. - The rare earth industry is expected to see a revaluation of related companies due to China's export controls and the strategic importance of rare earth resources [7][4]. Summary by Sections Steel Industry - Current steel mill inventory pressure is not significant, and short-term demand decline is limited, with expectations of price support before the Spring Festival [5][19]. - As of January 16, 2026, the total steel inventory was 12.4955 million tons, a decrease of 0.39% from the previous week, but an increase of 7.72% year-on-year [26][27]. - The comprehensive price index for steel on January 16, 2026, was 3,457.46 CNY/ton, reflecting a 0.15% increase from the previous week [39][40]. Copper Industry - The copper market is facing a lack of driving force for price increases, but expectations for 2026 remain positive due to anticipated demand growth [3][41]. - As of January 16, 2026, LME copper prices were 13,000 USD/ton, with SHFE copper prices at 101,900 CNY/ton, showing a slight decrease in LME prices but an increase in SHFE prices [46]. Aluminum Industry - The aluminum processing sector is currently in a contraction phase, with a PMI of 42.4% as of December 2025 [48]. - The average price of alumina on January 16, 2026, was 2,666 CNY/ton, down 1.00% from the previous week [49]. Precious Metals - The geopolitical landscape and mixed economic data from the U.S. are influencing gold prices, which are expected to remain supported [52]. - As of January 16, 2026, COMEX gold prices were 4,601.10 USD/oz, reflecting a 1.83% increase from the previous week [53].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report Tin - Short - term tin prices fluctuate significantly due to market sentiment. After the sentiment stabilizes, considering the long - term narrative of the AI arms race, a low - buying strategy can be attempted [1]. Copper - In the short term, copper prices may gradually return to fundamental pricing. Pay attention to changes in CL premium and LME inventory, with the main support level at 97,500 - 98,500 [4]. Zinc - Zinc prices will be mainly volatile in the short term. The support comes from the tightening of domestic zinc mines, and the pressure comes from the expected supply of imported mines and negative feedback from the demand side [9]. Industrial Silicon - The price of industrial silicon is expected to fluctuate, with the main price range between 8,200 - 9,200 yuan/ton. Pay attention to changes in production and demand [12]. Polysilicon - The price of polysilicon is supported at 48,000 yuan/ton. In the cooling cycle, it is recommended to wait and see. Downstream enterprises can consider hedging according to orders [13]. Nickel - The nickel market is expected to be in a wide - range oscillation, with the main reference range at 138,000 - 148,000 [14]. Stainless Steel - Stainless steel is expected to oscillate in the short term, with the main reference range at 13,800 - 14,500. Pay attention to mine - end news and downstream stocking [16]. Aluminum - Aluminum prices are expected to oscillate widely around the industry's cash cost line. The main contract reference range is 23,000 - 25,000 yuan/ton [18]. Lithium Carbonate - The short - term lithium carbonate price may be adjusted widely, with the main reference range at 140,000 - 150,000 yuan/ton. Short - term unilateral trading within the range is recommended [19]. Aluminum Alloy - The price of aluminum alloy ADC12 is expected to maintain a high - level oscillation in the short term, with the main reference range at 22,000 - 24,000 yuan/ton [21]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Tin - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 tin price decreased by 5.86% to 389,800 yuan/ton; SMM 1 tin premium increased by 33.33% to 200 yuan/ton [1]. - **Fundamentals**: In November, the import of tin ore increased by 29.81% month - on - month; in December, the production of SMM refined tin decreased by 0.06% [1]. - **Inventory**: SHEF inventory increased by 37.69% week - on - week; social inventory increased by 36.07% [1]. Copper - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper price decreased by 0.90% to 100,940 yuan/ton; the refined - scrap price difference increased by 1.58% [3]. - **Fundamentals**: In December, the production of electrolytic copper increased by 6.80% month - on - month; in November, the import volume decreased by 3.90% [3]. - **Inventory**: Domestic social inventory increased by 12.27% week - on - week; LME inventory increased by 2.68% day - on - day [4][6]. Zinc - **Price and Basis**: SMM 0 zinc ingot price decreased by 1.53% to 24,420 yuan/ton; the premium increased by 10 yuan/ton [9]. - **Fundamentals**: In December, the production of refined zinc decreased by 7.24% month - on - month; in November, the export volume increased by 402.59% [9]. - **Inventory**: China's seven - region social inventory of zinc ingots increased by 3.13% week - on - week; LME inventory decreased by 1.38% day - on - day [9]. Industrial Silicon - **Price and Basis**: The price of East China oxygen - passing SI5530 industrial silicon remained unchanged at 9,250 yuan/ton; the basis decreased by 37.21% [12]. - **Fundamentals**: In December, the national production of industrial silicon decreased by 1.15% month - on - month; Xinjiang's production increased by 6.46% [12]. - **Inventory**: Xinjiang's inventory increased by 2.91% month - on - month; social inventory increased by 0.54% week - on - week [12]. Polysilicon - **Price and Basis**: The average price of N - type polysilicon increased by 0.27% to 55,000 yuan/ton; the basis decreased by 3.33% [13]. - **Fundamentals**: In December, the production of polysilicon increased by 0.79% month - on - month; the import volume decreased by 27.05% [13]. - **Inventory**: Polysilicon inventory increased by 6.29% week - on - week; silicon wafer inventory decreased by 5.53% [13]. Nickel - **Price and Basis**: The price of SMM 1 electrolytic nickel decreased by 2.31% to 145,900 yuan/ton; the premium of 1 Jinchuan nickel increased by 20.77% [14]. - **Fundamentals**: In December, China's refined nickel production decreased by 9.38% month - on - month; the import volume increased by 30.08% [14]. - **Inventory**: SHFE inventory increased by 3.28% week - on - week; social inventory increased by 4.04% [14]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Basis**: The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) decreased by 0.35% to 14,300 yuan/ton; the premium decreased by 32.65% [16]. - **Fundamentals**: In December, China's 300 - series stainless steel crude steel production decreased by 2.50% month - on - month; the export volume increased by 13.18% [16]. - **Inventory**: The 300 - series social inventory (Wuxi + Foshan) decreased by 1.47% week - on - week; SHFE warehouse receipts remained unchanged [16]. Aluminum - **Price and Basis**: The price of SMM A00 aluminum decreased by 0.67% to 23,870 yuan/ton; the premium increased by 20 yuan/ton [18]. - **Fundamentals**: In December, the production of alumina increased by 1.08% month - on - month; the import volume of electrolytic aluminum decreased by 40.83% in November [18]. - **Inventory**: China's electrolytic aluminum social inventory increased by 2.60% week - on - week; LME inventory decreased by 0.61% day - on - day [18]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Basis**: The average price of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 4.43% to 151,000 yuan/ton; the basis decreased by 68.31% [19]. - **Fundamentals**: In December, the production of lithium carbonate increased by 4.04% month - on - month; the demand decreased by 2.50% [19]. - **Inventory**: In December, the total inventory of lithium carbonate decreased by 12.23% month - on - month; the downstream inventory decreased by 7.21% [19]. Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Basis**: The price of SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 remained unchanged at 23,900 yuan/ton; the refined - scrap price difference in Foshan decreased by 6.12% [21]. - **Fundamentals**: In December, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots decreased by 6.16% month - on - month; the production of primary aluminum alloy ingots increased by 0.46% [21]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory of recycled aluminum alloy ingots decreased by 1.41% week - on - week; the daily inventory in Foshan decreased by 0.76% [21].

Group 1 - The GBP/USD exchange rate has shown mild increases and is currently stable around 1.3430, with market focus on upcoming UK labor market data [1] - The International Labour Organization (ILO) forecasts a decrease in the unemployment rate from 5.1% to 5%, the lowest level since early 2021, which could support the GBP if realized [3] - Average wage growth is expected to slow from 4.7% to 4.6%, which may raise market caution regarding the strength of the UK economic recovery amid ongoing inflation pressures [3] Group 2 - The GBP/USD exchange rate is also influenced by international trade tensions, particularly due to US tariffs on European goods announced by President Trump, which have led to increased pressure on the USD [3] - The uncertainty from trade tensions may create downward risks for the USD, potentially providing upward momentum for the GBP [3] - Despite trade pressures, strong performance in the US labor market data may support the USD, with Federal Reserve officials indicating limited urgency for further rate cuts without clearer inflation evidence [4] Group 3 - Morgan Stanley analysts have adjusted their expectations for Fed rate cuts, now predicting cuts in June and September 2026, which alleviates downward pressure on the USD and may allow it to remain stable or strengthen slightly [4]

【最新黄金t+d行情解析】 黄金t+d(AU(t+d))于2026年1月20日收盘报1047.60元/克，日内上涨0.69%，最高触及1048.50元/克，站稳 1040元/克关键支撑，延续强势上行趋势。日线级别呈现多头排列，价格持续运行于布林带上轨， MACD红柱稳定放大，RSI维持在67附近，未现超买钝化，量能温和放大，确认趋势动能坚实。驱动因 素包括国际金价突破4670美元/盎司、全球央行持续购金(2026年预期购金超950吨)、美联储降息预期强 化及地缘风险升温。短期支撑位1040–1042元/克，阻力位上看1050–1055元/克，突破后有望挑战1060元/ 克心理关口。 【要闻速递】 欧盟委员会主席冯德莱恩19日在达沃斯论坛会见美国国会两党代表团时强调，美方须明确尊重格陵兰岛 和丹麦主权，此为跨大西洋关系关键。她表示欧盟愿继续与美、北约及盟友在丹麦合作下推进共同安全 利益，并指出加征关税与欧美经贸共同利益相悖。 摘要今日周二(1月20日)亚盘时段，黄金T+D目前交投于1045元附近，截至发稿，黄金T+D暂报1045.18 元/克，涨幅0.46%，最高触及1048.50元/克，最低下探1042.74 ...

Group 1 - International gold prices surged past $4,690 per ounce, while domestic gold jewelry prices reached 1,451 yuan per gram, with a pendant's premium increasing by nearly 20,000 yuan in a single day [1] - Silver prices experienced a dramatic increase of over 5% in one day, reaching $94.7, with a staggering 82% rise over the past 50 days [1] - The gold-silver ratio has halved to a 13-year low, indicating a significant market reaction [1] Group 2 - The recent price surge is attributed to a combination of geopolitical conflicts, expectations of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, and industrial demand, particularly in the context of Middle Eastern tensions and the Trump tariff war raising risk aversion [1] - Central banks have been increasing gold reserves for 18 consecutive months, with significant purchases from China and India, leading to a squeeze in the London spot market [1] - The consumer market is facing challenges, with wedding jewelry costs doubling, prompting couples to consider renting jewelry instead [3] Group 3 - Investment dynamics are polarized, with gold hoarders earning millions while leveraged silver traders face significant losses, leading banks to issue warnings about risks [3] - Institutional opinions are divided, with UBS predicting gold could reach $5,000, while Goldman Sachs warns of a potential 20% correction in silver prices [3] - Experts advise caution for ordinary investors, recommending specific strategies for gold and silver investments, highlighting the volatility of silver akin to historical downturns [3]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|贵⾦属策略⽇报 2026-1-20 美欧关税担忧升温，⾦银价格再创新⾼ 央视新闻报导，特朗普威胁对⼋个反对其收购格陵兰岛计划的欧洲国家征 收关税；市场对欧洲发起关税反制的预期升温，推升贵⾦属避险需求⾛ 强，⽇内⾦银价格双双创历史新⾼。美欧关税忧虑持续发酵与地缘⻛险交 织下，短期⻩⾦或震荡偏强运⾏。⽩银受美欧关税担忧、及关键矿产关税 暂缓等多重影响，短期或⾼位震荡、警惕波动率⾼位回落⻛险。 黄金观点： 逻辑：受美欧关税升级担忧提振避险需求，万得数据显示，日内纽约 金价一度触及4698美元/盎司的新高。万得和CME数据显示，近期美国 公布的就业、零售及通胀等数据表现韧性，年内美联储降息预期推迟 至6月；而美欧关税冲突持续发酵，预计金价短线震荡偏强。短期需 关注1月20日美国最高法院对特朗普关税案裁决、1月22日将公布的 11月核心PCE数据和GDP数据、及1月下旬联储新主席提名等。 展望：黄金中长期上涨驱动不改。 白银观点： 逻辑：银价强势上涨，万得数据显示，日内纽约银价涨幅近6%，SHFE 银价涨幅近5%，受特朗普威胁对欧洲八国加征关税、及欧洲反制情 ...

日线图上，上周黄金冲高遇阻后，走势高位震荡调整，本周一金价再创历史新高，短期表现强势。黄金下方支撑，可以关 注周一黄金冲高遇阻后的回落低点4652美元，其次周一黄金跳空高开时的回落低点4618美元，这里也是当前5日均线位置； 黄金上方压力，主要关注周一创造的历史高点4690美元，若向上突破，关注日线布林带上轨位置4730美元附近。5日均线与 MACD指标金叉向上，KDJ指标金叉向上，RSI指标金叉小幅下拐，短期技术面显示多方占优，黄金存在进一步上涨的可 能。 黄金日内参考：美国夺取格陵兰岛，不给就加征关税，市场避险情绪快速升温，对黄金上涨形成重要支撑。操作上建议震 荡思路对待，下方支撑关注4652美元，其次4618美元，上方压力关注4690美元，其次4730美元。 Wolfinance星级分析师黄力晨认为，上周黄金再创历史新高后，我们认为美联储降息预期、地缘紧张局势与央行强劲买盘， 仍对黄金形成重要支撑，此后金价虽然遇阻调整，但回落十分有限，到了本周一，黄金继续上涨，再创历史新高，地缘风 险是推动金价冲高的重要原因。具体来看，美国图谋格陵兰岛的风波在近期持续升级，上周末美国总统特朗普公布了其夺 取格陵兰岛控制 ...

中国期货每日简报 桂晨曦 Gui Chenxi 从业资格号 Qualification No：F3023159 投资咨询号 Consulting No.：Z0013632 CITIC Futures International Service Platform：https://internationalservice.citicsf.com Investment consulting business qualification：CSRC License [2012] No. 669 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669 号 中 信 期 货 国 际 化 研 究 | 中 信 期 货 研 究 所 International 中信期货国际化研究 | CITIC Futures International Research 2024 202-6/01/ 10-0920 China Futures Daily Note 摘要 Abstract Macro News: China's GDP Surpassed 140 Trillion Yuan in 2025, Growing by 5.0%。 Futures ...